Opinion Poll by Kantar, 9–15 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.6–22.6% 19.4–23.0% 18.8–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.6% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 150–167 149–170 146–172 142–177
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 156 153–166 153–167 146–168 143–174
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 105–121 103–123 102–124 98–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 107 100–113 96–114 95–115 93–120
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 62–74 60–76 59–78 57–81
Die Linke 69 67 63–75 61–76 60–77 56–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 34–40 33–41 32–41 30–45

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.6%  
143 0.3% 99.4%  
144 0.5% 99.0%  
145 0.7% 98.6%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 1.0% 97%  
148 0.9% 96%  
149 2% 95%  
150 5% 93%  
151 2% 88%  
152 4% 87%  
153 2% 82%  
154 2% 81%  
155 9% 79%  
156 3% 70%  
157 6% 67%  
158 5% 60%  
159 7% 56% Median
160 3% 48%  
161 11% 45%  
162 2% 35%  
163 3% 33%  
164 11% 30%  
165 4% 19%  
166 3% 14%  
167 1.5% 11%  
168 0.7% 10%  
169 1.4% 9%  
170 4% 7%  
171 0.7% 4%  
172 1.1% 3%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.2% 2%  
175 0.6% 1.4%  
176 0.2% 0.8%  
177 0.3% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.3% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.4% 99.4%  
145 1.0% 99.0%  
146 1.1% 98%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0.1% 97%  
149 0.2% 97%  
150 0.2% 97%  
151 0.2% 96%  
152 1.0% 96%  
153 6% 95%  
154 16% 89%  
155 15% 73%  
156 10% 58% Median
157 10% 48%  
158 4% 38%  
159 0.3% 34%  
160 0.1% 34%  
161 0% 34%  
162 0.3% 34%  
163 0.7% 33%  
164 4% 33%  
165 12% 29%  
166 8% 16%  
167 5% 9%  
168 2% 4%  
169 1.0% 2%  
170 0.2% 0.7%  
171 0% 0.5%  
172 0% 0.5%  
173 0% 0.5%  
174 0% 0.5%  
175 0% 0.5%  
176 0% 0.4%  
177 0.3% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0% 99.5%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.9% 99.3%  
102 1.0% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 5% 92%  
106 3% 87%  
107 3% 85%  
108 0.4% 82%  
109 0.6% 82%  
110 3% 81%  
111 14% 78%  
112 13% 64%  
113 11% 52% Median
114 8% 40%  
115 5% 32%  
116 4% 27%  
117 0.6% 23%  
118 0.4% 22%  
119 2% 22%  
120 7% 20%  
121 3% 13%  
122 4% 10%  
123 2% 5%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.4% 1.5%  
126 0.1% 1.1%  
127 0% 1.0%  
128 0.1% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.9%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.7%  
92 0% 99.7%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 1.2% 99.4% Last Result
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 1.5% 94%  
98 0.4% 93%  
99 0.6% 92%  
100 7% 92%  
101 14% 85%  
102 10% 71%  
103 3% 61%  
104 2% 59%  
105 1.2% 56%  
106 2% 55%  
107 19% 53% Median
108 10% 35%  
109 10% 24%  
110 1.1% 14%  
111 0.3% 13%  
112 1.2% 13%  
113 4% 12%  
114 4% 8%  
115 3% 4%  
116 0.7% 2%  
117 0.1% 1.1%  
118 0.1% 1.0%  
119 0.2% 0.9%  
120 0.4% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 4% 89%  
64 4% 85%  
65 5% 81%  
66 8% 76%  
67 11% 68%  
68 19% 57% Median
69 5% 38%  
70 4% 34%  
71 6% 30%  
72 8% 23%  
73 4% 15%  
74 2% 12%  
75 3% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.2% 4%  
78 0.8% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.2% 99.4%  
58 0.7% 99.1%  
59 0.6% 98%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 7% 91%  
64 11% 84%  
65 10% 73%  
66 12% 64%  
67 6% 52% Median
68 5% 46%  
69 4% 41% Last Result
70 4% 37%  
71 7% 33%  
72 4% 26%  
73 7% 22%  
74 3% 15%  
75 6% 12%  
76 1.4% 6%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.2%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 4% 97%  
34 11% 92%  
35 11% 81%  
36 10% 70%  
37 19% 60% Median
38 21% 41%  
39 7% 20%  
40 7% 13%  
41 3% 6%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.4% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 468 100% 458–477 455–479 452–481 449–486
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 412–432 410–435 407–437 402–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 378 99.8% 367–387 364–390 361–392 357–397
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 369 98% 361–378 358–380 355–382 352–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 52% 344–365 341–368 340–369 334–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 340 2% 331–348 329–351 327–354 321–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 341 1.1% 333–350 328–352 326–353 323–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 310 0% 299–318 295–322 294–323 288–329
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 301 0% 293–310 290–312 289–313 283–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 263–280 261–285 258–286 254–288
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 264 0% 254–273 252–277 249–278 245–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 172–189 170–194 168–196 162–198
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 173–190 170–192 166–196 165–198

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.1% 99.6%  
449 0.1% 99.5%  
450 0.2% 99.4%  
451 0.5% 99.2%  
452 1.2% 98.7%  
453 0.3% 97%  
454 0.9% 97%  
455 4% 96%  
456 0.8% 92%  
457 0.5% 91%  
458 5% 91%  
459 3% 86%  
460 1.4% 82%  
461 3% 81%  
462 6% 78%  
463 2% 72%  
464 3% 70%  
465 5% 67% Median
466 3% 62% Last Result
467 2% 59%  
468 13% 57%  
469 3% 44%  
470 2% 41%  
471 5% 39%  
472 9% 33%  
473 0.5% 25%  
474 2% 24%  
475 6% 22%  
476 5% 16%  
477 2% 11%  
478 3% 9%  
479 2% 6%  
480 0.6% 4%  
481 1.0% 3%  
482 0.8% 2%  
483 0.2% 1.3%  
484 0.2% 1.1%  
485 0.4% 1.0%  
486 0% 0.5%  
487 0% 0.5%  
488 0.1% 0.5%  
489 0.2% 0.4%  
490 0% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.3% 99.8%  
403 0.2% 99.5%  
404 0.2% 99.2%  
405 0.7% 99.0%  
406 0.4% 98%  
407 1.0% 98%  
408 0.4% 97%  
409 0.4% 97%  
410 3% 96%  
411 1.2% 93%  
412 2% 91%  
413 3% 89%  
414 1.0% 87%  
415 5% 86%  
416 1.2% 80%  
417 4% 79%  
418 9% 75%  
419 2% 66%  
420 4% 64% Median
421 3% 60%  
422 7% 57%  
423 1.3% 50%  
424 3% 49%  
425 10% 46%  
426 4% 35%  
427 5% 32%  
428 5% 27%  
429 2% 22%  
430 3% 20%  
431 7% 17%  
432 0.8% 10%  
433 2% 10%  
434 2% 8%  
435 1.2% 6%  
436 0.6% 4%  
437 2% 4%  
438 0.3% 2%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.6% 1.4%  
441 0.2% 0.8%  
442 0.3% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0% 99.7%  
357 0.3% 99.7%  
358 0.7% 99.4%  
359 0.1% 98.7%  
360 0.9% 98.6%  
361 0.9% 98%  
362 0.3% 97%  
363 0.6% 97%  
364 2% 96%  
365 0.4% 94%  
366 3% 94%  
367 1.4% 91%  
368 2% 90%  
369 6% 88%  
370 3% 82%  
371 1.2% 78%  
372 8% 77%  
373 4% 69%  
374 0.8% 65%  
375 4% 65%  
376 3% 61%  
377 2% 58% Median
378 10% 56%  
379 4% 46%  
380 3% 42%  
381 12% 38%  
382 3% 26%  
383 1.5% 23%  
384 8% 22%  
385 0.6% 14%  
386 2% 14%  
387 3% 12%  
388 1.0% 9%  
389 0.9% 8%  
390 4% 7%  
391 0.5% 4%  
392 0.9% 3%  
393 0.8% 2%  
394 0.1% 1.3%  
395 0.3% 1.2%  
396 0.3% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0.1% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.6% 99.4%  
354 1.0% 98.9%  
355 1.0% 98% Majority
356 0.7% 97%  
357 0.6% 96%  
358 1.5% 96%  
359 3% 94%  
360 0.7% 91%  
361 1.3% 90%  
362 3% 89%  
363 4% 86%  
364 4% 82%  
365 6% 78%  
366 5% 71%  
367 9% 66%  
368 3% 57%  
369 5% 54%  
370 3% 49%  
371 10% 47% Median
372 3% 37%  
373 4% 34%  
374 5% 30%  
375 2% 25%  
376 2% 23%  
377 9% 21%  
378 3% 12%  
379 3% 8%  
380 2% 5%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.6% 2%  
386 0.5% 1.3%  
387 0.1% 0.8%  
388 0.4% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.4% 99.7%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.2% 99.0%  
337 0.9% 98.9%  
338 0.3% 98%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 2% 98%  
341 1.3% 96%  
342 1.1% 94%  
343 1.1% 93%  
344 5% 92%  
345 0.7% 87%  
346 4% 86%  
347 3% 82%  
348 4% 79%  
349 1.2% 75%  
350 3% 74%  
351 8% 71%  
352 4% 63% Median
353 3% 59%  
354 3% 56%  
355 5% 52% Majority
356 3% 47%  
357 10% 44%  
358 4% 34%  
359 5% 30%  
360 2% 26%  
361 5% 24%  
362 1.3% 19%  
363 7% 18%  
364 0.6% 11%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 0.8% 6%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 2% 4%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.2%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.3% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.4% 99.7%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.5% 99.2%  
324 0.6% 98.7%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0.2% 98%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.4% 97%  
329 2% 97%  
330 3% 95%  
331 3% 92%  
332 9% 88%  
333 2% 79%  
334 2% 77%  
335 5% 75%  
336 4% 70% Median
337 3% 66%  
338 10% 63%  
339 3% 53%  
340 5% 51%  
341 3% 46%  
342 9% 43%  
343 5% 34%  
344 6% 29%  
345 4% 22%  
346 4% 18%  
347 3% 14%  
348 1.3% 11%  
349 0.7% 10%  
350 3% 9%  
351 1.5% 6%  
352 0.6% 4%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 1.0% 3%  
355 1.0% 2% Majority
356 0.6% 1.1%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0.1% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0% 99.6%  
322 0.1% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 99.5%  
324 0.3% 99.3%  
325 0.8% 99.0%  
326 1.4% 98%  
327 2% 97%  
328 1.3% 95%  
329 0.3% 94%  
330 0.1% 93%  
331 0.3% 93%  
332 3% 93%  
333 5% 90%  
334 12% 85%  
335 7% 73%  
336 8% 66%  
337 2% 58% Median
338 0.5% 56%  
339 0.1% 55%  
340 0.8% 55%  
341 9% 54%  
342 6% 45%  
343 11% 39%  
344 5% 28%  
345 9% 23%  
346 2% 14%  
347 0.2% 12%  
348 0.4% 12%  
349 0.9% 11%  
350 2% 10%  
351 3% 8%  
352 2% 6%  
353 2% 4%  
354 0.7% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.1% Majority
356 0.1% 0.8%  
357 0% 0.7%  
358 0.2% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.2% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.5% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 98.8%  
292 0.3% 98.7%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 1.1% 98%  
295 2% 97%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 3% 94%  
298 0.7% 91%  
299 3% 91%  
300 2% 88%  
301 6% 86%  
302 1.0% 80%  
303 3% 79%  
304 3% 76%  
305 2% 73%  
306 5% 71%  
307 6% 66%  
308 5% 60%  
309 2% 55% Median
310 6% 53%  
311 5% 47%  
312 5% 41%  
313 10% 36%  
314 3% 26%  
315 2% 23%  
316 2% 21%  
317 6% 19%  
318 4% 13%  
319 1.0% 10%  
320 2% 9%  
321 0.6% 7%  
322 2% 6%  
323 2% 4%  
324 0.7% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.4%  
326 0.2% 1.3%  
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 0.8%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.3% 99.9%  
283 0.3% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.1% 99.1%  
286 0.3% 99.0%  
287 0.3% 98.7%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 2% 98%  
290 3% 96%  
291 0.3% 94%  
292 3% 94%  
293 6% 91%  
294 0.5% 85%  
295 2% 84%  
296 8% 82%  
297 4% 75%  
298 3% 70%  
299 10% 67%  
300 5% 58%  
301 3% 53%  
302 3% 50%  
303 7% 47% Median
304 7% 40%  
305 5% 33%  
306 6% 27%  
307 1.3% 21%  
308 0.6% 20%  
309 9% 19%  
310 3% 10%  
311 0.6% 8%  
312 2% 7%  
313 3% 5%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.1% 1.2%  
318 0.5% 1.2%  
319 0.1% 0.6%  
320 0.3% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0.2% 99.3%  
257 1.1% 99.1%  
258 0.7% 98%  
259 0.5% 97%  
260 1.3% 97%  
261 0.5% 96%  
262 3% 95%  
263 4% 92%  
264 0.4% 88%  
265 2% 88%  
266 13% 85%  
267 5% 72%  
268 3% 67%  
269 2% 64% Median
270 6% 62%  
271 11% 56%  
272 1.3% 45%  
273 2% 44%  
274 9% 42%  
275 5% 33%  
276 0.9% 29%  
277 11% 28%  
278 5% 17%  
279 0.6% 12%  
280 2% 11%  
281 0.6% 9%  
282 2% 8%  
283 0.9% 7%  
284 0.2% 6%  
285 0.8% 5%  
286 3% 5%  
287 0.9% 1.5%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0% 0.4%  
291 0.2% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.4% 99.6%  
246 0.9% 99.2%  
247 0.3% 98%  
248 0.4% 98%  
249 0.7% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 1.0% 96%  
252 2% 95%  
253 2% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 89%  
256 2% 88%  
257 3% 85%  
258 8% 83%  
259 1.3% 75%  
260 5% 74%  
261 5% 69%  
262 2% 65%  
263 6% 62%  
264 7% 56% Median
265 4% 49%  
266 8% 44%  
267 2% 36%  
268 5% 34%  
269 2% 29%  
270 10% 27%  
271 2% 17%  
272 3% 15%  
273 2% 12%  
274 3% 10%  
275 0.9% 7%  
276 0.5% 6%  
277 2% 5%  
278 0.8% 3%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.7% 2%  
281 0.6% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.0%  
283 0.3% 0.8%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0.1% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.2% 99.9%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.2% 99.5%  
164 0.1% 99.3%  
165 0.1% 99.2%  
166 0.2% 99.1%  
167 0.1% 99.0%  
168 2% 98.9%  
169 0.9% 97%  
170 4% 96%  
171 2% 92%  
172 2% 90%  
173 0.7% 88%  
174 0.4% 87%  
175 2% 87%  
176 2% 85%  
177 7% 83%  
178 10% 76%  
179 10% 66%  
180 13% 55%  
181 0.1% 43% Median
182 4% 42%  
183 0.9% 39%  
184 0.5% 38%  
185 7% 37%  
186 2% 30%  
187 10% 28%  
188 5% 19%  
189 5% 13%  
190 2% 8%  
191 0.4% 6%  
192 0.4% 6%  
193 0.1% 5%  
194 1.2% 5%  
195 1.1% 4%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 1.5% 2%  
198 0.1% 0.6%  
199 0.3% 0.5%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.2% 99.7%  
165 1.0% 99.5%  
166 1.3% 98%  
167 0.3% 97%  
168 0.8% 97%  
169 0.8% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 0.9% 94%  
172 0.4% 93%  
173 3% 92%  
174 5% 90%  
175 0.7% 85%  
176 6% 84%  
177 16% 79%  
178 7% 63%  
179 3% 56%  
180 1.0% 53% Median
181 7% 52%  
182 3% 45%  
183 0.9% 42%  
184 8% 41%  
185 8% 33%  
186 4% 25%  
187 2% 22%  
188 3% 20%  
189 7% 17%  
190 4% 10%  
191 0.4% 6%  
192 0.6% 5%  
193 0.9% 5%  
194 0.9% 4%  
195 0.2% 3%  
196 0.4% 3%  
197 0.8% 2%  
198 1.1% 2%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.2% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations