Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 7–13 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.3–24.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.6–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.4–15.9% 11.9–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 164 154–175 152–178 149–180 145–185
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–144 123–148 122–150 116–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 118–137 116–139 114–141 109–146
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 97–114 94–116 93–119 89–123
Die Linke 69 76 68–83 66–86 65–87 62–90
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–67 52–69 50–71 48–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–46 35–48 34–50 31–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.4% 99.1%  
148 0.5% 98.7%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.2% 97%  
152 2% 95%  
153 2% 94%  
154 2% 92%  
155 2% 90%  
156 3% 88%  
157 3% 85%  
158 4% 82%  
159 4% 78%  
160 4% 73%  
161 5% 69%  
162 5% 64%  
163 4% 59%  
164 6% 56% Median
165 4% 49%  
166 5% 45%  
167 6% 40%  
168 3% 34%  
169 5% 31%  
170 4% 26%  
171 4% 22%  
172 3% 19%  
173 3% 16%  
174 3% 14%  
175 2% 11%  
176 2% 9%  
177 1.2% 6%  
178 1.2% 5%  
179 1.1% 4%  
180 0.8% 3%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.2%  
184 0.2% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.5%  
118 0.2% 99.2%  
119 0.4% 98.9%  
120 0.5% 98.6%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 1.0% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 2% 95%  
125 3% 92%  
126 3% 90%  
127 3% 87%  
128 3% 84%  
129 3% 82%  
130 4% 78%  
131 6% 75%  
132 6% 69%  
133 6% 62%  
134 6% 56% Median
135 5% 50%  
136 4% 45%  
137 4% 41%  
138 4% 37%  
139 5% 33%  
140 5% 28%  
141 6% 23%  
142 3% 17%  
143 3% 15%  
144 2% 12%  
145 2% 10%  
146 1.3% 8%  
147 2% 7%  
148 1.5% 5%  
149 0.8% 4%  
150 1.2% 3%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.3%  
153 0.2% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.5% 99.2%  
112 0.5% 98.8%  
113 0.6% 98%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 1.1% 97%  
116 2% 96%  
117 2% 93%  
118 3% 92%  
119 4% 89%  
120 3% 85%  
121 3% 82%  
122 4% 79%  
123 5% 75%  
124 4% 70%  
125 7% 66%  
126 6% 59%  
127 5% 53% Median
128 5% 48%  
129 5% 43%  
130 5% 38%  
131 6% 33%  
132 4% 27%  
133 5% 23%  
134 4% 19%  
135 2% 15%  
136 2% 13%  
137 3% 10%  
138 1.4% 8%  
139 2% 6%  
140 1.0% 4%  
141 0.7% 3%  
142 0.6% 2%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.2% 1.3%  
145 0.4% 1.1%  
146 0.2% 0.7%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.3%  
91 0.6% 98.9%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 2% 97% Last Result
95 2% 95%  
96 2% 93%  
97 3% 91%  
98 3% 88%  
99 4% 84%  
100 5% 81%  
101 5% 76%  
102 6% 71%  
103 5% 65%  
104 6% 60%  
105 6% 54% Median
106 7% 48%  
107 5% 42%  
108 5% 36%  
109 5% 31%  
110 5% 26%  
111 4% 22%  
112 3% 18%  
113 3% 14%  
114 3% 11%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.0% 5%  
118 1.0% 4%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.2%  
122 0.2% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.6%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 0.9% 98.8%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 3% 90%  
69 3% 87% Last Result
70 4% 84%  
71 4% 79%  
72 4% 76%  
73 6% 71%  
74 6% 65%  
75 9% 59%  
76 8% 50% Median
77 8% 43%  
78 8% 34%  
79 5% 27%  
80 4% 22%  
81 3% 17%  
82 3% 14%  
83 2% 11%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 7%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.1%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 5% 86%  
56 6% 81%  
57 6% 75%  
58 7% 69%  
59 7% 62%  
60 7% 54% Median
61 7% 47%  
62 7% 40%  
63 6% 33%  
64 7% 27%  
65 5% 20%  
66 4% 15%  
67 3% 11%  
68 2% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.4%  
33 1.1% 98.6%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 95%  
36 4% 92%  
37 8% 88%  
38 6% 80%  
39 10% 75%  
40 9% 64%  
41 10% 56% Median
42 9% 46%  
43 8% 36%  
44 8% 29%  
45 5% 20%  
46 5% 15% Last Result
47 3% 10%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 468 100% 457–479 454–483 451–485 445–490
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 401 100% 389–413 386–416 383–419 377–425
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 394 100% 381–406 379–408 375–412 369–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 372 97% 359–382 356–386 354–389 348–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 341 7% 329–353 326–356 323–359 317–365
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 337 3% 327–350 323–353 320–355 314–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 333 1.0% 321–345 318–348 315–351 309–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 323 0% 311–335 307–338 305–341 299–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 311 0% 299–323 296–327 293–329 287–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 266 0% 254–278 251–281 248–284 243–289
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 251–274 248–277 245–280 240–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 203 0% 192–214 189–217 186–219 181–225
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 187 0% 177–198 174–201 171–204 167–209

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.1% 99.7%  
445 0.2% 99.6%  
446 0.2% 99.4%  
447 0.3% 99.3%  
448 0.5% 99.0%  
449 0.4% 98.5%  
450 0.5% 98%  
451 0.6% 98%  
452 0.8% 97%  
453 1.1% 96%  
454 1.2% 95%  
455 2% 94%  
456 2% 92%  
457 2% 91%  
458 2% 88%  
459 2% 86%  
460 3% 84%  
461 4% 80%  
462 2% 77%  
463 3% 74%  
464 6% 71%  
465 4% 65%  
466 4% 61% Last Result, Median
467 4% 57%  
468 4% 53%  
469 5% 48%  
470 4% 44%  
471 4% 40%  
472 4% 36%  
473 5% 31%  
474 4% 27%  
475 3% 23%  
476 3% 20%  
477 2% 17%  
478 2% 15%  
479 2% 12%  
480 2% 10%  
481 1.1% 8%  
482 1.2% 7%  
483 1.4% 5%  
484 0.7% 4%  
485 0.9% 3%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.4% 2%  
488 0.4% 1.4%  
489 0.3% 1.1%  
490 0.2% 0.7%  
491 0.1% 0.5%  
492 0.1% 0.4%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0.1% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.6%  
378 0.2% 99.5%  
379 0.2% 99.3%  
380 0.4% 99.1%  
381 0.3% 98.7%  
382 0.5% 98%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.8% 97%  
385 0.8% 96%  
386 1.1% 96%  
387 1.4% 95%  
388 1.5% 93%  
389 3% 92%  
390 2% 89%  
391 2% 87%  
392 3% 85%  
393 3% 81% Last Result
394 3% 78%  
395 3% 75%  
396 4% 72%  
397 4% 68%  
398 4% 64%  
399 5% 61% Median
400 4% 56%  
401 4% 52%  
402 4% 48%  
403 3% 44%  
404 5% 41%  
405 4% 36%  
406 4% 32%  
407 3% 28%  
408 3% 24%  
409 3% 21%  
410 2% 18%  
411 3% 16%  
412 2% 13%  
413 2% 11%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.5% 7%  
416 1.0% 6%  
417 1.0% 5%  
418 0.9% 4%  
419 0.6% 3%  
420 0.6% 2%  
421 0.3% 2%  
422 0.4% 1.3%  
423 0.3% 1.0%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0.2% 99.8%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.1% 99.4%  
371 0.2% 99.3%  
372 0.4% 99.1%  
373 0.4% 98.7%  
374 0.2% 98%  
375 0.8% 98%  
376 1.0% 97%  
377 0.6% 96%  
378 0.5% 96%  
379 2% 95%  
380 2% 93%  
381 0.8% 91%  
382 2% 90%  
383 3% 88%  
384 4% 85%  
385 1.2% 81%  
386 2% 80%  
387 7% 78%  
388 2% 71%  
389 2% 69%  
390 5% 66%  
391 7% 62%  
392 2% 55% Median
393 2% 53%  
394 6% 51%  
395 5% 45%  
396 2% 40%  
397 3% 37%  
398 6% 34%  
399 2% 28%  
400 2% 26%  
401 6% 24%  
402 4% 18%  
403 1.3% 15%  
404 1.3% 13%  
405 2% 12%  
406 3% 10%  
407 0.6% 7%  
408 1.4% 6%  
409 1.2% 5%  
410 0.6% 4%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.6% 3%  
413 0.8% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.2%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.2% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.3%  
351 0.4% 99.1%  
352 0.3% 98.7%  
353 0.6% 98%  
354 0.7% 98%  
355 1.1% 97% Majority
356 1.3% 96%  
357 2% 94%  
358 3% 93%  
359 3% 90%  
360 2% 87%  
361 3% 85%  
362 3% 82%  
363 3% 79%  
364 2% 76%  
365 3% 73%  
366 2% 70%  
367 3% 67%  
368 2% 64%  
369 3% 62%  
370 3% 59% Median
371 3% 56%  
372 4% 52%  
373 4% 49%  
374 4% 45%  
375 4% 41%  
376 5% 37%  
377 4% 32%  
378 3% 28%  
379 4% 25%  
380 5% 20%  
381 3% 15%  
382 3% 13%  
383 2% 10%  
384 2% 8%  
385 0.8% 6%  
386 1.3% 5%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.7% 3%  
389 0.5% 3%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.4%  
393 0.2% 1.1%  
394 0.2% 0.9%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.1%  
320 0.4% 98.9%  
321 0.4% 98.5%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.6% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 1.2% 95%  
327 1.4% 94%  
328 2% 93%  
329 2% 91%  
330 2% 89%  
331 3% 87%  
332 4% 84%  
333 2% 80%  
334 3% 78%  
335 4% 75%  
336 4% 71%  
337 4% 67%  
338 3% 63%  
339 4% 60% Median
340 4% 55%  
341 3% 51%  
342 5% 48%  
343 4% 43%  
344 4% 39%  
345 3% 35%  
346 4% 31%  
347 4% 28%  
348 3% 24%  
349 3% 20%  
350 3% 17%  
351 2% 15%  
352 3% 13%  
353 2% 10%  
354 2% 8%  
355 1.5% 7% Majority
356 1.0% 5%  
357 0.8% 4%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.3% 1.3%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.5%  
315 0.2% 99.3%  
316 0.2% 99.1%  
317 0.3% 98.9%  
318 0.2% 98.6%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.5% 98%  
321 0.7% 97%  
322 0.5% 97%  
323 1.3% 96%  
324 0.8% 95%  
325 2% 94%  
326 2% 92%  
327 3% 90%  
328 3% 87%  
329 5% 85%  
330 4% 80%  
331 3% 75%  
332 4% 72%  
333 5% 68%  
334 4% 63%  
335 4% 59%  
336 4% 55%  
337 4% 51% Median
338 3% 48%  
339 3% 44%  
340 3% 41%  
341 2% 38%  
342 3% 36%  
343 2% 33%  
344 3% 30%  
345 2% 27%  
346 3% 24%  
347 3% 21%  
348 3% 18%  
349 2% 15%  
350 3% 13%  
351 3% 10%  
352 2% 7%  
353 1.3% 6%  
354 1.1% 4%  
355 0.7% 3% Majority
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.3%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 99.0%  
313 0.3% 98.6%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.8% 97%  
317 0.9% 96%  
318 1.3% 95%  
319 1.4% 94%  
320 1.5% 93%  
321 2% 91%  
322 2% 89%  
323 2% 87%  
324 3% 85%  
325 3% 82%  
326 4% 79%  
327 3% 75%  
328 3% 72%  
329 4% 69%  
330 3% 65%  
331 5% 61%  
332 4% 56% Median
333 5% 53%  
334 5% 48%  
335 4% 43%  
336 4% 40%  
337 3% 36%  
338 5% 33%  
339 4% 28%  
340 3% 25%  
341 3% 21%  
342 2% 18%  
343 3% 16%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 2% 9%  
347 1.2% 7%  
348 1.2% 6%  
349 1.0% 5%  
350 0.7% 4%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.7% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.5%  
355 0.2% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.2% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
301 0.4% 99.2%  
302 0.3% 98.8%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.9% 97%  
307 1.2% 96%  
308 1.1% 95%  
309 1.5% 94%  
310 2% 92%  
311 2% 90%  
312 3% 88%  
313 2% 86%  
314 3% 83%  
315 3% 80%  
316 4% 77%  
317 4% 74%  
318 4% 70%  
319 4% 66%  
320 4% 62%  
321 3% 58% Median
322 4% 55%  
323 3% 50%  
324 5% 47%  
325 4% 42%  
326 5% 39%  
327 4% 34%  
328 4% 30%  
329 3% 26%  
330 3% 22%  
331 3% 19%  
332 2% 16%  
333 2% 14%  
334 2% 12%  
335 2% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.2% 6%  
338 1.0% 5%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.7% 4%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.4% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 0.9%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0.5% 99.1%  
291 0.3% 98.6%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 1.0% 98%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 0.8% 96%  
296 1.5% 95%  
297 1.2% 94%  
298 1.4% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 2% 89%  
301 2% 87%  
302 3% 85%  
303 3% 82%  
304 2% 79%  
305 5% 77%  
306 4% 72%  
307 2% 67%  
308 5% 65%  
309 5% 61%  
310 3% 55% Median
311 4% 53%  
312 5% 48%  
313 3% 43%  
314 4% 40%  
315 5% 36%  
316 2% 31%  
317 3% 28%  
318 5% 26%  
319 3% 21%  
320 2% 18%  
321 4% 16%  
322 2% 13%  
323 1.4% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.4% 7%  
326 0.7% 6%  
327 1.3% 5%  
328 0.8% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.8% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.3%  
333 0.3% 1.0%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.3% 99.4%  
245 0.2% 99.1%  
246 0.3% 98.9%  
247 0.6% 98.6%  
248 0.7% 98%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 1.1% 97%  
251 0.9% 95%  
252 2% 95%  
253 2% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 3% 88%  
257 3% 85%  
258 3% 82%  
259 4% 79%  
260 4% 76%  
261 3% 72%  
262 4% 69%  
263 4% 64%  
264 4% 60%  
265 4% 56% Median
266 5% 52%  
267 4% 48%  
268 5% 44%  
269 3% 39%  
270 5% 36%  
271 4% 31%  
272 3% 27%  
273 3% 24%  
274 3% 21%  
275 3% 18%  
276 3% 15%  
277 1.4% 12%  
278 2% 11%  
279 2% 8%  
280 1.4% 7%  
281 1.0% 5%  
282 1.0% 4%  
283 0.7% 3%  
284 0.8% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.3% 1.4%  
287 0.3% 1.2%  
288 0.3% 0.9%  
289 0.2% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.2% 99.5%  
241 0.2% 99.3%  
242 0.3% 99.2%  
243 0.3% 98.8%  
244 0.7% 98%  
245 0.7% 98%  
246 1.0% 97%  
247 1.0% 96%  
248 1.0% 95%  
249 1.4% 94%  
250 2% 93%  
251 2% 91%  
252 3% 89%  
253 3% 86%  
254 3% 83%  
255 3% 80%  
256 4% 77%  
257 5% 73%  
258 4% 69%  
259 3% 64%  
260 4% 61%  
261 3% 57% Median
262 5% 54%  
263 4% 49%  
264 4% 45%  
265 4% 40%  
266 4% 36%  
267 3% 32%  
268 4% 29%  
269 3% 26%  
270 4% 22%  
271 3% 19%  
272 2% 16%  
273 3% 13%  
274 1.5% 11%  
275 2% 9%  
276 2% 7%  
277 1.1% 6%  
278 1.0% 5%  
279 0.7% 4%  
280 0.6% 3%  
281 0.5% 2%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.4% 1.1%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0.1% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.2% 99.5%  
183 0.3% 99.3%  
184 0.4% 99.0%  
185 0.5% 98.6%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 0.9% 97%  
188 1.0% 97%  
189 2% 96%  
190 2% 94%  
191 2% 93%  
192 2% 90%  
193 2% 88%  
194 3% 87%  
195 3% 84%  
196 4% 81%  
197 5% 77%  
198 4% 72%  
199 4% 69%  
200 6% 65%  
201 4% 59%  
202 5% 55%  
203 5% 51% Median
204 5% 46%  
205 4% 40%  
206 4% 36%  
207 4% 33%  
208 4% 29%  
209 3% 25%  
210 4% 22%  
211 3% 18%  
212 2% 15%  
213 2% 13%  
214 2% 11%  
215 2% 9%  
216 2% 7%  
217 0.9% 5%  
218 0.8% 4%  
219 1.0% 3%  
220 0.5% 2%  
221 0.4% 2%  
222 0.6% 2% Last Result
223 0.2% 1.0%  
224 0.1% 0.7%  
225 0.2% 0.6%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0.1% 0.2%  
229 0.1% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.6%  
168 0.2% 99.4%  
169 0.4% 99.1%  
170 0.6% 98.7%  
171 0.8% 98%  
172 0.8% 97%  
173 1.0% 97%  
174 1.0% 96%  
175 1.3% 95%  
176 2% 93%  
177 2% 92%  
178 3% 89%  
179 3% 86%  
180 3% 83%  
181 3% 80%  
182 4% 77%  
183 4% 73%  
184 5% 70%  
185 5% 64%  
186 5% 60%  
187 6% 55% Median
188 5% 49%  
189 4% 44%  
190 4% 40%  
191 4% 36%  
192 4% 32%  
193 4% 28%  
194 4% 24%  
195 4% 20%  
196 3% 16%  
197 2% 13%  
198 2% 11%  
199 1.4% 8%  
200 1.2% 7%  
201 1.0% 6%  
202 1.4% 5%  
203 0.6% 3%  
204 0.7% 3%  
205 0.4% 2%  
206 0.5% 2%  
207 0.3% 1.2%  
208 0.2% 0.9%  
209 0.2% 0.7%  
210 0.2% 0.5%  
211 0.1% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations