Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 7–8 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.6–24.4% 21.2–24.8% 20.9–25.2% 20.3–25.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.3–24.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.3–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 163–183 160–186 157–189 153–194
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 155–175 152–179 150–181 146–186
Alternative für Deutschland 94 106 97–114 95–117 93–119 89–123
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 90–107 88–109 86–111 82–115
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 61–76 59–77 58–79 55–83
Die Linke 69 60 54–67 52–69 50–71 48–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–44 32–46 31–47 28–50

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.3%  
155 0.4% 99.0%  
156 0.5% 98.6%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.9% 97%  
159 1.1% 96%  
160 1.4% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 92%  
163 2% 90%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 85%  
166 3% 82%  
167 4% 78%  
168 4% 75%  
169 5% 71%  
170 4% 66%  
171 6% 61%  
172 4% 55%  
173 4% 51% Median
174 6% 47%  
175 4% 40%  
176 4% 37%  
177 5% 32%  
178 4% 27%  
179 2% 23%  
180 4% 21%  
181 3% 17%  
182 3% 14%  
183 2% 12%  
184 2% 9%  
185 2% 7%  
186 0.9% 6%  
187 1.3% 5%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.2% 0.8%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.4% 99.3%  
148 0.4% 98.9%  
149 0.6% 98.5%  
150 0.7% 98%  
151 1.0% 97%  
152 1.4% 96%  
153 1.4% 95%  
154 2% 93%  
155 2% 91%  
156 2% 89%  
157 3% 87%  
158 3% 84%  
159 4% 81%  
160 4% 77%  
161 5% 73%  
162 6% 68%  
163 5% 62%  
164 4% 58%  
165 6% 54% Median
166 4% 48%  
167 5% 44%  
168 5% 38%  
169 4% 34%  
170 3% 30%  
171 3% 26%  
172 4% 23%  
173 3% 19%  
174 4% 16%  
175 2% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 1.3% 8%  
178 2% 7%  
179 1.4% 5%  
180 1.2% 4%  
181 0.6% 3%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.2%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 0.5% 99.0%  
92 0.6% 98%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.4% 97% Last Result
95 2% 95%  
96 2% 93%  
97 3% 92%  
98 2% 89%  
99 3% 86%  
100 4% 83%  
101 5% 79%  
102 4% 73%  
103 5% 69%  
104 5% 64%  
105 6% 59%  
106 7% 53% Median
107 6% 46%  
108 6% 40%  
109 6% 34%  
110 5% 28%  
111 4% 23%  
112 4% 19%  
113 3% 15%  
114 2% 12%  
115 2% 10%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.5% 5%  
118 0.9% 4%  
119 0.9% 3%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.4%  
122 0.3% 1.0%  
123 0.2% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.3% 99.4%  
84 0.5% 99.0%  
85 0.7% 98.5%  
86 1.1% 98%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 2% 93%  
90 3% 91%  
91 4% 88%  
92 4% 85%  
93 4% 81%  
94 6% 77%  
95 5% 71%  
96 6% 66%  
97 7% 60%  
98 6% 53% Median
99 7% 47%  
100 5% 40%  
101 5% 35%  
102 5% 30%  
103 5% 26%  
104 4% 20%  
105 4% 17%  
106 3% 13%  
107 2% 10%  
108 2% 8%  
109 1.3% 6%  
110 1.1% 4%  
111 1.1% 3%  
112 0.6% 2%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.1%  
115 0.2% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.6% 99.2%  
57 0.8% 98.6%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 3% 92%  
62 4% 89%  
63 5% 85%  
64 4% 80%  
65 5% 76%  
66 7% 70%  
67 7% 64%  
68 7% 57% Median
69 8% 50%  
70 8% 42%  
71 6% 34%  
72 5% 28%  
73 5% 23%  
74 4% 18%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.8% 2% Last Result
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.1%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 94%  
54 4% 91%  
55 5% 87%  
56 6% 82%  
57 7% 76%  
58 7% 69%  
59 8% 62%  
60 7% 54% Median
61 8% 47%  
62 7% 39%  
63 5% 32%  
64 6% 26%  
65 5% 21%  
66 4% 15%  
67 3% 11%  
68 2% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.4%  
30 1.1% 98.8%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 95%  
33 6% 92%  
34 6% 86%  
35 7% 80%  
36 9% 74%  
37 10% 65%  
38 9% 55% Median
39 10% 46%  
40 7% 36%  
41 7% 29%  
42 6% 22%  
43 5% 16%  
44 3% 11%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5% Last Result
47 1.4% 4%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.2%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 464–486 460–489 458–492 452–498
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 433–456 430–460 427–462 421–468
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 378 99.4% 366–390 362–393 359–396 353–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 376 99.1% 365–389 361–392 358–395 352–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 370 95% 358–382 354–386 351–388 346–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 340 6% 327–352 324–355 321–358 315–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 0.6% 319–343 316–347 313–350 307–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 309 0% 297–321 294–324 291–328 286–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 290–314 287–317 284–320 278–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 272 0% 261–284 257–287 254–290 249–296
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 259–283 256–286 253–289 248–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 156–177 153–180 151–182 146–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 158 0% 149–169 146–171 143–174 139–179

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.1% 99.7%  
451 0.1% 99.7%  
452 0.2% 99.6%  
453 0.2% 99.4%  
454 0.2% 99.1%  
455 0.3% 98.9%  
456 0.6% 98.6%  
457 0.5% 98%  
458 1.1% 98%  
459 0.6% 96%  
460 1.1% 96%  
461 1.3% 95%  
462 2% 93%  
463 1.1% 91%  
464 3% 90%  
465 3% 88%  
466 3% 85% Last Result
467 2% 82%  
468 6% 79%  
469 3% 74%  
470 4% 71%  
471 3% 67%  
472 5% 64%  
473 4% 59%  
474 5% 55% Median
475 4% 51%  
476 5% 46%  
477 5% 41%  
478 3% 36%  
479 4% 33%  
480 4% 29%  
481 4% 25%  
482 2% 21%  
483 3% 19%  
484 2% 16%  
485 2% 13%  
486 2% 11%  
487 2% 9%  
488 1.0% 7%  
489 1.0% 6%  
490 1.2% 5%  
491 0.8% 4%  
492 0.8% 3%  
493 0.4% 2%  
494 0.4% 2%  
495 0.4% 1.3%  
496 0.3% 0.9%  
497 0.1% 0.6%  
498 0.2% 0.5%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.3% 99.4%  
423 0.2% 99.2%  
424 0.3% 99.0%  
425 0.3% 98.6%  
426 0.6% 98%  
427 0.6% 98%  
428 0.7% 97%  
429 0.9% 96%  
430 1.1% 95%  
431 2% 94%  
432 1.4% 93%  
433 2% 91%  
434 2% 89%  
435 3% 88%  
436 2% 85%  
437 3% 82%  
438 4% 79%  
439 4% 76%  
440 3% 72%  
441 4% 69%  
442 4% 65%  
443 4% 61%  
444 4% 57% Median
445 6% 53%  
446 4% 46%  
447 4% 43%  
448 4% 38%  
449 4% 34%  
450 3% 30%  
451 4% 27%  
452 4% 23%  
453 3% 19%  
454 3% 16%  
455 2% 14%  
456 2% 11%  
457 1.3% 9%  
458 1.5% 8%  
459 1.2% 7%  
460 1.3% 5%  
461 1.0% 4%  
462 0.7% 3%  
463 0.5% 2%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.4% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.1%  
467 0.3% 0.8%  
468 0.1% 0.6%  
469 0.1% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.4% Majority
356 0.3% 99.1%  
357 0.3% 98.8%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.5% 98%  
360 0.5% 97%  
361 1.0% 97%  
362 0.9% 96%  
363 1.3% 95%  
364 2% 94%  
365 2% 92%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 89%  
368 3% 87%  
369 3% 85%  
370 4% 81%  
371 3% 78%  
372 3% 75%  
373 3% 71%  
374 3% 69%  
375 6% 65%  
376 4% 59%  
377 5% 56% Median
378 4% 50%  
379 3% 46%  
380 5% 44%  
381 4% 39%  
382 4% 35%  
383 5% 31%  
384 4% 26%  
385 2% 22%  
386 2% 20%  
387 2% 18%  
388 3% 16%  
389 3% 13%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 0.8% 5%  
394 0.7% 5%  
395 1.1% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.7% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.2% 1.2%  
400 0.2% 1.0%  
401 0.2% 0.8%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.2% 99.3%  
355 0.3% 99.1% Majority
356 0.3% 98.8%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.8% 98%  
359 0.4% 97%  
360 1.1% 97%  
361 1.2% 96%  
362 1.0% 95%  
363 2% 93%  
364 2% 92%  
365 2% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 2% 86%  
368 4% 84%  
369 3% 80%  
370 3% 77%  
371 4% 74%  
372 4% 70%  
373 4% 66%  
374 3% 61%  
375 5% 58%  
376 4% 53% Median
377 4% 49%  
378 4% 44%  
379 4% 40%  
380 3% 36%  
381 5% 34%  
382 3% 28%  
383 3% 26%  
384 3% 22%  
385 3% 19%  
386 2% 16%  
387 2% 14%  
388 2% 12%  
389 2% 10%  
390 2% 8%  
391 1.0% 7%  
392 1.0% 6%  
393 0.9% 5%  
394 1.0% 4%  
395 0.5% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0.3% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.3% 99.5%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.2% 98.9%  
350 0.5% 98.7%  
351 0.8% 98%  
352 0.3% 97%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 2% 97%  
355 1.0% 95% Majority
356 0.5% 94%  
357 2% 93%  
358 2% 91%  
359 1.3% 89%  
360 2% 88%  
361 4% 86%  
362 2% 82%  
363 3% 80%  
364 5% 77%  
365 3% 72%  
366 2% 69%  
367 5% 67%  
368 5% 61%  
369 2% 56% Median
370 6% 54%  
371 6% 48%  
372 3% 42%  
373 3% 40%  
374 5% 36%  
375 3% 31%  
376 2% 28%  
377 5% 26%  
378 2% 21%  
379 2% 19%  
380 3% 17%  
381 3% 14%  
382 1.0% 11%  
383 2% 10%  
384 2% 8%  
385 1.0% 6%  
386 0.8% 5%  
387 1.3% 4%  
388 0.7% 3%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.5% 2%  
392 0.1% 1.0%  
393 0.3% 0.9%  
394 0.2% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.2% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.3%  
318 0.3% 99.0%  
319 0.5% 98.7%  
320 0.3% 98%  
321 0.6% 98%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 0.8% 96%  
324 1.0% 96%  
325 1.3% 95%  
326 2% 93%  
327 2% 92%  
328 2% 90%  
329 3% 88%  
330 2% 85%  
331 3% 83%  
332 3% 79%  
333 3% 77%  
334 5% 74%  
335 3% 69%  
336 3% 66%  
337 4% 63%  
338 5% 59%  
339 3% 54% Median
340 5% 50%  
341 5% 45%  
342 3% 40%  
343 5% 37%  
344 3% 32%  
345 3% 29%  
346 4% 26%  
347 3% 22%  
348 3% 20%  
349 3% 17%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 0.9% 7%  
355 1.4% 6% Majority
356 0.6% 4%  
357 0.9% 4%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.4% 1.3%  
362 0.3% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0.2% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.2% 99.2%  
310 0.2% 99.0%  
311 0.3% 98.8%  
312 0.7% 98%  
313 0.5% 98%  
314 1.1% 97%  
315 0.7% 96%  
316 0.8% 95%  
317 1.2% 95%  
318 2% 93%  
319 2% 92%  
320 3% 90%  
321 3% 87%  
322 2% 84%  
323 2% 82%  
324 2% 80%  
325 4% 78%  
326 5% 74%  
327 4% 69%  
328 4% 65%  
329 5% 61%  
330 3% 56%  
331 4% 54% Median
332 5% 50%  
333 4% 44%  
334 6% 41%  
335 3% 35%  
336 3% 31%  
337 3% 29%  
338 3% 25%  
339 4% 22%  
340 3% 19%  
341 3% 15%  
342 2% 13%  
343 2% 11%  
344 2% 9%  
345 2% 8%  
346 1.3% 6%  
347 0.9% 5%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.5% 3%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.3% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.6% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.3% 99.1%  
289 0.3% 98.8%  
290 0.6% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 1.1% 97%  
294 0.8% 96%  
295 1.5% 95%  
296 2% 93%  
297 2% 92%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 83%  
302 3% 80%  
303 3% 77%  
304 4% 74%  
305 3% 70%  
306 4% 67%  
307 6% 63%  
308 3% 57%  
309 4% 54% Median
310 5% 50%  
311 4% 45%  
312 4% 41%  
313 4% 37%  
314 4% 33%  
315 4% 30%  
316 4% 25%  
317 4% 22%  
318 2% 18%  
319 3% 16%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.0% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 0.7% 4%  
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.6% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 98.9%  
282 0.4% 98.6%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 0.9% 97%  
286 0.7% 96%  
287 1.3% 95%  
288 2% 94%  
289 2% 92%  
290 2% 91%  
291 3% 89%  
292 2% 86%  
293 3% 84%  
294 3% 81%  
295 4% 78%  
296 2% 74%  
297 4% 71%  
298 3% 67%  
299 5% 64%  
300 5% 60%  
301 3% 55% Median
302 6% 52%  
303 4% 46%  
304 5% 42%  
305 3% 37%  
306 3% 34%  
307 3% 30%  
308 4% 27%  
309 3% 24%  
310 3% 21%  
311 2% 18%  
312 3% 15%  
313 2% 13%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.1% 7%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 1.0% 5%  
319 0.9% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.3% 99.6%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0.4% 99.2%  
252 0.5% 98.8%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.8% 98%  
255 0.6% 97%  
256 1.0% 97%  
257 1.0% 96%  
258 1.4% 95%  
259 2% 93%  
260 2% 92%  
261 3% 90%  
262 2% 87%  
263 3% 85%  
264 3% 82%  
265 3% 79%  
266 4% 76%  
267 4% 73%  
268 4% 69%  
269 4% 65%  
270 4% 61%  
271 5% 57% Median
272 3% 52%  
273 4% 48%  
274 6% 44%  
275 4% 38%  
276 4% 34%  
277 3% 30%  
278 4% 27%  
279 2% 23%  
280 3% 21%  
281 2% 18%  
282 2% 15%  
283 2% 13%  
284 2% 11%  
285 2% 9%  
286 2% 7%  
287 0.8% 5%  
288 1.2% 5%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.4% 1.3%  
294 0.1% 0.9%  
295 0.2% 0.8%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.3%  
250 0.3% 99.1%  
251 0.4% 98.8%  
252 0.4% 98%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 0.6% 97%  
255 0.9% 97%  
256 1.0% 96%  
257 2% 95%  
258 1.4% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 2% 90%  
261 3% 88%  
262 2% 85%  
263 4% 82%  
264 3% 79%  
265 4% 76%  
266 2% 72%  
267 5% 69%  
268 4% 65%  
269 4% 60%  
270 3% 56%  
271 5% 53% Median
272 4% 48%  
273 6% 44%  
274 4% 38%  
275 3% 34%  
276 4% 31%  
277 4% 28%  
278 4% 24%  
279 2% 20%  
280 3% 18%  
281 2% 15%  
282 2% 13%  
283 2% 10%  
284 1.4% 9%  
285 1.0% 7%  
286 2% 6%  
287 0.8% 4%  
288 1.0% 4%  
289 0.3% 3%  
290 0.7% 2%  
291 0.3% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.3%  
293 0.2% 1.0%  
294 0.2% 0.7%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.4%  
148 0.3% 99.2%  
149 0.4% 98.9%  
150 0.8% 98.5%  
151 0.7% 98%  
152 0.9% 97%  
153 1.2% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 2% 93%  
156 2% 92%  
157 3% 90%  
158 3% 87%  
159 3% 84%  
160 4% 81%  
161 3% 77%  
162 4% 74%  
163 4% 70%  
164 5% 66%  
165 5% 61%  
166 6% 56% Median
167 5% 50%  
168 5% 45%  
169 6% 40%  
170 4% 34%  
171 3% 30%  
172 4% 27%  
173 3% 22%  
174 3% 20%  
175 3% 16%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 10%  
178 2% 8%  
179 1.4% 7%  
180 1.2% 5%  
181 0.9% 4%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.3%  
186 0.2% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.3% 99.4%  
141 0.5% 99.1%  
142 0.6% 98.6%  
143 0.8% 98%  
144 0.9% 97%  
145 1.2% 96%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 92%  
149 3% 90%  
150 3% 87%  
151 3% 85%  
152 5% 81%  
153 4% 77%  
154 4% 73%  
155 5% 70%  
156 5% 65%  
157 5% 60%  
158 7% 55% Median
159 5% 48%  
160 5% 43%  
161 5% 39%  
162 5% 33%  
163 4% 29%  
164 4% 25%  
165 3% 21%  
166 3% 18%  
167 3% 15%  
168 2% 12%  
169 2% 10%  
170 2% 8%  
171 2% 6%  
172 1.0% 5%  
173 0.9% 4%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.1%  
178 0.2% 0.8%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations