Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–10 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.1% 21.2–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.6–24.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.1% 11.8–14.4% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 174 166–184 163–186 161–189 156–194
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 159–178 157–181 155–182 151–188
Alternative für Deutschland 94 100 93–107 91–110 89–112 86–115
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 92 85–99 83–101 81–103 78–107
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 63–75 61–77 60–79 57–82
Die Linke 69 62 55–68 54–69 53–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 43 39–49 37–50 36–51 34–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.2% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 0.4% 99.5%  
158 0.3% 99.1%  
159 0.6% 98.9%  
160 0.7% 98%  
161 1.0% 98%  
162 1.2% 96%  
163 1.3% 95%  
164 2% 94%  
165 1.5% 92%  
166 4% 90%  
167 2% 86%  
168 6% 84%  
169 2% 78%  
170 5% 76%  
171 4% 71%  
172 6% 67%  
173 4% 61%  
174 8% 57% Median
175 5% 49%  
176 5% 43%  
177 5% 39%  
178 3% 33%  
179 6% 30%  
180 3% 24%  
181 5% 21%  
182 2% 16%  
183 4% 14%  
184 2% 10%  
185 2% 9%  
186 1.4% 6%  
187 1.1% 5%  
188 1.2% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.8% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.4%  
192 0.4% 1.1%  
193 0.1% 0.7%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.5%  
152 0.5% 99.2%  
153 0.4% 98.7%  
154 0.4% 98%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 1.2% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 3% 89%  
161 3% 86%  
162 3% 84%  
163 4% 81%  
164 5% 77%  
165 4% 72%  
166 7% 68%  
167 7% 61%  
168 6% 54% Median
169 4% 48%  
170 3% 44%  
171 5% 41%  
172 7% 36%  
173 4% 29%  
174 5% 24%  
175 4% 20%  
176 4% 16%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 9%  
180 2% 7%  
181 1.1% 5%  
182 1.4% 4%  
183 0.8% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.3%  
186 0.2% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.7%  
86 0.3% 99.5%  
87 0.5% 99.2%  
88 1.0% 98.7%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 2% 92%  
93 4% 90%  
94 5% 86% Last Result
95 4% 81%  
96 6% 77%  
97 5% 70%  
98 8% 66%  
99 7% 58%  
100 6% 51% Median
101 7% 45%  
102 6% 39%  
103 5% 33%  
104 5% 28%  
105 4% 22%  
106 4% 18%  
107 4% 14%  
108 2% 10%  
109 2% 8%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.2% 4%  
112 0.9% 3%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.1%  
115 0.2% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.5% 99.4%  
80 0.7% 98.9%  
81 0.9% 98%  
82 1.4% 97%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 94%  
85 4% 91%  
86 4% 87%  
87 5% 83%  
88 5% 78%  
89 6% 73%  
90 6% 67%  
91 7% 61%  
92 6% 53% Median
93 8% 47%  
94 8% 39%  
95 6% 31%  
96 5% 25%  
97 4% 20%  
98 4% 17%  
99 3% 13%  
100 2% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.5%  
106 0.3% 1.0%  
107 0.3% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 99.2%  
59 0.9% 98.6%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 5% 87%  
65 6% 82%  
66 9% 76%  
67 7% 68%  
68 7% 60%  
69 8% 53% Median
70 7% 45%  
71 7% 38%  
72 7% 31%  
73 5% 24%  
74 5% 19%  
75 4% 14%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.6% 2% Last Result
81 0.6% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.6% 99.4%  
52 1.0% 98.8%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 6% 85%  
58 7% 78%  
59 7% 71%  
60 6% 64%  
61 8% 58%  
62 8% 50% Median
63 6% 43%  
64 9% 36%  
65 6% 27%  
66 6% 21%  
67 5% 15%  
68 4% 10%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 0.7% 99.3%  
36 2% 98.5%  
37 3% 97%  
38 3% 94%  
39 6% 91%  
40 7% 85%  
41 8% 78%  
42 10% 69%  
43 11% 59% Median
44 12% 49%  
45 8% 37%  
46 7% 29% Last Result
47 7% 22%  
48 5% 15%  
49 3% 10%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 468–488 466–492 463–494 458–498
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 445–466 442–469 440–471 435–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 387 100% 376–398 373–401 371–403 365–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 387 100% 376–397 373–400 370–403 365–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 379 99.8% 368–390 365–393 363–395 358–401
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.1% 319–340 316–343 313–346 308–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0% 311–333 308–336 306–338 301–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 317 0% 307–328 304–331 302–334 297–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 310 0% 299–321 296–324 294–326 289–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 287 0% 277–298 274–300 271–303 266–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 260 0% 250–271 247–274 245–277 240–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 152–170 150–173 147–175 143–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 153 0% 145–162 142–165 140–167 136–172

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.2% 99.7%  
458 0.1% 99.6%  
459 0.2% 99.4%  
460 0.3% 99.2%  
461 0.4% 98.9%  
462 0.6% 98.5%  
463 0.8% 98%  
464 1.0% 97%  
465 1.1% 96%  
466 1.5% 95% Last Result
467 2% 94%  
468 2% 92%  
469 3% 90%  
470 2% 87%  
471 3% 85%  
472 2% 81%  
473 4% 79%  
474 4% 74%  
475 4% 70%  
476 6% 66%  
477 5% 60% Median
478 5% 55%  
479 5% 50%  
480 4% 45%  
481 6% 42%  
482 6% 35%  
483 3% 30%  
484 4% 26%  
485 4% 23%  
486 3% 19%  
487 3% 15%  
488 2% 12%  
489 2% 10%  
490 2% 8%  
491 1.2% 6%  
492 1.2% 5%  
493 1.2% 4%  
494 0.6% 3%  
495 0.5% 2%  
496 0.4% 1.5%  
497 0.4% 1.1%  
498 0.2% 0.7%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.2% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.6%  
435 0.2% 99.5%  
436 0.2% 99.3%  
437 0.3% 99.1%  
438 0.5% 98.8%  
439 0.7% 98%  
440 0.9% 98%  
441 0.9% 97%  
442 1.1% 96%  
443 2% 95%  
444 2% 93%  
445 2% 91%  
446 2% 89%  
447 3% 87%  
448 3% 84%  
449 3% 81%  
450 3% 78%  
451 5% 75%  
452 3% 70%  
453 7% 67%  
454 5% 60% Median
455 4% 55%  
456 5% 51%  
457 4% 45%  
458 6% 41%  
459 3% 35%  
460 4% 32%  
461 5% 27%  
462 3% 23%  
463 3% 20%  
464 4% 17%  
465 3% 13%  
466 2% 11%  
467 2% 8%  
468 1.0% 6%  
469 2% 5%  
470 0.9% 4%  
471 0.8% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.3% 1.2%  
475 0.2% 0.8%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.2% 99.5%  
367 0.2% 99.3%  
368 0.4% 99.1%  
369 0.4% 98.7%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.9% 98%  
372 1.0% 97%  
373 2% 96%  
374 0.9% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 3% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 2% 87%  
379 3% 85%  
380 4% 82%  
381 3% 78%  
382 5% 74%  
383 4% 69%  
384 5% 66%  
385 4% 61%  
386 5% 57% Median
387 4% 52%  
388 6% 49%  
389 4% 43%  
390 5% 39%  
391 5% 34%  
392 4% 29%  
393 4% 25%  
394 3% 21%  
395 3% 18%  
396 3% 16%  
397 2% 13%  
398 2% 10%  
399 1.4% 9%  
400 2% 7%  
401 1.1% 5%  
402 0.7% 4%  
403 0.8% 3%  
404 0.8% 2%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.3%  
407 0.3% 0.9%  
408 0.2% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.4% 99.3%  
368 0.4% 98.9%  
369 0.5% 98.5%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 1.4% 97%  
373 2% 95%  
374 1.5% 94%  
375 1.5% 92%  
376 2% 91%  
377 3% 89%  
378 3% 86%  
379 4% 83%  
380 2% 80%  
381 4% 77%  
382 5% 73%  
383 4% 69%  
384 5% 65%  
385 3% 59% Median
386 4% 56%  
387 7% 52%  
388 5% 46%  
389 4% 40%  
390 3% 36%  
391 5% 33%  
392 5% 29%  
393 5% 24%  
394 4% 19%  
395 2% 16%  
396 3% 14%  
397 2% 11%  
398 1.1% 9%  
399 2% 8%  
400 0.9% 6%  
401 0.8% 5%  
402 1.1% 4%  
403 0.6% 3%  
404 0.8% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.4%  
406 0.4% 1.2%  
407 0.2% 0.8%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.2% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.5%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.0%  
361 0.5% 98.7%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.8% 98%  
364 0.9% 97%  
365 1.0% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 1.4% 93%  
368 3% 91%  
369 2% 89%  
370 3% 87%  
371 3% 84%  
372 3% 81%  
373 3% 78%  
374 4% 76%  
375 3% 72%  
376 6% 69%  
377 3% 63%  
378 6% 59% Median
379 6% 54%  
380 5% 47%  
381 4% 42%  
382 5% 38%  
383 3% 33%  
384 5% 30%  
385 3% 24%  
386 3% 21%  
387 3% 18%  
388 2% 15%  
389 2% 13%  
390 2% 10%  
391 1.1% 8%  
392 2% 7%  
393 1.2% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.8% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.4% 1.4%  
399 0.3% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.2% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.4%  
310 0.3% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 98.9%  
312 0.6% 98.6%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 0.9% 97%  
315 1.3% 96%  
316 1.1% 95%  
317 1.1% 94%  
318 2% 93%  
319 2% 91%  
320 2% 88%  
321 3% 86%  
322 2% 83%  
323 4% 81%  
324 4% 77%  
325 4% 73%  
326 6% 69%  
327 3% 63%  
328 5% 60%  
329 3% 54% Median
330 6% 52%  
331 6% 46%  
332 4% 40%  
333 4% 36%  
334 5% 32%  
335 3% 27%  
336 3% 24%  
337 4% 21%  
338 3% 17%  
339 3% 14%  
340 2% 11%  
341 2% 10%  
342 2% 8%  
343 1.2% 6%  
344 0.8% 5%  
345 0.9% 4%  
346 0.6% 3%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.3%  
350 0.3% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.5%  
302 0.3% 99.4%  
303 0.4% 99.1%  
304 0.3% 98.7%  
305 0.8% 98%  
306 0.8% 98%  
307 0.7% 97%  
308 1.1% 96%  
309 2% 95%  
310 1.4% 93%  
311 2% 91%  
312 2% 90%  
313 3% 87%  
314 3% 84%  
315 3% 82%  
316 4% 79%  
317 4% 75%  
318 5% 71%  
319 5% 66%  
320 4% 61%  
321 6% 57%  
322 4% 51% Median
323 5% 48%  
324 4% 43%  
325 5% 39%  
326 4% 34%  
327 5% 31%  
328 3% 26%  
329 4% 22%  
330 3% 18%  
331 2% 15%  
332 2% 13%  
333 3% 11%  
334 2% 9%  
335 0.9% 7%  
336 2% 6%  
337 1.0% 4%  
338 0.9% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.4% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.3% 99.3%  
299 0.2% 99.0%  
300 0.5% 98.8%  
301 0.5% 98%  
302 0.8% 98%  
303 1.4% 97%  
304 0.8% 96%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 3% 93%  
307 1.3% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 3% 87%  
310 2% 84%  
311 4% 82%  
312 3% 78%  
313 3% 75%  
314 8% 72%  
315 3% 65%  
316 3% 61%  
317 9% 59% Median
318 3% 49%  
319 4% 46%  
320 6% 42%  
321 3% 37%  
322 5% 34%  
323 4% 29%  
324 3% 25%  
325 4% 22%  
326 3% 19%  
327 2% 15%  
328 4% 13%  
329 1.4% 9%  
330 1.3% 8%  
331 2% 7%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 1.1% 3%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.4%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.6%  
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.2%  
292 0.8% 98.9%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 1.1% 98%  
295 0.6% 97%  
296 1.4% 96%  
297 1.5% 95%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 92%  
300 2% 89%  
301 3% 87%  
302 3% 85%  
303 3% 82%  
304 4% 79%  
305 4% 74%  
306 4% 71%  
307 4% 67%  
308 6% 63%  
309 3% 57% Median
310 8% 54%  
311 4% 47%  
312 5% 43%  
313 3% 37%  
314 5% 34%  
315 5% 29%  
316 4% 24%  
317 4% 21%  
318 2% 17%  
319 2% 15%  
320 2% 13%  
321 2% 11%  
322 2% 9%  
323 1.3% 7%  
324 1.1% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.9% 3%  
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.3%  
330 0.3% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.3% 99.4%  
268 0.3% 99.1%  
269 0.4% 98.8%  
270 0.7% 98%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 0.8% 97%  
273 0.9% 96%  
274 2% 95%  
275 1.5% 94%  
276 2% 92%  
277 4% 91%  
278 3% 87%  
279 3% 84%  
280 3% 82%  
281 4% 79%  
282 5% 76%  
283 4% 70%  
284 3% 66%  
285 5% 63%  
286 6% 58% Median
287 5% 52%  
288 4% 47%  
289 3% 43%  
290 7% 40%  
291 5% 33%  
292 4% 29%  
293 2% 25%  
294 5% 23%  
295 3% 18%  
296 3% 15%  
297 2% 12%  
298 2% 10%  
299 3% 9%  
300 0.9% 6%  
301 0.8% 5%  
302 1.2% 4%  
303 0.7% 3%  
304 0.6% 2%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.4% 1.3%  
307 0.3% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.6%  
309 0.2% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.4%  
242 0.3% 99.2%  
243 0.5% 98.8%  
244 0.7% 98%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 1.1% 97%  
247 1.1% 96%  
248 2% 95%  
249 2% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 2% 89%  
252 3% 87%  
253 4% 85%  
254 3% 81%  
255 6% 78%  
256 3% 72%  
257 4% 69%  
258 4% 65%  
259 4% 61%  
260 8% 56% Median
261 4% 48%  
262 3% 44%  
263 4% 41%  
264 5% 37%  
265 6% 32%  
266 4% 26%  
267 3% 22%  
268 2% 19%  
269 3% 17%  
270 4% 14%  
271 2% 10%  
272 2% 9%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 1.3% 6%  
275 0.9% 4%  
276 0.8% 3%  
277 0.9% 3%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.4% 1.4%  
280 0.2% 1.0%  
281 0.3% 0.8%  
282 0.2% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.3% 99.5%  
145 0.5% 99.2%  
146 0.4% 98.7%  
147 0.9% 98%  
148 1.0% 97%  
149 1.4% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 3% 91%  
153 3% 89%  
154 3% 86%  
155 4% 82%  
156 4% 78%  
157 5% 75%  
158 6% 70%  
159 6% 64%  
160 6% 58%  
161 5% 52% Median
162 7% 47%  
163 4% 40%  
164 7% 37%  
165 3% 30%  
166 5% 26%  
167 4% 21%  
168 3% 17%  
169 3% 14%  
170 2% 11%  
171 2% 9%  
172 1.5% 7%  
173 2% 5%  
174 0.9% 4%  
175 0.8% 3%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.2%  
179 0.2% 0.7%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.3% 99.4%  
138 0.4% 99.1%  
139 0.7% 98.7%  
140 0.9% 98%  
141 1.2% 97%  
142 1.3% 96%  
143 2% 95%  
144 2% 93%  
145 4% 91%  
146 3% 87%  
147 4% 84%  
148 3% 80%  
149 5% 77%  
150 5% 72%  
151 6% 67%  
152 6% 60%  
153 5% 54%  
154 4% 49% Median
155 7% 45%  
156 5% 38%  
157 5% 33%  
158 5% 28%  
159 4% 23%  
160 4% 19%  
161 3% 16%  
162 3% 12%  
163 2% 9%  
164 2% 7%  
165 1.3% 6%  
166 1.2% 4%  
167 1.1% 3%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.6% 2%  
170 0.3% 1.0%  
171 0.2% 0.8%  
172 0.2% 0.6%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations