Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 149–164 147–169 142–171 139–173
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 148–165 146–168 144–171 139–174
Alternative für Deutschland 94 112 105–119 103–122 101–124 97–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 97 90–105 87–107 86–109 83–112
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 74 69–82 66–83 66–85 63–87
Die Linke 69 59 54–66 53–68 52–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 48–58 46–59 44–61 42–64

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.4% 99.8%  
140 0.5% 99.4%  
141 0.8% 99.0%  
142 1.0% 98%  
143 0.7% 97%  
144 0.6% 96%  
145 0.2% 96%  
146 0.3% 96%  
147 0.6% 95%  
148 3% 95%  
149 3% 92%  
150 6% 89%  
151 6% 83%  
152 11% 76%  
153 5% 65%  
154 2% 60%  
155 4% 58%  
156 1.1% 54%  
157 3% 53%  
158 4% 50% Median
159 10% 46%  
160 5% 36%  
161 7% 31%  
162 10% 24%  
163 3% 15%  
164 3% 11%  
165 0.6% 8%  
166 0.5% 8%  
167 0.3% 7%  
168 1.1% 7%  
169 0.7% 6%  
170 2% 5%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 1.4% 2%  
173 0.3% 0.8%  
174 0.2% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.7%  
140 0.2% 99.5%  
141 0.3% 99.3%  
142 0.5% 99.0%  
143 0.3% 98%  
144 1.0% 98%  
145 1.4% 97%  
146 0.9% 96%  
147 3% 95%  
148 2% 92%  
149 4% 89%  
150 5% 85%  
151 8% 80%  
152 4% 73%  
153 5% 69%  
154 2% 64%  
155 5% 62%  
156 3% 57%  
157 4% 54%  
158 4% 50% Median
159 10% 46%  
160 11% 36%  
161 5% 26%  
162 3% 20%  
163 5% 18%  
164 2% 13%  
165 3% 11%  
166 2% 8%  
167 1.2% 7%  
168 2% 6%  
169 0.4% 4%  
170 1.0% 4%  
171 0.8% 3%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.5% 1.3%  
174 0.4% 0.9%  
175 0.3% 0.5%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.6%  
98 0.5% 99.3%  
99 0.4% 98.8%  
100 0.7% 98%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 1.4% 97%  
103 4% 95%  
104 1.5% 92%  
105 2% 90%  
106 4% 88%  
107 4% 84%  
108 8% 80%  
109 9% 73%  
110 6% 64%  
111 4% 58%  
112 8% 54% Median
113 4% 46%  
114 17% 42%  
115 3% 25%  
116 6% 22%  
117 3% 16%  
118 2% 14%  
119 2% 11%  
120 3% 10%  
121 2% 7%  
122 1.5% 5%  
123 0.6% 4%  
124 1.3% 3%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.4% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0% 0.4%  
130 0.2% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.6%  
84 0.2% 99.4%  
85 1.0% 99.2%  
86 0.8% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 1.5% 94%  
89 2% 93%  
90 2% 91%  
91 3% 89%  
92 4% 86%  
93 15% 82%  
94 5% 66%  
95 5% 62%  
96 4% 57%  
97 7% 53% Median
98 9% 47%  
99 5% 38%  
100 4% 32%  
101 4% 28%  
102 7% 24%  
103 2% 16%  
104 3% 14%  
105 3% 11%  
106 0.6% 7%  
107 3% 7%  
108 0.9% 4%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.2% 0.8%  
112 0.1% 0.6%  
113 0.2% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 98.8%  
65 0.6% 98%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 7% 90%  
70 4% 83%  
71 6% 79%  
72 4% 73%  
73 4% 69%  
74 23% 65% Median
75 2% 42%  
76 5% 40%  
77 8% 35%  
78 2% 28%  
79 9% 26%  
80 4% 17% Last Result
81 3% 13%  
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.1% 4%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.6% 1.4%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.9% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 6% 94%  
55 4% 88%  
56 12% 84%  
57 5% 71%  
58 12% 66%  
59 5% 55% Median
60 10% 50%  
61 5% 40%  
62 6% 35%  
63 8% 29%  
64 4% 20%  
65 5% 16%  
66 2% 11%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.3% 3% Last Result
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.5%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.6% 99.1%  
44 1.1% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 1.2% 95% Last Result
47 3% 94%  
48 6% 91%  
49 5% 85%  
50 4% 80%  
51 21% 77%  
52 7% 55% Median
53 12% 48%  
54 5% 36%  
55 5% 31%  
56 13% 26%  
57 2% 13%  
58 4% 11%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.9% 5%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.3% 1.0%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 463 100% 453–472 449–475 447–478 442–483
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 441 100% 431–450 427–453 425–456 419–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 395 100% 386–405 382–408 380–412 374–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 380 99.9% 371–392 366–395 363–397 361–400
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 367 92% 356–375 352–379 348–383 344–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0.1% 318–338 315–341 313–344 307–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 321 0% 312–332 308–333 306–337 301–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0% 304–323 301–327 297–329 293–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 306 0% 296–317 292–320 290–321 285–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 284 0% 274–295 269–298 267–299 264–303
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 244–263 241–266 239–269 234–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 171 0% 163–181 160–184 158–186 155–189
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 156 0% 149–165 146–169 143–170 141–174

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.9%  
440 0.2% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.3% 99.6%  
443 0.1% 99.3%  
444 0.6% 99.2%  
445 0.2% 98.6%  
446 0.7% 98%  
447 1.0% 98%  
448 1.0% 97%  
449 0.7% 96%  
450 0.9% 95%  
451 0.9% 94%  
452 2% 93%  
453 2% 91%  
454 2% 89%  
455 2% 87%  
456 2% 84%  
457 2% 82%  
458 5% 80%  
459 2% 75%  
460 7% 73%  
461 8% 66%  
462 2% 58%  
463 9% 56%  
464 5% 47%  
465 8% 42% Median
466 5% 33% Last Result
467 3% 29%  
468 7% 25%  
469 3% 18%  
470 2% 15%  
471 3% 13%  
472 2% 11%  
473 2% 8%  
474 1.0% 7%  
475 1.3% 6%  
476 1.1% 4%  
477 0.5% 3%  
478 0.8% 3%  
479 0.5% 2%  
480 0.4% 1.4%  
481 0.2% 0.9%  
482 0.1% 0.7%  
483 0.2% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.1% 0.2%  
486 0.1% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.2% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.4% 99.2%  
422 0.2% 98.7%  
423 0.4% 98%  
424 0.3% 98%  
425 1.4% 98%  
426 1.0% 96%  
427 1.0% 95%  
428 1.0% 94%  
429 1.1% 93%  
430 1.2% 92%  
431 3% 91%  
432 4% 88%  
433 6% 84%  
434 3% 77%  
435 3% 75%  
436 2% 72%  
437 4% 71%  
438 4% 66%  
439 5% 62%  
440 2% 57%  
441 7% 55%  
442 5% 48% Median
443 4% 43%  
444 8% 40%  
445 6% 31%  
446 9% 25%  
447 2% 16%  
448 2% 15%  
449 1.5% 13%  
450 2% 11%  
451 2% 9%  
452 2% 8%  
453 2% 6%  
454 1.0% 4%  
455 0.5% 3%  
456 0.7% 3%  
457 0.3% 2%  
458 0.6% 2%  
459 0.7% 1.3%  
460 0.2% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0.1% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.3% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.4% 99.4%  
377 0.4% 99.0%  
378 0.3% 98.6%  
379 0.8% 98%  
380 1.2% 98%  
381 0.5% 96%  
382 1.4% 96%  
383 0.6% 94%  
384 0.8% 94%  
385 2% 93%  
386 2% 91%  
387 3% 88%  
388 3% 86%  
389 5% 83%  
390 1.4% 78%  
391 4% 77%  
392 6% 73%  
393 0.6% 67%  
394 10% 66%  
395 7% 57%  
396 5% 50% Median
397 3% 45%  
398 12% 42%  
399 1.3% 30%  
400 2% 29%  
401 5% 26%  
402 3% 21%  
403 3% 18%  
404 3% 15%  
405 3% 12%  
406 2% 10%  
407 2% 8%  
408 0.8% 6%  
409 0.6% 5%  
410 0.9% 4%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.6% 3%  
413 0.8% 2%  
414 0.5% 1.1%  
415 0.1% 0.7%  
416 0.2% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.9% 99.5%  
362 0.1% 98.7%  
363 1.3% 98.6%  
364 0.5% 97%  
365 1.1% 97%  
366 1.4% 96%  
367 0.7% 94%  
368 1.1% 94%  
369 1.3% 92%  
370 0.6% 91%  
371 1.3% 91%  
372 2% 89%  
373 0.3% 87%  
374 2% 87%  
375 3% 85%  
376 2% 81%  
377 10% 79%  
378 14% 69%  
379 3% 55%  
380 7% 53%  
381 2% 46% Median
382 5% 44%  
383 8% 39%  
384 4% 31%  
385 3% 27%  
386 3% 24%  
387 2% 21%  
388 1.5% 20%  
389 2% 18%  
390 1.3% 16%  
391 2% 14%  
392 3% 12%  
393 0.8% 9%  
394 2% 8%  
395 2% 6%  
396 1.1% 4%  
397 1.1% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.5% 1.1%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.2% 99.8%  
344 0.3% 99.6%  
345 0.6% 99.3%  
346 0.7% 98.7%  
347 0.4% 98%  
348 0.4% 98%  
349 0.4% 97%  
350 0.6% 97%  
351 0.2% 96%  
352 1.1% 96%  
353 1.2% 95%  
354 2% 94%  
355 1.2% 92% Majority
356 0.9% 91%  
357 3% 90%  
358 2% 87%  
359 8% 85%  
360 5% 76%  
361 5% 71%  
362 5% 66%  
363 3% 62%  
364 2% 59%  
365 2% 57%  
366 3% 55%  
367 3% 52%  
368 7% 49% Median
369 5% 42%  
370 9% 37%  
371 4% 27%  
372 8% 24%  
373 3% 16%  
374 2% 13%  
375 2% 11%  
376 0.5% 9%  
377 1.3% 9%  
378 1.1% 7%  
379 2% 6%  
380 1.1% 5%  
381 0.4% 4%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 1.3% 3%  
384 0.4% 1.4%  
385 0.2% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.2% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.4%  
310 0.3% 99.2%  
311 0.7% 98.9%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 1.4% 98%  
314 0.4% 96%  
315 2% 96%  
316 0.6% 94%  
317 3% 94%  
318 0.9% 91%  
319 4% 90%  
320 2% 86%  
321 4% 83%  
322 3% 80%  
323 3% 77%  
324 2% 74%  
325 4% 72%  
326 9% 68%  
327 3% 59%  
328 8% 56%  
329 9% 48% Median
330 3% 39%  
331 3% 36%  
332 3% 33%  
333 6% 30%  
334 0.8% 24%  
335 3% 23%  
336 6% 20%  
337 0.5% 14%  
338 5% 13%  
339 1.0% 8%  
340 1.3% 7%  
341 1.2% 6%  
342 2% 5%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.9%  
349 0.3% 0.7%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.2% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.5% 99.6%  
302 0.6% 99.1%  
303 0.3% 98.5%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.9% 98%  
307 0.8% 97%  
308 3% 96%  
309 2% 93%  
310 0.4% 92%  
311 0.6% 91%  
312 2% 91%  
313 7% 89%  
314 4% 82%  
315 3% 78%  
316 4% 74%  
317 2% 71%  
318 3% 68%  
319 2% 66%  
320 12% 63%  
321 9% 51%  
322 2% 42% Median
323 1.4% 40%  
324 9% 39%  
325 2% 30%  
326 6% 28%  
327 4% 23%  
328 0.6% 19%  
329 3% 18%  
330 2% 16%  
331 2% 13%  
332 5% 11%  
333 2% 6%  
334 0.4% 5%  
335 0.7% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.9% 3%  
338 0.9% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.2% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.5% 99.3%  
296 0.8% 98.9%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.7% 97%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 0.6% 96%  
301 0.8% 95%  
302 2% 94%  
303 2% 92%  
304 3% 90%  
305 3% 88%  
306 3% 85%  
307 3% 82%  
308 5% 79%  
309 2% 74%  
310 1.3% 71%  
311 12% 70%  
312 3% 58%  
313 5% 55%  
314 7% 50% Median
315 10% 43%  
316 0.6% 34%  
317 6% 33%  
318 4% 27%  
319 1.4% 23%  
320 5% 22%  
321 3% 17%  
322 3% 14%  
323 2% 12%  
324 2% 9%  
325 0.8% 7%  
326 0.6% 6%  
327 1.4% 6%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 1.2% 4%  
330 0.8% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.4% 1.4%  
333 0.4% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.3% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.2% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0.5% 99.6%  
286 0.3% 99.2%  
287 0.2% 98.9%  
288 0.2% 98.6%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 1.1% 98%  
291 0.8% 97%  
292 1.2% 96%  
293 0.8% 95%  
294 0.8% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 3% 91%  
297 1.3% 89%  
298 3% 87%  
299 8% 84%  
300 2% 77%  
301 1.3% 75%  
302 1.3% 73%  
303 10% 72%  
304 9% 62%  
305 3% 53%  
306 4% 51%  
307 3% 47% Median
308 4% 44%  
309 8% 40%  
310 1.4% 32%  
311 3% 30%  
312 2% 27%  
313 9% 25%  
314 1.0% 16%  
315 0.8% 15%  
316 3% 15%  
317 4% 12%  
318 3% 8%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.8% 5%  
321 2% 4%  
322 1.0% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.5%  
324 0.4% 1.3%  
325 0.3% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.3% 99.8%  
264 0.2% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.3%  
266 0.6% 99.2%  
267 2% 98.6%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 2% 97%  
270 0.9% 95%  
271 2% 94%  
272 2% 92%  
273 0.3% 91%  
274 1.1% 90%  
275 1.4% 89%  
276 0.6% 88%  
277 4% 87%  
278 3% 84%  
279 1.0% 80%  
280 8% 79%  
281 9% 72%  
282 5% 62%  
283 3% 57%  
284 11% 54% Median
285 13% 44%  
286 2% 30%  
287 2% 28%  
288 4% 26%  
289 2% 22%  
290 3% 20%  
291 2% 18%  
292 1.4% 16%  
293 2% 14%  
294 0.9% 13%  
295 4% 12%  
296 1.3% 8%  
297 0.2% 7%  
298 3% 7%  
299 1.1% 3%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.2%  
303 0.4% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.2% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.4%  
236 0.5% 99.3%  
237 0.7% 98.8%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 1.0% 98%  
240 0.9% 97%  
241 1.5% 96%  
242 2% 94%  
243 2% 92%  
244 2% 90%  
245 2% 88%  
246 2% 86%  
247 2% 84%  
248 4% 81%  
249 3% 78%  
250 5% 74%  
251 4% 70%  
252 7% 65%  
253 6% 58%  
254 8% 52%  
255 8% 44% Median
256 3% 36%  
257 5% 32%  
258 2% 27%  
259 6% 25%  
260 2% 19%  
261 2% 17%  
262 4% 14%  
263 2% 11%  
264 0.9% 9%  
265 1.3% 8%  
266 2% 6%  
267 0.7% 4%  
268 0.6% 4%  
269 1.3% 3%  
270 0.6% 2%  
271 0.2% 1.3%  
272 0.4% 1.1%  
273 0.3% 0.7%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.4%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.6% 99.6%  
156 0.2% 99.0%  
157 1.3% 98.8%  
158 1.4% 98%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 1.2% 95%  
161 1.1% 94%  
162 2% 93%  
163 1.1% 91%  
164 3% 90%  
165 2% 87%  
166 6% 84%  
167 15% 79%  
168 3% 64%  
169 8% 61%  
170 0.9% 54%  
171 4% 53% Median
172 3% 48%  
173 3% 45%  
174 5% 42%  
175 1.3% 37%  
176 8% 36%  
177 7% 28%  
178 6% 21%  
179 3% 15%  
180 2% 12%  
181 2% 10%  
182 0.9% 9%  
183 3% 8%  
184 0.9% 5%  
185 0.6% 4%  
186 2% 4%  
187 0.3% 2%  
188 0.9% 2%  
189 0.2% 0.7%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0.2% 0.4%  
192 0% 0.3%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.9% 99.5%  
142 0.6% 98.7%  
143 1.3% 98%  
144 0.5% 97%  
145 0.3% 96%  
146 1.0% 96%  
147 2% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 9% 91%  
150 4% 82%  
151 2% 78%  
152 2% 75%  
153 3% 74%  
154 4% 70%  
155 8% 66%  
156 15% 59% Median
157 4% 44%  
158 3% 40%  
159 2% 37%  
160 3% 36%  
161 1.5% 33%  
162 10% 31%  
163 9% 22%  
164 3% 13%  
165 2% 10%  
166 1.0% 9%  
167 0.6% 7%  
168 0.7% 7%  
169 2% 6%  
170 2% 4%  
171 0.8% 2%  
172 0.5% 1.4%  
173 0.3% 0.9%  
174 0.1% 0.6%  
175 0.1% 0.5%  
176 0.2% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations