Opinion Poll by Forsa, 27–31 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.3% 21.5–24.7% 21.2–25.0% 20.6–25.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.3–25.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 177 168–185 164–190 163–191 157–197
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 176 165–186 163–188 161–190 156–194
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 92 85–100 83–103 82–104 78–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 77–92 76–94 74–95 71–99
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 63–76 61–78 60–80 57–83
Die Linke 69 69 62–76 61–78 59–79 57–83
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–47 34–48 33–49 31–51

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.4% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.3%  
160 0% 98.9%  
161 0.1% 98.9%  
162 0.4% 98.8%  
163 2% 98%  
164 2% 96%  
165 3% 95%  
166 0.8% 91%  
167 0.2% 90%  
168 0.7% 90%  
169 3% 90%  
170 5% 86%  
171 13% 82%  
172 3% 69%  
173 1.3% 66%  
174 0.5% 64%  
175 3% 64%  
176 4% 61%  
177 12% 57% Median
178 9% 46%  
179 6% 37%  
180 0.4% 31%  
181 0.7% 30%  
182 3% 30%  
183 6% 27%  
184 8% 21%  
185 4% 13%  
186 2% 9%  
187 0.1% 7%  
188 0.1% 7%  
189 2% 7%  
190 1.1% 5%  
191 2% 4%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.1% 1.3%  
194 0% 1.2%  
195 0.2% 1.2%  
196 0.2% 1.0%  
197 0.4% 0.8%  
198 0.3% 0.4%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0.5% 99.7%  
157 0.1% 99.2%  
158 0.2% 99.0%  
159 0.7% 98.8%  
160 0.3% 98%  
161 2% 98%  
162 0.6% 96%  
163 3% 96%  
164 1.2% 93%  
165 3% 91%  
166 2% 89%  
167 2% 87%  
168 6% 85%  
169 0.9% 78%  
170 6% 77%  
171 4% 72%  
172 2% 67%  
173 5% 65%  
174 3% 60%  
175 4% 57%  
176 8% 53% Median
177 3% 45%  
178 6% 42%  
179 4% 35%  
180 7% 31%  
181 0.8% 25%  
182 4% 24%  
183 2% 20%  
184 1.0% 18%  
185 5% 17%  
186 3% 11%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 7%  
189 0.4% 4%  
190 2% 4%  
191 0.3% 1.4%  
192 0.2% 1.1%  
193 0.1% 0.9%  
194 0.3% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.5%  
79 0.2% 99.2%  
80 0.9% 99.1%  
81 0.6% 98%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 1.3% 93%  
85 4% 92%  
86 6% 88%  
87 1.1% 82%  
88 7% 81%  
89 8% 74%  
90 8% 66%  
91 4% 58%  
92 10% 55% Median
93 6% 44%  
94 5% 39%  
95 6% 34%  
96 2% 28%  
97 6% 26%  
98 5% 20%  
99 1.0% 15%  
100 4% 14%  
101 3% 9%  
102 0.8% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 0.4% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.2%  
107 0.2% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.6%  
109 0.3% 0.6%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.1%  
73 0.6% 98.9%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 1.1% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 4% 94%  
78 2% 89%  
79 3% 87%  
80 4% 84%  
81 4% 80%  
82 6% 76%  
83 10% 70%  
84 2% 60%  
85 12% 59% Median
86 5% 46%  
87 7% 41%  
88 4% 34%  
89 6% 30%  
90 9% 24%  
91 2% 15%  
92 4% 12%  
93 0.9% 8%  
94 4% 7% Last Result
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.2% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 99.2%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 2% 98%  
61 1.0% 96%  
62 4% 95%  
63 3% 91%  
64 6% 88%  
65 4% 82%  
66 8% 78%  
67 8% 70%  
68 8% 62%  
69 10% 54% Median
70 5% 44%  
71 10% 39%  
72 4% 30%  
73 8% 26%  
74 4% 18%  
75 3% 14%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 0.7% 4%  
80 2% 3% Last Result
81 0.3% 2%  
82 0.9% 1.4%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.3%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 1.4% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 94%  
63 3% 90%  
64 7% 87%  
65 4% 79%  
66 6% 75%  
67 5% 69%  
68 10% 65%  
69 9% 55% Last Result, Median
70 10% 46%  
71 5% 36%  
72 4% 31%  
73 5% 27%  
74 6% 22%  
75 6% 16%  
76 1.3% 10%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.2% 1.4%  
82 0.5% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 1.2% 99.5%  
33 1.1% 98%  
34 4% 97%  
35 3% 93%  
36 8% 90%  
37 8% 83%  
38 10% 75%  
39 5% 65%  
40 10% 60%  
41 6% 50% Median
42 8% 44%  
43 4% 36%  
44 8% 32%  
45 6% 23%  
46 5% 17% Last Result
47 6% 12%  
48 2% 6%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 486 100% 474–496 472–499 469–502 464–506
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 463 100% 452–471 449–475 445–478 442–484
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 394 100% 383–403 380–406 375–410 370–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 379 99.7% 365–388 364–394 359–395 355–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 371 96% 359–382 356–385 352–387 347–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 338 4% 327–350 324–353 322–357 318–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 338 3% 326–349 326–353 322–355 317–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 312 0% 294–320 293–323 292–324 289–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 302 0% 289–314 285–315 283–316 280–321
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 286 0% 274–297 270–299 269–302 264–306
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 259–280 255–282 253–286 250–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 154–171 149–173 148–176 144–181
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 160 0% 154–171 149–173 147–174 144–182

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
459 0% 100%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.8%  
464 0.3% 99.7%  
465 0.1% 99.4%  
466 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
467 0% 98.9%  
468 1.1% 98.8%  
469 1.0% 98%  
470 0.4% 97%  
471 0.9% 96%  
472 1.0% 96%  
473 2% 95%  
474 4% 93%  
475 2% 89%  
476 4% 86%  
477 0.8% 83%  
478 6% 82%  
479 2% 76%  
480 4% 74%  
481 3% 71%  
482 4% 67%  
483 4% 63%  
484 4% 60%  
485 4% 55%  
486 5% 52% Median
487 6% 47%  
488 2% 41%  
489 6% 40%  
490 3% 33%  
491 8% 30%  
492 2% 22%  
493 0.8% 21%  
494 5% 20%  
495 1.0% 14%  
496 4% 13%  
497 3% 10%  
498 0.4% 7%  
499 3% 7%  
500 0.4% 4%  
501 0.7% 3%  
502 0.8% 3%  
503 0.7% 2%  
504 0.4% 1.2%  
505 0.1% 0.9%  
506 0.4% 0.8%  
507 0% 0.4%  
508 0.2% 0.3%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0.1% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.2% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.5%  
443 0.2% 99.3%  
444 1.4% 99.1%  
445 0.4% 98%  
446 0.5% 97%  
447 0.4% 97%  
448 0.8% 96%  
449 0.8% 96%  
450 0.6% 95%  
451 2% 94%  
452 4% 92%  
453 0.9% 88%  
454 3% 87%  
455 5% 84%  
456 2% 79%  
457 5% 78%  
458 2% 72%  
459 1.3% 70%  
460 7% 69%  
461 7% 62%  
462 3% 55%  
463 3% 51% Median
464 5% 48%  
465 5% 43%  
466 4% 38%  
467 10% 35%  
468 7% 24%  
469 2% 18%  
470 4% 15%  
471 2% 12%  
472 1.2% 9%  
473 2% 8%  
474 0.9% 6%  
475 0.7% 5%  
476 0.7% 5%  
477 0.9% 4%  
478 0.6% 3%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.6% 2%  
481 0.4% 2%  
482 0.2% 1.2%  
483 0.5% 1.0%  
484 0.3% 0.5%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.2% 99.8%  
370 0.2% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.4%  
372 0.6% 99.2%  
373 0.1% 98.6%  
374 0.8% 98.5%  
375 0.3% 98%  
376 0.3% 97%  
377 0.6% 97%  
378 0.6% 96%  
379 0.7% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 1.1% 94%  
382 2% 93%  
383 3% 91%  
384 3% 89%  
385 4% 86%  
386 4% 82%  
387 3% 78%  
388 6% 74%  
389 5% 68%  
390 3% 63%  
391 5% 60%  
392 2% 55%  
393 3% 53%  
394 3% 50% Median
395 2% 47%  
396 6% 45%  
397 2% 39%  
398 6% 37%  
399 7% 31%  
400 4% 23%  
401 6% 20%  
402 2% 13%  
403 2% 12%  
404 3% 10%  
405 1.1% 6%  
406 1.1% 5%  
407 0.8% 4%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.4% 3%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.5% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.5% 1.2%  
415 0.1% 0.7%  
416 0.2% 0.6%  
417 0.2% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0.1% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.7% Majority
356 0.8% 99.5%  
357 0.7% 98.6%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 0.2% 97%  
361 0.4% 97%  
362 0.2% 97%  
363 0.9% 97%  
364 3% 96%  
365 5% 93%  
366 2% 88%  
367 3% 86%  
368 3% 83%  
369 6% 80%  
370 0.8% 74%  
371 1.5% 73%  
372 1.4% 71%  
373 2% 70%  
374 1.3% 68%  
375 7% 66%  
376 4% 60%  
377 2% 55%  
378 3% 53% Median
379 0.9% 50%  
380 2% 49%  
381 2% 47%  
382 3% 45%  
383 12% 42%  
384 4% 31%  
385 6% 27%  
386 6% 20%  
387 3% 14%  
388 1.5% 11%  
389 0.6% 10%  
390 1.3% 9%  
391 0.4% 8%  
392 1.0% 8%  
393 1.1% 7%  
394 3% 6%  
395 0.8% 3%  
396 1.0% 2%  
397 0.2% 1.0%  
398 0.4% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.5%  
349 0.2% 99.4%  
350 0.7% 99.2%  
351 0.9% 98.5%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 1.0% 96% Majority
356 3% 95%  
357 0.8% 92%  
358 0.2% 91%  
359 2% 91%  
360 2% 89%  
361 3% 86%  
362 1.3% 83%  
363 2% 82%  
364 1.4% 80%  
365 5% 79%  
366 6% 74%  
367 4% 67%  
368 4% 63%  
369 1.3% 60%  
370 5% 58%  
371 5% 53% Median
372 5% 48%  
373 2% 43%  
374 3% 41%  
375 6% 38%  
376 5% 32%  
377 4% 27%  
378 2% 23%  
379 5% 21%  
380 2% 17%  
381 3% 15%  
382 5% 12%  
383 0.5% 7%  
384 2% 7%  
385 0.5% 5%  
386 2% 5%  
387 0.9% 3%  
388 0.7% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.1% 1.3%  
391 0.8% 1.2%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0.8% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 98.8%  
320 0.2% 98.7%  
321 0.7% 98%  
322 0.9% 98%  
323 2% 97%  
324 0.5% 95%  
325 2% 95%  
326 0.5% 93%  
327 5% 93%  
328 3% 88%  
329 2% 85%  
330 5% 83%  
331 2% 79%  
332 4% 77%  
333 5% 73%  
334 6% 68%  
335 3% 62%  
336 2% 59%  
337 5% 57%  
338 5% 52% Median
339 5% 47%  
340 1.3% 42%  
341 4% 40%  
342 4% 37%  
343 6% 33%  
344 5% 26%  
345 1.4% 21%  
346 2% 20%  
347 1.3% 18%  
348 3% 17%  
349 2% 14%  
350 2% 11%  
351 0.2% 9%  
352 0.8% 9%  
353 3% 8%  
354 1.0% 5%  
355 0.8% 4% Majority
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.9% 2%  
359 0.7% 1.5%  
360 0.2% 0.8%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0.2% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0.4% 99.3%  
320 0.1% 98.9%  
321 0.8% 98.8%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 0.3% 97%  
324 1.0% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 6% 95%  
327 3% 89%  
328 1.1% 85%  
329 3% 84%  
330 3% 81%  
331 2% 78%  
332 6% 76%  
333 3% 70%  
334 1.5% 67%  
335 2% 66%  
336 5% 64%  
337 5% 58%  
338 6% 54% Median
339 5% 47%  
340 5% 43%  
341 2% 38%  
342 2% 36%  
343 3% 34%  
344 6% 31%  
345 4% 25%  
346 1.2% 21%  
347 3% 20%  
348 5% 17%  
349 2% 12%  
350 3% 10%  
351 1.1% 7%  
352 1.0% 6%  
353 0.8% 5%  
354 1.1% 5%  
355 1.0% 3% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.7% 1.4%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.9% 99.5%  
291 1.1% 98.6%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 2% 97%  
294 5% 95%  
295 0.9% 89%  
296 5% 88%  
297 3% 83%  
298 4% 81%  
299 2% 76%  
300 3% 74%  
301 3% 71%  
302 2% 68%  
303 1.0% 66%  
304 2% 65%  
305 1.0% 63%  
306 0.8% 62%  
307 0.5% 61%  
308 1.2% 61%  
309 3% 59% Median
310 2% 56%  
311 3% 54%  
312 6% 51%  
313 2% 45%  
314 7% 42%  
315 8% 35%  
316 3% 28%  
317 3% 25%  
318 6% 21%  
319 4% 15%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 2% 7%  
323 1.1% 5%  
324 3% 4%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.1% 1.1%  
327 0.5% 1.0%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.4% 99.5%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.8% 98.8%  
283 0.9% 98%  
284 1.3% 97%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 0.8% 95%  
287 0.9% 94%  
288 2% 93%  
289 2% 91%  
290 2% 89%  
291 3% 87%  
292 3% 85%  
293 1.2% 82%  
294 3% 81%  
295 6% 78%  
296 2% 72%  
297 5% 70%  
298 3% 65%  
299 5% 63%  
300 2% 58%  
301 6% 57%  
302 2% 51% Median
303 4% 50%  
304 4% 45%  
305 4% 41%  
306 4% 38%  
307 6% 34%  
308 6% 28%  
309 0.9% 22%  
310 2% 21%  
311 1.4% 19%  
312 3% 17%  
313 2% 14%  
314 3% 12%  
315 6% 9%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.9% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0.3% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.3% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.2%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 1.2% 99.0%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 2% 98%  
270 2% 96%  
271 1.4% 94%  
272 1.1% 93%  
273 2% 92%  
274 1.0% 90%  
275 1.1% 89%  
276 6% 88%  
277 1.5% 82%  
278 2% 80%  
279 3% 78%  
280 3% 75%  
281 2% 72%  
282 4% 69%  
283 6% 65%  
284 2% 60%  
285 6% 57%  
286 4% 51% Median
287 4% 47%  
288 3% 43%  
289 2% 39%  
290 6% 37%  
291 4% 31%  
292 4% 27%  
293 1.4% 23%  
294 5% 22%  
295 1.1% 16%  
296 5% 15%  
297 3% 11%  
298 2% 7%  
299 0.6% 5%  
300 0.7% 4%  
301 0.8% 4%  
302 1.0% 3%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.6% 1.2%  
306 0.2% 0.7%  
307 0.2% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0.1% 100%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.1% 99.4%  
252 1.4% 99.3%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 1.2% 97%  
255 3% 96%  
256 0.3% 93%  
257 0.3% 93%  
258 0.3% 93%  
259 3% 92%  
260 1.4% 89%  
261 9% 88%  
262 5% 80%  
263 6% 75%  
264 7% 68%  
265 1.5% 62%  
266 1.1% 60%  
267 0.6% 59%  
268 1.3% 58%  
269 5% 57% Median
270 10% 52%  
271 4% 42%  
272 6% 38%  
273 7% 33%  
274 3% 26%  
275 0.7% 23%  
276 0.4% 23%  
277 0.6% 22%  
278 3% 22%  
279 3% 18%  
280 8% 15%  
281 2% 7%  
282 1.3% 5%  
283 1.2% 4%  
284 0.1% 3%  
285 0.1% 3%  
286 0.4% 3%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.7% 2%  
289 0.6% 1.4%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.3% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0.1% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.9%  
144 0.5% 99.5%  
145 0.2% 99.0%  
146 0.1% 98.8%  
147 0.3% 98.7%  
148 0.9% 98%  
149 3% 97%  
150 3% 94%  
151 0.4% 91%  
152 0.2% 91%  
153 0.7% 91%  
154 6% 90%  
155 9% 84%  
156 1.4% 75%  
157 0.3% 73%  
158 0.6% 73%  
159 9% 72%  
160 11% 63%  
161 9% 52% Median
162 5% 43%  
163 0.2% 39%  
164 2% 39%  
165 5% 36%  
166 11% 31%  
167 4% 20%  
168 0.2% 17%  
169 0.9% 17%  
170 5% 16%  
171 4% 11%  
172 2% 7%  
173 0.3% 5%  
174 0.1% 5%  
175 0.8% 5%  
176 2% 4%  
177 1.4% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0% 0.8%  
180 0.1% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.7%  
182 0.4% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.4% 99.8%  
145 0.4% 99.5%  
146 1.0% 99.1%  
147 1.4% 98%  
148 1.5% 97%  
149 1.1% 95%  
150 2% 94%  
151 0.4% 92%  
152 0.3% 91%  
153 0.2% 91%  
154 1.3% 91%  
155 1.0% 90%  
156 8% 89%  
157 7% 81%  
158 7% 73%  
159 12% 67%  
160 9% 55%  
161 8% 46% Median
162 5% 38%  
163 2% 34%  
164 1.0% 32%  
165 0.7% 31%  
166 2% 30%  
167 4% 29%  
168 4% 25%  
169 6% 21%  
170 2% 16%  
171 6% 13%  
172 0.9% 7%  
173 3% 6%  
174 1.1% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.2% 2%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0.1% 2%  
179 0.3% 1.5%  
180 0.5% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 0.7%  
182 0.3% 0.6%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations