Opinion Poll by Kantar, 19 December 2019–8 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.7–23.2% 20.4–23.6% 20.1–23.9% 19.5–24.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.6–23.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.0–16.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.0–16.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 156–173 153–177 151–181 147–185
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 150–168 147–170 145–172 140–178
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 104 98–114 96–115 94–117 90–121
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 97–113 96–117 93–117 92–121
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 62–74 61–77 59–78 56–82
Die Linke 69 68 62–74 60–76 58–78 56–81
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–44 32–46 31–46 30–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.8% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 98.9%  
149 0.4% 98.7%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.8% 98%  
152 1.4% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 0.9% 94%  
155 2% 93%  
156 5% 91%  
157 2% 86%  
158 1.5% 84%  
159 3% 83%  
160 4% 80%  
161 4% 75%  
162 2% 71%  
163 2% 69%  
164 8% 67%  
165 14% 58% Median
166 3% 44%  
167 2% 42%  
168 3% 39%  
169 13% 37%  
170 5% 24%  
171 3% 18%  
172 3% 15%  
173 4% 12%  
174 1.0% 8%  
175 0.7% 7%  
176 0.4% 6%  
177 2% 6%  
178 0.6% 4%  
179 0.4% 3%  
180 0.2% 3%  
181 1.0% 3%  
182 1.0% 2%  
183 0.2% 0.8%  
184 0% 0.6%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.2% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.2% 99.6%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.2% 99.2%  
143 0.5% 99.0%  
144 0.3% 98%  
145 2% 98%  
146 0.5% 96%  
147 1.1% 96%  
148 0.8% 95%  
149 3% 94%  
150 2% 91%  
151 3% 89%  
152 1.0% 86%  
153 12% 85%  
154 1.0% 73%  
155 5% 72%  
156 1.3% 67%  
157 8% 66%  
158 3% 58%  
159 5% 55% Median
160 8% 50%  
161 7% 41%  
162 2% 35%  
163 5% 33%  
164 9% 27%  
165 3% 18%  
166 1.4% 15%  
167 3% 14%  
168 2% 10%  
169 1.0% 9%  
170 4% 8%  
171 0.5% 4%  
172 2% 4%  
173 0.2% 2%  
174 0.8% 2%  
175 0.3% 1.1%  
176 0.3% 0.9%  
177 0% 0.6%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0% 0.4%  
180 0.3% 0.4%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 0.8% 99.1%  
93 0.7% 98%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 94%  
98 6% 92%  
99 0.5% 86%  
100 7% 86%  
101 2% 78%  
102 13% 76%  
103 3% 63%  
104 15% 61% Median
105 7% 46%  
106 3% 40%  
107 4% 36%  
108 5% 33%  
109 4% 27%  
110 2% 23%  
111 4% 21%  
112 1.0% 18%  
113 6% 17%  
114 1.3% 10%  
115 5% 9%  
116 0.5% 4%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.5% 2%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.7% 1.2%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.5%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0.2% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.7%  
91 0.1% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 99.5%  
93 3% 99.1%  
94 1.0% 96% Last Result
95 0.3% 95%  
96 2% 95%  
97 4% 93%  
98 1.1% 89%  
99 1.0% 88%  
100 2% 87%  
101 19% 85%  
102 3% 66%  
103 1.1% 63%  
104 4% 62%  
105 9% 58% Median
106 2% 48%  
107 5% 46%  
108 3% 41%  
109 21% 39%  
110 2% 18%  
111 0.4% 16%  
112 3% 15%  
113 5% 12%  
114 0.3% 7%  
115 0.6% 7%  
116 1.0% 6%  
117 4% 5%  
118 0.1% 1.5%  
119 0.1% 1.4%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.5% 0.9%  
122 0% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.2% 0.2%  
126 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 99.1%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.2% 97%  
61 4% 96%  
62 5% 91%  
63 6% 86%  
64 15% 80%  
65 6% 65%  
66 3% 59%  
67 6% 56%  
68 13% 50% Median
69 9% 37%  
70 5% 28%  
71 6% 23%  
72 2% 17%  
73 3% 15%  
74 2% 12%  
75 2% 10%  
76 1.0% 8%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.3% 2% Last Result
81 0.3% 1.2%  
82 0.6% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.6%  
57 1.1% 99.4%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 3% 91%  
63 12% 89%  
64 3% 77%  
65 11% 73%  
66 5% 62%  
67 6% 57%  
68 5% 51% Median
69 5% 46% Last Result
70 5% 42%  
71 9% 36%  
72 12% 28%  
73 4% 16%  
74 4% 12%  
75 1.4% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.6% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.8%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 3% 97%  
33 6% 94%  
34 3% 88%  
35 4% 85%  
36 9% 81%  
37 6% 72%  
38 12% 66%  
39 16% 54% Median
40 5% 39%  
41 6% 34%  
42 6% 28%  
43 3% 22%  
44 9% 19%  
45 4% 10%  
46 3% 5% Last Result
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 469 100% 457–478 456–481 453–483 446–486
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 430 100% 421–441 417–444 413–447 408–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 376 99.6% 366–387 362–390 361–394 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 377 99.7% 366–387 363–390 359–393 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 363 87% 353–373 348–376 345–380 341–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.3% 322–343 319–346 316–350 310–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.4% 322–344 317–346 314–347 309–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 310 0% 298–318 296–323 292–327 288–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 309 0% 298–320 295–323 292–327 289–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 271 0% 262–283 257–286 254–288 250–293
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 254–275 251–278 248–281 242–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 164–182 162–185 159–188 156–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 164–183 161–186 160–187 155–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0.1% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.2% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.6%  
446 0.5% 99.5%  
447 0.2% 99.1%  
448 0.3% 98.8%  
449 0.1% 98.5%  
450 0.2% 98%  
451 0.4% 98%  
452 0.1% 98%  
453 2% 98%  
454 0.5% 96%  
455 0.3% 95%  
456 2% 95%  
457 4% 93%  
458 0.7% 90%  
459 3% 89%  
460 5% 86%  
461 1.2% 80%  
462 1.2% 79%  
463 5% 78%  
464 2% 73%  
465 4% 71%  
466 7% 67% Last Result
467 0.9% 61% Median
468 2% 60%  
469 12% 58%  
470 7% 45%  
471 2% 38%  
472 11% 36%  
473 3% 25%  
474 1.2% 22%  
475 4% 20%  
476 4% 16%  
477 0.6% 12%  
478 2% 12%  
479 3% 10%  
480 0.3% 7%  
481 2% 6%  
482 2% 5%  
483 0.5% 3%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 1.2% 2%  
486 0.2% 0.6%  
487 0.1% 0.5%  
488 0.1% 0.4%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0.1% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0.3% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.3% 99.5%  
410 0.1% 99.2%  
411 0.4% 99.0%  
412 0.3% 98.6%  
413 1.0% 98%  
414 0.8% 97%  
415 1.1% 97%  
416 0.4% 96%  
417 1.1% 95%  
418 1.2% 94%  
419 2% 93%  
420 0.9% 91%  
421 2% 90%  
422 3% 89%  
423 4% 86%  
424 5% 82%  
425 3% 77%  
426 3% 74%  
427 9% 71%  
428 2% 62%  
429 3% 60%  
430 8% 58%  
431 4% 50% Median
432 9% 45%  
433 2% 36%  
434 1.1% 34%  
435 10% 33%  
436 2% 23%  
437 2% 21%  
438 4% 19%  
439 2% 15%  
440 3% 13%  
441 1.5% 10%  
442 2% 9%  
443 0.6% 7%  
444 3% 7%  
445 0.2% 4%  
446 0.7% 3%  
447 0.3% 3%  
448 1.1% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.2%  
450 0.4% 0.9%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0.7% 99.4%  
358 0.4% 98.6%  
359 0.4% 98%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.6% 98%  
362 3% 97%  
363 1.0% 94%  
364 1.1% 93%  
365 1.1% 92%  
366 1.4% 90%  
367 2% 89%  
368 2% 87%  
369 0.8% 85%  
370 5% 84%  
371 5% 79%  
372 2% 74%  
373 10% 73%  
374 4% 63%  
375 2% 59%  
376 9% 57% Median
377 3% 48%  
378 5% 44%  
379 2% 39%  
380 4% 37%  
381 3% 34%  
382 6% 31%  
383 4% 25%  
384 4% 20%  
385 3% 17%  
386 3% 13%  
387 2% 11%  
388 1.4% 9%  
389 1.4% 7%  
390 1.1% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 0.8% 5%  
393 0.7% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.7% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.1%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.3% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.7% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 98.9%  
358 1.0% 98.7%  
359 0.3% 98%  
360 1.1% 97%  
361 0.2% 96%  
362 0.8% 96%  
363 0.9% 95%  
364 1.4% 94%  
365 3% 93%  
366 1.0% 90%  
367 0.8% 89%  
368 1.4% 88%  
369 4% 87%  
370 3% 82%  
371 3% 80%  
372 3% 77%  
373 12% 74%  
374 2% 62%  
375 6% 60%  
376 4% 54%  
377 3% 51% Median
378 3% 47%  
379 3% 45%  
380 8% 41%  
381 7% 33%  
382 1.4% 26%  
383 2% 24%  
384 3% 22%  
385 0.7% 20%  
386 6% 19%  
387 4% 13%  
388 2% 9%  
389 0.9% 7%  
390 1.1% 6%  
391 1.4% 5%  
392 0.9% 4%  
393 0.4% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.2% 1.2%  
398 0.2% 1.1%  
399 0.6% 0.9%  
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.4% 99.6%  
342 0.9% 99.2%  
343 0.4% 98%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.2% 98%  
346 1.1% 97%  
347 0.5% 96%  
348 2% 96%  
349 1.2% 94%  
350 2% 93%  
351 0.4% 91%  
352 0.5% 91%  
353 1.3% 90%  
354 2% 89%  
355 6% 87% Majority
356 5% 82%  
357 0.5% 76%  
358 0.6% 76%  
359 1.3% 75%  
360 2% 74%  
361 9% 72%  
362 12% 63%  
363 4% 51% Median
364 3% 47%  
365 1.3% 44%  
366 2% 43%  
367 14% 41%  
368 9% 27%  
369 2% 18%  
370 3% 16%  
371 1.0% 13%  
372 0.8% 12%  
373 2% 11%  
374 2% 10%  
375 2% 8%  
376 2% 6%  
377 0.7% 4%  
378 0.2% 3%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.4% 3%  
381 1.3% 2%  
382 0.6% 1.0%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0.6% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.1%  
312 0.2% 98.9%  
313 0.3% 98.8%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.9% 97%  
318 1.4% 96%  
319 1.1% 95%  
320 0.9% 94%  
321 2% 93%  
322 4% 91%  
323 6% 87%  
324 0.7% 81%  
325 3% 80%  
326 2% 78%  
327 1.4% 76%  
328 7% 74%  
329 8% 67%  
330 3% 59%  
331 3% 55% Median
332 3% 53%  
333 4% 49%  
334 6% 46%  
335 2% 40%  
336 12% 38%  
337 3% 26%  
338 3% 23%  
339 3% 20%  
340 4% 18%  
341 1.4% 13%  
342 0.8% 12%  
343 1.0% 11%  
344 3% 10%  
345 1.4% 7%  
346 0.9% 6%  
347 0.8% 5%  
348 0.2% 4%  
349 1.1% 4%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 1.0% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.3%  
353 0.7% 1.1%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.3% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.5% 99.3%  
312 0.2% 98.8%  
313 1.0% 98.7%  
314 2% 98%  
315 0.3% 96%  
316 0.6% 96%  
317 0.1% 95%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 0.3% 95%  
320 0.6% 94%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 0.9% 90%  
324 3% 89%  
325 2% 86%  
326 4% 83%  
327 7% 80%  
328 17% 73%  
329 5% 56%  
330 6% 51%  
331 3% 45% Median
332 2% 42%  
333 3% 40%  
334 9% 36%  
335 0.9% 27%  
336 0.6% 27%  
337 2% 26%  
338 0.5% 24%  
339 2% 23%  
340 1.3% 21%  
341 2% 20%  
342 4% 18%  
343 4% 14%  
344 3% 10%  
345 2% 7%  
346 2% 6%  
347 1.4% 4%  
348 0.9% 2%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.6% 1.2%  
351 0% 0.6%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.7%  
288 0% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.8% 99.2%  
292 1.0% 98%  
293 0.5% 97%  
294 0.4% 97%  
295 1.2% 96%  
296 3% 95%  
297 0.5% 92%  
298 3% 92%  
299 2% 89%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 84%  
302 2% 80%  
303 0.8% 78%  
304 2% 78%  
305 4% 76%  
306 2% 71%  
307 1.4% 70%  
308 0.7% 68%  
309 14% 68% Median
310 7% 54%  
311 2% 48%  
312 10% 46%  
313 3% 35%  
314 11% 32%  
315 0.9% 21%  
316 3% 20%  
317 5% 17%  
318 2% 12%  
319 2% 10%  
320 0.3% 7%  
321 1.4% 7%  
322 0.4% 6%  
323 0.6% 5%  
324 0.1% 5%  
325 1.4% 4%  
326 0.2% 3%  
327 1.0% 3%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.2% 1.5%  
330 0.3% 1.3%  
331 0.1% 1.0%  
332 0.7% 0.9%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.3% 99.5%  
290 0.7% 99.2%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 1.0% 98%  
293 1.1% 97%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 1.0% 96%  
296 0.4% 95%  
297 2% 94%  
298 5% 92%  
299 0.7% 88%  
300 2% 87%  
301 0.9% 85%  
302 1.2% 84%  
303 3% 83%  
304 4% 80%  
305 10% 77%  
306 4% 67%  
307 6% 63%  
308 3% 57% Median
309 6% 55%  
310 3% 49%  
311 1.3% 46%  
312 11% 45%  
313 10% 33%  
314 1.3% 23%  
315 3% 22%  
316 1.1% 19%  
317 2% 18%  
318 2% 16%  
319 1.2% 14%  
320 4% 13%  
321 0.5% 9%  
322 3% 8%  
323 0.7% 5%  
324 0.7% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.6% 3%  
327 2% 3%  
328 0.1% 1.0%  
329 0.1% 0.9%  
330 0.3% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.2% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.2% 99.3%  
253 1.0% 99.1%  
254 1.1% 98%  
255 0.9% 97%  
256 0.7% 96%  
257 0.9% 95%  
258 0.4% 95%  
259 1.5% 94%  
260 0.3% 93%  
261 1.4% 92%  
262 3% 91%  
263 3% 88%  
264 4% 85%  
265 2% 81%  
266 2% 79%  
267 3% 76%  
268 5% 73%  
269 5% 68%  
270 2% 63%  
271 13% 61%  
272 11% 48% Median
273 3% 38%  
274 5% 34%  
275 2% 30%  
276 3% 28%  
277 5% 25%  
278 3% 20%  
279 1.3% 17%  
280 2% 15%  
281 2% 13%  
282 0.7% 11%  
283 2% 11%  
284 0.9% 9%  
285 2% 8%  
286 3% 6%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.5% 2%  
290 0.6% 2%  
291 0.4% 1.1%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.2% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0.1% 100%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.2% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.2% 99.3%  
245 0.2% 99.1%  
246 0.2% 99.0%  
247 1.0% 98.8%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 1.3% 97%  
251 2% 96%  
252 0.3% 94%  
253 2% 94%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 89%  
256 4% 87%  
257 6% 83%  
258 9% 78%  
259 2% 69%  
260 1.2% 67%  
261 3% 66%  
262 1.4% 63%  
263 2% 62% Median
264 9% 59%  
265 6% 51%  
266 13% 45%  
267 0.6% 31%  
268 2% 31%  
269 5% 29%  
270 2% 24%  
271 3% 22%  
272 3% 18%  
273 2% 16%  
274 3% 13%  
275 2% 11%  
276 2% 9%  
277 0.9% 7%  
278 1.0% 6%  
279 0.7% 5%  
280 0.7% 4%  
281 1.4% 4%  
282 1.1% 2%  
283 0.1% 1.1%  
284 0.6% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.3%  
158 1.1% 99.0%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.5% 97%  
161 0.6% 97%  
162 4% 96%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 88%  
166 0.7% 85%  
167 3% 84%  
168 12% 81%  
169 5% 69%  
170 11% 64%  
171 1.4% 53%  
172 4% 52% Median
173 3% 47%  
174 6% 45%  
175 10% 38%  
176 3% 29%  
177 1.1% 26%  
178 3% 24%  
179 3% 22%  
180 6% 19%  
181 2% 13%  
182 1.1% 11%  
183 0.9% 10%  
184 2% 9%  
185 2% 7%  
186 1.5% 5%  
187 0.6% 3%  
188 0.2% 3%  
189 0.2% 2%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.6% 1.1%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.2% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.5%  
156 0.3% 99.4%  
157 0.2% 99.1%  
158 0.4% 99.0%  
159 0.7% 98.6%  
160 2% 98%  
161 1.2% 96%  
162 0.4% 95%  
163 2% 94%  
164 4% 93%  
165 10% 89%  
166 1.1% 79%  
167 3% 78%  
168 0.7% 75%  
169 5% 74%  
170 8% 69%  
171 3% 61%  
172 2% 58% Median
173 5% 56%  
174 6% 50%  
175 7% 45%  
176 11% 38%  
177 3% 27%  
178 1.1% 24%  
179 2% 23%  
180 4% 21%  
181 3% 17%  
182 2% 14%  
183 3% 12%  
184 0.4% 8%  
185 3% 8%  
186 2% 5%  
187 1.1% 3%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.3% 2%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.0%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.3% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations