Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–20 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 199 192–211 187–214 185–215 181–219
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 155 146–161 143–164 141–168 136–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 109–124 105–125 104–129 100–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–75 61–78 60–80 57–83
Die Linke 69 69 63–76 61–78 60–80 57–83
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 55 49–60 47–61 46–62 44–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 41–52 40–53 39–55 36–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.3% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0.3% 99.4%  
183 1.2% 99.1%  
184 0.3% 98%  
185 0.6% 98%  
186 1.3% 97%  
187 1.3% 96%  
188 0.4% 94%  
189 1.4% 94%  
190 1.0% 93%  
191 1.0% 92%  
192 2% 91%  
193 2% 88%  
194 3% 87%  
195 3% 84%  
196 9% 81%  
197 3% 71%  
198 9% 69%  
199 10% 59% Median
200 9% 49% Last Result
201 4% 41%  
202 8% 36%  
203 4% 29%  
204 2% 25%  
205 3% 22%  
206 2% 20%  
207 0.9% 17%  
208 2% 17%  
209 1.1% 14%  
210 0.5% 13%  
211 3% 13%  
212 2% 9%  
213 0.7% 7%  
214 3% 7%  
215 1.3% 4%  
216 0.8% 2%  
217 0.4% 2%  
218 0.6% 1.3%  
219 0.2% 0.7%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.2% 0.3%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.5% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 98.9%  
139 0.6% 98.7%  
140 0.3% 98%  
141 1.0% 98%  
142 1.1% 97%  
143 2% 96%  
144 0.8% 94%  
145 1.3% 93%  
146 3% 92%  
147 2% 89%  
148 2% 87%  
149 3% 85%  
150 6% 83%  
151 6% 77%  
152 8% 71%  
153 4% 63%  
154 9% 60%  
155 5% 51% Median
156 9% 45%  
157 7% 37%  
158 9% 30%  
159 5% 21%  
160 5% 16%  
161 1.3% 11%  
162 3% 10%  
163 1.0% 7%  
164 1.2% 6%  
165 0.6% 5%  
166 0.7% 4%  
167 0.6% 3%  
168 0.6% 3%  
169 0.5% 2%  
170 0.4% 2%  
171 0.2% 1.2%  
172 0.3% 1.0%  
173 0.3% 0.7%  
174 0.2% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.2%  
102 0% 99.0%  
103 0.7% 99.0%  
104 3% 98%  
105 2% 95%  
106 0.4% 94%  
107 0.3% 93%  
108 3% 93%  
109 13% 91%  
110 6% 78%  
111 2% 72%  
112 0.1% 71%  
113 5% 71%  
114 10% 66%  
115 16% 56% Median
116 2% 41%  
117 0.1% 38%  
118 2% 38%  
119 15% 36%  
120 9% 21%  
121 0.5% 12%  
122 0.1% 12%  
123 1.4% 12%  
124 2% 10%  
125 4% 8%  
126 0.6% 4%  
127 0% 3%  
128 0.3% 3%  
129 1.4% 3%  
130 0.7% 1.3%  
131 0.1% 0.6%  
132 0% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.5%  
134 0.3% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.4%  
59 0.6% 98.7%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 5% 91%  
64 2% 86%  
65 8% 84%  
66 5% 76%  
67 6% 71%  
68 11% 65%  
69 4% 54% Median
70 7% 50%  
71 9% 43%  
72 11% 35%  
73 6% 24%  
74 5% 18%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.0% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.5% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.1%  
59 0.5% 98.6%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 1.5% 94%  
63 5% 93%  
64 6% 88%  
65 6% 83%  
66 3% 77%  
67 6% 74%  
68 13% 68%  
69 7% 55% Last Result, Median
70 8% 48%  
71 6% 40%  
72 9% 34%  
73 3% 25%  
74 6% 22%  
75 4% 16%  
76 3% 12%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.2%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 0.9% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 4% 95%  
49 3% 90%  
50 11% 88%  
51 6% 77%  
52 8% 71%  
53 4% 63%  
54 7% 58%  
55 13% 51% Median
56 12% 38%  
57 6% 26%  
58 4% 20%  
59 4% 15%  
60 5% 12%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.4% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.3% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 0.8% 98.9%  
39 0.9% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 95%  
42 9% 87%  
43 6% 78%  
44 7% 72%  
45 7% 64%  
46 10% 58% Last Result, Median
47 10% 48%  
48 4% 37%  
49 6% 33%  
50 10% 27%  
51 4% 17%  
52 7% 13%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.8% 4%  
55 1.3% 3%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.9%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 517 100% 507–525 505–530 501–531 497–535
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 455 100% 446–464 442–467 439–470 432–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 415 100% 405–426 403–429 401–432 395–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 401 100% 391–411 388–413 383–416 379–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 97% 360–380 356–384 354–387 349–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 361 86% 352–373 348–376 346–378 340–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 3% 329–349 325–353 322–355 318–360
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 325 0% 312–333 308–338 307–339 303–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 319 0% 307–325 304–331 299–333 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 300 0% 290–312 288–314 283–318 280–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 260–279 256–284 253–287 249–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 184 0% 176–194 173–196 171–199 166–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 170 0% 162–177 159–181 157–184 150–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.2% 99.8%  
496 0% 99.6%  
497 0.4% 99.6%  
498 0.2% 99.2%  
499 0.6% 99.0%  
500 0.3% 98%  
501 0.9% 98%  
502 0.7% 97%  
503 0.7% 97%  
504 0.7% 96%  
505 3% 95%  
506 1.2% 92%  
507 4% 91%  
508 2% 87%  
509 1.4% 85%  
510 3% 84%  
511 10% 81%  
512 7% 71%  
513 3% 64%  
514 4% 61%  
515 1.1% 57% Median
516 4% 56%  
517 8% 52%  
518 5% 44%  
519 9% 39%  
520 5% 30%  
521 4% 26%  
522 2% 22%  
523 2% 19%  
524 5% 17%  
525 2% 12%  
526 2% 9%  
527 0.5% 7%  
528 1.3% 7%  
529 0.5% 6%  
530 1.0% 5%  
531 3% 4%  
532 0.4% 1.4%  
533 0.2% 1.0%  
534 0.1% 0.9%  
535 0.3% 0.8%  
536 0.3% 0.5%  
537 0.1% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0.1% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.8%  
432 0.3% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.5%  
434 0.2% 99.4%  
435 0.2% 99.2%  
436 0.5% 99.1%  
437 0.2% 98.6%  
438 0.6% 98%  
439 0.8% 98%  
440 0.2% 97%  
441 0.7% 97%  
442 2% 96%  
443 0.8% 95%  
444 2% 94%  
445 2% 92%  
446 2% 90%  
447 2% 88%  
448 3% 86%  
449 5% 84%  
450 4% 79%  
451 1.1% 75%  
452 8% 74%  
453 2% 66%  
454 13% 64%  
455 5% 51% Median
456 0.6% 45%  
457 12% 45%  
458 4% 33%  
459 4% 29%  
460 3% 25%  
461 4% 22%  
462 3% 18%  
463 2% 15%  
464 4% 12%  
465 0.7% 9%  
466 2% 8%  
467 2% 6%  
468 0.9% 4%  
469 0.6% 3%  
470 1.0% 3%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.4% 2%  
473 0.3% 1.2%  
474 0.2% 0.9%  
475 0.1% 0.7%  
476 0.3% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.2% 99.7%  
395 0.3% 99.5%  
396 0.3% 99.2%  
397 0.3% 98.9%  
398 0.2% 98.6%  
399 0.4% 98%  
400 0.2% 98%  
401 0.4% 98%  
402 2% 97%  
403 2% 96%  
404 2% 94%  
405 3% 92%  
406 2% 89%  
407 3% 87%  
408 0.9% 84%  
409 2% 83%  
410 0.9% 82%  
411 1.2% 81%  
412 6% 80%  
413 9% 73%  
414 9% 64%  
415 9% 55% Median
416 4% 46%  
417 7% 42%  
418 7% 36%  
419 1.2% 29%  
420 2% 28%  
421 2% 26%  
422 3% 24%  
423 2% 21%  
424 2% 19%  
425 3% 17%  
426 4% 13%  
427 2% 10%  
428 3% 8%  
429 0.9% 5%  
430 1.0% 4%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.9% 3%  
433 0.5% 2%  
434 0.3% 2%  
435 0.4% 1.3%  
436 0.4% 0.8%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0.2% 0.4%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.2% 99.8%  
379 0.6% 99.6%  
380 0.8% 99.1%  
381 0.2% 98%  
382 0.3% 98%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.3% 97%  
385 0.4% 97%  
386 0.5% 97%  
387 1.1% 96%  
388 0.9% 95%  
389 0.8% 94%  
390 2% 93%  
391 2% 91%  
392 2% 90%  
393 0.8% 87%  
394 0.8% 86%  
395 1.0% 86%  
396 0.6% 85%  
397 3% 84%  
398 17% 81%  
399 6% 65%  
400 7% 58% Median
401 3% 51%  
402 13% 48%  
403 7% 35%  
404 7% 28%  
405 2% 22%  
406 1.1% 20%  
407 0.9% 19%  
408 2% 18%  
409 4% 16%  
410 1.3% 12%  
411 3% 11%  
412 1.2% 8%  
413 2% 6%  
414 1.3% 5%  
415 0.9% 4%  
416 0.5% 3%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.1% 1.4%  
421 0.4% 1.3%  
422 0.4% 0.9%  
423 0.3% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.7% 99.6%  
350 0.2% 98.9%  
351 0.3% 98.7%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.3% 98%  
354 1.0% 98%  
355 0.5% 97% Majority
356 1.4% 96%  
357 0.4% 95%  
358 3% 94%  
359 1.2% 92%  
360 3% 90%  
361 3% 87%  
362 0.5% 84%  
363 2% 83%  
364 11% 82%  
365 4% 70%  
366 2% 67%  
367 0.7% 64%  
368 6% 63%  
369 4% 58% Median
370 6% 54%  
371 6% 47%  
372 4% 41%  
373 2% 37%  
374 2% 35%  
375 4% 33%  
376 10% 30%  
377 4% 19%  
378 2% 15%  
379 1.3% 13%  
380 2% 12%  
381 1.1% 10%  
382 1.2% 9%  
383 1.4% 8%  
384 1.1% 6%  
385 1.1% 5%  
386 0.5% 4%  
387 1.1% 3%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.7% 2%  
390 0.1% 1.2%  
391 0.6% 1.0%  
392 0.2% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.5%  
342 0.1% 99.3%  
343 0.9% 99.2%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 1.0% 98%  
347 0.5% 97%  
348 1.3% 96%  
349 2% 95%  
350 1.1% 93%  
351 0.5% 92%  
352 2% 91%  
353 3% 89%  
354 0.6% 86%  
355 5% 86% Majority
356 3% 81%  
357 4% 78%  
358 5% 73%  
359 14% 69%  
360 2% 55% Median
361 4% 53%  
362 4% 48%  
363 6% 44%  
364 2% 38%  
365 6% 36%  
366 5% 30%  
367 2% 24%  
368 2% 22%  
369 3% 20%  
370 2% 17%  
371 2% 15%  
372 2% 13%  
373 3% 11%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.1% 7%  
376 3% 6%  
377 0.3% 3%  
378 1.0% 3%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.4%  
381 0.5% 1.2%  
382 0.1% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.8%  
318 0.6% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 99.0%  
320 0.7% 98.8%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 1.1% 98%  
323 0.5% 97%  
324 1.1% 96%  
325 1.1% 95%  
326 1.4% 94%  
327 1.2% 92%  
328 1.1% 91%  
329 2% 90%  
330 1.3% 88%  
331 2% 87%  
332 4% 85%  
333 10% 81%  
334 4% 70%  
335 2% 67%  
336 2% 65%  
337 4% 63%  
338 6% 59%  
339 6% 53% Median
340 4% 46%  
341 6% 42%  
342 0.7% 37%  
343 2% 36%  
344 4% 33%  
345 11% 30%  
346 2% 18%  
347 0.5% 17%  
348 3% 16%  
349 3% 13%  
350 1.2% 10%  
351 3% 8%  
352 0.4% 6%  
353 1.4% 5%  
354 0.5% 4%  
355 1.0% 3% Majority
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.3%  
360 0.7% 1.1%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0.1% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0.4% 99.7%  
304 0.8% 99.3%  
305 0.3% 98.5%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.9% 98%  
308 3% 97%  
309 0.2% 95%  
310 0.5% 94%  
311 3% 94%  
312 3% 91%  
313 1.4% 88%  
314 0.3% 87%  
315 0.7% 87%  
316 9% 86%  
317 3% 77%  
318 0.7% 74%  
319 2% 73%  
320 4% 71%  
321 10% 67%  
322 2% 56%  
323 0.7% 55%  
324 4% 54%  
325 10% 50% Median
326 5% 40%  
327 0.5% 35%  
328 1.2% 34%  
329 10% 33%  
330 3% 23%  
331 1.2% 20%  
332 0.7% 19%  
333 9% 18%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 1.2% 9%  
336 0.5% 8%  
337 0.6% 7%  
338 4% 7%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.7% 1.5%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.7%  
346 0.2% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.4% 99.3%  
297 0.6% 98.9%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.6% 98%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 1.0% 96%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.5% 95%  
306 1.1% 94%  
307 4% 93%  
308 10% 89%  
309 8% 79%  
310 8% 70%  
311 2% 62%  
312 1.1% 60%  
313 0.8% 59%  
314 2% 58% Median
315 0.9% 56%  
316 2% 55%  
317 1.0% 53%  
318 2% 52%  
319 8% 51%  
320 11% 43%  
321 14% 32%  
322 3% 17%  
323 2% 14%  
324 2% 12%  
325 2% 11%  
326 0.6% 9%  
327 0.7% 8%  
328 0.7% 7%  
329 0.3% 7%  
330 0.6% 6%  
331 0.9% 6%  
332 2% 5%  
333 1.1% 3%  
334 0.7% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.5%  
336 0.4% 1.1%  
337 0.4% 0.7%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0.1% 100%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.8% 99.4%  
282 0.8% 98.6%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0.5% 97%  
288 4% 96%  
289 2% 92%  
290 3% 90%  
291 2% 87%  
292 0.9% 86%  
293 0.7% 85%  
294 2% 84%  
295 0.8% 82%  
296 9% 81%  
297 7% 72%  
298 13% 65%  
299 1.2% 52%  
300 3% 51% Median
301 1.0% 48%  
302 1.4% 47%  
303 8% 45%  
304 1.0% 38%  
305 14% 37%  
306 4% 22%  
307 2% 18%  
308 0.7% 17%  
309 1.1% 16%  
310 0.7% 15%  
311 2% 14%  
312 3% 12%  
313 4% 9%  
314 2% 6%  
315 0.5% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.6% 3%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 1.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.4% 0.8%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0.1% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.2% 99.8%  
249 0.4% 99.7%  
250 0.4% 99.2%  
251 0.3% 98.8%  
252 0.8% 98.6%  
253 1.4% 98%  
254 0.7% 96%  
255 0.6% 96%  
256 0.6% 95%  
257 1.0% 94%  
258 1.2% 94%  
259 0.9% 92%  
260 4% 91%  
261 8% 87%  
262 2% 79%  
263 6% 78%  
264 3% 72%  
265 4% 69%  
266 4% 65%  
267 3% 61%  
268 2% 58%  
269 4% 56%  
270 2% 52% Median
271 6% 51%  
272 2% 45%  
273 6% 42%  
274 8% 37%  
275 7% 29%  
276 2% 23%  
277 8% 21%  
278 2% 13%  
279 1.2% 11%  
280 0.4% 9%  
281 1.1% 9%  
282 2% 8%  
283 0.6% 6%  
284 1.2% 6%  
285 0.6% 4%  
286 0.2% 4%  
287 2% 3%  
288 0.3% 1.1%  
289 0.1% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.2% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.7%  
166 0.2% 99.6%  
167 0.1% 99.5%  
168 0.7% 99.3%  
169 0.4% 98.6%  
170 0.2% 98%  
171 2% 98%  
172 0.5% 96%  
173 2% 96%  
174 2% 94%  
175 2% 92%  
176 1.3% 91%  
177 3% 89%  
178 4% 87%  
179 3% 83%  
180 3% 80%  
181 7% 77%  
182 8% 70%  
183 7% 62%  
184 7% 55% Median
185 8% 48%  
186 3% 41%  
187 9% 38%  
188 2% 29%  
189 3% 27%  
190 6% 24%  
191 2% 18%  
192 2% 16%  
193 2% 14%  
194 3% 11%  
195 1.1% 8%  
196 2% 7%  
197 0.6% 5%  
198 2% 4%  
199 0.7% 3%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.2% 2%  
202 0.4% 1.4%  
203 0.1% 1.0%  
204 0.4% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0% 0.3%  
207 0% 0.2%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.3% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.4%  
152 0.2% 99.4%  
153 0.7% 99.2%  
154 0.2% 98%  
155 0.3% 98%  
156 0.3% 98%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 3% 95%  
161 2% 92%  
162 3% 90%  
163 5% 88%  
164 10% 83%  
165 8% 73%  
166 2% 64%  
167 2% 63%  
168 4% 61%  
169 6% 57%  
170 10% 50% Median
171 5% 41%  
172 4% 36%  
173 2% 31%  
174 5% 30%  
175 9% 25%  
176 5% 16%  
177 2% 10%  
178 0.8% 8%  
179 2% 8%  
180 0.8% 6%  
181 1.0% 5%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 0.5% 3%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.7% 1.4%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations