Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 10–11 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.9–23.0% 20.6–23.4% 20.4–23.6% 19.9–24.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.0–22.1% 19.7–22.4% 19.4–22.6% 18.9–23.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.1–15.9% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–14.9% 12.9–15.2% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.7% 4.4–5.9% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 159–175 157–177 155–179 151–184
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 152–168 150–170 148–172 144–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 114 108–121 106–124 104–125 101–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 100–114 98–115 97–117 94–120
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 56–66 55–68 53–69 51–72
Die Linke 69 61 56–66 55–68 53–69 51–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 35–43 34–45 33–46 31–48

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.5% 99.2%  
154 0.6% 98.7%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.3% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 3% 89%  
161 3% 86%  
162 5% 83%  
163 5% 78%  
164 6% 73%  
165 7% 67%  
166 7% 60%  
167 7% 54% Median
168 6% 47%  
169 5% 40%  
170 7% 35%  
171 4% 28%  
172 5% 24%  
173 4% 20%  
174 4% 15%  
175 3% 12%  
176 2% 9%  
177 2% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.2% 1.0%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.5%  
146 0.5% 99.2%  
147 0.7% 98.7%  
148 0.9% 98%  
149 1.3% 97%  
150 1.5% 96%  
151 2% 94%  
152 3% 92%  
153 3% 89%  
154 5% 86%  
155 4% 81%  
156 6% 77%  
157 6% 71%  
158 5% 65%  
159 7% 60%  
160 8% 53% Median
161 6% 45%  
162 7% 40%  
163 5% 33%  
164 5% 28%  
165 4% 22%  
166 5% 18%  
167 4% 14%  
168 2% 10%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.5% 6%  
171 1.3% 4%  
172 0.8% 3%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.5% 1.5%  
175 0.4% 1.0%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.2% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.4% 99.6%  
102 0.8% 99.2%  
103 0.9% 98%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 1.2% 96%  
106 1.2% 95%  
107 2% 94%  
108 4% 92%  
109 5% 88%  
110 8% 83%  
111 8% 75%  
112 6% 67%  
113 5% 61%  
114 7% 56% Median
115 8% 49%  
116 10% 41%  
117 8% 31%  
118 6% 23%  
119 3% 18%  
120 3% 15%  
121 2% 12%  
122 2% 9%  
123 2% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.2% 0.7%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 99.3%  
96 1.1% 98.7%  
97 1.2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 3% 94%  
100 4% 91%  
101 5% 88%  
102 5% 83%  
103 6% 78%  
104 7% 72%  
105 5% 65%  
106 8% 60%  
107 8% 52% Median
108 6% 44%  
109 8% 37%  
110 6% 29%  
111 5% 23%  
112 5% 18%  
113 3% 13%  
114 3% 10%  
115 3% 7%  
116 1.4% 5%  
117 1.3% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.5% 1.2%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.1% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 99.2%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 5% 92%  
57 5% 88%  
58 9% 83%  
59 8% 74%  
60 9% 66%  
61 14% 57% Median
62 9% 43%  
63 9% 34%  
64 7% 25%  
65 5% 19%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.2%  
53 1.2% 98.5%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 6% 88%  
58 8% 82%  
59 10% 74%  
60 8% 64%  
61 14% 56% Median
62 9% 42%  
63 8% 33%  
64 7% 25%  
65 5% 18%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.2% 4% Last Result
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.5%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 1.1% 99.0%  
33 3% 98%  
34 4% 95%  
35 7% 91%  
36 9% 85%  
37 8% 75%  
38 14% 67%  
39 10% 53% Median
40 13% 43%  
41 9% 31%  
42 7% 21%  
43 5% 14%  
44 3% 8%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.3% 3% Last Result
47 0.7% 1.4%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 473 100% 464–481 460–484 458–486 455–491
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 427 100% 418–436 415–439 413–441 408–445
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 381 100% 371–391 370–394 367–396 363–400
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 374 99.6% 364–383 362–386 359–388 355–393
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 366 94% 356–375 354–378 351–380 347–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0% 317–336 315–340 313–343 310–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 328 0% 318–338 315–339 313–342 309–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 320 0% 311–330 308–332 306–335 302–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 313 0% 303–322 301–325 298–327 294–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 267 0% 258–276 255–279 253–281 249–286
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 258–276 255–278 252–280 249–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 160–175 158–178 156–180 152–184
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 160–176 158–178 155–180 152–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.2% 99.6%  
456 0.6% 99.4%  
457 0.5% 98.8%  
458 1.1% 98%  
459 1.4% 97%  
460 1.2% 96%  
461 0.9% 95%  
462 1.0% 94%  
463 2% 93%  
464 2% 91%  
465 2% 89%  
466 4% 87% Last Result
467 3% 83%  
468 4% 80%  
469 3% 75%  
470 4% 72%  
471 4% 68%  
472 9% 64%  
473 9% 55% Median
474 5% 46%  
475 8% 41%  
476 9% 33%  
477 6% 24%  
478 3% 18%  
479 2% 15%  
480 2% 13%  
481 2% 10%  
482 2% 8%  
483 1.3% 6%  
484 1.4% 5%  
485 0.8% 4%  
486 0.7% 3%  
487 0.4% 2%  
488 0.4% 2%  
489 0.6% 1.4%  
490 0.3% 0.9%  
491 0.2% 0.5%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0.1% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.2% 99.6%  
409 0.2% 99.4%  
410 0.3% 99.3%  
411 0.5% 99.0%  
412 0.7% 98%  
413 0.7% 98%  
414 1.3% 97%  
415 1.0% 96%  
416 2% 95%  
417 2% 93%  
418 2% 91%  
419 4% 89%  
420 4% 85%  
421 3% 82%  
422 5% 79%  
423 4% 74%  
424 4% 70%  
425 5% 65%  
426 6% 60%  
427 6% 54% Median
428 6% 48%  
429 4% 41%  
430 6% 37%  
431 6% 31%  
432 3% 25%  
433 4% 22%  
434 4% 18%  
435 2% 14%  
436 3% 12%  
437 2% 9%  
438 1.3% 7%  
439 2% 6%  
440 1.3% 4%  
441 0.8% 3%  
442 0.7% 2%  
443 0.4% 1.4%  
444 0.3% 1.0%  
445 0.2% 0.7%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.2% 99.6%  
364 0.3% 99.4%  
365 0.6% 99.1%  
366 0.5% 98.5%  
367 0.6% 98%  
368 0.9% 97%  
369 1.4% 97%  
370 3% 95%  
371 3% 92%  
372 3% 89%  
373 2% 86%  
374 2% 84%  
375 2% 82%  
376 2% 80%  
377 2% 78%  
378 3% 76%  
379 5% 73%  
380 8% 68%  
381 11% 60% Median
382 10% 49%  
383 7% 39%  
384 4% 32%  
385 3% 28%  
386 3% 25%  
387 4% 22%  
388 3% 18%  
389 2% 16%  
390 3% 14%  
391 2% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 2% 7%  
394 1.1% 5%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.9% 3%  
397 0.7% 2%  
398 0.6% 2%  
399 0.4% 0.9%  
400 0.2% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.2% 99.7%  
355 0.2% 99.6% Majority
356 0.2% 99.4%  
357 0.4% 99.1%  
358 0.5% 98.7%  
359 1.0% 98%  
360 0.6% 97%  
361 1.3% 97%  
362 1.4% 95%  
363 2% 94%  
364 2% 92%  
365 2% 90%  
366 3% 88%  
367 4% 85%  
368 4% 81%  
369 5% 77%  
370 4% 72%  
371 6% 68%  
372 4% 62%  
373 5% 58%  
374 7% 53% Median
375 4% 46%  
376 6% 42%  
377 5% 36%  
378 4% 31%  
379 6% 27%  
380 4% 21%  
381 3% 18%  
382 3% 14%  
383 2% 11%  
384 2% 9%  
385 1.3% 7%  
386 1.3% 5%  
387 1.0% 4%  
388 1.0% 3%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.6% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.0%  
392 0.2% 0.8%  
393 0.2% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.2% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.2% 99.4%  
349 0.7% 99.2%  
350 0.4% 98.6%  
351 0.9% 98%  
352 0.7% 97%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 2% 96%  
355 2% 94% Majority
356 2% 92%  
357 2% 90%  
358 2% 88%  
359 3% 85%  
360 4% 82%  
361 3% 78%  
362 4% 75%  
363 5% 71%  
364 6% 66%  
365 6% 61%  
366 6% 55% Median
367 9% 49%  
368 4% 40%  
369 6% 36%  
370 5% 30%  
371 3% 25%  
372 6% 22%  
373 3% 16%  
374 2% 13%  
375 2% 11%  
376 2% 9%  
377 2% 7%  
378 1.0% 5%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 1.1% 3%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.2%  
384 0.3% 0.9%  
385 0.3% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.4% 99.3%  
312 0.7% 98.9%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 2% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 2% 94%  
317 2% 92%  
318 2% 90%  
319 2% 88%  
320 2% 86%  
321 2% 84%  
322 2% 81%  
323 3% 79%  
324 4% 76%  
325 4% 72%  
326 5% 68%  
327 7% 63%  
328 11% 56% Median
329 5% 45%  
330 10% 40%  
331 4% 30%  
332 5% 26%  
333 4% 21%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 1.4% 7%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 0.8% 5%  
342 1.4% 4%  
343 0.8% 3%  
344 0.6% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.2%  
346 0.3% 0.7%  
347 0.2% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.7%  
310 0.4% 99.5%  
311 0.6% 99.1%  
312 0.7% 98%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 1.1% 96%  
316 2% 95%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 3% 89%  
320 2% 86%  
321 3% 84%  
322 4% 82%  
323 3% 78%  
324 3% 75%  
325 4% 72%  
326 7% 68%  
327 10% 61%  
328 11% 51% Median
329 8% 40%  
330 5% 32%  
331 3% 27%  
332 2% 24%  
333 2% 22%  
334 2% 20%  
335 2% 18%  
336 2% 16%  
337 3% 14%  
338 3% 11%  
339 3% 8%  
340 1.4% 5%  
341 0.9% 3%  
342 0.6% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.6% 1.5%  
345 0.3% 0.9%  
346 0.2% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.2% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.3% 99.5%  
303 0.4% 99.2%  
304 0.4% 98.8%  
305 0.6% 98%  
306 0.5% 98%  
307 0.6% 97%  
308 2% 97%  
309 0.5% 95%  
310 4% 94%  
311 1.3% 91%  
312 5% 90%  
313 3% 85%  
314 4% 82%  
315 3% 79%  
316 4% 75%  
317 2% 71%  
318 8% 69%  
319 4% 61%  
320 12% 58% Median
321 3% 45%  
322 9% 42%  
323 2% 33%  
324 4% 31%  
325 4% 27%  
326 3% 23%  
327 3% 19%  
328 4% 17%  
329 2% 13%  
330 4% 11%  
331 1.1% 7%  
332 2% 6%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.5% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.6%  
295 0.3% 99.4%  
296 0.5% 99.1%  
297 0.6% 98.6%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 0.8% 96%  
301 2% 96%  
302 1.0% 94%  
303 3% 93%  
304 2% 90%  
305 3% 88%  
306 4% 85%  
307 4% 81%  
308 5% 78%  
309 4% 73%  
310 4% 69%  
311 8% 65%  
312 4% 57%  
313 7% 53% Median
314 5% 46%  
315 5% 40%  
316 6% 35%  
317 3% 29%  
318 7% 25%  
319 3% 19%  
320 4% 16%  
321 2% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 2% 9%  
324 1.4% 7%  
325 1.3% 5%  
326 1.1% 4%  
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.2%  
331 0.3% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.2% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.2% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.3% 99.4%  
251 0.3% 99.1%  
252 0.6% 98.8%  
253 1.0% 98%  
254 1.3% 97%  
255 2% 96%  
256 1.4% 94%  
257 2% 93%  
258 2% 91%  
259 3% 89%  
260 3% 87%  
261 4% 84%  
262 3% 79%  
263 4% 76%  
264 4% 71%  
265 8% 67%  
266 7% 59%  
267 6% 52% Median
268 4% 46%  
269 5% 42%  
270 6% 37%  
271 5% 31%  
272 6% 26%  
273 4% 21%  
274 3% 17%  
275 3% 14%  
276 2% 12%  
277 2% 9%  
278 2% 7%  
279 0.9% 5%  
280 1.2% 5%  
281 0.9% 3%  
282 0.6% 2%  
283 0.8% 2%  
284 0.4% 1.1%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.2% 99.7%  
249 0.3% 99.5%  
250 0.6% 99.2%  
251 0.4% 98.6%  
252 1.0% 98%  
253 0.7% 97%  
254 0.8% 96%  
255 1.0% 96%  
256 3% 95%  
257 1.5% 92%  
258 3% 90%  
259 4% 88%  
260 3% 84%  
261 4% 81%  
262 3% 77%  
263 5% 74%  
264 5% 69%  
265 3% 65%  
266 9% 61%  
267 7% 52% Median
268 7% 45%  
269 7% 37%  
270 3% 30%  
271 5% 28%  
272 3% 23%  
273 4% 20%  
274 3% 16%  
275 3% 13%  
276 3% 10%  
277 2% 7%  
278 1.5% 6%  
279 1.1% 4%  
280 0.6% 3%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.4% 2%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.3% 1.1%  
285 0.4% 0.8%  
286 0.2% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.3% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.4%  
154 0.8% 99.1%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 3% 94%  
160 3% 90%  
161 3% 87%  
162 3% 84%  
163 5% 81%  
164 6% 76%  
165 8% 70%  
166 5% 62%  
167 4% 57%  
168 8% 52% Median
169 5% 45%  
170 9% 39%  
171 5% 30%  
172 3% 25%  
173 5% 22%  
174 3% 18%  
175 4% 14%  
176 2% 10%  
177 2% 7%  
178 0.9% 6%  
179 1.4% 5%  
180 1.3% 3%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.5% 1.4%  
183 0.2% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.2% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.4%  
154 0.8% 99.1%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.1% 97%  
157 1.2% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 94%  
160 4% 92%  
161 5% 88%  
162 2% 83%  
163 4% 80%  
164 7% 77%  
165 5% 70%  
166 8% 65%  
167 6% 57%  
168 4% 51% Median
169 6% 47%  
170 10% 41%  
171 7% 31%  
172 3% 25%  
173 3% 22%  
174 5% 18%  
175 3% 14%  
176 3% 11%  
177 1.4% 7%  
178 1.5% 6%  
179 2% 5%  
180 1.0% 3%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.3%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.2% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations