Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–13 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.1% 21.3–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.6–24.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 176 167–184 165–187 161–189 157–194
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 171 159–177 158–182 156–184 153–188
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 93–107 91–109 89–112 86–116
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 92 85–101 83–103 82–104 79–107
Die Linke 69 69 63–76 62–78 59–79 57–83
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 63 56–68 54–69 53–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 36–45 34–46 34–48 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.1% 99.5%  
158 0.2% 99.4%  
159 0.6% 99.2%  
160 0.8% 98.6%  
161 0.5% 98%  
162 0.4% 97%  
163 0.7% 97%  
164 0.9% 96%  
165 0.6% 95%  
166 2% 95%  
167 5% 93%  
168 2% 87%  
169 3% 86%  
170 3% 83%  
171 3% 80%  
172 5% 77%  
173 13% 72%  
174 4% 59%  
175 5% 55%  
176 5% 50% Median
177 4% 46%  
178 2% 41%  
179 6% 39%  
180 12% 33%  
181 7% 21%  
182 1.4% 14%  
183 1.0% 12%  
184 4% 11%  
185 2% 8%  
186 1.1% 6%  
187 1.2% 5%  
188 1.3% 4%  
189 0.9% 3%  
190 0.3% 2%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.5% 1.0%  
194 0.3% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.2% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0% 99.5%  
153 0.1% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.9% 99.1%  
156 2% 98%  
157 0.7% 96%  
158 5% 96%  
159 0.4% 90%  
160 2% 90%  
161 2% 88%  
162 8% 86%  
163 3% 79%  
164 2% 76%  
165 2% 74%  
166 2% 72%  
167 2% 70%  
168 9% 68%  
169 5% 59%  
170 2% 54%  
171 20% 52% Median
172 2% 32%  
173 2% 30%  
174 2% 28%  
175 10% 26%  
176 4% 16%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 0.3% 8%  
180 0.7% 8%  
181 0.4% 7%  
182 2% 7%  
183 0.8% 5%  
184 3% 4%  
185 0.2% 1.0%  
186 0.2% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.5%  
87 0.2% 99.4%  
88 1.3% 99.3%  
89 0.7% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 2% 94%  
93 6% 92%  
94 0.9% 86% Last Result
95 8% 85%  
96 5% 77%  
97 2% 72%  
98 12% 70%  
99 1.0% 57%  
100 10% 57% Median
101 4% 46%  
102 9% 42%  
103 11% 33%  
104 2% 22%  
105 6% 20%  
106 3% 14%  
107 2% 11%  
108 3% 9%  
109 0.7% 6%  
110 1.3% 5%  
111 0.9% 4%  
112 0.3% 3%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.4%  
115 0.3% 1.0%  
116 0.3% 0.7%  
117 0% 0.4%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 0.3% 99.2%  
81 0.7% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 94%  
85 4% 92%  
86 5% 89%  
87 3% 84%  
88 6% 81%  
89 12% 75%  
90 9% 63%  
91 3% 54%  
92 7% 51% Median
93 5% 43%  
94 4% 38%  
95 2% 34%  
96 4% 32%  
97 5% 28%  
98 2% 23%  
99 5% 20%  
100 4% 15%  
101 3% 11%  
102 3% 8%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.2% 3%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.2%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 1.1% 97%  
62 5% 96%  
63 3% 91%  
64 4% 87%  
65 8% 84%  
66 2% 76%  
67 11% 73%  
68 5% 62%  
69 12% 58% Last Result, Median
70 7% 46%  
71 6% 39%  
72 6% 32%  
73 9% 27%  
74 3% 18%  
75 5% 15%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.1% 1.0%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.0% 98.5%  
53 1.0% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 94%  
56 2% 90%  
57 6% 89%  
58 6% 83%  
59 7% 77%  
60 9% 70%  
61 4% 61%  
62 7% 57%  
63 13% 50% Median
64 5% 38%  
65 4% 32%  
66 9% 28%  
67 2% 19%  
68 7% 16%  
69 5% 10%  
70 0.7% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.3%  
74 0.6% 0.9%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.6%  
32 0.6% 99.3%  
33 0.7% 98.7%  
34 4% 98%  
35 1.1% 94%  
36 7% 93%  
37 7% 85%  
38 18% 78%  
39 10% 60% Median
40 7% 50%  
41 11% 43%  
42 10% 32%  
43 5% 22%  
44 5% 17%  
45 5% 12%  
46 3% 8% Last Result
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 3%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 468–488 464–489 462–492 456–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 436–458 434–459 431–461 425–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 385 100% 375–395 372–397 369–400 363–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 99.8% 367–388 362–393 362–393 358–400
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 370 97% 360–380 356–383 354–386 349–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 0.2% 321–342 316–347 316–347 309–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 326 0% 312–334 309–338 307–341 302–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 316 0% 304–327 301–331 300–332 294–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 309 0% 298–319 296–321 293–327 287–329
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 267–289 264–291 261–293 257–300
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 250–273 247–276 246–276 243–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 160 0% 152–172 151–175 150–176 145–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 156 0% 146–163 143–165 141–167 136–172

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0.1% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.3% 99.7%  
457 0.4% 99.4%  
458 0.2% 99.0%  
459 0.1% 98.9%  
460 0.2% 98.8%  
461 0.4% 98.5%  
462 2% 98%  
463 0.5% 96%  
464 0.7% 95%  
465 0.5% 95%  
466 1.2% 94% Last Result
467 2% 93%  
468 2% 91%  
469 3% 89%  
470 0.3% 86%  
471 2% 86%  
472 11% 84%  
473 10% 73%  
474 3% 63%  
475 0.5% 60%  
476 2% 60%  
477 4% 58%  
478 10% 54% Median
479 8% 44%  
480 2% 36%  
481 4% 34%  
482 4% 30%  
483 5% 26%  
484 4% 21%  
485 2% 17%  
486 0.4% 16%  
487 0.8% 15%  
488 7% 14%  
489 3% 8%  
490 0.7% 5%  
491 2% 4%  
492 0.4% 3%  
493 0.2% 2%  
494 0.9% 2%  
495 0.4% 1.0%  
496 0% 0.6%  
497 0.1% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.5%  
499 0.2% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.2% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.1% 99.5%  
427 0.3% 99.4%  
428 0.2% 99.1%  
429 0.2% 98.9%  
430 0.4% 98.6%  
431 1.0% 98%  
432 1.2% 97%  
433 0.9% 96%  
434 0.5% 95%  
435 2% 95%  
436 3% 93%  
437 0.5% 90%  
438 5% 89%  
439 5% 84%  
440 1.1% 79%  
441 1.3% 78%  
442 4% 77%  
443 1.5% 73%  
444 5% 71%  
445 0.7% 66%  
446 10% 66%  
447 3% 56%  
448 8% 53%  
449 2% 45% Median
450 11% 43%  
451 2% 32%  
452 2% 30%  
453 3% 28%  
454 7% 25%  
455 6% 18%  
456 0.3% 12%  
457 2% 12%  
458 5% 10%  
459 0.4% 5%  
460 0.2% 5%  
461 2% 4%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.3% 2%  
465 0.3% 1.3%  
466 0.4% 0.9%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0.1% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.2% 99.7%  
363 0.3% 99.5%  
364 0.1% 99.3%  
365 0.5% 99.2%  
366 0.4% 98.7%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.9% 98%  
370 0.5% 97%  
371 0.5% 96%  
372 1.2% 96%  
373 0.8% 94%  
374 1.4% 94%  
375 2% 92%  
376 2% 90%  
377 3% 88%  
378 6% 85%  
379 2% 79%  
380 2% 77%  
381 4% 75%  
382 9% 71%  
383 4% 63%  
384 5% 59%  
385 4% 54%  
386 6% 50% Median
387 5% 44%  
388 6% 39%  
389 6% 33%  
390 3% 27%  
391 4% 24%  
392 5% 20%  
393 1.5% 15%  
394 2% 14%  
395 2% 11%  
396 3% 9%  
397 1.5% 6%  
398 2% 5%  
399 0.6% 3%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.8% 2%  
402 0.3% 1.3%  
403 0.1% 1.0%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0.1% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0.1% 100%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0.2% 99.7%  
357 0% 99.6%  
358 0.8% 99.6%  
359 0.3% 98.8%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 3% 98%  
363 0% 95%  
364 1.4% 95%  
365 2% 93%  
366 0.4% 92%  
367 2% 92%  
368 5% 89%  
369 2% 84%  
370 0.3% 82%  
371 7% 82%  
372 4% 75%  
373 0.5% 72%  
374 5% 71%  
375 7% 67%  
376 0.4% 60%  
377 7% 59%  
378 4% 52% Median
379 6% 49%  
380 6% 42%  
381 2% 36%  
382 0.1% 34%  
383 4% 34%  
384 8% 30%  
385 4% 22%  
386 1.3% 18%  
387 7% 17%  
388 0.8% 10%  
389 0.5% 9%  
390 3% 9%  
391 0.3% 6%  
392 0.1% 6%  
393 3% 5%  
394 0.8% 2%  
395 0% 1.4%  
396 0.3% 1.4%  
397 0.4% 1.1%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.6% 99.6%  
350 0.7% 98.9%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 0.6% 98%  
353 0.1% 98%  
354 1.0% 98%  
355 0.2% 97% Majority
356 2% 96%  
357 0.6% 95%  
358 2% 94%  
359 0.3% 93%  
360 4% 92%  
361 5% 88%  
362 3% 84%  
363 2% 81%  
364 4% 78%  
365 2% 74%  
366 5% 72%  
367 7% 67%  
368 6% 60%  
369 1.1% 54%  
370 4% 53% Median
371 1.4% 49%  
372 3% 47%  
373 7% 44%  
374 2% 37%  
375 4% 35%  
376 5% 31%  
377 1.3% 25%  
378 5% 24%  
379 9% 19%  
380 1.3% 10%  
381 1.2% 9%  
382 2% 8%  
383 0.7% 6%  
384 1.1% 5%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.9% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.2% 1.4%  
391 0.8% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.2% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0% 99.3%  
312 0.4% 99.3%  
313 0.3% 98.9%  
314 0% 98.6%  
315 0.8% 98.6%  
316 3% 98%  
317 0.1% 95%  
318 0.3% 94%  
319 3% 94%  
320 0.5% 91%  
321 0.8% 91%  
322 7% 90%  
323 1.3% 83%  
324 4% 82%  
325 8% 78%  
326 4% 70%  
327 0.1% 66%  
328 2% 66%  
329 6% 64%  
330 6% 58%  
331 4% 51%  
332 7% 48% Median
333 0.4% 41%  
334 7% 40%  
335 5% 33%  
336 0.5% 29%  
337 4% 28%  
338 7% 25%  
339 0.3% 18%  
340 2% 18%  
341 5% 16%  
342 2% 11%  
343 0.4% 8%  
344 2% 8%  
345 1.4% 7%  
346 0% 5%  
347 3% 5%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.8% 1.2%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.4% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0.4% 98.8%  
307 2% 98%  
308 1.3% 97%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 2% 95%  
311 2% 93%  
312 3% 92%  
313 2% 89%  
314 3% 88%  
315 2% 84%  
316 3% 83%  
317 4% 80%  
318 2% 76%  
319 0.9% 74%  
320 4% 73%  
321 2% 69%  
322 4% 67%  
323 5% 63%  
324 5% 58%  
325 1.4% 53%  
326 8% 51% Median
327 11% 43%  
328 5% 32%  
329 7% 27%  
330 1.3% 20%  
331 2% 19%  
332 4% 17%  
333 0.9% 13%  
334 4% 12%  
335 1.3% 8%  
336 0.5% 7%  
337 1.4% 7%  
338 0.6% 5%  
339 0.1% 5%  
340 2% 4%  
341 0.7% 3%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.4%  
344 0.6% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.2% 99.9%  
294 0.3% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.4%  
296 0.1% 99.4%  
297 0.9% 99.3%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 3% 97%  
302 0.8% 95%  
303 0.3% 94%  
304 5% 94%  
305 3% 89%  
306 1.1% 86%  
307 0.4% 85%  
308 2% 85%  
309 4% 83%  
310 0.7% 79%  
311 0.8% 79%  
312 9% 78%  
313 16% 68%  
314 0.2% 52%  
315 1.4% 52% Median
316 10% 50%  
317 3% 40%  
318 0.3% 37%  
319 3% 37%  
320 10% 34%  
321 1.2% 24%  
322 0.3% 23%  
323 2% 22%  
324 9% 20%  
325 0.5% 11%  
326 0.1% 11%  
327 2% 11%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.2% 7%  
330 0.1% 7%  
331 4% 7%  
332 2% 3%  
333 0.2% 1.5%  
334 0.1% 1.3%  
335 0.4% 1.2%  
336 0.2% 0.8%  
337 0% 0.6%  
338 0% 0.6%  
339 0.3% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.3% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.2%  
290 0.8% 99.0%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 1.2% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 2% 94%  
298 8% 91%  
299 3% 83%  
300 3% 80%  
301 9% 77%  
302 0.5% 68%  
303 1.0% 67%  
304 2% 66%  
305 2% 64%  
306 2% 62%  
307 5% 60% Median
308 3% 56%  
309 4% 53%  
310 14% 49%  
311 1.4% 35%  
312 3% 34%  
313 2% 30%  
314 2% 29%  
315 3% 27%  
316 4% 24%  
317 7% 20%  
318 3% 13%  
319 3% 10%  
320 1.3% 7%  
321 1.0% 6%  
322 0.3% 5%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 0.2% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.5% 3%  
327 1.1% 3%  
328 0.7% 2%  
329 0.6% 0.9%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.2% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.4% 99.7%  
258 0.3% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.1%  
260 0.3% 98.9%  
261 1.0% 98.5%  
262 2% 97%  
263 0.3% 95%  
264 1.2% 95%  
265 0.9% 94%  
266 1.2% 93%  
267 2% 92%  
268 1.3% 89%  
269 2% 88%  
270 3% 86%  
271 4% 84%  
272 2% 80%  
273 5% 78%  
274 3% 73%  
275 8% 70%  
276 3% 62%  
277 12% 59%  
278 2% 47% Median
279 5% 45%  
280 7% 40%  
281 0.8% 33%  
282 3% 32%  
283 2% 29%  
284 6% 27%  
285 2% 21%  
286 5% 19%  
287 1.1% 14%  
288 2% 13%  
289 1.3% 11%  
290 4% 10%  
291 1.3% 5%  
292 1.0% 4%  
293 0.8% 3%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.6% 2%  
296 0.1% 1.1%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.3% 0.9%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.2% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.5% 99.5%  
244 0.4% 99.0%  
245 0.7% 98.6%  
246 2% 98%  
247 1.3% 96%  
248 2% 94%  
249 1.0% 92%  
250 2% 91%  
251 0.5% 89%  
252 0.7% 89%  
253 1.3% 88%  
254 1.4% 87%  
255 1.2% 85%  
256 2% 84%  
257 11% 82%  
258 2% 71%  
259 4% 70%  
260 12% 66%  
261 13% 54%  
262 1.1% 41%  
263 4% 40% Median
264 7% 36%  
265 1.2% 29%  
266 1.0% 28%  
267 1.3% 27%  
268 4% 26%  
269 0.9% 22%  
270 0.3% 21%  
271 5% 21%  
272 4% 16%  
273 3% 12%  
274 2% 9%  
275 2% 7%  
276 3% 6%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.7% 2%  
279 0.4% 1.2%  
280 0.2% 0.8%  
281 0% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.3%  
148 0.7% 99.0%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 1.4% 98%  
151 6% 96%  
152 2% 90%  
153 3% 88%  
154 2% 86%  
155 4% 84%  
156 6% 80%  
157 7% 74%  
158 2% 67%  
159 12% 65%  
160 7% 53%  
161 2% 46% Median
162 2% 45%  
163 2% 42%  
164 4% 40%  
165 2% 37%  
166 5% 35%  
167 5% 29%  
168 2% 24%  
169 3% 23%  
170 3% 19%  
171 6% 16%  
172 3% 10%  
173 1.3% 8%  
174 0.6% 6%  
175 3% 6%  
176 1.1% 3%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.6% 1.4%  
179 0.3% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0.3% 99.7%  
137 0.2% 99.4%  
138 0.7% 99.2%  
139 0.3% 98%  
140 0.3% 98%  
141 2% 98%  
142 0.7% 96%  
143 0.7% 95%  
144 2% 95%  
145 2% 92%  
146 2% 90%  
147 3% 88%  
148 2% 85%  
149 6% 83%  
150 3% 77%  
151 8% 74%  
152 6% 66%  
153 3% 61%  
154 3% 58%  
155 2% 55% Median
156 14% 53%  
157 2% 39%  
158 10% 37%  
159 4% 27%  
160 5% 23%  
161 2% 17%  
162 3% 15%  
163 3% 12%  
164 1.5% 9%  
165 3% 7%  
166 2% 4%  
167 0.5% 3%  
168 0.2% 2%  
169 0.6% 2%  
170 0.3% 1.4%  
171 0.4% 1.0%  
172 0.1% 0.6%  
173 0.3% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations