Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 6–9 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.5% 21.4–23.7% 21.0–24.1% 20.8–24.4% 20.2–25.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 170 160–177 157–180 155–182 150–187
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 157 145–163 142–165 139–166 136–170
Alternative für Deutschland 94 110 104–120 102–123 100–125 98–129
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 104 97–112 95–114 93–117 90–120
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 58–70 56–71 55–74 52–76
Die Linke 69 64 58–69 56–72 56–73 53–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–45 35–47 35–49 33–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.3% 99.8%  
151 0.3% 99.5%  
152 0.1% 99.2%  
153 0.2% 99.1%  
154 0.3% 98.8%  
155 1.1% 98%  
156 1.4% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 3% 94%  
159 0.8% 91%  
160 2% 90%  
161 2% 88%  
162 2% 86%  
163 5% 84%  
164 2% 79%  
165 4% 78%  
166 3% 73%  
167 9% 71%  
168 4% 62%  
169 4% 58%  
170 4% 54% Median
171 2% 50%  
172 4% 47%  
173 3% 44%  
174 11% 41%  
175 14% 30%  
176 2% 15%  
177 4% 13%  
178 0.8% 9%  
179 1.4% 8%  
180 2% 7%  
181 0.7% 5%  
182 2% 4%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 1.2% 2%  
185 0.2% 0.8%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.4% 99.7%  
137 0.1% 99.4%  
138 0.5% 99.3%  
139 2% 98.8%  
140 0.3% 97%  
141 0.6% 97%  
142 1.1% 96%  
143 0.8% 95%  
144 0.8% 94%  
145 5% 93%  
146 1.2% 88%  
147 0.8% 87%  
148 4% 86%  
149 2% 82%  
150 2% 81%  
151 4% 79%  
152 2% 75%  
153 2% 72%  
154 12% 71%  
155 3% 59%  
156 5% 55%  
157 20% 51% Median
158 2% 31%  
159 4% 29%  
160 9% 26%  
161 1.3% 17%  
162 3% 15%  
163 5% 13%  
164 1.3% 7%  
165 3% 6%  
166 1.3% 3%  
167 0.3% 2%  
168 0.2% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.5%  
170 0.5% 0.8%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.2% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.7% 99.3%  
100 1.4% 98.6%  
101 1.0% 97%  
102 3% 96%  
103 1.2% 93%  
104 2% 92%  
105 4% 89%  
106 3% 85%  
107 17% 82%  
108 8% 66%  
109 6% 58%  
110 3% 51% Median
111 4% 48%  
112 3% 44%  
113 10% 42%  
114 4% 31%  
115 4% 27%  
116 2% 23%  
117 3% 21%  
118 2% 18%  
119 3% 15%  
120 3% 12%  
121 2% 10%  
122 1.1% 7%  
123 2% 6%  
124 0.8% 4%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.3% 2%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.3% 0.9%  
129 0.3% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.7%  
91 0.5% 99.2%  
92 0.7% 98.6%  
93 0.6% 98%  
94 1.0% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 4% 92%  
98 3% 87%  
99 4% 85%  
100 4% 81%  
101 16% 77%  
102 4% 61%  
103 5% 57%  
104 4% 52% Median
105 5% 48%  
106 4% 43%  
107 12% 38%  
108 5% 26%  
109 5% 22%  
110 0.9% 17%  
111 4% 16%  
112 2% 12%  
113 4% 10%  
114 2% 6%  
115 1.0% 4%  
116 0.8% 3%  
117 0.8% 3%  
118 0.4% 2%  
119 0.6% 1.3%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.1% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 95%  
57 2% 92%  
58 3% 90%  
59 4% 87%  
60 12% 84%  
61 10% 71%  
62 4% 61%  
63 3% 58%  
64 8% 54% Median
65 20% 46%  
66 6% 26%  
67 2% 20%  
68 3% 18%  
69 5% 16%  
70 6% 11%  
71 1.5% 5%  
72 0.6% 4%  
73 0.6% 3%  
74 1.2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.3%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.4% 99.1%  
55 0.2% 98%  
56 4% 98%  
57 2% 94%  
58 2% 92%  
59 9% 89%  
60 0.8% 81%  
61 9% 80%  
62 12% 71%  
63 3% 59%  
64 20% 56% Median
65 2% 37%  
66 12% 34%  
67 3% 23%  
68 3% 20%  
69 7% 16% Last Result
70 1.2% 10%  
71 3% 8%  
72 1.5% 6%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.8%  
76 0.4% 0.8%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 99.2%  
35 3% 98%  
36 4% 95%  
37 2% 91%  
38 4% 89%  
39 15% 85%  
40 16% 70%  
41 11% 54% Median
42 5% 43%  
43 7% 38%  
44 7% 31%  
45 14% 24%  
46 4% 10% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 1.2% 5%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.1%  
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 472 100% 458–480 455–483 452–484 448–488
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 431 100% 417–439 413–442 411–443 406–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 376–395 374–399 370–402 366–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 380 99.8% 368–389 365–391 364–395 358–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 80% 350–375 348–376 347–377 344–381
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 314–333 310–335 307–339 301–343
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 323 0% 312–332 311–335 307–339 303–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 322 0% 314–331 311–336 308–338 302–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 315 0% 305–325 302–327 300–330 295–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 274 0% 264–285 262–286 260–290 254–294
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 250–269 246–273 244–274 240–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 167 0% 158–178 157–181 155–182 152–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 160–178 157–179 154–182 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
443 0% 100%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.3% 99.7%  
449 0.1% 99.4%  
450 0.8% 99.3%  
451 0.5% 98.5%  
452 0.6% 98%  
453 0.3% 97%  
454 0.8% 97%  
455 3% 96%  
456 2% 94%  
457 1.4% 92%  
458 2% 90%  
459 1.0% 89%  
460 2% 88%  
461 3% 86%  
462 3% 84%  
463 2% 81%  
464 2% 79%  
465 4% 76%  
466 1.2% 73% Last Result
467 2% 71%  
468 2% 69%  
469 5% 67%  
470 7% 62%  
471 3% 55%  
472 10% 52% Median
473 0.7% 42%  
474 2% 42%  
475 8% 40%  
476 6% 32%  
477 2% 25%  
478 10% 23%  
479 2% 13%  
480 1.5% 11%  
481 1.2% 9%  
482 2% 8%  
483 3% 6%  
484 2% 3%  
485 0.4% 2%  
486 0.4% 1.3%  
487 0.1% 0.9%  
488 0.4% 0.8%  
489 0.2% 0.4%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0.3% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.2% 99.4%  
408 0.2% 99.2%  
409 0.9% 99.0%  
410 0.3% 98%  
411 0.7% 98%  
412 1.4% 97%  
413 1.0% 96%  
414 1.4% 95%  
415 0.8% 93%  
416 2% 93%  
417 3% 90%  
418 2% 88%  
419 0.7% 86%  
420 2% 85%  
421 2% 82%  
422 2% 81%  
423 3% 79%  
424 2% 76%  
425 2% 73%  
426 3% 71%  
427 3% 69%  
428 3% 66%  
429 4% 63%  
430 2% 59%  
431 11% 58%  
432 3% 47% Median
433 5% 44%  
434 6% 38%  
435 2% 33%  
436 11% 31%  
437 2% 20%  
438 1.4% 18%  
439 7% 16%  
440 2% 9%  
441 0.7% 7%  
442 3% 6%  
443 0.9% 3%  
444 0.4% 2%  
445 1.1% 2%  
446 0.4% 1.0%  
447 0.2% 0.6%  
448 0% 0.4%  
449 0.2% 0.4%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0.1% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.5% 99.7%  
367 0.3% 99.2%  
368 0.1% 99.0%  
369 1.3% 98.9%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 0.5% 97%  
373 0.6% 96%  
374 1.0% 95%  
375 4% 94%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 3% 87%  
379 3% 84%  
380 4% 81%  
381 10% 77%  
382 1.4% 67%  
383 5% 66%  
384 4% 61%  
385 3% 57% Median
386 7% 54%  
387 10% 47%  
388 2% 38%  
389 3% 36%  
390 4% 33%  
391 2% 29%  
392 10% 27%  
393 2% 16%  
394 2% 14%  
395 2% 12%  
396 2% 10%  
397 2% 8%  
398 0.7% 6%  
399 0.6% 6%  
400 1.0% 5%  
401 1.3% 4%  
402 0.8% 3%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.2% 1.3%  
405 0.3% 1.1%  
406 0.1% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0.3% 0.6%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0.3% 99.7%  
359 0.2% 99.5%  
360 0.2% 99.2%  
361 0.1% 99.0%  
362 0.6% 98.9%  
363 0.8% 98%  
364 0.7% 98%  
365 2% 97%  
366 1.4% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 2% 92%  
369 1.5% 90%  
370 3% 88%  
371 2% 86%  
372 2% 83%  
373 4% 82%  
374 8% 78%  
375 6% 71%  
376 5% 65%  
377 2% 59%  
378 3% 57%  
379 2% 55% Median
380 8% 52%  
381 10% 44%  
382 3% 34%  
383 2% 31%  
384 4% 29%  
385 3% 25%  
386 9% 22%  
387 1.3% 13%  
388 0.9% 12%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 8%  
391 2% 7%  
392 1.1% 4%  
393 0.4% 3%  
394 0.3% 3%  
395 0.9% 3%  
396 0.7% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.0%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.2% 0.4%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.3% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.6% 99.3%  
346 1.0% 98.7%  
347 1.1% 98%  
348 4% 97%  
349 2% 93%  
350 2% 91%  
351 1.5% 89%  
352 3% 87%  
353 3% 84%  
354 0.7% 81%  
355 0.8% 80% Majority
356 0.8% 79%  
357 1.4% 78%  
358 1.5% 77%  
359 0.2% 75%  
360 0.4% 75%  
361 0.8% 75%  
362 0.6% 74%  
363 0.4% 73%  
364 0.3% 73%  
365 3% 73%  
366 2% 70%  
367 2% 68%  
368 3% 66% Median
369 5% 63%  
370 8% 58%  
371 19% 50%  
372 7% 31%  
373 2% 24%  
374 9% 22%  
375 7% 13%  
376 3% 6%  
377 0.8% 3%  
378 0.7% 2%  
379 0.9% 2%  
380 0.3% 0.9%  
381 0.2% 0.5%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.3% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.4%  
303 0.1% 99.3%  
304 0.3% 99.2%  
305 0.2% 98.9%  
306 0.5% 98.7%  
307 0.8% 98%  
308 1.3% 97%  
309 1.0% 96%  
310 0.6% 95%  
311 0.7% 94%  
312 2% 94%  
313 2% 92%  
314 2% 90%  
315 2% 88%  
316 2% 86%  
317 10% 84%  
318 2% 73%  
319 4% 71%  
320 3% 67%  
321 2% 64%  
322 10% 62%  
323 7% 53%  
324 3% 46%  
325 4% 43% Median
326 5% 39%  
327 1.4% 34%  
328 10% 33%  
329 4% 23%  
330 3% 19%  
331 3% 16%  
332 2% 13%  
333 2% 11%  
334 4% 9%  
335 1.0% 6%  
336 0.6% 5%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0.8% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 1.3% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.3% 1.0%  
343 0.5% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 1.1% 99.3%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.7% 97%  
309 0.7% 97%  
310 0.7% 96%  
311 3% 95%  
312 4% 93%  
313 0.6% 89%  
314 0.7% 88%  
315 0.8% 87%  
316 2% 86%  
317 4% 84%  
318 4% 80%  
319 3% 77%  
320 9% 74%  
321 2% 65%  
322 3% 63%  
323 10% 59%  
324 14% 49%  
325 8% 35% Median
326 3% 28%  
327 4% 25%  
328 2% 21%  
329 3% 20%  
330 3% 17%  
331 4% 14%  
332 3% 10%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 0.5% 6%  
335 0.7% 5%  
336 1.4% 5%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 1.1% 2%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0% 0.6%  
343 0% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0.1% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.4% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.2%  
304 0.2% 98.9%  
305 0.2% 98.7%  
306 0.2% 98.6%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 1.2% 98%  
309 0.3% 97%  
310 0.7% 96%  
311 2% 96%  
312 1.0% 94%  
313 1.3% 93%  
314 3% 92%  
315 3% 89%  
316 2% 85%  
317 6% 83%  
318 3% 77%  
319 5% 74%  
320 5% 69%  
321 11% 64% Median
322 9% 53%  
323 3% 44%  
324 4% 41%  
325 6% 37%  
326 4% 31%  
327 7% 27%  
328 3% 20%  
329 2% 17%  
330 0.7% 14%  
331 5% 14%  
332 1.5% 9%  
333 0.9% 7%  
334 0.8% 7%  
335 0.4% 6%  
336 2% 5%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 1.0% 3%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.7% 2% Last Result
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.2% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.5% 99.3%  
298 0.5% 98.8%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 1.1% 97%  
302 2% 96%  
303 1.5% 94%  
304 1.0% 93%  
305 3% 92%  
306 2% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 2% 84%  
309 3% 82%  
310 5% 79%  
311 2% 74%  
312 4% 72%  
313 5% 68%  
314 4% 63%  
315 12% 59% Median
316 3% 47%  
317 4% 44%  
318 3% 40%  
319 4% 37%  
320 2% 33%  
321 15% 31%  
322 2% 16%  
323 2% 14%  
324 1.2% 12%  
325 1.3% 11%  
326 3% 10%  
327 2% 7%  
328 0.7% 5%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.7% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.8%  
336 0.4% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.3% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0.5% 99.3%  
257 0.2% 98.8%  
258 0.6% 98.6%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 2% 98%  
261 0.9% 96%  
262 3% 95%  
263 2% 92%  
264 1.2% 91%  
265 3% 89%  
266 1.0% 86%  
267 5% 85%  
268 1.4% 80%  
269 5% 79%  
270 3% 74%  
271 3% 71%  
272 4% 68%  
273 5% 64%  
274 13% 59%  
275 2% 46% Median
276 3% 44%  
277 2% 42%  
278 4% 40%  
279 12% 35%  
280 3% 23%  
281 2% 20%  
282 0.8% 19%  
283 2% 18%  
284 2% 16%  
285 9% 14%  
286 0.6% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.8% 4%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 1.2% 3%  
291 0.5% 1.5%  
292 0.3% 1.0%  
293 0.1% 0.7%  
294 0.2% 0.6%  
295 0.2% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.6% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.0%  
242 0.4% 98.8%  
243 0.8% 98%  
244 0.8% 98%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 2% 96%  
247 0.9% 95%  
248 1.1% 94%  
249 1.5% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 5% 90%  
252 1.1% 84%  
253 4% 83%  
254 2% 79%  
255 8% 78%  
256 5% 69%  
257 2% 65%  
258 11% 63%  
259 3% 52%  
260 5% 49%  
261 4% 44% Median
262 4% 40%  
263 3% 36%  
264 12% 32%  
265 3% 20%  
266 2% 17%  
267 4% 16%  
268 1.0% 12%  
269 2% 11%  
270 2% 9%  
271 0.7% 7%  
272 1.0% 6%  
273 1.4% 5%  
274 2% 4%  
275 0.2% 2%  
276 1.2% 2%  
277 0.3% 0.8%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.2% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.4% 99.4%  
154 0.7% 99.0%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 2% 97%  
157 2% 95%  
158 4% 93%  
159 0.6% 89%  
160 3% 88%  
161 3% 85%  
162 4% 82%  
163 2% 78%  
164 8% 76%  
165 3% 68%  
166 14% 65%  
167 10% 51%  
168 5% 41% Median
169 2% 37%  
170 4% 34%  
171 2% 30%  
172 4% 28%  
173 3% 24%  
174 4% 21%  
175 3% 18%  
176 2% 15%  
177 2% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.4% 9%  
180 2% 7%  
181 0.4% 5%  
182 2% 5%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.4%  
186 0.4% 1.1%  
187 0.1% 0.7%  
188 0.3% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0.6% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.1%  
153 0.6% 99.0%  
154 2% 98%  
155 0.3% 97%  
156 0.6% 97%  
157 1.3% 96%  
158 1.3% 95%  
159 3% 93%  
160 4% 90%  
161 2% 86%  
162 1.2% 84%  
163 10% 83%  
164 1.3% 72%  
165 11% 71%  
166 5% 60%  
167 4% 54%  
168 3% 50% Median
169 5% 47%  
170 3% 42%  
171 9% 39%  
172 8% 30%  
173 2% 22%  
174 2% 19%  
175 3% 18%  
176 1.5% 14%  
177 3% 13%  
178 4% 10%  
179 2% 6%  
180 0.8% 5%  
181 0.8% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.2% 2%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.9% 2%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations