Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.3–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 8.0–11.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 170 162–179 160–181 158–184 153–188
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 163 155–172 153–173 150–178 147–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 100–115 99–118 96–120 93–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 96 89–105 87–106 87–108 83–111
Die Linke 69 71 65–77 63–79 61–80 59–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 50 42–52 42–53 42–58 41–59
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–57 45–58 44–60 42–62

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.3% 99.3%  
156 0.6% 99.0%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.8% 98%  
159 1.2% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 3% 93%  
162 3% 91%  
163 5% 87%  
164 4% 82%  
165 4% 78%  
166 5% 74%  
167 3% 69%  
168 4% 66%  
169 5% 63%  
170 8% 57% Median
171 6% 49%  
172 4% 43%  
173 3% 39%  
174 6% 36%  
175 3% 30%  
176 3% 26%  
177 7% 23%  
178 2% 16%  
179 5% 15%  
180 2% 9%  
181 3% 8%  
182 0.6% 4%  
183 0.9% 4%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.3% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 1.2% 99.2%  
150 1.0% 98%  
151 2% 97%  
152 0.4% 95%  
153 0.9% 95%  
154 0.7% 94%  
155 3% 93%  
156 4% 90%  
157 11% 86%  
158 4% 75%  
159 5% 72%  
160 2% 67%  
161 1.4% 65%  
162 4% 64%  
163 11% 60% Median
164 5% 49%  
165 9% 44%  
166 7% 35%  
167 3% 28%  
168 1.0% 26%  
169 2% 25%  
170 4% 23%  
171 6% 19%  
172 5% 13%  
173 3% 7%  
174 0.7% 5%  
175 0.3% 4%  
176 0.6% 4%  
177 0.4% 3%  
178 1.1% 3%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.7% 1.2%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.7% 99.4%  
95 0.3% 98.8%  
96 1.1% 98%  
97 0.4% 97%  
98 2% 97%  
99 1.4% 95%  
100 4% 94%  
101 7% 90%  
102 3% 83%  
103 8% 80%  
104 4% 72%  
105 4% 69%  
106 7% 64%  
107 4% 58%  
108 9% 54% Median
109 3% 44%  
110 10% 41%  
111 5% 31%  
112 7% 27%  
113 6% 19%  
114 2% 13%  
115 3% 11%  
116 0.8% 8%  
117 1.4% 7%  
118 1.2% 6%  
119 1.1% 5%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.4% 1.3%  
122 0.5% 1.0%  
123 0.1% 0.5%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.3%  
85 0.8% 99.0%  
86 0.7% 98%  
87 3% 98%  
88 4% 94%  
89 3% 90%  
90 4% 88%  
91 3% 83%  
92 7% 81%  
93 3% 74%  
94 9% 71% Last Result
95 4% 62%  
96 12% 58% Median
97 5% 47%  
98 8% 42%  
99 10% 33%  
100 2% 23%  
101 3% 21%  
102 2% 18%  
103 3% 15%  
104 2% 12%  
105 4% 10%  
106 1.2% 6%  
107 2% 5%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.4% 1.4%  
110 0.4% 1.0%  
111 0.2% 0.6%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 1.2% 99.3%  
61 0.8% 98%  
62 1.0% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 2% 94%  
65 3% 91%  
66 4% 88%  
67 7% 84%  
68 7% 77%  
69 9% 69% Last Result
70 6% 60%  
71 12% 55% Median
72 6% 43%  
73 8% 36%  
74 5% 29%  
75 4% 24%  
76 6% 19%  
77 5% 13%  
78 1.4% 8%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 9% 98.9%  
43 13% 90%  
44 5% 77%  
45 0.6% 72%  
46 0% 71%  
47 0% 71%  
48 0.4% 71%  
49 8% 71%  
50 28% 62% Median
51 23% 34%  
52 6% 11%  
53 0.4% 5%  
54 0% 5%  
55 0% 5%  
56 0.1% 5%  
57 1.2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.2% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.5%  
43 1.2% 99.2%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 7% 94% Last Result
47 3% 87%  
48 5% 84%  
49 6% 78%  
50 16% 72%  
51 8% 56% Median
52 10% 48%  
53 10% 37%  
54 4% 28%  
55 6% 24%  
56 6% 17%  
57 4% 11%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 492 100% 485–504 480–506 477–507 474–511
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 434 100% 424–445 421–447 418–449 413–454
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 385 100% 375–396 373–399 371–401 364–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 371 98% 361–381 358–385 355–387 350–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 360 73% 349–370 347–373 344–375 339–381
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 349 27% 339–360 336–362 334–365 328–370
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 327 0% 317–337 314–340 310–342 305–347
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 323 0% 313–333 310–336 307–339 303–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 312 0% 301–321 298–324 296–327 291–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 278 0% 268–288 265–291 263–294 258–299
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 264 0% 254–274 250–276 248–279 243–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 170–188 167–190 165–193 161–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 147–164 144–168 143–170 138–174

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.8%  
474 0.2% 99.7%  
475 0.3% 99.5%  
476 1.0% 99.2%  
477 0.9% 98%  
478 0.5% 97%  
479 0.8% 97%  
480 2% 96%  
481 0.8% 94%  
482 1.3% 93%  
483 0.6% 92%  
484 1.1% 91%  
485 1.0% 90%  
486 2% 89%  
487 4% 87%  
488 3% 83%  
489 7% 80%  
490 7% 72%  
491 5% 66%  
492 13% 61% Median
493 7% 48%  
494 3% 41%  
495 9% 38%  
496 2% 29%  
497 4% 27%  
498 2% 22%  
499 0.4% 21%  
500 2% 20%  
501 3% 18%  
502 2% 15%  
503 2% 13%  
504 2% 12%  
505 4% 9%  
506 2% 5%  
507 2% 4%  
508 0.4% 2%  
509 0.9% 2%  
510 0.3% 0.9%  
511 0.2% 0.7%  
512 0.1% 0.4%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.3%  
515 0% 0.3%  
516 0.1% 0.3%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.2%  
520 0% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.6%  
414 0.2% 99.5%  
415 0.1% 99.3%  
416 0.6% 99.1%  
417 0.3% 98.5%  
418 0.9% 98%  
419 0.8% 97%  
420 1.1% 97%  
421 0.9% 95%  
422 1.0% 95%  
423 2% 94%  
424 1.5% 91%  
425 4% 90%  
426 2% 85%  
427 7% 83%  
428 2% 77%  
429 6% 75%  
430 3% 69%  
431 9% 67%  
432 2% 58%  
433 5% 56%  
434 5% 51% Median
435 2% 46%  
436 6% 44%  
437 4% 39%  
438 4% 35%  
439 4% 31%  
440 7% 27%  
441 1.5% 20%  
442 5% 19%  
443 2% 14%  
444 2% 12%  
445 4% 10%  
446 1.3% 7%  
447 2% 5%  
448 0.8% 4%  
449 0.5% 3%  
450 0.7% 2%  
451 0.4% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.1%  
453 0.3% 0.8%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.4% 99.4%  
367 0.2% 99.1%  
368 0.2% 98.9%  
369 0.6% 98.7%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 1.0% 98%  
372 1.1% 97%  
373 0.6% 95%  
374 4% 95%  
375 2% 91%  
376 2% 89%  
377 6% 87%  
378 1.4% 81%  
379 7% 80%  
380 4% 73%  
381 5% 69%  
382 5% 64%  
383 2% 59%  
384 6% 57% Median
385 2% 52%  
386 3% 49%  
387 5% 47%  
388 2% 41%  
389 8% 39%  
390 2% 31%  
391 3% 29%  
392 6% 26%  
393 1.0% 21%  
394 5% 20%  
395 3% 14%  
396 2% 11%  
397 3% 9%  
398 0.6% 7%  
399 2% 6%  
400 0.9% 4%  
401 0.4% 3%  
402 1.0% 2%  
403 0.1% 1.5%  
404 0.6% 1.3%  
405 0.1% 0.8%  
406 0.1% 0.7%  
407 0.2% 0.6%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.4% 99.5%  
352 0.4% 99.1%  
353 0.3% 98.7%  
354 0.5% 98%  
355 0.4% 98% Majority
356 0.8% 97%  
357 1.5% 97%  
358 0.7% 95%  
359 1.1% 94%  
360 3% 93%  
361 2% 91%  
362 3% 89%  
363 1.2% 85%  
364 6% 84%  
365 1.1% 78%  
366 7% 77%  
367 4% 70%  
368 1.4% 66%  
369 8% 65%  
370 5% 57%  
371 6% 52%  
372 3% 45% Median
373 2% 43%  
374 8% 40%  
375 2% 33%  
376 5% 31%  
377 3% 26%  
378 3% 22%  
379 6% 19%  
380 0.8% 13%  
381 3% 12%  
382 2% 10%  
383 1.0% 8%  
384 2% 7%  
385 2% 5%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0.7% 2%  
389 0.4% 1.4%  
390 0.2% 1.0%  
391 0.3% 0.9%  
392 0.2% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.2% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.6%  
339 0.2% 99.5%  
340 0.1% 99.4%  
341 0.4% 99.2%  
342 0.3% 98.8%  
343 0.9% 98%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.4% 97%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 2% 96%  
348 3% 94%  
349 2% 92%  
350 1.3% 89%  
351 2% 88%  
352 5% 86%  
353 3% 81%  
354 6% 78%  
355 4% 73% Majority
356 5% 69%  
357 6% 64%  
358 4% 59%  
359 3% 55%  
360 4% 52% Median
361 3% 47%  
362 10% 45%  
363 5% 34%  
364 1.4% 29%  
365 3% 28%  
366 4% 24%  
367 2% 21%  
368 3% 19%  
369 4% 15%  
370 2% 11%  
371 1.2% 9%  
372 3% 8%  
373 0.9% 5%  
374 0.9% 4%  
375 1.1% 3%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.9% 2%  
378 0.2% 1.1%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.2% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.6%  
329 0.2% 99.5%  
330 0.2% 99.3%  
331 0.2% 99.1%  
332 0.9% 98.9%  
333 0.2% 98%  
334 1.1% 98%  
335 0.9% 97%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 3% 95%  
338 1.2% 92%  
339 2% 91%  
340 4% 89%  
341 3% 85%  
342 2% 81%  
343 4% 79%  
344 3% 76%  
345 1.4% 72%  
346 5% 71%  
347 10% 66%  
348 3% 55%  
349 4% 53% Median
350 3% 48%  
351 4% 45%  
352 6% 41%  
353 5% 36%  
354 4% 31%  
355 6% 27% Majority
356 3% 22%  
357 5% 19%  
358 2% 14%  
359 1.3% 12%  
360 2% 11%  
361 3% 8%  
362 2% 6%  
363 0.7% 4%  
364 0.4% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.9% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.4% 1.2%  
369 0.1% 0.8%  
370 0.2% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.2% 0.4%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9% Last Result
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.2% 99.6%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.3% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.5% 98.9%  
310 0.9% 98%  
311 0.6% 97%  
312 0.3% 97%  
313 1.1% 97%  
314 2% 95%  
315 2% 94%  
316 1.5% 92%  
317 3% 90%  
318 3% 87%  
319 3% 84%  
320 2% 81%  
321 4% 79%  
322 5% 75%  
323 3% 70%  
324 4% 67%  
325 5% 63%  
326 5% 57%  
327 3% 52%  
328 6% 49% Median
329 4% 42%  
330 5% 38%  
331 3% 33%  
332 7% 30%  
333 4% 23%  
334 4% 19%  
335 2% 15%  
336 2% 13%  
337 2% 11%  
338 2% 9%  
339 2% 7%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.7% 3%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.7% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.5% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0.2% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.5% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.0%  
305 0.4% 98.9%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.9% 98%  
308 0.6% 97%  
309 1.2% 96%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 2% 94%  
312 2% 92%  
313 3% 90%  
314 4% 87%  
315 2% 84%  
316 6% 82%  
317 2% 76%  
318 3% 74%  
319 8% 71%  
320 2% 63%  
321 6% 60%  
322 4% 55% Median
323 8% 51%  
324 1.4% 43%  
325 6% 42%  
326 5% 35%  
327 3% 31%  
328 3% 27%  
329 6% 24%  
330 2% 18%  
331 4% 16%  
332 2% 12%  
333 2% 11%  
334 2% 8%  
335 2% 7%  
336 0.9% 5%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 1.0% 4%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 1.0% 2%  
341 0.4% 1.4%  
342 0.3% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.2% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.3% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.5% 98.9%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.4% 97%  
298 2% 97%  
299 0.8% 95%  
300 3% 94%  
301 3% 91%  
302 3% 89%  
303 5% 86%  
304 3% 81%  
305 3% 78%  
306 7% 75%  
307 2% 68%  
308 3% 66%  
309 5% 63%  
310 3% 58% Median
311 4% 55%  
312 9% 51%  
313 4% 42%  
314 3% 38%  
315 4% 35%  
316 5% 31%  
317 2% 26%  
318 6% 24%  
319 2% 18%  
320 5% 16%  
321 3% 12%  
322 2% 9%  
323 1.0% 7%  
324 2% 6%  
325 0.5% 4%  
326 1.4% 4%  
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.3%  
331 0.3% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.3% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.3% 98.9%  
262 0.6% 98.6%  
263 0.8% 98%  
264 1.4% 97%  
265 1.2% 96%  
266 1.2% 95%  
267 2% 93%  
268 2% 91%  
269 2% 89%  
270 2% 87%  
271 4% 85%  
272 4% 81%  
273 4% 77%  
274 4% 73%  
275 3% 68%  
276 6% 65%  
277 4% 60%  
278 6% 55% Median
279 5% 49%  
280 5% 44%  
281 4% 39%  
282 8% 35%  
283 3% 27%  
284 2% 24%  
285 4% 21%  
286 1.3% 17%  
287 3% 16%  
288 3% 13%  
289 3% 10%  
290 1.0% 6%  
291 1.4% 5%  
292 0.6% 4%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.4%  
297 0.4% 1.2%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.2% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0.5% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 98.8%  
247 0.3% 98.6%  
248 1.0% 98%  
249 1.2% 97%  
250 1.5% 96%  
251 0.5% 95%  
252 1.2% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 3% 91%  
255 3% 88%  
256 3% 85%  
257 9% 82%  
258 2% 74%  
259 5% 72%  
260 3% 67%  
261 7% 64%  
262 2% 57%  
263 4% 55%  
264 5% 52% Median
265 7% 47%  
266 10% 40%  
267 2% 30%  
268 5% 29%  
269 1.2% 23%  
270 4% 22%  
271 2% 18%  
272 2% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 2% 12%  
275 4% 10%  
276 1.0% 6%  
277 0.8% 5%  
278 1.2% 4%  
279 0.5% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.5% 1.4%  
283 0.4% 0.9%  
284 0.2% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.7%  
161 0.3% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.3%  
163 0.3% 98.9%  
164 0.6% 98.6%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 1.1% 97%  
167 1.3% 96%  
168 2% 95%  
169 2% 93%  
170 6% 92%  
171 2% 85%  
172 3% 83%  
173 5% 80%  
174 5% 75%  
175 4% 70%  
176 5% 66%  
177 4% 62%  
178 6% 57%  
179 5% 51% Median
180 5% 46%  
181 6% 42%  
182 4% 36%  
183 6% 32%  
184 5% 26%  
185 4% 21%  
186 4% 17%  
187 2% 12%  
188 3% 10%  
189 1.3% 7%  
190 1.4% 6%  
191 0.8% 4%  
192 1.0% 4%  
193 0.6% 3%  
194 0.8% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.2%  
196 0.3% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 0.2% 99.2%  
141 0.3% 99.0%  
142 0.2% 98.8%  
143 1.2% 98.6%  
144 3% 97%  
145 3% 95%  
146 1.4% 92%  
147 1.0% 91%  
148 2% 90%  
149 2% 88%  
150 3% 85%  
151 8% 82%  
152 8% 74%  
153 4% 66%  
154 2% 62%  
155 5% 60%  
156 4% 55%  
157 6% 50%  
158 4% 44% Median
159 8% 40%  
160 1.3% 32%  
161 5% 31%  
162 6% 26%  
163 8% 19%  
164 3% 11%  
165 1.1% 8%  
166 0.8% 7%  
167 0.7% 6%  
168 0.6% 6%  
169 1.3% 5%  
170 2% 4%  
171 1.1% 2%  
172 0.1% 0.8%  
173 0.1% 0.6%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations