Opinion Poll by Forsa, 11–15 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.4% 19.6–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.8–23.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 163 153–171 151–174 149–176 145–181
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 137–154 134–156 133–159 128–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 109–124 106–126 105–128 100–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 92–107 91–110 89–112 86–116
Die Linke 69 79 70–84 68–85 68–87 65–92
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 70 63–75 62–77 61–79 57–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–42 32–44 31–45 29–48

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.3%  
147 0.3% 99.0%  
148 1.0% 98.7%  
149 0.5% 98%  
150 1.0% 97%  
151 2% 96%  
152 3% 95%  
153 3% 92%  
154 2% 89%  
155 5% 86%  
156 6% 82%  
157 2% 76%  
158 4% 74%  
159 4% 71%  
160 6% 66%  
161 5% 61%  
162 5% 56%  
163 17% 51% Median
164 3% 34%  
165 3% 31%  
166 7% 28%  
167 2% 21%  
168 2% 19%  
169 3% 17%  
170 1.0% 14%  
171 4% 13%  
172 0.6% 9%  
173 3% 9%  
174 2% 6%  
175 0.6% 4%  
176 1.1% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.5%  
179 0.5% 1.3%  
180 0.1% 0.8%  
181 0.3% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.4% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.4%  
130 0.2% 99.3%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 1.1% 99.0%  
133 3% 98%  
134 3% 95%  
135 0.3% 93%  
136 2% 92%  
137 1.1% 91%  
138 2% 90%  
139 11% 87%  
140 3% 76%  
141 0.9% 73%  
142 2% 73%  
143 9% 71%  
144 20% 62% Median
145 3% 42%  
146 0.5% 38%  
147 6% 38%  
148 2% 32%  
149 6% 30%  
150 6% 23%  
151 3% 17%  
152 0.6% 14%  
153 3% 14%  
154 2% 11%  
155 3% 9%  
156 2% 6%  
157 0.2% 4%  
158 1.2% 4%  
159 0.8% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.3%  
162 0% 0.9%  
163 0.1% 0.9%  
164 0.4% 0.7%  
165 0.2% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.1% 99.5%  
101 0.2% 99.4%  
102 0.2% 99.2%  
103 0.9% 98.9%  
104 0.5% 98%  
105 1.2% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 2% 94%  
108 1.3% 93%  
109 2% 91%  
110 3% 90%  
111 2% 87%  
112 5% 85%  
113 4% 80%  
114 4% 76%  
115 3% 73%  
116 8% 69%  
117 21% 62% Median
118 4% 41%  
119 6% 37%  
120 4% 31%  
121 9% 27%  
122 2% 19%  
123 4% 16%  
124 5% 13%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.2% 5%  
127 0.5% 4%  
128 2% 4%  
129 0.3% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.4%  
131 0.6% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.4% 99.6%  
87 0.6% 99.2%  
88 0.8% 98.5%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 5% 93%  
93 1.3% 88%  
94 2% 87% Last Result
95 6% 85%  
96 3% 78%  
97 18% 75%  
98 2% 58%  
99 3% 55%  
100 9% 52% Median
101 8% 43%  
102 7% 35%  
103 0.7% 28%  
104 3% 27%  
105 6% 24%  
106 5% 18%  
107 4% 13%  
108 1.0% 9%  
109 2% 8%  
110 3% 6%  
111 0.6% 3%  
112 1.1% 3%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.2% 1.4%  
115 0.6% 1.1%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 0.6% 98%  
68 3% 98%  
69 0.7% 95% Last Result
70 5% 94%  
71 1.3% 89%  
72 5% 88%  
73 1.0% 84%  
74 6% 83%  
75 3% 76%  
76 6% 74%  
77 6% 68%  
78 6% 62%  
79 7% 57% Median
80 17% 49%  
81 11% 32%  
82 5% 21%  
83 5% 16%  
84 2% 11%  
85 4% 8%  
86 0.2% 4%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.2% 1.1%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.3%  
59 0.3% 98.8%  
60 0.8% 98.5%  
61 1.2% 98%  
62 5% 97%  
63 2% 91%  
64 7% 89%  
65 5% 83%  
66 3% 78%  
67 7% 75%  
68 9% 69%  
69 5% 60%  
70 19% 55% Median
71 4% 36%  
72 6% 32%  
73 2% 26%  
74 9% 24%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 0.6% 4%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.5% 2% Last Result
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 5% 96%  
33 5% 91%  
34 5% 86%  
35 11% 82%  
36 8% 71%  
37 6% 63%  
38 19% 56% Median
39 7% 38%  
40 14% 31%  
41 3% 17%  
42 4% 14%  
43 5% 10%  
44 1.2% 5%  
45 2% 4%  
46 0.9% 2% Last Result
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 462 100% 452–472 450–475 446–479 440–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 415 100% 403–425 402–428 400–431 395–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 387 100% 374–397 372–401 371–403 366–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 96% 358–380 356–382 353–386 347–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 345 11% 334–355 333–360 330–363 325–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 4% 329–351 327–353 323–356 318–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 331 0.2% 322–341 317–346 316–348 310–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 306–327 303–329 301–333 296–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 289–310 286–313 285–317 279–323
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 270 0% 258–279 256–282 253–286 249–290
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 251–272 249–274 247–277 241–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 197 0% 186–202 180–206 178–209 174–212
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 187 0% 177–195 174–198 171–200 166–203

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.8%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.2% 99.7%  
441 0% 99.5%  
442 0.2% 99.4%  
443 0.2% 99.2%  
444 0.8% 99.1%  
445 0.2% 98%  
446 0.8% 98%  
447 0.8% 97%  
448 0.9% 97%  
449 0.4% 96%  
450 0.4% 95%  
451 4% 95%  
452 2% 90%  
453 2% 88%  
454 0.2% 86%  
455 0.7% 86%  
456 10% 85%  
457 4% 75%  
458 6% 71%  
459 2% 65%  
460 6% 63%  
461 6% 57%  
462 17% 51% Median
463 3% 35%  
464 2% 32%  
465 4% 30%  
466 3% 25% Last Result
467 2% 23%  
468 3% 20%  
469 3% 17%  
470 2% 14%  
471 2% 12%  
472 0.9% 10%  
473 0.6% 9%  
474 3% 9%  
475 1.3% 5%  
476 0.6% 4%  
477 0.3% 3%  
478 0.3% 3%  
479 1.0% 3%  
480 0.7% 2%  
481 0.5% 1.1%  
482 0.1% 0.6%  
483 0.1% 0.5%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.7% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.3% 99.6%  
396 0.3% 99.3%  
397 0.2% 99.0%  
398 0.7% 98.8%  
399 0.2% 98%  
400 1.4% 98%  
401 0.8% 96%  
402 2% 96%  
403 4% 94%  
404 1.2% 89%  
405 3% 88%  
406 7% 85%  
407 1.1% 79%  
408 2% 78%  
409 5% 76%  
410 2% 71%  
411 4% 70%  
412 8% 66%  
413 4% 58%  
414 3% 54%  
415 15% 51% Median
416 0.7% 35%  
417 4% 35%  
418 6% 31%  
419 2% 25%  
420 4% 22%  
421 2% 18%  
422 0.8% 16%  
423 3% 16%  
424 2% 13%  
425 3% 11%  
426 2% 8%  
427 0.5% 6%  
428 1.3% 6%  
429 0.7% 4%  
430 0.9% 4%  
431 0.6% 3%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.3% 2%  
434 0.3% 2%  
435 0.4% 1.3%  
436 0.1% 0.9%  
437 0.2% 0.7%  
438 0.2% 0.5%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.7%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.5%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.5% 99.2%  
370 1.2% 98.7%  
371 3% 98%  
372 2% 95%  
373 1.2% 93%  
374 3% 92%  
375 3% 89%  
376 2% 86%  
377 1.1% 84%  
378 0.7% 83%  
379 0.9% 82%  
380 1.0% 82%  
381 1.3% 81%  
382 3% 79%  
383 3% 76%  
384 9% 73%  
385 2% 65%  
386 11% 63%  
387 3% 52%  
388 18% 49% Median
389 8% 31%  
390 2% 23%  
391 4% 21%  
392 3% 17%  
393 0.4% 14%  
394 1.4% 14%  
395 0.4% 12%  
396 0.9% 12%  
397 2% 11%  
398 0.3% 9%  
399 2% 9%  
400 1.1% 7%  
401 2% 6%  
402 1.0% 4%  
403 0.9% 3%  
404 0.8% 2%  
405 0.5% 1.2%  
406 0.4% 0.7%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.3% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.4%  
349 0.2% 99.3%  
350 0.2% 99.1%  
351 0.4% 99.0%  
352 0.3% 98.5%  
353 2% 98%  
354 0.4% 96%  
355 0.1% 96% Majority
356 0.4% 95%  
357 4% 95%  
358 1.4% 91%  
359 2% 89%  
360 2% 88%  
361 1.3% 86%  
362 1.2% 84%  
363 5% 83%  
364 9% 78%  
365 3% 69%  
366 2% 66%  
367 1.3% 64%  
368 18% 62%  
369 2% 44%  
370 4% 42%  
371 3% 38% Median
372 2% 35%  
373 6% 33%  
374 4% 27%  
375 3% 24%  
376 2% 21%  
377 1.3% 19%  
378 4% 17%  
379 2% 14%  
380 2% 12%  
381 4% 10%  
382 0.5% 5%  
383 0.7% 5%  
384 0.7% 4%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.8% 3%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.7% 2%  
389 0.1% 0.9%  
390 0% 0.8%  
391 0.4% 0.8%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.3% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.3%  
327 0.3% 99.2%  
328 1.0% 99.0%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 0.8% 98%  
331 0.8% 97%  
332 0.9% 96%  
333 2% 95%  
334 3% 93%  
335 1.4% 90%  
336 1.5% 88%  
337 2% 87%  
338 3% 85%  
339 9% 82%  
340 5% 73%  
341 4% 67%  
342 1.5% 63%  
343 6% 62%  
344 3% 56%  
345 18% 52% Median
346 3% 34%  
347 2% 32%  
348 3% 30%  
349 4% 27%  
350 3% 22%  
351 3% 19%  
352 2% 16%  
353 2% 15%  
354 2% 13%  
355 1.4% 11% Majority
356 1.0% 10%  
357 0.8% 9%  
358 1.3% 8%  
359 1.1% 7%  
360 0.8% 6%  
361 2% 5%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.4% 3%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 1.0% 2%  
366 0.1% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.2% 0.6%  
370 0.2% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.4% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.2%  
320 0.1% 99.2%  
321 0.7% 99.1%  
322 0.4% 98%  
323 0.8% 98%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 0.7% 96%  
327 0.5% 95%  
328 4% 95%  
329 2% 90%  
330 2% 88%  
331 4% 86%  
332 1.3% 83%  
333 2% 81%  
334 3% 79%  
335 4% 76%  
336 6% 73%  
337 2% 67%  
338 3% 65%  
339 4% 62%  
340 2% 58% Median
341 18% 56%  
342 1.3% 38%  
343 2% 36%  
344 3% 34%  
345 9% 31%  
346 5% 22%  
347 1.2% 17%  
348 1.3% 16%  
349 2% 14%  
350 2% 12%  
351 1.4% 11%  
352 4% 9%  
353 0.4% 5%  
354 0.1% 5%  
355 0.4% 4% Majority
356 2% 4%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.5%  
359 0.2% 1.0%  
360 0.2% 0.9%  
361 0.1% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.3% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.2% 99.8%  
310 0.3% 99.6%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.3% 98.9%  
313 0.3% 98.6%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 4% 97%  
318 1.0% 94%  
319 2% 93%  
320 0.9% 91%  
321 0.4% 90%  
322 2% 90%  
323 2% 88%  
324 6% 87%  
325 5% 81%  
326 2% 75%  
327 5% 73%  
328 2% 68%  
329 0.6% 66%  
330 1.5% 65%  
331 20% 63% Median
332 5% 44%  
333 6% 38%  
334 3% 33%  
335 2% 29%  
336 0.7% 27%  
337 0.9% 26%  
338 6% 25%  
339 2% 20%  
340 5% 18%  
341 3% 13%  
342 0.6% 9%  
343 0.3% 9%  
344 0.4% 8%  
345 2% 8%  
346 1.4% 6%  
347 1.4% 4%  
348 2% 3%  
349 0.1% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.3% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.5% 99.6%  
297 0.5% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 98.6%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 1.0% 98%  
302 2% 97%  
303 0.5% 95%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.6% 94%  
306 4% 94%  
307 5% 90%  
308 2% 85%  
309 0.3% 83%  
310 0.6% 83%  
311 2% 82%  
312 10% 80%  
313 8% 70%  
314 0.3% 62%  
315 0.5% 62%  
316 2% 61%  
317 11% 60%  
318 17% 49% Median
319 2% 31%  
320 0.6% 29%  
321 0.6% 28%  
322 7% 28%  
323 4% 21%  
324 4% 17%  
325 0.9% 13%  
326 0.2% 12%  
327 3% 12%  
328 3% 9%  
329 2% 6%  
330 0.1% 4%  
331 0.3% 4%  
332 1.1% 4%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.9% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0% 1.4%  
337 0% 1.4%  
338 0.7% 1.3%  
339 0.4% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.2% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.4%  
281 0.3% 99.2%  
282 0.3% 98.9%  
283 0.3% 98.6%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.8% 98%  
286 3% 97%  
287 1.0% 94%  
288 0.4% 93%  
289 4% 93%  
290 5% 89%  
291 1.1% 84%  
292 2% 83%  
293 2% 81%  
294 4% 79%  
295 5% 75%  
296 1.3% 70%  
297 5% 69%  
298 16% 64%  
299 4% 48%  
300 2% 44%  
301 8% 43% Median
302 3% 34%  
303 4% 32%  
304 3% 28%  
305 2% 25%  
306 2% 23%  
307 6% 21%  
308 1.0% 15%  
309 2% 14%  
310 2% 12%  
311 3% 10%  
312 0.9% 7%  
313 0.8% 6%  
314 0.7% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.8% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.7% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.3% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0.1% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.4%  
251 0.4% 99.2%  
252 0.3% 98.8%  
253 2% 98.5%  
254 0.2% 97%  
255 1.3% 97%  
256 1.4% 95%  
257 1.2% 94%  
258 3% 93%  
259 3% 90%  
260 2% 87%  
261 2% 85%  
262 0.8% 83%  
263 8% 82%  
264 1.4% 74%  
265 5% 72%  
266 3% 67%  
267 2% 64%  
268 3% 62%  
269 6% 58%  
270 3% 52%  
271 15% 49% Median
272 2% 34%  
273 5% 32%  
274 4% 26%  
275 3% 23%  
276 2% 20%  
277 4% 17%  
278 2% 13%  
279 2% 11%  
280 1.0% 9%  
281 1.0% 8%  
282 3% 7%  
283 0.5% 5%  
284 1.3% 4%  
285 0.4% 3%  
286 1.0% 3%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.4% 1.4%  
289 0.1% 1.0%  
290 0.4% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.2% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0.3% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.2%  
244 0.9% 99.0%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.3% 98%  
248 0.8% 97%  
249 2% 96%  
250 0.2% 94%  
251 5% 94%  
252 2% 89%  
253 0.6% 87%  
254 3% 86%  
255 6% 83%  
256 3% 77%  
257 3% 74%  
258 2% 72%  
259 5% 70%  
260 3% 65%  
261 15% 62% Median
262 3% 47%  
263 1.0% 44%  
264 10% 43%  
265 2% 33%  
266 4% 32%  
267 4% 27%  
268 6% 24%  
269 2% 18%  
270 0.5% 16%  
271 4% 15%  
272 3% 11%  
273 1.0% 9%  
274 4% 8%  
275 0.1% 4%  
276 0.7% 4%  
277 0.8% 3%  
278 0.1% 2%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.6% 1.4%  
282 0.1% 0.8%  
283 0.1% 0.7%  
284 0.3% 0.6%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.3% 99.9%  
174 0.4% 99.5%  
175 0.3% 99.1%  
176 0.3% 98.9%  
177 0.2% 98.6%  
178 2% 98%  
179 0.9% 97%  
180 1.0% 96%  
181 0.4% 95%  
182 0.9% 95%  
183 0.7% 94%  
184 1.3% 93%  
185 0.7% 92%  
186 3% 91%  
187 3% 88%  
188 2% 85%  
189 5% 83%  
190 2% 78%  
191 3% 76%  
192 3% 73%  
193 3% 70%  
194 2% 66%  
195 4% 64%  
196 3% 60% Median
197 25% 57%  
198 5% 32%  
199 0.9% 28%  
200 7% 27%  
201 3% 20%  
202 8% 17%  
203 0.4% 9%  
204 1.3% 8%  
205 2% 7%  
206 0.4% 5%  
207 0.1% 5%  
208 1.4% 5%  
209 2% 3%  
210 0.4% 1.2%  
211 0.3% 0.8%  
212 0.1% 0.5%  
213 0.2% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.3% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.6%  
167 0.1% 99.4%  
168 0.5% 99.3%  
169 0.3% 98.8%  
170 0.3% 98%  
171 1.0% 98%  
172 0.7% 97%  
173 1.4% 96%  
174 1.2% 95%  
175 2% 94%  
176 1.5% 92%  
177 2% 91%  
178 1.0% 89%  
179 3% 88%  
180 2% 84%  
181 2% 82%  
182 4% 80%  
183 5% 76%  
184 2% 71%  
185 3% 69%  
186 6% 65%  
187 15% 59% Median
188 12% 44%  
189 3% 32%  
190 5% 29%  
191 5% 24%  
192 3% 19%  
193 2% 17%  
194 4% 15%  
195 2% 11%  
196 2% 8%  
197 1.4% 7%  
198 1.1% 5%  
199 1.1% 4%  
200 0.8% 3%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 1.1% 2%  
203 0.7% 1.0%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations