Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 7.9–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 150–167 147–169 145–171 141–176
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 150–167 147–169 145–172 141–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 106–121 103–123 102–125 98–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 91–105 89–107 88–109 84–113
Die Linke 69 72 66–78 64–80 62–82 60–85
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 59–70 57–72 56–74 53–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–51 39–52 38–53 36–56

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.3% 99.6%  
142 0.3% 99.4%  
143 0.5% 99.1%  
144 0.7% 98.6%  
145 0.9% 98%  
146 1.0% 97%  
147 1.4% 96%  
148 2% 95%  
149 2% 93%  
150 3% 91%  
151 4% 88%  
152 3% 84%  
153 5% 80%  
154 5% 75%  
155 6% 70%  
156 5% 64%  
157 5% 59%  
158 6% 54% Median
159 6% 48%  
160 5% 42%  
161 5% 37%  
162 6% 31%  
163 3% 25%  
164 5% 22%  
165 4% 17%  
166 3% 13%  
167 3% 11%  
168 2% 8%  
169 2% 6%  
170 0.9% 4%  
171 1.1% 4%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.2%  
175 0.2% 0.8%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.3% 99.4%  
143 0.6% 99.1%  
144 0.6% 98.5%  
145 0.7% 98%  
146 1.0% 97%  
147 2% 96%  
148 2% 95%  
149 2% 93%  
150 3% 91%  
151 4% 88%  
152 4% 84%  
153 5% 80%  
154 6% 75%  
155 4% 68%  
156 6% 64%  
157 7% 58%  
158 5% 52% Median
159 6% 46%  
160 6% 40%  
161 5% 34%  
162 5% 29%  
163 4% 24%  
164 4% 20%  
165 3% 17%  
166 3% 14%  
167 2% 11%  
168 3% 9%  
169 1.3% 6%  
170 1.2% 5%  
171 1.2% 4%  
172 0.7% 3%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.3%  
175 0.3% 0.9%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.7% 99.1%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 0.6% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 2% 90%  
107 6% 88%  
108 5% 82%  
109 4% 77%  
110 5% 73%  
111 8% 68%  
112 6% 60%  
113 6% 54% Median
114 9% 48%  
115 6% 39%  
116 3% 33%  
117 7% 29%  
118 6% 23%  
119 4% 17%  
120 2% 13%  
121 3% 11%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.5% 6%  
124 1.4% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.4%  
128 0.5% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4%  
86 0.5% 99.0%  
87 0.8% 98.5%  
88 2% 98%  
89 1.4% 96%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 93%  
92 6% 89%  
93 4% 83%  
94 5% 79%  
95 8% 74%  
96 7% 66%  
97 6% 59%  
98 6% 53% Median
99 7% 47%  
100 6% 40%  
101 5% 34%  
102 5% 29%  
103 5% 24%  
104 5% 19%  
105 3% 13%  
106 3% 10%  
107 3% 7%  
108 1.4% 5%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.1%  
113 0.2% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.7% 99.2%  
62 0.9% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 3% 94%  
66 4% 91%  
67 5% 86%  
68 7% 81%  
69 7% 74% Last Result
70 8% 67%  
71 8% 60%  
72 10% 52% Median
73 6% 42%  
74 8% 36%  
75 6% 28%  
76 5% 22%  
77 5% 17%  
78 3% 12%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 1.1% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.7% 99.2%  
55 1.0% 98.6%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 4% 94%  
59 5% 90%  
60 6% 85%  
61 7% 79%  
62 8% 72%  
63 8% 64%  
64 6% 56% Median
65 11% 50%  
66 6% 39%  
67 8% 33%  
68 6% 25%  
69 6% 19%  
70 4% 13%  
71 3% 9%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.1%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.4% 99.6%  
37 1.0% 99.2%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 3% 93%  
41 4% 90%  
42 9% 86%  
43 12% 77%  
44 9% 65%  
45 7% 56% Median
46 11% 48% Last Result
47 10% 38%  
48 8% 28%  
49 6% 21%  
50 4% 15%  
51 4% 11%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 460 100% 450–470 447–473 445–475 439–480
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 426 100% 416–436 413–439 410–441 405–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 381 99.9% 371–391 368–394 365–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 366 92% 356–376 353–379 350–382 345–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 80% 351–372 348–375 346–377 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 328 0.1% 318–338 315–341 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 322 0% 309–330 307–334 305–337 301–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 316 0% 307–327 303–330 301–333 296–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 301 0% 292–313 288–315 286–317 281–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 268 0% 258–278 255–281 252–283 248–288
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 257 0% 246–266 243–269 241–272 236–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 161–179 159–181 157–184 153–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 163 0% 154–171 152–174 150–176 145–181

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.7%  
440 0.3% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.2%  
442 0.2% 98.9%  
443 0.5% 98.7%  
444 0.5% 98%  
445 1.1% 98%  
446 1.1% 97%  
447 2% 96%  
448 1.1% 94%  
449 2% 93%  
450 2% 91%  
451 2% 89%  
452 4% 87%  
453 2% 82%  
454 7% 80%  
455 3% 73%  
456 5% 71%  
457 3% 65%  
458 2% 62%  
459 8% 60% Median
460 6% 52%  
461 7% 45%  
462 3% 38%  
463 5% 35%  
464 3% 31%  
465 2% 27%  
466 6% 25% Last Result
467 2% 19%  
468 6% 18%  
469 1.3% 11%  
470 3% 10%  
471 1.0% 7%  
472 1.0% 6%  
473 2% 5%  
474 0.4% 4%  
475 2% 3%  
476 0.2% 2%  
477 0.7% 2%  
478 0.2% 0.9%  
479 0.1% 0.7%  
480 0.2% 0.6%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.2% 0.3%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.2% 99.7%  
406 0.3% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.2%  
408 0.5% 98.9%  
409 0.4% 98%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.7% 97%  
412 1.3% 97%  
413 0.7% 95%  
414 2% 95%  
415 2% 92%  
416 1.4% 90%  
417 3% 89%  
418 3% 86%  
419 3% 83%  
420 3% 80%  
421 4% 77%  
422 6% 73%  
423 7% 67%  
424 4% 60%  
425 5% 56% Median
426 5% 51%  
427 4% 46%  
428 5% 42%  
429 4% 37%  
430 4% 33%  
431 4% 29%  
432 5% 24%  
433 3% 20%  
434 2% 16%  
435 3% 14%  
436 2% 11%  
437 2% 9%  
438 1.4% 8%  
439 2% 6%  
440 2% 4%  
441 0.6% 3%  
442 0.5% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.2%  
445 0.2% 0.9%  
446 0.2% 0.7%  
447 0.2% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.3% 99.4%  
362 0.3% 99.2%  
363 0.4% 98.8%  
364 0.5% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 1.1% 97%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 1.4% 95%  
369 2% 94%  
370 2% 92%  
371 2% 90%  
372 4% 88%  
373 4% 84%  
374 3% 81%  
375 4% 78%  
376 4% 74%  
377 5% 70%  
378 4% 66%  
379 5% 62%  
380 6% 57% Median
381 5% 51%  
382 5% 46%  
383 4% 42%  
384 6% 38%  
385 4% 32%  
386 3% 28%  
387 3% 25%  
388 5% 21%  
389 2% 17%  
390 2% 14%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 9%  
393 1.2% 7%  
394 1.3% 6%  
395 2% 5%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.4% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.1%  
401 0.2% 0.8%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.4% 99.3%  
348 0.4% 98.9%  
349 0.6% 98%  
350 0.7% 98%  
351 0.8% 97%  
352 0.9% 96%  
353 1.2% 95%  
354 2% 94%  
355 2% 92% Majority
356 3% 90%  
357 3% 87%  
358 3% 85%  
359 3% 82%  
360 4% 79%  
361 4% 75%  
362 5% 71%  
363 5% 67%  
364 5% 62%  
365 5% 56% Median
366 4% 51%  
367 4% 48%  
368 5% 44%  
369 4% 39%  
370 7% 34%  
371 4% 28%  
372 3% 24%  
373 3% 20%  
374 3% 18%  
375 3% 15%  
376 2% 12%  
377 3% 10%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 1.1% 6%  
380 1.1% 5%  
381 0.8% 4%  
382 0.8% 3%  
383 0.5% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.1%  
386 0.2% 0.8%  
387 0.2% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.3% 99.3%  
343 0.4% 99.0%  
344 0.3% 98.6%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.9% 98%  
347 0.9% 97%  
348 2% 96%  
349 1.1% 94%  
350 1.4% 93%  
351 2% 92%  
352 2% 90%  
353 3% 87%  
354 5% 85%  
355 3% 80% Majority
356 4% 77%  
357 5% 73%  
358 5% 69%  
359 4% 63%  
360 4% 59%  
361 4% 54% Median
362 5% 50%  
363 5% 45%  
364 5% 40%  
365 5% 36%  
366 3% 31%  
367 4% 28%  
368 5% 24%  
369 3% 19%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 14%  
372 3% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 2% 7%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0.8% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.3%  
381 0.3% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.2% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.4% 99.2%  
310 0.4% 98.9%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 2% 97%  
315 1.3% 95%  
316 1.2% 94%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 2% 88%  
320 2% 86%  
321 5% 83%  
322 3% 79%  
323 3% 75%  
324 4% 72%  
325 6% 68%  
326 4% 62%  
327 5% 58%  
328 5% 54% Median
329 6% 49%  
330 5% 43%  
331 4% 38%  
332 5% 34%  
333 4% 30%  
334 4% 26%  
335 3% 22%  
336 4% 19%  
337 4% 16%  
338 2% 12%  
339 2% 10%  
340 2% 8%  
341 1.4% 6%  
342 1.1% 5%  
343 1.1% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.2%  
348 0.3% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.2% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
301 0.3% 99.6%  
302 0.4% 99.3%  
303 0.4% 98.9%  
304 0.6% 98.6%  
305 1.3% 98%  
306 1.3% 97%  
307 1.1% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 3% 92%  
310 2% 90%  
311 2% 88%  
312 3% 86%  
313 3% 83%  
314 3% 80%  
315 2% 77%  
316 3% 75%  
317 3% 72%  
318 5% 69%  
319 4% 64%  
320 4% 61% Median
321 6% 57%  
322 8% 51%  
323 5% 44%  
324 4% 38%  
325 8% 34%  
326 4% 26%  
327 4% 21%  
328 3% 17%  
329 3% 14%  
330 2% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 1.0% 7%  
333 1.1% 6%  
334 0.8% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.6% 2%  
339 0.6% 2%  
340 0.2% 1.2%  
341 0.3% 0.9%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.5% 98.7%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 1.0% 97%  
303 1.2% 96%  
304 1.1% 95%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 92%  
307 3% 90%  
308 3% 88%  
309 3% 85%  
310 5% 82%  
311 2% 76%  
312 6% 75%  
313 5% 69%  
314 5% 64%  
315 7% 58%  
316 3% 52% Median
317 5% 48%  
318 5% 44%  
319 5% 39%  
320 4% 34%  
321 4% 30%  
322 3% 26%  
323 4% 22%  
324 3% 19%  
325 2% 16%  
326 2% 14%  
327 3% 12%  
328 2% 9%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.1% 6%  
331 1.3% 5%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.8% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.4% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.2% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0.4% 99.2%  
285 0.7% 98.8%  
286 1.1% 98%  
287 1.4% 97%  
288 1.0% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 1.0% 94%  
291 1.5% 93%  
292 3% 91%  
293 5% 89%  
294 5% 84%  
295 4% 79%  
296 2% 75%  
297 2% 74%  
298 5% 72%  
299 6% 67%  
300 8% 61%  
301 8% 54% Median
302 5% 46%  
303 2% 41%  
304 1.3% 39%  
305 4% 38%  
306 5% 34%  
307 6% 28%  
308 4% 22%  
309 4% 18%  
310 2% 14%  
311 0.7% 13%  
312 2% 12%  
313 2% 10%  
314 2% 8%  
315 2% 6%  
316 1.1% 4%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.4% 1.1%  
322 0.3% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.2% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.3% 99.4%  
250 0.3% 99.1%  
251 0.5% 98.8%  
252 0.8% 98%  
253 0.8% 97%  
254 0.9% 97%  
255 2% 96%  
256 1.4% 94%  
257 2% 93%  
258 3% 91%  
259 2% 88%  
260 4% 86%  
261 3% 82%  
262 4% 79%  
263 3% 75%  
264 5% 71%  
265 6% 66%  
266 3% 60%  
267 5% 56% Median
268 7% 51%  
269 4% 45%  
270 5% 41%  
271 5% 36%  
272 3% 31%  
273 4% 27%  
274 4% 23%  
275 3% 19%  
276 3% 16%  
277 2% 13%  
278 3% 11%  
279 1.5% 9%  
280 1.5% 7%  
281 1.3% 6%  
282 1.3% 4%  
283 0.5% 3%  
284 0.7% 2%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.3% 1.2%  
287 0.3% 0.9%  
288 0.3% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.6%  
237 0.2% 99.5%  
238 0.4% 99.3%  
239 0.4% 98.9%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.9% 98%  
242 1.1% 97%  
243 0.9% 96%  
244 1.5% 95%  
245 2% 93%  
246 2% 92%  
247 3% 89%  
248 3% 87%  
249 3% 84%  
250 4% 81%  
251 4% 77%  
252 4% 73%  
253 4% 69%  
254 5% 65%  
255 3% 60%  
256 6% 57% Median
257 7% 51%  
258 5% 44%  
259 4% 39%  
260 5% 35%  
261 4% 30%  
262 4% 26%  
263 4% 22%  
264 4% 17%  
265 2% 14%  
266 2% 12%  
267 2% 9%  
268 2% 8%  
269 1.3% 6%  
270 1.0% 4%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.6% 3%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.4% 1.4%  
275 0.3% 1.0%  
276 0.2% 0.7%  
277 0.2% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.6% 98.9%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 1.4% 97%  
159 2% 95%  
160 2% 94%  
161 3% 92%  
162 2% 89%  
163 5% 87%  
164 3% 82%  
165 5% 79%  
166 4% 73%  
167 5% 69%  
168 6% 64%  
169 6% 58%  
170 6% 52% Median
171 5% 46%  
172 6% 41%  
173 5% 36%  
174 5% 31%  
175 4% 26%  
176 4% 22%  
177 4% 18%  
178 3% 14%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 9%  
181 2% 7%  
182 1.0% 5%  
183 1.0% 4%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.4%  
187 0.3% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.3% 99.2%  
148 0.6% 98.8%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 1.1% 98%  
151 1.4% 96%  
152 2% 95%  
153 3% 93%  
154 2% 90%  
155 4% 88%  
156 2% 84%  
157 5% 82%  
158 6% 77%  
159 4% 71%  
160 5% 67%  
161 6% 62%  
162 6% 56% Median
163 5% 50%  
164 6% 46%  
165 6% 40%  
166 5% 33%  
167 5% 28%  
168 4% 23%  
169 3% 19%  
170 4% 16%  
171 2% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 7%  
174 2% 6%  
175 1.1% 4%  
176 0.6% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.6% 2%  
179 0.3% 1.1%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations