Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–17 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.8% 7.9–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 150–169 147–171 146–172 143–177
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 154 145–163 144–167 141–169 138–173
Alternative für Deutschland 94 115 106–121 105–124 104–127 100–130
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 110 103–117 100–120 98–122 95–125
Die Linke 69 72 67–79 66–80 64–81 60–85
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 52–63 49–64 48–65 47–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.7%  
144 0.6% 99.4%  
145 1.1% 98.9%  
146 0.7% 98%  
147 3% 97%  
148 2% 94%  
149 0.4% 92%  
150 3% 92%  
151 2% 89%  
152 1.0% 88%  
153 1.3% 87%  
154 2% 85%  
155 5% 83%  
156 5% 78%  
157 7% 73%  
158 14% 66%  
159 8% 51% Median
160 5% 43%  
161 9% 39%  
162 6% 30%  
163 2% 24%  
164 2% 23%  
165 2% 21%  
166 2% 19%  
167 2% 17%  
168 3% 15%  
169 4% 11%  
170 0.9% 7%  
171 3% 6%  
172 1.2% 3%  
173 0.8% 2%  
174 0.2% 1.3%  
175 0.3% 1.1%  
176 0.3% 0.8%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.5%  
139 0.4% 99.4%  
140 0.5% 99.0%  
141 1.0% 98%  
142 0.9% 97%  
143 1.1% 97%  
144 2% 95%  
145 3% 93%  
146 2% 90%  
147 3% 88%  
148 7% 85%  
149 3% 79%  
150 4% 76%  
151 3% 72%  
152 8% 69%  
153 7% 61%  
154 4% 54% Median
155 12% 50%  
156 6% 38%  
157 4% 32%  
158 5% 28%  
159 3% 23%  
160 5% 20%  
161 2% 15%  
162 3% 13%  
163 1.4% 10%  
164 1.4% 9%  
165 0.7% 8%  
166 1.1% 7%  
167 1.2% 6%  
168 1.4% 5%  
169 0.7% 3%  
170 2% 2%  
171 0.2% 0.9%  
172 0.2% 0.7%  
173 0.3% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100% Last Result
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.6%  
101 0.2% 99.4%  
102 0.6% 99.3%  
103 0.7% 98.6%  
104 2% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 5% 94%  
107 2% 89%  
108 6% 87%  
109 3% 80%  
110 3% 77%  
111 3% 74%  
112 3% 71%  
113 4% 69%  
114 4% 65%  
115 12% 61% Median
116 6% 49%  
117 8% 43%  
118 13% 35%  
119 5% 21%  
120 3% 17%  
121 6% 14%  
122 1.0% 7%  
123 1.4% 6%  
124 0.8% 5%  
125 0.8% 4%  
126 0.7% 4%  
127 0.9% 3%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.0%  
130 0.4% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.4%  
97 0.3% 99.2%  
98 2% 98.9%  
99 0.5% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 1.4% 94%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 90%  
104 4% 88%  
105 2% 84%  
106 10% 82%  
107 3% 72%  
108 6% 69%  
109 12% 63%  
110 6% 50% Median
111 14% 45%  
112 2% 31%  
113 8% 29%  
114 3% 21%  
115 3% 17%  
116 3% 14%  
117 2% 11%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.8% 5%  
121 2% 5%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.8% 1.4%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.6%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 0.3% 99.1%  
63 0.4% 98.8%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.4% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 12% 88%  
69 5% 76% Last Result
70 13% 71%  
71 5% 58%  
72 4% 54% Median
73 5% 50%  
74 2% 45%  
75 4% 43%  
76 9% 39%  
77 10% 30%  
78 8% 20%  
79 5% 12%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 1.1% 99.6%  
48 2% 98.5%  
49 2% 97%  
50 2% 95%  
51 2% 93%  
52 17% 90%  
53 5% 73%  
54 2% 68%  
55 5% 66%  
56 15% 61% Median
57 5% 45%  
58 2% 40%  
59 5% 39%  
60 14% 34%  
61 4% 19%  
62 4% 15%  
63 2% 11%  
64 6% 8%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.3% 1.3%  
67 0.2% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 0.8% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 4% 91%  
38 10% 87%  
39 9% 77%  
40 6% 68%  
41 12% 62%  
42 11% 51% Median
43 12% 40%  
44 10% 28%  
45 5% 18%  
46 3% 13% Last Result
47 4% 9%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.4% 1.3%  
52 0.4% 0.9%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 464 100% 456–476 454–480 453–483 446–485
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 410 100% 404–422 399–424 397–429 394–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 98.6% 361–382 359–385 356–388 350–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 367 95% 358–377 354–381 351–383 346–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 355 54% 347–367 342–370 339–372 335–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 336 1.4% 327–348 324–350 321–353 317–359
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 321 0% 311–331 308–334 306–336 301–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 315 0% 305–325 302–328 300–331 295–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 310 0% 301–322 297–324 295–326 291–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 264 0% 254–273 251–278 250–279 245–285
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 257 0% 248–268 245–270 242–272 238–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 174–192 171–194 168–197 165–201
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 158–175 155–178 154–180 149–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
441 0.1% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.8%  
444 0.1% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.7%  
446 0.2% 99.6%  
447 0.1% 99.4%  
448 0.1% 99.3%  
449 0.1% 99.2%  
450 0.2% 99.1%  
451 0.7% 98.9%  
452 0.3% 98%  
453 2% 98%  
454 2% 96%  
455 2% 94%  
456 2% 91%  
457 2% 89%  
458 2% 87%  
459 4% 86%  
460 4% 82%  
461 14% 78%  
462 3% 64%  
463 10% 61%  
464 8% 51%  
465 5% 43% Median
466 2% 38% Last Result
467 7% 36%  
468 5% 29%  
469 2% 24%  
470 3% 22%  
471 3% 20%  
472 2% 17%  
473 2% 15%  
474 1.4% 14%  
475 2% 12%  
476 3% 10%  
477 1.2% 8%  
478 0.7% 6%  
479 0.5% 6%  
480 0.4% 5%  
481 0.7% 5%  
482 0.7% 4%  
483 3% 3%  
484 0.2% 0.7%  
485 0.1% 0.5%  
486 0.1% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0.1% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.5% 99.4%  
396 0.9% 98.9%  
397 2% 98%  
398 0.9% 96%  
399 1.5% 96%  
400 1.4% 94%  
401 2% 93%  
402 0.5% 91%  
403 0.5% 91%  
404 2% 90%  
405 0.8% 88%  
406 8% 87%  
407 11% 78%  
408 4% 68%  
409 9% 64%  
410 8% 54%  
411 8% 47% Median
412 3% 39%  
413 3% 36%  
414 0.6% 33%  
415 2% 33%  
416 0.8% 31%  
417 3% 30%  
418 2% 27%  
419 4% 25%  
420 5% 21%  
421 5% 16%  
422 5% 12%  
423 2% 7%  
424 2% 5%  
425 0.4% 3%  
426 0.1% 3%  
427 0.1% 3%  
428 0.3% 3%  
429 0.2% 3%  
430 0.6% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0.6% 2%  
433 0.2% 1.0%  
434 0.5% 0.8%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.3% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.5%  
352 0.1% 99.4%  
353 0.6% 99.3%  
354 0.1% 98.7%  
355 0.3% 98.6% Majority
356 0.9% 98%  
357 1.1% 97%  
358 0.3% 96%  
359 1.0% 96%  
360 4% 95%  
361 1.1% 91%  
362 0.9% 90%  
363 3% 89%  
364 2% 86%  
365 2% 84%  
366 3% 82%  
367 11% 79%  
368 4% 68%  
369 1.0% 64%  
370 3% 63%  
371 2% 61%  
372 3% 59% Median
373 15% 56%  
374 9% 41%  
375 4% 32%  
376 1.3% 28%  
377 1.4% 27%  
378 2% 25%  
379 1.4% 23%  
380 7% 22%  
381 3% 14%  
382 2% 12%  
383 3% 9%  
384 0.9% 6%  
385 1.0% 5%  
386 0.2% 4%  
387 0.9% 4%  
388 0.7% 3%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 1.0% 2%  
391 0.7% 1.2%  
392 0.2% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.4% 99.8%  
347 0.3% 99.4%  
348 0.8% 99.1%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.3% 98%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 0.8% 97%  
353 0.8% 96%  
354 1.0% 96%  
355 2% 95% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 0.7% 91%  
358 2% 91%  
359 4% 89%  
360 1.5% 85%  
361 8% 83%  
362 9% 76%  
363 3% 67%  
364 2% 64%  
365 2% 62%  
366 7% 60%  
367 4% 53% Median
368 6% 49%  
369 9% 43%  
370 3% 35%  
371 1.3% 32%  
372 3% 30%  
373 2% 27%  
374 2% 25%  
375 9% 23%  
376 3% 14%  
377 2% 11%  
378 0.9% 9%  
379 0.9% 8%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.9% 5%  
382 2% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.1% 1.4%  
387 0.1% 1.3%  
388 0.4% 1.2%  
389 0.5% 0.8%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0.1% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.3% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.5%  
337 0.9% 99.3%  
338 0.4% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 0.4% 97%  
341 2% 97%  
342 0.3% 95%  
343 0.4% 95%  
344 1.2% 95%  
345 1.1% 93%  
346 0.5% 92%  
347 4% 92%  
348 3% 87%  
349 6% 85%  
350 12% 79%  
351 8% 67%  
352 2% 60%  
353 1.2% 58%  
354 3% 57%  
355 9% 54% Median, Majority
356 0.6% 45%  
357 15% 44%  
358 2% 29%  
359 5% 27%  
360 2% 21%  
361 1.4% 19%  
362 0.9% 18%  
363 1.1% 17%  
364 0.2% 16%  
365 1.0% 15%  
366 1.3% 14%  
367 4% 13%  
368 0.8% 9%  
369 2% 8%  
370 3% 6%  
371 0.3% 3%  
372 0.8% 3%  
373 0.1% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.6% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.1%  
377 0.7% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0.1% 100%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.7% 99.4%  
319 1.0% 98.8%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.7% 98%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 0.2% 96%  
324 1.0% 96%  
325 0.9% 95%  
326 3% 94%  
327 2% 91%  
328 3% 88%  
329 7% 86%  
330 1.4% 78%  
331 2% 77%  
332 1.4% 75%  
333 1.3% 73%  
334 4% 72%  
335 9% 68%  
336 15% 59% Median
337 3% 44%  
338 2% 41%  
339 3% 39%  
340 1.0% 37%  
341 4% 36%  
342 11% 32%  
343 3% 21%  
344 2% 18%  
345 2% 16%  
346 3% 14%  
347 0.9% 11%  
348 1.1% 10%  
349 4% 9%  
350 1.0% 5%  
351 0.3% 4%  
352 1.1% 4%  
353 0.9% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.1% 1.4% Majority
356 0.6% 1.3%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.3% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0.2% 99.6%  
302 0.6% 99.4%  
303 0.3% 98.8%  
304 0.2% 98.6%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 1.4% 98%  
307 0.5% 96%  
308 1.4% 96%  
309 2% 94%  
310 0.7% 92%  
311 7% 91%  
312 1.2% 84%  
313 2% 83%  
314 2% 81%  
315 7% 79%  
316 8% 72%  
317 3% 64%  
318 3% 61%  
319 4% 59%  
320 4% 55% Median
321 6% 51%  
322 5% 45%  
323 1.3% 40%  
324 5% 39%  
325 5% 34%  
326 8% 29%  
327 2% 21%  
328 1.0% 19%  
329 3% 18%  
330 5% 15%  
331 2% 10%  
332 0.6% 8%  
333 1.0% 8%  
334 3% 7%  
335 0.4% 4%  
336 1.4% 4%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.2% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.2% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.1% 99.4%  
297 0.5% 99.3%  
298 0.7% 98.8%  
299 0.4% 98%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 1.0% 97%  
302 2% 96%  
303 1.0% 95%  
304 2% 94%  
305 3% 92%  
306 3% 89%  
307 1.5% 86%  
308 2% 84%  
309 5% 83%  
310 1.4% 77%  
311 6% 76%  
312 3% 70%  
313 7% 67%  
314 3% 60%  
315 8% 57%  
316 3% 49% Median
317 8% 46%  
318 4% 38%  
319 2% 34%  
320 5% 32%  
321 3% 27%  
322 6% 24%  
323 2% 18%  
324 4% 16%  
325 3% 12%  
326 0.9% 9%  
327 1.3% 8%  
328 2% 7%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 1.2% 3%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.6% 1.4%  
335 0.1% 0.8%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.2% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.5% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.1%  
293 0.9% 99.0%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 2% 97%  
297 2% 96%  
298 0.2% 94%  
299 1.1% 94%  
300 2% 93%  
301 1.4% 91%  
302 3% 89%  
303 3% 86%  
304 2% 84%  
305 2% 82%  
306 9% 80%  
307 3% 71%  
308 6% 69%  
309 6% 63%  
310 8% 56%  
311 7% 49% Median
312 2% 42%  
313 9% 40%  
314 5% 31%  
315 3% 26%  
316 3% 23%  
317 2% 20%  
318 2% 19%  
319 3% 16%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 0.9% 10%  
323 4% 9%  
324 1.2% 5%  
325 2% 4%  
326 0.2% 3%  
327 0.9% 2%  
328 0.6% 1.5%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.3% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.5% 99.7%  
246 0.9% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.6% 98%  
251 3% 97%  
252 0.8% 94%  
253 3% 93%  
254 1.1% 90%  
255 1.2% 89%  
256 2% 88%  
257 3% 86%  
258 2% 84%  
259 12% 82%  
260 4% 69%  
261 5% 65%  
262 3% 60%  
263 3% 58%  
264 6% 55% Median
265 7% 49%  
266 11% 42%  
267 3% 31%  
268 3% 28%  
269 2% 25%  
270 2% 23%  
271 4% 21%  
272 2% 17%  
273 6% 16%  
274 2% 9%  
275 0.7% 7%  
276 0.3% 7%  
277 0.6% 6%  
278 1.4% 6%  
279 2% 4%  
280 0.8% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.5%  
282 0.1% 1.1%  
283 0.1% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.9%  
285 0.1% 0.6%  
286 0.3% 0.5%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.2% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.3% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.3%  
240 0.5% 99.1%  
241 0.4% 98.6%  
242 1.1% 98%  
243 0.7% 97%  
244 1.4% 96%  
245 0.6% 95%  
246 1.3% 94%  
247 2% 93%  
248 4% 91%  
249 2% 88%  
250 3% 86%  
251 1.4% 83%  
252 9% 82%  
253 4% 73%  
254 3% 69%  
255 8% 66%  
256 7% 59%  
257 2% 51% Median
258 6% 49%  
259 7% 42%  
260 2% 35%  
261 2% 34%  
262 7% 31%  
263 2% 24%  
264 2% 22%  
265 5% 20%  
266 2% 15%  
267 3% 13%  
268 1.4% 10%  
269 3% 9%  
270 1.1% 6%  
271 1.1% 5%  
272 1.2% 4%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.5% 2%  
275 0.6% 2%  
276 0.1% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.8%  
278 0.2% 0.6%  
279 0.2% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.5% 99.6%  
166 0.1% 99.1%  
167 0.5% 99.0%  
168 1.0% 98.5%  
169 0.9% 97%  
170 0.8% 97%  
171 1.0% 96%  
172 1.5% 95%  
173 2% 93%  
174 3% 91%  
175 4% 88%  
176 2% 84%  
177 5% 82%  
178 4% 77%  
179 4% 74%  
180 6% 70%  
181 9% 64%  
182 8% 54% Median
183 4% 46%  
184 5% 43%  
185 2% 38%  
186 5% 36%  
187 7% 31%  
188 8% 24%  
189 2% 16%  
190 2% 15%  
191 3% 13%  
192 3% 10%  
193 1.1% 7%  
194 2% 6%  
195 1.1% 5%  
196 0.8% 3%  
197 1.2% 3%  
198 0.1% 1.5%  
199 0.4% 1.3%  
200 0.3% 0.9%  
201 0.2% 0.6%  
202 0.2% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0.1% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.8%  
149 0.3% 99.6%  
150 0.2% 99.3%  
151 0.4% 99.1%  
152 0.4% 98.7%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 2% 98%  
155 1.3% 96%  
156 1.1% 95%  
157 2% 93%  
158 7% 91%  
159 2% 84%  
160 1.3% 82%  
161 8% 81%  
162 4% 73%  
163 4% 69%  
164 6% 64%  
165 4% 58%  
166 5% 54% Median
167 7% 49%  
168 2% 42%  
169 7% 40%  
170 3% 33%  
171 7% 30%  
172 5% 23%  
173 2% 19%  
174 5% 17%  
175 2% 12%  
176 2% 10%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 7%  
179 0.9% 5%  
180 2% 4%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.3% 2%  
183 0.7% 1.4%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations