Opinion Poll by Kantar, 30 January–5 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.6–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 170 159–180 157–184 156–187 151–189
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 148 141–158 139–161 136–163 132–167
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 111 102–120 101–123 99–125 96–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 105–119 102–121 100–124 96–127
Die Linke 69 68 60–74 59–76 58–78 55–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–66 53–68 51–70 48–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 34–45 33–46 32–47 30–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0.1% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0% 99.5%  
152 0.1% 99.5%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.6% 99.2%  
155 0.4% 98.6%  
156 3% 98%  
157 2% 95%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 91%  
160 2% 89%  
161 1.2% 87%  
162 0.7% 86%  
163 2% 85%  
164 4% 83%  
165 2% 78%  
166 9% 76%  
167 10% 67%  
168 3% 56%  
169 4% 54%  
170 7% 50% Median
171 1.2% 43%  
172 1.3% 42%  
173 3% 41%  
174 5% 37%  
175 2% 32%  
176 12% 30%  
177 4% 18%  
178 2% 14%  
179 2% 13%  
180 4% 11%  
181 0.3% 6%  
182 0.3% 6%  
183 0.7% 6%  
184 1.2% 5%  
185 0.3% 4%  
186 0.4% 4%  
187 2% 3%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.3% 0.4%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.3% 99.7%  
133 0.2% 99.4%  
134 0.3% 99.2%  
135 0.9% 98.9%  
136 0.6% 98%  
137 0.6% 97%  
138 1.2% 97%  
139 2% 96%  
140 3% 94%  
141 6% 90%  
142 2% 84%  
143 5% 82%  
144 5% 77%  
145 4% 72%  
146 5% 68%  
147 4% 63%  
148 11% 59% Median
149 5% 47%  
150 5% 42%  
151 4% 37%  
152 7% 33%  
153 6% 26%  
154 4% 20%  
155 3% 16%  
156 2% 13%  
157 1.0% 11%  
158 2% 10%  
159 2% 8%  
160 1.4% 6%  
161 1.4% 5%  
162 0.8% 4%  
163 0.6% 3%  
164 0.8% 2%  
165 0.3% 1.4%  
166 0.1% 1.0%  
167 0.6% 1.0%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.8% 99.5%  
98 0.1% 98.7%  
99 2% 98.6%  
100 0.9% 96%  
101 0.4% 95%  
102 5% 95%  
103 2% 90%  
104 2% 88%  
105 6% 86%  
106 2% 81%  
107 12% 79%  
108 4% 67%  
109 2% 63%  
110 8% 61%  
111 7% 54% Median
112 4% 47%  
113 3% 43%  
114 7% 40%  
115 3% 33%  
116 4% 31%  
117 8% 27%  
118 3% 19%  
119 4% 16%  
120 2% 12%  
121 1.3% 10%  
122 3% 8%  
123 1.5% 6%  
124 0.4% 4%  
125 1.3% 4%  
126 0.9% 2%  
127 0.1% 2%  
128 1.0% 1.5%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0% 0.3%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
95 0.3% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.3%  
98 0.3% 99.2%  
99 0.9% 98.9%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 0.7% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 2% 87%  
107 5% 85%  
108 11% 79%  
109 4% 68%  
110 3% 64%  
111 3% 61%  
112 3% 58%  
113 6% 55% Median
114 16% 49%  
115 8% 33%  
116 3% 25%  
117 2% 22%  
118 8% 20%  
119 4% 13%  
120 3% 9%  
121 1.4% 6%  
122 0.5% 5%  
123 1.1% 4%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 1.0% 2%  
126 0.4% 1.0%  
127 0.3% 0.7%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.4%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 4% 97%  
60 4% 93%  
61 3% 88%  
62 2% 85%  
63 3% 83%  
64 6% 80%  
65 11% 74%  
66 7% 63%  
67 3% 56%  
68 10% 53% Median
69 14% 43% Last Result
70 7% 30%  
71 1.2% 22%  
72 4% 21%  
73 5% 17%  
74 5% 12%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.4% 6%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.5% 3%  
79 0.3% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 1.4% 98.7%  
52 2% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 2% 92%  
55 3% 89%  
56 5% 86%  
57 9% 81%  
58 8% 72%  
59 12% 64%  
60 9% 52% Median
61 6% 43%  
62 7% 36%  
63 7% 30%  
64 6% 23%  
65 5% 16%  
66 4% 12%  
67 2% 7%  
68 1.4% 5%  
69 1.2% 4%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 1.2% 99.2%  
32 2% 98%  
33 3% 96%  
34 4% 93%  
35 8% 89%  
36 14% 81%  
37 7% 67%  
38 8% 60%  
39 5% 51% Median
40 7% 47%  
41 9% 40%  
42 10% 31%  
43 6% 20%  
44 2% 14%  
45 4% 12%  
46 3% 8% Last Result
47 3% 5%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.7%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 468 100% 460–479 457–483 456–485 449–491
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 419 100% 408–428 403–430 402–434 397–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 381 99.9% 369–391 366–393 365–399 357–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 99.9% 371–392 367–394 365–395 358–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 358 66% 348–369 345–372 343–374 337–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0.1% 317–338 315–342 314–344 307–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 319 0% 308–332 306–336 302–339 300–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 321 0% 310–331 306–335 304–337 299–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 321 0% 310–333 308–335 304–336 300–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 269 0% 259–279 256–282 254–285 249–291
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 260 0% 250–272 247–275 245–277 240–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–188 167–191 165–193 161–198
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 171 0% 161–183 159–186 157–188 153–191

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
444 0.1% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.2% 99.7%  
450 0.1% 99.4%  
451 0.1% 99.3%  
452 0.6% 99.3%  
453 0.5% 98.7%  
454 0.2% 98%  
455 0.4% 98%  
456 2% 98%  
457 2% 96%  
458 0.3% 94%  
459 2% 93%  
460 3% 92%  
461 2% 88%  
462 0.7% 86%  
463 3% 85%  
464 9% 83%  
465 4% 74%  
466 2% 70% Last Result
467 13% 68%  
468 5% 55% Median
469 3% 50%  
470 3% 47%  
471 6% 44%  
472 9% 38%  
473 1.3% 28%  
474 3% 27%  
475 6% 24%  
476 3% 18%  
477 1.1% 15%  
478 1.3% 14%  
479 4% 13%  
480 0.9% 9%  
481 0.9% 8%  
482 0.8% 7%  
483 1.4% 6%  
484 2% 5%  
485 0.2% 3%  
486 0.2% 2%  
487 0.6% 2%  
488 0.5% 1.4%  
489 0.1% 0.9%  
490 0.1% 0.9%  
491 0.5% 0.7%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0.1% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.7%  
396 0% 99.6%  
397 0.1% 99.6%  
398 0.1% 99.5%  
399 0.3% 99.4%  
400 0.9% 99.1%  
401 0.4% 98%  
402 2% 98%  
403 1.0% 96%  
404 0.5% 95%  
405 0.7% 94%  
406 0.4% 94%  
407 0.6% 93%  
408 3% 93%  
409 2% 90%  
410 8% 88%  
411 7% 80%  
412 5% 73%  
413 0.8% 68%  
414 2% 67%  
415 0.7% 65%  
416 4% 64%  
417 7% 61% Median
418 3% 54%  
419 11% 51%  
420 4% 39%  
421 5% 35%  
422 3% 31%  
423 3% 27%  
424 0.9% 24%  
425 3% 23%  
426 1.3% 20%  
427 5% 19%  
428 5% 13%  
429 2% 8%  
430 2% 7%  
431 0.3% 5%  
432 0.5% 4%  
433 0.9% 4%  
434 0.5% 3%  
435 0.9% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.4% 1.3%  
438 0.4% 0.9%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.3% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0% 99.1%  
361 0.1% 99.0%  
362 0.4% 98.9%  
363 0.4% 98.5%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.9% 98%  
366 3% 97%  
367 0.9% 94%  
368 2% 93%  
369 5% 91%  
370 2% 86%  
371 1.2% 84%  
372 0.6% 83%  
373 2% 83%  
374 1.0% 81%  
375 4% 80%  
376 3% 76%  
377 4% 73%  
378 9% 69%  
379 4% 60%  
380 4% 56% Median
381 6% 52%  
382 5% 45%  
383 5% 40%  
384 0.8% 36%  
385 0.9% 35%  
386 6% 34%  
387 3% 28%  
388 4% 25%  
389 5% 21%  
390 4% 16%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 3% 8%  
394 1.0% 5%  
395 0.1% 4%  
396 0.3% 4%  
397 0.4% 3%  
398 0.3% 3%  
399 0.6% 3%  
400 0.7% 2%  
401 0.6% 1.4%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.4% 0.7%  
404 0.2% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.2% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.7%  
359 0.3% 99.5%  
360 0.1% 99.1%  
361 0.2% 99.1%  
362 0.2% 98.9%  
363 0.2% 98.6%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 1.2% 98%  
366 2% 97%  
367 0.7% 95%  
368 1.3% 94%  
369 1.5% 93%  
370 0.6% 91%  
371 1.3% 91%  
372 1.0% 90%  
373 2% 89%  
374 6% 87%  
375 3% 81%  
376 6% 78%  
377 5% 72%  
378 3% 67%  
379 3% 64%  
380 2% 61%  
381 7% 60%  
382 4% 52% Median
383 9% 48%  
384 3% 39%  
385 8% 36%  
386 3% 28%  
387 5% 25%  
388 1.3% 20%  
389 1.4% 19%  
390 2% 17%  
391 4% 15%  
392 2% 11%  
393 2% 9%  
394 4% 8%  
395 1.1% 3%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.2% 1.3%  
400 0.3% 1.1%  
401 0.2% 0.8%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.2% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.2% 99.4%  
339 0.2% 99.2%  
340 0.6% 99.0%  
341 0.6% 98%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.3% 98%  
344 2% 97%  
345 1.1% 96%  
346 2% 94%  
347 2% 92%  
348 1.1% 90%  
349 4% 89%  
350 6% 85%  
351 2% 79%  
352 2% 76%  
353 3% 75%  
354 6% 72%  
355 10% 66% Majority
356 1.1% 56%  
357 4% 55% Median
358 3% 51%  
359 3% 48%  
360 14% 45%  
361 2% 31%  
362 1.2% 29%  
363 4% 28%  
364 2% 24%  
365 5% 22%  
366 2% 16%  
367 1.3% 15%  
368 3% 13%  
369 3% 10%  
370 1.1% 7%  
371 0.6% 6%  
372 0.9% 5%  
373 0.8% 4%  
374 1.1% 3%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.4% 1.4%  
379 0.4% 1.0%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.2% 99.8%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.3% 99.2%  
310 0.2% 98.9%  
311 0.2% 98.7%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 1.1% 98%  
315 4% 97%  
316 2% 92%  
317 2% 91%  
318 4% 89%  
319 2% 85%  
320 1.4% 83%  
321 1.3% 81%  
322 5% 80%  
323 3% 75%  
324 8% 72%  
325 3% 64%  
326 9% 61%  
327 4% 52% Median
328 7% 48%  
329 2% 40%  
330 3% 39%  
331 3% 36%  
332 5% 33%  
333 6% 28%  
334 3% 22%  
335 6% 19%  
336 2% 13%  
337 1.0% 11%  
338 1.3% 10%  
339 0.6% 9%  
340 1.5% 9%  
341 1.3% 7%  
342 0.7% 6%  
343 2% 5%  
344 1.2% 3%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.4%  
348 0.2% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 0.9%  
350 0.3% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.2% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
301 0.2% 99.0%  
302 1.4% 98.8%  
303 0.4% 97%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 1.2% 97%  
306 1.5% 96%  
307 0.9% 94%  
308 4% 93%  
309 2% 89%  
310 0.4% 87%  
311 2% 87%  
312 5% 84%  
313 1.4% 80%  
314 8% 78%  
315 3% 70%  
316 3% 67%  
317 2% 64%  
318 6% 62%  
319 6% 55% Median
320 3% 50%  
321 5% 47%  
322 2% 42%  
323 5% 40%  
324 4% 36%  
325 2% 32%  
326 3% 30%  
327 5% 27%  
328 2% 22%  
329 2% 19%  
330 2% 17%  
331 3% 15%  
332 3% 12%  
333 1.3% 9%  
334 1.0% 8%  
335 1.2% 7%  
336 0.8% 6%  
337 1.3% 5%  
338 0.4% 4%  
339 2% 3%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.4% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.3% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.2% 99.2%  
302 0.4% 99.1%  
303 0.7% 98.6%  
304 0.9% 98%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 2% 93%  
309 1.1% 92%  
310 2% 90%  
311 0.9% 88%  
312 6% 87%  
313 2% 81%  
314 2% 79%  
315 2% 77%  
316 2% 75%  
317 3% 73%  
318 4% 70%  
319 12% 66%  
320 3% 54% Median
321 4% 51%  
322 5% 48%  
323 5% 43%  
324 4% 38%  
325 5% 34%  
326 8% 29%  
327 2% 21%  
328 3% 19%  
329 4% 16%  
330 1.0% 12%  
331 2% 11%  
332 1.4% 10%  
333 1.1% 8%  
334 1.4% 7%  
335 0.9% 6%  
336 2% 5%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.6% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.3% 1.0%  
343 0.4% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.2% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0.3% 99.4%  
302 0.7% 99.1%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.7% 98%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 0.5% 97%  
307 0.7% 96%  
308 1.0% 96%  
309 3% 95%  
310 4% 91%  
311 2% 88%  
312 4% 85%  
313 3% 81%  
314 1.3% 79%  
315 2% 77%  
316 1.1% 76%  
317 6% 75%  
318 3% 69%  
319 8% 66%  
320 8% 58%  
321 2% 50%  
322 2% 48% Median
323 5% 47%  
324 4% 42%  
325 3% 38%  
326 12% 35%  
327 3% 23%  
328 1.4% 20%  
329 0.5% 18%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 2% 17%  
332 1.0% 15%  
333 4% 14%  
334 4% 10%  
335 1.1% 6%  
336 3% 5%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
341 0.5% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.2% 0.5%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.6%  
250 0.3% 99.3%  
251 0.4% 99.0%  
252 0.8% 98.7%  
253 0.2% 98%  
254 0.7% 98%  
255 1.4% 97%  
256 1.2% 96%  
257 1.3% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 5% 91%  
260 2% 86%  
261 5% 85%  
262 3% 80%  
263 3% 77%  
264 3% 74%  
265 2% 71%  
266 2% 69%  
267 5% 67%  
268 3% 62%  
269 9% 59% Median
270 2% 50%  
271 9% 48%  
272 4% 39%  
273 7% 35%  
274 2% 27%  
275 4% 25%  
276 5% 21%  
277 1.4% 16%  
278 1.1% 15%  
279 5% 14%  
280 0.8% 9%  
281 1.5% 8%  
282 2% 7%  
283 0.7% 5%  
284 1.2% 4%  
285 0.6% 3%  
286 0.9% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.4%  
288 0.4% 1.2%  
289 0.1% 0.8%  
290 0.2% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.2% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.3% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.3%  
242 0.2% 99.3%  
243 0.7% 99.1%  
244 0.5% 98%  
245 1.4% 98%  
246 2% 97%  
247 0.8% 95%  
248 2% 94%  
249 0.9% 93%  
250 4% 92%  
251 2% 88%  
252 4% 86%  
253 3% 83%  
254 5% 80%  
255 8% 75%  
256 3% 67%  
257 3% 64%  
258 5% 61%  
259 2% 56% Median
260 6% 54%  
261 3% 48%  
262 6% 45%  
263 7% 39%  
264 5% 32%  
265 3% 27%  
266 2% 24%  
267 3% 22%  
268 2% 19%  
269 3% 17%  
270 2% 14%  
271 1.4% 12%  
272 2% 10%  
273 3% 9%  
274 0.9% 6%  
275 0.8% 5%  
276 2% 4%  
277 0.2% 3%  
278 0.5% 2%  
279 0.2% 2%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.4% 1.0%  
282 0.3% 0.7%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.4% 99.5%  
162 0.1% 99.1%  
163 0.3% 99.0%  
164 0.3% 98.7%  
165 2% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 3% 96%  
168 1.4% 93%  
169 3% 91%  
170 2% 88%  
171 2% 87%  
172 3% 85%  
173 7% 82%  
174 3% 75%  
175 3% 72%  
176 10% 69%  
177 3% 59%  
178 4% 56%  
179 3% 52% Median
180 7% 49%  
181 3% 41%  
182 5% 38%  
183 3% 33%  
184 6% 30%  
185 7% 24%  
186 3% 18%  
187 2% 15%  
188 3% 13%  
189 2% 9%  
190 2% 7%  
191 1.2% 5%  
192 0.6% 4%  
193 1.0% 3%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.7% 2%  
196 0.3% 1.2%  
197 0.3% 1.0%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.2% 0.4%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.3% 99.7%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.1%  
156 0.7% 98.8%  
157 0.9% 98%  
158 1.0% 97%  
159 2% 96%  
160 3% 94%  
161 2% 91%  
162 3% 89%  
163 2% 87%  
164 2% 84%  
165 3% 82%  
166 9% 79%  
167 5% 70%  
168 3% 64%  
169 4% 61%  
170 5% 57%  
171 3% 52% Median
172 6% 49%  
173 3% 43%  
174 4% 40%  
175 4% 36%  
176 4% 32%  
177 5% 29%  
178 3% 24%  
179 2% 21%  
180 3% 19%  
181 5% 16%  
182 1.2% 11%  
183 1.4% 10%  
184 2% 9%  
185 1.5% 7%  
186 0.9% 6%  
187 2% 5%  
188 0.7% 3%  
189 1.1% 2%  
190 0.1% 0.9%  
191 0.5% 0.8%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations