Opinion Poll by Kantar, 27 February–4 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.9%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 19.5% 18.2–20.9% 17.9–21.3% 17.6–21.7% 16.9–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.1% 14.6–19.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.5–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.5% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.2–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 167 158–178 154–180 152–184 146–189
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 149 138–159 136–162 133–165 130–169
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 121–139 117–143 114–146 110–150
Alternative für Deutschland 94 106 98–115 96–118 93–121 89–125
Die Linke 69 68 61–77 60–78 58–80 54–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 48–60 45–63 44–65 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 29–40 28–41 27–43 25–46

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.3% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.5%  
146 0% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.7% 99.3%  
149 0.2% 98.6%  
150 0.3% 98%  
151 0.3% 98%  
152 0.4% 98%  
153 0.9% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 0.9% 94%  
156 0.2% 93%  
157 0.9% 93%  
158 12% 92%  
159 2% 80%  
160 1.4% 78%  
161 3% 76%  
162 3% 74%  
163 2% 70%  
164 4% 68%  
165 12% 64%  
166 2% 52%  
167 3% 50% Median
168 7% 47%  
169 6% 41%  
170 2% 35%  
171 1.2% 33%  
172 2% 32%  
173 3% 31%  
174 7% 28%  
175 7% 21%  
176 0.8% 14%  
177 0.6% 14%  
178 5% 13%  
179 2% 8%  
180 0.9% 6%  
181 1.0% 5%  
182 0.5% 4%  
183 0.5% 4%  
184 1.1% 3%  
185 1.0% 2%  
186 0.1% 0.9%  
187 0% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.4% 99.3%  
132 0.8% 98.9%  
133 0.9% 98%  
134 0.8% 97%  
135 0.8% 97%  
136 1.4% 96%  
137 3% 94%  
138 2% 91%  
139 2% 90%  
140 2% 88%  
141 3% 86%  
142 3% 83%  
143 10% 81%  
144 7% 71%  
145 4% 63%  
146 2% 60%  
147 3% 58%  
148 4% 55%  
149 3% 50% Median
150 8% 47%  
151 3% 39%  
152 4% 36%  
153 1.2% 32%  
154 5% 31%  
155 10% 26%  
156 2% 16%  
157 2% 14%  
158 2% 12%  
159 0.5% 10%  
160 2% 9%  
161 3% 8%  
162 0.3% 5%  
163 1.2% 5%  
164 0.6% 3%  
165 0.4% 3%  
166 1.3% 2%  
167 0.2% 1.2%  
168 0.2% 1.0%  
169 0.3% 0.8%  
170 0% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.2% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.4%  
112 0.2% 99.2%  
113 1.5% 99.1%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 0.6% 97%  
116 0.3% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 0.8% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 1.1% 91%  
121 2% 90%  
122 3% 88%  
123 3% 85%  
124 2% 82%  
125 5% 80%  
126 3% 75%  
127 6% 72%  
128 9% 67%  
129 8% 58% Median
130 2% 50%  
131 16% 47%  
132 4% 31%  
133 2% 27%  
134 4% 25%  
135 4% 21%  
136 1.1% 17%  
137 4% 16%  
138 2% 12%  
139 2% 11%  
140 2% 9%  
141 2% 7%  
142 0.4% 5%  
143 1.3% 5%  
144 0.7% 4%  
145 0.5% 3%  
146 0.9% 3%  
147 0.8% 2%  
148 0.1% 0.9%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.2% 99.5%  
91 0.6% 99.2%  
92 0.4% 98.6%  
93 1.4% 98%  
94 0.8% 97% Last Result
95 0.6% 96%  
96 0.6% 95%  
97 2% 95%  
98 4% 93%  
99 1.3% 89%  
100 4% 88%  
101 3% 84%  
102 4% 81%  
103 5% 77%  
104 14% 72%  
105 5% 59%  
106 6% 53% Median
107 2% 47%  
108 2% 45%  
109 8% 42%  
110 3% 34%  
111 13% 31%  
112 4% 19%  
113 1.0% 15%  
114 3% 14%  
115 2% 11%  
116 1.4% 9%  
117 1.4% 7%  
118 2% 6%  
119 0.8% 4%  
120 0.4% 3%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.3% 2%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.1% 0.8%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.2% 99.5%  
56 0.4% 99.2%  
57 0.6% 98.8%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 0.7% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 4% 93%  
62 7% 89%  
63 4% 82%  
64 4% 78%  
65 6% 74%  
66 4% 68%  
67 4% 64%  
68 12% 60% Median
69 6% 48% Last Result
70 9% 43%  
71 2% 33%  
72 9% 31%  
73 4% 22%  
74 2% 18%  
75 4% 17%  
76 2% 13%  
77 3% 11%  
78 4% 8%  
79 1.5% 4%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.5%  
83 0.1% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.6%  
42 0.1% 99.4%  
43 0.5% 99.3%  
44 1.3% 98.8%  
45 3% 97%  
46 2% 94%  
47 2% 93%  
48 3% 91%  
49 7% 89%  
50 16% 82%  
51 2% 66%  
52 2% 63%  
53 6% 62%  
54 9% 56% Median
55 17% 47%  
56 2% 29%  
57 4% 28%  
58 3% 24%  
59 9% 20%  
60 5% 12%  
61 1.0% 7%  
62 0.4% 6%  
63 1.1% 6%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.2% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.7%  
26 1.0% 98.8%  
27 1.1% 98%  
28 4% 97%  
29 5% 93%  
30 3% 89%  
31 4% 86%  
32 12% 82%  
33 9% 70%  
34 7% 62%  
35 10% 54% Median
36 16% 45%  
37 10% 29%  
38 3% 19%  
39 4% 16%  
40 5% 12%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 469–492 465–495 462–498 456–503
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 404 100% 393–417 389–421 385–424 379–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 365 90% 355–378 351–383 347–386 341–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 365 87% 353–379 349–380 346–384 341–390
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 350 33% 338–363 334–366 331–369 326–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 351 31% 339–363 335–366 331–369 327–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 344 13% 330–356 329–360 325–363 319–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 313 0% 301–326 297–328 294–331 288–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 296 0% 285–308 281–312 278–315 272–321
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 278–301 275–306 271–309 266–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 235 0% 226–249 223–253 220–256 213–261
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 199 0% 187–210 184–213 180–215 177–222
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 185 0% 172–194 170–199 168–201 162–205

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.5% 99.7%  
457 0.2% 99.2%  
458 0.2% 99.0%  
459 0.3% 98.8%  
460 0.4% 98.5%  
461 0.2% 98%  
462 0.8% 98%  
463 0.4% 97%  
464 0.6% 97%  
465 1.3% 96%  
466 0.6% 95% Last Result
467 2% 94%  
468 1.5% 93%  
469 2% 91%  
470 4% 89%  
471 2% 85%  
472 3% 83%  
473 3% 80%  
474 3% 77%  
475 9% 73%  
476 3% 64%  
477 1.1% 60%  
478 2% 59%  
479 1.4% 57%  
480 3% 56% Median
481 9% 53%  
482 5% 44%  
483 7% 39%  
484 2% 32%  
485 2% 30%  
486 3% 28%  
487 3% 25%  
488 8% 22%  
489 2% 14%  
490 1.1% 12%  
491 0.5% 11%  
492 1.1% 10%  
493 2% 9%  
494 3% 8%  
495 1.4% 5%  
496 0.8% 4%  
497 0.2% 3%  
498 1.0% 3%  
499 0.6% 2%  
500 0.4% 1.4%  
501 0.2% 0.9%  
502 0.1% 0.7%  
503 0.1% 0.6%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.4%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0.1% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.1% 99.4%  
381 0.2% 99.3%  
382 0.2% 99.1%  
383 0.8% 99.0%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.8% 98%  
386 0.5% 97%  
387 0.5% 97%  
388 0.8% 96%  
389 2% 95%  
390 0.7% 94%  
391 0.5% 93%  
392 2% 92%  
393 4% 91% Last Result
394 2% 86%  
395 1.3% 85%  
396 2% 84%  
397 2% 81%  
398 3% 79%  
399 11% 77%  
400 4% 66%  
401 3% 62%  
402 2% 60%  
403 1.2% 58%  
404 12% 56%  
405 4% 45% Median
406 4% 41%  
407 3% 37%  
408 2% 34%  
409 2% 33%  
410 9% 30%  
411 1.4% 22%  
412 2% 20%  
413 1.4% 18%  
414 3% 17%  
415 2% 13%  
416 1.1% 11%  
417 0.7% 10%  
418 2% 9%  
419 0.8% 8%  
420 2% 7%  
421 2% 5%  
422 0.6% 4%  
423 0.2% 3%  
424 0.7% 3%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.9% 2%  
427 0.1% 0.9%  
428 0.1% 0.8%  
429 0.2% 0.7%  
430 0.2% 0.5%  
431 0.2% 0.4%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.3% 99.4%  
344 0.8% 99.2%  
345 0.4% 98%  
346 0.2% 98%  
347 0.5% 98%  
348 0.4% 97%  
349 0.1% 97%  
350 0.5% 97%  
351 2% 96%  
352 0.8% 95%  
353 2% 94%  
354 2% 92%  
355 6% 90% Majority
356 2% 84%  
357 1.5% 83%  
358 3% 81%  
359 1.1% 78%  
360 1.3% 77%  
361 3% 76%  
362 2% 73%  
363 7% 71%  
364 3% 64%  
365 11% 60%  
366 4% 50%  
367 3% 45% Median
368 2% 42%  
369 3% 40%  
370 3% 37%  
371 1.0% 35%  
372 4% 34%  
373 3% 30%  
374 2% 27%  
375 4% 24%  
376 2% 21%  
377 9% 19%  
378 1.2% 10%  
379 2% 9%  
380 0.7% 7%  
381 0.6% 6%  
382 0.5% 6%  
383 0.2% 5%  
384 2% 5%  
385 0.3% 3%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.5% 1.4%  
389 0.3% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.1% 99.1%  
344 0.7% 99.1%  
345 0.7% 98%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 0.9% 96%  
349 0.7% 95%  
350 0.7% 95%  
351 2% 94%  
352 1.3% 92%  
353 2% 91%  
354 2% 88%  
355 2% 87% Majority
356 0.8% 85%  
357 2% 84%  
358 2% 82%  
359 7% 80%  
360 2% 72%  
361 4% 70%  
362 2% 66%  
363 4% 64%  
364 9% 60% Median
365 8% 51%  
366 0.7% 43%  
367 5% 42%  
368 5% 37%  
369 1.1% 32%  
370 4% 31%  
371 2% 27%  
372 3% 26%  
373 2% 23%  
374 3% 21%  
375 0.8% 17%  
376 1.5% 16%  
377 3% 15%  
378 1.3% 12%  
379 5% 11%  
380 0.8% 6%  
381 1.0% 5%  
382 0.4% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.5% 1.2%  
389 0.1% 0.7%  
390 0.2% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.7%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.3% 99.3%  
329 0.4% 99.0%  
330 0.3% 98.7%  
331 1.1% 98%  
332 0.8% 97%  
333 1.0% 97%  
334 2% 96%  
335 0.6% 94%  
336 2% 93%  
337 0.6% 92%  
338 3% 91%  
339 0.9% 89%  
340 2% 88%  
341 3% 86%  
342 1.3% 83%  
343 2% 82%  
344 11% 80%  
345 2% 69%  
346 3% 68%  
347 5% 64%  
348 2% 59%  
349 2% 57%  
350 9% 56%  
351 3% 47% Median
352 2% 44%  
353 4% 42%  
354 5% 38%  
355 3% 33% Majority
356 2% 29%  
357 4% 27%  
358 1.1% 23%  
359 2% 22%  
360 6% 20%  
361 0.6% 14%  
362 1.0% 13%  
363 2% 12%  
364 2% 10%  
365 3% 8%  
366 1.2% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.9% 4%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.2% 1.5%  
373 0.4% 1.3%  
374 0.1% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0% 0.7%  
377 0.3% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.2% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0% 99.5%  
327 0.4% 99.5%  
328 0.2% 99.1%  
329 0.5% 98.9%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.3% 97%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 0.2% 96%  
335 2% 96%  
336 0.4% 94%  
337 0.8% 93%  
338 2% 92%  
339 3% 90%  
340 0.8% 87%  
341 3% 86%  
342 0.5% 83%  
343 7% 83%  
344 2% 75%  
345 4% 73%  
346 3% 70%  
347 5% 66%  
348 1.3% 62%  
349 2% 60%  
350 2% 58% Median
351 12% 56%  
352 3% 44%  
353 6% 41%  
354 4% 35%  
355 2% 31% Majority
356 3% 29%  
357 8% 27%  
358 0.5% 19%  
359 3% 18%  
360 0.9% 16%  
361 1.0% 15%  
362 4% 14%  
363 2% 10%  
364 0.6% 8%  
365 0.1% 7%  
366 2% 7%  
367 0.5% 5%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 1.3% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.5%  
373 0.6% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 0.7%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.2% 99.6%  
320 0.1% 99.4%  
321 0.5% 99.3%  
322 0.4% 98.8%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.4% 97%  
328 1.0% 96%  
329 0.8% 95%  
330 5% 94%  
331 1.3% 89%  
332 3% 88%  
333 1.5% 85%  
334 0.8% 84%  
335 3% 83%  
336 2% 79%  
337 3% 77%  
338 2% 74%  
339 4% 73%  
340 1.1% 69%  
341 5% 68%  
342 5% 63%  
343 0.7% 58%  
344 8% 57% Median
345 9% 49%  
346 4% 40%  
347 2% 36%  
348 4% 34%  
349 2% 30%  
350 7% 28%  
351 2% 20%  
352 2% 18%  
353 0.8% 16%  
354 2% 15%  
355 2% 13% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 1.3% 9%  
358 2% 8%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 0.7% 5%  
361 0.9% 5%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.7% 2%  
365 0.7% 2%  
366 0.1% 0.9%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.2% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.6% 99.5%  
290 0.2% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.6%  
292 0.3% 98.5%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 1.0% 98%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.2% 96%  
297 2% 96%  
298 0.9% 94%  
299 0.6% 93%  
300 0.5% 93%  
301 3% 92%  
302 1.4% 89%  
303 4% 88%  
304 0.5% 85%  
305 8% 84%  
306 1.5% 76%  
307 0.3% 74%  
308 5% 74%  
309 2% 69%  
310 12% 67%  
311 3% 55%  
312 1.2% 53%  
313 10% 51% Median
314 4% 42%  
315 3% 38%  
316 1.3% 35%  
317 1.1% 33%  
318 4% 32%  
319 3% 28%  
320 2% 25%  
321 1.2% 23%  
322 2% 22%  
323 7% 19%  
324 0.8% 12%  
325 0.9% 11%  
326 4% 10%  
327 1.1% 7%  
328 1.0% 6%  
329 0.3% 5%  
330 1.2% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.5% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.9% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.5%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.2% 99.1%  
276 0.3% 98.8%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.9% 98%  
279 0.2% 97%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 2% 96%  
282 1.4% 94%  
283 0.7% 93%  
284 0.7% 92%  
285 1.4% 91%  
286 3% 90%  
287 1.1% 86%  
288 3% 85%  
289 7% 82%  
290 3% 75%  
291 2% 72%  
292 4% 70%  
293 3% 66%  
294 2% 63%  
295 3% 61%  
296 10% 58% Median
297 4% 48%  
298 3% 44%  
299 7% 42%  
300 1.4% 35%  
301 0.8% 33%  
302 1.2% 32%  
303 9% 31%  
304 1.2% 22%  
305 2% 21%  
306 0.5% 19%  
307 7% 18%  
308 1.2% 11%  
309 2% 10%  
310 0.2% 8%  
311 3% 8%  
312 0.4% 5%  
313 1.1% 5%  
314 0.3% 4%  
315 0.9% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.4%  
319 0.5% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.6%  
267 0.3% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.2%  
269 0.5% 99.1%  
270 1.0% 98.6%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.6% 97%  
274 0.9% 96%  
275 0.7% 96%  
276 1.0% 95%  
277 3% 94%  
278 1.3% 91%  
279 1.5% 89%  
280 8% 88%  
281 2% 80%  
282 1.2% 78%  
283 2% 77%  
284 3% 74%  
285 2% 71%  
286 2% 69%  
287 3% 67%  
288 4% 64%  
289 3% 59%  
290 11% 57% Median
291 2% 46%  
292 3% 43%  
293 2% 40%  
294 6% 37%  
295 2% 32%  
296 8% 29%  
297 3% 21%  
298 2% 19%  
299 4% 17%  
300 0.9% 13%  
301 2% 12%  
302 1.0% 10%  
303 1.0% 9%  
304 1.2% 8%  
305 1.3% 7%  
306 0.4% 5%  
307 0.8% 5%  
308 0.7% 4%  
309 2% 3%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.0%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.2% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.2% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.2% 99.6%  
214 0% 99.4%  
215 0.7% 99.4%  
216 0.1% 98.7%  
217 0.3% 98.7%  
218 0.3% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.5% 98%  
221 2% 97%  
222 0.6% 96%  
223 0.8% 95%  
224 1.4% 94%  
225 1.0% 93%  
226 7% 92%  
227 1.2% 85%  
228 2% 84%  
229 2% 81%  
230 2% 79%  
231 2% 77%  
232 5% 75%  
233 2% 70%  
234 10% 68%  
235 9% 58%  
236 5% 50%  
237 3% 45%  
238 0.9% 42% Median
239 4% 41%  
240 0.9% 37%  
241 3% 36%  
242 2% 33%  
243 4% 31%  
244 1.1% 27%  
245 3% 26%  
246 10% 23%  
247 2% 14%  
248 1.2% 11%  
249 3% 10%  
250 1.3% 8%  
251 0.4% 6%  
252 0.7% 6%  
253 1.2% 5%  
254 1.1% 4%  
255 0.2% 3%  
256 0.4% 3%  
257 0.9% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.4%  
259 0.3% 1.1%  
260 0.2% 0.9%  
261 0.2% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0.2% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.8%  
174 0% 99.8%  
175 0% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.2% 99.7%  
178 0.6% 99.4%  
179 0.9% 98.8%  
180 2% 98%  
181 0.2% 96%  
182 0.4% 96%  
183 0.2% 96%  
184 0.4% 95%  
185 2% 95%  
186 2% 93%  
187 2% 91%  
188 0.5% 89%  
189 1.0% 89%  
190 6% 88%  
191 1.0% 82%  
192 6% 81%  
193 4% 75%  
194 8% 71%  
195 1.3% 63%  
196 0.9% 61%  
197 2% 61% Median
198 0.5% 59%  
199 15% 58%  
200 2% 43%  
201 16% 41%  
202 1.0% 24%  
203 4% 23%  
204 0.3% 19%  
205 0.5% 18%  
206 2% 18%  
207 1.3% 16%  
208 3% 14%  
209 0.5% 11%  
210 3% 10%  
211 0.3% 7%  
212 1.1% 7%  
213 2% 6%  
214 1.0% 4%  
215 1.4% 3%  
216 0.6% 2%  
217 0.2% 2%  
218 0.1% 1.3%  
219 0.1% 1.2%  
220 0.2% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 1.0%  
222 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.8%  
162 0.5% 99.6%  
163 0.5% 99.2%  
164 0.3% 98.7%  
165 0.1% 98%  
166 0.1% 98%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 0.4% 98%  
169 0.7% 97%  
170 3% 97%  
171 3% 94%  
172 3% 91%  
173 0.8% 89%  
174 0.9% 88%  
175 0.7% 87%  
176 4% 86%  
177 2% 82%  
178 12% 81%  
179 7% 69%  
180 2% 62%  
181 1.5% 60%  
182 3% 59%  
183 2% 56% Median
184 2% 55%  
185 9% 52%  
186 14% 43%  
187 6% 29%  
188 2% 23%  
189 0.9% 21%  
190 0.9% 20%  
191 2% 19%  
192 2% 16%  
193 4% 14%  
194 3% 10%  
195 2% 8%  
196 0.4% 6%  
197 0.5% 6%  
198 0.2% 5%  
199 0.3% 5%  
200 0.6% 5%  
201 2% 4%  
202 0.9% 2%  
203 0.7% 1.3%  
204 0.1% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.2% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations