Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 15–18 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.2–21.8% 20.0–22.1% 19.8–22.3% 19.4–22.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.0% 19.2–20.8% 19.0–21.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.8–16.3% 14.6–16.5% 14.4–16.6% 14.1–17.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.3–15.7% 14.1–15.9% 13.9–16.1% 13.6–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.4–10.6% 9.3–10.8% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 8.0–9.1% 7.8–9.3% 7.7–9.4% 7.4–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.6–5.5% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 157 150–163 149–165 148–166 144–169
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 149 143–155 141–157 140–159 137–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 111–123 108–123 108–123 105–126
Alternative für Deutschland 94 112 107–117 105–119 104–120 102–123
Die Linke 69 73 70–79 69–81 68–82 66–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 63 59–67 58–69 57–71 55–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 34–40 33–42 32–42 31–44

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.3% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.4%  
146 0.4% 99.1%  
147 0.8% 98.7%  
148 2% 98%  
149 3% 96%  
150 4% 93%  
151 7% 89%  
152 2% 83%  
153 5% 81%  
154 8% 76%  
155 7% 68%  
156 9% 61%  
157 7% 52% Median
158 8% 45%  
159 2% 37%  
160 15% 35%  
161 6% 21%  
162 3% 15%  
163 5% 12%  
164 2% 8%  
165 1.4% 6%  
166 2% 4%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.8% 1.4%  
169 0.1% 0.6%  
170 0.1% 0.5%  
171 0.3% 0.4%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 0.7% 99.1%  
140 2% 98%  
141 4% 96%  
142 2% 92%  
143 0.9% 91%  
144 4% 90%  
145 10% 86%  
146 5% 76%  
147 8% 71%  
148 12% 63%  
149 9% 51% Median
150 3% 41%  
151 2% 38%  
152 16% 36%  
153 5% 20%  
154 3% 15%  
155 6% 12%  
156 1.1% 6%  
157 0.8% 5%  
158 2% 4%  
159 1.1% 3%  
160 0.9% 1.5%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.2% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.5% 99.7%  
106 0.2% 99.1%  
107 0.6% 99.0%  
108 4% 98%  
109 1.1% 95%  
110 1.5% 94%  
111 5% 92%  
112 9% 87%  
113 5% 78%  
114 2% 74%  
115 17% 72%  
116 12% 55% Median
117 3% 42%  
118 7% 40%  
119 12% 32%  
120 6% 20%  
121 1.0% 14%  
122 2% 13%  
123 9% 11%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.2% 2%  
126 1.0% 1.5%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.5% 99.5%  
103 1.0% 99.0%  
104 1.3% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 4% 92%  
108 6% 89%  
109 7% 83%  
110 5% 76%  
111 11% 72%  
112 14% 61% Median
113 6% 46%  
114 12% 40%  
115 9% 27%  
116 4% 18%  
117 4% 14%  
118 3% 10%  
119 4% 7%  
120 1.3% 3%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.2%  
123 0.2% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 3% 98.8%  
69 2% 95% Last Result
70 4% 93%  
71 4% 90%  
72 22% 86%  
73 14% 64% Median
74 9% 49%  
75 8% 40%  
76 6% 32%  
77 5% 26%  
78 6% 21%  
79 6% 15%  
80 4% 9%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.9% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.2% 99.5%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 6% 94%  
60 6% 88%  
61 10% 82%  
62 8% 72%  
63 20% 63% Median
64 15% 43%  
65 7% 29%  
66 6% 21%  
67 6% 16%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 7% 97%  
34 5% 91%  
35 20% 86%  
36 7% 67%  
37 19% 60% Median
38 10% 41%  
39 10% 31%  
40 11% 21%  
41 3% 10%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 459 100% 452–464 450–468 449–470 445–473
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 406 100% 399–413 397–416 396–418 393–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 365 97% 358–373 357–376 354–377 351–380
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 88% 354–369 353–371 352–373 347–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 12% 340–355 338–356 336–357 332–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 344 2% 336–350 334–352 332–354 329–358
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 337 0% 329–344 327–345 325–347 321–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 296–309 293–310 291–312 288–317
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 299 0% 291–305 289–308 288–309 284–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 265–280 263–281 260–283 258–286
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 249 0% 242–257 241–260 240–262 237–265
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 191 0% 185–197 182–199 180–200 178–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 179 0% 173–186 170–188 170–189 167–192

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.2% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.6%  
446 0.5% 99.4%  
447 0.4% 98.9%  
448 0.9% 98.5%  
449 1.0% 98%  
450 3% 97%  
451 3% 94%  
452 2% 91%  
453 5% 89%  
454 2% 84%  
455 5% 83%  
456 3% 77%  
457 10% 75%  
458 7% 65%  
459 14% 58% Median
460 3% 44%  
461 2% 41%  
462 14% 39%  
463 8% 25%  
464 7% 17%  
465 2% 10%  
466 2% 8% Last Result
467 0.8% 6%  
468 2% 5%  
469 0.3% 3%  
470 1.0% 3%  
471 0.8% 2%  
472 0.9% 1.4%  
473 0.2% 0.5%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.7%  
393 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
394 0.7% 99.0%  
395 0.2% 98%  
396 2% 98%  
397 1.1% 96%  
398 1.0% 95%  
399 6% 94%  
400 3% 88%  
401 4% 85%  
402 10% 81%  
403 9% 71%  
404 2% 62%  
405 8% 60%  
406 4% 52% Median
407 8% 48%  
408 3% 40%  
409 4% 37%  
410 14% 33%  
411 2% 19%  
412 4% 17%  
413 5% 13%  
414 0.5% 8%  
415 2% 8%  
416 2% 6%  
417 1.3% 4%  
418 0.2% 3%  
419 2% 2%  
420 0.1% 0.7%  
421 0.3% 0.6%  
422 0.2% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0.1% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.3% 99.8%  
351 0.3% 99.6%  
352 0.7% 99.2%  
353 0.6% 98%  
354 0.8% 98%  
355 0.4% 97% Majority
356 1.4% 97%  
357 3% 95%  
358 4% 93%  
359 4% 89%  
360 5% 85%  
361 3% 80%  
362 5% 77%  
363 4% 72%  
364 7% 68%  
365 16% 62% Median
366 7% 45%  
367 4% 39%  
368 4% 35%  
369 5% 31%  
370 4% 26%  
371 9% 21%  
372 2% 12%  
373 3% 10%  
374 0.8% 7%  
375 2% 7%  
376 2% 5%  
377 2% 3%  
378 0.4% 1.3%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.3% 0.7%  
381 0.2% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0.1% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.2% 99.9%  
347 0.3% 99.7%  
348 0.3% 99.3%  
349 0.8% 99.1%  
350 0.2% 98%  
351 0.3% 98%  
352 0.8% 98%  
353 6% 97%  
354 3% 91%  
355 4% 88% Majority
356 4% 84%  
357 3% 80%  
358 2% 77%  
359 2% 76%  
360 8% 74%  
361 9% 65% Median
362 19% 57%  
363 8% 38%  
364 6% 30%  
365 3% 24%  
366 3% 22%  
367 2% 19%  
368 5% 17%  
369 3% 11%  
370 2% 8%  
371 3% 6%  
372 0.5% 3%  
373 0.7% 3%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.8% 2%  
376 0.3% 0.9%  
377 0.3% 0.6%  
378 0.2% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.2% 99.8%  
332 0.3% 99.7%  
333 0.3% 99.4%  
334 0.8% 99.1%  
335 0.2% 98%  
336 0.7% 98%  
337 0.5% 97%  
338 3% 97%  
339 2% 94%  
340 3% 92%  
341 5% 89%  
342 2% 83%  
343 3% 81%  
344 3% 78%  
345 6% 76%  
346 8% 70% Median
347 19% 62%  
348 9% 43%  
349 8% 35%  
350 2% 26%  
351 2% 24%  
352 3% 23%  
353 4% 20%  
354 4% 16%  
355 3% 12% Majority
356 6% 9%  
357 0.8% 3%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.8% 2%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.3% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.2% 99.7%  
329 0.4% 99.5%  
330 0.3% 99.2%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 2% 98.6%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 1.3% 95%  
335 2% 94%  
336 5% 92%  
337 3% 87%  
338 9% 84%  
339 8% 75%  
340 5% 67%  
341 4% 62%  
342 5% 58%  
343 2% 53% Median
344 7% 50%  
345 5% 43%  
346 7% 38%  
347 14% 32%  
348 4% 18%  
349 3% 14%  
350 1.4% 11%  
351 3% 9%  
352 2% 6%  
353 1.5% 5%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 1.3% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.2% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.2% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.2% 99.7%  
321 0.3% 99.6%  
322 0.4% 99.3%  
323 0.6% 98.8%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 1.0% 98%  
326 1.1% 97%  
327 2% 96%  
328 2% 94%  
329 5% 92%  
330 5% 87%  
331 5% 82%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 6% 72%  
335 3% 65%  
336 11% 62% Median
337 5% 51%  
338 14% 46%  
339 9% 32%  
340 4% 23%  
341 4% 19%  
342 2% 16%  
343 3% 14%  
344 2% 11%  
345 4% 9%  
346 1.4% 5%  
347 1.1% 3%  
348 1.0% 2%  
349 0.6% 1.3%  
350 0.2% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.2% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.2% 99.8%  
288 0.4% 99.6%  
289 0.5% 99.2%  
290 0.9% 98.7%  
291 1.1% 98%  
292 2% 97%  
293 0.7% 95%  
294 1.2% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 5% 91%  
297 3% 86%  
298 6% 83%  
299 8% 77%  
300 3% 69%  
301 12% 66%  
302 12% 54% Median
303 5% 42%  
304 3% 38%  
305 5% 35%  
306 5% 30%  
307 5% 25%  
308 7% 21%  
309 5% 14%  
310 5% 9%  
311 1.5% 5%  
312 0.9% 3%  
313 0.6% 2%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.3% 1.2%  
316 0.3% 0.9%  
317 0.3% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0.1% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.2% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.4% 99.4%  
286 0.4% 99.0%  
287 0.6% 98.6%  
288 1.0% 98%  
289 4% 97%  
290 2% 93%  
291 3% 90%  
292 3% 88%  
293 3% 85%  
294 4% 81%  
295 4% 77%  
296 3% 73%  
297 9% 70%  
298 3% 61% Median
299 18% 58%  
300 7% 40%  
301 9% 33%  
302 2% 24%  
303 6% 22%  
304 4% 16%  
305 4% 12%  
306 1.5% 8%  
307 2% 7%  
308 2% 5%  
309 1.4% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.6% 2%  
312 0.3% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.2% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0.1% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.2% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.5%  
259 0.4% 99.4%  
260 2% 99.0%  
261 0.5% 97%  
262 0.5% 97%  
263 2% 96%  
264 0.8% 94%  
265 4% 93%  
266 7% 90%  
267 1.5% 83%  
268 3% 81%  
269 6% 78%  
270 4% 73%  
271 4% 69%  
272 7% 65%  
273 2% 59% Median
274 8% 56%  
275 18% 48%  
276 3% 30%  
277 7% 27%  
278 5% 20%  
279 2% 15%  
280 4% 13%  
281 5% 9%  
282 0.9% 4%  
283 1.3% 3%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.1% 0.9%  
286 0.4% 0.8%  
287 0.2% 0.4%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0.1% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.2% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.7% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 98.9%  
239 1.1% 98.7%  
240 2% 98%  
241 2% 96%  
242 5% 94%  
243 2% 88%  
244 4% 87%  
245 4% 83%  
246 14% 79%  
247 3% 65%  
248 7% 62%  
249 6% 55% Median
250 13% 49%  
251 3% 35%  
252 9% 32%  
253 4% 23%  
254 3% 19%  
255 3% 16%  
256 2% 13%  
257 2% 11%  
258 2% 9%  
259 1.1% 6%  
260 0.8% 5%  
261 1.4% 4%  
262 0.9% 3%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 1.2% 2%  
265 0.3% 0.5%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0.1% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.9%  
177 0.2% 99.8%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.2% 99.4%  
180 2% 99.1%  
181 0.8% 97%  
182 3% 96%  
183 2% 94%  
184 2% 92%  
185 3% 90%  
186 5% 87%  
187 16% 83%  
188 4% 66%  
189 6% 62% Median
190 4% 56%  
191 7% 52%  
192 12% 45%  
193 7% 33%  
194 6% 27%  
195 0.6% 21%  
196 9% 20%  
197 2% 11%  
198 2% 8%  
199 4% 6%  
200 0.7% 3%  
201 0.5% 2%  
202 0.1% 1.4%  
203 0.8% 1.3%  
204 0.2% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.8%  
167 0.5% 99.6%  
168 0.1% 99.1%  
169 1.2% 99.0%  
170 3% 98%  
171 0.4% 94%  
172 3% 94%  
173 5% 91%  
174 2% 86%  
175 2% 84%  
176 8% 82%  
177 7% 75%  
178 13% 68%  
179 9% 54% Median
180 5% 46%  
181 5% 41%  
182 8% 36%  
183 8% 28%  
184 3% 20%  
185 5% 17%  
186 5% 12%  
187 0.5% 7%  
188 3% 6%  
189 2% 3%  
190 0.1% 2%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.5% 0.9%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.2% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations