Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 3–6 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.3–24.3% 21.0–24.6% 20.4–25.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.3% 20.1–22.5% 19.8–22.8% 19.6–23.1% 19.0–23.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.8% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.2% 13.4–16.5% 12.9–17.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.9% 12.0–13.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.5–14.4% 11.1–14.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.4% 7.7–9.2% 7.4–9.5% 7.3–9.7% 6.9–10.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 169 160–178 158–180 155–182 152–187
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 149–167 147–169 145–171 141–175
Alternative für Deutschland 94 110 103–118 101–120 99–122 96–126
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 96 89–103 87–105 85–107 82–110
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 66 60–72 59–74 57–75 55–79
Die Linke 69 62 57–69 55–70 54–72 51–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 48 43–52 41–54 40–55 38–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.4% 99.2%  
154 0.6% 98.8%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.0% 97%  
157 1.0% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 94%  
160 3% 92%  
161 4% 89%  
162 4% 85%  
163 3% 81%  
164 4% 78%  
165 5% 73%  
166 5% 68%  
167 5% 63%  
168 5% 58%  
169 7% 53% Median
170 7% 46%  
171 6% 39%  
172 5% 33%  
173 4% 28%  
174 5% 24%  
175 3% 20%  
176 2% 17%  
177 3% 14%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.2% 4%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.4%  
143 0.5% 99.2%  
144 0.9% 98.7%  
145 1.0% 98%  
146 0.9% 97%  
147 1.0% 96%  
148 3% 95%  
149 3% 92%  
150 3% 89%  
151 3% 86%  
152 3% 83%  
153 6% 80%  
154 6% 74%  
155 7% 69%  
156 4% 61%  
157 4% 57%  
158 8% 53% Median
159 8% 45%  
160 5% 38%  
161 4% 32%  
162 4% 29%  
163 5% 25%  
164 6% 20%  
165 3% 15%  
166 2% 12%  
167 2% 10%  
168 2% 8%  
169 2% 6%  
170 1.0% 4%  
171 0.6% 3%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.7% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.1%  
175 0.3% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.4% 99.2%  
98 0.8% 98.8%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 1.3% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 3% 93%  
103 4% 90%  
104 3% 87%  
105 5% 84%  
106 5% 79%  
107 5% 74%  
108 5% 69%  
109 6% 64%  
110 8% 58% Median
111 6% 50%  
112 8% 44%  
113 6% 36%  
114 6% 30%  
115 6% 24%  
116 4% 18%  
117 4% 14%  
118 3% 10%  
119 2% 7%  
120 2% 6%  
121 1.1% 4%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.5%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 0.7% 98.9%  
85 0.9% 98%  
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 3% 91%  
90 5% 88%  
91 4% 83%  
92 6% 79%  
93 7% 73%  
94 7% 66%  
95 8% 59%  
96 7% 51% Median
97 7% 44%  
98 6% 38%  
99 7% 32%  
100 5% 25%  
101 6% 20%  
102 3% 14%  
103 3% 12%  
104 2% 8%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.2% 4%  
107 1.2% 3%  
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.2%  
110 0.3% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.8% 99.1%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 5% 93%  
61 5% 88%  
62 6% 84%  
63 6% 77%  
64 7% 72%  
65 9% 64%  
66 8% 55% Median
67 9% 47%  
68 9% 38%  
69 7% 30%  
70 5% 23%  
71 6% 18%  
72 3% 12%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.5% 99.5%  
53 1.0% 99.0%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 94%  
57 4% 91%  
58 5% 87%  
59 5% 81%  
60 9% 76%  
61 10% 68%  
62 8% 57% Median
63 9% 49%  
64 8% 40%  
65 8% 32%  
66 6% 24%  
67 5% 18%  
68 4% 14%  
69 4% 10% Last Result
70 3% 7%  
71 1.4% 4%  
72 1.1% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.7%  
39 1.1% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 94%  
43 5% 91%  
44 10% 86%  
45 6% 75%  
46 13% 69% Last Result
47 6% 57%  
48 11% 51% Median
49 6% 40%  
50 12% 34%  
51 8% 22%  
52 5% 15%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 470 100% 460–480 458–483 455–485 450–489
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 440 100% 431–450 428–453 425–456 420–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 382–403 380–406 377–408 372–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 379 99.9% 368–389 365–391 362–394 357–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 99.3% 364–385 361–387 358–390 353–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 327 0% 316–337 313–340 311–342 306–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 309–330 306–333 305–336 299–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 306–327 303–329 301–332 296–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 312 0% 302–322 299–325 297–327 292–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 283 0% 272–292 270–296 267–298 262–303
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 244–263 241–266 239–269 234–274
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 153–171 151–173 149–175 145–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 158 0% 150–167 148–169 145–171 141–176

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.7%  
450 0.2% 99.6%  
451 0.2% 99.5%  
452 0.4% 99.3%  
453 0.4% 98.9%  
454 0.5% 98%  
455 1.0% 98%  
456 0.8% 97%  
457 1.2% 96%  
458 2% 95%  
459 2% 93%  
460 2% 92%  
461 3% 89%  
462 2% 86%  
463 4% 84%  
464 3% 80%  
465 5% 77%  
466 4% 72% Last Result
467 5% 68%  
468 5% 63%  
469 6% 58%  
470 4% 52%  
471 7% 48% Median
472 4% 41%  
473 5% 37%  
474 5% 33%  
475 6% 28%  
476 3% 22%  
477 4% 20%  
478 3% 16%  
479 2% 13%  
480 2% 10%  
481 2% 8%  
482 1.2% 6%  
483 1.3% 5%  
484 1.1% 4%  
485 0.5% 3%  
486 0.7% 2%  
487 0.3% 1.4%  
488 0.4% 1.1%  
489 0.2% 0.7%  
490 0.2% 0.5%  
491 0.1% 0.3%  
492 0.1% 0.2%  
493 0.1% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.2% 99.6%  
421 0.3% 99.5%  
422 0.3% 99.2%  
423 0.4% 98.9%  
424 0.6% 98%  
425 0.6% 98%  
426 1.1% 97%  
427 1.0% 96%  
428 2% 95%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 92%  
431 3% 90%  
432 3% 87%  
433 4% 84%  
434 3% 80%  
435 4% 78%  
436 4% 73%  
437 7% 69%  
438 4% 63%  
439 4% 58%  
440 5% 54%  
441 6% 49% Median
442 6% 44%  
443 4% 38%  
444 5% 34%  
445 3% 29%  
446 4% 25%  
447 3% 21%  
448 3% 18%  
449 3% 15%  
450 2% 12%  
451 2% 10%  
452 1.4% 8%  
453 2% 6%  
454 2% 5%  
455 0.7% 3%  
456 0.6% 3%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.5% 1.5%  
459 0.2% 1.0%  
460 0.3% 0.7%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0.1% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.2% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.6%  
373 0.2% 99.4%  
374 0.3% 99.2%  
375 0.4% 98.9%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 1.3% 96%  
380 2% 95%  
381 1.4% 94%  
382 2% 92%  
383 2% 90%  
384 2% 88%  
385 4% 85%  
386 2% 82%  
387 3% 79%  
388 6% 76%  
389 4% 70%  
390 4% 66%  
391 5% 63%  
392 4% 58%  
393 8% 53% Median
394 4% 45%  
395 4% 41%  
396 5% 38%  
397 5% 32%  
398 5% 28%  
399 4% 23%  
400 3% 19%  
401 2% 17%  
402 3% 14%  
403 3% 11%  
404 2% 9%  
405 1.2% 7%  
406 1.4% 5%  
407 1.1% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.7% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.4% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 0.9%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.2% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.2% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.4% 99.1%  
361 0.6% 98.7%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.4% 97%  
364 0.8% 97%  
365 2% 96%  
366 2% 94%  
367 2% 92%  
368 1.2% 91%  
369 2% 90%  
370 4% 87%  
371 4% 84%  
372 4% 80%  
373 2% 76%  
374 5% 73%  
375 5% 69%  
376 6% 64%  
377 4% 58%  
378 3% 54%  
379 6% 51% Median
380 6% 45%  
381 6% 39%  
382 3% 33%  
383 2% 30%  
384 6% 28%  
385 5% 22%  
386 4% 18%  
387 2% 14%  
388 1.1% 12%  
389 3% 11%  
390 3% 9%  
391 1.3% 6%  
392 0.5% 4%  
393 0.7% 4%  
394 1.1% 3%  
395 0.7% 2%  
396 0.4% 1.3%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.8%  
399 0.3% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0.2% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.3% Majority
356 0.4% 99.0%  
357 0.7% 98.7%  
358 0.6% 98%  
359 0.7% 97%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 1.4% 96%  
362 2% 94%  
363 2% 93%  
364 2% 91%  
365 3% 89%  
366 3% 86%  
367 3% 83%  
368 4% 80%  
369 4% 76%  
370 5% 71%  
371 4% 67%  
372 5% 63%  
373 4% 58%  
374 6% 54%  
375 5% 48% Median
376 5% 43%  
377 5% 38%  
378 4% 34%  
379 4% 29%  
380 3% 25%  
381 4% 22%  
382 3% 18%  
383 3% 15%  
384 2% 12%  
385 2% 10%  
386 2% 8%  
387 2% 6%  
388 0.9% 5%  
389 0.8% 4%  
390 0.5% 3%  
391 0.7% 2%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.4% 1.2%  
394 0.2% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.4%  
308 0.3% 99.1%  
309 0.4% 98.8%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 1.0% 97%  
313 1.4% 96%  
314 2% 95%  
315 2% 93%  
316 2% 91%  
317 2% 89%  
318 2% 87%  
319 3% 85%  
320 4% 82%  
321 3% 78%  
322 5% 75%  
323 3% 70%  
324 6% 67%  
325 5% 62%  
326 5% 56%  
327 5% 51% Median
328 5% 47%  
329 5% 41%  
330 5% 36%  
331 4% 31%  
332 4% 27%  
333 4% 23%  
334 3% 19%  
335 3% 16%  
336 3% 13%  
337 2% 11%  
338 2% 9%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.2% 5% Last Result
341 1.0% 4%  
342 0.8% 3%  
343 0.7% 2%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.6%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.8%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
301 0.2% 99.3%  
302 0.6% 99.1%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 1.5% 98%  
306 1.2% 96%  
307 1.1% 95%  
308 1.2% 94%  
309 3% 93%  
310 2% 90%  
311 2% 88%  
312 5% 86%  
313 4% 81%  
314 2% 77%  
315 4% 75%  
316 6% 71%  
317 4% 65%  
318 3% 61%  
319 7% 58%  
320 5% 52% Median
321 6% 46%  
322 5% 41%  
323 4% 36%  
324 3% 32%  
325 4% 28%  
326 5% 24%  
327 3% 20%  
328 2% 16%  
329 3% 14%  
330 2% 12%  
331 2% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.4% 6%  
334 1.0% 5%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.9% 3%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.4%  
339 0.4% 1.2%  
340 0.3% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.3%  
298 0.4% 99.1%  
299 0.4% 98.7%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 1.1% 97%  
303 1.4% 96%  
304 1.2% 95%  
305 2% 93%  
306 3% 91%  
307 3% 89%  
308 2% 86%  
309 3% 83%  
310 4% 81%  
311 5% 77%  
312 5% 72%  
313 5% 68%  
314 4% 62%  
315 4% 59%  
316 8% 55% Median
317 4% 47%  
318 5% 42%  
319 4% 37%  
320 4% 34%  
321 6% 30%  
322 3% 24%  
323 2% 21%  
324 4% 18%  
325 2% 15%  
326 2% 12%  
327 2% 10%  
328 1.4% 8%  
329 2% 6%  
330 1.3% 5%  
331 0.7% 4%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.6% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.1%  
336 0.2% 0.8%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.3% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.3%  
294 0.3% 99.1%  
295 0.6% 98.8%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.9% 98%  
298 1.4% 97%  
299 1.2% 95%  
300 1.3% 94%  
301 2% 93%  
302 3% 91%  
303 2% 88%  
304 4% 86%  
305 4% 83%  
306 2% 79%  
307 4% 77%  
308 5% 73%  
309 4% 68%  
310 5% 64%  
311 6% 59%  
312 4% 53%  
313 4% 48% Median
314 5% 44%  
315 5% 39%  
316 3% 34%  
317 6% 30%  
318 3% 24%  
319 2% 21%  
320 4% 18%  
321 3% 14%  
322 1.5% 11%  
323 3% 10%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 2% 6%  
326 0.7% 4%  
327 1.2% 4%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.3%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.2% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.4% 99.2%  
265 0.5% 98.9%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.7% 97%  
269 1.2% 97%  
270 2% 95%  
271 2% 94%  
272 2% 92%  
273 3% 90%  
274 3% 87%  
275 3% 84%  
276 3% 80%  
277 4% 77%  
278 3% 73%  
279 4% 70%  
280 5% 66%  
281 5% 61%  
282 5% 56%  
283 7% 51% Median
284 4% 44%  
285 4% 40%  
286 5% 36%  
287 5% 31%  
288 5% 26%  
289 3% 21%  
290 3% 18%  
291 2% 15%  
292 3% 12%  
293 2% 9%  
294 2% 8%  
295 1.2% 6%  
296 1.1% 5%  
297 1.1% 4%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.7% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.4%  
301 0.3% 1.0%  
302 0.2% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.5%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.2% 99.8%  
234 0.3% 99.6%  
235 0.3% 99.3%  
236 0.3% 99.0%  
237 0.5% 98.7%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 0.6% 98%  
240 0.7% 97%  
241 1.4% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 1.4% 93%  
244 3% 91%  
245 3% 88%  
246 5% 86%  
247 3% 81%  
248 3% 78%  
249 4% 75%  
250 5% 71%  
251 5% 65%  
252 4% 61%  
253 6% 57%  
254 6% 51% Median
255 5% 45%  
256 4% 40%  
257 5% 36%  
258 4% 30%  
259 4% 26%  
260 3% 22%  
261 4% 19%  
262 3% 16%  
263 3% 12%  
264 2% 10%  
265 2% 8%  
266 1.4% 6%  
267 0.8% 5%  
268 0.7% 4%  
269 0.8% 3%  
270 0.8% 2%  
271 0.4% 2%  
272 0.4% 1.2%  
273 0.3% 0.8%  
274 0.2% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.5% 99.0%  
148 0.7% 98.5%  
149 1.0% 98%  
150 1.3% 97%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 94%  
153 3% 92%  
154 3% 89%  
155 3% 86%  
156 5% 83%  
157 5% 79%  
158 5% 74%  
159 4% 69%  
160 6% 65%  
161 6% 59%  
162 5% 53% Median
163 6% 48%  
164 5% 41%  
165 5% 36%  
166 5% 31%  
167 5% 26%  
168 5% 21%  
169 3% 16%  
170 3% 13%  
171 2% 10%  
172 2% 8%  
173 1.5% 6%  
174 1.0% 4%  
175 1.0% 3%  
176 0.7% 2%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.5% 1.3%  
179 0.3% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.3% 99.5%  
143 0.2% 99.2%  
144 0.9% 99.0%  
145 0.7% 98%  
146 1.0% 97%  
147 1.3% 96%  
148 2% 95%  
149 1.3% 93%  
150 3% 91%  
151 3% 88%  
152 4% 85%  
153 4% 81%  
154 4% 77%  
155 8% 73%  
156 4% 65%  
157 7% 61%  
158 6% 54% Median
159 6% 48%  
160 5% 43%  
161 6% 38%  
162 6% 32%  
163 4% 26%  
164 4% 22%  
165 4% 18%  
166 3% 14%  
167 3% 11%  
168 1.4% 8%  
169 2% 7%  
170 1.3% 5%  
171 1.0% 4%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.5% 1.3%  
175 0.3% 0.9%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations