Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 10–13 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 7.9–11.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 150–166 147–169 145–171 140–175
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 149–167 147–169 145–171 141–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 112 105–120 102–121 101–124 98–127
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 92–102 87–104 84–105 80–107
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 70 65–76 64–78 62–80 59–84
Die Linke 69 67 61–73 60–75 59–77 57–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 44–49 41–50 38–51 35–57

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.5% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.3%  
142 0.4% 99.2%  
143 0.2% 98.8%  
144 0.8% 98.6%  
145 0.7% 98%  
146 2% 97%  
147 0.6% 95%  
148 4% 95%  
149 0.3% 91%  
150 3% 90%  
151 3% 87%  
152 7% 85%  
153 5% 78%  
154 8% 73%  
155 2% 65%  
156 9% 64%  
157 0.5% 55%  
158 10% 54% Median
159 4% 44%  
160 8% 40%  
161 3% 32%  
162 4% 29%  
163 4% 25%  
164 2% 21%  
165 6% 18%  
166 3% 12%  
167 2% 9%  
168 2% 7%  
169 1.0% 6%  
170 0.7% 5%  
171 2% 4%  
172 0.5% 2%  
173 0.5% 1.4%  
174 0.2% 0.9%  
175 0.3% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.3% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.3%  
143 0.6% 99.0%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 1.2% 97%  
147 2% 96%  
148 1.1% 95%  
149 7% 93%  
150 1.1% 86%  
151 7% 85%  
152 2% 78%  
153 3% 76%  
154 6% 73%  
155 4% 67%  
156 4% 63%  
157 4% 59%  
158 7% 55% Median
159 6% 48%  
160 6% 41%  
161 7% 35%  
162 3% 28%  
163 4% 26%  
164 2% 22%  
165 3% 19%  
166 4% 16%  
167 4% 12%  
168 2% 8%  
169 1.5% 5%  
170 0.7% 4%  
171 1.5% 3%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.1% 1.1%  
174 0.3% 1.0%  
175 0.1% 0.7%  
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.7%  
99 0.6% 99.4%  
100 0.5% 98.8%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 2% 94%  
104 1.4% 92%  
105 4% 91%  
106 7% 87%  
107 5% 80%  
108 5% 75%  
109 4% 69%  
110 11% 65%  
111 3% 54%  
112 5% 50% Median
113 7% 45%  
114 5% 38%  
115 3% 33%  
116 6% 29%  
117 6% 24%  
118 3% 17%  
119 2% 14%  
120 3% 12%  
121 5% 9%  
122 0.5% 4%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.5% 98.5%  
84 0.7% 98%  
85 1.4% 97%  
86 0.8% 96%  
87 0.4% 95%  
88 0.6% 95%  
89 0.6% 94%  
90 0.4% 94%  
91 2% 93%  
92 4% 91%  
93 3% 87%  
94 8% 85%  
95 6% 76%  
96 13% 70%  
97 7% 57%  
98 9% 50% Median
99 12% 41%  
100 6% 29%  
101 8% 22%  
102 4% 14%  
103 3% 10%  
104 1.5% 6%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.9% 1.3%  
108 0.1% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.1%  
61 0.2% 99.1%  
62 4% 98.9%  
63 0.1% 95%  
64 5% 95%  
65 5% 90%  
66 0.2% 85%  
67 19% 85%  
68 0.6% 66%  
69 0.6% 65%  
70 21% 65% Median
71 0.2% 44%  
72 12% 44%  
73 11% 31%  
74 0.9% 20%  
75 9% 19%  
76 0.7% 10%  
77 1.1% 9%  
78 4% 8%  
79 0.3% 4%  
80 1.0% 3% Last Result
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.1% 2%  
83 0.9% 1.4%  
84 0% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.1% 99.5%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 4% 97%  
61 4% 93%  
62 3% 89%  
63 3% 85%  
64 3% 83%  
65 8% 79%  
66 15% 72%  
67 12% 57% Median
68 4% 45%  
69 4% 41% Last Result
70 5% 37%  
71 11% 32%  
72 7% 21%  
73 7% 14%  
74 1.4% 8%  
75 1.5% 6%  
76 1.0% 5%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.2% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.9% 99.3%  
37 0.5% 98%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 0.8% 97%  
40 0.9% 97%  
41 0.7% 96%  
42 0.9% 95%  
43 2% 94%  
44 8% 92%  
45 15% 84%  
46 21% 69% Last Result, Median
47 21% 48%  
48 16% 27%  
49 6% 12%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.5% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.4%  
54 0.1% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 459 100% 450–468 447–470 442–472 436–476
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 423–442 420–445 418–448 412–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 377–396 375–399 372–402 368–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 371 98% 362–382 358–383 356–387 351–392
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 83% 353–373 350–375 347–376 342–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 326 0% 316–334 313–338 310–340 304–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 313–332 310–334 307–337 301–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 316 0% 307–326 304–329 302–329 297–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 292–310 289–314 284–314 277–318
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 275 0% 265–287 261–287 260–288 257–294
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 246–264 243–267 239–269 234–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 159–175 157–178 154–180 150–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 165 0% 157–172 154–174 151–176 145–180

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.1% 99.6%  
436 0.1% 99.5%  
437 0.3% 99.4%  
438 0.3% 99.1%  
439 0.4% 98.8%  
440 0.1% 98%  
441 0.5% 98%  
442 0.5% 98%  
443 0.3% 97%  
444 0.8% 97%  
445 0.4% 96%  
446 0.8% 96%  
447 1.1% 95%  
448 0.7% 94%  
449 1.1% 93%  
450 3% 92%  
451 4% 90%  
452 1.3% 85%  
453 2% 84%  
454 9% 83%  
455 3% 74%  
456 4% 71%  
457 7% 67%  
458 5% 60%  
459 6% 54%  
460 5% 48% Median
461 5% 44%  
462 7% 39%  
463 7% 32%  
464 4% 26%  
465 3% 21%  
466 4% 19% Last Result
467 2% 14%  
468 3% 12%  
469 2% 9%  
470 2% 6%  
471 2% 5%  
472 0.8% 3%  
473 0.4% 2%  
474 0.8% 2%  
475 0.2% 0.9%  
476 0.3% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.2% 99.9%  
412 0.2% 99.6%  
413 0.1% 99.4%  
414 0.2% 99.4%  
415 0.1% 99.2%  
416 0.9% 99.1%  
417 0.2% 98%  
418 1.1% 98%  
419 0.9% 97%  
420 2% 96%  
421 0.7% 94%  
422 1.2% 93%  
423 5% 92%  
424 0.3% 86%  
425 4% 86%  
426 2% 82%  
427 10% 80%  
428 4% 71%  
429 4% 66%  
430 2% 63%  
431 3% 61%  
432 10% 58% Median
433 6% 48%  
434 4% 42%  
435 4% 38%  
436 8% 34%  
437 2% 26%  
438 2% 24%  
439 2% 22%  
440 1.3% 19%  
441 7% 18%  
442 2% 11%  
443 3% 10%  
444 1.1% 7%  
445 1.3% 5%  
446 0.3% 4%  
447 0.5% 4%  
448 2% 3%  
449 0.3% 2%  
450 0.3% 1.3%  
451 0.4% 1.0%  
452 0.2% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0.1% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.2% 99.7%  
369 0.3% 99.4%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.1% 98.8%  
372 2% 98.8%  
373 0.3% 97%  
374 2% 97%  
375 0.5% 95%  
376 2% 95%  
377 5% 93%  
378 1.2% 88%  
379 2% 87%  
380 0.9% 84%  
381 9% 84%  
382 7% 74%  
383 2% 67%  
384 6% 65%  
385 2% 59%  
386 14% 57% Median
387 2% 43%  
388 2% 41%  
389 9% 40%  
390 0.8% 31%  
391 9% 30%  
392 2% 21%  
393 2% 20%  
394 6% 17%  
395 0.4% 11%  
396 2% 11%  
397 0.6% 9%  
398 3% 9%  
399 1.4% 5%  
400 0.4% 4%  
401 0.7% 3%  
402 0.2% 3%  
403 1.0% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.4%  
405 0.2% 1.2%  
406 0.2% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0.2% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.3% 99.5%  
353 0.7% 99.2%  
354 0.3% 98.5%  
355 0.5% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 2% 97%  
358 1.1% 95%  
359 0.8% 94%  
360 0.9% 94%  
361 1.0% 93%  
362 2% 92%  
363 0.8% 89%  
364 7% 88%  
365 1.3% 81%  
366 2% 80%  
367 5% 78%  
368 12% 73%  
369 3% 61%  
370 6% 59%  
371 4% 52%  
372 7% 49% Median
373 2% 42%  
374 2% 40%  
375 5% 38%  
376 7% 33%  
377 3% 27%  
378 2% 24%  
379 4% 22%  
380 2% 18%  
381 3% 16%  
382 6% 13%  
383 2% 6%  
384 0.6% 4%  
385 0.7% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 1.2% 3%  
388 0.6% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.2% 0.5%  
394 0.2% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.2% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 0.5% 99.3%  
345 0.4% 98.8%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 1.1% 98%  
348 0.6% 97%  
349 0.4% 96%  
350 1.0% 95%  
351 1.5% 94%  
352 2% 93%  
353 6% 91%  
354 2% 85%  
355 8% 83% Majority
356 3% 76%  
357 2% 73%  
358 7% 71%  
359 2% 64%  
360 4% 62%  
361 7% 58%  
362 3% 50% Median
363 2% 47%  
364 5% 45%  
365 6% 40%  
366 6% 34%  
367 4% 29%  
368 8% 25%  
369 3% 17%  
370 1.0% 14%  
371 2% 13%  
372 1.0% 12%  
373 2% 11%  
374 3% 9%  
375 2% 6%  
376 2% 4%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.4% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0.1% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.2% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.6% 99.1%  
309 0.9% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 97%  
312 0.3% 97%  
313 4% 97%  
314 1.2% 92%  
315 0.7% 91%  
316 0.9% 90%  
317 9% 89%  
318 3% 81%  
319 0.3% 78%  
320 0.6% 78%  
321 7% 77%  
322 12% 70%  
323 0.3% 58%  
324 0.5% 58%  
325 4% 57%  
326 13% 53% Median
327 2% 40%  
328 0.4% 38%  
329 6% 38%  
330 8% 31%  
331 3% 24%  
332 0.2% 21%  
333 5% 20%  
334 5% 15%  
335 2% 10%  
336 0.2% 8%  
337 0.2% 8%  
338 4% 8%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.3% 3%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.7% 2%  
343 1.0% 2%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.4%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.2% 99.1%  
305 0.3% 98.8%  
306 1.0% 98.6%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.7% 97%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 1.4% 96%  
311 3% 95%  
312 0.6% 91%  
313 2% 91%  
314 0.4% 89%  
315 6% 89%  
316 2% 83%  
317 2% 80%  
318 9% 79%  
319 0.8% 70%  
320 9% 69%  
321 2% 60%  
322 2% 59%  
323 14% 57% Median
324 2% 43%  
325 6% 41%  
326 2% 35%  
327 7% 33%  
328 9% 26%  
329 0.9% 16%  
330 2% 16%  
331 1.2% 13%  
332 5% 12%  
333 2% 7%  
334 0.5% 5%  
335 2% 5%  
336 0.3% 3%  
337 2% 3%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0.3% 1.2%  
340 0.3% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.1% 99.3%  
299 0.4% 99.2%  
300 0.4% 98.8%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 1.4% 98%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 2% 96%  
305 0.6% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 3% 92%  
308 1.1% 89%  
309 8% 88%  
310 1.3% 80%  
311 3% 78%  
312 9% 75%  
313 0.3% 67%  
314 13% 67%  
315 2% 54%  
316 7% 52% Median
317 4% 45%  
318 2% 41%  
319 8% 39%  
320 2% 31%  
321 9% 29%  
322 3% 20%  
323 3% 17%  
324 3% 14%  
325 0.7% 11%  
326 2% 10%  
327 1.1% 8%  
328 1.5% 7%  
329 3% 5%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.3%  
334 0.4% 1.0%  
335 0.1% 0.6%  
336 0.2% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.3% 99.6%  
278 0.4% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.0%  
280 0.2% 98.8%  
281 0.3% 98.7%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 1.1% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 1.0% 94%  
291 2% 93%  
292 6% 92%  
293 0.8% 86%  
294 2% 85%  
295 3% 84%  
296 7% 80%  
297 3% 73%  
298 7% 70%  
299 2% 63%  
300 4% 62%  
301 4% 58%  
302 8% 54% Median
303 8% 45%  
304 4% 38%  
305 2% 33%  
306 7% 31%  
307 2% 24%  
308 5% 22%  
309 7% 18%  
310 1.2% 10%  
311 2% 9%  
312 1.3% 7%  
313 0.8% 6%  
314 3% 5%  
315 0.7% 2%  
316 0.4% 1.3%  
317 0.2% 0.9%  
318 0.3% 0.7%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.2% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0.1% 100%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 1.3% 99.4%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 3% 97%  
262 3% 95%  
263 0.5% 92%  
264 0.3% 91%  
265 2% 91%  
266 0.5% 88%  
267 0.3% 88%  
268 7% 88%  
269 9% 81%  
270 7% 72%  
271 1.4% 65%  
272 5% 64%  
273 6% 59%  
274 1.1% 53% Median
275 3% 52%  
276 14% 49%  
277 4% 35%  
278 0.9% 31%  
279 5% 30%  
280 6% 25%  
281 0.8% 19%  
282 0.4% 18%  
283 3% 18%  
284 2% 15%  
285 1.1% 13%  
286 1.2% 12%  
287 7% 11%  
288 2% 4%  
289 0.2% 2%  
290 0.3% 2%  
291 0.4% 1.2%  
292 0.1% 0.9%  
293 0% 0.8%  
294 0.2% 0.7%  
295 0.1% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.4% 99.4%  
236 0.5% 99.0%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0.8% 98%  
240 0.6% 97%  
241 0.7% 96%  
242 0.8% 96%  
243 2% 95%  
244 0.8% 93%  
245 1.4% 92%  
246 5% 91%  
247 2% 86%  
248 0.8% 84%  
249 5% 83%  
250 7% 79%  
251 5% 72%  
252 4% 67%  
253 6% 63%  
254 2% 57%  
255 5% 55%  
256 7% 50% Median
257 8% 43%  
258 0.9% 35%  
259 5% 34%  
260 6% 30%  
261 7% 24%  
262 3% 17%  
263 4% 14%  
264 2% 10%  
265 2% 8%  
266 1.0% 6%  
267 2% 5%  
268 0.3% 3%  
269 0.7% 3%  
270 0.6% 2%  
271 0.5% 1.4%  
272 0.2% 0.8%  
273 0.3% 0.7%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.6%  
151 0.2% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.8% 99.0%  
154 0.6% 98%  
155 0.4% 97%  
156 1.0% 97%  
157 1.2% 96%  
158 3% 95%  
159 3% 91%  
160 1.2% 89%  
161 6% 87%  
162 3% 82%  
163 5% 79%  
164 3% 74%  
165 5% 71%  
166 6% 66%  
167 4% 60%  
168 17% 56% Median
169 3% 39%  
170 4% 36%  
171 8% 31%  
172 4% 23%  
173 3% 19%  
174 4% 16%  
175 3% 13%  
176 2% 10%  
177 1.4% 7%  
178 2% 6%  
179 0.6% 4%  
180 0.6% 3%  
181 0.3% 2%  
182 1.1% 2%  
183 0.2% 1.0%  
184 0.3% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.2%  
148 0.2% 99.1%  
149 0.3% 98.8%  
150 0.8% 98.5%  
151 0.3% 98%  
152 0.5% 97%  
153 0.5% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 0.7% 95%  
156 0.9% 94%  
157 4% 93%  
158 2% 89%  
159 4% 87%  
160 3% 83%  
161 8% 80%  
162 2% 72%  
163 10% 70%  
164 4% 60%  
165 11% 56% Median
166 5% 45%  
167 13% 41%  
168 3% 27%  
169 3% 24%  
170 4% 21%  
171 6% 17%  
172 3% 11%  
173 1.4% 8%  
174 2% 6%  
175 2% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.2%  
179 0.4% 1.0%  
180 0.4% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations