Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 1–11 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.1% 21.7–24.7% 21.3–25.2% 20.9–25.6% 20.2–26.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.6–22.6% 19.2–23.0% 18.9–23.4% 18.2–24.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.8% 13.2–17.1% 12.6–17.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.8% 13.2–17.1% 12.6–17.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.6–9.6% 7.3–9.9% 7.1–10.2% 6.7–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.2–6.7% 3.9–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 161–184 158–187 155–190 150–195
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 156 145–167 143–171 140–173 135–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 103–122 100–125 98–127 93–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 114 103–119 102–126 101–128 92–130
Die Linke 69 63 56–71 54–73 53–76 49–79
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 46–60 44–62 43–63 40–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–46 33–48 32–50 29–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.1% 99.6%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.4% 98.9%  
154 0.5% 98.6%  
155 1.0% 98%  
156 0.6% 97%  
157 1.1% 97%  
158 1.1% 95%  
159 1.5% 94%  
160 2% 93%  
161 2% 91%  
162 2% 89%  
163 3% 87%  
164 2% 83%  
165 3% 81%  
166 3% 78%  
167 5% 75%  
168 5% 70%  
169 4% 66%  
170 5% 62%  
171 5% 57%  
172 4% 53% Median
173 5% 49%  
174 5% 44%  
175 5% 40%  
176 4% 35%  
177 3% 31%  
178 4% 28%  
179 4% 24%  
180 3% 20%  
181 2% 16%  
182 2% 14%  
183 2% 12%  
184 2% 10%  
185 1.1% 8%  
186 2% 7%  
187 1.1% 5%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.4%  
193 0.2% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.2% 99.6%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.3% 99.2%  
138 0.5% 99.0%  
139 0.6% 98.5%  
140 0.8% 98%  
141 1.0% 97%  
142 1.1% 96%  
143 1.2% 95%  
144 2% 94%  
145 2% 92%  
146 1.5% 90%  
147 3% 88%  
148 3% 86%  
149 3% 82%  
150 4% 79%  
151 4% 75%  
152 4% 70%  
153 5% 67%  
154 4% 62%  
155 4% 57%  
156 5% 53% Median
157 5% 48%  
158 4% 43%  
159 5% 39%  
160 4% 34%  
161 3% 30%  
162 3% 27%  
163 4% 24%  
164 3% 20%  
165 3% 17%  
166 3% 14%  
167 2% 11%  
168 1.2% 9%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.2% 6%  
171 1.1% 5%  
172 0.9% 4%  
173 0.7% 3%  
174 0.5% 2%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.3% 1.3%  
177 0.2% 1.1%  
178 0.3% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.3% 99.2%  
96 0.5% 98.9%  
97 0.7% 98%  
98 0.9% 98%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 1.4% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 4% 88%  
105 3% 84%  
106 3% 81%  
107 5% 78%  
108 6% 73%  
109 4% 66%  
110 5% 63%  
111 4% 57%  
112 6% 53% Median
113 5% 47%  
114 5% 42%  
115 5% 38%  
116 6% 33%  
117 3% 27%  
118 5% 23%  
119 3% 18%  
120 3% 15%  
121 2% 12%  
122 2% 10%  
123 1.4% 8%  
124 1.5% 6%  
125 1.0% 5%  
126 1.2% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 0.4% 99.4%  
94 0.2% 99.0% Last Result
95 0.3% 98.8%  
96 0.1% 98%  
97 0% 98%  
98 0% 98%  
99 0.1% 98%  
100 0.4% 98%  
101 2% 98%  
102 4% 96%  
103 5% 92%  
104 7% 87%  
105 8% 80%  
106 6% 72%  
107 2% 66%  
108 0.7% 64%  
109 0.2% 63%  
110 0.1% 63%  
111 0.4% 63%  
112 3% 63%  
113 3% 60%  
114 8% 57% Median
115 13% 49%  
116 14% 36%  
117 6% 23%  
118 6% 16%  
119 2% 11%  
120 0.4% 9%  
121 0% 8%  
122 0.1% 8%  
123 0.2% 8%  
124 0.3% 8%  
125 1.2% 8%  
126 2% 6%  
127 2% 5%  
128 1.5% 3%  
129 1.1% 2%  
130 0.3% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.6% 99.1%  
52 0.9% 98.5%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 92%  
57 4% 89%  
58 5% 86%  
59 6% 81%  
60 7% 75%  
61 6% 68%  
62 7% 62%  
63 7% 55% Median
64 6% 48%  
65 7% 43%  
66 6% 35%  
67 5% 29%  
68 5% 25%  
69 4% 19% Last Result
70 3% 16%  
71 3% 13%  
72 2% 9%  
73 2% 7%  
74 1.3% 5%  
75 1.0% 4%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 99.2%  
42 0.8% 98.6%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 2% 96%  
45 3% 95%  
46 4% 91%  
47 5% 87%  
48 5% 82%  
49 8% 77%  
50 6% 69%  
51 8% 63%  
52 7% 55% Median
53 7% 48%  
54 7% 41%  
55 4% 33%  
56 6% 29%  
57 5% 23%  
58 5% 18%  
59 3% 13%  
60 3% 11%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.5%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 0.8% 99.2%  
31 0.8% 98%  
32 0.9% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 5% 95%  
35 8% 90%  
36 6% 82%  
37 5% 76%  
38 4% 71%  
39 7% 67%  
40 12% 59% Median
41 10% 47%  
42 9% 37%  
43 3% 27%  
44 3% 24%  
45 5% 21%  
46 6% 15% Last Result
47 5% 10%  
48 1.5% 5%  
49 0.8% 4%  
50 0.7% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 468–494 466–496 462–500 455–505
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 421 100% 408–434 405–438 402–441 395–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 98.5% 364–390 360–394 357–397 350–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 377 98.6% 364–390 360–394 357–397 350–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 369 93% 356–382 352–386 349–388 343–395
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 1.5% 319–345 315–349 312–352 306–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 325 0.2% 312–338 308–341 305–345 299–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 324 0.2% 312–337 308–342 305–345 298–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 321 0.1% 308–334 304–338 301–341 295–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 268 0% 256–281 252–285 249–288 243–294
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 265 0% 252–278 249–281 245–285 239–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–187 161–191 159–193 153–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 154–176 151–179 148–182 143–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.9%  
454 0.2% 99.8%  
455 0.2% 99.6%  
456 0.1% 99.4%  
457 0.1% 99.3%  
458 0.1% 99.2%  
459 0.2% 99.1%  
460 0.6% 98.9%  
461 0.7% 98%  
462 0.8% 98%  
463 0.8% 97%  
464 0.4% 96%  
465 0.5% 96%  
466 1.1% 95% Last Result
467 2% 94%  
468 3% 93%  
469 3% 90%  
470 2% 86%  
471 0.8% 85%  
472 1.1% 84%  
473 2% 83%  
474 5% 81%  
475 7% 76%  
476 4% 69%  
477 2% 65%  
478 1.1% 62%  
479 2% 61%  
480 4% 59% Median
481 9% 55%  
482 5% 46%  
483 4% 40%  
484 2% 36%  
485 2% 34%  
486 2% 32%  
487 4% 30%  
488 4% 26%  
489 5% 22%  
490 3% 17%  
491 1.0% 14%  
492 0.6% 13%  
493 0.8% 12%  
494 2% 11%  
495 3% 9%  
496 2% 6%  
497 0.7% 4%  
498 0.3% 3%  
499 0.2% 3%  
500 0.4% 3%  
501 0.7% 2%  
502 0.6% 2%  
503 0.3% 1.1%  
504 0.2% 0.7%  
505 0.1% 0.5%  
506 0% 0.5%  
507 0.1% 0.4%  
508 0.1% 0.3%  
509 0.1% 0.3%  
510 0.1% 0.2%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.6%  
396 0.2% 99.4%  
397 0.3% 99.3%  
398 0.2% 99.0%  
399 0.3% 98.8%  
400 0.3% 98%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 0.7% 98%  
403 0.6% 97%  
404 1.1% 96%  
405 1.0% 95%  
406 0.8% 94%  
407 2% 94%  
408 2% 92%  
409 2% 90%  
410 1.4% 88%  
411 3% 87%  
412 3% 84%  
413 3% 81%  
414 3% 78%  
415 4% 75%  
416 3% 70%  
417 4% 68%  
418 4% 64%  
419 4% 60%  
420 4% 56% Median
421 4% 52%  
422 3% 48%  
423 3% 44%  
424 5% 41%  
425 3% 36%  
426 3% 33%  
427 4% 30%  
428 3% 26%  
429 3% 24%  
430 2% 21%  
431 2% 18%  
432 2% 16%  
433 2% 14%  
434 2% 12%  
435 2% 10%  
436 1.4% 8%  
437 1.4% 7%  
438 1.2% 6%  
439 0.9% 4%  
440 0.7% 4%  
441 0.7% 3%  
442 0.4% 2%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.4%  
445 0.2% 1.0%  
446 0.2% 0.7%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.3%  
353 0.2% 99.2%  
354 0.4% 98.9%  
355 0.4% 98.5% Majority
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.9% 97%  
359 1.0% 96%  
360 0.8% 95%  
361 2% 95%  
362 1.2% 93%  
363 1.3% 92%  
364 2% 90%  
365 2% 89%  
366 2% 86%  
367 3% 84%  
368 2% 82%  
369 3% 80%  
370 3% 77%  
371 3% 74%  
372 3% 71%  
373 3% 68%  
374 3% 65%  
375 4% 62%  
376 3% 58%  
377 4% 54%  
378 5% 51% Median
379 5% 46%  
380 3% 41%  
381 4% 38%  
382 4% 34%  
383 3% 30%  
384 4% 27%  
385 3% 23%  
386 3% 20%  
387 3% 18%  
388 2% 15%  
389 2% 13%  
390 2% 11%  
391 1.5% 9%  
392 1.3% 7%  
393 1.1% 6%  
394 0.9% 5%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 0.8% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.3% 1.4%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.2% 99.4%  
352 0.2% 99.2%  
353 0.2% 99.1%  
354 0.3% 98.9%  
355 0.4% 98.6% Majority
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.5% 97%  
359 0.8% 97%  
360 0.9% 96%  
361 1.2% 95%  
362 2% 94%  
363 1.3% 92%  
364 1.4% 91%  
365 2% 89%  
366 2% 87%  
367 2% 85%  
368 3% 83%  
369 3% 80%  
370 3% 77%  
371 4% 74%  
372 3% 70%  
373 3% 67%  
374 4% 64%  
375 4% 60%  
376 3% 56% Median
377 3% 53%  
378 4% 49%  
379 4% 45%  
380 5% 40%  
381 3% 36%  
382 3% 32%  
383 3% 29%  
384 3% 26%  
385 2% 23%  
386 3% 20%  
387 2% 17%  
388 2% 15%  
389 1.4% 13%  
390 2% 11%  
391 1.3% 9%  
392 1.3% 8%  
393 1.0% 7%  
394 1.1% 6%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 0.7% 4%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.3% 1.3%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.2% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.2% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.3% 99.3%  
345 0.1% 99.0%  
346 0.2% 98.9%  
347 0.3% 98.7%  
348 0.4% 98%  
349 0.6% 98%  
350 1.4% 97%  
351 1.0% 96%  
352 0.9% 95%  
353 0.8% 94%  
354 0.6% 93%  
355 2% 93% Majority
356 2% 91%  
357 3% 89%  
358 3% 86%  
359 3% 83%  
360 2% 80%  
361 1.1% 78%  
362 2% 77%  
363 3% 75%  
364 4% 72%  
365 5% 67%  
366 5% 62%  
367 2% 57%  
368 3% 54% Median
369 3% 51%  
370 4% 48%  
371 5% 45%  
372 4% 40%  
373 6% 36%  
374 2% 29%  
375 2% 27%  
376 2% 25%  
377 3% 23%  
378 4% 20%  
379 3% 17%  
380 3% 14%  
381 1.1% 11%  
382 1.2% 10%  
383 0.6% 9%  
384 1.0% 9%  
385 2% 8%  
386 1.2% 6%  
387 2% 5%  
388 0.6% 3%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.5% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.2%  
394 0.3% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.2% 99.4%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0.3% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.6%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.8% 97%  
314 0.8% 97%  
315 0.9% 96%  
316 1.1% 95%  
317 1.3% 94%  
318 1.5% 93%  
319 2% 91%  
320 2% 89%  
321 2% 87%  
322 3% 85%  
323 3% 82%  
324 3% 80%  
325 4% 77%  
326 3% 73%  
327 4% 70%  
328 4% 66%  
329 3% 62%  
330 5% 59%  
331 5% 54% Median
332 4% 49%  
333 3% 46%  
334 4% 42%  
335 3% 38%  
336 3% 35%  
337 3% 32%  
338 3% 29%  
339 3% 26%  
340 3% 23%  
341 2% 20%  
342 3% 18%  
343 2% 16%  
344 2% 14%  
345 2% 11%  
346 1.3% 10%  
347 1.2% 8%  
348 2% 7%  
349 0.8% 5%  
350 1.0% 5%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.4% 1.5% Majority
356 0.2% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.3% 99.3%  
301 0.2% 99.0%  
302 0.3% 98.9%  
303 0.4% 98.5%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 0.9% 98%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 0.8% 96%  
308 1.1% 95%  
309 1.0% 94%  
310 1.2% 93%  
311 2% 92%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 86%  
315 2% 84%  
316 2% 82%  
317 4% 80%  
318 3% 76%  
319 3% 73%  
320 4% 70%  
321 3% 66%  
322 4% 63%  
323 3% 59%  
324 4% 55%  
325 4% 51%  
326 5% 47% Median
327 4% 42%  
328 3% 39%  
329 3% 36%  
330 4% 32%  
331 3% 28%  
332 3% 25%  
333 2% 22%  
334 2% 19%  
335 3% 17%  
336 2% 14%  
337 1.2% 12%  
338 3% 11%  
339 1.4% 8%  
340 0.8% 7% Last Result
341 0.9% 6%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 1.0%  
350 0.2% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.3% 98.8%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.7% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 0.9% 96%  
308 0.8% 95%  
309 2% 95%  
310 1.5% 93%  
311 1.4% 92%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 87%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 81%  
317 2% 79%  
318 5% 77%  
319 2% 71%  
320 3% 69%  
321 5% 66%  
322 4% 61%  
323 4% 58%  
324 4% 54% Median
325 3% 50%  
326 4% 47%  
327 4% 42%  
328 3% 38%  
329 5% 35%  
330 2% 30%  
331 4% 28%  
332 2% 23%  
333 2% 21%  
334 3% 19%  
335 2% 17%  
336 2% 14%  
337 2% 12%  
338 1.3% 10%  
339 1.3% 9%  
340 2% 7%  
341 0.7% 6%  
342 1.1% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.6% 3%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.4% 1.4%  
349 0.2% 1.0%  
350 0.2% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.2% 99.2%  
298 0.5% 99.0%  
299 0.4% 98.5%  
300 0.4% 98% Last Result
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 1.3% 97%  
304 0.7% 95%  
305 0.9% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 92%  
308 1.1% 90%  
309 2% 89%  
310 2% 87%  
311 5% 85%  
312 2% 81%  
313 3% 79%  
314 4% 76%  
315 2% 72%  
316 3% 69%  
317 3% 67%  
318 6% 64%  
319 4% 58%  
320 3% 54% Median
321 3% 51%  
322 5% 48%  
323 3% 43%  
324 4% 41%  
325 3% 36%  
326 5% 33%  
327 4% 29%  
328 2% 24%  
329 2% 22%  
330 3% 20%  
331 3% 17%  
332 2% 14%  
333 2% 12%  
334 2% 10%  
335 2% 9%  
336 0.7% 7%  
337 0.8% 6%  
338 1.3% 6%  
339 1.1% 4%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0.3% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 99.0%  
247 0.4% 98.8%  
248 0.5% 98%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.6% 97%  
251 0.8% 97%  
252 1.4% 96%  
253 1.0% 94%  
254 2% 94%  
255 1.2% 92%  
256 2% 91%  
257 2% 89%  
258 3% 86%  
259 2% 83%  
260 4% 82%  
261 3% 78%  
262 4% 75%  
263 2% 71%  
264 5% 69%  
265 3% 65%  
266 4% 61%  
267 4% 57%  
268 5% 53% Median
269 3% 48%  
270 4% 45%  
271 5% 41%  
272 3% 37%  
273 4% 34%  
274 3% 30%  
275 4% 27%  
276 2% 23%  
277 3% 21%  
278 2% 18%  
279 3% 16%  
280 1.5% 13%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 9%  
283 1.4% 8%  
284 0.9% 6%  
285 1.3% 5%  
286 0.8% 4%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.3% 3%  
289 0.5% 2%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.3% 1.4%  
292 0.3% 1.1%  
293 0.2% 0.8%  
294 0.2% 0.6%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.1% 99.5%  
241 0.3% 99.3%  
242 0.3% 99.1%  
243 0.4% 98.8%  
244 0.4% 98%  
245 0.5% 98%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 1.0% 96%  
249 1.1% 95%  
250 2% 94%  
251 1.3% 92%  
252 1.5% 91%  
253 2% 89%  
254 2% 88%  
255 3% 85%  
256 3% 83%  
257 3% 80%  
258 3% 77%  
259 2% 74%  
260 3% 71%  
261 3% 68%  
262 4% 65%  
263 5% 61%  
264 4% 56% Median
265 4% 52%  
266 4% 48%  
267 4% 44%  
268 4% 40%  
269 3% 36%  
270 3% 33%  
271 5% 30%  
272 3% 25%  
273 3% 22%  
274 3% 19%  
275 2% 16%  
276 2% 14%  
277 2% 12%  
278 2% 11%  
279 2% 8%  
280 1.4% 7%  
281 0.6% 5%  
282 1.0% 5%  
283 0.7% 4%  
284 0.5% 3%  
285 0.5% 3%  
286 0.6% 2%  
287 0.3% 1.5%  
288 0.3% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.4% 99.2%  
156 0.4% 98.9%  
157 0.3% 98.5%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 0.9% 97%  
161 1.1% 96%  
162 1.2% 95%  
163 1.5% 94%  
164 2% 92%  
165 2% 91%  
166 2% 88%  
167 3% 86%  
168 5% 83%  
169 3% 78%  
170 5% 76%  
171 3% 71%  
172 5% 68%  
173 6% 63%  
174 3% 56%  
175 7% 53% Median
176 3% 47%  
177 4% 44%  
178 5% 40%  
179 3% 35%  
180 4% 32%  
181 3% 28%  
182 3% 25%  
183 3% 22%  
184 2% 20%  
185 3% 17%  
186 3% 15%  
187 2% 12%  
188 2% 10%  
189 1.4% 8%  
190 2% 7%  
191 1.3% 5%  
192 0.8% 4%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.4% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.2%  
197 0.2% 0.9%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.6%  
143 0.2% 99.5%  
144 0.2% 99.3%  
145 0.2% 99.1%  
146 0.5% 98.9%  
147 0.6% 98%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.0% 97%  
150 0.8% 96%  
151 1.3% 95%  
152 2% 94%  
153 2% 92%  
154 2% 90%  
155 3% 88%  
156 2% 85%  
157 3% 83%  
158 4% 80%  
159 3% 76%  
160 4% 72%  
161 6% 68%  
162 5% 62%  
163 4% 57%  
164 4% 53% Median
165 5% 49%  
166 4% 45%  
167 4% 40%  
168 5% 36%  
169 3% 31%  
170 3% 28%  
171 4% 25%  
172 3% 21%  
173 3% 18%  
174 2% 15%  
175 2% 13%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 0.9% 7%  
179 1.4% 6%  
180 1.0% 4%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.2% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations