Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 17–20 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.5% 20.4–22.7% 20.1–23.0% 19.8–23.3% 19.3–23.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 162 153–170 152–173 149–175 145–180
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 149–166 147–169 145–171 142–176
Alternative für Deutschland 94 112 105–121 103–123 102–125 98–129
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 91–106 89–109 88–109 84–113
Die Linke 69 67 63–74 61–75 58–76 57–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 58–69 57–72 56–73 53–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 41–51 39–52 38–54 36–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.5% 99.3%  
148 0.5% 98.8%  
149 1.1% 98%  
150 0.6% 97%  
151 1.3% 97%  
152 4% 95%  
153 3% 92%  
154 4% 89%  
155 2% 84%  
156 4% 82%  
157 1.5% 78%  
158 6% 77%  
159 1.3% 71%  
160 12% 70%  
161 7% 58%  
162 11% 51% Median
163 4% 40%  
164 4% 37%  
165 3% 32%  
166 6% 29%  
167 5% 23%  
168 3% 18%  
169 4% 15%  
170 3% 12%  
171 3% 9%  
172 0.5% 6%  
173 0.9% 5%  
174 1.0% 4%  
175 0.7% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0.7% 2%  
179 0.1% 0.9%  
180 0.5% 0.8%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.5% 99.5%  
144 0.8% 99.0%  
145 1.0% 98%  
146 2% 97%  
147 0.7% 96%  
148 4% 95%  
149 2% 91%  
150 3% 89%  
151 3% 87%  
152 3% 84%  
153 4% 80%  
154 6% 76%  
155 3% 71%  
156 4% 68%  
157 5% 63%  
158 3% 58%  
159 12% 54% Median
160 4% 42%  
161 7% 39%  
162 4% 32%  
163 5% 27%  
164 3% 22%  
165 5% 19%  
166 6% 14%  
167 2% 9%  
168 1.3% 7%  
169 1.1% 6%  
170 0.5% 5%  
171 2% 4%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.2%  
175 0.2% 0.8%  
176 0.3% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.3% 99.2%  
101 1.1% 98.9%  
102 1.2% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 2% 91%  
106 3% 89%  
107 2% 86%  
108 4% 83%  
109 6% 80%  
110 10% 73%  
111 9% 63%  
112 7% 54% Median
113 7% 47%  
114 4% 40%  
115 2% 36%  
116 9% 34%  
117 4% 25%  
118 5% 21%  
119 3% 16%  
120 3% 13%  
121 1.3% 10%  
122 3% 9%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.8% 3%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.1%  
128 0.1% 0.8%  
129 0.4% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.3%  
86 0.4% 99.0%  
87 0.8% 98.6%  
88 0.6% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 4% 95%  
91 2% 91%  
92 2% 88%  
93 9% 86%  
94 7% 77%  
95 4% 70%  
96 6% 66%  
97 7% 59%  
98 6% 53% Median
99 12% 47%  
100 5% 35%  
101 2% 30%  
102 5% 28%  
103 7% 24%  
104 3% 17%  
105 4% 14%  
106 2% 10%  
107 1.1% 8%  
108 1.3% 7%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.3% 1.2%  
112 0.3% 0.9%  
113 0.4% 0.6%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 98.8%  
59 1.2% 97%  
60 0.9% 96%  
61 0.9% 95%  
62 1.1% 94%  
63 5% 93%  
64 9% 89%  
65 12% 80%  
66 15% 67%  
67 4% 52% Median
68 6% 49%  
69 1.5% 43% Last Result
70 2% 41%  
71 7% 39%  
72 15% 32%  
73 6% 18%  
74 6% 12%  
75 3% 6%  
76 0.9% 3%  
77 0.3% 2%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.1%  
55 0.4% 98.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 1.2% 96%  
58 8% 95%  
59 2% 86%  
60 5% 84%  
61 3% 80%  
62 15% 76%  
63 8% 61%  
64 6% 53% Median
65 6% 47%  
66 4% 41%  
67 15% 36%  
68 4% 21%  
69 8% 17%  
70 0.8% 9%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.8%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.6%  
37 0.6% 98.6%  
38 1.3% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 2% 93%  
41 4% 92%  
42 3% 88%  
43 8% 85%  
44 18% 77%  
45 5% 59%  
46 12% 54% Last Result, Median
47 15% 42%  
48 4% 27%  
49 9% 23%  
50 4% 14%  
51 4% 10%  
52 3% 6%  
53 0.4% 3%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 464 100% 453–474 451–476 449–478 444–483
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 431 100% 421–439 417–443 416–445 410–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 384 100% 374–394 372–398 368–400 363–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 370 97% 359–380 357–383 354–385 350–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 366 93% 355–376 353–379 350–381 345–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0% 315–335 311–337 309–341 304–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 321 0% 309–329 307–334 305–336 300–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 310–331 307–335 305–336 301–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 305 0% 295–316 293–319 290–321 285–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 274 0% 262–281 261–283 258–286 253–294
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 246–268 244–269 241–273 236–276
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 157–175 155–176 153–179 150–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 153–172 151–174 149–176 145–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
439 0% 100%  
440 0.1% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.7%  
443 0% 99.6%  
444 0.2% 99.6%  
445 0.1% 99.4%  
446 0.5% 99.3%  
447 0.3% 98.7%  
448 0.5% 98%  
449 0.8% 98%  
450 0.5% 97%  
451 2% 97%  
452 2% 94%  
453 4% 92%  
454 2% 89%  
455 0.7% 87%  
456 2% 86%  
457 3% 84%  
458 3% 82%  
459 7% 79%  
460 4% 72%  
461 5% 67%  
462 3% 62%  
463 2% 59%  
464 10% 57%  
465 7% 47% Median
466 6% 40% Last Result
467 3% 33%  
468 3% 30%  
469 5% 28%  
470 1.4% 23%  
471 3% 21%  
472 2% 18%  
473 3% 16%  
474 6% 13%  
475 0.9% 7%  
476 2% 6%  
477 1.3% 4%  
478 0.4% 3%  
479 0.4% 2%  
480 0.1% 2%  
481 0.8% 2%  
482 0.2% 0.8%  
483 0.2% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0.1% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0% 99.7%  
409 0% 99.7%  
410 0.3% 99.7%  
411 0.3% 99.3%  
412 0.1% 99.0%  
413 0.3% 99.0%  
414 0.4% 98.7%  
415 0.6% 98%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 3% 97%  
418 2% 94%  
419 0.3% 92%  
420 1.3% 92%  
421 2% 90%  
422 6% 89%  
423 4% 82%  
424 0.9% 79%  
425 4% 78%  
426 1.1% 74%  
427 5% 73%  
428 14% 68%  
429 2% 54%  
430 2% 52%  
431 4% 50% Median
432 8% 46%  
433 8% 38%  
434 6% 30%  
435 2% 24%  
436 2% 22%  
437 5% 20%  
438 3% 15%  
439 4% 13%  
440 2% 9%  
441 0.6% 7%  
442 0.6% 6%  
443 1.2% 6%  
444 2% 4%  
445 1.0% 3%  
446 0.2% 2%  
447 0.1% 1.4%  
448 0.5% 1.4%  
449 0.4% 0.9%  
450 0.2% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0.1% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.2% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.2% 99.2%  
367 0.3% 99.0%  
368 2% 98.7%  
369 0.5% 97%  
370 0.5% 97%  
371 0.9% 96%  
372 0.7% 95%  
373 2% 94%  
374 2% 92%  
375 4% 90%  
376 4% 86%  
377 4% 82%  
378 3% 78%  
379 1.5% 75%  
380 2% 73%  
381 2% 72%  
382 3% 70%  
383 9% 66%  
384 8% 58% Median
385 10% 50%  
386 4% 40%  
387 5% 36%  
388 2% 31%  
389 3% 29%  
390 2% 26%  
391 6% 24%  
392 5% 19%  
393 1.5% 13%  
394 2% 12%  
395 3% 10%  
396 0.7% 7%  
397 0.6% 6%  
398 1.4% 6%  
399 1.5% 4%  
400 0.8% 3%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.9% 2%  
403 0.1% 0.9%  
404 0.3% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.2% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.5%  
351 0% 99.4%  
352 0.4% 99.4%  
353 0.8% 99.0%  
354 2% 98%  
355 0.3% 97% Majority
356 0.4% 96%  
357 2% 96%  
358 2% 95%  
359 3% 92%  
360 0.8% 89%  
361 4% 88%  
362 3% 84%  
363 2% 81%  
364 0.8% 79%  
365 2% 78%  
366 13% 76%  
367 8% 63%  
368 2% 55%  
369 1.1% 53%  
370 3% 52% Median
371 4% 49%  
372 9% 44%  
373 6% 36%  
374 2% 30%  
375 3% 28%  
376 6% 25%  
377 3% 19%  
378 0.6% 16%  
379 5% 16%  
380 3% 10%  
381 2% 7%  
382 0.5% 6%  
383 0.6% 5%  
384 0.4% 5%  
385 2% 4%  
386 0.9% 2%  
387 0.1% 1.1%  
388 0.2% 1.0%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.4% 0.7%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.4% 99.7%  
346 0.3% 99.2%  
347 0.1% 98.9%  
348 0.3% 98.8%  
349 0.1% 98%  
350 1.1% 98%  
351 0.2% 97%  
352 2% 97%  
353 1.3% 95%  
354 0.6% 94%  
355 5% 93% Majority
356 2% 88%  
357 0.7% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 2% 83%  
360 5% 80%  
361 4% 76%  
362 3% 72%  
363 3% 68%  
364 3% 65%  
365 7% 62%  
366 14% 55%  
367 4% 41% Median
368 4% 38%  
369 4% 34%  
370 4% 30%  
371 2% 26%  
372 4% 24%  
373 1.2% 20%  
374 5% 19%  
375 1.0% 14%  
376 5% 13%  
377 2% 9%  
378 1.0% 6%  
379 0.8% 5%  
380 2% 5%  
381 0.9% 3%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.6% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.1%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.6%  
388 0.2% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.2% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.2% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.6%  
305 0.3% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.2%  
307 0.9% 99.1%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 1.5% 97%  
311 1.4% 96%  
312 0.6% 94%  
313 0.7% 94%  
314 3% 93%  
315 2% 90%  
316 1.5% 88%  
317 5% 87%  
318 6% 81%  
319 2% 76%  
320 3% 74%  
321 2% 71%  
322 5% 69%  
323 4% 64%  
324 10% 60% Median
325 8% 50%  
326 9% 42%  
327 3% 34%  
328 2% 30%  
329 2% 28%  
330 1.5% 27%  
331 3% 25%  
332 4% 22%  
333 4% 18%  
334 4% 14%  
335 2% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 0.7% 6%  
338 0.9% 5%  
339 0.5% 4%  
340 0.5% 3%  
341 2% 3%  
342 0.3% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.3% 99.6%  
301 0.3% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.0%  
303 0.8% 98.6%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 2% 97%  
307 2% 95%  
308 0.5% 93%  
309 3% 92%  
310 3% 89%  
311 1.1% 86%  
312 3% 85%  
313 3% 82%  
314 2% 79%  
315 4% 77%  
316 2% 73%  
317 6% 71%  
318 8% 65%  
319 2% 57%  
320 3% 54% Median
321 11% 52%  
322 3% 40%  
323 5% 38%  
324 1.3% 33%  
325 5% 31%  
326 3% 26%  
327 3% 23%  
328 4% 20%  
329 7% 17%  
330 0.6% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 1.1% 8%  
333 1.5% 7%  
334 0.7% 5%  
335 2% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.8% 2%  
339 0.2% 0.9%  
340 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
341 0.2% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.2% 99.7%  
302 0.6% 99.5%  
303 1.0% 98.8%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.4% 97%  
307 3% 97%  
308 1.4% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 1.2% 90%  
311 1.5% 89%  
312 2% 88%  
313 4% 85%  
314 6% 82%  
315 3% 76%  
316 6% 73%  
317 4% 67%  
318 2% 63%  
319 7% 61%  
320 7% 54%  
321 3% 47% Median
322 8% 44%  
323 2% 36%  
324 3% 34%  
325 3% 31%  
326 1.4% 28%  
327 3% 26%  
328 5% 24%  
329 3% 18%  
330 0.9% 15%  
331 4% 14%  
332 0.6% 10%  
333 0.9% 9%  
334 0.7% 8%  
335 4% 8%  
336 2% 4%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.4%  
340 0.6% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.3% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.3% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.4% 99.1%  
289 0.5% 98.7%  
290 2% 98%  
291 0.7% 97%  
292 0.8% 96%  
293 0.6% 95%  
294 2% 95%  
295 3% 93%  
296 2% 90%  
297 3% 88%  
298 1.5% 85%  
299 5% 84%  
300 9% 79%  
301 2% 70%  
302 3% 67%  
303 4% 65%  
304 8% 61%  
305 5% 53%  
306 3% 48% Median
307 4% 45%  
308 4% 41%  
309 3% 37%  
310 9% 34%  
311 2% 25%  
312 2% 22%  
313 4% 21%  
314 6% 17%  
315 0.8% 11%  
316 4% 11%  
317 0.9% 7%  
318 1.0% 6%  
319 0.4% 5%  
320 2% 5%  
321 0.6% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.2% 1.3%  
325 0.5% 1.1%  
326 0.3% 0.6%  
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0.1% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.3% 99.6%  
254 0.4% 99.3%  
255 0.5% 98.9%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.7% 98%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 1.1% 97%  
261 3% 95%  
262 5% 93%  
263 5% 88%  
264 1.1% 83%  
265 5% 82%  
266 5% 77%  
267 8% 72%  
268 1.5% 64%  
269 2% 62%  
270 2% 61%  
271 1.3% 59%  
272 3% 57% Median
273 4% 54%  
274 18% 50%  
275 6% 33%  
276 4% 27%  
277 2% 23%  
278 3% 20%  
279 2% 17%  
280 2% 15%  
281 3% 13%  
282 5% 10%  
283 0.4% 5%  
284 0.7% 5%  
285 1.3% 4%  
286 0.9% 3%  
287 0.8% 2%  
288 0.1% 1.2%  
289 0.1% 1.1%  
290 0.2% 1.0%  
291 0% 0.8%  
292 0.1% 0.8%  
293 0.1% 0.7%  
294 0.1% 0.6%  
295 0.3% 0.4%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.3% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.4%  
239 0.6% 99.1%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 0.9% 98%  
242 0.2% 97%  
243 0.9% 97%  
244 1.0% 96%  
245 2% 95%  
246 4% 93%  
247 4% 89%  
248 2% 85%  
249 1.4% 83%  
250 2% 82%  
251 3% 79%  
252 10% 76%  
253 7% 66%  
254 4% 60%  
255 3% 56%  
256 5% 53%  
257 3% 48% Median
258 3% 45%  
259 6% 42%  
260 7% 36%  
261 3% 28%  
262 4% 26%  
263 2% 21%  
264 2% 19%  
265 1.1% 18%  
266 5% 16%  
267 1.0% 11%  
268 3% 10%  
269 2% 7%  
270 0.8% 5%  
271 0.7% 4%  
272 0.9% 3%  
273 0.6% 3%  
274 1.2% 2%  
275 0.1% 0.7%  
276 0.2% 0.6%  
277 0.2% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.2% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.4% 99.5%  
151 0.9% 99.1%  
152 0.3% 98%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 1.5% 96%  
156 3% 95%  
157 4% 92%  
158 2% 88%  
159 3% 86%  
160 1.0% 82%  
161 2% 81%  
162 5% 80%  
163 4% 75%  
164 4% 70%  
165 13% 66% Median
166 2% 54%  
167 6% 51%  
168 7% 45%  
169 7% 38%  
170 7% 31%  
171 6% 23%  
172 2% 17%  
173 4% 15%  
174 0.9% 11%  
175 4% 10%  
176 0.9% 6%  
177 1.0% 5%  
178 1.3% 4%  
179 0.3% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.2%  
183 0.1% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.2% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0.1% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.1%  
148 0.8% 99.0%  
149 1.4% 98%  
150 0.6% 97%  
151 2% 96%  
152 4% 95%  
153 0.8% 91%  
154 2% 90%  
155 6% 88%  
156 2% 82%  
157 3% 80%  
158 8% 77%  
159 2% 69%  
160 7% 67%  
161 7% 60%  
162 8% 53% Median
163 4% 45%  
164 3% 41%  
165 9% 38%  
166 4% 29%  
167 2% 25%  
168 2% 23%  
169 5% 22%  
170 3% 17%  
171 3% 14%  
172 3% 10%  
173 1.0% 7%  
174 2% 6%  
175 0.9% 4%  
176 0.9% 3%  
177 0.3% 2%  
178 1.0% 2%  
179 0.4% 0.9%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations