Opinion Poll by Kantar, 6–12 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.5–24.0% 21.2–24.4% 20.9–24.7% 20.3–25.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 171 163–182 159–183 158–187 153–192
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 151 141–160 139–163 138–165 133–171
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 104–121 103–123 102–126 99–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 113 105–121 103–124 101–126 98–131
Die Linke 69 75 70–82 67–85 65–87 64–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–52 38–52 38–54 0–56
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–46 33–47 33–48 30–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.4% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.5% 99.1%  
156 0.1% 98.6%  
157 0.1% 98.5%  
158 1.2% 98%  
159 3% 97%  
160 1.0% 94%  
161 2% 93%  
162 0.5% 92%  
163 1.2% 91%  
164 4% 90%  
165 14% 85%  
166 2% 72%  
167 2% 70%  
168 1.3% 67%  
169 2% 66%  
170 6% 64%  
171 18% 58% Median
172 3% 40%  
173 1.1% 37%  
174 2% 35%  
175 4% 33%  
176 6% 29%  
177 6% 23%  
178 2% 17%  
179 0.3% 15%  
180 0.9% 14%  
181 2% 13%  
182 4% 12%  
183 2% 7%  
184 0.5% 5%  
185 0.3% 4%  
186 0.7% 4%  
187 1.4% 3%  
188 0.8% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.3%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.6%  
193 0.2% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.6%  
134 0.5% 99.4%  
135 0% 98.9%  
136 0.6% 98.9%  
137 0.7% 98%  
138 2% 98%  
139 1.4% 96%  
140 2% 94%  
141 2% 92%  
142 0.4% 90%  
143 4% 90%  
144 4% 85%  
145 5% 81%  
146 4% 76%  
147 6% 72%  
148 7% 66%  
149 2% 59%  
150 6% 57%  
151 5% 51% Median
152 7% 47%  
153 5% 40%  
154 8% 34%  
155 0.8% 26%  
156 2% 25%  
157 5% 23%  
158 4% 18%  
159 3% 14%  
160 4% 11%  
161 1.4% 8%  
162 0.7% 6%  
163 2% 6%  
164 1.0% 4%  
165 1.0% 3%  
166 0.4% 2%  
167 0.4% 2%  
168 0.1% 1.1%  
169 0.1% 1.0%  
170 0.3% 0.8%  
171 0.2% 0.5%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.6%  
100 0.5% 99.2%  
101 0.9% 98.8%  
102 2% 98%  
103 0.5% 95%  
104 5% 95%  
105 0.9% 90%  
106 6% 89%  
107 2% 83%  
108 3% 81%  
109 3% 78%  
110 4% 75%  
111 4% 72%  
112 7% 68%  
113 2% 60%  
114 12% 58% Median
115 1.5% 46%  
116 9% 45%  
117 3% 35%  
118 14% 32%  
119 3% 18%  
120 5% 15%  
121 3% 11%  
122 1.1% 8%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 0.5% 3%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.5%  
129 0.3% 1.1%  
130 0.2% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.7% 99.3%  
100 0.6% 98.6%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 1.4% 97%  
103 1.1% 96%  
104 4% 95%  
105 2% 90%  
106 4% 88%  
107 5% 84%  
108 10% 80%  
109 5% 70%  
110 3% 65%  
111 3% 62%  
112 7% 58%  
113 4% 52% Median
114 10% 48%  
115 5% 38%  
116 4% 32%  
117 2% 29%  
118 10% 26%  
119 4% 16%  
120 2% 12%  
121 2% 11%  
122 2% 9%  
123 1.2% 7%  
124 2% 6%  
125 0.9% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.5% 1.3%  
130 0.2% 0.7%  
131 0.3% 0.6%  
132 0% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.2% 99.5%  
65 2% 99.3%  
66 1.5% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 0.6% 91% Last Result
70 5% 91%  
71 4% 86%  
72 5% 82%  
73 19% 77%  
74 7% 58%  
75 5% 51% Median
76 3% 45%  
77 3% 42%  
78 5% 39%  
79 3% 33%  
80 8% 30%  
81 12% 23%  
82 3% 10%  
83 1.0% 7%  
84 0.4% 6%  
85 2% 6%  
86 0.4% 4%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 3% 91%  
41 9% 88%  
42 6% 78%  
43 13% 72%  
44 1.4% 59%  
45 15% 58% Median
46 3% 43%  
47 12% 40%  
48 3% 28%  
49 8% 24%  
50 3% 16%  
51 3% 13%  
52 5% 10%  
53 0.2% 5%  
54 3% 5%  
55 0.1% 1.3%  
56 0.8% 1.2%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 0.6% 99.4%  
32 0.8% 98.8%  
33 3% 98%  
34 3% 95%  
35 7% 92%  
36 8% 85%  
37 4% 76%  
38 6% 72%  
39 7% 66%  
40 12% 59% Median
41 7% 47%  
42 7% 40%  
43 8% 33%  
44 11% 25%  
45 2% 13%  
46 6% 12% Last Result
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 477 100% 463–487 461–489 460–494 453–510
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 407 100% 397–418 391–422 388–424 379–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 94% 357–380 354–384 350–386 341–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 371 95% 358–382 354–384 350–386 343–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 361 84% 353–373 345–375 344–382 341–392
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 6% 329–352 325–355 323–359 318–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 323 0.5% 314–335 310–339 308–344 303–355
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 325 0.2% 314–336 310–340 308–344 303–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 298–320 294–323 289–325 273–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 254–275 250–278 247–281 243–289
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 256 0% 246–268 241–271 236–273 221–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 180–199 176–202 174–205 171–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 159 0% 148–168 146–170 141–172 117–177

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0% 100%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.8%  
453 0.4% 99.7%  
454 0.1% 99.4%  
455 0.4% 99.3%  
456 0.2% 98.9%  
457 0.3% 98.8%  
458 0.4% 98.5%  
459 0.2% 98%  
460 2% 98%  
461 1.4% 96%  
462 4% 95%  
463 1.3% 91%  
464 0.5% 89%  
465 2% 89%  
466 1.0% 87% Last Result
467 4% 86%  
468 1.3% 82%  
469 2% 81%  
470 3% 79%  
471 4% 76%  
472 1.5% 72%  
473 5% 70%  
474 2% 65%  
475 3% 62%  
476 8% 59% Median
477 16% 51%  
478 2% 35%  
479 5% 33%  
480 1.4% 28%  
481 3% 27%  
482 2% 23%  
483 5% 21%  
484 2% 16%  
485 2% 14%  
486 2% 13%  
487 4% 11%  
488 1.2% 7%  
489 2% 6%  
490 0.5% 4%  
491 0.3% 3%  
492 0.1% 3%  
493 0.2% 3%  
494 0.5% 3%  
495 0.1% 2%  
496 0.2% 2%  
497 0.1% 2%  
498 0.1% 2%  
499 0.2% 2%  
500 0% 2%  
501 0% 2%  
502 0.1% 2%  
503 0% 2%  
504 0% 2%  
505 0.2% 2%  
506 0% 1.4%  
507 0.6% 1.4%  
508 0.1% 0.8%  
509 0% 0.7%  
510 0.3% 0.7%  
511 0% 0.4%  
512 0% 0.4%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.3%  
515 0% 0.3%  
516 0% 0.3%  
517 0.1% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0.1% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.8%  
377 0.2% 99.8%  
378 0% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.5%  
380 0% 99.3%  
381 0.1% 99.2%  
382 0% 99.1%  
383 0.2% 99.1%  
384 0.1% 98.9%  
385 0% 98.8%  
386 0.3% 98.8%  
387 0.7% 98%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 0.5% 97%  
390 0.4% 97%  
391 2% 96%  
392 0.4% 95%  
393 1.0% 94% Last Result
394 0.4% 93%  
395 0.6% 93%  
396 1.5% 92%  
397 1.1% 91%  
398 1.4% 90%  
399 6% 88%  
400 4% 82%  
401 3% 78%  
402 7% 75%  
403 7% 68%  
404 1.3% 62%  
405 5% 60%  
406 4% 56%  
407 4% 51% Median
408 8% 47%  
409 6% 40%  
410 4% 33%  
411 3% 30%  
412 2% 26%  
413 4% 24%  
414 1.0% 20%  
415 2% 19%  
416 2% 17%  
417 2% 15%  
418 3% 13%  
419 1.0% 10%  
420 3% 9%  
421 0.5% 6%  
422 0.9% 5%  
423 0.3% 4%  
424 2% 4%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 1.0% 2%  
427 0.6% 1.2%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.2% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
330 0.1% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0% 99.6%  
340 0% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.4%  
343 0.1% 99.4%  
344 0.1% 99.3%  
345 0.2% 99.2%  
346 0.7% 99.0%  
347 0.3% 98%  
348 0.2% 98%  
349 0.1% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.2% 97%  
353 2% 97%  
354 1.4% 95%  
355 0.8% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 1.1% 90%  
358 3% 89%  
359 1.1% 87%  
360 1.3% 86%  
361 2% 84%  
362 6% 82%  
363 3% 76%  
364 1.2% 74%  
365 6% 72%  
366 5% 67%  
367 5% 62%  
368 8% 57%  
369 5% 49% Median
370 2% 44%  
371 3% 42%  
372 3% 39%  
373 3% 36%  
374 7% 33%  
375 2% 26%  
376 4% 24%  
377 5% 20%  
378 1.0% 14%  
379 2% 13%  
380 3% 12%  
381 1.0% 8%  
382 1.3% 7%  
383 0.7% 6%  
384 1.1% 5%  
385 1.1% 4%  
386 1.3% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.6% 1.4%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.3% 99.2%  
347 0.2% 98.9%  
348 0.2% 98.7%  
349 0.9% 98.5%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.3% 97%  
353 1.3% 97%  
354 0.7% 95%  
355 0.7% 95% Majority
356 2% 94%  
357 0.9% 92%  
358 2% 91%  
359 4% 89%  
360 0.9% 85%  
361 3% 84%  
362 1.2% 81%  
363 4% 80%  
364 3% 76%  
365 3% 73%  
366 0.9% 70%  
367 3% 69%  
368 8% 66%  
369 3% 58%  
370 4% 55% Median
371 8% 50%  
372 7% 43%  
373 4% 36%  
374 5% 32%  
375 2% 27%  
376 2% 25%  
377 4% 23%  
378 3% 19%  
379 2% 17%  
380 3% 15%  
381 2% 12%  
382 3% 10%  
383 1.4% 7%  
384 2% 6%  
385 0.4% 4%  
386 2% 4%  
387 0.2% 2%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.5% 1.3%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.2% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.2% 99.8%  
341 0.3% 99.6%  
342 0.4% 99.3%  
343 0.8% 99.0%  
344 2% 98%  
345 1.3% 96%  
346 0.7% 95%  
347 0.4% 94%  
348 0.9% 93%  
349 0.3% 93%  
350 0.2% 92%  
351 0.7% 92%  
352 1.1% 91%  
353 5% 90%  
354 2% 86%  
355 3% 84% Majority
356 4% 81%  
357 5% 77%  
358 4% 72%  
359 11% 68%  
360 5% 57%  
361 2% 51%  
362 2% 49% Median
363 8% 47%  
364 5% 39%  
365 0.4% 34%  
366 2% 34%  
367 2% 32%  
368 3% 30%  
369 2% 27%  
370 3% 25%  
371 4% 21%  
372 4% 17%  
373 5% 14%  
374 2% 9%  
375 2% 7%  
376 0.4% 4%  
377 0.5% 4%  
378 0.2% 4%  
379 0.3% 3%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0.1% 3%  
382 0.8% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0% 2%  
386 0.1% 2%  
387 0.7% 1.5%  
388 0.1% 0.8%  
389 0% 0.7%  
390 0% 0.7%  
391 0% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.5%  
320 0.6% 99.2%  
321 0.3% 98.6%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 1.3% 98%  
324 1.1% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 0.7% 95%  
327 1.3% 94%  
328 1.0% 93%  
329 3% 92%  
330 2% 88%  
331 1.0% 87%  
332 5% 86%  
333 4% 80%  
334 2% 76%  
335 7% 74%  
336 3% 67%  
337 3% 64%  
338 3% 61%  
339 2% 58%  
340 5% 56% Median
341 8% 51%  
342 5% 43%  
343 5% 38%  
344 6% 33%  
345 1.2% 28%  
346 3% 26%  
347 6% 24%  
348 2% 18%  
349 1.3% 16%  
350 1.1% 14%  
351 3% 13%  
352 1.1% 11%  
353 2% 10%  
354 0.8% 7%  
355 1.4% 6% Majority
356 2% 5%  
357 0.2% 3%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.7% 2%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.1% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.7%  
367 0% 0.6%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.6%  
304 0.4% 99.4%  
305 0.3% 99.0%  
306 0.4% 98.7%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 2% 98%  
309 1.2% 96%  
310 0.4% 95%  
311 2% 95%  
312 1.1% 93%  
313 2% 92%  
314 1.2% 90%  
315 5% 89%  
316 2% 84%  
317 2% 82%  
318 5% 80%  
319 6% 75%  
320 4% 69%  
321 2% 65%  
322 5% 63%  
323 8% 58%  
324 5% 50% Median
325 2% 45%  
326 4% 43%  
327 6% 39%  
328 4% 34%  
329 2% 29%  
330 2% 27%  
331 6% 25%  
332 2% 19%  
333 0.7% 17%  
334 2% 17%  
335 5% 14%  
336 1.3% 9%  
337 2% 8%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 0.7% 5% Last Result
341 0.9% 4%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.1% 3%  
344 0.4% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.8% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.3%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.5% Majority
356 0% 0.5%  
357 0.3% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.3% 99.6%  
304 0.3% 99.3%  
305 0.7% 99.0%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.2% 97%  
310 2% 97%  
311 2% 95%  
312 2% 93%  
313 0.7% 92%  
314 1.0% 91%  
315 3% 90%  
316 2% 87%  
317 3% 85%  
318 6% 82%  
319 2% 76%  
320 2% 74%  
321 2% 72%  
322 3% 70%  
323 13% 68%  
324 3% 54%  
325 4% 51% Median
326 1.4% 47%  
327 2% 46%  
328 8% 44%  
329 10% 36%  
330 3% 25%  
331 2% 22%  
332 2% 21%  
333 2% 19%  
334 2% 17%  
335 3% 14%  
336 1.4% 11%  
337 3% 10%  
338 0.6% 7%  
339 0.2% 6%  
340 0.9% 6%  
341 2% 5%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.2% 3%  
344 0.2% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.6% 1.2%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.5%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0.6% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 98.8%  
280 0% 98.7%  
281 0.1% 98.7%  
282 0.2% 98.6%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.4% 97%  
291 0.4% 97%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 0.5% 95%  
295 2% 95%  
296 0.6% 93%  
297 2% 92%  
298 1.5% 90%  
299 1.4% 89%  
300 2% 87% Last Result
301 6% 85%  
302 2% 79%  
303 3% 77%  
304 1.4% 75%  
305 5% 73%  
306 3% 68%  
307 6% 65%  
308 3% 58%  
309 6% 55%  
310 4% 49% Median
311 3% 44%  
312 3% 41%  
313 9% 38%  
314 4% 29%  
315 2% 25%  
316 3% 23%  
317 2% 20%  
318 6% 18%  
319 0.7% 12%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 1.4% 7%  
323 1.3% 6%  
324 1.4% 4%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.5% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0.4% 99.3%  
246 0.8% 99.0%  
247 1.1% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 1.2% 97%  
250 0.7% 95%  
251 0.8% 95%  
252 2% 94%  
253 0.5% 92%  
254 2% 91%  
255 4% 89%  
256 2% 85%  
257 3% 83%  
258 3% 79%  
259 8% 76%  
260 3% 69%  
261 6% 66%  
262 2% 60%  
263 0.8% 58%  
264 5% 57%  
265 2% 52% Median
266 7% 49%  
267 3% 43%  
268 10% 40%  
269 6% 30%  
270 2% 23%  
271 3% 21%  
272 2% 18%  
273 1.1% 16%  
274 2% 15%  
275 3% 13%  
276 0.5% 10%  
277 4% 9%  
278 2% 6%  
279 0.4% 4%  
280 0.6% 4%  
281 0.7% 3%  
282 0.7% 2%  
283 0.2% 2%  
284 0.1% 1.4%  
285 0.2% 1.3%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.2% 0.8%  
288 0.1% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0.1% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0% 99.6%  
221 0.1% 99.6%  
222 0.1% 99.5%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0% 99.4%  
225 0% 99.3%  
226 0.3% 99.3%  
227 0% 99.1%  
228 0.2% 99.0%  
229 0.7% 98.9%  
230 0% 98%  
231 0.1% 98%  
232 0% 98%  
233 0.1% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 0.7% 97%  
239 0.2% 97%  
240 0.3% 96%  
241 3% 96%  
242 0.2% 94%  
243 0.9% 93%  
244 0.6% 92%  
245 2% 92%  
246 1.4% 90%  
247 3% 89%  
248 2% 86%  
249 5% 84%  
250 2% 79%  
251 5% 77%  
252 0.7% 72%  
253 4% 71%  
254 14% 67%  
255 2% 53%  
256 5% 51% Median
257 3% 46%  
258 2% 43%  
259 11% 41%  
260 3% 30%  
261 2% 27%  
262 1.1% 24%  
263 2% 23%  
264 3% 21%  
265 4% 18%  
266 2% 14%  
267 2% 12%  
268 0.8% 10%  
269 0.8% 9%  
270 2% 9%  
271 3% 7%  
272 1.3% 4%  
273 0.2% 3%  
274 0.1% 2%  
275 0.8% 2%  
276 0.8% 1.5%  
277 0.2% 0.6%  
278 0.2% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.2% 99.7%  
170 0% 99.6%  
171 0.4% 99.5%  
172 0.3% 99.1%  
173 0.2% 98.7%  
174 1.1% 98.6%  
175 0.7% 97%  
176 2% 97%  
177 2% 95%  
178 0.4% 93%  
179 2% 93%  
180 4% 90%  
181 1.2% 86%  
182 3% 84%  
183 3% 81%  
184 3% 78%  
185 7% 75%  
186 3% 68%  
187 8% 65%  
188 6% 58%  
189 3% 52% Median
190 3% 49%  
191 7% 46%  
192 7% 39%  
193 0.6% 32%  
194 7% 32%  
195 3% 25%  
196 2% 22%  
197 3% 20%  
198 2% 17%  
199 7% 15%  
200 2% 9%  
201 0.2% 6%  
202 2% 6%  
203 1.3% 4%  
204 0.5% 3%  
205 0.9% 3%  
206 0.6% 2%  
207 0.1% 1.1%  
208 0.2% 1.0%  
209 0.1% 0.8%  
210 0.1% 0.6%  
211 0.2% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.4%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.6%  
115 0% 99.6%  
116 0% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.5%  
118 0% 99.5%  
119 0% 99.5%  
120 0.9% 99.4%  
121 0% 98.5%  
122 0.1% 98%  
123 0% 98%  
124 0% 98%  
125 0% 98%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0.2% 98%  
142 0.8% 97%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.4% 97%  
145 0.7% 96%  
146 0.8% 95%  
147 3% 95%  
148 2% 91%  
149 1.1% 89%  
150 2% 88%  
151 4% 87%  
152 2% 83%  
153 3% 81%  
154 6% 78%  
155 7% 72%  
156 3% 65%  
157 3% 62%  
158 3% 59%  
159 11% 56% Median
160 4% 45%  
161 9% 41%  
162 3% 33%  
163 5% 30%  
164 5% 25%  
165 2% 20%  
166 3% 17%  
167 0.8% 14%  
168 5% 13%  
169 0.5% 8%  
170 3% 8%  
171 0.8% 5%  
172 1.4% 4%  
173 0.4% 2%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.5% 1.5%  
176 0.3% 0.9%  
177 0.2% 0.6%  
178 0.1% 0.4%  
179 0% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations