Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 22–25 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.3–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 8.0–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.5% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 165 154–173 152–176 150–177 147–182
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 162 155–173 152–176 150–178 147–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 109 100–115 99–118 97–120 94–125
Alternative für Deutschland 94 102 98–112 97–112 97–113 95–122
Die Linke 69 71 65–77 62–80 61–81 59–83
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 58–69 56–72 55–73 53–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 33 29–38 28–40 27–40 26–44

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0.3% 99.8%  
147 0.4% 99.5%  
148 0.1% 99.1%  
149 0.9% 99.0%  
150 1.3% 98%  
151 0.7% 97%  
152 1.3% 96%  
153 3% 95%  
154 2% 92%  
155 1.3% 90%  
156 4% 88%  
157 5% 85%  
158 0.6% 80%  
159 3% 79%  
160 8% 77%  
161 0.6% 69%  
162 4% 68%  
163 9% 64%  
164 2% 55%  
165 5% 53% Median
166 9% 48%  
167 3% 39%  
168 5% 37%  
169 5% 31%  
170 5% 26%  
171 3% 21%  
172 3% 18%  
173 6% 15%  
174 1.3% 8%  
175 0.7% 7%  
176 4% 6%  
177 0.8% 3%  
178 0.2% 2%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.2% 0.9%  
181 0% 0.8%  
182 0.3% 0.8%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0.2% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.4% 99.7%  
148 0.5% 99.3%  
149 0.1% 98.8%  
150 1.2% 98.7%  
151 0.5% 97%  
152 3% 97%  
153 2% 94%  
154 1.2% 92%  
155 5% 91%  
156 5% 86%  
157 2% 81%  
158 6% 79%  
159 7% 73%  
160 1.1% 66%  
161 7% 65%  
162 11% 57% Median
163 2% 47%  
164 5% 44%  
165 5% 39%  
166 5% 34%  
167 3% 29%  
168 2% 26%  
169 6% 24%  
170 2% 18%  
171 1.0% 16%  
172 4% 15%  
173 2% 11%  
174 2% 9%  
175 2% 7%  
176 2% 5%  
177 0.6% 4%  
178 1.0% 3%  
179 0.4% 2%  
180 0.9% 2%  
181 0.2% 0.9%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 1.0% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 98.7%  
96 0.5% 98%  
97 0.2% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 96%  
100 3% 92%  
101 3% 90%  
102 2% 87%  
103 3% 85%  
104 6% 83%  
105 7% 76%  
106 9% 69%  
107 2% 60%  
108 3% 58%  
109 19% 56% Median
110 5% 37%  
111 8% 32%  
112 1.4% 24%  
113 4% 22%  
114 8% 19%  
115 2% 10%  
116 2% 8%  
117 0.5% 6%  
118 1.1% 5%  
119 1.2% 4%  
120 1.2% 3%  
121 0.9% 2%  
122 0.1% 1.0%  
123 0% 1.0%  
124 0.4% 0.9%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.3% 0.3%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0% 99.6%  
91 0% 99.5%  
92 0% 99.5%  
93 0% 99.5%  
94 0% 99.5% Last Result
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 1.3% 99.3%  
97 3% 98%  
98 13% 94%  
99 18% 82%  
100 9% 64%  
101 4% 55%  
102 1.4% 51% Median
103 0.2% 49%  
104 0% 49%  
105 0% 49%  
106 0.1% 49%  
107 1.0% 49%  
108 3% 48%  
109 7% 45%  
110 12% 38%  
111 15% 26%  
112 8% 11%  
113 2% 3%  
114 0.1% 1.2%  
115 0% 1.0%  
116 0% 1.0%  
117 0% 1.0%  
118 0% 1.0%  
119 0% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 1.0%  
121 0.3% 0.8%  
122 0.3% 0.6%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 0.6% 94%  
64 1.0% 93%  
65 5% 92%  
66 7% 88%  
67 5% 80%  
68 2% 76%  
69 3% 74% Last Result
70 7% 71%  
71 17% 64% Median
72 9% 47%  
73 3% 38%  
74 2% 35%  
75 4% 33%  
76 11% 30%  
77 9% 19%  
78 2% 10%  
79 0.6% 7%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 98.7%  
55 0.9% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 1.3% 94%  
58 8% 93%  
59 3% 84%  
60 5% 81%  
61 6% 76%  
62 11% 70%  
63 8% 59%  
64 13% 51% Median
65 6% 38%  
66 5% 32%  
67 10% 28%  
68 2% 18%  
69 7% 16%  
70 2% 8%  
71 1.2% 6%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.8% 1.4%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 5% 97%  
29 4% 92%  
30 6% 87%  
31 12% 81%  
32 14% 69%  
33 13% 55% Median
34 8% 43%  
35 10% 35%  
36 6% 25%  
37 5% 19%  
38 5% 14%  
39 4% 9%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 470 100% 459–480 456–482 455–485 450–489
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 424 100% 412–435 412–439 409–441 405–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 367 96% 358–380 355–383 352–387 350–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 363 90% 355–378 352–382 351–384 347–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 361 80% 350–371 345–376 345–378 340–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 346 10% 331–354 327–357 325–358 322–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 338 1.0% 325–346 322–349 319–350 315–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 303 0% 295–317 291–319 289–324 286–328
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 299 0% 292–316 289–317 288–320 284–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 261–282 259–285 256–286 252–293
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 258 0% 250–273 248–275 246–278 242–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 169–188 168–193 165–194 161–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 163–180 159–182 158–186 154–191

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
445 0% 100%  
446 0.1% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0% 99.7%  
449 0.2% 99.7%  
450 0.3% 99.6%  
451 0.2% 99.3%  
452 0.7% 99.1%  
453 0.1% 98%  
454 0.6% 98%  
455 0.9% 98%  
456 2% 97%  
457 2% 95%  
458 0.2% 93%  
459 5% 92%  
460 3% 88%  
461 4% 84%  
462 1.2% 80%  
463 0.6% 79%  
464 10% 78%  
465 2% 69%  
466 8% 67% Last Result
467 2% 59%  
468 2% 57%  
469 4% 55% Median
470 6% 51%  
471 11% 46%  
472 1.3% 35%  
473 2% 34%  
474 1.3% 32%  
475 12% 31%  
476 1.3% 18%  
477 3% 17%  
478 2% 14%  
479 0.5% 13%  
480 4% 12%  
481 3% 8%  
482 1.2% 5%  
483 0.3% 4%  
484 0.3% 4%  
485 2% 3%  
486 0.2% 1.1%  
487 0.1% 0.8%  
488 0.1% 0.7%  
489 0.2% 0.6%  
490 0.3% 0.5%  
491 0% 0.2%  
492 0.1% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0% 99.7%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 1.5% 99.5%  
407 0.1% 98%  
408 0.2% 98%  
409 0.4% 98%  
410 0.9% 97%  
411 0.8% 96%  
412 6% 96%  
413 0.8% 90%  
414 1.1% 89%  
415 2% 88%  
416 0.8% 86%  
417 8% 85%  
418 5% 78%  
419 1.5% 72%  
420 4% 71%  
421 1.1% 67%  
422 4% 66%  
423 8% 62%  
424 5% 54% Median
425 2% 49%  
426 3% 47%  
427 4% 44%  
428 5% 40%  
429 8% 35%  
430 8% 28%  
431 1.3% 20%  
432 3% 18%  
433 1.0% 15%  
434 1.3% 14%  
435 5% 13%  
436 1.0% 8%  
437 0.8% 7%  
438 0.6% 6%  
439 0.4% 5%  
440 1.2% 5%  
441 2% 4%  
442 0.5% 2%  
443 0.1% 1.5%  
444 0.1% 1.4%  
445 0.2% 1.2%  
446 0.6% 1.0%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.2% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.2% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.5% 99.5%  
351 0.1% 99.0%  
352 2% 98.8%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 0.7% 96%  
355 2% 96% Majority
356 1.2% 93%  
357 2% 92%  
358 0.8% 90%  
359 2% 89%  
360 1.1% 87%  
361 6% 86%  
362 4% 80%  
363 5% 76%  
364 8% 71%  
365 0.9% 62%  
366 11% 62%  
367 3% 50%  
368 5% 47% Median
369 5% 42%  
370 2% 37%  
371 3% 35%  
372 3% 32%  
373 3% 30%  
374 2% 27%  
375 4% 25%  
376 0.7% 21%  
377 4% 20%  
378 2% 16%  
379 3% 15%  
380 3% 12%  
381 0.9% 9%  
382 1.2% 8%  
383 2% 7%  
384 0.3% 5%  
385 1.4% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0.5% 2%  
389 0.8% 2%  
390 0.1% 0.9%  
391 0.4% 0.8%  
392 0.2% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.2% 99.7%  
347 0.3% 99.5%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.6% 99.1%  
350 0.4% 98.5%  
351 0.9% 98%  
352 4% 97%  
353 3% 94%  
354 0.8% 91%  
355 3% 90% Majority
356 8% 87%  
357 2% 79%  
358 3% 77%  
359 6% 73%  
360 6% 68%  
361 5% 61% Median
362 5% 57%  
363 3% 52%  
364 4% 49%  
365 3% 45%  
366 5% 42%  
367 2% 36%  
368 5% 35%  
369 1.2% 30%  
370 3% 29%  
371 2% 26%  
372 2% 24%  
373 3% 22%  
374 2% 19%  
375 2% 17%  
376 1.0% 15%  
377 3% 14%  
378 2% 10%  
379 0.8% 9%  
380 2% 8%  
381 0.9% 6%  
382 1.5% 5%  
383 0.3% 4%  
384 2% 4%  
385 0.1% 1.5%  
386 0.7% 1.3%  
387 0.3% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.8% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.1%  
342 0.1% 98.9%  
343 0.1% 98.7%  
344 0.4% 98.7%  
345 3% 98%  
346 0.9% 95%  
347 0.5% 94%  
348 0.1% 93%  
349 0.8% 93%  
350 7% 93%  
351 4% 86%  
352 1.0% 82%  
353 0.3% 81%  
354 1.2% 81%  
355 6% 80% Majority
356 6% 74%  
357 2% 68%  
358 2% 66%  
359 0.7% 64%  
360 8% 64% Median
361 7% 55%  
362 6% 48%  
363 0.7% 42%  
364 6% 41%  
365 4% 35%  
366 9% 31%  
367 4% 22%  
368 0.5% 18%  
369 1.3% 17%  
370 2% 16%  
371 5% 14%  
372 3% 10%  
373 0.5% 7%  
374 0.2% 6%  
375 0.4% 6%  
376 1.0% 6%  
377 2% 5%  
378 1.0% 3%  
379 0% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.7% 1.1%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.2% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.3% 99.7%  
323 0.7% 99.4%  
324 0.1% 98.7%  
325 2% 98.5%  
326 0.3% 96%  
327 1.5% 96%  
328 0.9% 95%  
329 2% 94%  
330 0.8% 92%  
331 2% 91%  
332 3% 90%  
333 1.0% 86%  
334 2% 85%  
335 2% 83%  
336 3% 81%  
337 2% 78%  
338 2% 76%  
339 3% 74%  
340 1.2% 71%  
341 5% 70%  
342 2% 65%  
343 5% 64%  
344 3% 58%  
345 4% 55% Median
346 3% 51%  
347 5% 48%  
348 5% 43%  
349 6% 39%  
350 6% 32%  
351 3% 27%  
352 2% 23%  
353 8% 21%  
354 3% 13%  
355 0.8% 10% Majority
356 3% 9%  
357 4% 6%  
358 0.9% 3%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.6% 1.5%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.3% 0.8%  
363 0.2% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.4% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.3%  
317 1.0% 99.3%  
318 0.5% 98%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.4% 97%  
321 2% 97%  
322 1.4% 95%  
323 0.8% 94%  
324 2% 93%  
325 2% 91%  
326 3% 89%  
327 5% 86%  
328 3% 82%  
329 3% 79%  
330 2% 77%  
331 3% 74%  
332 2% 71%  
333 2% 69%  
334 3% 67%  
335 4% 64%  
336 5% 59%  
337 3% 55%  
338 10% 52% Median
339 5% 42%  
340 5% 37%  
341 6% 32%  
342 2% 26%  
343 5% 24%  
344 2% 18%  
345 2% 17%  
346 5% 14%  
347 3% 9%  
348 0.9% 6%  
349 0.9% 5%  
350 2% 5%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.2% 1.2%  
355 0.3% 1.0% Majority
356 0.3% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.3% 99.8%  
287 0.4% 99.4%  
288 0.7% 99.1%  
289 1.0% 98%  
290 2% 97%  
291 1.3% 96%  
292 2% 94%  
293 0.7% 92%  
294 1.1% 91%  
295 2% 90%  
296 0.8% 89%  
297 6% 88%  
298 3% 81%  
299 7% 78%  
300 5% 71%  
301 6% 67%  
302 8% 60%  
303 5% 53%  
304 5% 48% Median
305 4% 43%  
306 5% 39%  
307 2% 34%  
308 2% 32%  
309 2% 31%  
310 2% 29%  
311 3% 26%  
312 2% 24%  
313 3% 21%  
314 3% 18%  
315 2% 15%  
316 3% 13%  
317 3% 11%  
318 0.9% 7%  
319 2% 6%  
320 0.5% 5%  
321 0.4% 4%  
322 0.8% 4%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.9% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.5% 1.2%  
327 0.2% 0.7%  
328 0.3% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.5% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.3% 99.0%  
287 0.5% 98.7%  
288 2% 98%  
289 2% 96%  
290 1.0% 94%  
291 0.9% 93%  
292 13% 92%  
293 0.8% 79%  
294 4% 78%  
295 9% 74%  
296 3% 66%  
297 2% 63% Median
298 7% 61%  
299 5% 54%  
300 4% 49%  
301 2% 46%  
302 6% 43%  
303 2% 37%  
304 5% 35%  
305 1.5% 31%  
306 2% 29%  
307 2% 27%  
308 2% 24%  
309 1.2% 22%  
310 3% 21%  
311 1.2% 18%  
312 0.8% 16%  
313 3% 16%  
314 2% 13%  
315 0.4% 10%  
316 3% 10%  
317 3% 7%  
318 0.4% 4%  
319 0.8% 4%  
320 1.5% 3%  
321 0.8% 2%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.3% 0.7%  
324 0.2% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.9% 99.3%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 1.0% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 1.3% 96%  
259 0.9% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 3% 92%  
262 1.5% 89%  
263 4% 88%  
264 1.2% 83%  
265 3% 82%  
266 4% 79%  
267 0.7% 75%  
268 4% 74%  
269 5% 71%  
270 0.6% 66%  
271 7% 65%  
272 3% 58%  
273 2% 55%  
274 12% 53% Median
275 0.9% 42%  
276 2% 41%  
277 11% 39%  
278 2% 28%  
279 3% 26%  
280 7% 23%  
281 2% 16%  
282 6% 14%  
283 2% 8%  
284 0.4% 6%  
285 3% 5%  
286 0.7% 3%  
287 0.1% 2%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.2% 1.5%  
290 0.3% 1.3%  
291 0.3% 0.9%  
292 0% 0.6%  
293 0.3% 0.6%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.3% 99.8%  
243 0.3% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.2%  
245 1.4% 99.1%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 2% 97%  
249 4% 95%  
250 2% 91%  
251 3% 89%  
252 5% 87%  
253 8% 81%  
254 2% 73%  
255 4% 71%  
256 5% 67%  
257 9% 62%  
258 4% 53%  
259 3% 49% Median
260 7% 46%  
261 2% 39%  
262 3% 37%  
263 4% 34%  
264 2% 30%  
265 0.9% 28%  
266 3% 27%  
267 2% 24%  
268 1.2% 21%  
269 2% 20%  
270 3% 18%  
271 2% 15%  
272 1.2% 13%  
273 3% 12%  
274 2% 9%  
275 2% 7%  
276 1.2% 5%  
277 0.6% 4%  
278 0.9% 3%  
279 1.0% 2%  
280 0.7% 1.2%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0.1% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.5% 99.8%  
162 0.5% 99.4%  
163 1.1% 98.9%  
164 0.1% 98%  
165 0.3% 98%  
166 0.1% 97%  
167 2% 97%  
168 2% 96%  
169 5% 94%  
170 0.8% 89%  
171 0.8% 88%  
172 0.9% 87%  
173 2% 86%  
174 6% 84%  
175 8% 78%  
176 5% 70%  
177 2% 66%  
178 0.4% 64%  
179 2% 64%  
180 15% 62% Median
181 8% 47%  
182 10% 38%  
183 2% 28%  
184 0.4% 26%  
185 0.7% 26%  
186 6% 25%  
187 3% 19%  
188 9% 16%  
189 0.9% 7%  
190 0.3% 6%  
191 0.1% 6%  
192 0.5% 6%  
193 1.3% 5%  
194 3% 4%  
195 0.5% 1.2%  
196 0.1% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.6%  
200 0.3% 0.5%  
201 0.2% 0.2%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.2% 99.9%  
153 0.2% 99.7%  
154 0.3% 99.5%  
155 0% 99.3%  
156 0.1% 99.3%  
157 0.5% 99.2%  
158 1.2% 98.6%  
159 3% 97%  
160 0.6% 95%  
161 0.1% 94%  
162 0.9% 94%  
163 4% 93%  
164 6% 89%  
165 4% 84%  
166 0.5% 79%  
167 2% 79%  
168 5% 77%  
169 8% 72%  
170 8% 64%  
171 6% 56%  
172 0.8% 50%  
173 5% 49% Median
174 8% 44%  
175 8% 36%  
176 9% 28%  
177 0.8% 19%  
178 0.1% 18%  
179 3% 18%  
180 5% 15%  
181 4% 10%  
182 1.4% 6%  
183 0.1% 4%  
184 0.2% 4%  
185 1.2% 4%  
186 1.0% 3%  
187 0.8% 2%  
188 0.1% 0.9%  
189 0% 0.7%  
190 0% 0.7%  
191 0.3% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations