Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.5% 25.3–27.8% 25.0–28.2% 24.7–28.5% 24.1–29.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–13.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 199 190–208 187–210 185–213 181–218
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 142–158 139–161 137–163 133–167
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 105–120 103–123 101–124 98–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 83–97 81–99 80–101 77–104
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 56 50–61 49–63 48–64 46–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 44–55 43–56 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.2% 99.7%  
181 0.3% 99.5%  
182 0.3% 99.3%  
183 0.7% 98.9%  
184 0.6% 98%  
185 0.9% 98%  
186 1.3% 97%  
187 1.1% 96%  
188 2% 94%  
189 2% 92%  
190 3% 91%  
191 3% 88%  
192 4% 84%  
193 5% 81%  
194 3% 76%  
195 6% 72%  
196 4% 67%  
197 5% 62%  
198 5% 57%  
199 4% 52% Median
200 7% 48% Last Result
201 5% 41%  
202 5% 37%  
203 6% 32%  
204 3% 26%  
205 5% 23%  
206 3% 18%  
207 4% 15%  
208 3% 11%  
209 2% 8%  
210 2% 7%  
211 0.8% 4%  
212 1.0% 4%  
213 0.6% 3%  
214 0.6% 2%  
215 0.4% 2%  
216 0.2% 1.1%  
217 0.3% 0.9%  
218 0.1% 0.5%  
219 0.2% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.2%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.2% 99.4%  
135 0.3% 99.2%  
136 0.8% 98.9%  
137 0.7% 98%  
138 1.3% 97%  
139 2% 96%  
140 2% 94%  
141 2% 92%  
142 4% 90%  
143 3% 86%  
144 3% 83%  
145 7% 80%  
146 4% 74%  
147 5% 69%  
148 6% 64%  
149 5% 58%  
150 5% 52% Median
151 9% 48%  
152 7% 39%  
153 3% 32%  
154 6% 29%  
155 4% 23%  
156 3% 19%  
157 4% 17%  
158 3% 13%  
159 1.4% 10%  
160 2% 8%  
161 2% 6%  
162 1.0% 4%  
163 1.2% 3%  
164 0.6% 2%  
165 0.2% 1.3%  
166 0.4% 1.1%  
167 0.3% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.6% 99.0%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 1.4% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 4% 93%  
106 4% 89%  
107 5% 85%  
108 4% 81%  
109 6% 76%  
110 7% 70%  
111 7% 63%  
112 6% 56%  
113 8% 50% Median
114 6% 42%  
115 6% 36%  
116 4% 30%  
117 5% 26%  
118 5% 20%  
119 3% 16%  
120 4% 13%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.4% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.3%  
128 0.4% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.3%  
79 1.0% 98.7%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 3% 95%  
83 3% 92%  
84 5% 89%  
85 5% 85%  
86 6% 80%  
87 7% 74%  
88 6% 67%  
89 8% 61%  
90 7% 53% Median
91 8% 46%  
92 6% 37%  
93 6% 31%  
94 6% 25% Last Result
95 4% 20%  
96 5% 15%  
97 3% 11%  
98 2% 8%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.3% 4%  
101 0.8% 3%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.1%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 98.9%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 5% 90%  
49 6% 85%  
50 8% 78%  
51 8% 71%  
52 10% 62%  
53 9% 53% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 8% 33%  
56 7% 25%  
57 5% 18%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.4% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
47 1.2% 99.1%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 93%  
51 5% 90%  
52 8% 85%  
53 7% 77%  
54 7% 70%  
55 10% 63%  
56 11% 53% Median
57 9% 42%  
58 7% 33%  
59 7% 26%  
60 6% 19%  
61 5% 13%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.4%  
41 1.3% 98.7%  
42 2% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 4% 91%  
45 7% 87%  
46 7% 80%  
47 9% 73%  
48 10% 64%  
49 9% 55% Median
50 9% 45%  
51 7% 36%  
52 7% 29%  
53 7% 21%  
54 5% 15%  
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 517 100% 508–527 505–529 503–531 498–536
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 453 100% 444–463 441–466 439–469 433–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 418 100% 406–426 404–429 402–432 395–437
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 404 100% 394–415 392–418 389–420 384–425
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 394 100% 383–404 380–407 378–409 372–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 368 95% 357–377 354–380 352–383 347–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 345 11% 334–355 332–358 329–360 324–365
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 315 0% 305–326 302–329 300–331 295–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 311 0% 302–322 299–325 297–328 291–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 304 0% 294–314 291–316 288–319 283–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 253–273 250–276 248–278 243–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 165 0% 157–174 154–177 152–179 148–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 153–171 151–173 149–175 144–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.8%  
498 0.2% 99.7%  
499 0.2% 99.5%  
500 0.3% 99.3%  
501 0.5% 99.0%  
502 0.7% 98%  
503 0.9% 98%  
504 0.8% 97%  
505 1.2% 96%  
506 2% 95%  
507 2% 93%  
508 2% 90%  
509 3% 88%  
510 3% 86%  
511 4% 82%  
512 4% 78%  
513 5% 74%  
514 5% 69%  
515 4% 64%  
516 7% 60%  
517 6% 53%  
518 5% 47% Median
519 6% 43%  
520 4% 37%  
521 5% 33%  
522 4% 28%  
523 4% 23%  
524 3% 19%  
525 3% 16%  
526 3% 13%  
527 3% 10%  
528 2% 8%  
529 1.3% 5%  
530 1.1% 4%  
531 0.9% 3%  
532 0.6% 2%  
533 0.5% 2%  
534 0.3% 1.0%  
535 0.2% 0.8%  
536 0.2% 0.5%  
537 0.1% 0.3%  
538 0.1% 0.3%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.7%  
433 0.1% 99.6%  
434 0.2% 99.5%  
435 0.2% 99.2%  
436 0.4% 99.0%  
437 0.5% 98.6%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 1.1% 98%  
440 1.1% 96%  
441 1.3% 95%  
442 2% 94%  
443 2% 92%  
444 1.5% 90%  
445 3% 89%  
446 3% 86%  
447 3% 82%  
448 5% 80%  
449 4% 75%  
450 6% 71%  
451 5% 65%  
452 6% 60%  
453 6% 55%  
454 5% 49% Median
455 5% 44%  
456 3% 39%  
457 4% 36%  
458 4% 32%  
459 4% 28%  
460 4% 24%  
461 3% 19%  
462 5% 16%  
463 3% 12%  
464 2% 9%  
465 1.4% 7%  
466 0.9% 6%  
467 1.0% 5%  
468 0.8% 4%  
469 1.1% 3%  
470 0.6% 2%  
471 0.5% 1.5%  
472 0.4% 1.0%  
473 0.2% 0.5%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.6%  
396 0.1% 99.5%  
397 0.2% 99.3%  
398 0.2% 99.2%  
399 0.2% 99.0%  
400 0.4% 98.8%  
401 0.4% 98%  
402 0.9% 98%  
403 1.4% 97%  
404 2% 96%  
405 2% 94%  
406 4% 91%  
407 3% 87%  
408 3% 84%  
409 4% 81%  
410 3% 76%  
411 4% 73%  
412 2% 69%  
413 3% 67%  
414 2% 64%  
415 4% 62%  
416 3% 58%  
417 4% 55% Median
418 6% 51%  
419 5% 45%  
420 7% 40%  
421 7% 33%  
422 6% 26%  
423 3% 20%  
424 5% 17%  
425 2% 12%  
426 3% 10%  
427 1.4% 7%  
428 0.9% 6%  
429 0.7% 5%  
430 0.7% 4%  
431 0.6% 4%  
432 0.6% 3%  
433 0.6% 2%  
434 0.3% 2%  
435 0.5% 1.5%  
436 0.5% 1.0%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0.1% 0.4%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.2% 99.7%  
384 0.2% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.4% 99.2%  
387 0.5% 98.8%  
388 0.4% 98%  
389 1.2% 98%  
390 0.8% 97%  
391 0.7% 96%  
392 2% 95%  
393 2% 93%  
394 2% 91%  
395 3% 89%  
396 2% 86%  
397 3% 84%  
398 5% 81%  
399 3% 76%  
400 5% 73%  
401 6% 68%  
402 2% 63%  
403 5% 60%  
404 7% 55%  
405 3% 49% Median
406 5% 46%  
407 5% 41%  
408 3% 35%  
409 5% 33%  
410 5% 28%  
411 2% 23%  
412 3% 21%  
413 4% 17%  
414 1.2% 13%  
415 4% 12%  
416 2% 9%  
417 1.0% 7%  
418 1.5% 6%  
419 1.0% 4%  
420 0.6% 3%  
421 0.8% 2%  
422 0.5% 2%  
423 0.3% 1.2%  
424 0.3% 0.9%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.2% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.3%  
375 0.3% 99.1%  
376 0.3% 98.8%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.8% 97%  
380 2% 96%  
381 1.0% 95%  
382 1.1% 94%  
383 3% 93%  
384 2% 90%  
385 3% 88%  
386 3% 85%  
387 3% 82%  
388 4% 79%  
389 4% 74%  
390 4% 70%  
391 7% 67%  
392 3% 60%  
393 6% 57%  
394 5% 51% Median
395 4% 45%  
396 5% 42%  
397 5% 37%  
398 3% 32%  
399 6% 28%  
400 3% 23%  
401 3% 19%  
402 3% 17%  
403 2% 13%  
404 2% 11%  
405 3% 10%  
406 1.1% 7%  
407 2% 5%  
408 0.9% 4%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.8% 2%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.1%  
413 0.3% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.6%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.2% 99.1%  
350 0.5% 99.0%  
351 0.8% 98.5%  
352 1.0% 98%  
353 1.3% 97%  
354 0.6% 95%  
355 0.9% 95% Majority
356 4% 94%  
357 3% 90%  
358 2% 87%  
359 2% 85%  
360 2% 83%  
361 6% 80%  
362 3% 74%  
363 4% 71%  
364 4% 67%  
365 3% 64%  
366 5% 61%  
367 6% 56%  
368 4% 50% Median
369 5% 46%  
370 4% 41%  
371 4% 37%  
372 8% 33%  
373 4% 25%  
374 3% 21%  
375 2% 18%  
376 3% 16%  
377 4% 13%  
378 2% 8%  
379 1.2% 7%  
380 1.0% 6%  
381 1.1% 5%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.9% 3%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.3%  
387 0.2% 1.0%  
388 0.3% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.5%  
325 0.2% 99.4%  
326 0.3% 99.1%  
327 0.6% 98.8%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.6% 98%  
330 0.9% 97%  
331 1.0% 96%  
332 2% 95%  
333 2% 93%  
334 2% 92%  
335 3% 90%  
336 2% 86%  
337 3% 84%  
338 3% 81%  
339 4% 78%  
340 4% 74% Last Result
341 4% 70%  
342 5% 65%  
343 5% 61%  
344 6% 56%  
345 4% 50% Median
346 5% 46%  
347 5% 41%  
348 5% 36%  
349 5% 31%  
350 3% 27%  
351 3% 23%  
352 4% 20%  
353 2% 16%  
354 3% 14%  
355 2% 11% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 2% 7%  
358 1.5% 5%  
359 0.9% 4%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.7% 2%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.3%  
364 0.3% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.3% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.4% 98.9%  
299 0.8% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.9% 97%  
302 2% 96%  
303 1.1% 95%  
304 3% 93%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 3% 83%  
309 3% 81%  
310 6% 77%  
311 3% 72%  
312 5% 68%  
313 5% 63%  
314 4% 58%  
315 5% 55%  
316 6% 49% Median
317 3% 43%  
318 7% 40%  
319 4% 33%  
320 4% 30%  
321 4% 26%  
322 3% 21%  
323 3% 18%  
324 3% 15%  
325 2% 12%  
326 3% 10%  
327 1.1% 7%  
328 1.0% 6%  
329 2% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.5% 3%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 0.9%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.2% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.2% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.5% 98.6%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.9% 98%  
298 1.1% 97%  
299 1.4% 96%  
300 2% 94% Last Result
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 3% 88%  
304 3% 85%  
305 5% 82%  
306 2% 77%  
307 6% 75%  
308 6% 69%  
309 4% 63%  
310 4% 58%  
311 6% 54%  
312 5% 49% Median
313 5% 44%  
314 4% 39%  
315 5% 35%  
316 3% 30%  
317 4% 27%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 20%  
320 3% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 3% 11%  
323 1.1% 8%  
324 1.5% 7%  
325 1.3% 6%  
326 1.0% 5%  
327 0.8% 4%  
328 0.9% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.4%  
331 0.3% 1.0%  
332 0.3% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.4% 99.2%  
286 0.4% 98.9%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 1.0% 98%  
289 0.8% 97%  
290 1.0% 96%  
291 1.2% 95%  
292 2% 94%  
293 2% 92%  
294 2% 90%  
295 2% 88%  
296 4% 86%  
297 4% 82%  
298 3% 78%  
299 5% 75%  
300 4% 70%  
301 6% 66%  
302 4% 60%  
303 5% 56%  
304 5% 51% Median
305 4% 46%  
306 5% 42%  
307 3% 37%  
308 6% 34%  
309 4% 28%  
310 3% 24%  
311 3% 21%  
312 5% 18%  
313 3% 13%  
314 2% 10%  
315 1.5% 8%  
316 2% 7%  
317 0.9% 5%  
318 1.0% 4%  
319 0.7% 3%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.4%  
245 0.2% 99.1%  
246 0.6% 98.9%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.9% 98%  
249 1.0% 97%  
250 1.3% 96%  
251 2% 95%  
252 2% 93%  
253 2% 91%  
254 3% 89%  
255 3% 85%  
256 5% 82%  
257 4% 78%  
258 6% 74%  
259 5% 68%  
260 3% 63%  
261 5% 59%  
262 6% 54%  
263 4% 48% Median
264 5% 44%  
265 6% 39%  
266 4% 33%  
267 4% 29%  
268 3% 26%  
269 4% 22%  
270 3% 18%  
271 3% 16%  
272 2% 13%  
273 2% 10%  
274 2% 8%  
275 1.3% 7%  
276 1.2% 5%  
277 0.9% 4%  
278 0.9% 3%  
279 0.6% 2%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.4% 1.2%  
282 0.3% 0.9%  
283 0.2% 0.6%  
284 0.2% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.4% 99.1%  
151 0.7% 98.7%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 1.0% 97%  
154 1.5% 96%  
155 2% 95%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 91%  
158 3% 88%  
159 5% 84%  
160 4% 80%  
161 5% 76%  
162 4% 71%  
163 5% 67%  
164 7% 62%  
165 5% 55%  
166 5% 50% Median
167 9% 45%  
168 4% 36%  
169 4% 32%  
170 5% 27%  
171 4% 22%  
172 4% 18%  
173 2% 15%  
174 3% 12%  
175 2% 9%  
176 2% 8%  
177 2% 6%  
178 1.5% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.4%  
182 0.3% 1.0%  
183 0.3% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.5%  
146 0.4% 99.3%  
147 0.6% 98.9%  
148 0.6% 98%  
149 0.8% 98%  
150 1.5% 97%  
151 2% 95%  
152 2% 93%  
153 2% 91%  
154 3% 89%  
155 4% 86%  
156 4% 82%  
157 4% 77%  
158 5% 73%  
159 7% 68%  
160 5% 61%  
161 6% 56%  
162 6% 50% Median
163 6% 44%  
164 5% 38%  
165 4% 33%  
166 4% 29%  
167 4% 25%  
168 4% 20%  
169 3% 17%  
170 3% 14%  
171 3% 11%  
172 2% 8%  
173 1.3% 6%  
174 1.1% 5%  
175 1.0% 3%  
176 0.9% 2%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.0%  
179 0.3% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations