Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 7–10 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 167 158–174 155–175 152–178 149–182
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 156–173 153–176 152–178 148–183
Alternative für Deutschland 94 105 98–113 97–115 94–117 91–120
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 95 87–102 86–104 84–105 81–109
Die Linke 69 74 70–81 66–84 65–85 64–90
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 59 54–66 53–68 52–70 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 32–52

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.1% 99.6%  
149 0.6% 99.5%  
150 0.2% 98.9%  
151 1.0% 98.6%  
152 1.0% 98%  
153 0.5% 97%  
154 1.1% 96%  
155 0.5% 95%  
156 2% 95%  
157 2% 93%  
158 1.0% 91%  
159 3% 90%  
160 2% 87%  
161 2% 85%  
162 7% 83%  
163 3% 75%  
164 5% 73%  
165 7% 67%  
166 5% 60%  
167 14% 55% Median
168 3% 42%  
169 5% 39%  
170 5% 33%  
171 12% 28%  
172 3% 17%  
173 2% 13%  
174 5% 11%  
175 1.3% 6%  
176 1.1% 5%  
177 0.9% 4%  
178 0.9% 3%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.6% 1.4%  
181 0.1% 0.7%  
182 0.2% 0.6%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.3% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.3% 99.3%  
150 0.7% 99.0%  
151 0.6% 98%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 2% 97%  
154 1.0% 95%  
155 3% 94%  
156 1.4% 90%  
157 2% 89%  
158 3% 87%  
159 5% 85%  
160 2% 80%  
161 6% 78%  
162 4% 72%  
163 2% 68%  
164 9% 66%  
165 5% 57%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 9% 47%  
168 9% 38%  
169 9% 29%  
170 2% 21%  
171 3% 18%  
172 3% 15%  
173 3% 13%  
174 0.7% 10%  
175 2% 9%  
176 3% 7%  
177 2% 4%  
178 0.4% 3%  
179 0.8% 2%  
180 0.3% 1.4%  
181 0.3% 1.2%  
182 0.2% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.6%  
92 0.7% 99.4%  
93 0.4% 98.7%  
94 0.9% 98% Last Result
95 0.7% 97%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 3% 92%  
99 3% 89%  
100 6% 86%  
101 3% 80%  
102 3% 77%  
103 9% 73%  
104 4% 65%  
105 15% 61% Median
106 3% 46%  
107 10% 44%  
108 2% 34%  
109 6% 32%  
110 5% 27%  
111 5% 22%  
112 4% 17%  
113 6% 13%  
114 2% 8%  
115 2% 6%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.9% 3%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.2% 0.8%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 0.3% 99.4%  
83 1.3% 99.1%  
84 0.3% 98%  
85 1.4% 97%  
86 4% 96%  
87 3% 92%  
88 2% 89%  
89 3% 88%  
90 6% 84%  
91 9% 79%  
92 8% 70%  
93 4% 62%  
94 8% 58%  
95 7% 50% Median
96 7% 44%  
97 1.2% 36%  
98 13% 35%  
99 4% 22%  
100 6% 19%  
101 1.4% 12%  
102 4% 11%  
103 1.4% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.4% 4%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.9% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 2% 97%  
67 1.3% 95%  
68 1.5% 94%  
69 1.0% 92% Last Result
70 3% 91%  
71 12% 88%  
72 13% 76%  
73 10% 63%  
74 3% 53% Median
75 3% 50%  
76 3% 47%  
77 12% 44%  
78 7% 32%  
79 8% 25%  
80 6% 18%  
81 3% 12%  
82 1.1% 9%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.4%  
52 3% 98.9%  
53 2% 96%  
54 5% 95%  
55 2% 90%  
56 13% 88%  
57 8% 75%  
58 5% 66%  
59 17% 61% Median
60 3% 44%  
61 9% 41%  
62 5% 33%  
63 7% 27%  
64 8% 20%  
65 2% 13%  
66 3% 11%  
67 1.4% 8%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 1.4% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.4%  
34 0.5% 98.7%  
35 3% 98%  
36 4% 95%  
37 2% 91%  
38 9% 89%  
39 7% 80%  
40 5% 73%  
41 10% 68%  
42 13% 58% Median
43 6% 46%  
44 9% 40%  
45 13% 31%  
46 4% 18% Last Result
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 8%  
49 1.3% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.2%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 470 100% 459–476 456–479 452–481 448–486
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 434 100% 424–443 421–446 418–449 414–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 99.5% 364–383 362–389 361–391 355–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 375 98.9% 364–383 359–385 358–389 351–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 363 76% 350–369 348–375 347–378 343–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 336 0.5% 326–345 320–347 318–348 315–354
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 321 0% 312–333 309–336 306–336 300–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 315 0% 301–322 298–326 297–328 294–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 303 0% 291–312 289–315 285–316 282–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 268 0% 258–277 255–280 252–283 249–289
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 251–269 246–272 243–272 240–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 162–179 158–181 157–183 153–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 154 0% 146–164 144–166 141–168 138–173

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
442 0.1% 100%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.8%  
445 0% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.6%  
448 0.1% 99.5%  
449 0.1% 99.4%  
450 0.2% 99.3%  
451 0.3% 99.1%  
452 1.3% 98.8%  
453 1.1% 97%  
454 0.2% 96%  
455 1.1% 96%  
456 2% 95%  
457 2% 93%  
458 0.9% 91%  
459 3% 91%  
460 1.2% 87%  
461 4% 86%  
462 4% 82%  
463 4% 78%  
464 7% 74%  
465 2% 68%  
466 6% 66% Last Result
467 1.0% 60%  
468 2% 59%  
469 4% 57%  
470 11% 53% Median
471 6% 41%  
472 1.3% 36%  
473 3% 35%  
474 11% 32%  
475 4% 20%  
476 9% 16%  
477 0.8% 7%  
478 0.8% 6%  
479 2% 6%  
480 0.8% 4%  
481 0.6% 3%  
482 0.3% 2%  
483 0.2% 2%  
484 0.9% 2%  
485 0.4% 1.0%  
486 0.1% 0.6%  
487 0% 0.5%  
488 0.1% 0.5%  
489 0.2% 0.3%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0.1% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.4% 99.6%  
415 0.2% 99.2%  
416 0.6% 99.0%  
417 0.5% 98%  
418 0.5% 98%  
419 1.1% 97%  
420 0.9% 96%  
421 1.1% 95%  
422 2% 94%  
423 1.2% 92%  
424 2% 91%  
425 2% 89%  
426 4% 86%  
427 4% 82%  
428 5% 78%  
429 1.4% 73%  
430 5% 72%  
431 7% 67%  
432 1.2% 60%  
433 3% 59%  
434 11% 56% Median
435 4% 45%  
436 9% 41%  
437 3% 32%  
438 3% 30%  
439 4% 26%  
440 0.9% 22%  
441 1.2% 21%  
442 10% 20%  
443 3% 10%  
444 1.1% 7%  
445 0.7% 6%  
446 2% 5%  
447 1.1% 4%  
448 0.2% 3%  
449 0.2% 3%  
450 0.9% 2%  
451 0.6% 1.4%  
452 0.1% 0.8%  
453 0.1% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.6%  
455 0.3% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.5% Majority
356 0.2% 99.5%  
357 0.1% 99.3%  
358 0.1% 99.1%  
359 0.4% 99.0%  
360 0.7% 98.6%  
361 2% 98%  
362 3% 96%  
363 2% 93%  
364 4% 91%  
365 3% 87%  
366 3% 84%  
367 5% 81%  
368 2% 76%  
369 4% 75%  
370 5% 71%  
371 5% 66%  
372 10% 61% Median
373 3% 51%  
374 11% 48%  
375 9% 37%  
376 8% 28%  
377 4% 20%  
378 2% 16%  
379 2% 14%  
380 0.5% 12%  
381 0.4% 11%  
382 0.8% 11%  
383 0.2% 10%  
384 0.3% 10%  
385 0.4% 10%  
386 0.9% 9%  
387 1.1% 8%  
388 2% 7%  
389 2% 6%  
390 0.5% 4%  
391 1.1% 3%  
392 1.4% 2%  
393 0.2% 0.7%  
394 0.2% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0.1% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.3% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.4% 99.4%  
354 0% 99.0%  
355 0.1% 98.9% Majority
356 0.2% 98.9%  
357 0.6% 98.6%  
358 2% 98%  
359 2% 96%  
360 0.6% 95%  
361 0.4% 94%  
362 0.5% 94%  
363 2% 93%  
364 3% 91%  
365 5% 88%  
366 3% 83%  
367 1.1% 80%  
368 0.5% 78%  
369 3% 78%  
370 9% 75%  
371 6% 65%  
372 5% 59%  
373 1.1% 54%  
374 0.6% 53%  
375 3% 52% Median
376 7% 49%  
377 6% 42%  
378 12% 36%  
379 3% 24%  
380 0.4% 21%  
381 0.7% 20%  
382 2% 20%  
383 9% 18%  
384 3% 9%  
385 2% 6%  
386 0.7% 4%  
387 0.1% 3%  
388 0.1% 3%  
389 1.0% 3%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.6% 1.4%  
392 0.4% 0.9%  
393 0% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.6%  
344 0.4% 99.5%  
345 0.9% 99.1%  
346 0.3% 98%  
347 0.8% 98%  
348 3% 97%  
349 1.4% 94%  
350 2% 92%  
351 5% 90%  
352 2% 85%  
353 0.5% 83%  
354 7% 82%  
355 0.4% 76% Majority
356 1.5% 75%  
357 0.5% 74%  
358 2% 73%  
359 0.7% 71%  
360 4% 70%  
361 1.4% 66%  
362 14% 65% Median
363 5% 51%  
364 2% 46%  
365 11% 45%  
366 11% 34%  
367 4% 23%  
368 0.9% 19%  
369 9% 18%  
370 1.4% 10%  
371 1.2% 8%  
372 0.2% 7%  
373 1.2% 7%  
374 0.4% 6%  
375 0.4% 5%  
376 1.0% 5%  
377 0.8% 4%  
378 0.6% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.7% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.5%  
382 0.7% 1.1%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0.1% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0.1% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.2% 99.6%  
316 0.2% 99.5%  
317 1.4% 99.3%  
318 1.1% 98%  
319 0.5% 97%  
320 2% 96%  
321 2% 94%  
322 1.1% 93%  
323 0.9% 92%  
324 0.4% 91%  
325 0.3% 90%  
326 0.2% 90%  
327 0.8% 90%  
328 0.4% 89%  
329 0.5% 89%  
330 2% 88%  
331 2% 86%  
332 4% 84%  
333 8% 80%  
334 9% 72%  
335 11% 63%  
336 3% 52% Median
337 10% 49%  
338 5% 39%  
339 5% 34%  
340 4% 29%  
341 2% 25%  
342 5% 24%  
343 3% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 4% 13%  
346 2% 9%  
347 3% 7%  
348 2% 4%  
349 0.7% 2%  
350 0.4% 1.4%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.2% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.3%  
303 0.2% 99.2%  
304 0.7% 99.0%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.7% 97%  
308 1.5% 97%  
309 2% 95%  
310 2% 93%  
311 1.3% 91%  
312 3% 90%  
313 5% 87%  
314 2% 82%  
315 7% 81%  
316 2% 74%  
317 4% 72%  
318 8% 68%  
319 2% 60%  
320 1.2% 58%  
321 17% 57% Median
322 2% 41%  
323 6% 38%  
324 6% 32%  
325 4% 26%  
326 2% 23%  
327 3% 20%  
328 1.4% 17%  
329 2% 15%  
330 0.7% 13%  
331 1.2% 13%  
332 0.8% 12%  
333 3% 11%  
334 1.0% 8%  
335 0.9% 7%  
336 4% 6%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.8% 2%  
339 0.5% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.2% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.5% 99.4%  
296 0.9% 98.9%  
297 2% 98%  
298 2% 96%  
299 2% 94%  
300 2% 92%  
301 2% 90%  
302 5% 89%  
303 0.9% 84%  
304 1.3% 83%  
305 2% 82%  
306 0.9% 80%  
307 0.7% 79%  
308 2% 78%  
309 1.0% 76%  
310 1.1% 75%  
311 4% 74%  
312 7% 71%  
313 6% 64% Median
314 4% 58%  
315 14% 54%  
316 11% 40%  
317 5% 29%  
318 7% 25%  
319 4% 18%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 1.3% 10%  
323 1.0% 9%  
324 1.1% 8%  
325 2% 7%  
326 2% 5%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.6% 3%  
329 1.0% 2%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0.4% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.3% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0.7% 99.5%  
283 0.8% 98.8%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 1.1% 98%  
286 0.7% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.3% 96%  
289 4% 95%  
290 1.3% 91%  
291 1.0% 90%  
292 2% 89%  
293 3% 87%  
294 1.0% 84%  
295 3% 83%  
296 6% 80%  
297 2% 74%  
298 5% 72%  
299 5% 67%  
300 1.2% 62%  
301 1.3% 61%  
302 6% 59%  
303 12% 54% Median
304 1.1% 41%  
305 4% 40%  
306 2% 36%  
307 4% 34%  
308 6% 30%  
309 11% 24%  
310 1.1% 12%  
311 0.7% 11%  
312 2% 10%  
313 3% 8%  
314 0.3% 6%  
315 3% 6%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.5% 1.1%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.5% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 98.9%  
252 2% 98.7%  
253 0.9% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 2% 95%  
256 2% 93%  
257 0.4% 91%  
258 2% 91%  
259 3% 89%  
260 1.5% 85%  
261 5% 84%  
262 7% 79%  
263 2% 72%  
264 3% 70%  
265 6% 67%  
266 1.3% 62%  
267 10% 60% Median
268 4% 50%  
269 7% 46%  
270 2% 39%  
271 16% 37%  
272 4% 22%  
273 3% 17%  
274 2% 15%  
275 0.6% 12%  
276 0.9% 12%  
277 3% 11%  
278 0.9% 8%  
279 1.4% 7%  
280 2% 5%  
281 1.1% 4%  
282 0.1% 3%  
283 0.2% 3%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.1% 2%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.6% 1.4%  
288 0.2% 0.8%  
289 0.3% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0.1% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.2% 99.8%  
240 0.3% 99.6%  
241 0.6% 99.3%  
242 0.7% 98.6%  
243 0.6% 98%  
244 0.9% 97%  
245 0.8% 96%  
246 2% 96%  
247 1.0% 94%  
248 0.5% 93%  
249 0.9% 92%  
250 1.0% 91%  
251 1.1% 90%  
252 0.5% 89%  
253 0.3% 89%  
254 0.9% 88%  
255 2% 87%  
256 2% 86%  
257 7% 84%  
258 2% 77%  
259 8% 75%  
260 4% 67%  
261 8% 63%  
262 16% 55% Median
263 2% 38%  
264 5% 36%  
265 10% 31%  
266 3% 21%  
267 3% 18%  
268 4% 15%  
269 3% 11%  
270 2% 8%  
271 0.6% 6%  
272 3% 5%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 1.1% 2%  
275 0.1% 0.9%  
276 0.1% 0.8%  
277 0.1% 0.7%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.5% 99.7%  
154 0.5% 99.2%  
155 0.9% 98.7%  
156 0.3% 98%  
157 0.4% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.7% 95%  
160 3% 94%  
161 1.4% 91%  
162 1.0% 90%  
163 5% 89%  
164 9% 84%  
165 5% 75%  
166 3% 70%  
167 2% 67%  
168 4% 65%  
169 10% 61% Median
170 10% 51%  
171 7% 41%  
172 1.5% 34%  
173 3% 33%  
174 9% 30%  
175 3% 21%  
176 3% 18%  
177 1.3% 15%  
178 3% 14%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 3% 6%  
182 0.3% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.7% 2%  
186 0.5% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.5%  
139 0.3% 99.5%  
140 0.6% 99.2%  
141 1.3% 98.6%  
142 0.4% 97%  
143 0.3% 97%  
144 5% 97%  
145 1.0% 91%  
146 2% 90%  
147 1.0% 88%  
148 9% 88%  
149 0.9% 79%  
150 9% 78%  
151 2% 68%  
152 7% 66%  
153 1.4% 59%  
154 13% 58% Median
155 6% 45%  
156 2% 39%  
157 6% 37%  
158 4% 31%  
159 3% 27%  
160 4% 25%  
161 6% 21%  
162 4% 15%  
163 1.2% 11%  
164 2% 10%  
165 1.4% 8%  
166 3% 7%  
167 2% 4%  
168 0.3% 3%  
169 0.5% 2%  
170 0.7% 2%  
171 0.2% 0.9%  
172 0.2% 0.7%  
173 0.3% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations