Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 28 November–4 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.1% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.3–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.1% 11.8–14.4% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 163–178 161–183 159–186 153–191
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 141–160 139–161 137–164 133–169
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 113–129 110–132 109–134 105–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 99 91–104 88–107 86–108 83–115
Die Linke 69 69 63–75 61–77 59–78 55–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–66 53–68 52–70 49–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–45 33–46 33–48 30–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0.1% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.2% 99.2%  
155 0.2% 99.1%  
156 0.3% 98.8%  
157 0.2% 98.5%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 1.0% 98%  
160 0.6% 97%  
161 3% 96%  
162 2% 93%  
163 8% 91%  
164 7% 83%  
165 4% 76%  
166 4% 72%  
167 3% 68%  
168 2% 65%  
169 4% 63%  
170 2% 60%  
171 4% 58%  
172 7% 54% Median
173 3% 46%  
174 10% 43%  
175 4% 33%  
176 5% 29%  
177 10% 23%  
178 3% 13%  
179 2% 10%  
180 2% 8%  
181 0.8% 6%  
182 0.4% 6%  
183 1.3% 5%  
184 0.2% 4%  
185 0.8% 4%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.8% 2%  
188 0.2% 2%  
189 0.7% 1.4%  
190 0.1% 0.7%  
191 0.4% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.3% 99.4%  
135 0.3% 99.1%  
136 1.0% 98.9%  
137 0.5% 98%  
138 0.4% 97%  
139 3% 97%  
140 0.6% 94%  
141 6% 93%  
142 1.2% 88%  
143 2% 87%  
144 9% 84%  
145 5% 76%  
146 2% 71%  
147 6% 69%  
148 3% 63%  
149 6% 60%  
150 7% 54% Median
151 6% 47%  
152 8% 41%  
153 4% 33%  
154 4% 29%  
155 1.0% 25%  
156 5% 24%  
157 1.1% 18%  
158 4% 17%  
159 1.4% 13%  
160 4% 12%  
161 3% 7%  
162 0.6% 5%  
163 2% 4%  
164 0.3% 3%  
165 0.8% 2%  
166 0.5% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.2%  
168 0.2% 0.7%  
169 0.1% 0.6%  
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.4%  
107 0.5% 98.9%  
108 0.8% 98%  
109 2% 98%  
110 1.2% 96%  
111 0.6% 94%  
112 4% 94%  
113 2% 90%  
114 5% 89%  
115 3% 83%  
116 1.3% 80%  
117 6% 79%  
118 6% 72%  
119 5% 66%  
120 10% 61%  
121 4% 50% Median
122 6% 46%  
123 5% 40%  
124 9% 35%  
125 4% 26%  
126 0.6% 21%  
127 6% 21%  
128 0.6% 15%  
129 6% 14%  
130 1.2% 8%  
131 0.3% 7%  
132 3% 7%  
133 0.3% 3%  
134 1.4% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.7% 99.0%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 0.6% 97%  
88 3% 97%  
89 2% 93%  
90 0.9% 92%  
91 0.8% 91%  
92 1.0% 90%  
93 2% 89%  
94 3% 87% Last Result
95 3% 84%  
96 13% 80%  
97 10% 67%  
98 7% 58%  
99 13% 51% Median
100 7% 38%  
101 7% 32%  
102 6% 25%  
103 5% 19%  
104 5% 14%  
105 2% 9%  
106 2% 7%  
107 3% 5%  
108 0.8% 3%  
109 0.3% 2%  
110 0.3% 2%  
111 0.3% 1.3%  
112 0.1% 1.0%  
113 0.2% 0.9%  
114 0.1% 0.7%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.2% 99.3%  
57 0.3% 99.1%  
58 0.7% 98.8%  
59 0.9% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 6% 87%  
65 11% 82%  
66 9% 71%  
67 4% 62%  
68 5% 59%  
69 9% 53% Last Result, Median
70 4% 44%  
71 6% 40%  
72 8% 34%  
73 2% 26%  
74 6% 25%  
75 10% 19%  
76 2% 9%  
77 5% 7%  
78 1.5% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.2%  
51 0.5% 98.9%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 3% 91%  
55 6% 88%  
56 11% 83%  
57 7% 71%  
58 10% 65%  
59 3% 55%  
60 8% 51% Median
61 10% 43%  
62 5% 33%  
63 7% 28%  
64 2% 21%  
65 7% 19%  
66 2% 11%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.7%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.5%  
32 1.3% 99.0%  
33 4% 98%  
34 2% 94%  
35 4% 92%  
36 8% 88%  
37 7% 80%  
38 10% 72%  
39 10% 62%  
40 8% 52% Median
41 11% 44%  
42 15% 33%  
43 4% 19%  
44 4% 14%  
45 4% 11%  
46 2% 7% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.3% 1.4%  
50 0.6% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 471–493 470–496 469–497 463–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 418 100% 414–430 413–437 406–438 402–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 391 100% 380–402 378–405 375–408 371–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 369 98% 359–381 356–384 355–387 349–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 77% 351–372 349–375 345–378 340–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 340 2% 328–350 325–353 322–354 317–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 0.4% 321–344 318–346 316–349 310–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 331 0.3% 322–342 318–345 315–347 311–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 310 0% 299–319 297–322 293–326 288–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 271 0% 261–280 259–284 254–287 251–292
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 262–284 257–285 255–286 250–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 191 0% 178–198 176–199 175–204 169–207
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 173–192 169–193 166–196 163–200

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0.1% 99.7%  
461 0.1% 99.6%  
462 0% 99.6%  
463 0.1% 99.5%  
464 0.2% 99.4%  
465 0.5% 99.2%  
466 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
467 0.4% 98.5%  
468 0.6% 98%  
469 2% 98%  
470 3% 95%  
471 6% 92%  
472 0.6% 87%  
473 1.3% 86%  
474 0.5% 85%  
475 5% 84%  
476 8% 79%  
477 8% 72%  
478 8% 64%  
479 2% 56%  
480 1.0% 54%  
481 4% 53%  
482 3% 49%  
483 6% 46% Median
484 2% 40%  
485 0.9% 39%  
486 1.3% 38%  
487 6% 36%  
488 7% 30%  
489 0.8% 23%  
490 8% 22%  
491 0.8% 14%  
492 1.3% 13%  
493 2% 12%  
494 3% 9%  
495 0.6% 7%  
496 2% 6%  
497 1.1% 4%  
498 1.0% 2%  
499 0.6% 1.4%  
500 0.4% 0.9%  
501 0.1% 0.5%  
502 0.1% 0.4%  
503 0.1% 0.3%  
504 0% 0.2%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9% Last Result
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.8%  
397 0% 99.8%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.2% 99.6%  
403 0.3% 99.5%  
404 0.3% 99.2%  
405 0.4% 98.9%  
406 1.0% 98%  
407 0.9% 97%  
408 0.4% 97%  
409 0.2% 96%  
410 0.1% 96%  
411 0.1% 96%  
412 0.5% 96%  
413 3% 95%  
414 9% 93%  
415 15% 84%  
416 13% 69%  
417 4% 56%  
418 5% 52%  
419 2% 47%  
420 0.5% 45%  
421 0.2% 45%  
422 2% 45% Median
423 4% 42%  
424 6% 38%  
425 7% 32%  
426 4% 25%  
427 6% 21%  
428 3% 15%  
429 2% 12%  
430 1.0% 10%  
431 0.3% 9%  
432 0.1% 9%  
433 0.1% 9%  
434 0.2% 9%  
435 0.5% 9%  
436 1.2% 8%  
437 2% 7%  
438 3% 5%  
439 0.8% 2%  
440 0.5% 1.3%  
441 0.2% 0.8%  
442 0.1% 0.6%  
443 0% 0.5%  
444 0% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.8%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.3% 99.7%  
372 0.9% 99.4%  
373 0% 98%  
374 0.5% 98%  
375 0.6% 98%  
376 0.3% 97%  
377 1.0% 97%  
378 4% 96%  
379 0.8% 92%  
380 2% 92%  
381 3% 90%  
382 3% 87%  
383 0.1% 84%  
384 2% 84%  
385 4% 81%  
386 0.3% 77%  
387 1.5% 77%  
388 14% 76%  
389 2% 61%  
390 0.8% 60%  
391 11% 59%  
392 7% 48%  
393 0.5% 42% Median
394 4% 41%  
395 5% 37%  
396 2% 31%  
397 2% 29%  
398 11% 26%  
399 2% 16%  
400 0.6% 14%  
401 1.1% 13%  
402 3% 12%  
403 0.4% 9%  
404 1.1% 9%  
405 3% 7%  
406 0.6% 5%  
407 0.9% 4%  
408 1.4% 3%  
409 0.6% 2%  
410 0.1% 1.4%  
411 0.6% 1.4%  
412 0.1% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.3% 0.6%  
415 0.2% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0.1% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.2% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.3% 99.4%  
351 0.1% 99.1%  
352 0.4% 99.0%  
353 0.6% 98.5%  
354 0.3% 98%  
355 2% 98% Majority
356 4% 96%  
357 0.6% 92%  
358 1.1% 92%  
359 3% 91%  
360 0.5% 87%  
361 6% 87%  
362 3% 80%  
363 4% 77%  
364 6% 73%  
365 4% 67%  
366 5% 63%  
367 4% 58%  
368 4% 54%  
369 2% 50%  
370 5% 48%  
371 3% 43% Median
372 5% 39%  
373 11% 34%  
374 2% 23%  
375 2% 21%  
376 2% 19%  
377 2% 17%  
378 2% 15%  
379 2% 14%  
380 0.8% 12%  
381 4% 11%  
382 1.3% 7%  
383 0.7% 6%  
384 1.5% 5%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.7% 3%  
387 0.3% 3%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.8% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.2%  
391 0.4% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.2% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.3% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.4%  
342 0.4% 99.3%  
343 0.6% 98.8%  
344 0.4% 98%  
345 0.7% 98%  
346 0.5% 97%  
347 0.6% 97%  
348 0.7% 96%  
349 0.4% 95%  
350 2% 95%  
351 3% 93%  
352 5% 90%  
353 5% 85%  
354 3% 80%  
355 5% 77% Majority
356 4% 72%  
357 6% 68%  
358 6% 62%  
359 5% 55%  
360 0.7% 51%  
361 5% 50%  
362 6% 45% Median
363 4% 38%  
364 2% 35%  
365 3% 33%  
366 4% 30%  
367 1.2% 26%  
368 4% 25%  
369 3% 21%  
370 4% 17%  
371 1.5% 13%  
372 2% 11%  
373 2% 10%  
374 1.3% 8%  
375 2% 7%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 1.3% 4%  
378 0.8% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.4% 99.5%  
319 0.3% 99.1%  
320 0.8% 98.8%  
321 0.3% 98%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.7% 97%  
324 0.5% 97%  
325 1.5% 96%  
326 0.7% 95%  
327 1.3% 94%  
328 4% 93%  
329 0.8% 89%  
330 2% 88%  
331 2% 86%  
332 2% 85%  
333 2% 83%  
334 2% 81%  
335 2% 79%  
336 11% 77%  
337 5% 66%  
338 3% 61%  
339 5% 57%  
340 2% 52% Median
341 4% 50%  
342 4% 46%  
343 5% 42%  
344 4% 37%  
345 6% 33%  
346 4% 27%  
347 3% 23%  
348 6% 20%  
349 0.5% 13%  
350 3% 13%  
351 1.1% 9%  
352 0.6% 8%  
353 4% 8%  
354 2% 4%  
355 0.3% 2% Majority
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.5%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.3% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0.2% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0.1% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.2% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.6%  
310 0% 99.5%  
311 0.6% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98.6%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 2% 98%  
317 0.5% 96%  
318 2% 95%  
319 0.7% 93%  
320 1.5% 92%  
321 2% 91%  
322 3% 89%  
323 2% 86%  
324 1.2% 84%  
325 4% 83%  
326 6% 79%  
327 4% 73%  
328 4% 69%  
329 7% 66%  
330 3% 59%  
331 5% 56%  
332 5% 51%  
333 7% 46% Median
334 2% 39%  
335 4% 37%  
336 3% 33%  
337 5% 30%  
338 1.1% 25%  
339 9% 24%  
340 1.2% 15%  
341 1.3% 14%  
342 1.3% 13%  
343 0.8% 11%  
344 3% 11%  
345 1.0% 7%  
346 2% 6%  
347 1.2% 5%  
348 0.3% 4%  
349 1.0% 3%  
350 1.2% 2%  
351 0.1% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 1.0%  
353 0.4% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0.2% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.4% 99.5%  
312 0.2% 99.1%  
313 0.4% 99.0%  
314 0.3% 98.5%  
315 2% 98%  
316 0.3% 96%  
317 0.4% 95%  
318 0.7% 95%  
319 0.7% 94%  
320 0.9% 94%  
321 1.4% 93%  
322 7% 91%  
323 6% 84%  
324 1.5% 78%  
325 6% 77%  
326 4% 71%  
327 2% 66%  
328 3% 65%  
329 7% 62%  
330 2% 55%  
331 7% 53% Median
332 4% 46%  
333 5% 42%  
334 7% 37%  
335 2% 30%  
336 3% 28%  
337 4% 24%  
338 2% 21%  
339 2% 19%  
340 1.0% 16%  
341 4% 16%  
342 3% 12%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.4% 7%  
345 2% 6%  
346 0.6% 4%  
347 1.0% 4%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.3% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0.1% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.3% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0.2% 99.1%  
291 0.3% 98.9%  
292 0.6% 98.7%  
293 0.8% 98%  
294 0.3% 97%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 0.4% 96%  
297 2% 96%  
298 2% 94%  
299 7% 92%  
300 0.1% 85%  
301 9% 85%  
302 0.6% 76%  
303 4% 75%  
304 0.9% 71%  
305 3% 70%  
306 2% 67%  
307 5% 65%  
308 0.5% 59%  
309 7% 59%  
310 2% 52%  
311 10% 50% Median
312 9% 40%  
313 3% 31%  
314 2% 28%  
315 4% 26%  
316 4% 22%  
317 2% 18%  
318 5% 16%  
319 2% 11%  
320 3% 9%  
321 0.2% 6%  
322 1.0% 5%  
323 0.6% 4%  
324 0.9% 4%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.5% 3%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.7% 1.4%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.2% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.4% 99.6%  
252 0.2% 99.3%  
253 0.3% 99.1%  
254 2% 98.8%  
255 0.4% 97%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.3% 97%  
258 0.9% 96%  
259 4% 95%  
260 0.9% 91%  
261 4% 91%  
262 2% 87%  
263 4% 84%  
264 6% 80%  
265 1.1% 74%  
266 5% 73%  
267 1.2% 69%  
268 8% 67%  
269 2% 59%  
270 6% 57%  
271 8% 51%  
272 2% 43% Median
273 3% 41%  
274 6% 38%  
275 7% 32%  
276 2% 25%  
277 6% 23%  
278 2% 17%  
279 2% 14%  
280 2% 12%  
281 2% 10%  
282 0.9% 8%  
283 0.9% 7%  
284 1.3% 6%  
285 1.2% 5%  
286 0.7% 3%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.3% 2%  
290 0.5% 1.3%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.2% 99.7%  
251 0.3% 99.5%  
252 0% 99.2%  
253 0% 99.2%  
254 0.8% 99.1%  
255 1.1% 98%  
256 0.7% 97%  
257 2% 96%  
258 0.9% 94%  
259 0.4% 94%  
260 0.4% 93%  
261 0.6% 93%  
262 5% 92%  
263 4% 88%  
264 15% 84%  
265 2% 68%  
266 2% 67%  
267 1.0% 64%  
268 1.4% 63%  
269 2% 62%  
270 2% 59%  
271 15% 57% Median
272 5% 42%  
273 0.7% 38%  
274 0.4% 37%  
275 2% 37%  
276 6% 35%  
277 4% 29%  
278 5% 25%  
279 3% 20%  
280 4% 16%  
281 1.3% 13%  
282 0.2% 12%  
283 0.6% 11%  
284 2% 11%  
285 5% 9%  
286 2% 4%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.4%  
289 0.1% 1.1%  
290 0.2% 1.0%  
291 0.1% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.3% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.9%  
168 0.2% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.5%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.2% 99.3%  
172 0.1% 99.1%  
173 0.5% 99.0%  
174 0.9% 98%  
175 0.8% 98%  
176 2% 97%  
177 0.9% 94%  
178 5% 93%  
179 0.8% 89%  
180 1.0% 88%  
181 1.3% 87%  
182 1.3% 85%  
183 3% 84%  
184 4% 81%  
185 6% 77%  
186 4% 71%  
187 3% 67%  
188 5% 64%  
189 3% 59%  
190 3% 56% Median
191 4% 53%  
192 1.5% 50%  
193 10% 48%  
194 2% 38%  
195 11% 35%  
196 3% 25%  
197 7% 22%  
198 8% 14%  
199 1.3% 6%  
200 1.3% 5%  
201 0.4% 3%  
202 0.4% 3%  
203 0.1% 3%  
204 0.7% 3%  
205 0.5% 2%  
206 0.2% 1.3%  
207 0.7% 1.1%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0.1% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.4% 99.6%  
164 0.9% 99.2%  
165 0.5% 98%  
166 0.8% 98%  
167 0.3% 97%  
168 1.2% 97%  
169 3% 96%  
170 2% 93%  
171 0.5% 91%  
172 0.7% 91%  
173 6% 90%  
174 2% 84%  
175 6% 82%  
176 0.8% 76%  
177 3% 75%  
178 10% 72%  
179 9% 61%  
180 3% 52%  
181 8% 49% Median
182 2% 41%  
183 7% 39%  
184 6% 32%  
185 0.6% 26%  
186 4% 26%  
187 5% 22%  
188 3% 17%  
189 1.2% 14%  
190 0.5% 13%  
191 1.4% 13%  
192 6% 11%  
193 0.8% 5%  
194 0.8% 4%  
195 1.0% 4%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 0.7% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.2%  
199 0.1% 0.8%  
200 0.3% 0.7%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations