Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4–11 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 19.8–22.6% 19.4–23.0% 19.1–23.4% 18.5–24.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.5% 19.3–22.9% 19.0–23.2% 18.3–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.5–19.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 14.0% 12.9–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 160 151–172 147–175 145–176 140–183
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 149–169 145–173 144–176 139–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 121–139 117–142 114–145 110–149
Alternative für Deutschland 94 107 98–116 96–119 94–121 89–125
Die Linke 69 60 55–69 53–71 51–74 48–76
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–61 45–62 44–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 32–43 31–46 30–47 27–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.7%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.1% 99.4%  
142 0.4% 99.3%  
143 0.3% 99.0%  
144 0.7% 98.6%  
145 1.5% 98%  
146 0.7% 96%  
147 1.0% 96%  
148 0.5% 95%  
149 0.9% 94%  
150 2% 93%  
151 3% 91%  
152 4% 88%  
153 4% 84%  
154 2% 80%  
155 2% 77%  
156 2% 75%  
157 3% 73%  
158 4% 70%  
159 4% 66%  
160 15% 62% Median
161 6% 47%  
162 5% 41%  
163 2% 36%  
164 3% 35%  
165 2% 32%  
166 4% 30%  
167 4% 26%  
168 5% 22%  
169 4% 17%  
170 0.7% 13%  
171 2% 12%  
172 1.3% 11%  
173 2% 9%  
174 2% 7%  
175 2% 5%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.1% 1.2%  
180 0.1% 1.1%  
181 0.2% 0.9%  
182 0.2% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.2% 0.4%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.1% 99.4%  
142 0.3% 99.2%  
143 0.7% 98.9%  
144 2% 98%  
145 2% 96%  
146 2% 94%  
147 0.4% 92%  
148 1.2% 92%  
149 1.4% 91%  
150 2% 89%  
151 2% 88%  
152 3% 85%  
153 3% 83%  
154 2% 80%  
155 0.8% 78%  
156 3% 77%  
157 0.9% 74%  
158 9% 73%  
159 4% 64%  
160 14% 60% Median
161 6% 46%  
162 2% 40%  
163 2% 37%  
164 2% 35%  
165 4% 34%  
166 8% 29%  
167 3% 21%  
168 5% 18%  
169 3% 13%  
170 0.9% 9%  
171 0.5% 8%  
172 3% 8%  
173 0.5% 5%  
174 1.0% 5%  
175 1.0% 4%  
176 1.0% 3%  
177 0.2% 2%  
178 0.1% 1.5%  
179 0.2% 1.4%  
180 0.3% 1.2%  
181 0.2% 0.9%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.6% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.1%  
112 0.3% 98.9%  
113 0.2% 98.6%  
114 2% 98%  
115 0.4% 97%  
116 0.9% 97%  
117 0.8% 96%  
118 1.1% 95%  
119 2% 94%  
120 1.4% 92%  
121 2% 90%  
122 7% 89%  
123 2% 81%  
124 7% 79%  
125 8% 72%  
126 4% 65%  
127 2% 61%  
128 3% 59%  
129 14% 56% Median
130 4% 42%  
131 2% 38%  
132 7% 36%  
133 4% 29%  
134 1.2% 25%  
135 1.5% 24%  
136 5% 22%  
137 4% 17%  
138 3% 13%  
139 2% 10%  
140 1.4% 8%  
141 2% 7%  
142 0.5% 5%  
143 2% 5%  
144 0.3% 3%  
145 1.2% 3%  
146 0.3% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.3%  
148 0.2% 0.7%  
149 0.1% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.1% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.3%  
92 0.6% 99.0%  
93 0.4% 98%  
94 0.6% 98% Last Result
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 2% 92%  
98 3% 90%  
99 2% 88%  
100 3% 86%  
101 4% 83%  
102 6% 79%  
103 11% 73%  
104 6% 62%  
105 2% 56%  
106 3% 54%  
107 3% 51% Median
108 3% 48%  
109 5% 45%  
110 15% 40%  
111 5% 25%  
112 3% 19%  
113 1.4% 17%  
114 2% 15%  
115 2% 13%  
116 1.1% 11%  
117 2% 10%  
118 2% 8%  
119 2% 6%  
120 1.3% 4%  
121 0.7% 3%  
122 1.3% 2%  
123 0.5% 1.2%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.1% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 1.1% 98%  
52 0.5% 97%  
53 1.4% 96%  
54 4% 95%  
55 6% 91%  
56 4% 84%  
57 18% 80%  
58 5% 62%  
59 2% 57%  
60 12% 55% Median
61 8% 44%  
62 2% 36%  
63 4% 35%  
64 9% 30%  
65 1.0% 21%  
66 2% 20%  
67 4% 18%  
68 3% 14%  
69 1.1% 11% Last Result
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 0.3% 4%  
73 0.7% 3%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.2% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.3% 99.3%  
43 0.9% 99.0%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 5% 92%  
48 4% 87%  
49 5% 82%  
50 5% 77%  
51 5% 73%  
52 7% 68%  
53 14% 61% Median
54 5% 47%  
55 10% 42%  
56 5% 33%  
57 7% 28%  
58 5% 21%  
59 3% 16%  
60 3% 13%  
61 5% 11%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 0.6% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 0.7% 99.2%  
29 0.3% 98.5%  
30 2% 98%  
31 2% 96%  
32 8% 94%  
33 3% 86%  
34 10% 83%  
35 8% 73%  
36 5% 65%  
37 5% 60%  
38 8% 54% Median
39 4% 46%  
40 20% 42%  
41 6% 22%  
42 5% 16%  
43 2% 11%  
44 3% 9%  
45 0.7% 6%  
46 2% 5% Last Result
47 0.6% 3%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.7%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 489 100% 477–501 472–502 469–505 465–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 413 100% 400–425 395–428 393–431 388–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 382 99.6% 368–394 365–397 361–400 356–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 360 67% 346–371 343–375 340–378 334–384
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 74% 345–370 342–375 339–378 333–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 349 33% 338–363 334–366 331–369 325–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 342 16% 330–356 327–358 323–362 317–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 328 0.3% 314–342 310–344 309–347 304–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 306 0% 292–317 290–321 286–325 280–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 289 0% 277–302 273–304 270–308 265–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 253 0% 240–263 237–267 234–271 228–276
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 188 0% 181–200 174–205 173–208 169–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 182 0% 171–193 170–197 166–201 162–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
457 0% 100%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0% 99.9%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.7%  
464 0.1% 99.7%  
465 0.5% 99.6%  
466 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
467 0.4% 98.6%  
468 0.3% 98%  
469 0.9% 98%  
470 0.3% 97%  
471 0.3% 97%  
472 2% 96%  
473 0.5% 95%  
474 2% 94%  
475 1.0% 92%  
476 0.8% 91%  
477 3% 90%  
478 3% 87%  
479 3% 84%  
480 2% 81%  
481 1.5% 80%  
482 3% 78%  
483 3% 76%  
484 2% 73%  
485 5% 70%  
486 3% 66%  
487 2% 63% Median
488 7% 61%  
489 12% 54%  
490 7% 42%  
491 5% 35%  
492 5% 30%  
493 1.4% 25%  
494 3% 24%  
495 2% 20%  
496 1.3% 19%  
497 2% 17%  
498 0.7% 15%  
499 3% 14%  
500 0.4% 11%  
501 4% 11%  
502 3% 7%  
503 0.6% 4%  
504 0.6% 3%  
505 0.7% 3%  
506 0.3% 2%  
507 0.2% 2%  
508 0.4% 1.3%  
509 0.1% 1.0%  
510 0.2% 0.8%  
511 0.2% 0.7%  
512 0% 0.5%  
513 0.2% 0.5%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0.3% 99.5%  
390 0.6% 99.2%  
391 0.3% 98.6%  
392 0.1% 98%  
393 0.8% 98% Last Result
394 2% 97%  
395 1.2% 95%  
396 1.2% 94%  
397 0.3% 93%  
398 0.9% 93%  
399 1.1% 92%  
400 2% 91%  
401 1.5% 88%  
402 3% 87%  
403 0.6% 83%  
404 2% 83%  
405 2% 81%  
406 4% 79%  
407 3% 76%  
408 4% 72%  
409 5% 69%  
410 2% 64%  
411 2% 63% Median
412 2% 60%  
413 14% 58%  
414 2% 45%  
415 8% 42%  
416 1.1% 34%  
417 3% 33%  
418 3% 30%  
419 8% 27%  
420 1.0% 19%  
421 4% 18%  
422 0.6% 14%  
423 0.9% 13%  
424 0.6% 12%  
425 3% 12%  
426 2% 9%  
427 1.1% 6%  
428 0.6% 5%  
429 0.3% 5%  
430 1.0% 4%  
431 1.0% 3%  
432 1.2% 2%  
433 0.2% 1.2%  
434 0.1% 1.0%  
435 0% 0.9%  
436 0.4% 0.9%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.2% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0.1% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.4% 99.3%  
360 1.1% 98.8%  
361 0.3% 98%  
362 0.6% 97%  
363 0.2% 97%  
364 0.2% 97%  
365 2% 96%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 2% 91%  
369 3% 89%  
370 1.0% 86%  
371 2% 85%  
372 2% 83%  
373 3% 81%  
374 2% 79%  
375 2% 76%  
376 2% 75%  
377 2% 72%  
378 1.4% 70%  
379 5% 69%  
380 4% 63% Median
381 6% 59%  
382 13% 53%  
383 3% 40%  
384 4% 37%  
385 0.8% 33%  
386 4% 32%  
387 4% 28%  
388 4% 24%  
389 1.0% 20%  
390 3% 19%  
391 2% 16%  
392 2% 15%  
393 2% 13%  
394 2% 11%  
395 4% 9%  
396 0.2% 5%  
397 1.0% 5%  
398 0.8% 4%  
399 0.5% 3%  
400 0.8% 3%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.7% 2%  
404 0.1% 1.0%  
405 0.3% 0.9%  
406 0.2% 0.6%  
407 0.2% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.5%  
335 0.1% 99.4%  
336 0.2% 99.3%  
337 0.2% 99.1%  
338 0.8% 98.8%  
339 0.3% 98%  
340 0.5% 98%  
341 0.5% 97%  
342 1.1% 97%  
343 1.4% 96%  
344 0.7% 94%  
345 1.4% 94%  
346 5% 92%  
347 0.9% 87%  
348 3% 87%  
349 1.2% 83%  
350 2% 82%  
351 7% 80%  
352 2% 73%  
353 3% 72%  
354 1.2% 68%  
355 4% 67% Majority
356 4% 64%  
357 1.3% 60%  
358 6% 58% Median
359 2% 52%  
360 3% 50%  
361 2% 48%  
362 2% 46%  
363 14% 44%  
364 0.7% 29%  
365 3% 29%  
366 4% 26%  
367 4% 21%  
368 4% 17%  
369 1.4% 13%  
370 2% 12%  
371 1.4% 10%  
372 0.7% 9%  
373 2% 8%  
374 0.8% 6%  
375 0.7% 5%  
376 1.4% 5%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.1%  
383 0.1% 1.0%  
384 0.4% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.4% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.2%  
335 0.2% 99.0%  
336 0.2% 98.8%  
337 0.1% 98.6%  
338 0.4% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 0.6% 97%  
341 1.5% 97%  
342 1.2% 95%  
343 0.5% 94%  
344 2% 93%  
345 2% 92%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 87%  
348 0.8% 86%  
349 0.9% 85%  
350 2% 84%  
351 1.1% 82%  
352 2% 80%  
353 3% 79%  
354 2% 76%  
355 7% 74% Majority
356 4% 67%  
357 2% 63%  
358 6% 62% Median
359 3% 56%  
360 15% 53%  
361 2% 38%  
362 2% 36%  
363 6% 34%  
364 4% 28%  
365 2% 24%  
366 2% 22%  
367 0.4% 20%  
368 2% 20%  
369 3% 17%  
370 5% 14%  
371 0.5% 9%  
372 0.6% 9%  
373 0.6% 8%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.0% 6%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 0.2% 4%  
378 2% 4%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0.8% 2%  
382 0% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.9%  
384 0.4% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0.1% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.7%  
325 0.4% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.1%  
327 0.2% 99.0%  
328 0.4% 98.9%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.3% 98%  
332 0.6% 97%  
333 1.4% 97%  
334 0.7% 95%  
335 0.8% 95%  
336 2% 94%  
337 0.7% 92%  
338 1.4% 91%  
339 2% 90%  
340 1.4% 88%  
341 4% 87%  
342 4% 83%  
343 4% 79%  
344 3% 74%  
345 0.7% 71%  
346 14% 71%  
347 2% 56%  
348 2% 54%  
349 3% 52% Median
350 2% 50%  
351 6% 48%  
352 1.3% 42%  
353 4% 40%  
354 4% 36%  
355 1.2% 33% Majority
356 3% 32%  
357 2% 28%  
358 7% 27%  
359 2% 20%  
360 1.2% 18%  
361 3% 17%  
362 0.9% 13%  
363 5% 13%  
364 1.4% 8%  
365 0.7% 6%  
366 1.4% 6%  
367 1.1% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.8% 2%  
372 0.2% 1.2%  
373 0.2% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.1% 99.2%  
320 0.5% 99.1%  
321 0.6% 98.5%  
322 0.1% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 1.2% 97%  
326 0.2% 96%  
327 2% 95%  
328 2% 94%  
329 1.0% 92%  
330 2% 91%  
331 2% 90%  
332 3% 88%  
333 2% 85%  
334 3% 83%  
335 1.0% 80%  
336 5% 79%  
337 1.5% 74%  
338 1.5% 73%  
339 4% 71%  
340 6% 68%  
341 1.1% 61%  
342 12% 60% Median
343 3% 48%  
344 5% 45%  
345 3% 40%  
346 2% 37%  
347 2% 34%  
348 7% 32%  
349 0.9% 25%  
350 0.9% 24%  
351 2% 23%  
352 2% 22%  
353 1.5% 20%  
354 2% 18%  
355 4% 16% Majority
356 5% 12%  
357 2% 7%  
358 0.4% 5%  
359 0.7% 5%  
360 0.7% 4%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.2% 3%  
363 0.9% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 1.2%  
366 0.2% 0.9%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.5% 99.0%  
308 0.5% 98.5%  
309 2% 98%  
310 1.4% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 1.1% 93%  
313 1.4% 92%  
314 1.5% 91%  
315 0.8% 89%  
316 2% 88%  
317 0.8% 86%  
318 2% 85%  
319 2% 83%  
320 3% 82%  
321 2% 79%  
322 0.7% 77%  
323 2% 77%  
324 5% 75%  
325 5% 70%  
326 3% 65%  
327 8% 62% Median
328 6% 54%  
329 12% 48%  
330 5% 36%  
331 1.4% 31%  
332 2% 30%  
333 4% 27%  
334 2% 23%  
335 3% 21%  
336 2% 18%  
337 3% 16%  
338 2% 13%  
339 0.3% 12%  
340 0.6% 11%  
341 0.3% 11%  
342 1.1% 10%  
343 4% 9%  
344 1.3% 6%  
345 1.0% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 0.8% 3%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.5% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.3%  
283 0.4% 99.3%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 1.0% 98.6%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.4% 97%  
288 0.8% 97%  
289 0.4% 96%  
290 0.8% 96%  
291 2% 95%  
292 4% 93%  
293 0.9% 89%  
294 5% 88%  
295 0.7% 83%  
296 2% 82%  
297 3% 80%  
298 4% 77%  
299 3% 73%  
300 2% 70%  
301 2% 67%  
302 4% 65%  
303 3% 62%  
304 2% 59%  
305 5% 57% Median
306 6% 52%  
307 1.3% 47%  
308 2% 45%  
309 3% 43%  
310 12% 40%  
311 1.2% 28%  
312 4% 27%  
313 5% 23%  
314 1.3% 18%  
315 3% 17%  
316 3% 14%  
317 2% 11%  
318 3% 9%  
319 0.8% 7%  
320 0.4% 6%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 0.9% 5%  
323 0.3% 4%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 2% 3%  
326 0.2% 2%  
327 0.2% 1.4%  
328 0.1% 1.1%  
329 0.5% 1.1%  
330 0% 0.6%  
331 0.3% 0.5%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.4% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.1%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98.8%  
269 0.8% 98%  
270 0.6% 98%  
271 0.7% 97%  
272 0.4% 96%  
273 1.0% 96%  
274 1.4% 95%  
275 0.8% 94%  
276 1.4% 93%  
277 2% 91%  
278 2% 89%  
279 1.0% 87%  
280 3% 86%  
281 0.5% 84%  
282 3% 83%  
283 5% 80%  
284 2% 75%  
285 8% 73%  
286 3% 64%  
287 2% 62%  
288 2% 60%  
289 13% 58% Median
290 4% 45%  
291 1.5% 40%  
292 2% 39%  
293 3% 37%  
294 4% 34%  
295 2% 30%  
296 5% 28%  
297 2% 23%  
298 5% 21%  
299 3% 16%  
300 0.5% 13%  
301 0.9% 13%  
302 5% 12%  
303 0.3% 7%  
304 2% 7%  
305 0.7% 5%  
306 0.4% 4%  
307 0.4% 4%  
308 1.4% 3%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.4% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.0%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.2% 0.6%  
315 0% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.4% 99.4%  
231 0.3% 99.0%  
232 0.3% 98.7%  
233 0.8% 98%  
234 1.2% 98%  
235 0.4% 96%  
236 0.4% 96%  
237 0.5% 96%  
238 2% 95%  
239 1.0% 93%  
240 3% 92%  
241 1.4% 90%  
242 2% 88%  
243 7% 86%  
244 1.2% 79%  
245 3% 78%  
246 2% 75%  
247 4% 74%  
248 2% 69%  
249 7% 67%  
250 2% 60%  
251 1.2% 58% Median
252 2% 57%  
253 13% 55%  
254 3% 42%  
255 1.4% 39%  
256 3% 37%  
257 5% 34%  
258 7% 28%  
259 0.8% 21%  
260 3% 20%  
261 2% 18%  
262 2% 16%  
263 4% 13%  
264 1.2% 9%  
265 0.8% 8%  
266 2% 7%  
267 2% 5%  
268 0.5% 4%  
269 0.3% 3%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.8% 3%  
272 0.2% 2%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.4%  
275 0.2% 1.1%  
276 0.6% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0.3% 99.7%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.3% 99.2%  
172 0.2% 98.9%  
173 2% 98.7%  
174 2% 97%  
175 0.1% 95%  
176 0.3% 95%  
177 0.6% 94%  
178 1.4% 94%  
179 1.3% 92%  
180 0.6% 91%  
181 9% 90%  
182 0.6% 81%  
183 0.7% 81%  
184 0.5% 80%  
185 9% 80%  
186 17% 71%  
187 0.5% 53%  
188 3% 53%  
189 2% 49% Median
190 2% 48%  
191 2% 45%  
192 5% 43%  
193 8% 39%  
194 2% 31%  
195 2% 29%  
196 2% 27%  
197 4% 25%  
198 5% 21%  
199 1.5% 16%  
200 4% 14%  
201 3% 10%  
202 0.4% 7%  
203 0.4% 6%  
204 0.5% 6%  
205 2% 5%  
206 0.2% 4%  
207 0.6% 4%  
208 1.0% 3%  
209 0.1% 2%  
210 0.1% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0.4% 2%  
213 0.8% 1.1%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.6% 99.5%  
163 0.4% 98.9%  
164 0.3% 98.5%  
165 0.3% 98%  
166 0.8% 98%  
167 0.3% 97%  
168 0.6% 97%  
169 0.4% 96%  
170 2% 96%  
171 7% 93%  
172 2% 87%  
173 3% 85%  
174 2% 83%  
175 2% 81%  
176 2% 79%  
177 3% 77%  
178 3% 75%  
179 5% 72%  
180 6% 66%  
181 2% 61%  
182 14% 59% Median
183 2% 45%  
184 3% 43%  
185 3% 41%  
186 4% 38%  
187 4% 34%  
188 2% 29%  
189 6% 27%  
190 7% 22%  
191 1.4% 15%  
192 3% 14%  
193 1.2% 11%  
194 2% 10%  
195 1.4% 8%  
196 1.2% 7%  
197 0.7% 6%  
198 0.7% 5%  
199 1.1% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.8% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations