Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 9–22 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.5% 22.0–25.1% 21.6–25.5% 21.2–25.9% 20.5–26.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.2% 21.7–24.8% 21.3–25.2% 20.9–25.6% 20.2–26.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.6–16.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.2–14.9% 10.7–15.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5% 4.2–6.7% 3.9–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 175 164–186 161–190 158–193 153–198
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 161–184 159–187 156–190 151–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 104 95–114 92–116 91–119 87–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 97 88–105 86–108 84–111 80–116
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 53–67 51–70 49–72 46–76
Die Linke 69 60 53–68 51–69 49–72 46–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–46 33–48 31–50 29–53

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.1%  
156 0.3% 98.8%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.8% 97%  
160 1.1% 96%  
161 2% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 1.4% 92%  
164 2% 91%  
165 3% 89%  
166 3% 86%  
167 3% 82%  
168 3% 80%  
169 3% 77%  
170 5% 74%  
171 4% 69%  
172 4% 65%  
173 5% 61%  
174 4% 56%  
175 5% 52% Median
176 4% 47%  
177 5% 43%  
178 5% 38%  
179 3% 33%  
180 4% 30%  
181 4% 26%  
182 3% 22%  
183 3% 19%  
184 2% 16%  
185 2% 14%  
186 2% 12%  
187 2% 10%  
188 2% 8%  
189 1.2% 6%  
190 1.2% 5%  
191 0.7% 4%  
192 0.7% 3%  
193 0.6% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.4%  
196 0.2% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.2% 99.3%  
153 0.3% 99.1%  
154 0.5% 98.8%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 0.7% 97%  
158 0.8% 96%  
159 2% 95%  
160 2% 94%  
161 2% 91%  
162 2% 89%  
163 2% 88%  
164 3% 86%  
165 4% 83%  
166 5% 79%  
167 3% 74%  
168 3% 71%  
169 4% 68%  
170 6% 64%  
171 5% 58%  
172 5% 54% Median
173 4% 49%  
174 3% 45%  
175 6% 42%  
176 5% 36%  
177 4% 31%  
178 3% 27%  
179 3% 24%  
180 3% 21%  
181 3% 19%  
182 3% 15%  
183 2% 12%  
184 1.3% 10%  
185 1.4% 9%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.4% 6%  
188 1.2% 4%  
189 0.4% 3%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.8% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.1%  
194 0.1% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 0.4% 99.3%  
89 0.9% 99.0%  
90 0.4% 98%  
91 0.6% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 2% 95%  
94 1.4% 93%  
95 2% 92%  
96 4% 90%  
97 3% 86%  
98 2% 82%  
99 5% 80%  
100 6% 76%  
101 6% 70%  
102 3% 64%  
103 5% 61%  
104 9% 57% Median
105 4% 47%  
106 3% 43%  
107 7% 40%  
108 7% 33%  
109 3% 26%  
110 3% 23%  
111 5% 20%  
112 3% 15%  
113 2% 12%  
114 1.3% 10%  
115 2% 9%  
116 2% 7%  
117 0.5% 4%  
118 0.8% 4%  
119 1.2% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.2% 1.4%  
122 0.3% 1.2%  
123 0.4% 0.9%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 99.5%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 2% 95%  
87 2% 93%  
88 4% 91%  
89 4% 88%  
90 4% 84%  
91 4% 80%  
92 4% 76%  
93 6% 72%  
94 4% 66% Last Result
95 4% 62%  
96 4% 57%  
97 6% 53% Median
98 4% 47%  
99 5% 42%  
100 7% 37%  
101 5% 30%  
102 4% 25%  
103 4% 21%  
104 5% 17%  
105 3% 12%  
106 2% 10%  
107 2% 8%  
108 1.5% 6%  
109 1.2% 5%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.7% 3%  
112 0.6% 2%  
113 0.4% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.2%  
115 0.2% 0.8%  
116 0.3% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 0.6% 99.0%  
49 1.0% 98%  
50 1.4% 97%  
51 2% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 4% 91%  
54 4% 88%  
55 4% 83%  
56 6% 79%  
57 7% 73%  
58 6% 66%  
59 6% 59%  
60 7% 53% Median
61 7% 46%  
62 6% 39%  
63 5% 32%  
64 5% 27%  
65 4% 21%  
66 4% 17%  
67 3% 13%  
68 3% 10%  
69 2% 7%  
70 1.4% 5%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.3% 99.4%  
48 0.5% 99.2%  
49 2% 98.6%  
50 2% 97%  
51 1.3% 95%  
52 3% 94%  
53 3% 91%  
54 2% 88%  
55 6% 85%  
56 10% 80%  
57 4% 70%  
58 5% 66%  
59 8% 61%  
60 6% 53% Median
61 5% 47%  
62 10% 42%  
63 7% 31%  
64 3% 25%  
65 5% 22%  
66 4% 17%  
67 2% 13%  
68 3% 11%  
69 4% 8% Last Result
70 0.8% 5%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 1.1% 3%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.2% 1.2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.7%  
30 0.8% 99.4%  
31 1.2% 98.6%  
32 2% 97%  
33 2% 95%  
34 3% 93%  
35 6% 90%  
36 5% 84%  
37 8% 79%  
38 8% 71%  
39 7% 62%  
40 8% 55% Median
41 8% 47%  
42 10% 39%  
43 6% 29%  
44 6% 24%  
45 4% 18%  
46 3% 13% Last Result
47 3% 10%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.2%  
53 0.3% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 492 100% 480–504 477–508 474–511 468–515
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 435–460 432–464 428–467 422–473
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 387 99.9% 375–401 371–405 368–407 361–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 377 98.7% 364–390 361–394 357–397 351–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 93% 356–383 353–386 349–390 344–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 7% 326–353 323–356 319–360 313–365
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 340 7% 327–352 323–356 319–359 313–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 317 0% 304–330 300–334 297–337 291–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 309 0% 297–322 293–326 290–329 284–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 280 0% 267–292 263–295 259–300 255–304
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 273 0% 260–285 256–290 253–293 248–298
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 153–175 150–179 148–182 143–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 164 0% 153–175 151–179 148–181 143–187

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
461 0% 100%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0% 99.8%  
465 0% 99.8%  
466 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.7%  
468 0.2% 99.5%  
469 0.3% 99.3%  
470 0.2% 99.0%  
471 0.5% 98.8%  
472 0.3% 98%  
473 0.5% 98%  
474 0.8% 98%  
475 0.7% 97%  
476 1.0% 96%  
477 1.4% 95%  
478 1.3% 94%  
479 2% 92%  
480 2% 90%  
481 1.4% 89%  
482 2% 87%  
483 2% 85%  
484 6% 83%  
485 2% 77%  
486 4% 75%  
487 3% 72%  
488 3% 69%  
489 4% 66%  
490 5% 62%  
491 6% 57% Median
492 5% 51%  
493 3% 46%  
494 3% 43%  
495 3% 40%  
496 4% 37%  
497 6% 33%  
498 4% 28%  
499 3% 24%  
500 2% 21%  
501 2% 19%  
502 2% 16%  
503 2% 14%  
504 2% 12%  
505 2% 10%  
506 1.2% 8%  
507 2% 7%  
508 1.1% 5%  
509 0.9% 4%  
510 0.5% 3%  
511 0.8% 3%  
512 0.3% 2%  
513 0.4% 1.4%  
514 0.3% 1.1%  
515 0.3% 0.7%  
516 0.1% 0.5%  
517 0.1% 0.4%  
518 0% 0.3%  
519 0.1% 0.2%  
520 0.1% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.6%  
423 0.2% 99.5%  
424 0.3% 99.3%  
425 0.3% 99.0%  
426 0.2% 98.7%  
427 0.5% 98%  
428 0.5% 98%  
429 0.7% 97%  
430 0.9% 97%  
431 0.8% 96%  
432 1.0% 95%  
433 1.0% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 2% 91%  
436 2% 89%  
437 2% 88%  
438 3% 85%  
439 3% 82%  
440 2% 79%  
441 4% 77%  
442 3% 73%  
443 3% 70%  
444 5% 67%  
445 4% 62%  
446 3% 58%  
447 4% 55% Median
448 3% 51%  
449 5% 48%  
450 4% 43%  
451 4% 39%  
452 3% 35%  
453 3% 32%  
454 4% 28%  
455 3% 24%  
456 3% 21%  
457 2% 19%  
458 3% 17%  
459 2% 14%  
460 2% 12%  
461 2% 10%  
462 1.4% 8%  
463 1.2% 7%  
464 1.0% 5%  
465 0.8% 4%  
466 0.7% 4%  
467 0.6% 3%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.5% 2%  
470 0.3% 1.3%  
471 0.2% 1.0%  
472 0.2% 0.8%  
473 0.1% 0.5%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.4%  
364 0.2% 99.1%  
365 0.3% 98.9%  
366 0.5% 98.6%  
367 0.4% 98%  
368 0.5% 98%  
369 1.0% 97%  
370 0.7% 96%  
371 1.1% 96%  
372 1.4% 95%  
373 1.0% 93%  
374 1.3% 92%  
375 2% 91%  
376 1.3% 89%  
377 4% 87%  
378 2% 84%  
379 2% 81%  
380 4% 79%  
381 3% 76%  
382 3% 73%  
383 3% 70%  
384 4% 67%  
385 4% 63%  
386 3% 58%  
387 5% 55% Median
388 3% 50%  
389 4% 47%  
390 3% 43%  
391 4% 39%  
392 3% 35%  
393 4% 32%  
394 2% 28%  
395 3% 25%  
396 3% 23%  
397 3% 19%  
398 2% 17%  
399 2% 14%  
400 1.4% 12%  
401 2% 11%  
402 1.4% 9%  
403 1.2% 7%  
404 1.2% 6%  
405 1.2% 5%  
406 0.7% 4%  
407 0.7% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.6%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 0.2% 99.2%  
354 0.3% 99.1%  
355 0.4% 98.7% Majority
356 0.3% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 1.0% 97%  
360 0.7% 96%  
361 1.4% 95%  
362 1.2% 94%  
363 2% 93%  
364 1.5% 91%  
365 2% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 3% 86%  
368 2% 83%  
369 3% 80%  
370 2% 77%  
371 5% 75%  
372 4% 70%  
373 4% 67%  
374 3% 63%  
375 4% 60%  
376 4% 56% Median
377 4% 52%  
378 3% 48%  
379 3% 45%  
380 4% 41%  
381 4% 37%  
382 3% 33%  
383 3% 30%  
384 3% 27%  
385 3% 24%  
386 3% 22%  
387 2% 18%  
388 2% 16%  
389 2% 14%  
390 2% 12%  
391 2% 10%  
392 2% 8%  
393 0.7% 6%  
394 1.2% 6%  
395 1.1% 5%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.6% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.3% 1.3%  
401 0.3% 1.1%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.1% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.2% 99.4%  
346 0.2% 99.1%  
347 0.5% 98.9%  
348 0.2% 98%  
349 0.9% 98%  
350 0.3% 97%  
351 0.9% 97%  
352 0.8% 96%  
353 0.7% 95%  
354 2% 95%  
355 1.1% 93% Majority
356 2% 92%  
357 2% 90%  
358 2% 88%  
359 2% 86%  
360 2% 84%  
361 4% 82%  
362 2% 78%  
363 4% 77%  
364 3% 72%  
365 2% 69%  
366 6% 67%  
367 3% 62%  
368 5% 59%  
369 3% 53% Median
370 5% 51%  
371 3% 45%  
372 4% 43%  
373 4% 39%  
374 3% 35%  
375 4% 31%  
376 3% 27%  
377 3% 25%  
378 3% 22%  
379 2% 19%  
380 3% 17%  
381 2% 14%  
382 2% 12%  
383 1.4% 10%  
384 1.4% 9%  
385 1.1% 7%  
386 1.1% 6%  
387 1.0% 5%  
388 0.7% 4%  
389 0.6% 3%  
390 0.6% 3%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.5% 2%  
393 0.2% 1.2%  
394 0.3% 1.0%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.5%  
315 0.3% 99.3%  
316 0.2% 99.0%  
317 0.5% 98.8%  
318 0.3% 98%  
319 0.6% 98%  
320 0.6% 97%  
321 0.7% 97%  
322 1.0% 96%  
323 1.1% 95%  
324 1.1% 94%  
325 1.4% 93%  
326 1.4% 91%  
327 2% 90%  
328 2% 88%  
329 3% 86%  
330 2% 83%  
331 3% 81%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 4% 73%  
335 3% 69%  
336 4% 65%  
337 4% 61%  
338 3% 57%  
339 5% 55% Median
340 3% 49%  
341 5% 47%  
342 3% 41%  
343 6% 38%  
344 2% 33%  
345 3% 31%  
346 4% 28%  
347 2% 23%  
348 4% 22%  
349 2% 18%  
350 2% 16%  
351 2% 14%  
352 2% 12%  
353 2% 10%  
354 1.1% 8%  
355 2% 7% Majority
356 0.7% 5%  
357 0.8% 5%  
358 0.9% 4%  
359 0.3% 3%  
360 0.9% 3%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.1%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.5%  
315 0.3% 99.3%  
316 0.2% 99.0%  
317 0.4% 98.8%  
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.7% 97%  
321 0.6% 97%  
322 1.0% 96%  
323 1.0% 95%  
324 1.1% 94%  
325 2% 93%  
326 1.3% 91%  
327 2% 90%  
328 3% 88%  
329 1.4% 85%  
330 3% 84%  
331 3% 81%  
332 4% 78%  
333 2% 74%  
334 3% 72%  
335 4% 69%  
336 4% 65%  
337 3% 61%  
338 5% 58%  
339 3% 53% Median
340 5% 50%  
341 4% 45%  
342 3% 41%  
343 3% 37%  
344 5% 35%  
345 3% 30%  
346 2% 27%  
347 3% 25%  
348 2% 21%  
349 3% 19%  
350 3% 16%  
351 1.4% 13%  
352 2% 12%  
353 2% 9%  
354 1.1% 8%  
355 1.1% 7% Majority
356 1.0% 6%  
357 0.8% 5%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.4% 1.5%  
363 0.2% 1.1%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.2% 99.3%  
294 0.4% 99.1%  
295 0.2% 98.7%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 0.6% 97%  
300 1.2% 96%  
301 0.9% 95%  
302 1.5% 94%  
303 1.3% 92%  
304 2% 91%  
305 1.1% 89%  
306 2% 88%  
307 2% 86%  
308 2% 83%  
309 3% 81%  
310 4% 78%  
311 4% 74%  
312 3% 70%  
313 3% 67%  
314 5% 64%  
315 4% 59%  
316 3% 56% Median
317 5% 53%  
318 4% 48%  
319 4% 44%  
320 4% 41%  
321 3% 37%  
322 4% 34%  
323 3% 30%  
324 3% 26%  
325 4% 24%  
326 3% 20%  
327 3% 18%  
328 2% 15%  
329 2% 13%  
330 2% 11%  
331 2% 10%  
332 1.0% 8%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 1.0% 6%  
335 0.9% 5%  
336 0.6% 4%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.4%  
341 0.3% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 0.8%  
343 0.2% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.2% 99.4%  
286 0.2% 99.2%  
287 0.3% 98.9%  
288 0.4% 98.6%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.5% 97%  
292 1.0% 97%  
293 0.9% 96%  
294 1.4% 95%  
295 1.5% 93%  
296 1.3% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 2% 88%  
299 3% 87%  
300 2% 84%  
301 3% 82%  
302 3% 79%  
303 4% 76%  
304 3% 73%  
305 4% 69%  
306 4% 66%  
307 4% 62%  
308 3% 58%  
309 5% 55% Median
310 4% 50%  
311 4% 46%  
312 4% 42%  
313 4% 38%  
314 3% 34%  
315 3% 31%  
316 3% 27%  
317 3% 24%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 19%  
320 2% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 2% 12%  
323 2% 10%  
324 2% 8%  
325 1.0% 7%  
326 1.0% 6%  
327 0.7% 5%  
328 0.8% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.5%  
333 0.3% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.3% 99.4%  
257 0.4% 99.1%  
258 0.6% 98.7%  
259 0.7% 98%  
260 0.9% 97%  
261 0.8% 97%  
262 0.7% 96%  
263 0.6% 95%  
264 0.7% 94%  
265 0.8% 94%  
266 1.4% 93%  
267 2% 92%  
268 3% 89%  
269 3% 86%  
270 4% 83%  
271 4% 79%  
272 3% 75%  
273 3% 73%  
274 2% 70%  
275 2% 68%  
276 2% 66%  
277 4% 65%  
278 4% 61%  
279 6% 58% Median
280 8% 52%  
281 7% 44%  
282 4% 38%  
283 4% 33%  
284 2% 30%  
285 1.5% 28%  
286 2% 26%  
287 2% 25%  
288 2% 22%  
289 3% 20%  
290 3% 18%  
291 3% 14%  
292 3% 11%  
293 2% 9%  
294 1.2% 6%  
295 0.6% 5%  
296 0.4% 5%  
297 0.4% 4%  
298 0.4% 4%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.8% 3%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.6% 2%  
303 0.4% 1.0%  
304 0.2% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.4%  
250 0.3% 99.2%  
251 0.4% 98.9%  
252 0.4% 98.5%  
253 0.7% 98%  
254 0.9% 97%  
255 0.6% 97%  
256 1.5% 96%  
257 0.9% 94%  
258 1.2% 93%  
259 1.2% 92%  
260 1.5% 91%  
261 2% 90%  
262 2% 88%  
263 3% 86%  
264 2% 83%  
265 5% 82%  
266 3% 77%  
267 5% 74%  
268 4% 69%  
269 3% 65%  
270 4% 61%  
271 3% 57%  
272 4% 54% Median
273 4% 50%  
274 4% 47%  
275 3% 43%  
276 4% 40%  
277 4% 36%  
278 3% 33%  
279 4% 30%  
280 4% 25%  
281 3% 22%  
282 2% 19%  
283 3% 16%  
284 2% 13%  
285 1.4% 11%  
286 2% 10%  
287 0.9% 8%  
288 1.2% 7%  
289 0.8% 6%  
290 1.1% 5%  
291 0.7% 4%  
292 0.7% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.5% 2%  
295 0.4% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.2%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.3% 99.4%  
145 0.3% 99.2%  
146 0.4% 98.8%  
147 0.7% 98%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.2% 97%  
150 1.1% 96%  
151 1.4% 95%  
152 2% 93%  
153 2% 92%  
154 2% 90%  
155 3% 87%  
156 3% 85%  
157 2% 82%  
158 4% 79%  
159 4% 75%  
160 3% 72%  
161 5% 68%  
162 5% 64%  
163 5% 59%  
164 4% 54% Median
165 5% 50%  
166 4% 45%  
167 4% 40%  
168 5% 36%  
169 4% 32%  
170 4% 27%  
171 4% 23%  
172 2% 20%  
173 3% 17%  
174 2% 14%  
175 2% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 1.2% 8%  
178 2% 7%  
179 0.8% 5%  
180 0.8% 4%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.3% 99.4%  
145 0.4% 99.1%  
146 0.4% 98.7%  
147 0.5% 98%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 1.1% 97%  
150 0.8% 96%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 94%  
153 2% 92%  
154 2% 90%  
155 3% 88%  
156 3% 85%  
157 3% 82%  
158 3% 79%  
159 4% 76%  
160 4% 72%  
161 4% 68%  
162 5% 64%  
163 5% 59%  
164 5% 54% Median
165 4% 49%  
166 5% 45%  
167 5% 40%  
168 4% 35%  
169 4% 31%  
170 4% 28%  
171 4% 24%  
172 2% 20%  
173 3% 18%  
174 3% 15%  
175 2% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 2% 8%  
178 1.2% 6%  
179 1.1% 5%  
180 0.9% 4%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 0.6% 2%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.5%  
185 0.2% 1.1%  
186 0.2% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations