Opinion Poll by YouGov, 27–30 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.6% 26.2–29.1% 25.8–29.5% 25.5–29.9% 24.8–30.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.7–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.7–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.4% 5.7–7.2% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 206 195–217 192–221 190–224 185–231
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 125–144 123–147 121–149 117–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 110–129 108–131 106–133 103–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 89 82–98 80–100 78–102 75–106
Die Linke 69 67 61–74 59–76 57–79 55–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 48 42–54 41–56 39–58 37–60
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.2% 99.7%  
185 0.2% 99.5%  
186 0.2% 99.3%  
187 0.3% 99.1%  
188 0.4% 98.8%  
189 0.8% 98%  
190 0.8% 98%  
191 0.8% 97%  
192 1.3% 96%  
193 1.5% 95%  
194 2% 93%  
195 2% 92%  
196 4% 90%  
197 2% 86%  
198 3% 84%  
199 3% 80%  
200 4% 77% Last Result
201 5% 74%  
202 3% 69%  
203 4% 65%  
204 5% 61%  
205 6% 56%  
206 3% 50% Median
207 4% 47%  
208 3% 43%  
209 6% 39%  
210 5% 34%  
211 3% 29%  
212 4% 26%  
213 3% 22%  
214 3% 19%  
215 2% 16%  
216 3% 14%  
217 2% 11%  
218 1.4% 9%  
219 1.1% 7%  
220 0.9% 6%  
221 1.0% 5%  
222 0.8% 4%  
223 0.6% 3%  
224 0.5% 3%  
225 0.7% 2%  
226 0.3% 2%  
227 0.2% 1.3%  
228 0.2% 1.1%  
229 0.1% 0.9%  
230 0.2% 0.7%  
231 0.1% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.4%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.6%  
118 0.4% 99.3%  
119 0.4% 98.9%  
120 0.5% 98.6%  
121 1.1% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 1.2% 95%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 2% 90%  
127 6% 88%  
128 5% 81%  
129 3% 76%  
130 3% 73%  
131 6% 70%  
132 3% 65%  
133 6% 61%  
134 4% 55%  
135 4% 51% Median
136 5% 47%  
137 6% 42%  
138 7% 36%  
139 5% 29%  
140 3% 24%  
141 2% 21%  
142 2% 18%  
143 5% 16%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 1.4% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 0.6% 4%  
149 0.9% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.3% 1.4%  
153 0.3% 1.1%  
154 0.3% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.3% 99.2%  
105 0.6% 98.9%  
106 0.9% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 2% 96%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 3% 89%  
112 3% 87%  
113 4% 84%  
114 3% 80%  
115 4% 77%  
116 5% 74%  
117 7% 69%  
118 8% 62%  
119 8% 54% Median
120 6% 47%  
121 6% 40%  
122 4% 34%  
123 3% 30%  
124 4% 27%  
125 3% 23%  
126 4% 20%  
127 3% 17%  
128 3% 13%  
129 2% 11%  
130 2% 8%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.0% 4%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.2% 1.2%  
137 0.3% 1.0%  
138 0.2% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 0.4% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 98.9%  
78 1.0% 98%  
79 1.0% 97%  
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 2% 91%  
83 2% 89%  
84 5% 86%  
85 5% 82%  
86 4% 76%  
87 5% 72%  
88 12% 67%  
89 6% 55% Median
90 4% 49%  
91 9% 45%  
92 5% 36%  
93 4% 31%  
94 5% 27% Last Result
95 4% 22%  
96 4% 18%  
97 2% 14%  
98 3% 12%  
99 3% 9%  
100 1.3% 6%  
101 1.5% 5%  
102 1.0% 3%  
103 0.7% 2%  
104 0.5% 2%  
105 0.3% 1.1%  
106 0.4% 0.9%  
107 0.1% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 1.5% 99.1%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 1.1% 96%  
59 2% 95%  
60 3% 94%  
61 5% 91%  
62 6% 86%  
63 7% 80%  
64 4% 72%  
65 5% 69%  
66 5% 64%  
67 12% 59% Median
68 7% 47%  
69 10% 40% Last Result
70 4% 30%  
71 3% 26%  
72 6% 23%  
73 5% 17%  
74 3% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 7%  
77 1.1% 5%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 0.9% 99.2%  
39 1.2% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 3% 96%  
42 5% 93%  
43 5% 88%  
44 6% 83%  
45 7% 76%  
46 9% 69% Last Result
47 8% 61%  
48 11% 53% Median
49 7% 42%  
50 6% 35%  
51 6% 29%  
52 7% 23%  
53 4% 17%  
54 4% 12%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 4%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0.1% 97%  
38 2% 96%  
39 5% 94%  
40 3% 89%  
41 6% 85%  
42 8% 79%  
43 8% 71%  
44 6% 63%  
45 8% 56% Median
46 12% 48%  
47 7% 36%  
48 7% 28%  
49 6% 21%  
50 5% 16%  
51 3% 11%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 508 100% 496–519 493–524 490–537 486–550
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 433 100% 421–445 417–448 413–450 404–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 417 100% 406–429 401–432 396–434 387–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 388 100% 376–401 373–406 370–411 365–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 387 99.6% 376–400 371–403 367–405 356–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 373 98% 361–386 358–390 355–396 349–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 14% 332–356 328–360 325–366 320–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0.4% 309–333 306–338 304–342 297–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 298 0% 286–310 280–313 275–316 261–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 286–310 281–313 274–316 260–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 242–266 239–269 236–273 232–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 186 0% 177–198 173–200 171–204 167–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 153–174 149–177 131–179 118–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 99.9%  
481 0% 99.9%  
482 0.1% 99.9%  
483 0% 99.8%  
484 0.1% 99.8%  
485 0.2% 99.7%  
486 0.2% 99.5%  
487 0.2% 99.3%  
488 0.5% 99.1%  
489 0.3% 98.6%  
490 0.8% 98%  
491 0.6% 97%  
492 0.9% 97%  
493 1.1% 96%  
494 1.2% 95%  
495 2% 94%  
496 2% 92%  
497 2% 90%  
498 2% 87%  
499 3% 85%  
500 3% 82%  
501 4% 79%  
502 3% 75%  
503 6% 72%  
504 4% 66%  
505 3% 62%  
506 5% 59%  
507 4% 54%  
508 6% 50% Median
509 4% 44%  
510 5% 40%  
511 3% 35%  
512 3% 31%  
513 5% 28%  
514 3% 23%  
515 2% 20%  
516 3% 18%  
517 2% 15%  
518 2% 13%  
519 2% 11%  
520 1.2% 9%  
521 1.4% 8%  
522 0.7% 7%  
523 0.7% 6%  
524 0.6% 5%  
525 0.5% 5%  
526 0.1% 4%  
527 0.3% 4%  
528 0.1% 4%  
529 0.2% 4%  
530 0.1% 3%  
531 0.1% 3%  
532 0.2% 3%  
533 0.1% 3%  
534 0.1% 3%  
535 0.1% 3%  
536 0.2% 3%  
537 0% 3%  
538 0.1% 2%  
539 0.3% 2%  
540 0.1% 2%  
541 0.2% 2%  
542 0.1% 2%  
543 0.4% 2%  
544 0.2% 1.4%  
545 0.2% 1.2%  
546 0.1% 1.0%  
547 0% 0.9%  
548 0.2% 0.8%  
549 0.1% 0.7%  
550 0.1% 0.5%  
551 0.1% 0.4%  
552 0% 0.3%  
553 0.1% 0.3%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0.1% 0.2%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.1% 99.5%  
405 0.1% 99.5%  
406 0.2% 99.4%  
407 0.3% 99.2%  
408 0.2% 98.9%  
409 0.3% 98.7%  
410 0.2% 98%  
411 0.2% 98%  
412 0.3% 98%  
413 0.4% 98%  
414 0.4% 97%  
415 1.0% 97%  
416 0.9% 96%  
417 1.2% 95%  
418 2% 94%  
419 1.2% 92%  
420 1.0% 91%  
421 3% 90%  
422 2% 87%  
423 1.3% 85%  
424 3% 84%  
425 2% 81%  
426 3% 79%  
427 3% 76%  
428 5% 73%  
429 3% 67%  
430 6% 65%  
431 4% 59%  
432 4% 55%  
433 3% 51%  
434 3% 48% Median
435 3% 45%  
436 9% 41%  
437 2% 32%  
438 5% 30%  
439 3% 24%  
440 3% 21%  
441 2% 18%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 14%  
444 2% 12%  
445 2% 10%  
446 2% 8%  
447 1.2% 6%  
448 1.2% 5%  
449 0.9% 4%  
450 0.8% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.5% 2%  
453 0.2% 1.2%  
454 0.2% 1.0%  
455 0.2% 0.7%  
456 0.2% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.4%  
389 0.1% 99.3%  
390 0.1% 99.2%  
391 0.1% 99.1%  
392 0.3% 99.0%  
393 0.3% 98.8%  
394 0.2% 98%  
395 0.2% 98%  
396 0.6% 98%  
397 0.4% 97%  
398 0.3% 97%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 0.5% 96%  
401 0.8% 96%  
402 1.3% 95%  
403 0.8% 94%  
404 0.9% 93%  
405 0.8% 92%  
406 2% 91%  
407 5% 89%  
408 3% 85%  
409 2% 82%  
410 2% 80%  
411 7% 78%  
412 4% 71%  
413 3% 67%  
414 3% 64%  
415 3% 61%  
416 5% 59%  
417 5% 54%  
418 4% 49% Median
419 3% 44%  
420 2% 41%  
421 4% 39%  
422 5% 36%  
423 5% 31%  
424 4% 26%  
425 0.9% 23%  
426 2% 22%  
427 3% 20%  
428 6% 16%  
429 2% 11%  
430 0.6% 9%  
431 1.3% 8%  
432 2% 7%  
433 2% 5%  
434 0.7% 3%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.4% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.4% 1.4%  
439 0.4% 1.0%  
440 0.1% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.4%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.2% 99.3%  
367 0.3% 99.1%  
368 0.3% 98.8%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 1.0% 97%  
372 0.9% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 1.1% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 1.5% 91%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 88%  
379 3% 86%  
380 3% 83%  
381 4% 80%  
382 4% 77%  
383 3% 72%  
384 6% 69%  
385 3% 63%  
386 4% 60%  
387 2% 56%  
388 5% 54%  
389 4% 49% Median
390 5% 45%  
391 3% 40%  
392 6% 37%  
393 3% 31%  
394 3% 27%  
395 3% 24%  
396 3% 22%  
397 2% 19%  
398 2% 17%  
399 2% 16%  
400 3% 13%  
401 2% 11%  
402 1.2% 9%  
403 1.2% 8%  
404 0.7% 6%  
405 0.7% 6%  
406 0.5% 5%  
407 0.6% 4%  
408 0.3% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.3% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0% 2%  
417 0.3% 2%  
418 0.1% 1.2%  
419 0.1% 1.1%  
420 0.1% 1.0%  
421 0.1% 0.9%  
422 0.1% 0.8%  
423 0.1% 0.8%  
424 0.1% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.6%  
426 0.2% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0.1% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.1% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.2% 99.2%  
360 0.1% 99.1%  
361 0.3% 98.9%  
362 0.2% 98.7%  
363 0.2% 98.5%  
364 0.2% 98%  
365 0.1% 98%  
366 0.5% 98%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.4% 97%  
369 0.7% 97%  
370 0.4% 96%  
371 1.2% 96%  
372 0.6% 95%  
373 0.9% 94%  
374 1.2% 93%  
375 0.8% 92%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 87%  
379 3% 86%  
380 3% 83%  
381 8% 80%  
382 2% 72%  
383 4% 70%  
384 5% 66%  
385 3% 61%  
386 6% 58%  
387 4% 53%  
388 3% 49% Median
389 2% 46%  
390 3% 44%  
391 3% 41%  
392 4% 37%  
393 4% 34%  
394 4% 30%  
395 4% 26%  
396 3% 23%  
397 3% 20%  
398 2% 16%  
399 3% 14%  
400 2% 11%  
401 1.0% 8%  
402 2% 7%  
403 1.0% 5%  
404 1.1% 4%  
405 1.0% 3%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.3%  
410 0.2% 1.0%  
411 0.2% 0.8%  
412 0.2% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.2% 99.5%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.3% 99.0%  
353 0.4% 98.7%  
354 0.6% 98%  
355 0.4% 98% Majority
356 0.6% 97%  
357 0.9% 97%  
358 1.2% 96%  
359 1.3% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 3% 92%  
362 2% 89%  
363 2% 87%  
364 4% 85%  
365 5% 81%  
366 2% 76%  
367 2% 74%  
368 5% 72%  
369 4% 66%  
370 4% 62%  
371 3% 58%  
372 4% 55%  
373 4% 51% Median
374 3% 47%  
375 4% 45%  
376 5% 41%  
377 3% 36%  
378 4% 33%  
379 3% 29%  
380 3% 26%  
381 2% 24%  
382 5% 21%  
383 2% 17%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 13%  
386 2% 11%  
387 1.4% 9%  
388 1.5% 8%  
389 0.9% 6%  
390 0.5% 5%  
391 0.5% 5%  
392 0.4% 4%  
393 0.6% 4%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.2% 3%  
396 0.3% 3%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.3% 2% Last Result
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.1% 2%  
402 0.1% 1.4%  
403 0.3% 1.4%  
404 0.1% 1.1%  
405 0.2% 1.0%  
406 0% 0.7%  
407 0% 0.7%  
408 0% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.2% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.4% 99.1%  
323 0.4% 98.7%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 0.7% 97%  
327 0.6% 97%  
328 1.2% 96%  
329 1.0% 95%  
330 1.4% 94%  
331 1.4% 92%  
332 2% 91%  
333 1.4% 89%  
334 2% 87%  
335 7% 85%  
336 3% 78%  
337 2% 75%  
338 5% 73%  
339 3% 68%  
340 4% 64% Last Result
341 3% 60%  
342 6% 57%  
343 2% 51% Median
344 3% 49%  
345 4% 45%  
346 2% 41%  
347 2% 39%  
348 5% 36%  
349 4% 31%  
350 4% 27%  
351 3% 23%  
352 3% 21%  
353 2% 18%  
354 2% 16%  
355 3% 14% Majority
356 1.4% 11%  
357 2% 9%  
358 2% 8%  
359 0.9% 6%  
360 0.6% 5%  
361 0.7% 5%  
362 0.5% 4%  
363 0.4% 4%  
364 0.3% 3%  
365 0.3% 3%  
366 0.2% 3%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.2% 1.3%  
373 0.1% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 1.1%  
375 0.2% 0.9%  
376 0.2% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.2%  
300 0.3% 99.0%  
301 0.3% 98.7%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 1.0% 98%  
305 1.1% 97%  
306 1.0% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 1.0% 93%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 89%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 84%  
313 3% 80%  
314 4% 77%  
315 4% 74%  
316 4% 70%  
317 4% 66%  
318 3% 63%  
319 3% 59%  
320 2% 56%  
321 3% 54% Median
322 4% 51%  
323 6% 47%  
324 3% 42%  
325 5% 39%  
326 4% 34%  
327 2% 30%  
328 8% 28%  
329 3% 20%  
330 3% 17%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 13%  
333 2% 10%  
334 0.8% 9%  
335 1.2% 8%  
336 0.9% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 1.2% 5%  
339 0.4% 4%  
340 0.7% 4%  
341 0.4% 3%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.5%  
348 0.3% 1.3%  
349 0.1% 1.1%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0.1% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.3%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.8%  
267 0% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.6%  
269 0.1% 98.5%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.1% 98%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 0.6% 96%  
280 0.8% 96%  
281 0.3% 95%  
282 1.1% 95%  
283 0.6% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 0.7% 91%  
286 0.9% 91%  
287 3% 90%  
288 3% 87%  
289 3% 84%  
290 2% 82%  
291 2% 79%  
292 4% 77%  
293 5% 73%  
294 2% 68%  
295 5% 65%  
296 3% 60%  
297 3% 58%  
298 7% 54%  
299 4% 47% Median
300 2% 43%  
301 3% 41%  
302 5% 39%  
303 5% 34%  
304 4% 28%  
305 3% 25%  
306 2% 22%  
307 4% 20%  
308 3% 16%  
309 2% 13%  
310 0.8% 11%  
311 2% 10%  
312 2% 8%  
313 2% 6%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.7% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.3%  
320 0.1% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 0.1% 99.0%  
265 0.1% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.9%  
267 0.1% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.6%  
269 0.2% 98.5%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.2% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.3% 96%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 0.5% 95%  
282 1.0% 95%  
283 0.9% 94%  
284 1.0% 93%  
285 1.4% 92%  
286 2% 90%  
287 2% 88%  
288 3% 87%  
289 2% 84%  
290 3% 82%  
291 3% 80%  
292 4% 77%  
293 4% 73%  
294 4% 69%  
295 4% 66%  
296 2% 62%  
297 5% 60%  
298 5% 55%  
299 2% 50% Median
300 5% 47% Last Result
301 5% 43%  
302 4% 38%  
303 3% 33%  
304 5% 30%  
305 3% 25%  
306 2% 23%  
307 4% 21%  
308 2% 17%  
309 3% 14%  
310 2% 11%  
311 2% 9%  
312 2% 7%  
313 1.2% 6%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 0.8% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.7% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.2%  
320 0.3% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0.2% 99.3%  
234 0.3% 99.0%  
235 0.5% 98.7%  
236 0.9% 98%  
237 0.6% 97%  
238 0.8% 97%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 2% 95%  
241 2% 93%  
242 2% 91%  
243 2% 90%  
244 3% 87%  
245 2% 85%  
246 5% 83%  
247 3% 78%  
248 4% 75%  
249 4% 71%  
250 4% 67%  
251 2% 63%  
252 4% 61%  
253 4% 57%  
254 4% 53% Median
255 4% 49%  
256 6% 45%  
257 6% 39%  
258 3% 34%  
259 3% 31%  
260 3% 28%  
261 4% 24%  
262 3% 20%  
263 3% 17%  
264 1.3% 14%  
265 2% 13%  
266 3% 11%  
267 2% 8%  
268 0.7% 7%  
269 1.0% 6%  
270 0.7% 5%  
271 1.0% 4%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.5% 3%  
274 0.3% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.2% 1.4%  
278 0.3% 1.2%  
279 0.1% 0.9%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.3% 99.5%  
168 0.4% 99.2%  
169 0.2% 98.8%  
170 0.2% 98.6%  
171 1.5% 98%  
172 1.2% 97%  
173 2% 96%  
174 1.1% 93%  
175 0.7% 92%  
176 1.4% 92%  
177 4% 90%  
178 3% 87%  
179 4% 83%  
180 2% 80%  
181 1.5% 78%  
182 5% 76%  
183 7% 71%  
184 5% 64%  
185 7% 59%  
186 2% 52% Median
187 2% 49%  
188 7% 47%  
189 6% 39%  
190 5% 33%  
191 2% 29%  
192 1.4% 27%  
193 3% 26%  
194 5% 23%  
195 5% 18%  
196 2% 14%  
197 1.0% 12%  
198 2% 11%  
199 2% 9%  
200 3% 7%  
201 0.9% 4%  
202 0.4% 3%  
203 0.3% 3%  
204 0.6% 3%  
205 0.4% 2%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.2% 1.2%  
208 0.1% 1.0%  
209 0.2% 0.9%  
210 0.2% 0.7%  
211 0.2% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.1% 99.4%  
121 0.1% 99.3%  
122 0.1% 99.2%  
123 0.1% 99.1%  
124 0.3% 99.0%  
125 0.2% 98.7%  
126 0.2% 98.6%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 0.3% 98%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.2% 97%  
136 0% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0% 97%  
139 0.1% 97%  
140 0% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0.1% 96%  
144 0.1% 96%  
145 0.2% 96%  
146 0.2% 96%  
147 0.3% 96%  
148 0.5% 96%  
149 0.6% 95%  
150 0.6% 94%  
151 1.1% 94%  
152 1.0% 93%  
153 2% 92%  
154 1.2% 89%  
155 3% 88%  
156 3% 85%  
157 2% 82%  
158 4% 80%  
159 4% 76%  
160 4% 72%  
161 4% 68%  
162 5% 65%  
163 5% 60%  
164 8% 55% Median
165 4% 48%  
166 6% 43%  
167 5% 37%  
168 4% 32%  
169 4% 28%  
170 4% 24%  
171 3% 20%  
172 3% 17%  
173 3% 14%  
174 2% 11%  
175 3% 10%  
176 1.4% 7%  
177 1.4% 6%  
178 0.9% 4%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.3%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.6%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0.1% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations