Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 5–11 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.8–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 170 161–179 159–181 157–183 152–189
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 148 141–157 138–161 138–163 132–167
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 111–128 109–129 107–131 104–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 98 91–106 89–106 87–108 83–113
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 61–73 60–75 58–77 55–81
Die Linke 69 68 62–74 60–76 58–77 56–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 35–44 34–45 32–47 30–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.3% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.4% 99.2%  
155 0.3% 98.7%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 2% 98%  
158 0.7% 96%  
159 1.4% 96%  
160 1.2% 94%  
161 3% 93%  
162 0.6% 90%  
163 3% 89%  
164 3% 86%  
165 8% 83%  
166 3% 75%  
167 7% 71%  
168 3% 64%  
169 6% 61%  
170 7% 55% Median
171 5% 48%  
172 7% 43%  
173 2% 36%  
174 5% 34%  
175 2% 29%  
176 12% 27%  
177 2% 16%  
178 4% 14%  
179 1.1% 10%  
180 2% 9%  
181 3% 7%  
182 1.1% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.2% 2%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.2% 1.4%  
187 0.3% 1.2%  
188 0.2% 0.9%  
189 0.4% 0.7%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.3% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.4%  
134 0.3% 99.3%  
135 0.2% 99.0%  
136 0.2% 98.8%  
137 0.8% 98.6%  
138 3% 98%  
139 3% 94%  
140 1.0% 92%  
141 1.1% 91%  
142 3% 90%  
143 8% 86%  
144 11% 78%  
145 5% 67%  
146 2% 62%  
147 4% 60%  
148 14% 56% Median
149 6% 42%  
150 6% 36%  
151 1.5% 30%  
152 2% 29%  
153 5% 27%  
154 6% 22%  
155 1.4% 16%  
156 3% 14%  
157 2% 11%  
158 2% 9%  
159 0.9% 7%  
160 0.6% 6%  
161 2% 5%  
162 1.0% 4%  
163 1.0% 3%  
164 0.4% 2%  
165 0.1% 1.3%  
166 0.5% 1.2%  
167 0.4% 0.8%  
168 0.2% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.9% 99.5%  
106 0.4% 98.6%  
107 1.3% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 0.7% 95%  
110 3% 95%  
111 4% 92%  
112 1.5% 87%  
113 4% 86%  
114 8% 82%  
115 4% 74%  
116 4% 70%  
117 13% 66%  
118 2% 53%  
119 9% 51% Median
120 8% 42%  
121 2% 34%  
122 7% 32%  
123 3% 25%  
124 1.2% 22%  
125 6% 21%  
126 5% 15%  
127 0.5% 11%  
128 4% 10%  
129 2% 6%  
130 0.3% 4%  
131 1.4% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.1% 1.0%  
134 0.3% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.9% 99.3%  
85 0.3% 98%  
86 0.5% 98%  
87 0.3% 98%  
88 0.6% 97%  
89 3% 97%  
90 3% 93%  
91 7% 91%  
92 9% 84%  
93 4% 74%  
94 3% 71% Last Result
95 1.3% 68%  
96 6% 66%  
97 6% 60%  
98 6% 55% Median
99 23% 49%  
100 2% 25%  
101 3% 23%  
102 4% 20%  
103 0.9% 16%  
104 2% 15%  
105 0.9% 13%  
106 8% 12%  
107 1.4% 4%  
108 0.5% 3%  
109 1.3% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.0%  
111 0.1% 0.8%  
112 0% 0.7%  
113 0.4% 0.6%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.4%  
57 1.0% 98.7%  
58 0.6% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 4% 92%  
62 4% 88%  
63 11% 84%  
64 4% 73%  
65 6% 69%  
66 8% 62%  
67 6% 55% Median
68 10% 49%  
69 8% 39%  
70 4% 30%  
71 3% 26%  
72 5% 23%  
73 8% 18%  
74 2% 9%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.0% 4%  
77 0.7% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.0%  
58 2% 98.7%  
59 0.3% 97%  
60 4% 97%  
61 1.4% 93%  
62 4% 91%  
63 2% 87%  
64 8% 85%  
65 3% 77%  
66 17% 74%  
67 3% 57%  
68 17% 54% Median
69 3% 36% Last Result
70 9% 34%  
71 3% 25%  
72 4% 22%  
73 5% 18%  
74 3% 12%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 0.3% 99.2%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 2% 97%  
34 2% 96%  
35 5% 94%  
36 8% 88%  
37 8% 81%  
38 24% 73% Median
39 10% 49%  
40 7% 39%  
41 10% 33%  
42 5% 23%  
43 7% 18%  
44 3% 12%  
45 4% 8%  
46 1.2% 4% Last Result
47 1.2% 3%  
48 0.4% 2%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 477 100% 468–488 465–489 463–492 458–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 425 100% 416–435 412–438 409–441 405–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 396 100% 386–405 383–408 381–411 374–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 99.0% 363–384 361–387 358–389 353–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 359 62% 348–370 344–372 342–373 338–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 333 1.2% 326–346 324–350 320–352 316–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 336 1.0% 325–346 322–348 320–351 314–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 327 0.1% 321–335 315–342 313–344 306–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 307 0% 297–316 294–319 291–322 286–328
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 268–285 265–289 261–292 256–299
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 260–280 256–283 253–284 249–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 177–196 175–198 173–201 168–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 186 0% 176–196 173–197 173–201 168–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.7%  
458 0.1% 99.6%  
459 0.2% 99.5%  
460 0.5% 99.3%  
461 0.3% 98.8%  
462 0.2% 98%  
463 0.9% 98%  
464 1.2% 97%  
465 3% 96%  
466 0.7% 94% Last Result
467 0.8% 93%  
468 3% 92%  
469 12% 89%  
470 4% 77%  
471 2% 73%  
472 5% 71%  
473 4% 67%  
474 6% 63%  
475 1.5% 57% Median
476 3% 56%  
477 10% 53%  
478 3% 43%  
479 1.3% 40%  
480 4% 39%  
481 10% 35%  
482 4% 25%  
483 1.3% 21%  
484 3% 19%  
485 3% 16%  
486 2% 13%  
487 1.0% 11%  
488 3% 10%  
489 2% 7%  
490 0.3% 4%  
491 0.4% 4%  
492 2% 4%  
493 0.5% 2%  
494 0.3% 1.4%  
495 0.2% 1.1%  
496 0.3% 0.9%  
497 0.3% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.3%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0.1% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.8%  
404 0.2% 99.8%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 0% 99.3%  
407 0.1% 99.3%  
408 0.4% 99.2%  
409 2% 98.9%  
410 0.1% 97%  
411 0.1% 97%  
412 2% 97%  
413 2% 95%  
414 2% 92%  
415 0.3% 91%  
416 2% 90%  
417 8% 89%  
418 0.7% 80%  
419 0.2% 80%  
420 6% 79%  
421 9% 73%  
422 2% 64%  
423 0.2% 63% Median
424 2% 62%  
425 17% 60%  
426 5% 44%  
427 1.4% 39%  
428 4% 37%  
429 6% 34%  
430 6% 27%  
431 0.8% 21%  
432 0.8% 20%  
433 4% 19%  
434 4% 15%  
435 2% 11%  
436 0.4% 9%  
437 1.4% 9%  
438 4% 8%  
439 1.0% 4%  
440 0.1% 3%  
441 0.9% 3%  
442 0.9% 2%  
443 0.3% 1.1%  
444 0% 0.8%  
445 0.1% 0.8%  
446 0.3% 0.7%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0.1% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0.1% 100%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0.2% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.6% 99.4%  
377 0.2% 98.8%  
378 0.3% 98.6%  
379 0.3% 98%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.7% 98%  
382 1.2% 97%  
383 1.0% 96%  
384 0.8% 95%  
385 0.9% 94%  
386 4% 93%  
387 2% 89%  
388 1.5% 87%  
389 4% 85%  
390 4% 82%  
391 2% 78%  
392 4% 76%  
393 10% 71%  
394 3% 61% Median
395 3% 58%  
396 11% 55%  
397 2% 44%  
398 10% 42%  
399 8% 32%  
400 1.2% 24%  
401 5% 22%  
402 4% 17%  
403 1.3% 13%  
404 1.2% 12%  
405 3% 10%  
406 1.2% 7%  
407 0.8% 6%  
408 1.2% 5%  
409 1.1% 4%  
410 0.1% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.7% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.4%  
415 0.7% 1.3%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.2% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.4% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.0% Majority
356 0.4% 98.8%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.9% 98%  
359 0.3% 97%  
360 0.9% 97%  
361 3% 96%  
362 0.6% 94%  
363 4% 93%  
364 1.4% 89%  
365 1.3% 88%  
366 3% 87%  
367 2% 83%  
368 4% 81%  
369 2% 77%  
370 6% 75%  
371 3% 69%  
372 6% 66%  
373 10% 60% Median
374 1.0% 50%  
375 4% 49%  
376 10% 45%  
377 2% 35%  
378 2% 32%  
379 2% 30%  
380 7% 28%  
381 1.1% 21%  
382 7% 20%  
383 2% 13%  
384 1.3% 11%  
385 4% 10%  
386 0.8% 6%  
387 1.5% 5%  
388 1.1% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.7% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.4% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 0.9%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0% 0.4%  
397 0.2% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0.1% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.5%  
340 0.4% 99.3%  
341 0.2% 98.9%  
342 2% 98.7%  
343 2% 97%  
344 0.9% 95%  
345 1.4% 94%  
346 0.5% 93%  
347 0.8% 92%  
348 2% 91%  
349 2% 89%  
350 3% 87%  
351 3% 85%  
352 15% 81%  
353 3% 66%  
354 1.0% 63%  
355 2% 62% Majority
356 2% 60% Median
357 2% 58%  
358 5% 56%  
359 2% 51%  
360 11% 49%  
361 6% 38%  
362 10% 32%  
363 1.4% 23%  
364 2% 21%  
365 2% 20%  
366 0.3% 18%  
367 4% 18%  
368 2% 14%  
369 2% 12%  
370 4% 10%  
371 0.6% 6%  
372 3% 5%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.1% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.9%  
379 0.3% 0.7%  
380 0.2% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.2% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.4%  
318 0.2% 99.1%  
319 0.6% 98.8%  
320 0.8% 98%  
321 1.0% 97%  
322 0.5% 96%  
323 0.9% 96%  
324 2% 95%  
325 1.5% 93%  
326 2% 91%  
327 4% 90%  
328 2% 86%  
329 8% 83%  
330 13% 75%  
331 3% 63%  
332 5% 59%  
333 5% 54%  
334 8% 50% Median
335 8% 42%  
336 4% 34%  
337 5% 30%  
338 3% 25%  
339 2% 22%  
340 1.2% 20%  
341 2% 19%  
342 2% 17%  
343 1.4% 16%  
344 2% 14%  
345 1.4% 12%  
346 1.1% 11%  
347 0.4% 10%  
348 2% 10%  
349 0.9% 8%  
350 3% 7%  
351 2% 4%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.6% 2%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.2% Majority
356 0.3% 1.0%  
357 0.4% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0.1% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.2% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.4% 99.1%  
318 0.2% 98.7%  
319 0.7% 98%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 1.1% 97%  
322 1.5% 96%  
323 0.8% 95%  
324 4% 94%  
325 1.3% 90%  
326 2% 89%  
327 7% 87%  
328 1.1% 80%  
329 7% 79%  
330 2% 72%  
331 2% 70%  
332 2% 68%  
333 10% 65%  
334 4% 55%  
335 1.0% 51% Median
336 10% 50%  
337 6% 40%  
338 3% 34%  
339 6% 31%  
340 2% 25%  
341 4% 23%  
342 2% 19%  
343 3% 17%  
344 1.3% 13%  
345 1.4% 12%  
346 4% 11%  
347 0.6% 7%  
348 3% 6%  
349 0.9% 4%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 0.9% 3%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.1% 1.2%  
355 0.4% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.2% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0.1% 100%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.2% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.5%  
307 0% 99.3%  
308 0% 99.3%  
309 0.1% 99.2%  
310 0% 99.2%  
311 0.2% 99.1%  
312 0.8% 98.9%  
313 1.5% 98%  
314 1.0% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 0.8% 94%  
317 0.2% 93%  
318 0.2% 93%  
319 0.2% 93%  
320 1.3% 92%  
321 3% 91%  
322 4% 88%  
323 11% 85%  
324 3% 73%  
325 18% 70%  
326 0.7% 53%  
327 3% 52% Median
328 0.5% 49%  
329 0.7% 49%  
330 0.7% 48%  
331 7% 47%  
332 6% 40%  
333 11% 34%  
334 5% 23%  
335 8% 18%  
336 1.4% 10%  
337 1.2% 8%  
338 0% 7%  
339 0.1% 7%  
340 0.5% 7%  
341 0.2% 6%  
342 2% 6%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 2% 3%  
345 0.3% 1.4%  
346 0.4% 1.1%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.6%  
351 0.2% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0.2% 99.5%  
288 0.3% 99.2%  
289 0.3% 98.9%  
290 0.8% 98.6%  
291 1.0% 98%  
292 0.5% 97%  
293 0.5% 96%  
294 2% 96%  
295 2% 94%  
296 1.4% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 2% 88%  
299 2% 86%  
300 4% 83%  
301 3% 79%  
302 3% 76%  
303 3% 73%  
304 6% 70%  
305 4% 64%  
306 4% 61% Median
307 8% 56%  
308 7% 49%  
309 7% 42%  
310 6% 35%  
311 1.0% 30%  
312 2% 29%  
313 9% 27%  
314 6% 18%  
315 0.6% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 1.1% 9%  
318 3% 8%  
319 0.6% 5%  
320 1.3% 5%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.7% 3%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.7% 1.5%  
326 0.1% 0.7%  
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.3% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0.4% 99.3%  
259 0.5% 98.8%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 0.5% 97%  
263 0.5% 97%  
264 0.9% 96%  
265 1.3% 95%  
266 2% 94%  
267 0.9% 92%  
268 2% 91%  
269 2% 90%  
270 3% 88%  
271 4% 85%  
272 3% 81%  
273 6% 78%  
274 9% 72%  
275 2% 63% Median
276 10% 61%  
277 9% 51%  
278 3% 42%  
279 4% 39%  
280 6% 35%  
281 10% 29%  
282 2% 19%  
283 3% 17%  
284 3% 14%  
285 3% 12%  
286 1.4% 9%  
287 0.7% 7%  
288 1.3% 7%  
289 0.8% 5%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 1.3% 4%  
292 0.3% 3%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.2% 1.1%  
298 0.3% 0.9%  
299 0.4% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0.2% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.4% 99.6%  
250 0.1% 99.2%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0.4% 99.0%  
253 1.3% 98.6%  
254 0.2% 97%  
255 0.4% 97%  
256 2% 97%  
257 2% 95%  
258 0.2% 93%  
259 0.3% 93%  
260 8% 92%  
261 13% 84%  
262 0.3% 71%  
263 1.4% 71%  
264 9% 70%  
265 8% 60%  
266 0.1% 53%  
267 10% 52% Median
268 13% 42%  
269 4% 29%  
270 0.2% 24%  
271 2% 24%  
272 4% 22%  
273 1.1% 18%  
274 0.1% 17%  
275 3% 17%  
276 2% 15%  
277 0.6% 13%  
278 0.1% 12%  
279 1.1% 12%  
280 2% 11%  
281 0.7% 9%  
282 0.4% 8%  
283 3% 8%  
284 3% 4%  
285 0% 1.3%  
286 0% 1.3%  
287 0.6% 1.3%  
288 0.3% 0.7%  
289 0% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.4%  
291 0.2% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0.1% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.3% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.6%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0.7% 99.4%  
171 0.2% 98.6%  
172 0.4% 98%  
173 1.1% 98%  
174 1.0% 97%  
175 2% 96%  
176 1.5% 94%  
177 3% 92%  
178 3% 89%  
179 3% 86%  
180 4% 83%  
181 1.2% 79%  
182 2% 78%  
183 9% 76%  
184 5% 67%  
185 13% 62%  
186 4% 49%  
187 3% 44% Median
188 6% 42%  
189 2% 36%  
190 3% 34%  
191 4% 31%  
192 6% 27%  
193 5% 21%  
194 2% 16%  
195 2% 14%  
196 4% 12%  
197 1.2% 8%  
198 2% 7%  
199 0.7% 5%  
200 0.7% 4%  
201 1.2% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.7% 2%  
204 0.4% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.3% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.3%  
170 0.3% 99.1%  
171 0.6% 98.8%  
172 0.3% 98%  
173 3% 98%  
174 2% 95%  
175 2% 93%  
176 2% 91%  
177 2% 89%  
178 1.4% 87%  
179 1.3% 86%  
180 6% 84%  
181 2% 78%  
182 11% 77%  
183 6% 66%  
184 1.3% 60%  
185 6% 58%  
186 3% 52% Median
187 4% 49%  
188 5% 45%  
189 5% 40%  
190 13% 35%  
191 2% 21%  
192 1.5% 19%  
193 2% 18%  
194 4% 16%  
195 1.5% 12%  
196 4% 10%  
197 2% 6%  
198 0.9% 5%  
199 0.6% 4%  
200 0.5% 3%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.9% 2%  
203 0.5% 1.1%  
204 0.1% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations