Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 2–4 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.7–24.5% 21.3–24.9% 21.0–25.2% 20.3–25.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.3% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–22.1% 18.4–22.4% 17.7–23.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.3–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 174 165–186 164–188 160–191 153–196
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 154 145–164 142–168 139–170 135–174
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 106–124 103–126 101–127 96–132
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 99 92–107 89–109 87–111 82–116
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 61–75 60–79 59–80 55–85
Die Linke 69 61 55–68 53–70 52–73 48–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 31–40 30–42 29–45 27–47

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.3% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.1% 99.3%  
156 0.1% 99.1%  
157 0.1% 99.0%  
158 0.5% 98.9%  
159 0.4% 98%  
160 1.3% 98%  
161 0.9% 97%  
162 0.3% 96%  
163 0.5% 96%  
164 2% 95%  
165 3% 93%  
166 6% 89%  
167 7% 83%  
168 3% 76%  
169 0.6% 73%  
170 1.2% 73%  
171 3% 72%  
172 7% 69%  
173 5% 62%  
174 11% 57% Median
175 4% 46%  
176 0.7% 43%  
177 2% 42%  
178 4% 40%  
179 9% 36%  
180 8% 28%  
181 2% 19%  
182 0.6% 17%  
183 0.5% 16%  
184 0.9% 16%  
185 4% 15%  
186 3% 11%  
187 2% 8%  
188 3% 6%  
189 0.2% 3%  
190 0.2% 3%  
191 0.5% 3%  
192 0.8% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0% 0.5%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.4%  
199 0.2% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.3% 99.7%  
136 0.4% 99.3%  
137 0.4% 99.0%  
138 0.5% 98.6%  
139 0.8% 98%  
140 0.5% 97%  
141 0.8% 97%  
142 2% 96%  
143 0.8% 94%  
144 2% 94%  
145 2% 91%  
146 2% 89%  
147 3% 87%  
148 2% 84%  
149 2% 82%  
150 2% 80%  
151 7% 78%  
152 6% 71%  
153 4% 65%  
154 14% 61% Median
155 5% 47%  
156 4% 43%  
157 3% 39%  
158 2% 35%  
159 8% 33%  
160 2% 25%  
161 5% 23%  
162 2% 17%  
163 4% 15%  
164 2% 11%  
165 1.4% 10%  
166 0.4% 8%  
167 2% 8%  
168 1.2% 6%  
169 0.9% 5%  
170 2% 4%  
171 0.7% 2%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.2% 0.8%  
174 0.2% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.4% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.4% 99.3%  
99 0.6% 98.9%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 0.4% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 1.1% 95%  
104 1.3% 94%  
105 2% 93%  
106 3% 91%  
107 7% 88%  
108 4% 81%  
109 6% 77%  
110 8% 71%  
111 6% 63%  
112 2% 57%  
113 6% 55% Median
114 3% 49%  
115 3% 46%  
116 10% 43%  
117 3% 33%  
118 4% 30%  
119 6% 25%  
120 3% 19%  
121 4% 16%  
122 1.1% 13%  
123 0.9% 12%  
124 2% 11%  
125 2% 8%  
126 3% 6%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.2% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.9%  
132 0.3% 0.7%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.3%  
136 0.2% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.5%  
84 0.3% 99.3%  
85 0.3% 99.1%  
86 0.6% 98.8%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 0.7% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 1.2% 94%  
91 2% 93%  
92 2% 91%  
93 5% 89%  
94 7% 84%  
95 8% 77%  
96 3% 69%  
97 6% 66%  
98 6% 60%  
99 8% 54% Median
100 2% 46%  
101 6% 44%  
102 6% 38%  
103 10% 32%  
104 3% 21%  
105 4% 18%  
106 1.3% 14%  
107 6% 13%  
108 1.4% 7%  
109 2% 6%  
110 1.1% 4%  
111 0.9% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.3% 1.2%  
115 0.3% 0.9%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.4%  
57 0.6% 99.0%  
58 0.5% 98%  
59 1.4% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 3% 92%  
62 2% 90%  
63 4% 87%  
64 5% 83%  
65 4% 79%  
66 7% 74%  
67 10% 67%  
68 6% 57%  
69 3% 51% Median
70 4% 49%  
71 11% 45%  
72 12% 34%  
73 2% 23%  
74 5% 20%  
75 6% 15%  
76 2% 9%  
77 1.3% 8%  
78 1.4% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 3% Last Result
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.2%  
50 0.6% 98.8%  
51 0.3% 98%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 2% 93%  
55 5% 91%  
56 6% 86%  
57 5% 80%  
58 1.4% 75%  
59 5% 74%  
60 12% 69%  
61 8% 57% Median
62 8% 48%  
63 12% 40%  
64 3% 28%  
65 1.1% 25%  
66 6% 24%  
67 6% 18%  
68 3% 12%  
69 2% 9% Last Result
70 3% 7%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 0.1% 3%  
73 0.5% 3%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.4% 99.6%  
28 0.8% 99.2%  
29 2% 98%  
30 4% 97%  
31 5% 93%  
32 8% 88%  
33 13% 79%  
34 8% 66%  
35 3% 58%  
36 5% 54% Median
37 9% 49%  
38 14% 40%  
39 10% 26%  
40 7% 16%  
41 2% 9%  
42 2% 6%  
43 0.8% 4%  
44 0.8% 4%  
45 0.9% 3%  
46 1.2% 2% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 465 100% 453–475 451–480 448–482 441–487
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 434 100% 423–447 419–449 417–452 411–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 98% 361–386 359–391 356–392 350–398
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 366 89% 354–376 350–381 347–383 342–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 360 71% 347–371 343–374 341–377 334–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 343 10% 331–354 328–358 325–361 319–367
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 2% 323–348 318–350 317–353 311–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 304 0% 292–317 289–320 287–324 282–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 290 0% 279–301 276–306 272–308 267–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 263–287 260–288 258–291 251–299
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 259 0% 248–272 243–274 241–277 238–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 159–178 156–180 153–182 147–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 160 0% 151–170 147–173 146–176 141–181

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.2% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.1% 99.6%  
442 0% 99.5%  
443 0.3% 99.4%  
444 0.1% 99.1%  
445 0.2% 99.0%  
446 0.1% 98.8%  
447 0.6% 98.7%  
448 0.9% 98%  
449 0.9% 97%  
450 0.8% 96%  
451 1.3% 96%  
452 0.4% 94%  
453 5% 94%  
454 2% 89%  
455 5% 87%  
456 1.0% 82%  
457 1.2% 81%  
458 3% 80%  
459 5% 76%  
460 5% 71%  
461 2% 66%  
462 0.6% 64%  
463 4% 63% Median
464 8% 59%  
465 7% 52%  
466 2% 45% Last Result
467 3% 43%  
468 1.3% 40%  
469 3% 38%  
470 7% 35%  
471 10% 29%  
472 1.2% 18%  
473 1.1% 17%  
474 0.9% 16%  
475 5% 15%  
476 2% 10%  
477 1.4% 8%  
478 0.2% 6%  
479 0.5% 6%  
480 2% 6%  
481 1.0% 4%  
482 0.6% 3%  
483 0.3% 2%  
484 0.1% 2%  
485 0.3% 2%  
486 0.6% 1.3%  
487 0.3% 0.7%  
488 0% 0.4%  
489 0.1% 0.3%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.2% 99.8%  
409 0% 99.7%  
410 0% 99.6%  
411 0.3% 99.6%  
412 0.5% 99.3%  
413 0.1% 98.9%  
414 0.3% 98.8%  
415 0.5% 98.5%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 2% 98%  
418 0.3% 96%  
419 0.7% 96%  
420 1.2% 95%  
421 2% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 1.0% 90%  
424 2% 89%  
425 5% 87%  
426 3% 82%  
427 2% 79%  
428 3% 77%  
429 2% 74%  
430 5% 72%  
431 3% 67%  
432 0.9% 64%  
433 11% 63% Median
434 4% 52%  
435 2% 48%  
436 3% 46%  
437 2% 43%  
438 6% 41%  
439 7% 35%  
440 1.4% 28%  
441 1.3% 26%  
442 4% 25%  
443 3% 21%  
444 3% 18%  
445 0.4% 16%  
446 2% 15%  
447 7% 14%  
448 1.4% 6%  
449 0.8% 5%  
450 0.6% 4%  
451 1.0% 4%  
452 0.4% 3%  
453 0.9% 2%  
454 0.2% 1.4%  
455 0.4% 1.2%  
456 0.2% 0.8%  
457 0.1% 0.6%  
458 0.1% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.4% 99.4%  
352 0.3% 99.0%  
353 0.1% 98.7%  
354 0.7% 98.6%  
355 0.2% 98% Majority
356 0.5% 98%  
357 0.5% 97%  
358 2% 97%  
359 1.1% 95%  
360 3% 94%  
361 2% 91%  
362 0.8% 89%  
363 1.0% 88%  
364 1.4% 87%  
365 1.3% 86%  
366 1.4% 84%  
367 7% 83%  
368 4% 76%  
369 11% 72%  
370 2% 61%  
371 2% 59%  
372 3% 58% Median
373 2% 55%  
374 6% 53%  
375 9% 47%  
376 1.4% 38%  
377 9% 37%  
378 1.1% 28%  
379 1.3% 27%  
380 3% 26%  
381 0.7% 23%  
382 1.2% 22%  
383 6% 21%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 13%  
386 2% 10%  
387 1.4% 8%  
388 0.6% 7%  
389 0.8% 6%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 1.3% 5%  
392 2% 4%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.8% 2%  
395 0.2% 0.9%  
396 0.1% 0.8%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.2% 0.4%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0.1% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7%  
341 0% 99.5%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.3% 99.4%  
344 0.3% 99.2%  
345 0.2% 98.9%  
346 0.9% 98.7%  
347 0.9% 98%  
348 1.0% 97%  
349 0.2% 96%  
350 2% 96%  
351 0.3% 94%  
352 0.8% 93%  
353 1.4% 93%  
354 2% 91%  
355 2% 89% Majority
356 3% 87%  
357 4% 84%  
358 3% 80%  
359 1.2% 77%  
360 2% 75%  
361 6% 74%  
362 3% 67%  
363 7% 64%  
364 3% 57% Median
365 4% 55%  
366 9% 51%  
367 2% 42%  
368 1.1% 40%  
369 0.6% 38%  
370 4% 38%  
371 7% 33%  
372 0.9% 27%  
373 5% 26%  
374 3% 21%  
375 1.5% 18%  
376 7% 17%  
377 0.2% 10%  
378 2% 9%  
379 0.5% 7%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.6% 5%  
382 0.7% 5%  
383 2% 4%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.1% 1.2%  
388 0.5% 1.1%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.2% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.3% 99.7%  
335 0.1% 99.3%  
336 0.1% 99.2%  
337 0.2% 99.1%  
338 0.2% 98.9%  
339 0.2% 98.8%  
340 1.0% 98.6%  
341 0.4% 98%  
342 2% 97%  
343 0.4% 95%  
344 0.5% 95%  
345 0.6% 94%  
346 1.5% 94%  
347 5% 92%  
348 3% 88%  
349 1.2% 84%  
350 3% 83%  
351 0.8% 80%  
352 3% 79%  
353 3% 76%  
354 2% 72%  
355 3% 71% Majority
356 9% 68%  
357 3% 59%  
358 2% 55% Median
359 3% 53%  
360 1.1% 50%  
361 3% 49%  
362 9% 46%  
363 9% 37%  
364 3% 28%  
365 4% 24%  
366 2% 21%  
367 1.1% 19%  
368 2% 18%  
369 2% 16%  
370 1.2% 14%  
371 5% 13%  
372 2% 8%  
373 0.4% 6%  
374 0.8% 5%  
375 0.4% 4%  
376 0.2% 4%  
377 2% 4%  
378 0.8% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.3%  
380 0.2% 0.9%  
381 0.2% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.2% 99.6%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.3%  
322 0.3% 99.3%  
323 0.7% 99.0%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 0.4% 97%  
327 1.3% 97%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 1.3% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 2% 91%  
332 1.5% 90%  
333 5% 88%  
334 2% 84%  
335 4% 81%  
336 2% 78%  
337 4% 76%  
338 2% 71%  
339 5% 69%  
340 3% 64%  
341 5% 61%  
342 2% 56% Median
343 4% 54%  
344 3% 50%  
345 7% 46%  
346 4% 39%  
347 5% 35%  
348 2% 30%  
349 6% 28%  
350 3% 22%  
351 2% 19%  
352 1.4% 16%  
353 4% 15%  
354 1.1% 11%  
355 1.2% 10% Majority
356 1.4% 9%  
357 0.7% 7%  
358 2% 6%  
359 0.2% 4%  
360 1.0% 4%  
361 0.9% 3%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.4%  
365 0.1% 1.0%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.2% 0.6%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.2% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.5%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.3%  
314 0.2% 99.2%  
315 0.8% 99.1%  
316 0.3% 98%  
317 2% 98%  
318 1.3% 96%  
319 0.5% 95%  
320 0.8% 94%  
321 0.6% 94%  
322 1.4% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 2% 87%  
326 6% 86%  
327 1.2% 79%  
328 0.7% 78%  
329 3% 77%  
330 1.3% 74%  
331 1.1% 73%  
332 9% 72%  
333 1.4% 63%  
334 9% 62% Median
335 6% 53%  
336 2% 47%  
337 3% 45%  
338 2% 42%  
339 2% 41%  
340 11% 39%  
341 4% 28%  
342 7% 24%  
343 1.4% 17%  
344 1.3% 16%  
345 1.4% 14%  
346 1.0% 13%  
347 0.8% 12%  
348 2% 11%  
349 3% 9%  
350 1.1% 6%  
351 2% 5%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.5% 3%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.7% 2% Majority
356 0.1% 1.4%  
357 0.3% 1.3%  
358 0.4% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.6%  
360 0.2% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0.1% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.3% 99.3%  
284 0.1% 99.0%  
285 0.6% 98.9%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.8% 97%  
289 2% 97%  
290 2% 94%  
291 1.4% 93%  
292 2% 91%  
293 0.8% 90%  
294 2% 89%  
295 0.5% 87%  
296 4% 86%  
297 6% 82%  
298 2% 77%  
299 2% 75%  
300 3% 73%  
301 5% 70%  
302 5% 65%  
303 4% 60% Median
304 8% 56%  
305 5% 49%  
306 3% 44%  
307 4% 41%  
308 3% 37%  
309 5% 34%  
310 3% 29%  
311 5% 27%  
312 5% 21%  
313 3% 17%  
314 0.8% 13%  
315 1.2% 13%  
316 1.0% 11%  
317 0.9% 10%  
318 2% 9%  
319 1.1% 7%  
320 2% 6%  
321 0.6% 4%  
322 0.2% 4%  
323 0.8% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.7% 2%  
327 0.7% 1.1%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.5%  
268 0.2% 99.4%  
269 0.3% 99.1%  
270 0.3% 98.8%  
271 0.8% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.9% 97%  
274 0.3% 96%  
275 0.4% 96%  
276 1.4% 96%  
277 0.6% 94%  
278 4% 94%  
279 3% 90%  
280 5% 87%  
281 2% 83%  
282 3% 81%  
283 2% 78%  
284 2% 76%  
285 3% 74%  
286 4% 71%  
287 1.4% 67%  
288 7% 66%  
289 3% 59% Median
290 11% 56%  
291 3% 45%  
292 9% 42%  
293 2% 34%  
294 1.5% 32%  
295 2% 30%  
296 0.8% 28%  
297 5% 28%  
298 6% 23%  
299 4% 17%  
300 2% 13%  
301 1.3% 11%  
302 1.2% 9%  
303 1.3% 8%  
304 0.4% 7%  
305 0.6% 6%  
306 1.4% 6%  
307 2% 4%  
308 1.0% 3%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.6% 1.4%  
311 0.2% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.6%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.2% 99.8%  
251 0.5% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.0%  
253 0.1% 98.9%  
254 0% 98.8%  
255 0.4% 98.8%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.7% 98%  
259 1.5% 97%  
260 2% 96%  
261 1.0% 94%  
262 2% 93%  
263 1.1% 91%  
264 4% 89%  
265 10% 85%  
266 0.4% 75%  
267 2% 75%  
268 2% 73%  
269 1.3% 71%  
270 2% 70%  
271 2% 68%  
272 3% 66%  
273 4% 63% Median
274 13% 59%  
275 5% 46%  
276 1.4% 41%  
277 7% 40%  
278 5% 33%  
279 8% 28%  
280 0.6% 20%  
281 2% 20%  
282 1.4% 17%  
283 0.7% 16%  
284 1.0% 15%  
285 1.0% 14%  
286 0.7% 13%  
287 6% 13%  
288 2% 7%  
289 0.9% 4%  
290 1.0% 4%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.6% 2%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.2% 1.2%  
295 0.2% 1.1%  
296 0.1% 0.9%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.2% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.7%  
238 0.7% 99.7%  
239 0.8% 99.0%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.4% 97%  
243 2% 97%  
244 0.6% 95%  
245 0.9% 94%  
246 0.3% 93%  
247 2% 93%  
248 2% 92%  
249 2% 89%  
250 0.6% 87%  
251 1.4% 87%  
252 2% 85%  
253 8% 83%  
254 5% 75%  
255 2% 70%  
256 3% 68%  
257 4% 65%  
258 9% 61%  
259 11% 52% Median
260 3% 42%  
261 1.4% 39%  
262 1.1% 38%  
263 2% 37%  
264 3% 34%  
265 2% 32%  
266 0.9% 29%  
267 2% 29%  
268 8% 26%  
269 2% 18%  
270 2% 16%  
271 0.9% 14%  
272 4% 14%  
273 4% 10%  
274 1.2% 6%  
275 0.8% 5%  
276 0.8% 4%  
277 0.8% 3%  
278 0.9% 2%  
279 0.3% 1.3%  
280 0.1% 0.9%  
281 0.1% 0.9%  
282 0.1% 0.7%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.2% 0.5%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.2% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.1% 99.2%  
150 0.1% 99.1%  
151 0.4% 99.0%  
152 0.3% 98.6%  
153 2% 98%  
154 0.2% 96%  
155 0.8% 96%  
156 1.1% 96%  
157 0.3% 94%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 3% 88%  
161 7% 85%  
162 2% 78%  
163 4% 76%  
164 2% 72%  
165 3% 71%  
166 13% 68%  
167 4% 55%  
168 8% 51% Median
169 1.1% 43%  
170 3% 42%  
171 5% 39%  
172 4% 34%  
173 1.1% 29%  
174 6% 28%  
175 9% 22%  
176 1.2% 13%  
177 0.8% 12%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 2% 7%  
181 1.3% 5%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.1% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.2% 1.3%  
187 0.1% 1.1%  
188 0.6% 1.0%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.4%  
143 0.2% 99.2%  
144 0.5% 99.1%  
145 0.9% 98.6%  
146 2% 98%  
147 1.4% 96%  
148 1.0% 95%  
149 2% 94%  
150 0.9% 92%  
151 2% 91%  
152 4% 89%  
153 2% 85%  
154 2% 83%  
155 8% 81%  
156 2% 73%  
157 8% 71%  
158 1.2% 63%  
159 4% 61%  
160 8% 58% Median
161 6% 50%  
162 2% 44%  
163 6% 41%  
164 3% 35%  
165 5% 32%  
166 8% 27%  
167 4% 19%  
168 1.2% 15%  
169 1.3% 14%  
170 3% 13%  
171 2% 10%  
172 0.7% 8%  
173 3% 7%  
174 1.1% 4%  
175 0.4% 3%  
176 0.7% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.2% 2%  
179 0.7% 1.5%  
180 0.1% 0.8%  
181 0.3% 0.7%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

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Calculations