Opinion Poll by Kantar, 12–18 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.8% 21.5–24.2% 21.1–24.6% 20.8–24.9% 20.2–25.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.4% 19.4–22.8% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.7–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 13.0% 11.9–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 10.9–15.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.4–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 3.9–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 161–182 160–184 157–187 152–194
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 149–169 146–171 143–174 139–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 111–129 110–132 108–134 103–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 97 89–106 88–109 86–110 82–115
Die Linke 69 67 61–75 60–77 58–79 55–82
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 46–60 45–61 44–62 41–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 35–45 33–47 32–48 30–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.5% 99.1%  
155 0.4% 98.6%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 0.9% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 2% 95%  
161 4% 93%  
162 3% 90%  
163 3% 87%  
164 3% 84%  
165 3% 81%  
166 5% 77%  
167 3% 73%  
168 3% 70%  
169 6% 67%  
170 3% 61%  
171 4% 58%  
172 3% 54%  
173 5% 51% Median
174 11% 46%  
175 3% 35%  
176 9% 32%  
177 3% 23%  
178 1.5% 21%  
179 3% 19%  
180 2% 16%  
181 3% 14%  
182 3% 11%  
183 1.5% 8%  
184 2% 6%  
185 1.2% 4%  
186 0.4% 3%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.3% 1.3%  
190 0.1% 1.0%  
191 0.2% 0.9%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.3% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.1% 99.4%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.8% 99.2%  
143 1.1% 98%  
144 0.5% 97%  
145 1.0% 97%  
146 1.3% 96%  
147 2% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 91%  
150 0.8% 89%  
151 4% 88%  
152 12% 85%  
153 4% 73%  
154 1.4% 69%  
155 4% 67%  
156 5% 63%  
157 5% 59%  
158 3% 54%  
159 2% 51% Median
160 8% 49%  
161 9% 41%  
162 8% 32%  
163 2% 24%  
164 2% 22%  
165 4% 20%  
166 1.5% 16%  
167 1.2% 15%  
168 2% 13%  
169 4% 12%  
170 3% 8%  
171 2% 5%  
172 0.3% 3%  
173 0.3% 3%  
174 0.4% 3%  
175 0.6% 2%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.1% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.9%  
179 0.4% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.5%  
105 0.5% 99.0%  
106 0.2% 98.5%  
107 0.5% 98%  
108 2% 98%  
109 0.5% 96%  
110 3% 95%  
111 4% 93%  
112 2% 89%  
113 4% 87%  
114 3% 83%  
115 0.8% 80%  
116 8% 79%  
117 9% 71%  
118 2% 62%  
119 4% 60%  
120 13% 56% Median
121 0.9% 43%  
122 6% 42%  
123 10% 35%  
124 0.8% 25%  
125 4% 24%  
126 5% 20%  
127 0.6% 16%  
128 2% 15%  
129 4% 13%  
130 0.4% 9%  
131 1.0% 9%  
132 4% 8%  
133 0.5% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0% 1.2%  
137 0.2% 1.1%  
138 0.5% 1.0%  
139 0% 0.5%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 0.4% 99.0%  
85 0.5% 98.6%  
86 0.8% 98%  
87 1.4% 97%  
88 3% 96%  
89 3% 93%  
90 3% 89%  
91 3% 86%  
92 2% 84%  
93 3% 81%  
94 4% 78% Last Result
95 3% 74%  
96 7% 71%  
97 14% 64% Median
98 3% 50%  
99 2% 46%  
100 5% 44%  
101 4% 40%  
102 12% 36%  
103 3% 23%  
104 5% 21%  
105 5% 16%  
106 3% 11%  
107 2% 8%  
108 1.2% 6%  
109 1.3% 5%  
110 1.3% 4%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.1%  
114 0.2% 0.8%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 0.7% 98.6%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 4% 92%  
62 8% 88%  
63 3% 80%  
64 6% 77%  
65 4% 71%  
66 12% 67%  
67 6% 55% Median
68 6% 49%  
69 5% 43% Last Result
70 7% 38%  
71 5% 30%  
72 7% 25%  
73 4% 18%  
74 3% 13%  
75 3% 11%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.3% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.5%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 1.1% 98%  
45 5% 96%  
46 5% 92%  
47 4% 87%  
48 3% 83%  
49 6% 81%  
50 4% 75%  
51 3% 71%  
52 19% 67% Median
53 6% 49%  
54 8% 43%  
55 7% 35%  
56 6% 27%  
57 3% 21%  
58 3% 18%  
59 3% 15%  
60 2% 12%  
61 5% 10%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 0.7% 98.8%  
32 2% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 4% 95%  
35 2% 90%  
36 8% 89%  
37 14% 81%  
38 3% 67%  
39 6% 63%  
40 11% 57% Median
41 13% 47%  
42 6% 34%  
43 12% 28%  
44 4% 16%  
45 4% 13%  
46 1.3% 9% Last Result
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.3% 1.4%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 489 100% 480–501 475–503 473–506 468–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 424 100% 411–433 406–436 403–440 399–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 386 99.9% 371–395 369–400 367–403 361–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 94% 358–379 352–384 350–388 346–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 81% 351–374 348–377 344–381 338–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 19% 335–358 332–361 328–365 324–371
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 330 0.8% 320–344 317–347 315–351 309–355
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 334 0.6% 317–341 315–345 315–350 309–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 310 0% 298–321 294–324 292–327 287–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 277 0% 268–292 263–294 262–296 256–302
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 265 0% 254–275 250–279 247–281 241–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 178–198 176–202 173–205 168–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 163–183 160–187 158–189 153–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
461 0% 100%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0% 99.9%  
465 0.2% 99.9%  
466 0% 99.7% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.6%  
468 0.4% 99.6%  
469 0.2% 99.1%  
470 0.1% 99.0%  
471 0.7% 98.8%  
472 0.3% 98%  
473 0.5% 98%  
474 1.0% 97%  
475 2% 96%  
476 1.1% 94%  
477 1.0% 93%  
478 0.7% 92%  
479 1.2% 92%  
480 3% 91%  
481 2% 88%  
482 1.1% 86%  
483 7% 85%  
484 1.3% 78%  
485 4% 76%  
486 6% 72%  
487 2% 67%  
488 5% 65%  
489 12% 60%  
490 1.2% 48%  
491 4% 47%  
492 6% 43% Median
493 2% 37%  
494 3% 35%  
495 4% 32%  
496 1.5% 28%  
497 5% 26%  
498 8% 22%  
499 0.6% 14%  
500 3% 14%  
501 2% 11%  
502 0.9% 9%  
503 4% 8%  
504 0.3% 4%  
505 0.8% 3%  
506 0.4% 3%  
507 0.3% 2%  
508 0.2% 2%  
509 0.8% 2%  
510 0% 0.9%  
511 0.3% 0.8%  
512 0.2% 0.5%  
513 0% 0.3%  
514 0% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.3%  
516 0% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.8%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0.4% 99.7%  
400 0.2% 99.3%  
401 0.2% 99.1%  
402 0.4% 98.9%  
403 1.0% 98.5%  
404 0.1% 97%  
405 0.5% 97%  
406 3% 97%  
407 0.3% 94%  
408 2% 94%  
409 2% 92%  
410 0.5% 91%  
411 2% 90%  
412 2% 88%  
413 0.8% 87%  
414 1.4% 86%  
415 3% 85%  
416 1.1% 81%  
417 5% 80%  
418 2% 75%  
419 1.1% 73%  
420 2% 72%  
421 10% 69%  
422 3% 59%  
423 2% 56%  
424 9% 54% Median
425 4% 45%  
426 3% 41%  
427 13% 39%  
428 5% 26%  
429 0.9% 21%  
430 3% 20%  
431 5% 17%  
432 1.0% 11%  
433 2% 10%  
434 3% 9%  
435 0.5% 6%  
436 1.0% 6%  
437 0.5% 5%  
438 0.4% 4%  
439 0.7% 4%  
440 0.7% 3%  
441 0.1% 2%  
442 0.7% 2%  
443 0.3% 1.5%  
444 0.1% 1.2%  
445 0.5% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0.2% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0.1% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0% 99.6%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.5%  
363 0.1% 99.4%  
364 0.4% 99.3%  
365 0.4% 99.0%  
366 0.6% 98.6%  
367 0.5% 98%  
368 1.3% 97%  
369 2% 96%  
370 1.4% 95%  
371 3% 93%  
372 0.3% 90%  
373 2% 90%  
374 1.1% 87%  
375 1.2% 86%  
376 7% 85%  
377 1.3% 79%  
378 3% 77%  
379 3% 74%  
380 3% 72%  
381 3% 69%  
382 3% 66%  
383 2% 62%  
384 5% 60%  
385 2% 55% Median
386 5% 54%  
387 3% 48%  
388 10% 46%  
389 9% 36%  
390 4% 27%  
391 2% 23%  
392 7% 22%  
393 3% 15%  
394 2% 12%  
395 1.3% 10%  
396 0.9% 9%  
397 2% 8%  
398 0.6% 6%  
399 0.3% 6%  
400 1.4% 6%  
401 1.2% 4%  
402 0.4% 3%  
403 0.6% 3%  
404 0.8% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.2%  
406 0.1% 0.9%  
407 0.2% 0.8%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.2% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.8%  
346 0.2% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.4%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 1.2% 99.1%  
350 1.3% 98%  
351 0.5% 97%  
352 1.3% 96%  
353 0.5% 95%  
354 0.5% 94%  
355 0.7% 94% Majority
356 0.9% 93%  
357 2% 92%  
358 2% 90%  
359 1.0% 88%  
360 2% 87%  
361 2% 85%  
362 1.1% 83%  
363 2% 82%  
364 1.3% 80%  
365 3% 79%  
366 4% 76%  
367 4% 72%  
368 3% 68%  
369 11% 65%  
370 5% 54%  
371 2% 49%  
372 8% 47% Median
373 2% 39%  
374 4% 38%  
375 10% 34%  
376 2% 23%  
377 6% 22%  
378 5% 15%  
379 2% 11%  
380 0.7% 9%  
381 2% 8%  
382 0.3% 6%  
383 0.9% 6%  
384 0.4% 5%  
385 0.9% 5%  
386 0.6% 4%  
387 0.6% 3%  
388 0.2% 3%  
389 1.0% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.4%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.2% 1.0%  
394 0.3% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0.3% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.3%  
340 0.1% 99.2%  
341 0.1% 99.1%  
342 0.6% 98.9%  
343 0.4% 98%  
344 0.7% 98%  
345 0.7% 97%  
346 0.6% 97%  
347 0.7% 96%  
348 0.4% 95%  
349 2% 95%  
350 1.4% 93%  
351 2% 92%  
352 4% 89%  
353 2% 86%  
354 3% 84%  
355 0.9% 81% Majority
356 4% 80%  
357 2% 76%  
358 5% 74%  
359 4% 69%  
360 4% 65%  
361 3% 61%  
362 8% 58% Median
363 3% 50%  
364 3% 47%  
365 5% 44%  
366 4% 39%  
367 4% 34%  
368 3% 31%  
369 1.4% 27%  
370 2% 26%  
371 9% 24%  
372 0.7% 15%  
373 1.1% 14%  
374 5% 13%  
375 1.0% 9%  
376 1.3% 8%  
377 2% 6%  
378 0.1% 5%  
379 1.4% 4%  
380 0.6% 3%  
381 0.7% 3%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.7% 2%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.3% 0.7%  
386 0% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.6%  
324 0.3% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.3%  
326 0.7% 99.2%  
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.7% 98%  
329 0.6% 97%  
330 1.4% 97%  
331 0.1% 96%  
332 2% 95%  
333 1.3% 94%  
334 1.0% 92%  
335 5% 91%  
336 1.1% 87%  
337 0.7% 86%  
338 9% 85%  
339 2% 76%  
340 1.4% 74%  
341 3% 73%  
342 4% 69%  
343 4% 66%  
344 5% 61%  
345 3% 56%  
346 3% 53% Median
347 8% 50%  
348 3% 42%  
349 4% 39%  
350 4% 35%  
351 5% 31%  
352 2% 26%  
353 4% 24%  
354 0.9% 20%  
355 3% 19% Majority
356 2% 16%  
357 4% 14%  
358 2% 11%  
359 1.4% 8%  
360 2% 7%  
361 0.4% 5%  
362 0.7% 5%  
363 0.6% 4%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 0.7% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.1% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 0.9%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.3% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.1% 99.1%  
312 0.6% 99.0%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 2% 98%  
316 0.6% 96%  
317 3% 95%  
318 0.7% 92%  
319 1.3% 92%  
320 2% 90%  
321 2% 88%  
322 2% 86%  
323 2% 84%  
324 9% 82%  
325 3% 74%  
326 7% 71%  
327 2% 64%  
328 5% 61%  
329 2% 56%  
330 5% 54%  
331 3% 50% Median
332 0.8% 47%  
333 3% 46%  
334 2% 43%  
335 2% 40%  
336 3% 38%  
337 12% 36%  
338 1.2% 24%  
339 6% 23%  
340 2% 17%  
341 1.4% 14%  
342 1.3% 13%  
343 0.5% 12%  
344 2% 11%  
345 0.4% 10%  
346 3% 9%  
347 2% 6%  
348 0.6% 4%  
349 1.0% 4%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 1.1% 3%  
352 0.2% 1.5%  
353 0.3% 1.3%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.3% 0.8% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.1% 99.4%  
311 0% 99.3%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.6% 98.9%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 3% 98%  
316 0.3% 94%  
317 5% 94%  
318 0.4% 90%  
319 0.2% 89%  
320 1.1% 89%  
321 1.2% 88%  
322 3% 87%  
323 7% 84%  
324 0.7% 77%  
325 3% 76%  
326 0.4% 74%  
327 1.4% 73%  
328 4% 72%  
329 2% 68%  
330 3% 66%  
331 7% 63%  
332 2% 56%  
333 3% 54% Median
334 4% 51%  
335 1.3% 47%  
336 13% 46%  
337 12% 33%  
338 3% 20%  
339 5% 17%  
340 1.2% 12%  
341 0.8% 11%  
342 2% 10%  
343 0.6% 8%  
344 1.1% 8%  
345 2% 7%  
346 0.2% 5%  
347 0.1% 5%  
348 0.1% 5%  
349 0.3% 4%  
350 2% 4%  
351 0.6% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.6% 1.4%  
354 0.2% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.6% Majority
356 0% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.2% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.3% 99.6%  
288 0.3% 99.3%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.5% 98.8%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.8% 98%  
293 2% 97%  
294 0.9% 95%  
295 2% 95%  
296 2% 93%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 3% 91%  
299 2% 88%  
300 0.8% 85%  
301 3% 85%  
302 2% 82%  
303 5% 79%  
304 5% 74%  
305 4% 70%  
306 2% 66%  
307 1.4% 63%  
308 2% 62%  
309 3% 60%  
310 9% 57% Median
311 3% 49%  
312 3% 46%  
313 7% 42%  
314 4% 35%  
315 2% 32%  
316 3% 30%  
317 2% 27%  
318 3% 24%  
319 8% 21%  
320 2% 13%  
321 3% 11%  
322 2% 8%  
323 0.8% 7%  
324 0.9% 6%  
325 1.0% 5%  
326 0.6% 4%  
327 1.2% 3%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.7% 1.4%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.2% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.1%  
260 0.4% 99.0%  
261 0.6% 98.6%  
262 1.2% 98%  
263 2% 97%  
264 1.1% 95%  
265 0.8% 93%  
266 2% 93%  
267 0.5% 91%  
268 2% 90%  
269 2% 89%  
270 5% 87%  
271 2% 82%  
272 10% 80%  
273 3% 69%  
274 2% 67%  
275 5% 64%  
276 4% 59%  
277 5% 55%  
278 2% 50%  
279 4% 47% Median
280 2% 43%  
281 4% 42%  
282 1.3% 37%  
283 3% 36%  
284 2% 33%  
285 13% 31%  
286 0.8% 18%  
287 2% 17%  
288 0.6% 15%  
289 2% 14%  
290 0.6% 12%  
291 1.0% 11%  
292 2% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 3% 6%  
295 0.1% 3%  
296 0.3% 3%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.2% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 1.5%  
301 0.3% 1.1%  
302 0.4% 0.8%  
303 0.2% 0.4%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.3% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.2%  
244 0% 99.0%  
245 0.1% 99.0%  
246 0.7% 98.9%  
247 1.2% 98%  
248 0.2% 97%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 2% 96%  
251 1.3% 94%  
252 0.7% 93%  
253 2% 92%  
254 2% 91%  
255 5% 89%  
256 6% 84%  
257 0.8% 77%  
258 0.7% 77%  
259 2% 76%  
260 6% 74%  
261 5% 68%  
262 2% 63%  
263 1.4% 61%  
264 6% 60%  
265 10% 54% Median
266 1.4% 44%  
267 1.5% 43%  
268 4% 41%  
269 11% 37%  
270 6% 27%  
271 3% 21%  
272 1.3% 18%  
273 2% 17%  
274 3% 15%  
275 2% 11%  
276 0.5% 9%  
277 1.0% 9%  
278 2% 8%  
279 3% 6%  
280 0.8% 3%  
281 0.2% 3%  
282 0.8% 2%  
283 0.2% 2%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.1% 0.9%  
286 0.1% 0.8%  
287 0.3% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.4%  
170 0.5% 99.3%  
171 0.6% 98.8%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 0.6% 97%  
175 1.0% 96%  
176 1.4% 95%  
177 3% 94%  
178 2% 91%  
179 2% 88%  
180 3% 87%  
181 4% 84%  
182 2% 80%  
183 3% 78%  
184 5% 75%  
185 8% 70%  
186 11% 62%  
187 3% 51% Median
188 4% 48%  
189 6% 44%  
190 6% 38%  
191 3% 31%  
192 2% 28%  
193 5% 26%  
194 3% 21%  
195 2% 18%  
196 2% 15%  
197 2% 13%  
198 3% 12%  
199 0.6% 9%  
200 1.4% 8%  
201 2% 7%  
202 1.1% 6%  
203 1.4% 4%  
204 0.3% 3%  
205 0.3% 3%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.9% 2%  
208 0.2% 1.0%  
209 0.1% 0.8%  
210 0.2% 0.7%  
211 0.3% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.1% 99.5%  
155 0.6% 99.4%  
156 0.6% 98.8%  
157 0.4% 98%  
158 0.8% 98%  
159 0.3% 97%  
160 2% 97%  
161 1.0% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 4% 92%  
164 0.9% 88%  
165 7% 87%  
166 2% 80%  
167 3% 78%  
168 2% 75%  
169 3% 73%  
170 8% 70%  
171 3% 62%  
172 10% 60% Median
173 4% 49%  
174 3% 46%  
175 9% 42%  
176 2% 33%  
177 4% 31%  
178 4% 27%  
179 2% 23%  
180 3% 21%  
181 4% 18%  
182 2% 14%  
183 3% 12%  
184 1.2% 10%  
185 2% 9%  
186 0.5% 7%  
187 3% 7%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.7% 3%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.2% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.4%  
193 0.4% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations