Opinion Poll by Forsa, 13–17 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.3–24.4% 21.0–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.3% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 164–182 161–185 159–187 155–191
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 166 158–176 155–179 153–181 149–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 99 92–107 89–109 88–110 85–115
Alternative für Deutschland 94 99 91–106 89–108 88–110 84–114
Die Linke 69 69 62–75 61–77 59–78 56–82
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–67 53–69 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 43 38–48 37–49 36–51 34–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.5%  
156 0.4% 99.3%  
157 0.5% 98.9%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.9% 98%  
160 2% 97%  
161 1.3% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 87%  
166 4% 83%  
167 4% 80%  
168 5% 76%  
169 4% 71%  
170 4% 67%  
171 5% 62%  
172 6% 58%  
173 6% 52% Median
174 6% 46%  
175 5% 40%  
176 4% 35%  
177 4% 31%  
178 5% 27%  
179 4% 23%  
180 4% 19%  
181 3% 15%  
182 3% 11%  
183 2% 8%  
184 1.5% 6%  
185 1.4% 5%  
186 0.8% 4%  
187 0.8% 3%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.5%  
190 0.2% 1.0%  
191 0.3% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.6%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.3% 99.1%  
152 0.7% 98.7%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 95%  
157 2% 93%  
158 4% 91%  
159 3% 87%  
160 5% 85%  
161 4% 80%  
162 5% 76%  
163 6% 71%  
164 6% 65%  
165 4% 59%  
166 7% 55% Median
167 5% 49%  
168 5% 44%  
169 5% 39%  
170 4% 34%  
171 4% 30%  
172 4% 26%  
173 3% 22%  
174 4% 19%  
175 2% 15%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 7%  
179 2% 5%  
180 1.0% 4%  
181 0.8% 3%  
182 0.8% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.3%  
184 0.4% 1.0%  
185 0.2% 0.6%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.5%  
86 0.6% 99.3%  
87 1.2% 98.7%  
88 1.3% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 2% 95%  
91 2% 92%  
92 2% 90%  
93 6% 88%  
94 8% 83%  
95 7% 75%  
96 5% 68%  
97 6% 63%  
98 5% 57%  
99 3% 52% Median
100 8% 49%  
101 10% 41%  
102 9% 31%  
103 3% 22%  
104 3% 19%  
105 2% 15%  
106 2% 13%  
107 2% 11%  
108 3% 8%  
109 3% 6%  
110 0.9% 3%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.4%  
113 0.3% 1.0%  
114 0.1% 0.7%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4%  
86 0.5% 99.1%  
87 0.8% 98.6%  
88 1.5% 98%  
89 1.5% 96%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 93%  
92 3% 89%  
93 4% 86%  
94 5% 82% Last Result
95 7% 77%  
96 5% 70%  
97 7% 65%  
98 7% 58%  
99 7% 51% Median
100 7% 44%  
101 6% 37%  
102 6% 32%  
103 5% 26%  
104 4% 21%  
105 4% 16%  
106 3% 13%  
107 3% 9%  
108 2% 7%  
109 1.5% 5%  
110 1.1% 3%  
111 0.9% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.4%  
113 0.3% 0.9%  
114 0.2% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 5% 89%  
64 5% 85%  
65 7% 79%  
66 7% 72%  
67 8% 65%  
68 7% 57%  
69 9% 51% Last Result, Median
70 8% 41%  
71 7% 33%  
72 7% 27%  
73 4% 20%  
74 4% 16%  
75 3% 11%  
76 3% 8%  
77 1.4% 5%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 99.4%  
51 0.7% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 2% 94%  
55 5% 92%  
56 5% 87%  
57 7% 82%  
58 9% 76%  
59 7% 67%  
60 13% 59% Median
61 6% 46%  
62 8% 40%  
63 8% 32%  
64 3% 25%  
65 6% 21%  
66 3% 15%  
67 4% 12%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.7% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 1.0% 98.9%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 93%  
39 6% 87%  
40 7% 81%  
41 12% 74%  
42 11% 63%  
43 8% 52% Median
44 9% 43%  
45 10% 34%  
46 7% 24% Last Result
47 4% 17%  
48 4% 12%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.0% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 471–491 468–494 466–496 461–501
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 443 100% 432–454 429–457 428–458 422–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 383 100% 372–393 369–396 366–399 361–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 375 99.5% 364–386 361–388 359–391 355–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 375 99.3% 364–386 361–389 359–391 353–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 334 0.5% 323–345 321–348 318–350 313–354
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 326 0% 316–337 312–340 310–343 305–347
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 315 0% 304–325 301–328 298–331 293–335
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 315 0% 303–325 301–328 298–330 293–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 276 0% 265–287 263–290 261–292 256–297
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 255–276 253–279 250–281 245–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 158–176 156–179 153–181 149–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 151–169 149–171 145–173 142–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0.2% 99.7%  
461 0.2% 99.5%  
462 0.2% 99.3%  
463 0.5% 99.1%  
464 0.6% 98.7%  
465 0.4% 98%  
466 1.0% 98% Last Result
467 0.8% 97%  
468 1.5% 96%  
469 1.4% 94%  
470 2% 93%  
471 1.3% 91%  
472 3% 90%  
473 3% 86%  
474 4% 84%  
475 4% 80%  
476 3% 76%  
477 6% 73%  
478 4% 67%  
479 5% 63%  
480 4% 58%  
481 6% 54% Median
482 4% 48%  
483 4% 44%  
484 7% 40%  
485 4% 33%  
486 4% 29%  
487 4% 25%  
488 4% 21%  
489 3% 17%  
490 3% 14%  
491 3% 11%  
492 1.5% 9%  
493 2% 7%  
494 1.3% 5%  
495 0.9% 4%  
496 0.7% 3%  
497 0.8% 2%  
498 0.4% 2%  
499 0.4% 1.2%  
500 0.2% 0.9%  
501 0.3% 0.6%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0.1% 0.2%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.2% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.6%  
423 0.1% 99.5%  
424 0.6% 99.4%  
425 0.5% 98.8%  
426 0.2% 98%  
427 0.5% 98%  
428 2% 98%  
429 1.1% 96%  
430 0.3% 95%  
431 2% 94%  
432 4% 93%  
433 1.3% 89%  
434 0.9% 87%  
435 5% 87%  
436 5% 82%  
437 0.9% 77%  
438 2% 76%  
439 8% 74%  
440 5% 66%  
441 1.2% 61%  
442 4% 60% Median
443 10% 55%  
444 4% 45%  
445 1.2% 42%  
446 8% 40%  
447 7% 33%  
448 2% 26%  
449 1.1% 24%  
450 6% 23%  
451 4% 17%  
452 0.8% 13%  
453 2% 12%  
454 3% 11%  
455 2% 7%  
456 0.2% 6%  
457 1.2% 5%  
458 2% 4%  
459 0.5% 2%  
460 0.1% 2%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.6% 1.2%  
463 0.1% 0.6%  
464 0.1% 0.5%  
465 0.2% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.4%  
363 0.4% 99.2%  
364 0.4% 98.8%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 1.0% 97%  
368 0.9% 96%  
369 1.5% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 2% 92%  
372 2% 90%  
373 2% 88%  
374 3% 86%  
375 3% 83%  
376 4% 80%  
377 5% 76%  
378 5% 72%  
379 3% 67%  
380 4% 64%  
381 5% 59%  
382 4% 54% Median
383 5% 50%  
384 5% 45%  
385 5% 39%  
386 4% 35%  
387 3% 30%  
388 4% 27%  
389 4% 23%  
390 3% 19%  
391 2% 16%  
392 3% 14%  
393 2% 11%  
394 2% 9%  
395 2% 7%  
396 1.2% 6%  
397 1.1% 4%  
398 0.6% 3%  
399 0.7% 3%  
400 0.6% 2%  
401 0.3% 1.3%  
402 0.2% 1.0%  
403 0.2% 0.7%  
404 0.2% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.2% 99.5% Majority
356 0.3% 99.3%  
357 0.4% 99.1%  
358 0.7% 98.7%  
359 0.8% 98%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 2% 96%  
362 1.2% 95%  
363 3% 93%  
364 3% 91%  
365 2% 88%  
366 5% 86%  
367 3% 81%  
368 3% 78%  
369 4% 75%  
370 3% 71%  
371 5% 68%  
372 3% 63%  
373 5% 61%  
374 3% 56%  
375 3% 53% Median
376 4% 49%  
377 3% 46%  
378 4% 42%  
379 5% 39%  
380 4% 34%  
381 5% 30%  
382 4% 25%  
383 3% 20%  
384 3% 18%  
385 3% 14%  
386 2% 11%  
387 3% 9%  
388 1.3% 6%  
389 1.2% 5%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.7% 3%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.5%  
394 0.5% 1.2%  
395 0.2% 0.8%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.3% 99.3% Majority
356 0.3% 99.0%  
357 0.5% 98.7%  
358 0.6% 98%  
359 0.8% 98%  
360 1.2% 97%  
361 0.9% 96%  
362 2% 95%  
363 2% 93%  
364 2% 91%  
365 2% 89%  
366 3% 87%  
367 4% 84%  
368 3% 81%  
369 3% 78%  
370 4% 75%  
371 4% 71%  
372 5% 67%  
373 5% 62%  
374 4% 57%  
375 4% 53% Median
376 5% 49%  
377 6% 44%  
378 4% 38%  
379 4% 34%  
380 4% 30%  
381 3% 26%  
382 4% 23%  
383 3% 19%  
384 3% 16%  
385 2% 13%  
386 2% 11%  
387 2% 9%  
388 2% 7%  
389 1.2% 5%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.9% 3%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.4% 1.3%  
395 0.3% 1.0%  
396 0.2% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.5%  
315 0.5% 99.2%  
316 0.3% 98.8%  
317 0.6% 98.5%  
318 0.7% 98%  
319 0.9% 97%  
320 1.2% 96%  
321 1.3% 95%  
322 3% 94%  
323 2% 91%  
324 3% 89%  
325 3% 86%  
326 3% 82%  
327 4% 80%  
328 5% 75%  
329 4% 70%  
330 5% 66%  
331 4% 61%  
332 3% 58%  
333 4% 54%  
334 3% 51% Median
335 3% 47%  
336 5% 44%  
337 3% 39%  
338 5% 37%  
339 3% 32%  
340 4% 29%  
341 3% 25%  
342 3% 22%  
343 5% 19%  
344 2% 14%  
345 3% 12%  
346 3% 9%  
347 1.2% 7%  
348 2% 5%  
349 1.0% 4%  
350 0.8% 3%  
351 0.7% 2%  
352 0.4% 1.3%  
353 0.3% 0.9%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.2% 99.6%  
306 0.3% 99.5%  
307 0.4% 99.2%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 0.8% 98%  
311 1.1% 97%  
312 1.0% 96%  
313 1.5% 95%  
314 1.4% 93%  
315 2% 92%  
316 2% 90%  
317 2% 88%  
318 3% 86%  
319 4% 83%  
320 6% 79%  
321 4% 73%  
322 4% 69%  
323 5% 65%  
324 5% 60%  
325 5% 55% Median
326 4% 50%  
327 4% 46%  
328 4% 42%  
329 4% 39%  
330 3% 35%  
331 4% 32%  
332 4% 28%  
333 5% 24%  
334 4% 19%  
335 2% 15%  
336 3% 13%  
337 2% 11%  
338 2% 9%  
339 1.0% 7%  
340 1.2% 6%  
341 1.2% 5%  
342 0.9% 4%  
343 0.8% 3%  
344 0.7% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.4%  
346 0.3% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.4% 99.2%  
296 0.3% 98.8%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 1.2% 97%  
300 1.0% 96%  
301 2% 95%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 92%  
304 3% 90%  
305 1.3% 87%  
306 4% 86%  
307 2% 81%  
308 4% 80%  
309 3% 75%  
310 4% 72%  
311 5% 68%  
312 3% 63%  
313 5% 60%  
314 4% 55%  
315 6% 51% Median
316 3% 46%  
317 5% 42%  
318 5% 37%  
319 5% 33%  
320 3% 27%  
321 5% 24%  
322 3% 19%  
323 2% 16%  
324 4% 14%  
325 2% 11%  
326 2% 9%  
327 1.4% 7%  
328 2% 6%  
329 0.7% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.7% 2%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.3% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.5% 98.9%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.8% 98%  
299 0.8% 97%  
300 1.0% 96%  
301 1.3% 95%  
302 1.5% 94%  
303 3% 93%  
304 1.3% 90%  
305 3% 89%  
306 3% 86%  
307 3% 83%  
308 4% 80%  
309 4% 77%  
310 4% 73%  
311 5% 69%  
312 5% 64%  
313 3% 58%  
314 5% 55%  
315 5% 51% Median
316 4% 46%  
317 6% 42%  
318 4% 36%  
319 5% 32%  
320 4% 26%  
321 4% 23%  
322 3% 19%  
323 2% 16%  
324 3% 14%  
325 2% 11%  
326 2% 9%  
327 2% 7%  
328 2% 6%  
329 1.0% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.8% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.4% 1.4%  
334 0.3% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.2% 99.4%  
258 0.3% 99.2%  
259 0.5% 98.8%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.7% 98%  
262 1.3% 97%  
263 2% 96%  
264 2% 94%  
265 2% 92%  
266 3% 90%  
267 2% 87%  
268 4% 85%  
269 4% 81%  
270 3% 77%  
271 4% 74%  
272 4% 70%  
273 5% 66%  
274 3% 61%  
275 4% 57%  
276 5% 53% Median
277 3% 48%  
278 4% 45%  
279 4% 41%  
280 4% 37%  
281 5% 34%  
282 4% 29%  
283 4% 25%  
284 4% 21%  
285 3% 17%  
286 2% 14%  
287 3% 12%  
288 2% 9%  
289 1.1% 7%  
290 1.4% 6%  
291 1.2% 4%  
292 0.7% 3%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.3% 1.2%  
296 0.3% 0.9%  
297 0.2% 0.6%  
298 0.2% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.6%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.3%  
248 0.5% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.5%  
250 0.9% 98%  
251 0.9% 97%  
252 0.9% 96%  
253 2% 95%  
254 2% 93%  
255 2% 91%  
256 4% 89%  
257 4% 85%  
258 3% 81%  
259 4% 78%  
260 6% 74%  
261 3% 68%  
262 4% 65%  
263 4% 61%  
264 5% 57%  
265 2% 52% Median
266 4% 49%  
267 4% 45%  
268 4% 42%  
269 4% 38%  
270 4% 34%  
271 3% 30%  
272 3% 27%  
273 5% 23%  
274 3% 18%  
275 3% 15%  
276 3% 13%  
277 2% 9%  
278 2% 7%  
279 1.4% 5%  
280 1.1% 4%  
281 0.8% 3%  
282 0.5% 2%  
283 0.5% 1.5%  
284 0.3% 0.9%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.7%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.3% 99.2%  
152 0.5% 98.9%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.2% 97%  
155 1.1% 96%  
156 1.5% 95%  
157 1.5% 94%  
158 2% 92%  
159 4% 90%  
160 3% 86%  
161 4% 83%  
162 3% 79%  
163 4% 75%  
164 7% 71%  
165 6% 64%  
166 5% 59%  
167 5% 54%  
168 5% 49% Median
169 6% 43%  
170 6% 38%  
171 5% 32%  
172 4% 27%  
173 4% 23%  
174 4% 20%  
175 3% 15%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 8%  
179 1.3% 6%  
180 1.3% 5%  
181 1.0% 3%  
182 0.6% 2%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.1%  
185 0.3% 0.8%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.8%  
142 0.3% 99.7%  
143 0.4% 99.4%  
144 0.6% 98.9%  
145 0.8% 98%  
146 0.8% 97%  
147 0.6% 97%  
148 0.8% 96%  
149 1.3% 95%  
150 2% 94%  
151 3% 92%  
152 5% 89%  
153 6% 84%  
154 5% 78%  
155 6% 74%  
156 2% 67%  
157 4% 65%  
158 4% 61%  
159 6% 58% Median
160 7% 52%  
161 7% 45%  
162 7% 38%  
163 7% 31%  
164 4% 24%  
165 3% 21%  
166 2% 18%  
167 3% 16%  
168 2% 13%  
169 2% 11%  
170 2% 8%  
171 2% 6%  
172 1.3% 4%  
173 1.0% 3%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.4% 1.5%  
176 0.2% 1.1%  
177 0.3% 0.9%  
178 0.2% 0.6%  
179 0.2% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations