Opinion Poll by Kantar, 23–29 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.8–24.1% 19.2–24.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.4–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 154–177 152–180 150–182 145–186
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 149–169 145–172 143–175 138–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–123 101–124 100–127 96–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 107 96–114 94–116 93–119 89–125
Die Linke 69 68 61–76 58–77 57–79 55–83
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 53–67 52–68 50–71 48–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–44 32–46 31–48 29–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.5%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.3% 99.2%  
148 0.3% 98.8%  
149 0.7% 98.5%  
150 1.2% 98%  
151 0.7% 97%  
152 1.0% 96%  
153 1.3% 95%  
154 5% 94%  
155 1.4% 89%  
156 3% 88%  
157 5% 85%  
158 6% 79%  
159 3% 73%  
160 3% 70%  
161 4% 67%  
162 3% 62%  
163 3% 59%  
164 3% 57%  
165 5% 54% Median
166 2% 49%  
167 7% 46%  
168 4% 39%  
169 3% 36%  
170 6% 33%  
171 5% 27%  
172 2% 23%  
173 3% 21%  
174 4% 18%  
175 2% 14%  
176 0.5% 12%  
177 3% 11%  
178 2% 8%  
179 0.9% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.6% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.1% 2%  
185 1.1% 2%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.7%  
139 0.4% 99.3%  
140 0.2% 98.9%  
141 0.2% 98.7%  
142 0.3% 98.6%  
143 1.0% 98%  
144 0.9% 97%  
145 1.5% 96%  
146 1.4% 95%  
147 1.0% 93%  
148 0.8% 92%  
149 4% 92%  
150 3% 87%  
151 5% 84%  
152 5% 80%  
153 1.1% 74%  
154 2% 73%  
155 6% 72%  
156 5% 66%  
157 6% 61%  
158 6% 56%  
159 8% 50% Median
160 2% 42%  
161 3% 40%  
162 8% 37%  
163 5% 29%  
164 5% 24%  
165 3% 19%  
166 2% 17%  
167 2% 15%  
168 1.5% 13%  
169 3% 12%  
170 2% 9%  
171 1.4% 6%  
172 0.5% 5%  
173 0.4% 4%  
174 1.3% 4%  
175 0.9% 3%  
176 0.9% 2%  
177 0.2% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0.1% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.5%  
97 0.3% 99.2%  
98 0.3% 98.9%  
99 1.1% 98.6%  
100 2% 98%  
101 1.0% 96%  
102 0.8% 95%  
103 3% 94%  
104 4% 92%  
105 4% 88%  
106 2% 84%  
107 3% 82%  
108 7% 79%  
109 8% 72%  
110 5% 63%  
111 1.2% 59%  
112 3% 58%  
113 5% 54% Median
114 12% 50%  
115 4% 38%  
116 2% 34%  
117 5% 32%  
118 9% 28%  
119 2% 19%  
120 0.9% 17%  
121 3% 16%  
122 3% 13%  
123 5% 10%  
124 0.8% 5%  
125 0.4% 4%  
126 1.0% 4%  
127 1.0% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.2% 1.5%  
130 0.3% 1.3%  
131 0.4% 1.0%  
132 0.4% 0.7%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.6% 99.5%  
91 0.7% 98.9%  
92 0.4% 98%  
93 3% 98%  
94 1.4% 95% Last Result
95 1.2% 94%  
96 3% 92%  
97 4% 90%  
98 2% 86%  
99 0.9% 83%  
100 4% 82%  
101 5% 79%  
102 2% 74%  
103 3% 72%  
104 3% 69%  
105 6% 65%  
106 7% 59%  
107 5% 52% Median
108 6% 48%  
109 14% 42%  
110 3% 28%  
111 5% 25%  
112 6% 20%  
113 3% 14%  
114 2% 10%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.1% 4%  
118 0.4% 3%  
119 0.9% 3%  
120 0.4% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.2% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.3% 0.8%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 1.2% 99.2%  
57 0.9% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 0.6% 92%  
61 2% 92%  
62 4% 90%  
63 4% 86%  
64 12% 82%  
65 7% 70%  
66 3% 62%  
67 3% 59%  
68 6% 56% Median
69 11% 49% Last Result
70 9% 38%  
71 8% 29%  
72 2% 21%  
73 3% 19%  
74 2% 16%  
75 3% 14%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.5% 3%  
80 0.3% 2%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 0.3% 98%  
51 0.3% 97%  
52 4% 97%  
53 11% 93%  
54 1.1% 82%  
55 2% 80%  
56 9% 79%  
57 8% 70%  
58 3% 61%  
59 6% 58%  
60 7% 52% Median
61 1.1% 45%  
62 6% 44%  
63 9% 37%  
64 9% 29%  
65 0.3% 19%  
66 3% 19%  
67 9% 16%  
68 2% 7%  
69 0.4% 5%  
70 1.4% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.2% 2%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.6%  
30 1.0% 99.0%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 5% 92%  
34 6% 87%  
35 9% 81%  
36 6% 73%  
37 10% 67%  
38 16% 57% Median
39 4% 41%  
40 6% 37%  
41 7% 31%  
42 4% 25%  
43 6% 21%  
44 5% 15%  
45 2% 9%  
46 3% 7% Last Result
47 1.3% 5%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 476 100% 463–487 460–489 457–493 452–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 421 100% 410–436 408–439 405–440 398–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 376 99.1% 365–389 361–392 358–394 352–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 94% 358–381 354–385 350–388 345–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 363 78% 349–375 345–379 343–381 337–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 6% 328–351 324–355 321–359 315–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 332 0.7% 321–344 317–349 312–351 307–355
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 318 0% 303–329 301–333 300–335 293–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 310 0% 297–322 293–325 291–328 285–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 260–284 257–287 254–291 248–296
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 253–277 248–279 246–282 241–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 171–192 169–194 168–196 159–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 161–184 160–187 157–189 153–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.8%  
450 0.1% 99.7%  
451 0.1% 99.7%  
452 0.3% 99.6%  
453 0.2% 99.3%  
454 0.2% 99.1%  
455 0.2% 98.8%  
456 0.5% 98.6%  
457 1.4% 98%  
458 0.9% 97%  
459 0.8% 96%  
460 0.8% 95%  
461 0.9% 94%  
462 2% 93%  
463 4% 92%  
464 0.8% 88%  
465 4% 87%  
466 4% 83% Last Result
467 2% 79%  
468 3% 77%  
469 3% 74%  
470 2% 71%  
471 3% 69%  
472 2% 66%  
473 4% 64%  
474 6% 61%  
475 4% 54% Median
476 7% 50%  
477 2% 44%  
478 8% 42%  
479 3% 34%  
480 3% 31%  
481 3% 28%  
482 3% 26%  
483 5% 23%  
484 2% 18%  
485 5% 16%  
486 0.6% 11%  
487 2% 10%  
488 3% 9%  
489 2% 6%  
490 1.5% 5%  
491 0.2% 3%  
492 0.5% 3%  
493 0.6% 3%  
494 0.5% 2%  
495 0.7% 2%  
496 0.1% 0.9%  
497 0.3% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.5%  
499 0.1% 0.4%  
500 0.1% 0.3%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0% 99.7%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.1% 99.4%  
400 0.3% 99.3%  
401 0.2% 99.0%  
402 0.5% 98.8%  
403 0.3% 98%  
404 0.4% 98%  
405 0.9% 98%  
406 1.0% 97%  
407 0.5% 96%  
408 3% 95%  
409 1.4% 92%  
410 0.5% 90%  
411 5% 90%  
412 2% 85%  
413 0.8% 83%  
414 2% 83%  
415 2% 80%  
416 4% 78%  
417 7% 74%  
418 5% 66%  
419 2% 61%  
420 7% 59%  
421 3% 52%  
422 4% 49% Median
423 3% 45%  
424 1.2% 42%  
425 6% 41%  
426 2% 35%  
427 2% 33%  
428 4% 31%  
429 4% 26%  
430 1.3% 22%  
431 3% 21%  
432 4% 17%  
433 0.9% 13%  
434 1.3% 12%  
435 0.6% 11%  
436 3% 11%  
437 0.9% 7%  
438 0.9% 6%  
439 0.7% 5%  
440 2% 5%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.7% 2%  
443 0.4% 1.4%  
444 0.1% 1.0%  
445 0.1% 0.9%  
446 0.4% 0.8%  
447 0% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.4%  
355 0.4% 99.1% Majority
356 0.7% 98.7%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.7% 98%  
359 0.4% 97%  
360 1.0% 96%  
361 1.1% 95%  
362 1.3% 94%  
363 2% 93%  
364 0.7% 91%  
365 2% 91%  
366 0.9% 89%  
367 5% 88%  
368 3% 83%  
369 1.4% 81%  
370 3% 79%  
371 5% 77%  
372 9% 72%  
373 3% 63%  
374 4% 60%  
375 1.2% 56%  
376 10% 55% Median
377 5% 45%  
378 1.3% 40%  
379 2% 39%  
380 3% 37%  
381 5% 34%  
382 2% 29%  
383 4% 28%  
384 4% 24%  
385 2% 20%  
386 2% 18%  
387 1.3% 16%  
388 2% 14%  
389 4% 13%  
390 1.2% 8%  
391 0.3% 7%  
392 3% 7%  
393 1.3% 4%  
394 0.5% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.1% 2%  
398 0.4% 1.5%  
399 0.1% 1.1%  
400 0.4% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0.1% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0.1% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.3% 99.7%  
346 0.2% 99.3%  
347 0.2% 99.1%  
348 0.2% 98.9%  
349 0.7% 98.7%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.7% 97%  
352 0.3% 97%  
353 1.2% 96%  
354 0.7% 95%  
355 1.3% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 1.1% 92%  
358 1.0% 91%  
359 5% 90%  
360 3% 85%  
361 0.5% 81%  
362 4% 81%  
363 2% 77%  
364 3% 75%  
365 3% 72%  
366 2% 69%  
367 13% 67%  
368 1.4% 55%  
369 3% 53%  
370 2% 50% Median
371 3% 48%  
372 7% 45%  
373 6% 39%  
374 4% 32%  
375 2% 29%  
376 3% 27%  
377 1.0% 24%  
378 3% 23%  
379 4% 20%  
380 5% 16%  
381 0.6% 11%  
382 1.1% 10%  
383 0.9% 9%  
384 2% 8%  
385 2% 6%  
386 0.9% 4%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.9% 3%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.1%  
393 0.3% 0.8%  
394 0% 0.5%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.3% 99.3%  
340 0.1% 99.0%  
341 0.3% 98.9%  
342 0.4% 98.5%  
343 1.0% 98%  
344 0.3% 97%  
345 2% 97%  
346 0.2% 95%  
347 0.8% 95%  
348 2% 94%  
349 4% 92%  
350 0.4% 88%  
351 3% 88%  
352 1.0% 85%  
353 5% 84%  
354 0.7% 79%  
355 2% 78% Majority
356 10% 76%  
357 2% 66%  
358 1.4% 65%  
359 4% 63%  
360 3% 59%  
361 3% 56%  
362 3% 54% Median
363 2% 51%  
364 7% 49%  
365 5% 41%  
366 3% 36%  
367 3% 34%  
368 7% 31%  
369 2% 24%  
370 3% 22%  
371 0.7% 19%  
372 2% 18%  
373 3% 16%  
374 2% 13%  
375 1.1% 11%  
376 0.4% 10%  
377 0.8% 9%  
378 2% 8%  
379 3% 6%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 0.9% 3%  
382 1.0% 2%  
383 0.2% 1.2%  
384 0.1% 1.0%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.2% 0.7%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.2%  
318 0.4% 98.9%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.3% 98%  
321 0.9% 98%  
322 0.4% 97%  
323 0.9% 97%  
324 2% 96%  
325 2% 94%  
326 0.9% 92%  
327 1.1% 91%  
328 0.6% 90%  
329 5% 89%  
330 4% 84%  
331 3% 80%  
332 1.0% 77%  
333 3% 76%  
334 2% 73%  
335 4% 71%  
336 6% 68%  
337 7% 61%  
338 3% 55%  
339 2% 52%  
340 3% 50% Median
341 1.4% 47%  
342 13% 45%  
343 2% 33%  
344 3% 31%  
345 3% 28%  
346 2% 25%  
347 4% 23%  
348 0.5% 19%  
349 3% 19%  
350 5% 15%  
351 1.0% 10%  
352 1.1% 9%  
353 2% 8%  
354 1.3% 7%  
355 0.7% 6% Majority
356 1.2% 5%  
357 0.3% 4%  
358 0.7% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.7% 2%  
361 0.2% 1.3%  
362 0.2% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.3% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0.1% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.2% 99.7%  
308 0.3% 99.5%  
309 0.4% 99.2%  
310 0.2% 98.8%  
311 0.6% 98.6%  
312 1.5% 98%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0.2% 96%  
315 0.5% 96%  
316 0.6% 96%  
317 0.3% 95%  
318 1.0% 95%  
319 0.4% 94%  
320 1.5% 93%  
321 4% 92%  
322 6% 88%  
323 4% 82%  
324 5% 79%  
325 5% 74%  
326 9% 69%  
327 3% 60%  
328 2% 57%  
329 1.5% 55%  
330 2% 53%  
331 0.3% 52%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 4% 48%  
334 0.8% 44%  
335 9% 43%  
336 3% 34%  
337 6% 31%  
338 2% 25%  
339 7% 23%  
340 0.8% 16%  
341 3% 15%  
342 0.9% 12%  
343 0.3% 11%  
344 0.7% 11%  
345 0.1% 10%  
346 2% 10%  
347 0.8% 8%  
348 0.2% 7%  
349 3% 7%  
350 0.4% 4%  
351 1.4% 4%  
352 0.6% 2%  
353 0.8% 2%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.3% 0.7% Majority
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.2% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.5%  
294 0.4% 99.2%  
295 0.3% 98.8%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 1.1% 98%  
301 2% 97%  
302 3% 95%  
303 5% 91%  
304 2% 86%  
305 1.0% 84%  
306 0.4% 83%  
307 2% 83%  
308 0.3% 81%  
309 4% 81%  
310 2% 76%  
311 2% 75%  
312 4% 73%  
313 4% 69%  
314 2% 66%  
315 0.5% 64%  
316 3% 63% Median
317 9% 60%  
318 5% 51%  
319 20% 47%  
320 1.3% 27%  
321 3% 25%  
322 0.8% 22%  
323 0.8% 22%  
324 1.1% 21%  
325 3% 20%  
326 2% 17%  
327 1.2% 15%  
328 3% 14%  
329 1.2% 11%  
330 0.9% 9%  
331 0.4% 9%  
332 0.4% 8%  
333 4% 8%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 2% 4%  
336 1.5% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0.2% 0.6%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.5% 98.9%  
289 0.4% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.6% 98%  
292 1.0% 97%  
293 2% 96%  
294 1.5% 94%  
295 0.4% 93%  
296 2% 93%  
297 1.5% 91%  
298 2% 89%  
299 1.0% 87%  
300 2% 86%  
301 6% 83%  
302 1.2% 78%  
303 6% 76%  
304 2% 71%  
305 2% 69%  
306 3% 66%  
307 4% 64%  
308 4% 60%  
309 1.3% 57%  
310 6% 55% Median
311 8% 50%  
312 3% 42%  
313 2% 39%  
314 7% 37%  
315 3% 30%  
316 4% 28%  
317 3% 24%  
318 0.6% 21%  
319 3% 21%  
320 5% 18%  
321 2% 13%  
322 1.2% 11%  
323 3% 10%  
324 1.1% 6%  
325 1.1% 5%  
326 0.3% 4%  
327 0.4% 4%  
328 1.4% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.6% 1.4%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.4% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.2%  
250 0.3% 99.0%  
251 0.5% 98.7%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 1.0% 98%  
255 1.0% 97%  
256 0.6% 96%  
257 0.3% 95%  
258 4% 95%  
259 0.9% 91%  
260 1.0% 90%  
261 1.0% 89%  
262 3% 88%  
263 3% 86%  
264 4% 82%  
265 7% 78%  
266 3% 71%  
267 2% 68%  
268 4% 65%  
269 3% 62%  
270 5% 59%  
271 6% 54%  
272 1.4% 47% Median
273 12% 46%  
274 3% 34%  
275 1.0% 31%  
276 2% 30%  
277 4% 28%  
278 2% 25%  
279 3% 23%  
280 3% 20%  
281 4% 16%  
282 0.6% 13%  
283 1.4% 12%  
284 0.8% 11%  
285 1.3% 10%  
286 2% 8%  
287 2% 6%  
288 1.2% 4%  
289 0.3% 3%  
290 0.3% 3%  
291 0.6% 3%  
292 0.2% 2%  
293 0.7% 2%  
294 0.1% 1.0%  
295 0.4% 0.9%  
296 0.3% 0.5%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0.1% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.4% 99.3%  
244 0.4% 98.8%  
245 0.8% 98%  
246 1.0% 98%  
247 1.3% 97%  
248 1.0% 95%  
249 1.0% 94%  
250 0.7% 94%  
251 0.7% 93%  
252 0.8% 92%  
253 5% 91%  
254 1.3% 86%  
255 3% 85%  
256 2% 82%  
257 4% 80%  
258 10% 75%  
259 3% 65%  
260 2% 62%  
261 1.5% 60%  
262 4% 59%  
263 6% 54% Median
264 2% 48%  
265 2% 46%  
266 3% 45%  
267 8% 42%  
268 6% 34%  
269 4% 28%  
270 2% 24%  
271 2% 22%  
272 5% 20%  
273 1.3% 15%  
274 1.1% 13%  
275 1.0% 12%  
276 1.0% 11%  
277 2% 10%  
278 3% 9%  
279 1.3% 6%  
280 0.8% 5%  
281 1.2% 4%  
282 0.5% 3%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.1% 1.2%  
286 0.1% 1.1%  
287 0.2% 1.0%  
288 0.5% 0.8%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0.1% 100%  
158 0.2% 99.9%  
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.3% 99.5%  
161 0.5% 99.2%  
162 0.7% 98.8%  
163 0.1% 98%  
164 0.1% 98%  
165 0% 98%  
166 0.1% 98%  
167 0.2% 98%  
168 1.1% 98%  
169 4% 96%  
170 3% 93%  
171 4% 90%  
172 9% 86%  
173 4% 77%  
174 2% 73%  
175 0.7% 71%  
176 0.3% 70%  
177 0.3% 70%  
178 0.4% 70%  
179 3% 69%  
180 7% 67%  
181 6% 60% Median
182 11% 54%  
183 13% 43%  
184 7% 30%  
185 3% 23%  
186 1.4% 20%  
187 0.4% 19%  
188 0.1% 18%  
189 0.3% 18%  
190 0.8% 18%  
191 3% 17%  
192 5% 14%  
193 2% 9%  
194 3% 7%  
195 2% 4%  
196 0.9% 3%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0.1% 1.3%  
199 0% 1.2%  
200 0% 1.2%  
201 0.1% 1.2%  
202 0.3% 1.1%  
203 0.2% 0.8%  
204 0.3% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.8% 99.6%  
154 0% 98.8%  
155 0.5% 98.7%  
156 0.2% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.4% 97%  
159 1.3% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 3% 93%  
162 2% 90%  
163 1.5% 88%  
164 2% 87%  
165 4% 84%  
166 3% 80%  
167 7% 77%  
168 3% 69%  
169 5% 66%  
170 1.5% 62%  
171 3% 60%  
172 4% 57%  
173 7% 53% Median
174 5% 46%  
175 4% 41%  
176 3% 37%  
177 3% 35%  
178 5% 31%  
179 2% 27%  
180 6% 25%  
181 5% 19%  
182 2% 14%  
183 1.2% 12%  
184 4% 11%  
185 0.6% 8%  
186 2% 7%  
187 0.5% 5%  
188 1.0% 5%  
189 1.2% 4%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations