Opinion Poll by Kantar, 13–19 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.2% 19.2–24.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.8% 18.0–22.1% 17.4–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.3–17.0% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.8–15.2% 12.5–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.7–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.7–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 156–177 153–180 151–183 145–188
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 151 141–162 139–165 136–167 131–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–123 103–126 101–129 97–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 106 97–115 95–117 93–120 89–125
Die Linke 69 76 69–84 67–86 65–89 62–93
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 36–48 35–50 34–51 31–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.4% 99.3%  
148 0.3% 99.0%  
149 0.6% 98.7%  
150 0.5% 98%  
151 0.9% 98%  
152 1.2% 97%  
153 1.2% 95%  
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 91%  
157 2% 87%  
158 4% 86%  
159 3% 81%  
160 5% 79%  
161 2% 74%  
162 5% 72%  
163 4% 67%  
164 5% 63%  
165 6% 58%  
166 4% 52% Median
167 6% 48%  
168 4% 42%  
169 5% 38%  
170 4% 33%  
171 4% 30%  
172 2% 26%  
173 4% 23%  
174 2% 19%  
175 4% 17%  
176 1.3% 13%  
177 3% 12%  
178 2% 9%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.1% 5%  
181 0.8% 4%  
182 0.9% 3%  
183 0.3% 3%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.2%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.4%  
133 0.3% 99.2%  
134 0.4% 98.9%  
135 0.6% 98.5%  
136 0.8% 98%  
137 1.1% 97%  
138 1.1% 96%  
139 2% 95%  
140 2% 93%  
141 3% 92%  
142 2% 89%  
143 3% 87%  
144 4% 84%  
145 4% 80%  
146 4% 76%  
147 4% 72%  
148 5% 67%  
149 4% 62%  
150 5% 58%  
151 5% 53% Median
152 4% 49%  
153 5% 44%  
154 5% 39%  
155 4% 34%  
156 5% 31%  
157 3% 25%  
158 4% 22%  
159 3% 18%  
160 3% 15%  
161 2% 12%  
162 2% 10%  
163 2% 8%  
164 1.2% 6%  
165 1.0% 5%  
166 1.1% 4%  
167 0.6% 3%  
168 0.7% 2%  
169 0.4% 2%  
170 0.4% 1.4%  
171 0.4% 1.0%  
172 0.2% 0.7%  
173 0.1% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.5%  
98 0.4% 99.1%  
99 0.7% 98.8%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 1.0% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 91%  
106 2% 89%  
107 4% 86%  
108 4% 83%  
109 6% 79%  
110 4% 72%  
111 5% 69%  
112 5% 63%  
113 7% 59%  
114 6% 52% Median
115 6% 46%  
116 4% 40%  
117 4% 36%  
118 5% 32%  
119 6% 27%  
120 3% 21%  
121 4% 18%  
122 2% 14%  
123 3% 12%  
124 2% 10%  
125 2% 7%  
126 0.9% 5%  
127 1.1% 4%  
128 0.8% 3%  
129 0.7% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.2%  
132 0.2% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 0.5% 98.9%  
92 0.6% 98%  
93 1.2% 98%  
94 1.3% 97% Last Result
95 2% 95%  
96 2% 94%  
97 3% 92%  
98 3% 89%  
99 4% 87%  
100 4% 82%  
101 4% 78%  
102 5% 75%  
103 6% 70%  
104 5% 63%  
105 5% 58%  
106 5% 53% Median
107 5% 47%  
108 6% 42%  
109 5% 36%  
110 5% 30%  
111 4% 26%  
112 5% 22%  
113 3% 17%  
114 4% 15%  
115 2% 11%  
116 2% 9%  
117 2% 7%  
118 1.0% 5%  
119 1.1% 4%  
120 0.8% 3%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.5%  
123 0.4% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.8%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.1%  
64 0.8% 98.6%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 4% 90% Last Result
70 4% 87%  
71 5% 83%  
72 6% 78%  
73 6% 72%  
74 5% 66%  
75 8% 61%  
76 5% 53% Median
77 7% 48%  
78 7% 41%  
79 5% 33%  
80 5% 28%  
81 4% 23%  
82 4% 19%  
83 4% 16%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 1.2% 5%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.1%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 0.9% 98.7%  
44 1.3% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 87%  
49 5% 82%  
50 7% 77%  
51 6% 70%  
52 8% 63%  
53 9% 56% Median
54 8% 47%  
55 7% 39%  
56 6% 32%  
57 6% 26%  
58 5% 20%  
59 4% 16%  
60 4% 12%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.4%  
33 1.0% 98.7%  
34 2% 98%  
35 2% 96%  
36 4% 94%  
37 5% 89%  
38 7% 84%  
39 9% 77%  
40 7% 68%  
41 8% 61%  
42 8% 53% Median
43 11% 45%  
44 7% 34%  
45 7% 27%  
46 6% 20% Last Result
47 3% 14%  
48 3% 11%  
49 2% 7%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.9% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 474 100% 462–485 458–489 455–491 450–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 413 100% 400–425 397–428 394–432 388–437
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 376 98% 363–388 359–391 356–394 350–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 91% 355–380 351–384 348–386 342–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 359 69% 347–372 343–375 340–379 334–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 9% 329–354 325–358 323–361 317–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 322 0.1% 309–335 306–338 303–341 297–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 318 0% 306–331 303–334 300–338 294–343
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 314 0% 302–327 298–330 295–333 290–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 253–278 250–281 247–284 242–290
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 261 0% 250–273 246–277 243–280 237–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 179–201 176–205 173–207 169–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 167 0% 157–178 154–182 151–184 146–189

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.7%  
450 0.2% 99.5%  
451 0.2% 99.3%  
452 0.3% 99.1%  
453 0.3% 98.8%  
454 0.6% 98.5%  
455 0.7% 98%  
456 0.6% 97%  
457 0.8% 97%  
458 1.0% 96%  
459 1.1% 95%  
460 2% 94%  
461 1.3% 92%  
462 2% 91%  
463 3% 89%  
464 3% 86%  
465 2% 84%  
466 3% 82% Last Result
467 3% 78%  
468 5% 76%  
469 3% 70%  
470 5% 67%  
471 4% 62%  
472 4% 58%  
473 4% 54% Median
474 4% 50%  
475 5% 46%  
476 6% 42%  
477 3% 36%  
478 4% 33%  
479 3% 29%  
480 3% 25%  
481 4% 22%  
482 2% 18%  
483 3% 16%  
484 2% 14%  
485 2% 11%  
486 2% 9%  
487 1.4% 8%  
488 1.1% 6%  
489 2% 5%  
490 0.7% 4%  
491 0.6% 3%  
492 0.5% 2%  
493 0.4% 2%  
494 0.3% 1.4%  
495 0.4% 1.1%  
496 0.1% 0.7%  
497 0.2% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.6%  
389 0.2% 99.4%  
390 0.2% 99.1%  
391 0.3% 98.9%  
392 0.4% 98.6%  
393 0.5% 98% Last Result
394 0.5% 98%  
395 0.8% 97%  
396 0.7% 96%  
397 1.4% 96%  
398 0.8% 94%  
399 2% 93%  
400 2% 92%  
401 2% 90%  
402 2% 88%  
403 3% 86%  
404 2% 83%  
405 4% 81%  
406 2% 77%  
407 4% 75%  
408 4% 71%  
409 3% 67%  
410 4% 63%  
411 5% 59%  
412 4% 54% Median
413 5% 51%  
414 3% 46%  
415 4% 43%  
416 5% 39%  
417 3% 34%  
418 4% 31%  
419 2% 27%  
420 5% 24%  
421 2% 20%  
422 3% 18%  
423 2% 15%  
424 2% 13%  
425 2% 11%  
426 2% 9%  
427 1.4% 8%  
428 1.2% 6%  
429 0.7% 5%  
430 0.9% 4%  
431 0.7% 3%  
432 0.6% 3%  
433 0.5% 2%  
434 0.4% 1.5%  
435 0.3% 1.1%  
436 0.2% 0.8%  
437 0.2% 0.6%  
438 0.1% 0.4%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.2% 99.4%  
352 0.3% 99.3%  
353 0.2% 99.0%  
354 0.4% 98.8%  
355 0.4% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 0.5% 97%  
358 1.1% 97%  
359 1.0% 96%  
360 1.0% 95%  
361 1.2% 94%  
362 2% 93%  
363 2% 91%  
364 2% 89%  
365 3% 87%  
366 3% 85%  
367 2% 82%  
368 3% 79%  
369 3% 76%  
370 4% 73%  
371 4% 69%  
372 4% 65%  
373 5% 62%  
374 4% 57%  
375 3% 53% Median
376 3% 50%  
377 5% 47%  
378 3% 42%  
379 6% 39%  
380 4% 34%  
381 4% 30%  
382 3% 26%  
383 3% 23%  
384 3% 20%  
385 3% 18%  
386 2% 15%  
387 3% 13%  
388 2% 10%  
389 1.1% 8%  
390 1.3% 7%  
391 1.0% 6%  
392 0.9% 5%  
393 0.9% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.2% 1.4%  
398 0.3% 1.2%  
399 0.2% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.3%  
345 0.4% 99.1%  
346 0.3% 98.7%  
347 0.5% 98%  
348 0.5% 98%  
349 0.6% 97%  
350 0.7% 97%  
351 1.1% 96%  
352 1.1% 95%  
353 2% 94%  
354 1.4% 92%  
355 2% 91% Majority
356 1.4% 89%  
357 3% 87%  
358 3% 85%  
359 3% 82%  
360 2% 79%  
361 3% 77%  
362 3% 73%  
363 4% 71%  
364 5% 67%  
365 3% 62%  
366 4% 58%  
367 4% 54% Median
368 3% 50%  
369 5% 47%  
370 4% 41%  
371 4% 38%  
372 4% 33%  
373 3% 29%  
374 3% 26%  
375 3% 23%  
376 2% 20%  
377 2% 18%  
378 3% 16%  
379 2% 12%  
380 1.5% 10%  
381 1.2% 9%  
382 1.4% 8%  
383 1.1% 6%  
384 1.4% 5%  
385 0.8% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.5% 2%  
389 0.3% 1.5%  
390 0.3% 1.2%  
391 0.3% 0.9%  
392 0.2% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.4%  
336 0.2% 99.3%  
337 0.3% 99.1%  
338 0.3% 98.8%  
339 0.3% 98%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 0.7% 97%  
342 0.8% 97%  
343 1.2% 96%  
344 1.0% 95%  
345 1.5% 94%  
346 1.4% 92%  
347 2% 91%  
348 2% 89%  
349 3% 87%  
350 2% 84%  
351 3% 82%  
352 3% 79%  
353 4% 77%  
354 4% 73%  
355 2% 69% Majority
356 5% 67%  
357 5% 62%  
358 4% 58%  
359 4% 54% Median
360 5% 49%  
361 3% 44%  
362 3% 41%  
363 4% 38%  
364 4% 34%  
365 4% 29%  
366 2% 26%  
367 3% 23%  
368 3% 20%  
369 2% 17%  
370 2% 15%  
371 2% 13%  
372 2% 11%  
373 1.4% 9%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.3% 6%  
376 1.2% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.1%  
383 0.2% 0.9%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.3% 99.4%  
319 0.3% 99.1%  
320 0.3% 98.8%  
321 0.5% 98.5%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.8% 97%  
325 1.4% 96%  
326 1.1% 95%  
327 1.4% 94%  
328 1.2% 92%  
329 1.5% 91%  
330 2% 90%  
331 3% 88%  
332 2% 84%  
333 2% 82%  
334 3% 80%  
335 3% 77%  
336 3% 74%  
337 4% 71%  
338 4% 67%  
339 4% 62%  
340 5% 59%  
341 3% 53% Median
342 4% 50%  
343 4% 46%  
344 3% 42%  
345 5% 38%  
346 4% 33%  
347 3% 29%  
348 3% 27%  
349 2% 23%  
350 3% 21%  
351 3% 18%  
352 3% 15%  
353 1.4% 13%  
354 2% 11%  
355 1.4% 9% Majority
356 2% 8%  
357 1.1% 6%  
358 1.1% 5%  
359 0.7% 4%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.5% 3%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.3%  
365 0.2% 0.9%  
366 0.1% 0.7%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.3%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.3% 98.8%  
302 0.4% 98.5%  
303 0.7% 98%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 1.2% 97%  
306 1.2% 96%  
307 1.5% 95%  
308 1.2% 93%  
309 2% 92%  
310 2% 90%  
311 1.4% 88%  
312 2% 87%  
313 2% 85%  
314 3% 83%  
315 5% 80%  
316 3% 75%  
317 5% 72%  
318 4% 68%  
319 4% 63%  
320 4% 59%  
321 3% 55%  
322 3% 52% Median
323 3% 49%  
324 4% 46%  
325 4% 42%  
326 5% 38%  
327 4% 33%  
328 4% 29%  
329 4% 25%  
330 3% 21%  
331 2% 18%  
332 2% 16%  
333 1.5% 14%  
334 1.4% 12%  
335 1.3% 11%  
336 2% 9%  
337 1.5% 8%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0.9% 4%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.2%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.4%  
296 0.4% 99.2%  
297 0.3% 98.9%  
298 0.3% 98.6%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.5% 98% Last Result
301 0.7% 97%  
302 1.1% 96%  
303 1.2% 95%  
304 1.2% 94%  
305 2% 93%  
306 3% 91%  
307 1.3% 89%  
308 2% 87%  
309 4% 86%  
310 2% 82%  
311 3% 80%  
312 3% 77%  
313 3% 74%  
314 3% 71%  
315 5% 67%  
316 4% 63%  
317 3% 58%  
318 6% 55% Median
319 4% 50%  
320 5% 46%  
321 4% 41%  
322 3% 38%  
323 3% 34%  
324 4% 32%  
325 3% 27%  
326 4% 24%  
327 2% 20%  
328 3% 18%  
329 2% 15%  
330 2% 13%  
331 2% 11%  
332 2% 10%  
333 2% 8%  
334 1.2% 6%  
335 0.7% 5%  
336 1.0% 4%  
337 0.4% 3%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.5%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 0.9%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.2% 99.3%  
292 0.3% 99.1%  
293 0.4% 98.8%  
294 0.4% 98%  
295 0.7% 98%  
296 0.6% 97%  
297 1.2% 97%  
298 1.0% 96%  
299 0.9% 95%  
300 1.3% 94%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 1.4% 88%  
304 3% 87%  
305 3% 84%  
306 3% 81%  
307 2% 78%  
308 3% 76%  
309 4% 73%  
310 4% 69%  
311 4% 65%  
312 5% 62%  
313 4% 57%  
314 4% 52% Median
315 3% 48%  
316 5% 46%  
317 4% 41%  
318 4% 36%  
319 4% 32%  
320 3% 29%  
321 3% 25%  
322 3% 22%  
323 3% 19%  
324 2% 17%  
325 3% 15%  
326 2% 12%  
327 2% 10%  
328 1.0% 8%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.1% 6%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.9% 4%  
333 0.6% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.4%  
337 0.3% 1.1%  
338 0.2% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.4%  
244 0.3% 99.1%  
245 0.4% 98.8%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.9% 98%  
248 0.9% 97%  
249 0.7% 96%  
250 1.0% 95%  
251 1.0% 94%  
252 1.3% 93%  
253 2% 92%  
254 3% 90%  
255 2% 87%  
256 3% 85%  
257 2% 82%  
258 3% 80%  
259 3% 77%  
260 2% 74%  
261 2% 71%  
262 6% 69%  
263 4% 63%  
264 5% 59%  
265 7% 53% Median
266 3% 46%  
267 4% 43%  
268 4% 39%  
269 3% 35%  
270 2% 32%  
271 3% 30%  
272 4% 27%  
273 3% 22%  
274 4% 20%  
275 2% 15%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 12%  
278 1.3% 10%  
279 1.3% 9%  
280 1.2% 7%  
281 2% 6%  
282 1.1% 5%  
283 0.7% 3%  
284 0.7% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.4% 1.5%  
287 0.2% 1.1%  
288 0.2% 0.9%  
289 0.1% 0.7%  
290 0.1% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 99.5%  
239 0.2% 99.3%  
240 0.4% 99.1%  
241 0.5% 98.7%  
242 0.6% 98%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.6% 97%  
245 1.3% 97%  
246 1.0% 95%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 1.2% 93%  
249 2% 92%  
250 2% 90%  
251 2% 89%  
252 3% 86%  
253 2% 83%  
254 3% 80%  
255 5% 77%  
256 3% 73%  
257 5% 70%  
258 4% 65%  
259 4% 61%  
260 4% 57%  
261 3% 53% Median
262 5% 50%  
263 3% 45%  
264 4% 42%  
265 3% 37%  
266 4% 34%  
267 4% 30%  
268 4% 26%  
269 3% 22%  
270 3% 19%  
271 2% 16%  
272 2% 13%  
273 2% 11%  
274 1.3% 9%  
275 1.0% 8%  
276 1.2% 7%  
277 1.1% 6%  
278 1.1% 5%  
279 0.8% 4%  
280 0.5% 3%  
281 0.7% 2%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.2%  
284 0.2% 0.9%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.5%  
170 0.3% 99.3%  
171 0.4% 99.1%  
172 0.4% 98.7%  
173 0.8% 98%  
174 0.8% 97%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 1.3% 95%  
177 1.3% 94%  
178 1.2% 93%  
179 2% 92%  
180 2% 89%  
181 3% 88%  
182 3% 85%  
183 3% 82%  
184 4% 79%  
185 3% 75%  
186 5% 71%  
187 5% 66%  
188 5% 61%  
189 4% 56%  
190 4% 52% Median
191 4% 48%  
192 3% 43%  
193 4% 40%  
194 4% 36%  
195 5% 32%  
196 4% 27%  
197 3% 23%  
198 4% 20%  
199 3% 16%  
200 2% 13%  
201 2% 11%  
202 2% 9%  
203 1.4% 8%  
204 1.2% 6%  
205 0.8% 5%  
206 1.1% 4%  
207 0.9% 3%  
208 0.4% 2%  
209 0.5% 2%  
210 0.5% 1.5%  
211 0.3% 1.0%  
212 0.2% 0.7%  
213 0.2% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0.1% 0.3%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.3% 99.3%  
149 0.4% 99.0%  
150 0.4% 98.6%  
151 0.8% 98%  
152 0.8% 97%  
153 1.3% 97%  
154 1.0% 95%  
155 1.3% 94%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 91%  
158 3% 88%  
159 2% 85%  
160 2% 83%  
161 3% 80%  
162 6% 77%  
163 4% 71%  
164 4% 66%  
165 4% 62%  
166 4% 58%  
167 6% 54% Median
168 4% 48%  
169 5% 44%  
170 4% 39%  
171 4% 36%  
172 6% 32%  
173 4% 26%  
174 2% 21%  
175 2% 19%  
176 4% 17%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 1.0% 7%  
181 0.9% 6%  
182 1.5% 5%  
183 0.8% 4%  
184 0.7% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.2%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations