Opinion Poll by Kantar for Bild am Sonntag, 12–18 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.4–23.6% 20.1–23.9% 19.6–24.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 164 156–173 153–176 151–179 147–183
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 141–159 139–161 137–164 133–168
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 102–123 101–125 97–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 98–113 95–115 94–117 90–121
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 61–73 59–76 59–78 55–81
Die Linke 69 69 60–74 59–75 58–76 55–81
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–46 35–47 34–49 32–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.3% 99.6%  
148 0.3% 99.3%  
149 0.4% 99.0%  
150 0.7% 98.6%  
151 0.8% 98%  
152 1.2% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 1.5% 94%  
155 2% 93%  
156 3% 90%  
157 3% 88%  
158 4% 85%  
159 4% 81%  
160 4% 77%  
161 6% 73%  
162 5% 67%  
163 5% 62%  
164 7% 56% Median
165 4% 49%  
166 6% 45%  
167 5% 39%  
168 5% 34%  
169 5% 29%  
170 5% 25%  
171 4% 20%  
172 4% 16%  
173 3% 13%  
174 2% 10%  
175 2% 8%  
176 1.3% 6%  
177 1.3% 5%  
178 0.9% 3%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.5% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.4% 99.3%  
135 0.4% 99.0%  
136 0.8% 98.6%  
137 1.2% 98%  
138 1.0% 97%  
139 2% 96%  
140 2% 94%  
141 3% 92%  
142 3% 89%  
143 4% 87%  
144 4% 83%  
145 5% 79%  
146 5% 74%  
147 6% 70%  
148 6% 63%  
149 6% 57%  
150 5% 51% Median
151 6% 46%  
152 4% 41%  
153 5% 36%  
154 6% 31%  
155 4% 25%  
156 5% 22%  
157 3% 16%  
158 3% 13%  
159 2% 11%  
160 2% 8%  
161 2% 6%  
162 1.0% 5%  
163 1.1% 4%  
164 0.8% 3%  
165 0.5% 2%  
166 0.4% 1.3%  
167 0.3% 0.9%  
168 0.2% 0.6%  
169 0.2% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.6% 99.1%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 3% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 4% 87%  
107 4% 83%  
108 6% 78%  
109 6% 73%  
110 7% 66%  
111 5% 60%  
112 7% 54% Median
113 6% 47%  
114 6% 41%  
115 5% 35%  
116 5% 30%  
117 6% 25%  
118 4% 19%  
119 4% 15%  
120 3% 11%  
121 2% 9%  
122 1.5% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.0% 4%  
125 0.8% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.2%  
128 0.3% 0.8%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.5% 99.1%  
93 0.6% 98.6%  
94 1.3% 98% Last Result
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 93%  
98 3% 90%  
99 4% 87%  
100 4% 84%  
101 7% 79%  
102 7% 72%  
103 7% 65%  
104 5% 58%  
105 6% 54% Median
106 6% 47%  
107 7% 41%  
108 6% 34%  
109 6% 28%  
110 4% 22%  
111 3% 17%  
112 3% 14%  
113 2% 11%  
114 2% 8%  
115 2% 6%  
116 1.1% 4%  
117 1.3% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.3%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.2%  
57 0.2% 99.0%  
58 0.6% 98.8%  
59 4% 98%  
60 4% 94%  
61 0.7% 90%  
62 2% 90%  
63 6% 88%  
64 16% 82%  
65 4% 66%  
66 3% 62%  
67 5% 60%  
68 17% 55% Median
69 9% 37%  
70 2% 29%  
71 5% 27%  
72 5% 22%  
73 6% 16%  
74 2% 10%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.1% 98.9%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 93%  
61 3% 90%  
62 3% 87%  
63 3% 84%  
64 2% 81%  
65 2% 79%  
66 4% 77%  
67 5% 73%  
68 9% 69%  
69 10% 59% Last Result, Median
70 12% 50%  
71 9% 38%  
72 9% 28%  
73 7% 20%  
74 5% 13%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 0.9% 99.2%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 93%  
37 6% 89%  
38 8% 82%  
39 10% 75%  
40 10% 65%  
41 11% 55% Median
42 10% 43%  
43 8% 34%  
44 8% 26%  
45 5% 17%  
46 4% 12% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 468 100% 458–478 455–481 452–483 448–488
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 413–434 410–437 407–439 402–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 385 100% 375–396 372–400 369–403 365–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 99.8% 368–389 364–392 362–395 357–400
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 356 54% 344–366 342–369 340–372 334–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 0.2% 320–341 317–345 314–347 309–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.2% 319–341 316–344 314–347 309–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 318 0% 307–329 304–332 302–334 297–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 311 0% 300–322 297–324 294–327 290–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 273 0% 263–284 260–286 258–289 253–295
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 252–273 249–276 247–278 242–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 171–190 169–192 167–195 162–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 170–190 168–192 166–195 162–200

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.7%  
448 0.3% 99.6%  
449 0.3% 99.3%  
450 0.4% 99.0%  
451 0.6% 98.5%  
452 0.5% 98%  
453 0.6% 97%  
454 1.1% 97%  
455 2% 96%  
456 1.2% 94%  
457 2% 93%  
458 2% 90%  
459 2% 88%  
460 3% 86%  
461 3% 83%  
462 5% 80%  
463 4% 75%  
464 5% 71%  
465 5% 66%  
466 3% 61% Last Result
467 4% 58% Median
468 5% 54%  
469 7% 49%  
470 5% 41%  
471 5% 37%  
472 5% 32%  
473 2% 27%  
474 4% 24%  
475 4% 20%  
476 3% 17%  
477 2% 14%  
478 2% 11%  
479 2% 9%  
480 1.2% 7%  
481 2% 6%  
482 1.0% 5%  
483 1.2% 4%  
484 0.6% 2%  
485 0.6% 2%  
486 0.2% 1.2%  
487 0.2% 1.0%  
488 0.2% 0.7%  
489 0.1% 0.5%  
490 0.1% 0.4%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0.1% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.2% 99.4%  
404 0.3% 99.2%  
405 0.4% 98.9%  
406 0.8% 98.6%  
407 0.4% 98%  
408 1.2% 97%  
409 0.9% 96%  
410 1.4% 95%  
411 2% 94%  
412 1.0% 92%  
413 3% 91%  
414 2% 88%  
415 3% 86%  
416 3% 83%  
417 4% 80%  
418 5% 76%  
419 2% 71%  
420 8% 69%  
421 5% 61%  
422 4% 56%  
423 6% 53% Median
424 4% 47%  
425 5% 43%  
426 4% 38%  
427 4% 34%  
428 4% 30%  
429 3% 26%  
430 5% 23%  
431 2% 18%  
432 4% 16%  
433 2% 13%  
434 2% 10%  
435 2% 8%  
436 0.8% 6%  
437 1.3% 5%  
438 0.8% 4%  
439 0.7% 3%  
440 0.6% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.4% 1.3%  
443 0.2% 0.9%  
444 0.3% 0.7%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.3% 99.4%  
367 0.4% 99.1%  
368 0.5% 98.7%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 0.8% 97%  
371 0.9% 97%  
372 2% 96%  
373 1.2% 94%  
374 2% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 4% 89%  
377 3% 85%  
378 3% 82%  
379 3% 79%  
380 4% 76%  
381 4% 71%  
382 4% 67%  
383 3% 63%  
384 6% 61%  
385 6% 55% Median
386 5% 49%  
387 5% 44%  
388 6% 39%  
389 3% 33%  
390 4% 30%  
391 3% 25%  
392 3% 23%  
393 3% 20%  
394 3% 17%  
395 2% 14%  
396 2% 12%  
397 2% 9%  
398 1.5% 8%  
399 1.1% 6%  
400 1.0% 5%  
401 1.0% 4%  
402 0.6% 3%  
403 0.7% 3%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.3% 1.0%  
407 0.2% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.2% 99.6%  
358 0.3% 99.4%  
359 0.4% 99.1%  
360 0.5% 98.8%  
361 0.5% 98%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 1.0% 97%  
364 1.2% 96%  
365 1.2% 95%  
366 1.3% 94%  
367 2% 92%  
368 2% 91%  
369 4% 89%  
370 3% 85%  
371 3% 82%  
372 3% 79%  
373 5% 76%  
374 5% 71%  
375 4% 67%  
376 4% 62%  
377 4% 58%  
378 5% 54% Median
379 5% 49%  
380 5% 44%  
381 5% 39%  
382 4% 34%  
383 4% 30%  
384 3% 27%  
385 4% 23%  
386 3% 19%  
387 3% 16%  
388 2% 13%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 2% 7%  
392 1.1% 6%  
393 1.0% 4%  
394 0.9% 3%  
395 0.6% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.4% 1.1%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.2% 99.4%  
336 0.2% 99.2%  
337 0.4% 99.0%  
338 0.5% 98.7%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 1.1% 98%  
341 0.7% 97%  
342 2% 96%  
343 1.3% 94%  
344 3% 93%  
345 2% 90%  
346 2% 88%  
347 3% 86%  
348 2% 84%  
349 3% 82%  
350 4% 79%  
351 3% 75%  
352 7% 71%  
353 5% 65%  
354 6% 60%  
355 4% 54% Median, Majority
356 7% 50%  
357 4% 44%  
358 4% 40%  
359 5% 36%  
360 3% 32%  
361 4% 29%  
362 4% 25%  
363 2% 21%  
364 4% 19%  
365 2% 14%  
366 3% 12%  
367 1.4% 9%  
368 2% 8%  
369 2% 6%  
370 0.9% 5%  
371 1.1% 4%  
372 0.5% 3%  
373 0.7% 2%  
374 0.3% 1.4%  
375 0.3% 1.1%  
376 0.3% 0.9%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.4% 99.3%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.5% 98%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 0.9% 97%  
316 1.0% 97%  
317 1.1% 96%  
318 2% 94%  
319 2% 93%  
320 2% 91%  
321 2% 89%  
322 3% 87%  
323 3% 84%  
324 4% 81%  
325 3% 77%  
326 4% 73%  
327 4% 70%  
328 5% 66%  
329 5% 61%  
330 5% 56%  
331 5% 51% Median
332 4% 46%  
333 4% 42%  
334 4% 38%  
335 5% 33%  
336 5% 29%  
337 3% 24%  
338 3% 21%  
339 3% 18%  
340 4% 15%  
341 2% 11%  
342 2% 9%  
343 1.3% 8%  
344 1.2% 6%  
345 1.2% 5%  
346 1.0% 4%  
347 0.7% 3%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.4% 1.2%  
351 0.3% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.2% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.3% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.0%  
312 0.7% 98.7%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.9% 98%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 2% 96%  
317 1.3% 94%  
318 2% 93%  
319 2% 91%  
320 3% 89%  
321 2% 86%  
322 4% 84%  
323 2% 79%  
324 5% 77%  
325 3% 72%  
326 6% 70%  
327 3% 63%  
328 7% 61%  
329 3% 54%  
330 6% 51% Median
331 3% 45%  
332 6% 42%  
333 3% 35%  
334 5% 33%  
335 3% 27%  
336 4% 25%  
337 3% 21%  
338 3% 18%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 2% 11%  
342 2% 9%  
343 2% 7%  
344 1.0% 5%  
345 1.1% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 0.7% 3%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.5%  
350 0.3% 1.1%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.3% 99.2%  
300 0.5% 98.8%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 1.2% 97%  
304 1.2% 96%  
305 1.0% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 3% 87%  
310 3% 84%  
311 3% 81%  
312 4% 78%  
313 3% 74%  
314 6% 71%  
315 3% 65%  
316 5% 62%  
317 4% 57% Median
318 6% 53%  
319 4% 47%  
320 5% 43%  
321 5% 37%  
322 4% 32%  
323 3% 29%  
324 4% 25%  
325 3% 21%  
326 3% 18%  
327 3% 15%  
328 1.5% 12%  
329 3% 11%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.3% 7%  
332 1.2% 5%  
333 0.9% 4%  
334 1.0% 3%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.4%  
338 0.3% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.2% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.2% 99.3%  
292 0.5% 99.1%  
293 0.4% 98.6%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 0.8% 97%  
297 0.9% 96%  
298 2% 95%  
299 1.4% 93%  
300 1.4% 91%  
301 3% 90%  
302 2% 86%  
303 3% 84%  
304 4% 81%  
305 4% 77%  
306 5% 74%  
307 5% 69%  
308 3% 65%  
309 6% 62%  
310 4% 56% Median
311 5% 52%  
312 5% 47%  
313 5% 42%  
314 4% 37%  
315 4% 33%  
316 4% 29%  
317 4% 25%  
318 3% 21%  
319 3% 18%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.3% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 0.9% 4%  
327 0.8% 3%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.1%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.5%  
254 0.4% 99.3%  
255 0.3% 98.9%  
256 0.4% 98.6%  
257 0.7% 98%  
258 1.1% 98%  
259 0.9% 96%  
260 1.5% 96%  
261 1.0% 94%  
262 2% 93%  
263 2% 91%  
264 3% 89%  
265 3% 86%  
266 4% 83%  
267 3% 79%  
268 4% 76%  
269 4% 72%  
270 5% 68%  
271 5% 63%  
272 5% 58%  
273 5% 53% Median
274 4% 48%  
275 5% 43%  
276 5% 38%  
277 5% 34%  
278 4% 28%  
279 3% 24%  
280 3% 21%  
281 2% 18%  
282 3% 16%  
283 2% 12%  
284 2% 10%  
285 2% 8%  
286 2% 6%  
287 0.7% 5%  
288 1.1% 4%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.3%  
293 0.3% 0.9%  
294 0.1% 0.7%  
295 0.2% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.3%  
244 0.3% 99.0%  
245 0.4% 98.7%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.9% 98%  
248 1.0% 97%  
249 1.2% 96%  
250 2% 95%  
251 1.4% 93%  
252 2% 91%  
253 3% 89%  
254 4% 86%  
255 3% 82%  
256 3% 80%  
257 5% 76%  
258 4% 72%  
259 4% 67%  
260 6% 63%  
261 3% 57%  
262 5% 54% Median
263 5% 49%  
264 6% 44%  
265 3% 38%  
266 5% 35%  
267 3% 29%  
268 4% 26%  
269 4% 22%  
270 3% 18%  
271 3% 15%  
272 2% 12%  
273 1.5% 10%  
274 2% 9%  
275 1.1% 7%  
276 2% 6%  
277 1.0% 4%  
278 0.9% 3%  
279 0.5% 2%  
280 0.6% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.3%  
282 0.3% 0.9%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.2% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.2% 99.4%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.5% 98.8%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 0.7% 98%  
168 1.4% 97%  
169 2% 96%  
170 2% 94%  
171 2% 92%  
172 3% 90%  
173 4% 87%  
174 3% 83%  
175 4% 80%  
176 4% 76%  
177 4% 72%  
178 5% 68%  
179 5% 63%  
180 6% 58%  
181 6% 52% Median
182 6% 47%  
183 6% 41%  
184 5% 35%  
185 4% 30%  
186 7% 27%  
187 3% 20%  
188 3% 17%  
189 3% 14%  
190 2% 11%  
191 2% 9%  
192 2% 7%  
193 0.9% 5%  
194 1.1% 4%  
195 1.0% 3%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.4% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.2%  
199 0.2% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.6% 99.0%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 1.0% 98%  
167 1.2% 97%  
168 2% 96%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 2% 90%  
172 3% 87%  
173 4% 84%  
174 5% 80%  
175 4% 75%  
176 6% 72%  
177 4% 66%  
178 7% 62%  
179 5% 55%  
180 5% 50% Median
181 5% 45%  
182 5% 40%  
183 5% 34%  
184 3% 29%  
185 6% 26%  
186 3% 20%  
187 3% 17%  
188 2% 14%  
189 2% 12%  
190 2% 10%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.4% 6%  
193 1.1% 5%  
194 0.8% 4%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 0.8%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations