Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 29 November–2 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.5% 20.4–22.7% 20.1–23.0% 19.8–23.3% 19.3–23.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.0% 11.6–15.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 162 153–170 150–173 149–175 145–180
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 149–168 148–171 145–172 141–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 106–121 104–123 102–124 99–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 102 94–109 93–111 91–112 87–117
Die Linke 69 68 61–73 60–76 59–78 57–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 58–71 56–72 55–74 53–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–46 36–48 34–49 32–52

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.3% 99.1%  
148 0.6% 98.9%  
149 1.1% 98%  
150 2% 97%  
151 1.1% 95%  
152 1.2% 94%  
153 4% 93%  
154 3% 88%  
155 3% 85%  
156 2% 82%  
157 5% 80%  
158 2% 75%  
159 4% 73%  
160 13% 69%  
161 6% 56%  
162 4% 50% Median
163 3% 47%  
164 8% 44%  
165 4% 36%  
166 10% 32%  
167 2% 22%  
168 2% 20%  
169 2% 18%  
170 6% 16%  
171 1.5% 9%  
172 2% 8%  
173 2% 6%  
174 0.3% 4%  
175 2% 4%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.1% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.1% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.5%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.4% 99.1%  
145 1.2% 98.7%  
146 1.2% 97%  
147 1.1% 96%  
148 4% 95%  
149 2% 91%  
150 1.4% 89%  
151 3% 88%  
152 2% 85%  
153 7% 83%  
154 5% 76%  
155 4% 71%  
156 3% 67%  
157 6% 64%  
158 2% 57%  
159 6% 56% Median
160 9% 50%  
161 1.5% 40%  
162 12% 39%  
163 6% 27%  
164 1.1% 21%  
165 3% 20%  
166 0.9% 17%  
167 3% 16%  
168 6% 14%  
169 2% 8%  
170 0.6% 6%  
171 3% 6%  
172 0.5% 3%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.8% 2%  
175 0.1% 1.2%  
176 0.5% 1.0%  
177 0.3% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.9% 99.0%  
102 1.0% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 8% 92%  
107 3% 84%  
108 5% 81%  
109 4% 77%  
110 3% 72%  
111 7% 69%  
112 8% 62%  
113 10% 54% Median
114 5% 44%  
115 3% 39%  
116 13% 36%  
117 3% 23%  
118 5% 20%  
119 2% 15%  
120 2% 13%  
121 4% 11%  
122 2% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.8% 3%  
125 0.5% 2%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.2% 1.3%  
128 0.7% 1.1%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 0.2% 99.1%  
90 0.5% 98.9%  
91 1.3% 98%  
92 0.7% 97%  
93 3% 96%  
94 4% 94%  
95 2% 89%  
96 8% 88%  
97 6% 80%  
98 3% 74%  
99 5% 71%  
100 6% 66%  
101 2% 61%  
102 9% 58% Median
103 12% 49%  
104 2% 37%  
105 12% 35%  
106 5% 23%  
107 2% 18%  
108 3% 16%  
109 5% 13%  
110 2% 8%  
111 2% 6%  
112 3% 5%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.4% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.4%  
116 0.2% 0.8%  
117 0.2% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 5% 93%  
62 3% 88%  
63 3% 85%  
64 4% 82%  
65 4% 78%  
66 5% 74%  
67 11% 69%  
68 9% 58% Median
69 10% 49% Last Result
70 9% 39%  
71 12% 30%  
72 5% 18%  
73 4% 13%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 0.7% 5%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.3%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 1.5% 99.3%  
55 1.0% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 94%  
58 9% 91%  
59 4% 82%  
60 3% 78%  
61 9% 75%  
62 10% 66%  
63 4% 56%  
64 9% 52% Median
65 7% 43%  
66 7% 36%  
67 4% 29%  
68 8% 25%  
69 4% 17%  
70 2% 13%  
71 4% 11%  
72 2% 7%  
73 1.0% 5%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.4%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 5% 95%  
37 5% 91%  
38 8% 86%  
39 6% 78%  
40 10% 72%  
41 18% 61% Median
42 8% 43%  
43 8% 35%  
44 5% 27%  
45 8% 22%  
46 7% 15% Last Result
47 2% 8%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 465 100% 454–474 451–476 448–478 443–483
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 426 100% 417–436 414–439 411–442 406–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.8% 368–387 365–390 361–393 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 366 88% 354–376 353–378 351–380 344–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 363 83% 352–373 349–376 346–379 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.2% 322–341 319–344 316–348 310–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0% 317–339 314–342 312–344 308–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 314 0% 303–324 299–326 297–327 292–334
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 304 0% 289–309 289–314 288–318 284–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 254–273 252–276 249–280 243–283
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 254–274 252–277 250–279 244–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 160–178 159–180 156–184 152–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 156–176 155–178 152–181 149–184

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.9%  
442 0.2% 99.8%  
443 0.2% 99.6%  
444 0.2% 99.4%  
445 0.2% 99.2%  
446 0.4% 99.0%  
447 0.5% 98.6%  
448 1.0% 98%  
449 1.0% 97%  
450 0.8% 96%  
451 2% 95%  
452 1.2% 94%  
453 1.0% 92%  
454 2% 91%  
455 2% 89%  
456 3% 87%  
457 1.3% 84%  
458 4% 83%  
459 8% 79%  
460 1.1% 71%  
461 6% 70%  
462 4% 64%  
463 5% 61%  
464 3% 56% Median
465 7% 52%  
466 3% 46% Last Result
467 2% 43%  
468 13% 41%  
469 3% 29%  
470 9% 25%  
471 2% 16%  
472 2% 15%  
473 3% 13%  
474 3% 10%  
475 2% 7%  
476 1.1% 5%  
477 1.3% 4%  
478 0.8% 3%  
479 0.5% 2%  
480 0.9% 2%  
481 0.2% 1.0%  
482 0.2% 0.8%  
483 0.2% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.2% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0.1% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.2% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.4%  
408 0.1% 99.1%  
409 0.6% 99.0%  
410 0.6% 98%  
411 0.9% 98%  
412 0.6% 97%  
413 0.5% 96%  
414 1.0% 96%  
415 2% 95%  
416 1.5% 93%  
417 2% 91%  
418 4% 89%  
419 1.4% 85%  
420 6% 84%  
421 8% 78%  
422 6% 70%  
423 3% 63%  
424 5% 60%  
425 4% 55%  
426 2% 51% Median
427 8% 50%  
428 3% 42%  
429 10% 39%  
430 2% 29%  
431 3% 27%  
432 3% 24%  
433 6% 21%  
434 1.2% 16%  
435 1.4% 15%  
436 4% 13%  
437 1.5% 9%  
438 0.6% 8%  
439 2% 7%  
440 0.6% 5%  
441 2% 4%  
442 0.7% 3%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.8% 2%  
445 0.1% 0.7%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.2% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.2%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0.4% 99.7%  
357 0.3% 99.3%  
358 0.2% 99.0%  
359 0.2% 98.7%  
360 0.9% 98.6%  
361 0.5% 98%  
362 0.5% 97%  
363 0.5% 97%  
364 1.1% 96%  
365 1.2% 95%  
366 1.1% 94%  
367 2% 93%  
368 2% 91%  
369 7% 89%  
370 3% 82%  
371 4% 79%  
372 5% 75%  
373 7% 70%  
374 3% 62%  
375 4% 60%  
376 4% 55%  
377 9% 52% Median
378 2% 43%  
379 2% 41%  
380 2% 39%  
381 3% 37%  
382 7% 33%  
383 3% 26%  
384 4% 24%  
385 5% 20%  
386 5% 15%  
387 2% 11%  
388 2% 8%  
389 1.1% 6%  
390 2% 5%  
391 0.6% 4%  
392 0.7% 3%  
393 0.2% 3%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.5%  
397 0.4% 1.3%  
398 0.2% 0.8%  
399 0.3% 0.6%  
400 0.2% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0% 99.2%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.1% 99.1%  
350 0.2% 99.0%  
351 2% 98.8%  
352 0.4% 97%  
353 6% 96%  
354 2% 90%  
355 0.8% 88% Majority
356 4% 87%  
357 1.5% 83%  
358 0.5% 82%  
359 1.5% 81%  
360 0.6% 80%  
361 4% 79%  
362 0.5% 75%  
363 6% 74%  
364 7% 69%  
365 3% 62%  
366 20% 59% Median
367 3% 39%  
368 3% 36%  
369 5% 33%  
370 0.1% 28%  
371 1.4% 28%  
372 0.4% 26%  
373 2% 26%  
374 7% 24%  
375 2% 17%  
376 8% 15%  
377 1.4% 7%  
378 2% 6%  
379 0.9% 4%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.1% 2%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0% 1.4%  
386 0.8% 1.4%  
387 0% 0.6%  
388 0.2% 0.5%  
389 0.2% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0.1% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.4%  
343 0.2% 99.2%  
344 0.2% 99.0%  
345 0.3% 98.8%  
346 1.3% 98%  
347 1.5% 97%  
348 0.4% 96%  
349 0.3% 95%  
350 2% 95%  
351 3% 93%  
352 0.8% 90%  
353 4% 89%  
354 2% 85%  
355 2% 83% Majority
356 8% 81%  
357 3% 73%  
358 2% 70%  
359 3% 68%  
360 1.4% 65%  
361 7% 64%  
362 3% 56% Median
363 13% 53%  
364 2% 40%  
365 6% 39%  
366 2% 33%  
367 8% 31%  
368 4% 23%  
369 2% 19%  
370 2% 18%  
371 3% 16%  
372 3% 14%  
373 2% 11%  
374 0.9% 9%  
375 2% 8%  
376 2% 6%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.8% 3%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.2%  
383 0.6% 0.9%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.2% 99.9%  
310 0.3% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.4%  
312 0.4% 99.2%  
313 0.2% 98.7%  
314 0.4% 98.5%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 0.6% 97%  
319 2% 96%  
320 1.1% 95%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 5% 89%  
324 5% 85%  
325 4% 80%  
326 3% 76%  
327 7% 74%  
328 3% 67%  
329 2% 63%  
330 2% 61%  
331 2% 59%  
332 9% 57% Median
333 4% 48%  
334 4% 45%  
335 3% 40%  
336 7% 38%  
337 5% 30%  
338 4% 25%  
339 3% 21%  
340 7% 18%  
341 2% 11%  
342 2% 9%  
343 1.1% 7%  
344 1.2% 6%  
345 1.1% 5%  
346 0.5% 4%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.9% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 1.3%  
352 0.3% 1.0%  
353 0.4% 0.7%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0.1% 100%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.4%  
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.5% 99.2%  
312 2% 98.7%  
313 0.4% 96%  
314 2% 96%  
315 3% 94%  
316 1.0% 91%  
317 0.2% 90%  
318 0.5% 90%  
319 3% 89%  
320 3% 86%  
321 2% 84%  
322 5% 82%  
323 12% 77%  
324 7% 65%  
325 1.5% 58%  
326 2% 56%  
327 4% 55%  
328 1.4% 51% Median
329 1.2% 49%  
330 8% 48%  
331 12% 40%  
332 4% 29%  
333 2% 24%  
334 2% 22%  
335 5% 20%  
336 2% 15%  
337 0.2% 13%  
338 0.6% 13%  
339 4% 12%  
340 0.6% 8%  
341 1.0% 7%  
342 3% 6%  
343 0.9% 4%  
344 2% 3%  
345 0% 1.2%  
346 0.1% 1.2%  
347 0.4% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.2% 0.5%  
351 0.2% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.4% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.2% 98.9%  
296 0.5% 98.8%  
297 1.1% 98%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 1.3% 96%  
300 1.3% 95%  
301 2% 94%  
302 0.7% 91%  
303 2% 91%  
304 3% 89%  
305 2% 86%  
306 3% 84%  
307 12% 81%  
308 0.7% 69%  
309 9% 68%  
310 1.3% 59%  
311 1.3% 58%  
312 2% 56%  
313 1.3% 54% Median
314 3% 53%  
315 2% 49%  
316 6% 47%  
317 6% 41%  
318 6% 35%  
319 9% 29%  
320 2% 20%  
321 2% 18%  
322 2% 16%  
323 3% 15%  
324 3% 12%  
325 3% 8%  
326 2% 5%  
327 1.3% 4%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.1% 1.4%  
332 0.4% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 0.9%  
334 0.4% 0.8%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0.1% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.7% 99.7%  
285 1.1% 99.0%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 8% 97%  
290 5% 90%  
291 0.3% 85%  
292 0.1% 84%  
293 3% 84%  
294 3% 81%  
295 3% 78%  
296 0% 74%  
297 0.1% 74%  
298 1.2% 74%  
299 7% 73%  
300 3% 66%  
301 0.2% 64%  
302 0.9% 63% Median
303 3% 63%  
304 18% 60%  
305 7% 42%  
306 0% 35%  
307 3% 35%  
308 19% 32%  
309 3% 12%  
310 0.4% 10%  
311 0.1% 9%  
312 0.7% 9%  
313 3% 8%  
314 1.4% 5%  
315 0.1% 4%  
316 0.1% 4%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.7% 2%  
323 0.6% 0.8%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0.1% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.4% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.3%  
246 0.4% 99.0%  
247 0.4% 98.6%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.8% 97%  
252 2% 96%  
253 3% 94%  
254 3% 91%  
255 3% 88%  
256 1.2% 85%  
257 2% 83%  
258 8% 81%  
259 4% 72%  
260 1.4% 69%  
261 3% 68%  
262 2% 64%  
263 6% 62%  
264 4% 57% Median
265 10% 52%  
266 9% 43%  
267 0.9% 34%  
268 1.4% 33%  
269 10% 32%  
270 7% 22%  
271 4% 15%  
272 0.6% 11%  
273 0.9% 11%  
274 2% 10%  
275 2% 8%  
276 2% 6%  
277 0.6% 4%  
278 0.8% 4%  
279 0.3% 3%  
280 0.2% 3%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 1.4% 2%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.2% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0.1% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.7%  
244 0.4% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.2%  
246 0.1% 99.1%  
247 0.4% 99.0%  
248 0.6% 98.6%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 1.4% 98%  
251 1.0% 96%  
252 1.1% 95%  
253 1.3% 94%  
254 3% 93%  
255 2% 89%  
256 1.4% 87%  
257 7% 86%  
258 2% 79%  
259 2% 77%  
260 6% 75%  
261 8% 69%  
262 2% 61%  
263 9% 59%  
264 5% 50% Median
265 4% 45%  
266 6% 41%  
267 3% 36%  
268 2% 32%  
269 6% 31%  
270 4% 24%  
271 2% 20%  
272 4% 18%  
273 4% 14%  
274 2% 10%  
275 1.0% 8%  
276 1.4% 7%  
277 1.4% 6%  
278 0.9% 5%  
279 1.4% 4%  
280 0.6% 2%  
281 0.3% 2%  
282 0.3% 1.4%  
283 0.3% 1.1%  
284 0.2% 0.8%  
285 0.1% 0.6%  
286 0.3% 0.5%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0.1% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.4% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.4%  
154 0.4% 99.3%  
155 0.4% 98.9%  
156 1.5% 98%  
157 0.4% 97%  
158 0.5% 97%  
159 4% 96%  
160 3% 92%  
161 3% 89%  
162 2% 86%  
163 1.2% 84%  
164 6% 83%  
165 0.9% 76%  
166 9% 75%  
167 1.5% 66%  
168 4% 65%  
169 3% 61%  
170 6% 58% Median
171 7% 53%  
172 9% 46%  
173 0.7% 37%  
174 15% 36%  
175 1.3% 21%  
176 7% 20%  
177 0.8% 12%  
178 4% 12%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.0% 6%  
181 0.8% 5%  
182 0.4% 4%  
183 0.3% 3%  
184 1.1% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.8% 2%  
187 0% 0.7%  
188 0.3% 0.7%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.5%  
150 0.4% 99.4%  
151 0.7% 99.0%  
152 1.0% 98%  
153 1.2% 97%  
154 1.0% 96%  
155 4% 95%  
156 2% 92%  
157 1.5% 90%  
158 2% 88%  
159 3% 86%  
160 8% 83%  
161 5% 75%  
162 1.4% 70%  
163 9% 69%  
164 4% 60%  
165 11% 55%  
166 3% 44% Median
167 2% 41%  
168 5% 39%  
169 3% 33%  
170 2% 30%  
171 8% 28%  
172 2% 20%  
173 3% 18%  
174 3% 15%  
175 1.5% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 1.4% 8%  
178 2% 7%  
179 1.4% 5%  
180 0.4% 3%  
181 2% 3%  
182 0.2% 1.2%  
183 0.2% 1.0%  
184 0.4% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations