Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 10–12 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.6–24.5% 21.2–24.9% 20.8–25.3% 20.2–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.8–24.2% 19.2–25.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.2–15.9% 11.7–16.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.6–10.7% 7.2–11.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.5% 6.3–10.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 161–184 158–188 156–190 151–196
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 153–179 150–181 148–182 145–188
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 97–116 94–118 92–121 88–125
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 90–108 87–111 86–113 81–117
Die Linke 69 67 60–76 59–78 57–81 53–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 53–69 51–71 50–73 47–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–44 31–46 30–48 28–50

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.5%  
153 0.5% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 98.9%  
155 0.8% 98.6%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 0.9% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 1.1% 94%  
160 2% 93%  
161 2% 92%  
162 2% 89%  
163 3% 87%  
164 1.4% 85%  
165 4% 83%  
166 3% 79%  
167 3% 77%  
168 6% 74%  
169 2% 68%  
170 5% 66%  
171 3% 61%  
172 6% 58%  
173 3% 52% Median
174 5% 50%  
175 6% 45%  
176 4% 39%  
177 5% 35%  
178 1.3% 30%  
179 6% 29%  
180 1.4% 22%  
181 5% 21%  
182 2% 16%  
183 2% 14%  
184 3% 12%  
185 1.1% 9%  
186 0.8% 7%  
187 2% 7%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.5% 4%  
190 1.3% 3%  
191 0.2% 2%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.4%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0% 0.4%  
198 0.2% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.3% 99.5%  
147 0.5% 99.2%  
148 2% 98.6%  
149 2% 97%  
150 0.6% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 1.5% 92%  
153 1.4% 91%  
154 2% 89%  
155 1.3% 88%  
156 1.0% 87%  
157 4% 86%  
158 7% 82%  
159 6% 75%  
160 3% 69%  
161 6% 66%  
162 2% 60%  
163 2% 58%  
164 2% 56%  
165 1.1% 54%  
166 3% 53%  
167 6% 50% Median
168 3% 45%  
169 4% 42%  
170 6% 38%  
171 7% 31%  
172 5% 24%  
173 0.4% 19%  
174 3% 19%  
175 3% 16%  
176 1.4% 14%  
177 0.5% 12%  
178 1.1% 12%  
179 2% 11%  
180 3% 8%  
181 2% 6%  
182 2% 3%  
183 0.2% 2%  
184 0.5% 1.3%  
185 0.2% 0.8%  
186 0% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.7%  
89 0.1% 99.3%  
90 1.1% 99.2%  
91 0.4% 98%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 0.7% 95% Last Result
95 4% 95%  
96 1.0% 91%  
97 6% 90%  
98 1.1% 84%  
99 6% 83%  
100 2% 77%  
101 7% 75%  
102 4% 68%  
103 5% 64%  
104 7% 59%  
105 6% 52% Median
106 6% 45%  
107 2% 39%  
108 7% 38%  
109 3% 30%  
110 6% 28%  
111 1.1% 21%  
112 5% 20%  
113 0.8% 16%  
114 3% 15%  
115 1.2% 12%  
116 4% 10%  
117 1.0% 6%  
118 0.8% 5%  
119 1.5% 4%  
120 0.1% 3%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0% 1.3%  
123 0.5% 1.2%  
124 0.1% 0.7%  
125 0.1% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 0.3% 99.3%  
83 0.3% 98.9%  
84 0.1% 98.7%  
85 0.8% 98.5%  
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 2% 94%  
89 2% 92%  
90 6% 91%  
91 3% 85%  
92 3% 82%  
93 1.5% 79%  
94 5% 77%  
95 8% 73%  
96 5% 65%  
97 3% 60%  
98 7% 57% Median
99 4% 50%  
100 10% 46%  
101 4% 36%  
102 3% 31%  
103 6% 28%  
104 4% 22%  
105 4% 18%  
106 0.6% 14%  
107 2% 14%  
108 2% 12%  
109 4% 10%  
110 0.7% 6%  
111 1.2% 5%  
112 1.0% 4%  
113 0.9% 3%  
114 1.2% 2%  
115 0.1% 0.9%  
116 0.1% 0.8%  
117 0.3% 0.7%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98.8%  
57 2% 98%  
58 0.4% 96%  
59 1.2% 95%  
60 5% 94%  
61 1.0% 89%  
62 5% 88%  
63 9% 83%  
64 7% 74%  
65 7% 68%  
66 9% 61%  
67 7% 52% Median
68 1.2% 45%  
69 9% 44% Last Result
70 3% 35%  
71 1.4% 32%  
72 8% 30%  
73 3% 22%  
74 3% 19%  
75 4% 16%  
76 4% 12%  
77 0.9% 8%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.2% 3%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.2% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.3%  
49 0.6% 98.7%  
50 1.4% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 94%  
53 5% 92%  
54 3% 87%  
55 6% 84%  
56 8% 78%  
57 4% 70%  
58 5% 66%  
59 7% 61%  
60 6% 54% Median
61 5% 48%  
62 6% 43%  
63 7% 37%  
64 5% 30%  
65 4% 25%  
66 5% 20%  
67 2% 16%  
68 4% 14%  
69 3% 10%  
70 1.3% 7%  
71 3% 6%  
72 0.7% 3%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.5%  
29 1.3% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 2% 95%  
32 2% 93%  
33 6% 91%  
34 8% 84%  
35 4% 76%  
36 6% 72%  
37 7% 65%  
38 7% 58%  
39 6% 52% Median
40 8% 45%  
41 9% 38%  
42 9% 29%  
43 6% 20%  
44 4% 14%  
45 4% 10%  
46 2% 6% Last Result
47 2% 4%  
48 0.9% 3%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 476 100% 462–489 458–491 456–492 451–499
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 439 100% 424–448 423–455 417–456 414–462
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 377 98% 362–390 360–394 358–397 351–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 94% 356–383 353–387 351–389 343–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 363 78% 348–378 343–380 341–382 337–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 6% 326–353 322–356 320–358 313–366
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 333 0.9% 317–345 314–348 310–349 306–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 309 0% 297–324 292–327 290–330 282–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 288–317 283–319 282–322 276–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 258–286 254–288 253–292 246–297
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 264 0% 251–278 246–281 246–282 240–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 155–177 153–181 150–184 146–189
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 148–170 145–173 143–176 138–181

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0% 99.7%  
450 0.1% 99.7%  
451 0.1% 99.5%  
452 0.1% 99.4%  
453 0.3% 99.3%  
454 0.3% 99.0%  
455 0.6% 98.8%  
456 1.5% 98%  
457 1.4% 97%  
458 0.7% 95%  
459 0.4% 95%  
460 0.9% 94%  
461 2% 93%  
462 3% 91%  
463 2% 88%  
464 3% 87%  
465 1.0% 84%  
466 2% 83% Last Result
467 3% 81%  
468 1.5% 78%  
469 3% 76%  
470 5% 73%  
471 3% 68%  
472 5% 65%  
473 3% 60%  
474 3% 57%  
475 4% 54%  
476 3% 51%  
477 3% 48% Median
478 8% 45%  
479 2% 37%  
480 3% 35%  
481 0.7% 32%  
482 0.9% 31%  
483 3% 30%  
484 5% 28%  
485 7% 22%  
486 4% 15%  
487 0.6% 11%  
488 0.5% 11%  
489 0.5% 10%  
490 3% 10%  
491 3% 7%  
492 1.2% 3%  
493 0.9% 2%  
494 0.1% 1.3%  
495 0.1% 1.2%  
496 0.2% 1.2%  
497 0.1% 1.0%  
498 0.2% 0.8%  
499 0.2% 0.6%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.2% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0.1% 100%  
408 0.1% 99.9%  
409 0.2% 99.8%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0% 99.5%  
412 0% 99.5%  
413 0% 99.5%  
414 0.4% 99.5%  
415 0.4% 99.2%  
416 0.8% 98.7%  
417 0.6% 98%  
418 1.1% 97%  
419 0% 96%  
420 0% 96%  
421 0% 96%  
422 0.6% 96%  
423 4% 96%  
424 3% 92%  
425 6% 88%  
426 0.8% 83%  
427 0% 82%  
428 0% 82%  
429 1.1% 82%  
430 4% 81%  
431 5% 77%  
432 10% 72%  
433 4% 62%  
434 0.4% 58%  
435 0.1% 58%  
436 0.3% 58%  
437 2% 58%  
438 5% 56%  
439 7% 50% Median
440 6% 44%  
441 6% 38%  
442 1.2% 32%  
443 0% 31%  
444 3% 31%  
445 2% 28%  
446 6% 27%  
447 8% 21%  
448 3% 13%  
449 0.6% 10%  
450 0.1% 9%  
451 0% 9%  
452 0.2% 9%  
453 2% 9%  
454 2% 7%  
455 2% 5%  
456 2% 3%  
457 0.1% 1.2%  
458 0.1% 1.1%  
459 0% 1.0%  
460 0.1% 1.0%  
461 0.3% 0.9%  
462 0.2% 0.6%  
463 0.3% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.4% 99.7%  
352 0.5% 99.3%  
353 0.4% 98.8%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 0.1% 98% Majority
356 0% 98%  
357 0% 98%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 1.4% 97%  
360 2% 96%  
361 2% 94%  
362 4% 93%  
363 0.5% 89%  
364 0.1% 88%  
365 0.8% 88%  
366 1.2% 87%  
367 1.5% 86%  
368 3% 85%  
369 7% 81%  
370 4% 74%  
371 3% 71%  
372 4% 68%  
373 0.3% 63%  
374 0.6% 63%  
375 1.3% 62%  
376 7% 61%  
377 5% 54%  
378 4% 49%  
379 7% 45% Median
380 6% 38%  
381 2% 32%  
382 0.4% 30%  
383 0.1% 29%  
384 3% 29%  
385 0.9% 26%  
386 6% 25%  
387 8% 20%  
388 0.6% 12%  
389 1.3% 11%  
390 1.3% 10%  
391 0% 9%  
392 0.1% 9%  
393 0.5% 9%  
394 4% 8%  
395 0.9% 5%  
396 0.8% 4%  
397 2% 3%  
398 0.2% 1.2%  
399 0% 1.0%  
400 0% 1.0%  
401 0.1% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.7%  
404 0.3% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0.1% 100%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.3% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.0%  
347 0.2% 98.8%  
348 0.1% 98.7%  
349 0.2% 98.6%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 2% 98%  
352 0.4% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.5% 95%  
355 3% 94% Majority
356 2% 92%  
357 4% 90%  
358 0.5% 85%  
359 2% 85%  
360 3% 83%  
361 3% 80%  
362 2% 77%  
363 2% 75%  
364 3% 73%  
365 4% 69%  
366 2% 65%  
367 2% 63%  
368 3% 61%  
369 4% 58%  
370 6% 54%  
371 6% 48% Median
372 4% 42%  
373 4% 38%  
374 3% 34%  
375 3% 31%  
376 5% 29%  
377 2% 24%  
378 2% 22%  
379 4% 20%  
380 1.3% 16%  
381 2% 15%  
382 2% 13%  
383 1.5% 11%  
384 1.0% 9%  
385 2% 8%  
386 0.9% 6%  
387 1.3% 5%  
388 1.2% 4%  
389 0.6% 3%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.5% 1.3%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.4% 99.7%  
338 0.2% 99.3%  
339 0.3% 99.0%  
340 0.3% 98.7%  
341 1.3% 98%  
342 2% 97%  
343 0.5% 96%  
344 0.3% 95%  
345 0.6% 95%  
346 2% 94%  
347 2% 92%  
348 1.0% 91%  
349 2% 90%  
350 2% 88%  
351 0.6% 86%  
352 2% 86%  
353 3% 84%  
354 3% 81%  
355 2% 78% Majority
356 2% 75%  
357 2% 73%  
358 6% 71%  
359 2% 65%  
360 5% 62%  
361 3% 58%  
362 4% 55%  
363 2% 51%  
364 3% 49% Median
365 4% 46%  
366 2% 42%  
367 6% 40%  
368 2% 34%  
369 4% 33%  
370 3% 29%  
371 2% 26%  
372 3% 24%  
373 4% 21%  
374 2% 17%  
375 3% 15%  
376 2% 12%  
377 0.5% 11%  
378 2% 10%  
379 2% 8%  
380 1.0% 5%  
381 2% 4%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 1.0% 2%  
385 0.2% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0.5% 99.2%  
317 0.2% 98.7%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.4% 98%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 1.2% 97%  
322 1.3% 96%  
323 0.9% 95%  
324 2% 94%  
325 1.0% 92%  
326 1.5% 91%  
327 2% 89%  
328 2% 87%  
329 1.3% 85%  
330 4% 84%  
331 2% 80%  
332 2% 78%  
333 5% 76%  
334 3% 71%  
335 3% 69%  
336 4% 66%  
337 4% 62%  
338 6% 58% Median
339 6% 52%  
340 4% 46%  
341 3% 42%  
342 2% 39%  
343 2% 37%  
344 4% 35%  
345 3% 31%  
346 2% 27%  
347 2% 25%  
348 3% 23%  
349 3% 20%  
350 2% 17%  
351 0.5% 15%  
352 4% 15%  
353 2% 10%  
354 3% 8%  
355 0.5% 6% Majority
356 0.5% 5%  
357 0.4% 5%  
358 2% 4%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.1% 1.4%  
362 0.2% 1.3%  
363 0.2% 1.2%  
364 0.3% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.2% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.5% 99.3%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 1.3% 98.7%  
311 0.2% 97%  
312 0.5% 97%  
313 1.1% 97%  
314 0.7% 96%  
315 1.0% 95%  
316 3% 94%  
317 1.0% 91%  
318 2% 90%  
319 2% 88%  
320 1.0% 86%  
321 0.8% 85%  
322 2% 84%  
323 2% 82%  
324 4% 81%  
325 5% 76%  
326 2% 71%  
327 3% 69%  
328 6% 67%  
329 3% 61%  
330 1.2% 59%  
331 3% 57% Median
332 2% 54%  
333 4% 53%  
334 2% 48%  
335 5% 46%  
336 6% 41%  
337 5% 35%  
338 5% 30%  
339 3% 25%  
340 2% 22%  
341 2% 20%  
342 2% 18%  
343 1.2% 16%  
344 4% 15%  
345 3% 11%  
346 0.4% 8%  
347 1.3% 8%  
348 3% 7%  
349 1.1% 4%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.4%  
355 0.1% 0.9% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.3% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.2% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.1%  
288 0.3% 99.0%  
289 1.1% 98.7%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.7% 97%  
292 2% 96%  
293 1.1% 94%  
294 0.7% 93%  
295 0.6% 92%  
296 0.9% 92%  
297 3% 91%  
298 2% 88%  
299 5% 86%  
300 2% 81%  
301 5% 79%  
302 2% 74%  
303 2% 72%  
304 2% 70%  
305 0.5% 69%  
306 6% 68%  
307 7% 62%  
308 3% 55%  
309 6% 52%  
310 6% 46%  
311 1.5% 40% Median
312 0.6% 38%  
313 3% 38%  
314 3% 34%  
315 2% 31%  
316 5% 30%  
317 6% 25%  
318 1.4% 19%  
319 2% 17%  
320 1.2% 15%  
321 0.3% 14%  
322 2% 14%  
323 1.0% 12%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 1.3% 7%  
327 2% 5%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 1.1% 3%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.0%  
334 0.2% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0.1% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0.4% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.2%  
278 0.5% 99.2%  
279 0.1% 98.7%  
280 0.1% 98.5%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 1.0% 98%  
283 3% 97%  
284 0.4% 94%  
285 2% 94%  
286 0.6% 91%  
287 0.7% 91%  
288 2% 90%  
289 1.2% 88%  
290 1.0% 87%  
291 2% 86%  
292 1.2% 84%  
293 2% 83%  
294 3% 81%  
295 3% 78%  
296 2% 76%  
297 3% 74%  
298 4% 70%  
299 3% 67%  
300 3% 63%  
301 4% 60%  
302 7% 56%  
303 5% 49%  
304 2% 44% Median
305 5% 42%  
306 5% 37%  
307 1.2% 32%  
308 3% 31%  
309 1.3% 28%  
310 3% 27%  
311 1.2% 24%  
312 3% 23%  
313 4% 20%  
314 2% 16%  
315 3% 15%  
316 1.2% 12%  
317 2% 11%  
318 0.2% 9%  
319 4% 9%  
320 0.5% 5%  
321 2% 4%  
322 0.8% 3%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.3%  
325 0.1% 0.9%  
326 0.4% 0.8%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0.2% 99.4%  
249 0.3% 99.2%  
250 0.1% 98.8%  
251 0.8% 98.8%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 2% 98%  
254 0.5% 95%  
255 2% 95%  
256 1.0% 93%  
257 1.2% 92%  
258 1.2% 91%  
259 1.0% 90%  
260 3% 89%  
261 2% 86%  
262 2% 84%  
263 3% 82%  
264 4% 78%  
265 3% 74%  
266 2% 71%  
267 3% 69%  
268 3% 66%  
269 6% 64%  
270 4% 57%  
271 3% 53% Median
272 5% 50%  
273 6% 45%  
274 4% 40%  
275 2% 35%  
276 2% 33%  
277 3% 32%  
278 4% 28%  
279 3% 25%  
280 2% 21%  
281 5% 20%  
282 0.9% 14%  
283 0.9% 14%  
284 1.5% 13%  
285 0.7% 11%  
286 1.1% 10%  
287 1.2% 9%  
288 3% 8%  
289 1.2% 5%  
290 0.9% 4%  
291 0.1% 3%  
292 2% 3%  
293 0.3% 1.2%  
294 0.1% 0.9%  
295 0.1% 0.8%  
296 0.2% 0.7%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0.1% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0.1% 100%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.4%  
242 0.4% 99.2%  
243 0.1% 98.8%  
244 0.1% 98.7%  
245 0.1% 98.6%  
246 4% 98.6%  
247 1.5% 95%  
248 2% 93%  
249 0% 92%  
250 0.1% 92%  
251 2% 92%  
252 5% 89%  
253 5% 84%  
254 0.9% 79%  
255 0.7% 78%  
256 1.0% 78%  
257 6% 77%  
258 5% 71%  
259 2% 66%  
260 3% 64%  
261 1.1% 61%  
262 1.3% 60%  
263 3% 59%  
264 7% 56%  
265 1.4% 49%  
266 2% 47% Median
267 0.4% 45%  
268 3% 45%  
269 8% 42%  
270 5% 34%  
271 3% 29%  
272 0.8% 26%  
273 0.4% 25%  
274 2% 25%  
275 7% 23%  
276 4% 16%  
277 2% 12%  
278 1.2% 11%  
279 2% 9%  
280 2% 8%  
281 2% 6%  
282 2% 4%  
283 0% 2%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.5% 1.3%  
287 0.3% 0.8%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.6% 99.3%  
148 0.6% 98.7%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 0.4% 98%  
151 0.6% 97%  
152 0.8% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 4% 90%  
157 1.4% 86%  
158 4% 84%  
159 1.4% 80%  
160 3% 79%  
161 3% 76%  
162 4% 73%  
163 9% 69%  
164 5% 61%  
165 4% 56% Median
166 3% 51%  
167 3% 48%  
168 8% 45%  
169 1.2% 37%  
170 5% 36%  
171 2% 31%  
172 4% 29%  
173 5% 25%  
174 3% 20%  
175 2% 17%  
176 4% 15%  
177 1.2% 10%  
178 2% 9%  
179 0.3% 7%  
180 1.1% 7%  
181 0.8% 5%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 0.9% 3%  
184 0.7% 3%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.1% 1.2%  
187 0.4% 1.1%  
188 0% 0.7%  
189 0.3% 0.7%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.1% 99.6%  
139 0.7% 99.5%  
140 0.2% 98.8%  
141 0.1% 98.6%  
142 0.9% 98%  
143 0.6% 98%  
144 2% 97%  
145 1.0% 95%  
146 2% 94%  
147 2% 93%  
148 2% 91%  
149 3% 89%  
150 1.4% 86%  
151 4% 85%  
152 4% 81%  
153 4% 77%  
154 2% 73%  
155 9% 71%  
156 2% 63%  
157 5% 61%  
158 6% 55% Median
159 3% 50%  
160 2% 47%  
161 4% 45%  
162 9% 41%  
163 5% 32%  
164 2% 27%  
165 5% 25%  
166 4% 20%  
167 0.2% 16%  
168 1.2% 16%  
169 2% 15%  
170 4% 13%  
171 1.2% 9%  
172 2% 8%  
173 2% 6%  
174 2% 4%  
175 0.1% 3%  
176 0.4% 3%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.1% 2%  
179 0.1% 2%  
180 0.7% 2%  
181 0.6% 0.8%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations