Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 21–24 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 167 157–176 155–178 154–181 149–185
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 147 140–164 138–166 137–167 135–170
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 110 102–120 100–122 99–123 95–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 98 91–105 89–108 87–110 85–113
Die Linke 69 80 72–88 71–89 70–92 67–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–60 45–61 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 44–56 42–57 42–59 39–61

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.2% 99.3%  
151 0.3% 99.1%  
152 0.7% 98.8%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 0.8% 98%  
155 2% 97%  
156 4% 95%  
157 1.3% 91%  
158 2% 90%  
159 3% 88%  
160 5% 85%  
161 2% 80%  
162 3% 78%  
163 7% 75%  
164 5% 68%  
165 2% 63%  
166 9% 61%  
167 4% 51% Median
168 9% 47%  
169 3% 38%  
170 7% 35%  
171 4% 29%  
172 2% 24%  
173 3% 22%  
174 4% 20%  
175 5% 16%  
176 2% 11%  
177 1.3% 9%  
178 4% 8%  
179 1.4% 4%  
180 0.2% 3%  
181 0.8% 3%  
182 0.3% 2%  
183 0.8% 2%  
184 0.2% 0.8%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.2% 99.9%  
135 0.6% 99.6%  
136 1.0% 99.0%  
137 2% 98%  
138 3% 96%  
139 2% 93%  
140 4% 91%  
141 6% 87%  
142 4% 81%  
143 8% 77%  
144 6% 68%  
145 5% 62%  
146 3% 57%  
147 4% 54% Median
148 2% 50%  
149 2% 48%  
150 1.0% 46%  
151 0.5% 45%  
152 0.3% 44%  
153 0.2% 44%  
154 0.5% 44%  
155 0.6% 43%  
156 3% 43%  
157 1.5% 39%  
158 3% 38%  
159 4% 35%  
160 4% 31%  
161 6% 27%  
162 4% 21%  
163 3% 17%  
164 5% 14%  
165 3% 9%  
166 2% 6%  
167 2% 4%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.2%  
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.2% 0.2%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 98.9%  
98 0.5% 98.7%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96%  
101 3% 93%  
102 5% 90%  
103 5% 85%  
104 3% 80%  
105 4% 77%  
106 4% 73%  
107 9% 69%  
108 6% 59%  
109 3% 53%  
110 9% 51% Median
111 4% 42%  
112 4% 38%  
113 3% 34%  
114 3% 31%  
115 5% 27%  
116 4% 23%  
117 2% 19%  
118 3% 17%  
119 4% 14%  
120 1.4% 10%  
121 2% 9%  
122 4% 6%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.3% 1.0%  
127 0.5% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.6% 99.3%  
87 1.3% 98.7%  
88 1.0% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 92%  
92 3% 89%  
93 6% 86%  
94 6% 80% Last Result
95 4% 74%  
96 6% 70%  
97 8% 64%  
98 8% 56% Median
99 8% 48%  
100 10% 40%  
101 5% 30%  
102 4% 25%  
103 4% 20%  
104 4% 16%  
105 3% 12%  
106 2% 10%  
107 2% 8%  
108 2% 6%  
109 0.6% 4%  
110 0.8% 3%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.2%  
113 0.3% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 0.5% 98.9%  
69 0.8% 98% Last Result
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 95%  
72 2% 91%  
73 5% 90%  
74 4% 84%  
75 7% 80%  
76 5% 73%  
77 6% 68%  
78 5% 63%  
79 6% 58%  
80 7% 52% Median
81 5% 45%  
82 4% 40%  
83 6% 36%  
84 8% 29%  
85 6% 22%  
86 1.1% 16%  
87 3% 15%  
88 5% 11%  
89 2% 6%  
90 0.7% 5%  
91 0.7% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.1% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.7%  
96 0.4% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 1.4% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 2% 93%  
48 3% 91%  
49 5% 88%  
50 9% 84%  
51 8% 74%  
52 13% 67%  
53 14% 54% Median
54 8% 40%  
55 6% 32%  
56 5% 26%  
57 5% 21%  
58 4% 16%  
59 5% 12%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.5%  
64 0.3% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 0.7% 99.1%  
41 0.9% 98%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 4% 91%  
45 5% 87%  
46 7% 82% Last Result
47 9% 76%  
48 6% 66%  
49 8% 60%  
50 8% 52% Median
51 9% 44%  
52 6% 36%  
53 6% 29%  
54 10% 24%  
55 3% 14%  
56 2% 11%  
57 4% 9%  
58 1.3% 5%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 467–488 465–491 462–492 457–498
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 422 100% 407–433 405–436 402–438 398–443
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 368 90% 355–381 351–384 349–385 345–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 365 90% 355–374 350–379 347–383 343–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 357 60% 343–369 341–372 339–375 334–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 352 40% 340–366 337–368 334–370 330–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 329 0.1% 319–342 315–345 313–346 308–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 311 0% 300–322 297–325 294–328 290–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 287–313 284–315 281–318 277–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 277 0% 266–288 264–291 260–293 255–299
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 254 0% 242–266 239–270 236–272 233–276
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 178–202 174–204 173–207 170–210
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 154–173 153–177 152–178 144–180

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.2% 99.7%  
457 0.2% 99.5%  
458 0.4% 99.3%  
459 0.3% 98.9%  
460 0.3% 98.6%  
461 0.4% 98%  
462 0.8% 98%  
463 0.9% 97%  
464 0.9% 96%  
465 1.5% 95%  
466 2% 94% Last Result
467 4% 92%  
468 3% 88%  
469 0.8% 85%  
470 0.4% 84%  
471 2% 84%  
472 5% 82%  
473 5% 78%  
474 4% 73% Median
475 11% 69%  
476 2% 58%  
477 3% 55%  
478 2% 52%  
479 5% 50%  
480 6% 46%  
481 6% 40%  
482 4% 34%  
483 9% 30%  
484 4% 22%  
485 5% 18%  
486 1.0% 13%  
487 0.9% 12%  
488 2% 11%  
489 2% 9%  
490 3% 8%  
491 2% 5%  
492 1.0% 3%  
493 0.3% 2%  
494 0.4% 2%  
495 0% 1.5%  
496 0.4% 1.4%  
497 0.3% 1.1%  
498 0.4% 0.8%  
499 0.1% 0.5%  
500 0.1% 0.4%  
501 0.2% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.8%  
398 0.2% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.4%  
400 0.4% 99.3%  
401 0.1% 98.9%  
402 2% 98.7%  
403 0.4% 97%  
404 2% 97%  
405 2% 95%  
406 3% 93%  
407 1.3% 90%  
408 1.5% 89%  
409 3% 87%  
410 2% 84%  
411 2% 82%  
412 2% 80%  
413 2% 78%  
414 3% 76%  
415 5% 73%  
416 4% 68%  
417 2% 65% Median
418 5% 62%  
419 2% 57%  
420 4% 56%  
421 1.3% 52%  
422 7% 51%  
423 2% 44%  
424 4% 43%  
425 3% 38%  
426 3% 35%  
427 4% 32%  
428 2% 28%  
429 2% 27%  
430 2% 24%  
431 4% 22%  
432 7% 18%  
433 2% 12%  
434 2% 10%  
435 0.9% 8%  
436 3% 7%  
437 0.5% 4%  
438 1.2% 3%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.9% 2%  
441 0.2% 1.1%  
442 0.3% 0.9%  
443 0.3% 0.6%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.3% 99.6%  
346 0.3% 99.3%  
347 0.4% 99.0%  
348 0.4% 98.6%  
349 0.9% 98%  
350 1.3% 97%  
351 1.1% 96%  
352 2% 95%  
353 2% 93%  
354 1.3% 92%  
355 3% 90% Majority
356 3% 88%  
357 3% 85%  
358 2% 82%  
359 4% 80%  
360 2% 76%  
361 2% 74%  
362 2% 72%  
363 3% 70%  
364 4% 67% Median
365 6% 63%  
366 3% 57%  
367 3% 54%  
368 3% 51%  
369 3% 48%  
370 5% 46%  
371 4% 41%  
372 4% 37%  
373 2% 34%  
374 3% 31%  
375 1.4% 28%  
376 2% 27%  
377 3% 25%  
378 6% 21%  
379 0.6% 16%  
380 5% 15%  
381 3% 11%  
382 1.2% 7%  
383 0.6% 6%  
384 2% 5%  
385 0.8% 3%  
386 0.7% 2%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.1% 1.1%  
389 0.4% 1.0%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.4% 99.7%  
344 0.4% 99.3%  
345 0.7% 98.9%  
346 0.3% 98%  
347 0.5% 98%  
348 1.3% 97%  
349 0.7% 96%  
350 0.6% 95%  
351 1.1% 95%  
352 1.5% 94%  
353 0.7% 92%  
354 1.2% 91%  
355 1.4% 90% Majority
356 4% 89%  
357 12% 85%  
358 2% 73%  
359 4% 71%  
360 5% 67% Median
361 5% 62%  
362 2% 57%  
363 4% 56%  
364 2% 52%  
365 6% 50%  
366 5% 44%  
367 3% 39%  
368 6% 36%  
369 3% 30%  
370 3% 27%  
371 4% 24%  
372 5% 20%  
373 3% 15%  
374 2% 12%  
375 1.1% 9%  
376 2% 8%  
377 0.5% 7%  
378 0.8% 6%  
379 0.4% 5%  
380 1.1% 5%  
381 0.8% 4%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 1.2% 3%  
384 0.9% 1.5%  
385 0.2% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.6%  
334 0.3% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.2%  
336 0.3% 99.0%  
337 1.1% 98.7%  
338 0.1% 98%  
339 0.7% 98%  
340 2% 97%  
341 1.2% 95%  
342 0.5% 94%  
343 4% 93%  
344 2% 89%  
345 1.2% 88%  
346 4% 87%  
347 3% 82%  
348 1.4% 79%  
349 4% 77%  
350 3% 74%  
351 2% 71%  
352 3% 69%  
353 3% 66%  
354 3% 63%  
355 3% 60% Majority
356 6% 57%  
357 2% 51% Median
358 2% 49%  
359 7% 47%  
360 3% 40%  
361 1.5% 36%  
362 7% 35%  
363 3% 28%  
364 0.8% 25%  
365 5% 24%  
366 2% 19%  
367 3% 18%  
368 4% 15%  
369 1.2% 11%  
370 2% 10%  
371 1.0% 8%  
372 2% 7%  
373 1.0% 5%  
374 0.2% 4%  
375 1.5% 3%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.1% 1.3%  
378 0.6% 1.2%  
379 0.3% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.3% 99.7%  
331 0.6% 99.4%  
332 0.1% 98.8%  
333 0.5% 98.7%  
334 1.5% 98%  
335 0.2% 97%  
336 1.0% 96%  
337 2% 95%  
338 1.0% 93%  
339 2% 92%  
340 1.2% 90%  
341 4% 89%  
342 3% 85%  
343 2% 82%  
344 5% 81%  
345 0.8% 76%  
346 3% 75%  
347 7% 72%  
348 1.5% 65% Median
349 3% 64%  
350 7% 60%  
351 2% 53%  
352 2% 51%  
353 6% 49%  
354 3% 43%  
355 3% 40% Majority
356 3% 37%  
357 3% 34%  
358 2% 31%  
359 3% 29%  
360 4% 26%  
361 1.4% 23%  
362 3% 21%  
363 4% 18%  
364 1.2% 13%  
365 2% 12%  
366 4% 11%  
367 0.5% 7%  
368 1.2% 6%  
369 2% 5%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 1.1% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.3%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.3% 0.8%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.4% 99.6%  
309 0.3% 99.2%  
310 0.1% 98.9%  
311 0.2% 98.8%  
312 0.6% 98.6%  
313 0.9% 98%  
314 2% 97%  
315 0.5% 95%  
316 0.5% 95%  
317 3% 94%  
318 0.9% 91%  
319 0.9% 90%  
320 4% 89%  
321 3% 85%  
322 4% 83%  
323 2% 79%  
324 2% 77%  
325 4% 75%  
326 6% 71%  
327 2% 64%  
328 8% 62%  
329 5% 54%  
330 3% 49% Median
331 3% 46%  
332 2% 43%  
333 5% 41%  
334 6% 36%  
335 2% 30%  
336 4% 28%  
337 8% 25%  
338 2% 17%  
339 1.3% 15%  
340 1.4% 13%  
341 1.5% 12%  
342 3% 11%  
343 0.8% 8%  
344 0.5% 7%  
345 3% 6%  
346 1.2% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.5% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0.2% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0.1% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.5% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 98.8%  
293 0.6% 98.7%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.8% 97%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 2% 96%  
298 0.9% 94%  
299 2% 93%  
300 1.4% 91%  
301 1.3% 90%  
302 1.4% 88%  
303 2% 87%  
304 4% 84%  
305 9% 80%  
306 1.4% 71%  
307 6% 70% Median
308 3% 63%  
309 3% 61%  
310 3% 58%  
311 8% 55%  
312 7% 47%  
313 4% 41%  
314 3% 36%  
315 3% 33%  
316 2% 29%  
317 4% 28%  
318 5% 24%  
319 5% 19%  
320 2% 14%  
321 1.4% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 9%  
324 1.3% 7%  
325 2% 6%  
326 1.2% 4%  
327 0.3% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.0%  
332 0.4% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0.1% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 1.2% 99.0%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 1.3% 97%  
284 2% 96%  
285 2% 94%  
286 1.2% 91%  
287 2% 90%  
288 1.1% 88%  
289 4% 86%  
290 2% 82%  
291 2% 80%  
292 5% 78%  
293 3% 73%  
294 1.3% 69%  
295 3% 68% Median
296 4% 65%  
297 6% 61%  
298 6% 55%  
299 2% 49%  
300 3% 47%  
301 7% 45%  
302 1.4% 37%  
303 3% 36%  
304 2% 33%  
305 4% 31%  
306 2% 27%  
307 3% 25%  
308 1.3% 23%  
309 4% 21%  
310 4% 17%  
311 1.4% 13%  
312 1.3% 12%  
313 4% 10%  
314 2% 7%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.9% 4%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 1.0% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.1%  
321 0.3% 1.0%  
322 0.3% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0.1% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.3% 99.7%  
256 0.4% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.0%  
258 0.6% 98.9%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.5% 97%  
262 0.6% 97%  
263 0.9% 96%  
264 3% 95%  
265 2% 92%  
266 2% 90%  
267 4% 89%  
268 2% 85%  
269 2% 82%  
270 3% 80%  
271 4% 77%  
272 3% 73%  
273 5% 70%  
274 3% 65%  
275 7% 62%  
276 4% 55%  
277 2% 51% Median
278 7% 48%  
279 3% 41%  
280 3% 38%  
281 6% 35%  
282 4% 29%  
283 2% 26%  
284 4% 24%  
285 5% 19%  
286 1.3% 14%  
287 3% 13%  
288 0.8% 10%  
289 2% 9%  
290 0.9% 7%  
291 1.3% 6%  
292 2% 5%  
293 0.8% 3%  
294 0.6% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.2% 1.4%  
297 0.5% 1.2%  
298 0.1% 0.7%  
299 0.3% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.7%  
233 0.3% 99.5%  
234 0.2% 99.3%  
235 0.5% 99.1%  
236 1.5% 98.6%  
237 1.1% 97%  
238 0.3% 96%  
239 3% 96%  
240 2% 93%  
241 0.5% 91%  
242 2% 90%  
243 3% 88%  
244 2% 85%  
245 1.4% 83%  
246 2% 82%  
247 10% 80%  
248 4% 70%  
249 2% 67%  
250 4% 65% Median
251 3% 61%  
252 0.9% 58%  
253 3% 57%  
254 7% 54%  
255 4% 47%  
256 0.7% 43%  
257 3% 42%  
258 7% 40%  
259 3% 32%  
260 2% 29%  
261 3% 28%  
262 3% 25%  
263 0.6% 21%  
264 4% 21%  
265 4% 17%  
266 4% 12%  
267 0.6% 9%  
268 1.1% 8%  
269 1.3% 7%  
270 2% 5%  
271 0.8% 4%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.6% 2%  
274 0.3% 2%  
275 0.2% 1.4%  
276 0.9% 1.2%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.3% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.5%  
170 0.2% 99.5%  
171 0.2% 99.3%  
172 0.5% 99.1%  
173 2% 98.6%  
174 1.5% 96%  
175 0.5% 95%  
176 0.6% 94%  
177 2% 94%  
178 5% 91%  
179 3% 86%  
180 4% 83%  
181 2% 79%  
182 2% 78%  
183 3% 76%  
184 4% 73%  
185 4% 69%  
186 4% 65%  
187 1.4% 62%  
188 3% 60%  
189 3% 57%  
190 6% 54% Median
191 5% 48%  
192 2% 43%  
193 2% 41%  
194 5% 39%  
195 6% 34%  
196 3% 28%  
197 2% 25%  
198 1.5% 23%  
199 3% 22%  
200 7% 19%  
201 2% 12%  
202 2% 11%  
203 0.8% 9%  
204 4% 8%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.3% 3%  
207 0.6% 3%  
208 0.8% 2%  
209 0.7% 1.4%  
210 0.3% 0.6%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.5%  
145 0% 99.5%  
146 0.1% 99.4%  
147 0.1% 99.4%  
148 0.3% 99.2%  
149 0.2% 98.9%  
150 0.4% 98.7%  
151 0.4% 98%  
152 2% 98%  
153 3% 96%  
154 4% 93%  
155 10% 89%  
156 3% 79%  
157 2% 76%  
158 2% 74%  
159 4% 72%  
160 14% 67%  
161 5% 54%  
162 7% 48%  
163 2% 42% Median
164 2% 39%  
165 3% 38%  
166 3% 35%  
167 2% 32%  
168 1.0% 31%  
169 0.6% 30%  
170 5% 29%  
171 3% 24%  
172 8% 21%  
173 4% 14%  
174 3% 10%  
175 0.7% 7%  
176 0.8% 6%  
177 2% 6%  
178 2% 3%  
179 0.9% 2%  
180 0.3% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations