Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 1–12 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.5–24.6% 21.1–25.0% 20.7–25.4% 20.0–26.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.3% 20.9–23.9% 20.5–24.4% 20.1–24.7% 19.4–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.2% 12.7–16.6% 12.1–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.2–15.0% 10.7–15.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.5–10.7% 8.2–11.0% 8.0–11.3% 7.6–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.8–10.5% 7.6–10.7% 7.1–11.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.1–6.5% 3.7–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 167 157–178 154–183 151–185 147–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 163 152–174 149–177 147–180 142–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 97–115 95–118 92–121 88–126
Alternative für Deutschland 94 95 87–104 84–107 82–109 78–114
Die Linke 69 69 62–78 60–80 58–82 55–86
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 66 59–74 57–76 55–78 52–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 35–47 34–49 33–51 30–54

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.3% 99.5%  
148 0.4% 99.3%  
149 0.5% 98.9%  
150 0.6% 98%  
151 0.8% 98%  
152 0.8% 97%  
153 0.7% 96%  
154 0.8% 95%  
155 1.3% 95%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 92%  
158 3% 88%  
159 4% 85%  
160 3% 82%  
161 3% 78%  
162 3% 75%  
163 2% 73%  
164 4% 70%  
165 5% 67%  
166 8% 62%  
167 5% 54% Median
168 5% 50%  
169 6% 44%  
170 3% 39%  
171 2% 36%  
172 2% 33%  
173 3% 31%  
174 5% 28%  
175 4% 23%  
176 4% 19%  
177 3% 15%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 1.1% 8%  
181 0.8% 7%  
182 0.9% 6%  
183 0.9% 5%  
184 1.3% 4%  
185 0.8% 3%  
186 0.8% 2%  
187 0.3% 1.4%  
188 0.3% 1.0%  
189 0.1% 0.7%  
190 0.1% 0.6%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.2% 99.5%  
143 0.3% 99.3%  
144 0.3% 99.0%  
145 0.5% 98.7%  
146 0.6% 98%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 0.9% 97%  
149 1.3% 96%  
150 1.2% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 2% 92%  
153 2% 90%  
154 2% 88%  
155 4% 85%  
156 4% 82%  
157 4% 78%  
158 4% 75%  
159 4% 70%  
160 5% 67%  
161 5% 62%  
162 4% 58%  
163 5% 53% Median
164 5% 48%  
165 5% 44%  
166 4% 38%  
167 4% 34%  
168 3% 31%  
169 5% 27%  
170 3% 23%  
171 3% 19%  
172 2% 16%  
173 3% 14%  
174 2% 11%  
175 2% 9%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.2% 6%  
178 1.1% 5%  
179 0.8% 4%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.3% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.3%  
184 0.3% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 0.4% 99.2%  
91 0.6% 98.7%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 0.9% 97%  
94 1.4% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 2% 93%  
97 3% 91%  
98 3% 88%  
99 3% 85%  
100 4% 81%  
101 4% 78%  
102 5% 73%  
103 6% 69%  
104 6% 63%  
105 6% 57%  
106 6% 52% Median
107 5% 46%  
108 5% 41%  
109 4% 36%  
110 5% 31%  
111 4% 26%  
112 4% 22%  
113 3% 17%  
114 3% 15%  
115 2% 11%  
116 2% 9%  
117 2% 7%  
118 1.1% 5%  
119 1.0% 4%  
120 0.7% 3%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.4%  
124 0.3% 1.0%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.5% 99.5%  
80 0.4% 99.0%  
81 0.7% 98.6%  
82 0.9% 98%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 94%  
86 2% 92%  
87 3% 90%  
88 3% 87%  
89 5% 84%  
90 4% 79%  
91 6% 75%  
92 6% 69%  
93 5% 63%  
94 5% 58% Last Result
95 5% 53% Median
96 7% 48%  
97 5% 42%  
98 6% 37%  
99 4% 31%  
100 5% 27%  
101 3% 21%  
102 4% 18%  
103 3% 14%  
104 2% 11%  
105 2% 9%  
106 1.4% 7%  
107 1.5% 5%  
108 0.8% 4%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 0.7% 2%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.2% 1.0%  
113 0.3% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.4%  
57 0.8% 99.0%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 1.1% 96%  
61 3% 95%  
62 3% 92%  
63 4% 89%  
64 3% 85%  
65 7% 81%  
66 5% 74%  
67 6% 69%  
68 6% 63%  
69 8% 57% Last Result, Median
70 5% 49%  
71 7% 44%  
72 6% 37%  
73 5% 31%  
74 5% 26%  
75 4% 21%  
76 4% 17%  
77 2% 13%  
78 3% 11%  
79 2% 8%  
80 1.4% 5%  
81 0.8% 4%  
82 1.1% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.4%  
85 0.2% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 0.5% 99.4%  
54 0.8% 98.9%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 1.0% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 4% 91%  
60 3% 87%  
61 5% 84%  
62 8% 79%  
63 4% 72%  
64 6% 68%  
65 7% 62%  
66 8% 55% Median
67 7% 47%  
68 5% 40%  
69 5% 34%  
70 7% 29%  
71 5% 23%  
72 3% 18%  
73 4% 15%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.4% 6%  
77 1.4% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 2% Last Result
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.4%  
32 1.3% 98.9%  
33 1.5% 98%  
34 3% 96%  
35 4% 93%  
36 5% 89%  
37 7% 84%  
38 7% 77%  
39 9% 70%  
40 7% 61%  
41 11% 54% Median
42 7% 43%  
43 9% 36%  
44 5% 27%  
45 6% 22%  
46 3% 16% Last Result
47 5% 12%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6%  
50 1.3% 4%  
51 1.0% 3%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 465–490 462–494 459–496 453–502
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 438 100% 425–450 422–454 419–457 413–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 376 98.6% 363–390 360–393 357–396 350–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 372 96% 359–385 355–388 352–391 346–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 366 87% 353–378 349–382 346–386 339–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 343 13% 331–356 327–360 323–363 318–370
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 340 8% 327–353 324–357 320–360 314–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 310 0% 297–323 294–327 291–330 285–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 299 0% 287–312 283–316 280–319 274–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 261–287 257–289 255–293 249–299
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 271 0% 258–283 254–286 251–289 245–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–187 162–191 159–193 154–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 161–183 158–187 156–190 151–195

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0.1% 99.8%  
452 0.1% 99.7%  
453 0.2% 99.6%  
454 0.2% 99.4%  
455 0.3% 99.3%  
456 0.2% 99.0%  
457 0.5% 98.8%  
458 0.3% 98%  
459 0.6% 98%  
460 0.9% 97%  
461 0.9% 96%  
462 0.9% 96%  
463 1.1% 95%  
464 2% 93%  
465 2% 92%  
466 1.4% 90% Last Result
467 2% 89%  
468 3% 87%  
469 3% 84%  
470 2% 81%  
471 3% 79%  
472 4% 76%  
473 4% 72%  
474 3% 68%  
475 5% 65%  
476 3% 60%  
477 4% 56% Median
478 5% 53%  
479 4% 47%  
480 4% 43%  
481 4% 39%  
482 4% 36%  
483 4% 31%  
484 3% 28%  
485 3% 24%  
486 4% 22%  
487 3% 18%  
488 2% 15%  
489 2% 13%  
490 2% 11%  
491 2% 9%  
492 2% 7%  
493 0.7% 6%  
494 1.3% 5%  
495 0.7% 4%  
496 0.9% 3%  
497 0.4% 2%  
498 0.5% 2%  
499 0.3% 1.3%  
500 0.3% 1.0%  
501 0.2% 0.7%  
502 0.2% 0.5%  
503 0.1% 0.4%  
504 0.1% 0.3%  
505 0.1% 0.2%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.1% 99.6%  
413 0.2% 99.5%  
414 0.2% 99.3%  
415 0.3% 99.1%  
416 0.3% 98.8%  
417 0.6% 98.5%  
418 0.4% 98%  
419 0.6% 98%  
420 0.8% 97%  
421 1.0% 96%  
422 0.7% 95%  
423 1.5% 94%  
424 1.5% 93%  
425 2% 91%  
426 2% 90%  
427 1.4% 88%  
428 2% 87%  
429 3% 85%  
430 3% 82%  
431 2% 79%  
432 4% 76%  
433 3% 72%  
434 4% 69%  
435 3% 65%  
436 4% 62%  
437 4% 58% Median
438 4% 54%  
439 4% 50%  
440 4% 46%  
441 3% 42%  
442 5% 39%  
443 4% 34%  
444 4% 29%  
445 2% 25%  
446 4% 23%  
447 4% 19%  
448 2% 16%  
449 2% 14%  
450 2% 12%  
451 1.3% 10%  
452 1.5% 8%  
453 1.3% 7%  
454 1.2% 6%  
455 1.0% 4%  
456 0.7% 3%  
457 0.5% 3%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.3% 1.3%  
461 0.2% 1.0%  
462 0.2% 0.8%  
463 0.1% 0.6%  
464 0.2% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.5%  
352 0.3% 99.4%  
353 0.2% 99.1%  
354 0.2% 98.9%  
355 0.5% 98.6% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.6% 97%  
359 1.3% 96%  
360 0.9% 95%  
361 1.2% 94%  
362 1.2% 93%  
363 2% 92%  
364 1.0% 90%  
365 3% 89%  
366 2% 86%  
367 3% 84%  
368 2% 81%  
369 4% 79%  
370 3% 75%  
371 3% 73%  
372 4% 70%  
373 4% 66%  
374 5% 62%  
375 2% 57%  
376 6% 54% Median
377 3% 48%  
378 3% 45%  
379 4% 42%  
380 5% 38%  
381 2% 33%  
382 5% 31%  
383 2% 26%  
384 2% 24%  
385 2% 22%  
386 4% 19%  
387 1.3% 15%  
388 2% 14%  
389 2% 12%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 8%  
392 1.2% 7%  
393 1.2% 6%  
394 0.7% 5%  
395 1.0% 4%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.2% 1.0%  
401 0.2% 0.8%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0.2% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.5%  
347 0.2% 99.4%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.3% 98.9%  
350 0.4% 98.6%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.7% 98%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 1.0% 97%  
355 1.2% 96% Majority
356 0.9% 94%  
357 2% 93%  
358 1.2% 92%  
359 2% 91%  
360 2% 89%  
361 2% 87%  
362 2% 85%  
363 3% 83%  
364 3% 80%  
365 4% 77%  
366 3% 74%  
367 3% 71%  
368 3% 68%  
369 4% 65%  
370 5% 61%  
371 3% 56% Median
372 5% 53%  
373 4% 48%  
374 4% 44%  
375 3% 40%  
376 5% 37%  
377 3% 32%  
378 3% 29%  
379 3% 26%  
380 3% 22%  
381 2% 19%  
382 3% 17%  
383 2% 14%  
384 2% 13%  
385 2% 10%  
386 1.3% 8%  
387 1.2% 7%  
388 0.8% 6%  
389 1.0% 5%  
390 0.8% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.2%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.2% 99.3%  
342 0.2% 99.2%  
343 0.3% 98.9%  
344 0.4% 98.6%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 1.1% 96%  
349 1.1% 95%  
350 0.9% 94%  
351 1.2% 93%  
352 0.9% 92%  
353 2% 91%  
354 3% 89%  
355 3% 87% Majority
356 2% 84%  
357 3% 82%  
358 4% 79%  
359 3% 75%  
360 3% 72%  
361 3% 69%  
362 3% 66%  
363 4% 63%  
364 5% 59%  
365 4% 55% Median
366 3% 51%  
367 5% 48%  
368 5% 43%  
369 4% 38%  
370 3% 34%  
371 3% 31%  
372 3% 28%  
373 2% 24%  
374 3% 22%  
375 2% 20%  
376 2% 17%  
377 3% 15%  
378 2% 12%  
379 2% 10%  
380 1.3% 8%  
381 0.9% 6%  
382 0.9% 5%  
383 1.0% 5%  
384 0.5% 4%  
385 0.4% 3%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.4% 1.5%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.3% 0.9%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.3% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.4% 98.9%  
322 0.6% 98.5%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.4% 97%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 1.0% 96%  
327 0.9% 95%  
328 0.9% 95%  
329 1.3% 94%  
330 2% 92%  
331 2% 90%  
332 3% 88%  
333 2% 85%  
334 2% 83%  
335 3% 80%  
336 2% 78%  
337 3% 76%  
338 3% 72%  
339 3% 69%  
340 4% 66%  
341 5% 62%  
342 5% 57% Median
343 3% 52%  
344 4% 49%  
345 5% 45%  
346 4% 41%  
347 3% 37%  
348 3% 34%  
349 3% 31%  
350 3% 28%  
351 4% 25%  
352 3% 21%  
353 2% 18%  
354 3% 16%  
355 3% 13% Majority
356 2% 11%  
357 0.9% 9%  
358 1.2% 8%  
359 0.9% 7%  
360 1.1% 6%  
361 1.1% 5%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.4%  
367 0.2% 1.1%  
368 0.2% 0.8%  
369 0.2% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.4%  
316 0.3% 99.3%  
317 0.3% 99.0%  
318 0.4% 98.7%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 1.0% 97%  
322 0.7% 96%  
323 0.7% 96%  
324 1.0% 95%  
325 1.2% 94%  
326 2% 93%  
327 2% 91%  
328 2% 89%  
329 2% 87%  
330 3% 85%  
331 2% 83%  
332 3% 80%  
333 4% 77%  
334 3% 73%  
335 3% 71%  
336 4% 67%  
337 4% 63%  
338 4% 59%  
339 3% 55% Median
340 4% 52%  
341 4% 48%  
342 4% 44%  
343 3% 40%  
344 3% 37%  
345 4% 33%  
346 3% 29%  
347 4% 27%  
348 3% 23%  
349 3% 20%  
350 2% 17%  
351 2% 15%  
352 2% 13%  
353 1.4% 11%  
354 1.2% 9%  
355 2% 8% Majority
356 1.1% 6%  
357 1.0% 5%  
358 0.8% 4%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.3% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.4% 98.9%  
289 0.4% 98.5%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.8% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 1.0% 96%  
294 1.2% 95%  
295 1.3% 94%  
296 1.4% 93%  
297 1.4% 91%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 2% 85%  
301 3% 83%  
302 3% 81%  
303 3% 78%  
304 2% 74%  
305 4% 72%  
306 3% 68%  
307 5% 65%  
308 3% 60%  
309 3% 57%  
310 5% 54% Median
311 3% 49%  
312 6% 45%  
313 3% 40%  
314 4% 37%  
315 3% 32%  
316 4% 30%  
317 3% 26%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 20%  
320 2% 17%  
321 2% 15%  
322 2% 13%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.3% 8%  
326 0.9% 6%  
327 1.2% 5%  
328 0.8% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.5% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.3% 99.4%  
276 0.2% 99.2%  
277 0.4% 98.9%  
278 0.3% 98.5%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.7% 97%  
282 0.9% 96%  
283 0.9% 95%  
284 1.4% 95%  
285 1.2% 93%  
286 2% 92%  
287 3% 90%  
288 2% 88%  
289 2% 86%  
290 2% 84%  
291 2% 81%  
292 4% 79%  
293 3% 75%  
294 4% 73%  
295 3% 68%  
296 3% 65%  
297 5% 61%  
298 2% 57%  
299 6% 55% Median
300 3% 49%  
301 3% 46%  
302 5% 42%  
303 3% 37%  
304 5% 35%  
305 2% 30%  
306 4% 27%  
307 3% 24%  
308 3% 21%  
309 2% 17%  
310 3% 15%  
311 2% 13%  
312 2% 11%  
313 1.2% 9%  
314 2% 8%  
315 1.0% 6%  
316 0.9% 5%  
317 1.0% 4%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.7% 3%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.4%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.3% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.3% 99.5%  
251 0.3% 99.2%  
252 0.6% 98.9%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.7% 97%  
257 2% 97%  
258 2% 95%  
259 1.5% 93%  
260 0.7% 92%  
261 1.2% 91%  
262 1.2% 90%  
263 4% 89%  
264 3% 85%  
265 3% 82%  
266 2% 79%  
267 3% 77%  
268 3% 74%  
269 4% 71%  
270 6% 67%  
271 4% 61%  
272 3% 57%  
273 2% 55% Median
274 5% 52%  
275 5% 47%  
276 6% 43%  
277 3% 36%  
278 2% 34%  
279 2% 31%  
280 4% 30%  
281 4% 25%  
282 5% 22%  
283 2% 17%  
284 1.1% 15%  
285 2% 14%  
286 2% 12%  
287 3% 11%  
288 1.2% 8%  
289 2% 7%  
290 0.5% 5%  
291 0.7% 4%  
292 0.6% 4%  
293 0.9% 3%  
294 0.6% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.2% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 1.1%  
298 0.2% 0.9%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.2%  
248 0.3% 99.1%  
249 0.5% 98.9%  
250 0.6% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.6% 97%  
253 0.9% 97%  
254 1.2% 96%  
255 0.9% 95%  
256 0.8% 94%  
257 1.2% 93%  
258 3% 92%  
259 2% 89%  
260 2% 87%  
261 2% 85%  
262 4% 84%  
263 4% 79%  
264 3% 76%  
265 2% 72%  
266 4% 70%  
267 6% 66%  
268 3% 60%  
269 2% 56%  
270 4% 54% Median
271 4% 50%  
272 5% 46%  
273 3% 41%  
274 3% 38%  
275 5% 35%  
276 5% 30%  
277 2% 26%  
278 2% 23%  
279 3% 22%  
280 4% 19%  
281 2% 15%  
282 1.5% 13%  
283 1.3% 11%  
284 3% 10%  
285 2% 7%  
286 1.0% 6%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 1.0% 4%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.2%  
294 0.3% 1.0%  
295 0.1% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.6%  
297 0.2% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.2% 99.3%  
156 0.3% 99.1%  
157 0.4% 98.8%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 0.6% 98%  
160 1.0% 97%  
161 0.9% 96%  
162 1.3% 95%  
163 2% 94%  
164 1.5% 92%  
165 3% 91%  
166 2% 88%  
167 3% 86%  
168 3% 83%  
169 4% 80%  
170 3% 76%  
171 6% 73%  
172 4% 67%  
173 4% 64%  
174 7% 60%  
175 5% 53% Median
176 4% 48%  
177 5% 44%  
178 4% 39%  
179 3% 35%  
180 3% 31%  
181 3% 28%  
182 3% 25%  
183 3% 22%  
184 3% 18%  
185 2% 15%  
186 2% 13%  
187 2% 11%  
188 1.4% 9%  
189 1.2% 7%  
190 1.1% 6%  
191 1.0% 5%  
192 0.6% 4%  
193 1.0% 3%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.5% 2%  
196 0.5% 1.5%  
197 0.3% 1.0%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.2% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.3% 99.0%  
154 0.4% 98.7%  
155 0.5% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 1.0% 96%  
159 1.3% 95%  
160 1.5% 93%  
161 2% 92%  
162 2% 90%  
163 3% 88%  
164 4% 85%  
165 3% 81%  
166 3% 78%  
167 3% 74%  
168 4% 71%  
169 5% 67%  
170 5% 62%  
171 4% 58%  
172 6% 54% Median
173 5% 48%  
174 4% 43%  
175 5% 40%  
176 4% 35%  
177 4% 31%  
178 5% 27%  
179 3% 22%  
180 3% 20%  
181 2% 17%  
182 2% 14%  
183 2% 12%  
184 2% 10%  
185 2% 8%  
186 2% 7%  
187 0.9% 5%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.6% 3%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.4%  
193 0.2% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations