Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 31 January–3 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 165 157–174 154–176 152–179 148–183
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 165 156–174 154–176 152–178 148–183
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 98–112 96–115 94–116 91–120
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 98 91–105 89–107 87–109 84–113
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 61–74 60–76 59–77 56–80
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 48 44–53 42–55 41–56 39–59

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.3% 99.6%  
149 0.4% 99.3%  
150 0.4% 98.9%  
151 0.8% 98.5%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 1.1% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 2% 94%  
156 2% 92%  
157 5% 90%  
158 2% 86%  
159 5% 83%  
160 6% 79%  
161 4% 73%  
162 5% 69%  
163 7% 64%  
164 4% 57%  
165 8% 53% Median
166 5% 45%  
167 5% 40%  
168 5% 35%  
169 5% 30%  
170 4% 25%  
171 5% 22%  
172 3% 16%  
173 3% 13%  
174 3% 11%  
175 2% 8%  
176 2% 6%  
177 1.5% 5%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.3% 1.2%  
182 0.4% 0.9%  
183 0.1% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.5% 99.0%  
151 0.7% 98%  
152 1.4% 98%  
153 1.1% 96%  
154 1.4% 95%  
155 2% 94%  
156 2% 92%  
157 2% 90%  
158 4% 87%  
159 5% 84%  
160 4% 79%  
161 7% 75%  
162 4% 68%  
163 4% 63%  
164 5% 59%  
165 5% 54% Median
166 5% 49%  
167 7% 44%  
168 6% 37%  
169 6% 31%  
170 6% 25%  
171 3% 19%  
172 2% 16%  
173 3% 14%  
174 3% 11%  
175 2% 8%  
176 2% 6%  
177 1.2% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.5% 2%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.3% 1.2%  
182 0.2% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.5% 99.3%  
93 0.7% 98.8%  
94 1.0% 98% Last Result
95 2% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 93%  
98 4% 91%  
99 3% 87%  
100 5% 84%  
101 7% 79%  
102 6% 72%  
103 6% 66%  
104 6% 61%  
105 9% 54% Median
106 6% 45%  
107 5% 39%  
108 8% 34%  
109 4% 26%  
110 4% 22%  
111 4% 17%  
112 4% 13%  
113 3% 10%  
114 1.3% 7%  
115 2% 6%  
116 1.0% 3%  
117 0.6% 2%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.4% 99.3%  
86 0.6% 98.9%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 4% 91%  
92 5% 87%  
93 4% 82%  
94 5% 78%  
95 6% 72%  
96 7% 67%  
97 7% 60%  
98 7% 52% Median
99 10% 45%  
100 6% 35%  
101 5% 29%  
102 5% 24%  
103 4% 19%  
104 4% 15%  
105 3% 12%  
106 3% 9%  
107 2% 6%  
108 1.2% 4%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.5% 1.3%  
112 0.3% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.6%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.3%  
58 0.7% 98.8%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 5% 89%  
63 5% 84%  
64 5% 79%  
65 5% 74%  
66 8% 69%  
67 10% 61%  
68 11% 51% Median
69 9% 40%  
70 7% 31%  
71 5% 24%  
72 4% 19%  
73 4% 16%  
74 3% 12%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 1.0% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 5% 91%  
56 6% 86%  
57 8% 80%  
58 7% 72%  
59 10% 64%  
60 8% 54% Median
61 7% 46%  
62 9% 39%  
63 7% 30%  
64 6% 23%  
65 5% 17%  
66 3% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.2% 4% Last Result
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 1.0% 99.2%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 4% 94%  
44 6% 90%  
45 8% 84%  
46 8% 76% Last Result
47 10% 68%  
48 9% 58% Median
49 12% 49%  
50 9% 37%  
51 8% 28%  
52 6% 20%  
53 4% 14%  
54 3% 10%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.4%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 476 100% 466–485 464–489 461–491 456–495
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 446 100% 436–456 433–459 431–461 426–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 376–396 373–399 370–402 365–406
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 378 99.8% 368–389 365–391 363–394 358–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 379 99.9% 368–389 366–392 363–394 358–399
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.1% 320–341 317–344 314–346 310–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 313–333 310–336 307–339 303–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 319 0% 308–329 305–332 303–334 298–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 311 0% 301–321 298–324 296–327 291–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 281 0% 271–291 268–294 266–296 261–301
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 253–273 250–276 247–278 243–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 157–174 154–177 152–179 148–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 158 0% 149–166 147–169 145–171 141–175

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.2% 99.7%  
457 0.3% 99.5%  
458 0.3% 99.2%  
459 0.4% 98.9%  
460 0.4% 98.5%  
461 0.6% 98%  
462 1.0% 97%  
463 1.2% 96%  
464 2% 95%  
465 2% 93%  
466 1.5% 91% Last Result
467 2% 90%  
468 3% 88%  
469 4% 85%  
470 4% 81%  
471 5% 78%  
472 4% 72%  
473 4% 68%  
474 3% 64%  
475 6% 60%  
476 6% 55% Median
477 6% 49%  
478 7% 43%  
479 5% 36%  
480 4% 32%  
481 4% 28%  
482 3% 25%  
483 5% 21%  
484 4% 17%  
485 3% 13%  
486 2% 10%  
487 1.3% 8%  
488 1.3% 7%  
489 2% 5%  
490 0.9% 4%  
491 0.8% 3%  
492 0.6% 2%  
493 0.3% 1.3%  
494 0.3% 1.0%  
495 0.2% 0.7%  
496 0.2% 0.5%  
497 0.1% 0.3%  
498 0.1% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.2% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.5%  
427 0.2% 99.3%  
428 0.4% 99.1%  
429 0.4% 98.7%  
430 0.5% 98%  
431 1.1% 98%  
432 0.9% 97%  
433 2% 96%  
434 1.5% 94%  
435 2% 93%  
436 2% 91%  
437 3% 89%  
438 3% 86%  
439 3% 83%  
440 5% 80%  
441 4% 76%  
442 4% 72%  
443 5% 68%  
444 5% 63%  
445 4% 58%  
446 8% 54% Median
447 4% 46%  
448 6% 42%  
449 4% 36%  
450 4% 32%  
451 4% 28%  
452 4% 24%  
453 3% 20%  
454 4% 17%  
455 3% 13%  
456 2% 10%  
457 2% 8%  
458 2% 7%  
459 1.4% 5%  
460 0.6% 4%  
461 0.9% 3%  
462 0.7% 2%  
463 0.5% 2%  
464 0.3% 1.1%  
465 0.2% 0.7%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.6%  
366 0.2% 99.5%  
367 0.4% 99.3%  
368 0.3% 98.9%  
369 0.5% 98.6%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 0.7% 97%  
372 1.4% 97%  
373 1.2% 95%  
374 2% 94%  
375 2% 92%  
376 2% 90%  
377 3% 89%  
378 2% 86%  
379 5% 83%  
380 4% 79%  
381 3% 75%  
382 5% 72%  
383 6% 67%  
384 3% 61%  
385 5% 58%  
386 4% 53% Median
387 5% 49%  
388 5% 44%  
389 4% 39%  
390 4% 34%  
391 6% 30%  
392 4% 24%  
393 4% 21%  
394 3% 17%  
395 3% 14%  
396 2% 11%  
397 1.5% 9%  
398 2% 8%  
399 1.2% 6%  
400 1.0% 5%  
401 1.0% 4%  
402 0.6% 3%  
403 0.6% 2%  
404 0.4% 1.4%  
405 0.3% 1.0%  
406 0.2% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.5%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.4% 99.1%  
361 0.4% 98.7%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.9% 98%  
364 0.7% 97%  
365 2% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 2% 91%  
369 2% 89%  
370 3% 87%  
371 4% 84%  
372 4% 81%  
373 4% 76%  
374 4% 73%  
375 4% 69%  
376 6% 65%  
377 4% 59%  
378 5% 54% Median
379 5% 49%  
380 4% 44%  
381 4% 40%  
382 5% 35%  
383 5% 31%  
384 4% 26%  
385 3% 22%  
386 3% 19%  
387 2% 16%  
388 3% 13%  
389 2% 10%  
390 2% 8%  
391 1.3% 6%  
392 0.9% 5%  
393 1.2% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.3% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.2%  
361 0.3% 98.8%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 0.6% 98%  
364 0.9% 97%  
365 1.0% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 1.2% 94%  
368 3% 92%  
369 2% 89%  
370 3% 88%  
371 3% 85%  
372 3% 82%  
373 5% 79%  
374 4% 74%  
375 4% 70%  
376 4% 66%  
377 5% 62%  
378 4% 57%  
379 7% 53% Median
380 4% 46%  
381 5% 42%  
382 4% 37%  
383 5% 33%  
384 3% 28%  
385 6% 25%  
386 3% 19%  
387 3% 17%  
388 2% 13%  
389 3% 11%  
390 1.5% 8%  
391 2% 7%  
392 0.8% 5%  
393 1.2% 4%  
394 1.0% 3%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.3% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0.2% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.2% 99.3%  
312 0.5% 99.1%  
313 0.3% 98.6%  
314 0.9% 98%  
315 0.6% 97%  
316 0.9% 97%  
317 2% 96%  
318 1.2% 94%  
319 1.5% 93%  
320 2% 92%  
321 3% 89%  
322 3% 86%  
323 4% 83%  
324 3% 79%  
325 5% 76%  
326 5% 71%  
327 5% 66%  
328 5% 62%  
329 4% 56%  
330 4% 52%  
331 5% 48% Median
332 3% 43%  
333 4% 40%  
334 3% 36%  
335 5% 32%  
336 3% 27%  
337 4% 24%  
338 3% 19%  
339 2% 16%  
340 2% 13%  
341 2% 11%  
342 2% 8%  
343 2% 7%  
344 1.4% 5%  
345 0.8% 4%  
346 0.9% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.5% 1.2%  
350 0.2% 0.7%  
351 0.2% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.3%  
305 0.4% 99.0%  
306 0.6% 98.6%  
307 0.6% 98%  
308 1.0% 97%  
309 1.0% 96%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 2% 94%  
312 1.5% 92%  
313 2% 91%  
314 3% 89%  
315 3% 86%  
316 4% 83%  
317 4% 79%  
318 6% 76%  
319 4% 70%  
320 4% 66%  
321 5% 61%  
322 5% 56%  
323 4% 51% Median
324 5% 47%  
325 3% 42%  
326 6% 39%  
327 5% 33%  
328 3% 28%  
329 4% 25%  
330 5% 21%  
331 2% 17%  
332 3% 14%  
333 2% 11%  
334 2% 10%  
335 2% 8%  
336 1.2% 6%  
337 1.4% 5%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.8% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.4%  
342 0.4% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.2%  
301 0.7% 98.9%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 1.0% 98%  
304 0.8% 97%  
305 1.4% 96%  
306 2% 95%  
307 2% 93%  
308 3% 92%  
309 3% 89%  
310 2% 86%  
311 2% 83%  
312 4% 81%  
313 4% 76%  
314 4% 72%  
315 4% 68%  
316 4% 64%  
317 5% 61%  
318 4% 56% Median
319 5% 51%  
320 5% 46%  
321 5% 41%  
322 5% 36%  
323 4% 32%  
324 6% 28%  
325 3% 22%  
326 3% 19%  
327 3% 15%  
328 3% 13%  
329 1.3% 10%  
330 2% 9%  
331 0.9% 6%  
332 1.5% 5%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 1.0% 3%  
335 0.7% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.1%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.3% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.4% 99.1%  
294 0.5% 98.7%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 1.1% 97%  
298 1.2% 96%  
299 2% 94%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 89%  
303 3% 86%  
304 3% 83%  
305 5% 80%  
306 3% 76%  
307 4% 72%  
308 4% 68%  
309 5% 64%  
310 6% 59%  
311 4% 54% Median
312 5% 49%  
313 6% 44%  
314 4% 39%  
315 5% 34%  
316 4% 30%  
317 4% 26%  
318 4% 22%  
319 4% 18%  
320 2% 14%  
321 3% 12%  
322 2% 9%  
323 2% 7%  
324 1.2% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 1.0% 4%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.3% 1.4%  
330 0.3% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.2% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.3% 99.4%  
263 0.3% 99.1%  
264 0.5% 98.8%  
265 0.7% 98%  
266 0.8% 98%  
267 1.0% 97%  
268 1.3% 96%  
269 1.4% 95%  
270 2% 93%  
271 2% 91%  
272 4% 89%  
273 3% 86%  
274 4% 82%  
275 3% 79%  
276 4% 76%  
277 5% 72%  
278 5% 67%  
279 4% 62%  
280 4% 58%  
281 6% 53% Median
282 3% 47%  
283 6% 44%  
284 5% 38%  
285 5% 34%  
286 5% 28%  
287 3% 23%  
288 4% 20%  
289 2% 16%  
290 3% 14%  
291 2% 11%  
292 2% 9%  
293 1.0% 7%  
294 1.4% 6%  
295 1.1% 4%  
296 1.0% 3%  
297 0.7% 2%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.4% 1.2%  
300 0.2% 0.8%  
301 0.2% 0.7%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.3% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.1%  
246 0.6% 98.8%  
247 0.8% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 1.3% 97%  
250 0.9% 95%  
251 2% 94%  
252 1.4% 93%  
253 3% 91%  
254 2% 89%  
255 5% 87%  
256 2% 81%  
257 5% 79%  
258 3% 74%  
259 8% 71%  
260 3% 63%  
261 6% 61%  
262 3% 54%  
263 6% 51% Median
264 3% 46%  
265 6% 43%  
266 3% 37%  
267 8% 34%  
268 4% 26%  
269 4% 23%  
270 3% 18%  
271 3% 15%  
272 2% 12%  
273 3% 11%  
274 1.4% 8%  
275 1.3% 7%  
276 1.4% 5%  
277 1.1% 4%  
278 0.7% 3%  
279 0.6% 2%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.4% 1.2%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.2% 0.6%  
284 0.2% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.4% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.1%  
151 0.6% 98.8%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 1.1% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 2% 94%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 90%  
158 3% 87%  
159 4% 84%  
160 3% 80%  
161 5% 76%  
162 5% 71%  
163 6% 66%  
164 5% 60%  
165 5% 55%  
166 7% 50% Median
167 6% 43%  
168 5% 37%  
169 5% 32%  
170 4% 27%  
171 4% 23%  
172 4% 19%  
173 3% 15%  
174 3% 12%  
175 2% 9%  
176 2% 7%  
177 1.2% 5%  
178 1.3% 4%  
179 0.6% 3%  
180 0.7% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.4%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.3% 99.7%  
142 0.4% 99.4%  
143 0.2% 99.0%  
144 0.5% 98.8%  
145 1.1% 98%  
146 0.7% 97%  
147 2% 96%  
148 3% 95%  
149 2% 91%  
150 1.3% 89%  
151 5% 88%  
152 4% 83%  
153 2% 79%  
154 5% 77%  
155 9% 72%  
156 4% 64%  
157 6% 59%  
158 11% 54% Median
159 4% 43%  
160 3% 39%  
161 7% 36%  
162 6% 30%  
163 2% 24%  
164 4% 21%  
165 6% 17%  
166 2% 12%  
167 2% 10%  
168 3% 8%  
169 1.2% 6%  
170 0.7% 5%  
171 2% 4%  
172 0.8% 2%  
173 0.3% 1.5%  
174 0.4% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations