Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 8–11 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.7% 19.6–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 19.0–22.5% 18.5–23.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.8% 7.9–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.8% 4.2–5.4% 4.1–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 157 149–165 146–167 144–170 140–173
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 153 145–162 144–163 142–165 138–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 109–123 107–126 105–128 103–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 115 106–121 104–122 103–125 99–128
Die Linke 69 73 65–79 64–79 63–80 60–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 59 55–65 54–68 53–69 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 31–41 30–42 29–43 28–46

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.3% 99.7%  
141 0.3% 99.4%  
142 0.4% 99.1%  
143 0.5% 98.7%  
144 0.6% 98%  
145 1.1% 97%  
146 3% 96%  
147 2% 94%  
148 1.2% 91%  
149 5% 90%  
150 1.0% 86%  
151 3% 85%  
152 2% 81%  
153 7% 79%  
154 11% 72%  
155 5% 61%  
156 5% 57%  
157 5% 52% Median
158 9% 47%  
159 3% 38%  
160 3% 35%  
161 4% 33%  
162 8% 29%  
163 7% 21%  
164 4% 14%  
165 2% 10%  
166 1.5% 8%  
167 2% 7%  
168 0.9% 5%  
169 0.7% 4%  
170 2% 3%  
171 0.3% 2%  
172 0.8% 1.3%  
173 0.1% 0.6%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.2% 0.4%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.7%  
139 0.4% 99.4%  
140 0.7% 99.0%  
141 0.7% 98%  
142 2% 98%  
143 0.8% 96%  
144 4% 95%  
145 2% 91%  
146 2% 90%  
147 0.9% 88%  
148 10% 87%  
149 12% 77%  
150 2% 65%  
151 3% 63%  
152 8% 60%  
153 8% 52% Median
154 2% 44%  
155 3% 42%  
156 5% 39%  
157 6% 34%  
158 1.0% 28%  
159 7% 27%  
160 5% 20%  
161 0.9% 15%  
162 8% 14%  
163 2% 6%  
164 0.9% 4%  
165 1.0% 3%  
166 0.3% 2%  
167 0.2% 2%  
168 0.3% 2%  
169 0.3% 2%  
170 0.4% 1.4%  
171 0.4% 1.0%  
172 0.3% 0.6%  
173 0.2% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.5% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.1%  
105 2% 98%  
106 0.5% 97%  
107 4% 96%  
108 0.9% 92%  
109 5% 91%  
110 4% 87%  
111 6% 83%  
112 2% 77%  
113 4% 75%  
114 5% 72%  
115 11% 67%  
116 4% 56%  
117 5% 52% Median
118 10% 47%  
119 4% 38%  
120 11% 34%  
121 1.4% 22%  
122 10% 21%  
123 2% 11%  
124 2% 9%  
125 1.1% 7%  
126 2% 6%  
127 0.3% 4%  
128 1.1% 3%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.2%  
132 0.4% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.5% 99.4%  
101 0.7% 98.9%  
102 0.4% 98%  
103 3% 98%  
104 2% 95%  
105 3% 94%  
106 2% 91%  
107 2% 89%  
108 6% 86%  
109 2% 80%  
110 10% 78%  
111 3% 68%  
112 6% 65%  
113 5% 59%  
114 2% 55%  
115 19% 52% Median
116 3% 33%  
117 4% 31%  
118 8% 27%  
119 2% 19%  
120 3% 17%  
121 4% 14%  
122 6% 10%  
123 1.0% 4%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.3% 1.4%  
127 0.1% 1.1%  
128 0.7% 1.0%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.3%  
62 0.6% 98%  
63 0.3% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 7% 95%  
66 1.2% 88%  
67 0.6% 87%  
68 2% 86%  
69 12% 84% Last Result
70 11% 73%  
71 6% 62%  
72 0.6% 56%  
73 10% 55% Median
74 11% 46%  
75 16% 35%  
76 2% 19%  
77 0.9% 16%  
78 4% 15%  
79 7% 12%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.2% 2%  
82 0.2% 2%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.0%  
52 1.1% 98.6%  
53 0.5% 98%  
54 4% 97%  
55 8% 93%  
56 8% 85%  
57 7% 77%  
58 5% 70%  
59 18% 65% Median
60 7% 47%  
61 7% 41%  
62 7% 34%  
63 12% 27%  
64 5% 15%  
65 1.4% 10%  
66 2% 9%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.2% 3%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.2% 1.1%  
73 0.7% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 2% 97%  
31 7% 95%  
32 3% 88%  
33 4% 85%  
34 10% 81%  
35 6% 70%  
36 28% 65% Median
37 8% 36%  
38 5% 28%  
39 3% 22%  
40 3% 20%  
41 10% 17%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.3% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 1.0%  
46 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 463 100% 454–473 452–476 449–479 443–481
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 408 100% 397–418 395–420 391–421 387–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 370 98% 360–379 357–382 355–384 349–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 92% 356–377 354–379 351–382 347–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 347 15% 338–357 335–361 331–363 327–366
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 8% 332–353 330–355 327–358 323–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 329 0.5% 323–336 321–346 319–349 314–354
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 309 0% 299–319 297–323 294–325 290–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 308 0% 297–316 294–319 291–321 285–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 262–280 258–282 256–285 253–291
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 253 0% 242–264 240–265 237–268 234–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 179–197 178–201 176–203 170–207
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 176 0% 168–184 167–187 165–190 162–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
439 0.1% 100%  
440 0.1% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.8%  
442 0.1% 99.7%  
443 0.1% 99.6%  
444 0.2% 99.5%  
445 0.2% 99.2%  
446 0.2% 99.1%  
447 0.6% 98.8%  
448 0.6% 98%  
449 0.4% 98%  
450 1.0% 97%  
451 0.6% 96%  
452 2% 96%  
453 2% 94%  
454 4% 92%  
455 1.1% 88%  
456 12% 86%  
457 2% 75%  
458 4% 73%  
459 1.5% 69%  
460 6% 68%  
461 4% 62%  
462 5% 58%  
463 7% 53% Median
464 5% 46%  
465 4% 41%  
466 4% 38% Last Result
467 6% 34%  
468 5% 28%  
469 2% 23%  
470 4% 21%  
471 3% 17%  
472 3% 14%  
473 0.8% 10%  
474 1.0% 9%  
475 3% 9%  
476 1.2% 6%  
477 1.3% 5%  
478 0.6% 3%  
479 1.1% 3%  
480 0.4% 2%  
481 0.6% 1.1%  
482 0.1% 0.5%  
483 0.2% 0.4%  
484 0% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.3% 99.7%  
388 0.4% 99.3%  
389 0.9% 99.0%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.2% 98%  
392 0.2% 97%  
393 0.4% 97% Last Result
394 0.4% 97%  
395 3% 96%  
396 2% 93%  
397 3% 91%  
398 4% 89%  
399 2% 85%  
400 9% 84%  
401 12% 74%  
402 0.9% 62%  
403 2% 61%  
404 1.1% 59%  
405 2% 58% Median
406 1.1% 57%  
407 4% 55%  
408 9% 51%  
409 9% 42%  
410 5% 33%  
411 6% 28%  
412 2% 22%  
413 5% 20%  
414 1.1% 15%  
415 0.9% 14%  
416 1.0% 13%  
417 0.4% 12%  
418 2% 12%  
419 1.0% 9%  
420 5% 8%  
421 1.4% 4%  
422 0.6% 2%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.4% 1.2%  
425 0.1% 0.8%  
426 0.2% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.6% 99.6%  
350 0.2% 99.0%  
351 0.2% 98.8%  
352 0.2% 98.6%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.1% 98%  
355 0.4% 98% Majority
356 1.1% 97%  
357 2% 96%  
358 2% 95%  
359 0.8% 92%  
360 4% 91%  
361 4% 87%  
362 3% 83%  
363 2% 80%  
364 3% 78%  
365 11% 74%  
366 1.1% 63%  
367 4% 62%  
368 2% 58%  
369 5% 56% Median
370 1.0% 50%  
371 10% 49%  
372 2% 39%  
373 9% 37%  
374 0.5% 28%  
375 4% 28%  
376 2% 24%  
377 6% 22%  
378 1.1% 16%  
379 7% 15%  
380 1.1% 9%  
381 2% 7%  
382 1.0% 5%  
383 1.1% 4%  
384 0.9% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0.3% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.6%  
391 0.2% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.3% 99.5%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.8% 99.1%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.9% 98%  
352 0.4% 97%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 5% 96%  
355 1.1% 92% Majority
356 2% 91%  
357 2% 88%  
358 2% 87%  
359 2% 85%  
360 2% 82%  
361 4% 81%  
362 5% 77%  
363 3% 72%  
364 5% 68%  
365 6% 64%  
366 4% 58%  
367 4% 54% Median
368 11% 50%  
369 6% 39%  
370 3% 33%  
371 3% 30%  
372 6% 27%  
373 0.8% 21%  
374 5% 20%  
375 3% 15%  
376 1.1% 12%  
377 4% 11%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 0.7% 6%  
380 0.6% 5%  
381 0.9% 4%  
382 0.7% 3%  
383 0.8% 2%  
384 0.7% 2%  
385 0.1% 1.0%  
386 0.6% 0.9%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.2% 99.9%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0% 99.5%  
327 0.4% 99.5%  
328 0.4% 99.1%  
329 0.3% 98.7%  
330 0.8% 98%  
331 0.3% 98%  
332 0.3% 97%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 0.3% 96%  
335 1.0% 96%  
336 0.8% 95%  
337 2% 94%  
338 11% 92%  
339 5% 81%  
340 1.0% 76%  
341 10% 75%  
342 7% 65%  
343 1.5% 58%  
344 0.9% 57%  
345 0.6% 56%  
346 3% 55% Median
347 6% 52%  
348 0.5% 46%  
349 4% 45%  
350 6% 41%  
351 4% 35%  
352 7% 31%  
353 7% 24%  
354 1.5% 17%  
355 3% 15% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 0.6% 11%  
358 0.3% 10%  
359 0.2% 10%  
360 2% 9%  
361 4% 7%  
362 0.1% 3%  
363 1.2% 3%  
364 0.8% 2%  
365 0.1% 0.8%  
366 0.4% 0.7%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.6% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.1%  
325 0.7% 99.0%  
326 0.8% 98%  
327 0.7% 98%  
328 0.9% 97%  
329 0.6% 96%  
330 0.7% 95%  
331 1.3% 94%  
332 4% 93%  
333 1.1% 89%  
334 3% 88%  
335 5% 85%  
336 0.8% 80%  
337 6% 79%  
338 3% 73%  
339 3% 70%  
340 6% 67%  
341 11% 61%  
342 4% 50%  
343 4% 46% Median
344 6% 42%  
345 5% 36%  
346 3% 32%  
347 5% 28%  
348 4% 23%  
349 2% 19%  
350 2% 18%  
351 2% 15%  
352 2% 13%  
353 2% 12%  
354 1.1% 9%  
355 5% 8% Majority
356 0.3% 4%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.9% 3%  
359 0.6% 2%  
360 0.8% 2%  
361 0.2% 0.9%  
362 0.3% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.2% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0% 99.6%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0% 99.5%  
315 0% 99.5%  
316 0.6% 99.5%  
317 0.6% 98.9%  
318 0.3% 98%  
319 0.7% 98%  
320 2% 97%  
321 3% 96%  
322 2% 93%  
323 9% 91%  
324 2% 83%  
325 5% 81%  
326 6% 76%  
327 9% 70%  
328 1.2% 61%  
329 12% 60% Median
330 15% 48%  
331 1.0% 33%  
332 6% 32%  
333 6% 26%  
334 2% 20%  
335 4% 18%  
336 5% 15%  
337 0.6% 10%  
338 0.3% 9%  
339 1.3% 9%  
340 0.4% 7%  
341 0.2% 7%  
342 0.6% 7%  
343 0.6% 6%  
344 0.1% 6%  
345 0.3% 6%  
346 0.5% 5%  
347 0.8% 5%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 2% 4%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.1% 2%  
352 0.5% 1.4%  
353 0.2% 0.9%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.5% Majority
356 0.3% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.5% 99.3%  
292 0.8% 98.9%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 2% 96%  
298 4% 95%  
299 2% 91%  
300 2% 88%  
301 2% 87%  
302 5% 85%  
303 3% 79%  
304 2% 77%  
305 2% 75%  
306 2% 73%  
307 4% 71%  
308 15% 67%  
309 5% 52%  
310 6% 47% Median
311 3% 41%  
312 2% 38%  
313 4% 37%  
314 8% 32%  
315 1.2% 24%  
316 1.2% 23%  
317 1.4% 22%  
318 8% 20%  
319 4% 12%  
320 2% 9%  
321 0.4% 7%  
322 0.9% 6%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 2% 4%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.6% 1.5%  
329 0.3% 0.9%  
330 0.3% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0.1% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.3% 99.4%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 99.0%  
289 0.7% 98.7%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 1.0% 97%  
293 0.6% 96%  
294 2% 96%  
295 2% 94%  
296 2% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 1.2% 89%  
299 4% 87%  
300 1.1% 84%  
301 2% 83%  
302 8% 80%  
303 2% 72%  
304 4% 69%  
305 10% 66%  
306 3% 56%  
307 2% 53%  
308 2% 51% Median
309 13% 49%  
310 6% 36%  
311 4% 30%  
312 3% 26%  
313 8% 23%  
314 3% 16%  
315 1.4% 13%  
316 2% 11%  
317 1.0% 9%  
318 2% 8%  
319 3% 7%  
320 0.8% 4%  
321 1.2% 3%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.6% 1.2%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0.3% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.5% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.1%  
255 0.8% 98.9%  
256 0.7% 98%  
257 2% 97%  
258 2% 95%  
259 0.9% 94%  
260 1.1% 93%  
261 1.0% 92%  
262 2% 91%  
263 5% 89%  
264 10% 84%  
265 2% 74%  
266 8% 72%  
267 4% 64%  
268 4% 60%  
269 3% 56%  
270 4% 54% Median
271 11% 49%  
272 4% 38%  
273 5% 34%  
274 8% 30%  
275 3% 22%  
276 1.2% 19%  
277 2% 18%  
278 3% 16%  
279 2% 13%  
280 2% 11%  
281 4% 10%  
282 0.8% 5%  
283 0.5% 4%  
284 0.6% 4%  
285 0.9% 3%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.4% 1.0%  
290 0.1% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0.1% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.2% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0.7% 99.5%  
236 0.3% 98.8%  
237 1.0% 98%  
238 0.4% 97%  
239 0.1% 97%  
240 2% 97%  
241 3% 95%  
242 3% 92%  
243 0.9% 90%  
244 0.9% 89%  
245 4% 88%  
246 6% 84%  
247 0.9% 78%  
248 1.3% 77%  
249 6% 76%  
250 5% 70%  
251 10% 65%  
252 1.4% 55% Median
253 9% 54%  
254 3% 45%  
255 7% 42%  
256 2% 34%  
257 4% 32%  
258 5% 28%  
259 6% 23%  
260 1.4% 18%  
261 3% 16%  
262 1.3% 14%  
263 1.2% 12%  
264 5% 11%  
265 1.1% 6%  
266 1.2% 4%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.8% 2%  
270 0.4% 1.4%  
271 0.1% 1.0%  
272 0.5% 0.9%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0.1% 100%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.4% 99.7%  
171 0.1% 99.3%  
172 0.3% 99.2%  
173 0.2% 98.9%  
174 0.5% 98.7%  
175 0.6% 98%  
176 0.9% 98%  
177 2% 97%  
178 3% 95%  
179 5% 93%  
180 3% 87%  
181 2% 84%  
182 2% 82%  
183 2% 80%  
184 0.7% 78%  
185 9% 78%  
186 5% 68%  
187 6% 63%  
188 3% 57%  
189 4% 54%  
190 1.5% 50% Median
191 10% 48%  
192 0.9% 39%  
193 19% 38%  
194 0.5% 19%  
195 7% 19%  
196 0.6% 11%  
197 2% 11%  
198 0.8% 9%  
199 2% 8%  
200 2% 7%  
201 2% 5%  
202 0.5% 3%  
203 1.0% 3%  
204 0.3% 2%  
205 0.2% 1.5%  
206 0.7% 1.3%  
207 0.1% 0.6%  
208 0.2% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.7% 99.6%  
163 0.8% 98.9%  
164 0.5% 98%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 3% 96%  
168 7% 93%  
169 1.3% 87%  
170 4% 85%  
171 6% 81%  
172 3% 75%  
173 5% 72%  
174 8% 66%  
175 4% 58%  
176 9% 54% Median
177 2% 45%  
178 3% 43%  
179 5% 39%  
180 4% 35%  
181 15% 31%  
182 1.0% 15%  
183 3% 14%  
184 2% 11%  
185 0.9% 9%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.4% 6%  
188 1.3% 5%  
189 0.6% 3%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.1% 1.2%  
195 0.3% 1.0%  
196 0.1% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.2% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations