Opinion Poll by Kantar, 16–22 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.7–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.9–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 155 147–167 146–169 143–171 141–173
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 156 149–164 146–167 144–169 140–174
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 104–119 102–122 101–124 98–127
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 97–113 95–114 94–116 91–120
Die Linke 69 74 69–81 67–83 65–84 63–88
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 61–74 60–76 58–77 56–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 32–41 31–42 30–44 28–46

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.3% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.1% 99.6%  
142 0.2% 99.5%  
143 2% 99.3%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 0.9% 97%  
146 1.3% 96%  
147 8% 95%  
148 0.9% 87%  
149 1.2% 86%  
150 5% 85%  
151 15% 80%  
152 0.9% 65%  
153 2% 65%  
154 4% 63%  
155 11% 59% Median
156 0.8% 48%  
157 3% 47%  
158 2% 45%  
159 4% 43%  
160 1.1% 39%  
161 9% 38%  
162 1.4% 29%  
163 2% 28%  
164 3% 26%  
165 9% 23%  
166 2% 14%  
167 2% 12%  
168 1.0% 10%  
169 5% 9%  
170 0.9% 4%  
171 0.5% 3%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 1.5% 2%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.2% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.3% 99.5%  
141 0.3% 99.2%  
142 0.2% 98.9%  
143 1.1% 98.7%  
144 0.5% 98%  
145 1.0% 97%  
146 2% 96%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 92%  
149 2% 90%  
150 3% 88%  
151 6% 85%  
152 11% 79%  
153 5% 69%  
154 5% 64%  
155 3% 59%  
156 14% 56% Median
157 5% 42%  
158 3% 37%  
159 6% 35%  
160 3% 29%  
161 5% 26%  
162 3% 21%  
163 3% 18%  
164 6% 15%  
165 2% 9%  
166 1.2% 7%  
167 1.4% 6%  
168 0.4% 4%  
169 2% 4%  
170 0.9% 2%  
171 0.3% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 1.0%  
173 0.1% 0.7%  
174 0.2% 0.6%  
175 0.2% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.8% 99.1%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 4% 93%  
105 5% 90%  
106 5% 85%  
107 4% 80%  
108 5% 76%  
109 5% 72%  
110 2% 67%  
111 4% 65%  
112 7% 61%  
113 8% 54% Median
114 5% 46%  
115 16% 41%  
116 9% 25%  
117 3% 15%  
118 2% 12%  
119 2% 10%  
120 2% 8%  
121 1.3% 6%  
122 0.9% 5%  
123 1.4% 4%  
124 0.6% 3%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.7% 1.0%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.2% 99.5%  
92 0.6% 99.4%  
93 1.2% 98.7%  
94 2% 98%  
95 1.5% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 3% 92%  
98 3% 89%  
99 5% 86%  
100 5% 81%  
101 6% 76%  
102 4% 69%  
103 4% 65%  
104 4% 61%  
105 5% 57%  
106 5% 52% Median
107 5% 47%  
108 12% 42%  
109 6% 30%  
110 5% 25%  
111 4% 20%  
112 3% 15%  
113 6% 13%  
114 2% 6%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.5% 3%  
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.4% 1.3%  
119 0.3% 0.9%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.5% 99.2%  
65 1.2% 98.7%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91% Last Result
70 4% 87%  
71 7% 84%  
72 10% 76%  
73 6% 66%  
74 15% 60% Median
75 7% 45%  
76 5% 38%  
77 9% 33%  
78 5% 24%  
79 5% 19%  
80 3% 14%  
81 3% 11%  
82 2% 8%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 98.7%  
58 2% 98%  
59 1.2% 96%  
60 4% 95%  
61 2% 91%  
62 7% 89%  
63 3% 81%  
64 7% 78%  
65 11% 71%  
66 6% 61%  
67 6% 55% Median
68 7% 49%  
69 5% 42%  
70 13% 37%  
71 4% 24%  
72 4% 20%  
73 3% 16%  
74 5% 14%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.8%  
28 0.5% 99.7%  
29 0.9% 99.2%  
30 2% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 6% 87%  
34 5% 81%  
35 16% 76%  
36 17% 59% Median
37 4% 43%  
38 9% 38%  
39 10% 29%  
40 8% 19%  
41 2% 11%  
42 5% 9%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.1% 3%  
45 0.4% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 456 100% 445–465 443–469 440–471 435–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 417 100% 408–428 405–432 402–434 397–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 372 99.3% 363–383 360–386 358–388 353–393
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 365 93% 356–377 353–379 350–381 346–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 349 31% 339–362 337–366 335–369 330–371
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 337 0.7% 326–346 323–349 321–351 316–356
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.1% 319–338 313–340 311–343 307–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 307 0% 296–316 292–319 290–320 286–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 298 0% 288–310 285–313 283–314 278–319
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 260 0% 252–271 248–274 245–276 241–281
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 252–271 248–273 246–275 241–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 170–189 168–191 166–193 162–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 162–182 159–183 158–185 155–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.2% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.7%  
434 0% 99.7%  
435 0.3% 99.7%  
436 0.3% 99.4%  
437 0.4% 99.1%  
438 0.9% 98.6%  
439 0.2% 98%  
440 0.1% 98%  
441 2% 97%  
442 0.2% 96%  
443 3% 96%  
444 3% 93%  
445 3% 90%  
446 0.5% 87%  
447 0.9% 86%  
448 3% 85%  
449 5% 82%  
450 13% 77%  
451 3% 64%  
452 2% 61%  
453 1.2% 58% Median
454 2% 57%  
455 3% 54%  
456 12% 52%  
457 6% 39%  
458 2% 34%  
459 5% 31%  
460 0.7% 26%  
461 1.3% 26%  
462 7% 24%  
463 2% 18%  
464 4% 15%  
465 4% 12%  
466 0.5% 8% Last Result
467 0.4% 7%  
468 0.9% 7%  
469 2% 6%  
470 0.9% 4%  
471 1.1% 3%  
472 0.7% 2%  
473 0.1% 1.1%  
474 0.1% 1.0%  
475 0.3% 0.9%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.2% 0.3%  
479 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9% Last Result
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.2% 99.8%  
397 0.3% 99.6%  
398 0.3% 99.3%  
399 0.3% 99.0%  
400 0.4% 98.7%  
401 0.6% 98%  
402 0.9% 98%  
403 2% 97%  
404 0.2% 95%  
405 1.4% 95%  
406 1.2% 94%  
407 2% 92%  
408 7% 90%  
409 2% 83%  
410 3% 81%  
411 2% 79%  
412 11% 76%  
413 1.2% 65%  
414 3% 64% Median
415 4% 61%  
416 3% 57%  
417 8% 54%  
418 4% 46%  
419 5% 42%  
420 2% 37%  
421 3% 35%  
422 4% 32%  
423 6% 28%  
424 5% 21%  
425 3% 17%  
426 1.1% 14%  
427 2% 13%  
428 3% 11%  
429 2% 9%  
430 1.3% 7%  
431 0.6% 6%  
432 0.7% 5%  
433 1.5% 4%  
434 1.5% 3%  
435 0.2% 1.4%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.4% 0.9%  
438 0.2% 0.5%  
439 0.2% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.7%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.5% 99.3% Majority
356 0.7% 98.8%  
357 0.3% 98%  
358 0.6% 98%  
359 1.3% 97%  
360 1.1% 96%  
361 2% 95%  
362 2% 93%  
363 0.8% 91%  
364 3% 90%  
365 2% 87%  
366 5% 85%  
367 2% 80%  
368 4% 78%  
369 3% 74%  
370 3% 71%  
371 14% 69% Median
372 7% 55%  
373 5% 48%  
374 2% 44%  
375 5% 42%  
376 7% 37%  
377 4% 30%  
378 4% 26%  
379 1.3% 22%  
380 4% 20%  
381 4% 16%  
382 2% 13%  
383 2% 11%  
384 1.1% 9%  
385 1.1% 8%  
386 3% 6%  
387 0.7% 4%  
388 0.9% 3%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.4% 1.3%  
392 0.3% 1.0%  
393 0.3% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.6% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 98.7%  
349 0.4% 98%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.8% 97%  
352 1.2% 97%  
353 0.8% 95%  
354 1.2% 95%  
355 2% 93% Majority
356 3% 92%  
357 1.2% 89%  
358 2% 87%  
359 4% 85%  
360 5% 81%  
361 3% 75%  
362 5% 72%  
363 3% 67%  
364 9% 64% Median
365 5% 55%  
366 5% 50%  
367 1.2% 45%  
368 6% 44%  
369 6% 38%  
370 4% 32%  
371 3% 28%  
372 2% 25%  
373 4% 23%  
374 4% 19%  
375 1.2% 15%  
376 2% 13%  
377 4% 12%  
378 0.6% 8%  
379 3% 7%  
380 2% 4%  
381 0.7% 3%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.3%  
384 0.3% 1.0%  
385 0.2% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.2% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.3% 99.6%  
331 0.3% 99.3%  
332 0.3% 99.0%  
333 0.3% 98.6%  
334 0.7% 98%  
335 1.4% 98%  
336 0.5% 96%  
337 2% 96%  
338 3% 94%  
339 1.3% 91%  
340 1.1% 89%  
341 3% 88%  
342 11% 85%  
343 5% 74%  
344 1.4% 69%  
345 5% 68%  
346 3% 63%  
347 4% 60% Median
348 4% 55%  
349 5% 51%  
350 6% 46%  
351 3% 40%  
352 2% 38%  
353 4% 36%  
354 2% 32%  
355 4% 31% Majority
356 2% 27%  
357 3% 25%  
358 2% 22%  
359 2% 20%  
360 1.2% 17%  
361 6% 16%  
362 1.2% 10%  
363 1.3% 9%  
364 0.6% 8%  
365 2% 7%  
366 2% 5%  
367 0.5% 3%  
368 0.2% 3%  
369 2% 3%  
370 0.3% 0.9%  
371 0% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.3% 99.6%  
317 0.3% 99.3%  
318 0.4% 99.0%  
319 0.2% 98.7%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 0.9% 98%  
322 0.7% 97%  
323 3% 96%  
324 1.1% 94%  
325 1.1% 92%  
326 2% 91%  
327 2% 89%  
328 4% 87%  
329 4% 84%  
330 1.3% 80%  
331 4% 78%  
332 4% 74%  
333 7% 70%  
334 5% 63%  
335 2% 58%  
336 5% 56% Median
337 7% 52%  
338 14% 45%  
339 3% 31%  
340 3% 29%  
341 4% 26%  
342 2% 22%  
343 5% 20%  
344 2% 15%  
345 3% 13%  
346 0.8% 10%  
347 2% 9%  
348 2% 7%  
349 1.1% 5%  
350 1.3% 4%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.7% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.2%  
355 0.2% 0.7% Majority
356 0.2% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.4% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.2% 99.1%  
310 0.9% 98.9%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 1.4% 96%  
314 0.2% 94%  
315 2% 94%  
316 0.3% 93%  
317 0.6% 92%  
318 0.6% 92%  
319 1.4% 91%  
320 1.2% 90%  
321 5% 89%  
322 4% 84%  
323 3% 79%  
324 8% 77%  
325 2% 69%  
326 7% 66%  
327 4% 60%  
328 2% 55%  
329 2% 53% Median
330 6% 51%  
331 2% 45%  
332 5% 43%  
333 6% 38%  
334 9% 32%  
335 2% 23%  
336 6% 21%  
337 2% 15%  
338 4% 13%  
339 1.4% 10%  
340 4% 8%  
341 0.8% 4%  
342 0.7% 3%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.4% 1.0%  
350 0.3% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.4%  
288 0.3% 99.2%  
289 1.0% 98.9%  
290 1.1% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 1.4% 96%  
293 0.8% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 1.3% 92%  
296 4% 90%  
297 1.3% 87%  
298 1.4% 86%  
299 6% 84%  
300 2% 78%  
301 10% 76%  
302 6% 66%  
303 2% 60%  
304 4% 59% Median
305 2% 55%  
306 3% 53%  
307 7% 50%  
308 6% 44%  
309 9% 38%  
310 5% 29%  
311 4% 24%  
312 5% 20%  
313 1.3% 15%  
314 2% 14%  
315 2% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 0.4% 9%  
318 2% 9%  
319 2% 7%  
320 2% 5%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.4%  
324 0.2% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.0%  
326 0.2% 1.0%  
327 0.4% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.7%  
279 0.3% 99.5%  
280 0.8% 99.2%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 2% 98%  
284 0.2% 96%  
285 1.2% 96%  
286 2% 94%  
287 2% 93%  
288 2% 91%  
289 0.4% 89%  
290 1.2% 89%  
291 5% 88%  
292 3% 82%  
293 1.5% 79%  
294 12% 77%  
295 3% 65%  
296 3% 62%  
297 2% 59% Median
298 7% 57%  
299 3% 50%  
300 7% 47%  
301 2% 39%  
302 3% 37%  
303 5% 34%  
304 5% 29%  
305 4% 24%  
306 4% 20%  
307 1.2% 15%  
308 2% 14%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.0% 8%  
312 0.3% 7%  
313 4% 7%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.8% 2%  
316 0.7% 2%  
317 0.3% 1.0%  
318 0.2% 0.8%  
319 0.2% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.3% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.3%  
244 0.5% 99.1%  
245 1.4% 98.7%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 2% 96%  
249 2% 94%  
250 0.9% 92%  
251 1.2% 92%  
252 3% 90%  
253 1.5% 87%  
254 2% 85%  
255 4% 84%  
256 16% 80%  
257 2% 64%  
258 2% 63% Median
259 6% 60%  
260 5% 54%  
261 6% 49%  
262 4% 44%  
263 3% 40%  
264 5% 37%  
265 2% 31%  
266 2% 29%  
267 5% 27%  
268 5% 22%  
269 3% 17%  
270 2% 14%  
271 3% 12%  
272 3% 9%  
273 0.4% 6%  
274 2% 6%  
275 1.3% 4%  
276 0.7% 3%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.2% 2%  
279 0.6% 1.5%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.3% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0.1% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0.1% 100%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.2% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.2% 99.4%  
244 0.5% 99.2%  
245 0.5% 98.7%  
246 2% 98%  
247 1.1% 96%  
248 0.8% 95%  
249 1.1% 94%  
250 2% 93%  
251 0.9% 91%  
252 1.4% 90%  
253 3% 89%  
254 2% 86%  
255 4% 84%  
256 6% 80%  
257 3% 74%  
258 5% 71%  
259 3% 65%  
260 1.2% 62%  
261 3% 61%  
262 6% 58% Median
263 4% 52%  
264 15% 48%  
265 10% 33%  
266 4% 24%  
267 5% 20%  
268 1.2% 15%  
269 1.3% 13%  
270 0.7% 12%  
271 2% 11%  
272 3% 9%  
273 1.4% 6%  
274 1.1% 5%  
275 1.3% 3%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.1% 1.3%  
279 0.1% 1.2%  
280 0.2% 1.1%  
281 0.2% 0.8%  
282 0.2% 0.6%  
283 0.2% 0.5%  
284 0.2% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.6% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.1%  
164 0.4% 98.8%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 1.5% 97%  
168 0.9% 96%  
169 1.3% 95%  
170 3% 93%  
171 1.4% 90%  
172 4% 88%  
173 3% 84%  
174 7% 81%  
175 1.2% 74%  
176 2% 72%  
177 11% 71%  
178 4% 60%  
179 5% 56%  
180 2% 52% Median
181 3% 49%  
182 12% 46%  
183 2% 34%  
184 7% 32%  
185 7% 25%  
186 2% 18%  
187 2% 16%  
188 3% 15%  
189 4% 11%  
190 0.8% 7%  
191 2% 7%  
192 0.9% 5%  
193 2% 4%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.2% 1.3%  
196 0.6% 1.1%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.7% 99.4%  
157 0.8% 98.7%  
158 1.3% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 2% 95%  
161 1.5% 93%  
162 3% 91%  
163 5% 88%  
164 2% 83%  
165 4% 81%  
166 1.4% 77%  
167 4% 76%  
168 2% 71%  
169 3% 70%  
170 3% 66%  
171 5% 63%  
172 3% 58%  
173 4% 55% Median
174 4% 51%  
175 3% 46%  
176 5% 44%  
177 3% 39%  
178 13% 36%  
179 4% 23%  
180 5% 19%  
181 3% 14%  
182 5% 11%  
183 2% 6%  
184 0.8% 4%  
185 1.2% 3%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.2% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations