Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 27–30 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.5% 26.3–28.8% 25.9–29.2% 25.6–29.5% 25.0–30.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–13.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 207 197–217 196–219 193–222 188–226
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 128–144 125–146 122–149 120–153
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–121 103–123 102–125 99–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 84–97 82–99 80–101 77–105
Die Linke 69 58 51–63 49–65 48–65 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 51–62 50–64 48–67 46–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 50 44–55 42–57 41–58 39–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0.1% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.2% 99.6%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.4% 99.4%  
191 0.5% 99.0%  
192 0.8% 98.5%  
193 0.8% 98%  
194 0.3% 97%  
195 2% 97%  
196 3% 95%  
197 3% 92%  
198 2% 89%  
199 1.2% 87%  
200 8% 86% Last Result
201 3% 78%  
202 2% 75%  
203 3% 73%  
204 6% 70%  
205 7% 64%  
206 5% 57%  
207 4% 52% Median
208 2% 48%  
209 13% 46%  
210 4% 33%  
211 4% 29%  
212 2% 25%  
213 1.5% 23%  
214 6% 22%  
215 4% 16%  
216 0.6% 12%  
217 3% 11%  
218 3% 8%  
219 2% 5%  
220 0.5% 4%  
221 0.4% 3%  
222 0.5% 3%  
223 1.0% 2%  
224 0.7% 1.4%  
225 0% 0.7%  
226 0.2% 0.7%  
227 0.2% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.2% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0.8% 99.4%  
122 1.2% 98.6%  
123 0.1% 97%  
124 1.0% 97%  
125 3% 96%  
126 2% 93%  
127 0.8% 91%  
128 8% 91%  
129 6% 83%  
130 3% 77%  
131 0.4% 74%  
132 6% 73%  
133 11% 68%  
134 4% 56%  
135 2% 52%  
136 7% 50% Median
137 9% 43%  
138 5% 35%  
139 0.6% 30%  
140 8% 29%  
141 8% 22%  
142 0.9% 14%  
143 2% 13%  
144 5% 11%  
145 1.2% 6%  
146 0.1% 5%  
147 0.3% 5%  
148 2% 5%  
149 1.2% 3%  
150 0.1% 1.4%  
151 0.6% 1.4%  
152 0.3% 0.8%  
153 0.3% 0.5%  
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.5% 99.5%  
100 0.7% 99.1%  
101 0.4% 98%  
102 3% 98%  
103 2% 95%  
104 1.0% 93%  
105 5% 92%  
106 2% 88%  
107 2% 85%  
108 14% 84%  
109 3% 70%  
110 3% 67%  
111 10% 63%  
112 7% 53% Median
113 5% 47%  
114 6% 41%  
115 5% 35%  
116 3% 30%  
117 5% 27%  
118 3% 22%  
119 1.2% 19%  
120 7% 18%  
121 3% 12%  
122 1.3% 9%  
123 4% 8%  
124 1.0% 4%  
125 0.3% 3%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.8% 1.4%  
128 0.2% 0.7%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.6%  
78 0.1% 99.3%  
79 1.1% 99.2%  
80 0.8% 98%  
81 1.0% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 1.3% 94%  
84 7% 93%  
85 0.5% 86%  
86 8% 85%  
87 7% 77%  
88 4% 70%  
89 9% 66%  
90 7% 57% Median
91 17% 50%  
92 4% 33%  
93 3% 29%  
94 9% 26% Last Result
95 3% 18%  
96 3% 15%  
97 3% 12%  
98 2% 9%  
99 3% 7%  
100 0.5% 4%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.4% 2%  
103 0.2% 1.4%  
104 0.5% 1.1%  
105 0.1% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 1.3% 99.2%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 95%  
51 2% 90%  
52 5% 88%  
53 6% 84%  
54 4% 78%  
55 6% 74%  
56 7% 68%  
57 5% 62%  
58 10% 57% Median
59 8% 47%  
60 11% 39%  
61 12% 27%  
62 4% 15%  
63 3% 11%  
64 3% 8%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.8% 99.4%  
48 1.5% 98.6%  
49 1.1% 97%  
50 3% 96%  
51 3% 93%  
52 5% 89%  
53 6% 85%  
54 8% 79%  
55 13% 71%  
56 5% 58%  
57 9% 53% Median
58 6% 44%  
59 6% 38%  
60 10% 31%  
61 6% 21%  
62 6% 15%  
63 2% 10%  
64 4% 8%  
65 1.3% 5%  
66 0.5% 3%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.1% 0.9%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.0%  
41 1.4% 98.5%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 95%  
44 6% 92%  
45 3% 86%  
46 9% 84%  
47 8% 75%  
48 12% 67%  
49 3% 55%  
50 12% 52% Median
51 10% 39%  
52 7% 29%  
53 5% 23%  
54 6% 18%  
55 5% 12%  
56 1.2% 7%  
57 4% 6%  
58 0.9% 3%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.9%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 511 100% 503–522 500–525 499–527 493–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 449 100% 438–459 436–462 433–463 428–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 426 100% 414–436 413–439 411–442 406–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 403 100% 395–413 389–419 388–420 384–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 399 100% 389–409 386–412 383–415 379–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 365–387 363–390 362–392 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 50% 344–364 340–368 338–370 335–374
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 302–322 301–327 297–328 291–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 306 0% 296–314 290–320 289–321 288–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 287–308 285–310 281–314 276–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 248 0% 240–260 235–261 233–265 230–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 161–179 159–181 157–184 153–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 154–172 152–174 150–175 145–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.9%  
492 0.2% 99.8%  
493 0.2% 99.7%  
494 0.1% 99.4%  
495 0.2% 99.3%  
496 0.3% 99.1%  
497 0.4% 98.8%  
498 0.2% 98%  
499 2% 98%  
500 1.4% 96%  
501 2% 95%  
502 0.4% 93%  
503 7% 92%  
504 2% 85%  
505 5% 83%  
506 1.2% 78%  
507 4% 77%  
508 2% 73%  
509 3% 70%  
510 13% 68%  
511 9% 55%  
512 4% 45% Median
513 3% 41%  
514 7% 38%  
515 1.3% 31%  
516 3% 29%  
517 5% 27%  
518 3% 22%  
519 1.1% 18%  
520 5% 17%  
521 1.4% 12%  
522 1.0% 11%  
523 3% 10%  
524 1.4% 7%  
525 2% 6%  
526 0.6% 4%  
527 0.8% 3%  
528 0.7% 2%  
529 0.6% 2%  
530 0.2% 1.1%  
531 0.3% 0.9%  
532 0.2% 0.6%  
533 0% 0.4%  
534 0.1% 0.4%  
535 0.1% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0.1% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0.2% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.5%  
429 0% 99.5%  
430 0.7% 99.4%  
431 0.2% 98.7%  
432 0.3% 98.6%  
433 0.8% 98%  
434 0.8% 97%  
435 1.3% 97%  
436 1.3% 95%  
437 1.2% 94%  
438 3% 93%  
439 1.2% 90%  
440 2% 88%  
441 4% 87%  
442 2% 83%  
443 4% 81%  
444 6% 77%  
445 7% 71%  
446 6% 65%  
447 4% 58%  
448 2% 54%  
449 3% 52%  
450 14% 50% Median
451 1.1% 36%  
452 4% 35%  
453 8% 31%  
454 2% 23%  
455 3% 21%  
456 4% 18%  
457 2% 14%  
458 1.2% 12%  
459 4% 11%  
460 0.6% 8%  
461 2% 7%  
462 1.2% 5%  
463 2% 4%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.3% 2%  
466 0.4% 2%  
467 0.6% 1.2%  
468 0.1% 0.6%  
469 0.2% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0.1% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.2% 99.7%  
406 0.2% 99.5%  
407 0.5% 99.3%  
408 0.3% 98.8%  
409 0.4% 98%  
410 0.3% 98%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 1.4% 97%  
413 1.4% 96%  
414 5% 95%  
415 0.5% 90%  
416 3% 89%  
417 2% 86%  
418 4% 84%  
419 2% 80%  
420 1.5% 78%  
421 4% 76%  
422 4% 73%  
423 3% 69%  
424 3% 65%  
425 9% 62%  
426 4% 53% Median
427 3% 49%  
428 7% 45%  
429 6% 39%  
430 2% 33%  
431 4% 30%  
432 5% 27%  
433 6% 22%  
434 4% 16%  
435 2% 12%  
436 2% 10%  
437 3% 8%  
438 0.7% 6%  
439 0.8% 5%  
440 0.9% 4%  
441 0.4% 3%  
442 0.7% 3%  
443 0.9% 2%  
444 0.6% 1.5%  
445 0.3% 0.9%  
446 0.2% 0.5%  
447 0% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0.1% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.7%  
383 0% 99.6%  
384 0.5% 99.5%  
385 0.3% 99.0%  
386 0.1% 98.7%  
387 0.3% 98.6%  
388 0.9% 98%  
389 3% 97%  
390 2% 94%  
391 0.1% 92%  
392 0.2% 92%  
393 0.5% 92%  
394 0.5% 92%  
395 6% 91%  
396 7% 85%  
397 4% 78%  
398 0.5% 74%  
399 0.7% 73%  
400 7% 73%  
401 8% 65%  
402 6% 57%  
403 2% 52%  
404 1.0% 49% Median
405 0.5% 48%  
406 1.2% 48%  
407 6% 46%  
408 16% 41%  
409 9% 25%  
410 0.3% 16%  
411 0.1% 15%  
412 2% 15%  
413 4% 13%  
414 0.9% 9%  
415 1.3% 8%  
416 1.0% 7%  
417 0.2% 6%  
418 0.1% 5%  
419 1.5% 5%  
420 3% 4% Last Result
421 0.3% 0.8%  
422 0% 0.5%  
423 0% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0.1% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.2% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.5% 99.4%  
381 0.4% 98.9%  
382 0.1% 98.5%  
383 2% 98%  
384 0.3% 97%  
385 0.3% 96%  
386 1.2% 96%  
387 3% 95%  
388 1.2% 91%  
389 2% 90%  
390 1.5% 88%  
391 3% 87%  
392 1.5% 84%  
393 5% 82%  
394 3% 78%  
395 7% 75%  
396 3% 68%  
397 7% 65%  
398 7% 59%  
399 2% 52%  
400 8% 50% Median
401 2% 41%  
402 8% 39%  
403 4% 31%  
404 3% 27%  
405 3% 24%  
406 3% 21%  
407 3% 17%  
408 2% 15%  
409 3% 12%  
410 2% 10%  
411 0.7% 8%  
412 3% 7%  
413 0.6% 4%  
414 0.6% 4%  
415 0.9% 3%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.6% 1.4%  
420 0.1% 0.8%  
421 0.3% 0.8%  
422 0.2% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0.1% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.7% Majority
356 0% 99.5%  
357 0.2% 99.5%  
358 0.2% 99.2%  
359 0.3% 99.0%  
360 0.6% 98.7%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 5% 97%  
364 0.5% 92%  
365 2% 91%  
366 2% 89%  
367 2% 87%  
368 3% 86%  
369 2% 83%  
370 2% 81%  
371 3% 79%  
372 3% 76%  
373 5% 73%  
374 6% 68%  
375 3% 62%  
376 3% 59% Median
377 10% 57%  
378 6% 46%  
379 5% 40%  
380 3% 36%  
381 6% 33%  
382 8% 27%  
383 2% 19%  
384 3% 17%  
385 1.1% 14%  
386 3% 13%  
387 3% 10%  
388 1.2% 8%  
389 1.1% 6%  
390 0.7% 5%  
391 0.7% 4%  
392 2% 4%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.1% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
400 0% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.2% 99.5%  
336 0.6% 99.3%  
337 0.3% 98.7%  
338 1.5% 98%  
339 1.1% 97%  
340 1.1% 96% Last Result
341 0.6% 95%  
342 2% 94%  
343 0.5% 92%  
344 2% 92%  
345 0.7% 90%  
346 4% 89%  
347 2% 86%  
348 6% 84%  
349 11% 77%  
350 2% 67%  
351 6% 64%  
352 3% 58%  
353 2% 55%  
354 3% 53% Median
355 1.2% 50% Majority
356 3% 49%  
357 7% 46%  
358 4% 39%  
359 6% 35%  
360 10% 29%  
361 6% 19%  
362 2% 13%  
363 0.7% 11%  
364 1.4% 10%  
365 0.8% 9%  
366 1.5% 8%  
367 0.2% 6%  
368 2% 6%  
369 1.3% 4%  
370 1.0% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.3%  
373 0.4% 1.0%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.3% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0% 99.2%  
295 0.5% 99.2%  
296 0.7% 98.6%  
297 1.1% 98%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.1% 97%  
300 0.7% 96%  
301 2% 96%  
302 5% 93%  
303 0.9% 89%  
304 0.2% 88%  
305 4% 88%  
306 8% 84%  
307 6% 76%  
308 1.5% 70%  
309 0.4% 69%  
310 2% 68%  
311 4% 66%  
312 10% 63%  
313 4% 53%  
314 0.7% 49% Median
315 2% 48%  
316 3% 46%  
317 16% 43%  
318 3% 27%  
319 0.2% 24%  
320 1.2% 24%  
321 2% 22%  
322 11% 20%  
323 3% 10%  
324 0.1% 7%  
325 0.4% 7%  
326 0.9% 6% Last Result
327 2% 5%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.8% 2%  
332 0.4% 1.2%  
333 0.5% 0.9%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.3% 99.5%  
289 3% 99.2% Last Result
290 1.5% 96%  
291 0.1% 95%  
292 0.2% 95%  
293 1.0% 94%  
294 1.3% 93%  
295 0.9% 92%  
296 4% 91%  
297 2% 87%  
298 0.1% 85%  
299 0.3% 85%  
300 9% 84%  
301 16% 75%  
302 6% 59%  
303 1.2% 54%  
304 0.5% 52%  
305 1.0% 52%  
306 2% 51% Median
307 6% 48%  
308 8% 43%  
309 7% 35%  
310 0.7% 27%  
311 0.5% 27%  
312 4% 26%  
313 7% 22%  
314 6% 15%  
315 0.5% 9%  
316 0.5% 8%  
317 0.2% 8%  
318 0.1% 8%  
319 2% 8%  
320 3% 6%  
321 0.9% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.1% 1.4%  
324 0.3% 1.3%  
325 0.5% 1.0%  
326 0% 0.5%  
327 0.2% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.2%  
280 0.5% 99.0%  
281 1.2% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 1.5% 97%  
285 1.1% 95%  
286 1.4% 94%  
287 4% 93%  
288 0.9% 89%  
289 8% 88%  
290 3% 79%  
291 4% 76%  
292 3% 72%  
293 4% 69%  
294 5% 65%  
295 4% 60%  
296 4% 57%  
297 3% 52%  
298 1.3% 50% Median
299 10% 48%  
300 4% 39% Last Result
301 2% 35%  
302 3% 32%  
303 6% 29%  
304 3% 23%  
305 4% 20%  
306 1.2% 16%  
307 4% 15%  
308 3% 11%  
309 2% 8%  
310 0.8% 5%  
311 0.7% 5%  
312 0.4% 4%  
313 0.7% 4%  
314 1.3% 3%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.5%  
317 0.4% 1.3%  
318 0.4% 0.9%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0.1% 100%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.6%  
231 1.0% 99.5%  
232 0.3% 98%  
233 0.8% 98%  
234 0.9% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 1.2% 95%  
237 0.7% 93%  
238 2% 93%  
239 0.8% 91%  
240 8% 90%  
241 14% 82%  
242 2% 68%  
243 3% 66%  
244 0.2% 63%  
245 3% 63%  
246 3% 60%  
247 3% 57%  
248 9% 54% Median
249 5% 45%  
250 5% 40%  
251 5% 35%  
252 5% 30%  
253 1.4% 25%  
254 2% 24%  
255 2% 22%  
256 2% 20%  
257 3% 18%  
258 2% 14%  
259 2% 13%  
260 1.1% 11%  
261 5% 10%  
262 1.1% 4%  
263 0.4% 3%  
264 0.2% 3%  
265 0.2% 3%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.8% 2%  
268 0.5% 1.1%  
269 0.2% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.2% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.4% 99.3%  
155 0.8% 98.9%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 1.0% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.7% 95%  
160 4% 94%  
161 2% 90%  
162 1.3% 88%  
163 0.8% 87%  
164 6% 86%  
165 6% 80%  
166 2% 74%  
167 2% 72%  
168 12% 70%  
169 7% 58%  
170 7% 51% Median
171 3% 44%  
172 6% 41%  
173 5% 36%  
174 2% 31%  
175 6% 29%  
176 7% 23%  
177 1.1% 15%  
178 4% 14%  
179 2% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 1.1% 6%  
182 0.6% 5%  
183 2% 4%  
184 1.1% 3%  
185 0.1% 1.5%  
186 0.1% 1.4%  
187 0.7% 1.2%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0% 0.4%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.6%  
145 0.3% 99.5%  
146 0.2% 99.3%  
147 0.2% 99.1%  
148 0.4% 98.8%  
149 0.6% 98%  
150 0.7% 98%  
151 1.4% 97%  
152 2% 96%  
153 3% 94%  
154 2% 91%  
155 7% 89%  
156 9% 82%  
157 3% 73%  
158 2% 70%  
159 12% 67%  
160 3% 56%  
161 5% 53%  
162 2% 48% Median
163 7% 46%  
164 2% 39%  
165 5% 37%  
166 2% 32%  
167 3% 29%  
168 5% 27%  
169 5% 22%  
170 3% 17%  
171 2% 14%  
172 3% 11%  
173 2% 8%  
174 4% 6%  
175 0.6% 3%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.0%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations