Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 24–27 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.5% 12.1–16.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 154 146–163 144–166 142–168 138–172
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 154 143–160 139–162 136–163 133–166
Alternative für Deutschland 94 112 105–120 103–122 101–124 98–128
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 104 99–112 95–115 94–118 92–120
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 66 61–74 60–76 59–78 57–81
Die Linke 69 64 58–70 57–72 56–74 53–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 48–59 46–60 45–62 43–65

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.2% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.4% 99.4%  
140 0.5% 98.9%  
141 0.7% 98%  
142 0.9% 98%  
143 1.3% 97%  
144 2% 96%  
145 2% 94%  
146 3% 91%  
147 3% 89%  
148 4% 86%  
149 5% 82%  
150 4% 77%  
151 7% 73%  
152 5% 66%  
153 6% 61%  
154 6% 56% Median
155 5% 50%  
156 6% 45%  
157 5% 39%  
158 6% 33%  
159 5% 27%  
160 4% 22%  
161 3% 19%  
162 3% 15%  
163 4% 13%  
164 2% 9%  
165 2% 7%  
166 2% 5%  
167 0.9% 4%  
168 0.8% 3%  
169 0.5% 2%  
170 0.5% 1.4%  
171 0.4% 0.9%  
172 0.1% 0.6%  
173 0.2% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.4% 99.3%  
135 0.5% 98.9%  
136 0.9% 98%  
137 0.9% 97%  
138 1.2% 97%  
139 1.1% 95%  
140 2% 94%  
141 1.4% 93%  
142 1.3% 91%  
143 2% 90%  
144 1.0% 89%  
145 1.5% 88%  
146 1.4% 86%  
147 2% 85%  
148 2% 83%  
149 3% 81%  
150 4% 77%  
151 6% 73%  
152 5% 67%  
153 7% 62%  
154 8% 54% Median
155 9% 47%  
156 6% 38%  
157 8% 32%  
158 5% 24%  
159 6% 18%  
160 4% 12%  
161 3% 8%  
162 2% 5%  
163 1.2% 3%  
164 0.8% 2%  
165 0.6% 1.2%  
166 0.2% 0.6%  
167 0.2% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.9%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 1.2% 97%  
103 3% 96%  
104 2% 93%  
105 4% 91%  
106 4% 87%  
107 6% 83%  
108 5% 77%  
109 5% 72%  
110 8% 67%  
111 6% 59%  
112 7% 53% Median
113 7% 47%  
114 7% 40%  
115 5% 32%  
116 5% 27%  
117 5% 23%  
118 3% 18%  
119 4% 15%  
120 3% 11%  
121 2% 8%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.2% 4%  
124 0.9% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.0%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.6%  
93 0.7% 99.2%  
94 1.4% 98%  
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 1.3% 93%  
98 0.9% 92%  
99 2% 91%  
100 5% 89%  
101 7% 84%  
102 10% 78%  
103 12% 68%  
104 7% 56% Median
105 3% 49%  
106 2% 46%  
107 3% 44%  
108 6% 41%  
109 6% 34%  
110 9% 28%  
111 7% 18%  
112 4% 12%  
113 2% 8%  
114 0.7% 6%  
115 0.8% 6%  
116 1.0% 5%  
117 1.1% 4%  
118 1.2% 3%  
119 0.8% 1.5%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 95%  
61 6% 92%  
62 6% 86%  
63 9% 80%  
64 9% 72%  
65 10% 62%  
66 8% 53% Median
67 7% 44%  
68 7% 37%  
69 7% 30%  
70 5% 24%  
71 4% 19%  
72 2% 15%  
73 2% 12%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 7%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.3%  
55 1.0% 98.7%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 3% 93%  
59 4% 90%  
60 7% 86%  
61 7% 79%  
62 8% 72%  
63 8% 64%  
64 8% 56% Median
65 9% 48%  
66 8% 40%  
67 8% 32%  
68 6% 24%  
69 5% 18% Last Result
70 4% 13%  
71 3% 9%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.5% 4%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 3% 94%  
48 5% 91%  
49 6% 87%  
50 8% 81%  
51 8% 72%  
52 11% 64%  
53 8% 53% Median
54 10% 45%  
55 8% 35%  
56 7% 27%  
57 6% 20%  
58 4% 14%  
59 3% 10%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 467 100% 455–475 451–477 448–479 443–482
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 427 100% 417–437 414–440 412–442 407–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 100% 374–395 371–398 369–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 378 99.8% 368–388 365–391 362–394 357–398
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 79% 349–371 345–372 341–375 336–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 326 0.1% 316–338 314–339 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0% 314–335 311–338 309–340 304–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 318 0% 308–328 305–331 302–333 297–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 312 0% 301–322 296–323 293–324 289–329
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 272 0% 262–282 260–285 258–288 252–292
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 260 0% 250–270 247–273 245–275 241–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 164–181 160–184 159–186 156–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 161–179 159–181 157–183 153–188

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.8%  
442 0.1% 99.7%  
443 0.2% 99.5%  
444 0.3% 99.3%  
445 0.4% 99.0%  
446 0.5% 98.7%  
447 0.6% 98%  
448 0.9% 98%  
449 1.0% 97%  
450 0.7% 96%  
451 0.8% 95%  
452 1.4% 94%  
453 1.3% 93%  
454 1.2% 92%  
455 1.2% 90%  
456 2% 89%  
457 2% 88%  
458 2% 86%  
459 2% 84%  
460 3% 82%  
461 3% 79%  
462 4% 77%  
463 3% 73%  
464 6% 70%  
465 6% 64% Median
466 5% 58% Last Result
467 6% 53%  
468 5% 47%  
469 5% 42%  
470 8% 37%  
471 4% 29%  
472 5% 24%  
473 4% 20%  
474 4% 15%  
475 3% 11%  
476 2% 8%  
477 2% 6%  
478 1.1% 4%  
479 1.1% 3%  
480 0.6% 2%  
481 0.5% 1.3%  
482 0.3% 0.8%  
483 0.2% 0.5%  
484 0.1% 0.3%  
485 0.1% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.2% 99.5%  
408 0.4% 99.3%  
409 0.3% 99.0%  
410 0.4% 98.7%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 0.7% 98%  
413 0.9% 97%  
414 1.4% 96%  
415 2% 95%  
416 1.5% 93%  
417 2% 91%  
418 4% 89%  
419 3% 86%  
420 3% 83%  
421 5% 81%  
422 3% 76%  
423 5% 73%  
424 5% 68%  
425 6% 63%  
426 6% 58%  
427 6% 52% Median
428 4% 46%  
429 4% 43%  
430 4% 39%  
431 6% 35%  
432 5% 30%  
433 4% 25%  
434 4% 21%  
435 3% 16%  
436 1.4% 13%  
437 3% 12%  
438 2% 9%  
439 1.4% 7%  
440 2% 6%  
441 2% 4%  
442 0.7% 3%  
443 0.5% 2%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.3% 1.2%  
446 0.3% 0.9%  
447 0.2% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.3% 99.2%  
367 0.5% 98.9%  
368 0.5% 98%  
369 0.8% 98%  
370 0.7% 97%  
371 1.3% 96%  
372 1.3% 95%  
373 2% 94%  
374 2% 92%  
375 3% 90%  
376 3% 87%  
377 3% 84%  
378 4% 81%  
379 4% 78%  
380 4% 74%  
381 4% 70%  
382 4% 66%  
383 6% 62%  
384 6% 56%  
385 4% 50% Median
386 6% 46%  
387 5% 40%  
388 4% 35%  
389 4% 31%  
390 4% 27%  
391 4% 23%  
392 3% 19%  
393 3% 16%  
394 3% 14%  
395 2% 11%  
396 2% 9%  
397 2% 7%  
398 0.9% 5%  
399 1.1% 4%  
400 0.8% 3%  
401 0.5% 2%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.2%  
404 0.3% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.2% 99.6%  
358 0.2% 99.4%  
359 0.3% 99.2%  
360 0.3% 98.9%  
361 0.6% 98.7%  
362 0.9% 98%  
363 0.8% 97%  
364 1.0% 96%  
365 1.2% 95%  
366 2% 94%  
367 2% 92%  
368 3% 90%  
369 2% 88%  
370 3% 85%  
371 3% 82%  
372 3% 79%  
373 4% 76%  
374 5% 72%  
375 5% 67%  
376 4% 62%  
377 6% 58% Median
378 5% 52%  
379 4% 47%  
380 6% 43%  
381 4% 37%  
382 5% 33%  
383 4% 29%  
384 3% 25%  
385 4% 22%  
386 4% 18%  
387 2% 14%  
388 2% 12%  
389 2% 10%  
390 2% 8%  
391 1.4% 5%  
392 0.6% 4%  
393 0.6% 3%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.5% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0.1% 100%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.4% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.4%  
338 0% 99.2%  
339 0.1% 99.2%  
340 1.0% 99.1%  
341 0.9% 98%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 0.1% 97%  
344 1.0% 97%  
345 3% 96%  
346 0.6% 93%  
347 0.1% 93%  
348 1.1% 93%  
349 3% 92%  
350 2% 89%  
351 0.1% 87%  
352 1.4% 87%  
353 5% 86%  
354 2% 81%  
355 0.4% 79% Majority
356 1.1% 78%  
357 11% 77%  
358 6% 67%  
359 1.1% 60%  
360 0.1% 59%  
361 6% 59% Median
362 14% 53%  
363 5% 39%  
364 0.1% 34%  
365 0.6% 34%  
366 8% 33%  
367 11% 26%  
368 0.4% 14%  
369 0% 14%  
370 2% 14%  
371 6% 12%  
372 2% 6%  
373 0% 4%  
374 0.1% 4%  
375 1.5% 3%  
376 1.3% 2%  
377 0% 0.6%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.3% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0.2% 99.8%  
307 0.3% 99.6%  
308 0.5% 99.3%  
309 0.3% 98.8%  
310 0.2% 98.5%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 1.0% 98%  
313 2% 97%  
314 3% 95%  
315 2% 93%  
316 1.1% 91%  
317 0.9% 90%  
318 2% 89%  
319 5% 87%  
320 7% 83%  
321 6% 76%  
322 2% 70%  
323 2% 68%  
324 3% 67% Median
325 10% 64%  
326 8% 54%  
327 5% 46%  
328 3% 41%  
329 1.3% 38%  
330 3% 37%  
331 5% 34%  
332 8% 29%  
333 5% 21%  
334 2% 17%  
335 0.9% 14%  
336 0.8% 13%  
337 2% 13%  
338 3% 10%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.0% 5%  
341 0.3% 4%  
342 0.3% 4%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.9% 3%  
345 0.8% 2%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.3% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.1%  
307 0.6% 98.8%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 1.1% 97%  
311 0.9% 96%  
312 2% 95%  
313 2% 93%  
314 2% 91%  
315 3% 89%  
316 3% 86%  
317 3% 84%  
318 4% 81%  
319 4% 77%  
320 4% 73%  
321 4% 69%  
322 5% 65% Median
323 6% 60%  
324 4% 54%  
325 6% 50%  
326 6% 44%  
327 4% 38%  
328 4% 34%  
329 4% 30%  
330 4% 26%  
331 4% 22%  
332 3% 19%  
333 3% 16%  
334 3% 13%  
335 2% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.3% 6%  
338 1.3% 5%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.1%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.3% 99.1%  
300 0.4% 98.8%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.7% 98%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.2% 96%  
305 1.2% 95%  
306 1.3% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 3% 88%  
310 2% 86%  
311 4% 83%  
312 4% 79%  
313 4% 75%  
314 3% 72%  
315 5% 69%  
316 5% 64%  
317 4% 58%  
318 5% 54%  
319 7% 49% Median
320 3% 43%  
321 5% 39%  
322 5% 34%  
323 4% 29%  
324 3% 24%  
325 5% 22%  
326 3% 17%  
327 2% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 3% 10%  
330 1.4% 7%  
331 0.9% 6%  
332 1.2% 5%  
333 1.1% 3%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.4% 1.3%  
337 0.3% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.2% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.3% 99.5%  
290 0.7% 99.2%  
291 0.7% 98.5%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 97%  
295 1.3% 97%  
296 2% 96%  
297 1.3% 94%  
298 0.9% 93%  
299 0.7% 92%  
300 0.8% 91%  
301 1.4% 90%  
302 2% 89%  
303 2% 87%  
304 3% 85%  
305 5% 82%  
306 3% 78%  
307 2% 74%  
308 1.1% 72%  
309 3% 71%  
310 7% 68%  
311 9% 61% Median
312 9% 52%  
313 2% 43%  
314 1.2% 41%  
315 4% 40%  
316 8% 36%  
317 7% 28%  
318 6% 21%  
319 3% 15%  
320 0.5% 13%  
321 2% 12%  
322 3% 10%  
323 3% 7%  
324 2% 4%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.1% 2%  
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.6% 1.4%  
329 0.4% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.3% 99.5%  
254 0.3% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 98.9%  
256 0.4% 98.6%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 1.1% 97%  
260 2% 96%  
261 2% 94%  
262 3% 92%  
263 3% 89%  
264 2% 86%  
265 3% 84%  
266 2% 81%  
267 3% 79%  
268 4% 76%  
269 4% 72%  
270 6% 68%  
271 6% 61%  
272 7% 55%  
273 6% 49% Median
274 5% 42%  
275 4% 38%  
276 3% 33%  
277 2% 30%  
278 4% 28%  
279 3% 24%  
280 4% 20%  
281 4% 16%  
282 3% 12%  
283 2% 10%  
284 2% 7%  
285 1.1% 5%  
286 0.7% 4%  
287 0.7% 4%  
288 0.5% 3%  
289 0.6% 2%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.4% 1.1%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.3% 99.5%  
242 0.4% 99.2%  
243 0.4% 98.8%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 1.0% 98%  
246 0.8% 97%  
247 2% 96%  
248 1.4% 94%  
249 1.3% 93%  
250 2% 92%  
251 3% 89%  
252 3% 86%  
253 3% 83%  
254 3% 80%  
255 4% 77%  
256 7% 73%  
257 5% 67%  
258 4% 61% Median
259 5% 58%  
260 4% 53%  
261 8% 49%  
262 5% 41%  
263 3% 36%  
264 4% 32%  
265 3% 28%  
266 4% 25%  
267 4% 21%  
268 3% 16%  
269 2% 14%  
270 3% 11%  
271 1.3% 9%  
272 2% 7%  
273 2% 5%  
274 0.6% 4%  
275 1.1% 3%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.3%  
279 0.2% 0.9%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.5% 99.7%  
157 0.6% 99.2%  
158 0.8% 98.6%  
159 2% 98%  
160 1.3% 96%  
161 0.8% 95%  
162 1.1% 94%  
163 2% 93%  
164 3% 91%  
165 2% 88%  
166 7% 86%  
167 8% 79%  
168 4% 70%  
169 7% 66%  
170 5% 59% Median
171 3% 54%  
172 4% 51%  
173 5% 47%  
174 7% 43%  
175 4% 36%  
176 6% 32%  
177 6% 26%  
178 3% 19%  
179 3% 16%  
180 2% 14%  
181 2% 12%  
182 1.3% 10%  
183 2% 9%  
184 2% 6%  
185 0.8% 4%  
186 0.9% 3%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.2% 1.5%  
190 0.3% 1.3%  
191 0.4% 0.9%  
192 0.1% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.4% 99.3%  
155 0.5% 98.9%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 1.1% 98%  
158 1.5% 97%  
159 1.2% 95%  
160 2% 94%  
161 4% 92%  
162 2% 88%  
163 2% 85%  
164 6% 83%  
165 5% 77%  
166 3% 72%  
167 5% 70%  
168 8% 64% Median
169 5% 56%  
170 4% 51%  
171 7% 47%  
172 6% 40%  
173 5% 34%  
174 4% 29%  
175 6% 25%  
176 3% 20%  
177 3% 16%  
178 2% 13%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 0.8% 6%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 1.4% 4%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.6% 1.4%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.2% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations