Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–20 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 174 165–182 162–186 161–189 157–194
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 169 161–179 158–182 155–183 152–189
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 102 93–108 90–109 88–110 87–116
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 95–106 91–108 89–113 85–116
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 62 56–68 54–69 53–70 50–75
Die Linke 69 61 57–69 55–70 53–71 50–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–45 34–47 33–49 31–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.2% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.5%  
158 0.7% 99.3%  
159 0.1% 98.6%  
160 0.2% 98%  
161 3% 98%  
162 0.9% 96%  
163 0.6% 95%  
164 2% 94%  
165 3% 92%  
166 1.2% 88%  
167 2% 87%  
168 7% 85%  
169 6% 78%  
170 0.8% 73%  
171 10% 72%  
172 6% 62%  
173 5% 56%  
174 3% 51% Median
175 2% 48%  
176 11% 46%  
177 1.2% 35%  
178 4% 34%  
179 12% 30%  
180 1.3% 18%  
181 1.2% 17%  
182 6% 16%  
183 2% 9%  
184 0.8% 8%  
185 1.4% 7%  
186 1.3% 5%  
187 1.1% 4%  
188 0.3% 3%  
189 0.9% 3%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0.1% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 1.0%  
193 0.3% 0.8%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.2% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.2% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.3% 99.1%  
155 2% 98.7%  
156 0.3% 97%  
157 1.0% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 1.0% 94%  
160 1.4% 93%  
161 6% 91%  
162 1.0% 85%  
163 2% 84%  
164 8% 82%  
165 2% 74%  
166 5% 72%  
167 13% 67%  
168 2% 54%  
169 3% 52% Median
170 7% 49%  
171 4% 43%  
172 2% 38%  
173 11% 36%  
174 4% 25%  
175 2% 21%  
176 4% 19%  
177 3% 15%  
178 1.5% 12%  
179 2% 10%  
180 3% 9%  
181 0.4% 6%  
182 1.3% 6%  
183 2% 4%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.6% 1.3%  
187 0.1% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.6%  
189 0.3% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.7%  
89 1.2% 97%  
90 0.9% 96%  
91 1.4% 95%  
92 1.4% 93%  
93 3% 92%  
94 7% 89%  
95 1.3% 83%  
96 6% 81%  
97 2% 75%  
98 2% 74%  
99 6% 71%  
100 0.7% 66%  
101 9% 65%  
102 12% 56% Median
103 5% 44%  
104 9% 39%  
105 0.5% 30%  
106 10% 29%  
107 9% 20%  
108 1.1% 10%  
109 5% 9%  
110 2% 4%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.2% 1.5%  
113 0.2% 1.3%  
114 0.4% 1.1%  
115 0.1% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.6%  
86 0.5% 99.4%  
87 0.3% 98.9%  
88 0.9% 98.6%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 1.2% 97%  
91 1.0% 96%  
92 0.8% 95%  
93 2% 94%  
94 1.0% 92% Last Result
95 2% 91%  
96 9% 89%  
97 4% 80%  
98 13% 76%  
99 8% 63%  
100 14% 55% Median
101 4% 41%  
102 10% 36%  
103 9% 26%  
104 4% 17%  
105 2% 13%  
106 3% 11%  
107 2% 9%  
108 1.2% 6%  
109 0.4% 5%  
110 0.5% 5%  
111 0.5% 4%  
112 0.4% 4%  
113 0.7% 3%  
114 0.8% 2%  
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.8%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.2%  
52 0.8% 99.1%  
53 3% 98%  
54 0.9% 96%  
55 4% 95%  
56 8% 91%  
57 2% 82%  
58 3% 80%  
59 12% 77%  
60 6% 65%  
61 4% 58%  
62 15% 54% Median
63 11% 40%  
64 2% 28%  
65 4% 27%  
66 6% 23%  
67 2% 17%  
68 8% 15%  
69 4% 7%  
70 0.8% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.2% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 1.2% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 1.0% 96%  
55 1.4% 95%  
56 3% 94%  
57 2% 91%  
58 6% 89%  
59 7% 83%  
60 10% 76%  
61 17% 65% Median
62 12% 49%  
63 5% 37%  
64 2% 32%  
65 2% 30%  
66 3% 28%  
67 6% 25%  
68 8% 18%  
69 3% 10% Last Result
70 4% 7%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.3% 1.4%  
73 0.1% 1.2%  
74 0.1% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.9%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.5%  
32 0.3% 99.4%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 8% 96%  
35 1.0% 89%  
36 1.0% 88%  
37 2% 87%  
38 26% 85%  
39 5% 59%  
40 6% 54% Median
41 3% 48%  
42 22% 45%  
43 4% 23%  
44 2% 19%  
45 8% 17%  
46 2% 9% Last Result
47 2% 7%  
48 1.2% 5%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.2% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 485 100% 476–494 474–497 470–500 464–505
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 446 100% 436–454 432–458 430–462 428–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 383 100% 374–395 370–398 369–401 364–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 376 99.8% 368–385 365–390 361–394 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 378 99.6% 366–388 362–390 361–394 355–399
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 333 0.2% 324–341 319–344 315–348 310–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 332 0.2% 321–342 317–346 316–347 310–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 314 0% 305–324 302–329 300–331 294–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 316 0% 305–327 302–329 299–331 294–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 276 0% 265–286 264–290 262–293 258–300
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 261–280 257–283 255–286 249–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 164 0% 155–172 152–173 147–176 145–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 151–171 150–172 148–174 145–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
459 0% 100%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0% 99.7%  
464 0.2% 99.7%  
465 0.1% 99.5%  
466 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
467 0.3% 99.0%  
468 0.4% 98.7%  
469 0.2% 98%  
470 0.9% 98%  
471 0.3% 97%  
472 1.0% 97%  
473 0.8% 96%  
474 1.3% 95%  
475 2% 94%  
476 4% 92%  
477 2% 88%  
478 4% 86%  
479 5% 82%  
480 2% 77%  
481 3% 75%  
482 4% 72%  
483 4% 69%  
484 6% 64%  
485 10% 58% Median
486 9% 48%  
487 11% 39%  
488 2% 28%  
489 5% 26%  
490 3% 21%  
491 2% 18%  
492 0.9% 16%  
493 2% 15%  
494 3% 13%  
495 2% 10%  
496 2% 8%  
497 1.4% 6%  
498 1.1% 5%  
499 0.8% 4%  
500 0.5% 3%  
501 0.7% 2%  
502 0.6% 2%  
503 0.2% 1.2%  
504 0.3% 1.0%  
505 0.3% 0.6%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0% 99.7%  
427 0.1% 99.6%  
428 0.4% 99.6%  
429 0.4% 99.1%  
430 2% 98.7%  
431 0.9% 96%  
432 1.1% 95%  
433 1.1% 94%  
434 0.9% 93%  
435 1.2% 92%  
436 4% 91%  
437 2% 87%  
438 7% 85%  
439 8% 78%  
440 2% 71%  
441 1.4% 68%  
442 1.3% 67%  
443 4% 66%  
444 2% 62%  
445 8% 59% Median
446 6% 52%  
447 9% 46%  
448 3% 36%  
449 3% 33%  
450 4% 30%  
451 4% 26%  
452 2% 22%  
453 8% 20%  
454 2% 12%  
455 2% 10%  
456 2% 8%  
457 0.6% 6%  
458 0.9% 6%  
459 0.9% 5%  
460 0.3% 4%  
461 0.8% 4%  
462 0.4% 3%  
463 0.5% 2%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.1% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.5%  
467 0.2% 1.2%  
468 0.4% 1.0%  
469 0.4% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.2% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.6% 99.4%  
366 0.4% 98.9%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.5% 98%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 3% 97%  
371 0.9% 94%  
372 0.8% 93%  
373 1.4% 92%  
374 5% 91%  
375 1.2% 86%  
376 3% 85%  
377 1.4% 82%  
378 2% 81%  
379 7% 79%  
380 9% 72%  
381 2% 63%  
382 3% 61%  
383 9% 58% Median
384 6% 50%  
385 9% 44%  
386 3% 34%  
387 3% 32%  
388 4% 29%  
389 4% 25%  
390 2% 21%  
391 2% 19%  
392 3% 17%  
393 2% 15%  
394 1.4% 13%  
395 2% 11%  
396 0.7% 9%  
397 1.4% 8%  
398 3% 7%  
399 1.2% 4%  
400 0.4% 3%  
401 0.7% 3%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.5% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.2%  
406 0.1% 0.9%  
407 0% 0.8%  
408 0.5% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.8% Majority
356 0.5% 99.5%  
357 0.1% 99.0%  
358 0.1% 98.9%  
359 0.1% 98.8%  
360 0.6% 98.7%  
361 0.7% 98%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 0.9% 97%  
364 0.5% 96%  
365 1.1% 95%  
366 1.1% 94%  
367 0.9% 93%  
368 9% 92%  
369 2% 83%  
370 2% 80%  
371 1.4% 78%  
372 4% 77%  
373 8% 73%  
374 13% 65%  
375 2% 52%  
376 3% 50% Median
377 3% 47%  
378 4% 43%  
379 14% 40%  
380 3% 25%  
381 2% 22%  
382 2% 20%  
383 2% 18%  
384 4% 15%  
385 2% 11%  
386 2% 9%  
387 1.0% 8%  
388 2% 7%  
389 0.1% 5%  
390 0.5% 5%  
391 0.8% 5%  
392 0.5% 4%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 1.1% 3%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.4% 1.5%  
398 0.3% 1.1%  
399 0.4% 0.8%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.2% 99.5%  
357 0.3% 99.3%  
358 0.2% 99.0%  
359 0.4% 98.8%  
360 0.7% 98%  
361 2% 98%  
362 1.3% 96%  
363 2% 95%  
364 1.0% 93%  
365 0.6% 92%  
366 2% 92%  
367 2% 89%  
368 1.3% 87%  
369 2% 86%  
370 3% 84%  
371 6% 80%  
372 3% 74%  
373 2% 71%  
374 6% 69%  
375 5% 63%  
376 4% 58%  
377 2% 54%  
378 5% 53% Median
379 8% 48%  
380 3% 40%  
381 4% 37%  
382 9% 33%  
383 1.1% 24%  
384 2% 22%  
385 6% 21%  
386 2% 15%  
387 2% 13%  
388 1.2% 11%  
389 2% 10%  
390 4% 8%  
391 0.2% 4%  
392 1.0% 4%  
393 0.4% 3%  
394 1.1% 3%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 1.2%  
398 0.4% 1.0%  
399 0.3% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0.4% 99.7%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98.5%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 1.1% 98%  
316 0.5% 97%  
317 0.5% 97%  
318 0.8% 96%  
319 0.5% 95%  
320 0.1% 95%  
321 2% 95%  
322 1.0% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 91%  
325 4% 89%  
326 2% 85%  
327 2% 82%  
328 2% 80%  
329 3% 78%  
330 14% 75%  
331 4% 60%  
332 3% 57% Median
333 3% 53%  
334 2% 50%  
335 13% 48%  
336 8% 35%  
337 4% 27%  
338 1.4% 23%  
339 2% 22%  
340 2% 20%  
341 9% 17%  
342 0.9% 8%  
343 1.1% 7%  
344 1.1% 6%  
345 0.5% 5%  
346 0.9% 4%  
347 0.9% 3%  
348 0.7% 3%  
349 0.6% 2%  
350 0.1% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 1.2%  
352 0.1% 1.1%  
353 0.5% 1.0%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.2% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.2% 99.4%  
312 0.2% 99.2%  
313 0.2% 99.0%  
314 0.5% 98.7%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 3% 97%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 1.4% 95%  
320 1.2% 93%  
321 2% 92%  
322 3% 90%  
323 2% 87%  
324 2% 85%  
325 1.2% 83%  
326 2% 82%  
327 6% 80%  
328 4% 74%  
329 7% 70%  
330 4% 63%  
331 5% 59%  
332 8% 55%  
333 7% 47% Median
334 3% 40%  
335 3% 37%  
336 3% 35%  
337 5% 31%  
338 8% 26%  
339 0.7% 19%  
340 5% 18%  
341 2% 13%  
342 1.2% 11%  
343 2% 10%  
344 0.7% 8%  
345 2% 8%  
346 2% 5%  
347 1.3% 4%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.5% 1.3%  
352 0.4% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.2% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.2% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.3% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.6% 99.1%  
298 0.3% 98.5%  
299 0.5% 98%  
300 1.1% 98%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 1.3% 96%  
303 2% 95%  
304 0.7% 93%  
305 4% 92%  
306 2% 88%  
307 1.3% 86%  
308 2% 84%  
309 7% 82%  
310 4% 75%  
311 7% 71%  
312 8% 64%  
313 2% 56%  
314 5% 54% Median
315 6% 49%  
316 6% 42%  
317 6% 37%  
318 4% 31%  
319 1.3% 27%  
320 2% 25%  
321 4% 24%  
322 5% 19%  
323 2% 14%  
324 3% 13%  
325 1.2% 9%  
326 1.0% 8%  
327 2% 7%  
328 0.4% 6%  
329 2% 5%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.4%  
335 0.5% 1.1%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
341 0.2% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.2% 99.1%  
298 1.3% 98.8%  
299 0.4% 98%  
300 0.5% 97%  
301 0.7% 97%  
302 2% 96%  
303 2% 94%  
304 0.5% 92%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 90%  
307 2% 88%  
308 6% 86%  
309 2% 80%  
310 3% 79%  
311 6% 75%  
312 6% 69%  
313 1.1% 63%  
314 3% 62%  
315 6% 59%  
316 3% 53% Median
317 9% 50%  
318 1.0% 41%  
319 7% 40%  
320 13% 33%  
321 1.0% 20%  
322 2% 19%  
323 2% 17%  
324 0.5% 15%  
325 1.4% 15%  
326 3% 13%  
327 1.0% 11%  
328 4% 10%  
329 0.9% 5%  
330 2% 5%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.1% 1.4%  
335 0.4% 1.3%  
336 0.1% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.4% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.7% 99.7%  
259 0.3% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 98.7%  
261 0.4% 98.6%  
262 2% 98%  
263 0.5% 96%  
264 0.5% 95%  
265 7% 95%  
266 2% 88%  
267 0.4% 86%  
268 4% 86%  
269 5% 82%  
270 0.9% 77%  
271 2% 76%  
272 10% 73%  
273 6% 63%  
274 1.3% 58%  
275 5% 57%  
276 9% 52% Median
277 1.0% 43%  
278 1.0% 42%  
279 6% 41%  
280 8% 35%  
281 0.5% 27%  
282 3% 26%  
283 8% 23%  
284 0.5% 15%  
285 0.6% 14%  
286 4% 14%  
287 3% 10%  
288 0.7% 7%  
289 0.9% 6%  
290 2% 6%  
291 0.2% 4%  
292 0.4% 3%  
293 0.9% 3%  
294 0.8% 2%  
295 0.1% 1.3%  
296 0.2% 1.2%  
297 0.2% 1.1%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0% 0.6%  
300 0.4% 0.6%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.6%  
250 0.5% 99.5%  
251 0% 99.0%  
252 0.3% 99.0%  
253 0.6% 98.7%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.5% 97%  
257 2% 97%  
258 0.8% 95%  
259 0.6% 94%  
260 2% 93%  
261 4% 92%  
262 2% 88%  
263 3% 86%  
264 3% 83%  
265 7% 80%  
266 2% 73%  
267 2% 70%  
268 6% 68%  
269 8% 63%  
270 3% 54%  
271 2% 51% Median
272 7% 49%  
273 6% 42%  
274 9% 36%  
275 1.0% 27%  
276 5% 26%  
277 4% 21%  
278 0.9% 17%  
279 6% 16%  
280 2% 10%  
281 1.3% 8%  
282 1.0% 7%  
283 1.2% 6%  
284 0.8% 4%  
285 0.5% 4%  
286 1.2% 3%  
287 0.1% 2%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.1% 1.2%  
290 0.1% 1.1%  
291 0.4% 0.9%  
292 0.3% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.6%  
145 0.1% 99.5%  
146 1.4% 99.4%  
147 0.6% 98%  
148 0.8% 97%  
149 0.3% 97%  
150 0.6% 96%  
151 0.6% 96%  
152 0.6% 95%  
153 1.0% 94%  
154 1.4% 93%  
155 3% 92%  
156 6% 89%  
157 0.5% 83%  
158 0.9% 82%  
159 3% 82%  
160 9% 79%  
161 5% 69%  
162 3% 65%  
163 9% 62% Median
164 11% 53%  
165 2% 42%  
166 0.7% 40%  
167 6% 39%  
168 16% 34%  
169 4% 18%  
170 1.3% 14%  
171 2% 12%  
172 3% 10%  
173 2% 7%  
174 0.4% 5%  
175 0.5% 5%  
176 2% 4%  
177 0.9% 2%  
178 0.5% 1.0%  
179 0.1% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.3% 99.9%  
145 0.4% 99.7%  
146 1.2% 99.3%  
147 0.4% 98%  
148 0.9% 98%  
149 0.4% 97%  
150 4% 96%  
151 4% 93%  
152 3% 89%  
153 2% 86%  
154 0.9% 83%  
155 0.9% 82%  
156 4% 82%  
157 2% 77%  
158 1.4% 76%  
159 3% 74%  
160 3% 71%  
161 1.1% 68%  
162 1.0% 66%  
163 2% 65%  
164 6% 64% Median
165 19% 58%  
166 12% 38%  
167 2% 26%  
168 1.3% 24%  
169 4% 23%  
170 8% 19%  
171 6% 11%  
172 3% 6%  
173 0.4% 3%  
174 0.3% 3%  
175 0.4% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.4%  
178 0.2% 1.1%  
179 0.2% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations