Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 20–27 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.1% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.0–16.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 162–180 160–183 158–185 153–191
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 142–158 139–162 137–164 134–169
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 107–120 103–124 103–125 99–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 97–113 96–116 94–117 91–121
Die Linke 69 68 63–75 60–77 58–78 57–82
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–67 53–68 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–45 34–46 33–48 30–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.5% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.0%  
156 0.7% 98.6%  
157 0.4% 98%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 0.9% 96%  
161 1.0% 95%  
162 6% 94%  
163 2% 87%  
164 6% 86%  
165 3% 80%  
166 5% 76%  
167 4% 72%  
168 5% 68%  
169 3% 63%  
170 7% 60%  
171 4% 54% Median
172 6% 49%  
173 9% 44%  
174 1.5% 34%  
175 5% 33%  
176 5% 28%  
177 5% 22%  
178 2% 18%  
179 3% 16%  
180 4% 13%  
181 2% 9%  
182 0.8% 6%  
183 1.1% 6%  
184 2% 5%  
185 0.6% 3%  
186 0.8% 2%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.4% 99.6%  
135 0.2% 99.2%  
136 0.2% 99.0%  
137 2% 98.8%  
138 2% 97%  
139 0.9% 95%  
140 0.5% 95%  
141 3% 94%  
142 7% 92%  
143 2% 85%  
144 1.0% 83%  
145 8% 82%  
146 6% 74%  
147 4% 68%  
148 1.3% 64%  
149 11% 63%  
150 8% 52% Median
151 8% 44%  
152 3% 37%  
153 7% 33%  
154 6% 27%  
155 3% 21%  
156 1.1% 18%  
157 4% 16%  
158 3% 13%  
159 1.2% 10%  
160 2% 9%  
161 2% 7%  
162 1.5% 6%  
163 1.1% 4%  
164 0.6% 3%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.4% 2%  
167 0.7% 1.3%  
168 0% 0.6%  
169 0.1% 0.6%  
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0% 99.6%  
98 0% 99.6%  
99 1.2% 99.6%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 0% 98%  
102 0.1% 98%  
103 3% 98%  
104 4% 95%  
105 0.4% 91%  
106 0% 90%  
107 7% 90%  
108 12% 84%  
109 0.3% 72%  
110 0.3% 71%  
111 9% 71%  
112 16% 62% Median
113 3% 46%  
114 0% 43%  
115 1.2% 43%  
116 16% 42%  
117 3% 26%  
118 0% 24%  
119 2% 24%  
120 14% 22%  
121 0.5% 8%  
122 0% 8%  
123 0.6% 8%  
124 2% 7%  
125 3% 5%  
126 0.1% 2%  
127 0% 1.5%  
128 0.6% 1.5%  
129 0.5% 0.9%  
130 0% 0.4%  
131 0% 0.4%  
132 0.3% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.5%  
92 0.7% 99.3%  
93 0.5% 98.6%  
94 0.8% 98% Last Result
95 0.6% 97%  
96 4% 97%  
97 4% 93%  
98 1.1% 89%  
99 3% 88%  
100 2% 85%  
101 4% 83%  
102 7% 79%  
103 10% 72%  
104 3% 62%  
105 10% 59% Median
106 3% 50%  
107 8% 46%  
108 7% 39%  
109 7% 31%  
110 2% 25%  
111 4% 22%  
112 6% 18%  
113 4% 12%  
114 2% 9%  
115 2% 7%  
116 0.7% 5%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.8%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 1.1% 93%  
62 1.1% 92%  
63 3% 91%  
64 10% 88%  
65 11% 78%  
66 12% 67%  
67 3% 55%  
68 2% 52% Median
69 0.9% 50% Last Result
70 9% 49%  
71 17% 39%  
72 4% 22%  
73 5% 18%  
74 0.4% 13%  
75 2% 12%  
76 4% 10%  
77 4% 6%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 1.1% 99.2%  
52 2% 98%  
53 1.5% 96%  
54 2% 95%  
55 8% 92%  
56 5% 85%  
57 2% 80%  
58 10% 78%  
59 11% 67%  
60 8% 56% Median
61 5% 48%  
62 7% 43%  
63 13% 35%  
64 4% 22%  
65 4% 17%  
66 2% 13%  
67 3% 11%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 0.4% 99.3%  
32 0.7% 98.9%  
33 2% 98%  
34 2% 96%  
35 6% 94%  
36 4% 88%  
37 7% 83%  
38 11% 77%  
39 9% 66%  
40 10% 57% Median
41 12% 47%  
42 11% 35%  
43 5% 24%  
44 7% 19%  
45 6% 12%  
46 1.5% 5% Last Result
47 1.3% 4%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.4%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 474 100% 465–483 463–488 460–491 455–496
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 421 100% 413–433 410–435 407–439 401–443
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 386 100% 375–395 371–398 368–402 363–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 99.7% 367–389 364–391 360–392 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 361 76% 351–370 349–375 344–378 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 0.3% 320–342 318–345 317–349 310–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 325 0% 314–334 312–337 308–341 303–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 324 0% 312–335 310–337 309–340 303–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 317 0% 306–327 303–331 301–332 295–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 272 0% 262–282 258–285 256–288 252–293
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 253–274 251–278 249–281 244–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 172–191 169–193 168–196 163–201
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 165–183 163–186 160–188 155–192

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0.1% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0.1% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.8%  
453 0.1% 99.7%  
454 0% 99.7%  
455 0.3% 99.6%  
456 0.2% 99.3%  
457 0.4% 99.2%  
458 0.2% 98.8%  
459 0.5% 98.6%  
460 0.7% 98%  
461 1.0% 97%  
462 0.7% 96%  
463 3% 96%  
464 1.2% 93%  
465 2% 92%  
466 3% 90% Last Result
467 8% 87%  
468 3% 79%  
469 4% 77%  
470 3% 73%  
471 5% 70%  
472 9% 66%  
473 4% 57% Median
474 5% 53%  
475 9% 48%  
476 3% 39%  
477 2% 35%  
478 2% 34%  
479 3% 32%  
480 8% 29%  
481 3% 22%  
482 7% 19%  
483 2% 12%  
484 0.9% 10%  
485 0.8% 9%  
486 2% 8%  
487 0.5% 6%  
488 1.1% 6%  
489 1.2% 4%  
490 0.7% 3%  
491 1.1% 3%  
492 0.4% 1.5%  
493 0.2% 1.1%  
494 0.1% 0.9%  
495 0.3% 0.8%  
496 0.2% 0.5%  
497 0.2% 0.3%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0% 99.7%  
401 0.2% 99.6%  
402 0.2% 99.5%  
403 0.1% 99.3%  
404 0.2% 99.3%  
405 0.8% 99.1%  
406 0.6% 98%  
407 0.8% 98%  
408 0.2% 97%  
409 0.8% 97%  
410 2% 96%  
411 1.1% 93%  
412 1.2% 92%  
413 4% 91%  
414 5% 87%  
415 7% 82%  
416 3% 75%  
417 4% 72%  
418 5% 68%  
419 4% 63%  
420 3% 59%  
421 7% 56% Median
422 8% 49%  
423 3% 41%  
424 2% 38%  
425 2% 36%  
426 14% 34%  
427 2% 20%  
428 0.7% 19%  
429 2% 18%  
430 3% 16%  
431 2% 13%  
432 0.8% 11%  
433 1.2% 10%  
434 1.1% 9%  
435 3% 8%  
436 0.3% 5%  
437 0.6% 4%  
438 1.0% 4%  
439 0.7% 3%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.7% 1.4%  
443 0.2% 0.7%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.3% 99.8%  
362 0% 99.5%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.1% 99.4%  
365 0.1% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 99.1%  
367 1.2% 98.9%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 1.4% 97%  
370 0.3% 96%  
371 1.0% 96%  
372 1.0% 95%  
373 1.3% 94%  
374 0.6% 92%  
375 3% 92%  
376 0.8% 88%  
377 8% 88%  
378 2% 80%  
379 6% 78%  
380 4% 72%  
381 0.8% 68%  
382 4% 67%  
383 2% 63% Median
384 5% 62%  
385 6% 57%  
386 6% 51%  
387 12% 45%  
388 6% 33%  
389 0.8% 28%  
390 2% 27%  
391 0.7% 25%  
392 1.1% 24%  
393 7% 23%  
394 1.1% 16%  
395 6% 15%  
396 2% 9%  
397 1.2% 6%  
398 1.3% 5%  
399 0.2% 4%  
400 0.7% 4%  
401 0.4% 3%  
402 0.7% 3%  
403 0.6% 2%  
404 0.5% 1.2%  
405 0.3% 0.7%  
406 0.2% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.2% 99.6%  
357 0.5% 99.5%  
358 0.9% 98.9%  
359 0.3% 98%  
360 0.9% 98%  
361 1.0% 97%  
362 0.2% 96%  
363 0.5% 96%  
364 0.4% 95%  
365 1.2% 95%  
366 0.8% 93%  
367 3% 93%  
368 2% 90%  
369 7% 88%  
370 3% 81%  
371 6% 78%  
372 1.0% 73%  
373 2% 72%  
374 2% 70%  
375 3% 68%  
376 2% 65% Median
377 10% 64%  
378 9% 54%  
379 4% 44%  
380 13% 40%  
381 4% 27%  
382 1.2% 23%  
383 2% 22%  
384 1.5% 20%  
385 1.2% 18%  
386 2% 17%  
387 2% 16%  
388 1.0% 14%  
389 3% 13%  
390 3% 10%  
391 4% 7%  
392 0.4% 3%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.8% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.3%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.2% 1.0%  
398 0.1% 0.8%  
399 0.3% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0.1% 100%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0.6% 99.4%  
344 2% 98.8%  
345 0.2% 97%  
346 0.9% 97%  
347 0.7% 96%  
348 0.2% 96%  
349 0.6% 95%  
350 0.8% 95%  
351 8% 94%  
352 6% 86%  
353 1.4% 80%  
354 2% 78%  
355 0.9% 76% Majority
356 2% 75%  
357 3% 74%  
358 2% 70%  
359 15% 69%  
360 3% 54%  
361 8% 51% Median
362 5% 44%  
363 1.0% 39%  
364 1.3% 38%  
365 1.4% 37%  
366 5% 35%  
367 6% 30%  
368 8% 24%  
369 3% 16%  
370 4% 13%  
371 0.4% 9%  
372 0.8% 9%  
373 2% 8%  
374 0.6% 7%  
375 1.5% 6%  
376 0.7% 4%  
377 0.8% 4%  
378 1.3% 3%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.4%  
381 0.2% 1.2%  
382 0.3% 1.0%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.3% 0.4%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.3% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.2% 99.2%  
313 0.1% 99.0%  
314 0.2% 98.9%  
315 0.8% 98.7%  
316 0.3% 98%  
317 0.4% 98%  
318 4% 97%  
319 3% 93%  
320 3% 90%  
321 1.0% 87%  
322 2% 86%  
323 2% 84%  
324 1.2% 83%  
325 1.5% 82%  
326 2% 80%  
327 1.2% 78%  
328 4% 77%  
329 13% 73%  
330 4% 60% Median
331 9% 56%  
332 10% 46%  
333 2% 36%  
334 3% 35%  
335 2% 32%  
336 2% 30%  
337 1.0% 28%  
338 6% 27%  
339 3% 22%  
340 7% 19%  
341 2% 12%  
342 3% 10%  
343 0.8% 7%  
344 1.2% 7%  
345 0.4% 5%  
346 0.5% 5%  
347 0.2% 4%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 0.9% 3%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.9% 2%  
352 0.5% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.6%  
304 0.5% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 98.9%  
306 0.1% 98.7%  
307 0.4% 98.6%  
308 1.2% 98%  
309 0.7% 97%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.5% 96%  
312 1.5% 95%  
313 0.9% 94%  
314 6% 93%  
315 3% 87%  
316 2% 84%  
317 3% 82%  
318 4% 79%  
319 6% 75%  
320 1.4% 70%  
321 1.3% 68%  
322 6% 67%  
323 6% 61% Median
324 2% 55%  
325 7% 52%  
326 5% 45%  
327 2% 41%  
328 4% 39%  
329 8% 34%  
330 4% 26%  
331 0.9% 22%  
332 3% 21%  
333 6% 18%  
334 2% 12%  
335 2% 10%  
336 0.6% 8%  
337 3% 8%  
338 0.8% 5%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.9% 3%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.5%  
344 0.1% 1.0%  
345 0.3% 0.9%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.3% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.2% 99.3%  
306 0.6% 99.0%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 0.4% 98%  
310 3% 97%  
311 0.7% 94%  
312 4% 93%  
313 0.5% 89%  
314 1.4% 89%  
315 3% 87%  
316 3% 85%  
317 4% 82%  
318 7% 78%  
319 2% 71%  
320 2% 69%  
321 13% 67%  
322 1.4% 54% Median
323 2% 53%  
324 8% 51%  
325 1.2% 43%  
326 4% 42%  
327 5% 38%  
328 3% 33%  
329 5% 29%  
330 2% 24%  
331 2% 22%  
332 6% 21%  
333 2% 15%  
334 3% 13%  
335 3% 11%  
336 2% 7%  
337 0.9% 6%  
338 0.9% 5%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.5%  
344 0.3% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.3% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0.1% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.2% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.5% 99.2%  
299 0.9% 98.7%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.6% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 1.0% 95%  
305 0.5% 94%  
306 5% 93%  
307 4% 88%  
308 0.6% 84%  
309 3% 83%  
310 2% 80%  
311 7% 79%  
312 2% 72%  
313 0.8% 70%  
314 8% 69%  
315 5% 61%  
316 6% 56% Median
317 2% 50%  
318 1.4% 48%  
319 8% 47%  
320 5% 39%  
321 2% 34%  
322 7% 32%  
323 6% 24%  
324 3% 18%  
325 0.5% 15%  
326 0.4% 15%  
327 4% 14%  
328 2% 10%  
329 1.2% 8%  
330 0.2% 7%  
331 2% 6%  
332 3% 5%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.3% 0.9%  
338 0% 0.6%  
339 0.3% 0.6%  
340 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.5%  
253 0.5% 99.3%  
254 0.6% 98.9%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 1.2% 98%  
257 1.5% 97%  
258 1.0% 95%  
259 0.5% 94%  
260 2% 94%  
261 2% 92%  
262 1.0% 90%  
263 2% 89%  
264 6% 88%  
265 0.8% 81%  
266 8% 80%  
267 2% 72%  
268 7% 70%  
269 7% 64%  
270 3% 56%  
271 2% 53% Median
272 4% 51%  
273 4% 47%  
274 2% 43%  
275 9% 41%  
276 6% 32%  
277 5% 27%  
278 2% 22%  
279 2% 19%  
280 4% 17%  
281 2% 13%  
282 2% 11%  
283 3% 9%  
284 1.2% 6%  
285 0.7% 5%  
286 0.9% 4%  
287 0.7% 4%  
288 1.2% 3%  
289 0.5% 2%  
290 0.3% 1.2%  
291 0.1% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.3% 99.5%  
246 0.3% 99.2%  
247 0.4% 98.9%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 1.2% 98%  
250 2% 97%  
251 1.1% 95%  
252 0.7% 94%  
253 3% 93%  
254 4% 90%  
255 1.3% 86%  
256 4% 85%  
257 3% 81%  
258 9% 78%  
259 2% 69%  
260 1.3% 68%  
261 11% 66%  
262 4% 56% Median
263 7% 51%  
264 4% 44%  
265 7% 40%  
266 2% 33%  
267 5% 31%  
268 2% 26%  
269 6% 25%  
270 1.2% 19%  
271 1.1% 18%  
272 1.0% 16%  
273 4% 15%  
274 2% 12%  
275 2% 10%  
276 2% 8%  
277 0.3% 6%  
278 2% 6%  
279 0.6% 3%  
280 0.1% 3%  
281 0.8% 3%  
282 1.0% 2%  
283 0.1% 1.0%  
284 0.2% 0.9%  
285 0.3% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.3%  
165 0.5% 99.1%  
166 0.5% 98.6%  
167 0.6% 98%  
168 1.1% 98%  
169 2% 96%  
170 0.7% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 3% 92%  
173 2% 89%  
174 2% 87%  
175 3% 85%  
176 3% 82%  
177 3% 78%  
178 11% 75%  
179 6% 64%  
180 3% 58% Median
181 9% 55%  
182 4% 46%  
183 5% 42%  
184 3% 37%  
185 2% 34%  
186 5% 32%  
187 5% 27%  
188 3% 22%  
189 4% 19%  
190 2% 16%  
191 5% 13%  
192 3% 8%  
193 0.7% 6%  
194 0.9% 5%  
195 1.3% 4%  
196 0.9% 3%  
197 0.2% 2%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.4% 1.2%  
200 0.2% 0.8%  
201 0.3% 0.7%  
202 0.2% 0.4%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0.1% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.5%  
157 0.8% 99.3%  
158 0.3% 98%  
159 0.6% 98%  
160 0.7% 98%  
161 0.7% 97%  
162 0.6% 96%  
163 3% 96%  
164 3% 93%  
165 0.5% 90%  
166 6% 90%  
167 5% 83%  
168 2% 78%  
169 4% 76%  
170 7% 73%  
171 8% 65%  
172 2% 57% Median
173 5% 55%  
174 3% 50%  
175 3% 46%  
176 8% 44%  
177 4% 36%  
178 2% 32%  
179 7% 30%  
180 5% 23%  
181 2% 18%  
182 4% 16%  
183 5% 13%  
184 2% 8%  
185 0.9% 6%  
186 2% 5%  
187 0.4% 3%  
188 0.7% 3%  
189 0.8% 2%  
190 0.1% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.4%  
192 0.6% 1.0%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.2% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations