Opinion Poll by Kantar, 25 March–1 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.9% 25.4–28.4% 25.0–28.9% 24.6–29.2% 23.9–30.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.2% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–8.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 199 189–212 186–216 183–219 178–226
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 124–145 122–147 120–149 116–156
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 124–144 122–147 120–150 116–155
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–91 72–93 71–95 67–99
Die Linke 69 67 60–74 58–77 57–79 54–83
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 41–52 39–54 38–56 35–60
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.3% 99.4%  
180 0.2% 99.1%  
181 0.3% 98.9%  
182 0.7% 98.6%  
183 1.0% 98%  
184 0.5% 97%  
185 0.8% 96%  
186 1.2% 96%  
187 2% 94%  
188 1.4% 92%  
189 2% 91%  
190 3% 89%  
191 4% 86%  
192 3% 82%  
193 3% 79%  
194 3% 76%  
195 5% 73%  
196 6% 68%  
197 2% 62%  
198 2% 59%  
199 8% 57% Median
200 5% 49% Last Result
201 4% 44%  
202 3% 40%  
203 5% 38%  
204 5% 33%  
205 3% 28%  
206 2% 24%  
207 2% 22%  
208 4% 20%  
209 2% 15%  
210 3% 14%  
211 0.9% 11%  
212 2% 10%  
213 1.4% 8%  
214 1.0% 7%  
215 0.5% 6%  
216 1.1% 5%  
217 0.6% 4%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.5% 3%  
220 0.3% 2%  
221 0.5% 2%  
222 0.3% 2%  
223 0.2% 1.2%  
224 0.1% 1.0%  
225 0.3% 0.9%  
226 0.2% 0.7%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0% 0.4%  
229 0.2% 0.4%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.4% 99.3%  
119 0.8% 98.9%  
120 1.1% 98%  
121 1.4% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 92%  
125 3% 89%  
126 2% 87%  
127 1.3% 85%  
128 2% 83%  
129 3% 82%  
130 4% 79%  
131 5% 75%  
132 5% 69%  
133 9% 65%  
134 10% 56% Median
135 9% 45%  
136 5% 37%  
137 3% 32%  
138 2% 28%  
139 1.5% 26%  
140 2% 25%  
141 3% 23%  
142 2% 20%  
143 3% 18%  
144 3% 15%  
145 4% 12%  
146 3% 9%  
147 2% 5%  
148 0.7% 3%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.3% 2%  
152 0.2% 2%  
153 0.2% 1.3% Last Result
154 0.3% 1.1%  
155 0.3% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.5%  
117 0.4% 99.3%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 0.6% 98%  
120 0.7% 98%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 93%  
125 2% 90%  
126 2% 88%  
127 3% 86%  
128 3% 82%  
129 4% 79%  
130 4% 75%  
131 4% 71%  
132 4% 67%  
133 5% 64%  
134 8% 58%  
135 6% 51% Median
136 6% 45%  
137 4% 39%  
138 4% 35%  
139 4% 32%  
140 5% 28%  
141 5% 23%  
142 4% 17%  
143 2% 14%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 10%  
146 1.2% 7%  
147 2% 6%  
148 1.3% 5%  
149 0.7% 3%  
150 0.4% 3%  
151 0.3% 2%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.4% 1.4%  
154 0.3% 1.0%  
155 0.2% 0.7%  
156 0.1% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.3%  
69 0.4% 99.0%  
70 0.8% 98.7%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 1.4% 95%  
74 2% 93%  
75 4% 92%  
76 5% 88%  
77 5% 83%  
78 5% 78%  
79 3% 74%  
80 7% 71%  
81 9% 64%  
82 7% 54% Median
83 3% 48%  
84 6% 45%  
85 5% 39%  
86 10% 34%  
87 5% 24%  
88 3% 19%  
89 2% 16%  
90 3% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.1% 5%  
94 1.1% 4% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.4%  
98 0.3% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.5% 99.5%  
55 0.5% 99.0%  
56 1.0% 98.5%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 2% 94%  
60 4% 92%  
61 4% 88%  
62 4% 84%  
63 5% 81%  
64 6% 75%  
65 10% 69%  
66 5% 59%  
67 10% 55% Median
68 6% 44%  
69 8% 38% Last Result
70 6% 30%  
71 5% 24%  
72 4% 19%  
73 3% 15%  
74 3% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 1.4% 7%  
77 2% 6%  
78 0.8% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.7% 99.3%  
37 0.6% 98.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 3% 93%  
41 6% 90%  
42 4% 84%  
43 9% 81%  
44 10% 72%  
45 5% 62%  
46 11% 57% Last Result, Median
47 8% 45%  
48 6% 38%  
49 8% 32%  
50 5% 24%  
51 6% 19%  
52 4% 14%  
53 2% 9%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 0.7% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.8%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0.8% 97%  
38 3% 96%  
39 2% 93%  
40 5% 90%  
41 8% 85%  
42 7% 78%  
43 6% 71%  
44 9% 65%  
45 16% 56% Median
46 5% 40%  
47 7% 35%  
48 6% 28%  
49 5% 22%  
50 3% 16%  
51 5% 13%  
52 3% 9%  
53 1.1% 6%  
54 1.3% 5%  
55 1.4% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.3% 1.3%  
58 0.6% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 514 100% 504–527 501–532 498–546 492–559
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 424 100% 413–437 409–441 405–444 395–449
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 425 100% 413–437 408–441 405–443 395–449
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 380 99.7% 368–393 365–398 362–405 355–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 379 99.6% 369–394 365–398 362–404 355–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 373 96% 360–385 356–389 352–392 340–398
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 336 4% 324–349 320–353 317–357 311–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 329 2% 315–342 314–346 310–351 303–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 313 0% 301–326 296–329 290–332 275–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 290 0% 278–303 274–307 269–310 252–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 269 0% 257–281 253–284 251–289 245–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 200 0% 192–213 187–216 184–219 180–227
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 179 0% 168–190 163–193 150–196 136–201

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 99.9%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0% 99.9%  
489 0.1% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.8%  
491 0.1% 99.7%  
492 0.1% 99.6%  
493 0.2% 99.4%  
494 0.3% 99.2%  
495 0.2% 98.9%  
496 0.4% 98.7%  
497 0.5% 98%  
498 0.9% 98%  
499 0.6% 97%  
500 1.1% 96%  
501 0.8% 95%  
502 2% 94%  
503 1.0% 93%  
504 2% 91%  
505 3% 90%  
506 3% 87%  
507 3% 84%  
508 5% 81%  
509 3% 76%  
510 3% 73%  
511 5% 70%  
512 3% 65%  
513 10% 62%  
514 5% 53% Median
515 4% 48%  
516 5% 44%  
517 3% 39%  
518 4% 36%  
519 2% 32%  
520 5% 30%  
521 4% 25%  
522 2% 21%  
523 3% 19%  
524 2% 16%  
525 3% 14%  
526 2% 12%  
527 1.1% 10%  
528 1.4% 9%  
529 0.8% 8%  
530 0.9% 7%  
531 0.4% 6%  
532 0.9% 5%  
533 0.6% 4%  
534 0.1% 4%  
535 0.2% 4%  
536 0.3% 4%  
537 0.1% 3%  
538 0.1% 3%  
539 0.1% 3%  
540 0.1% 3%  
541 0.1% 3%  
542 0.1% 3%  
543 0.1% 3%  
544 0% 3%  
545 0% 3%  
546 0.3% 3%  
547 0.3% 2%  
548 0.2% 2%  
549 0.1% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0.1% 2%  
552 0.1% 2%  
553 0.2% 2%  
554 0.2% 1.4%  
555 0.2% 1.1%  
556 0.2% 1.0%  
557 0.1% 0.8%  
558 0.1% 0.7%  
559 0.1% 0.6%  
560 0% 0.4%  
561 0% 0.4%  
562 0.1% 0.3%  
563 0.1% 0.2%  
564 0% 0.2%  
565 0.1% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0% 99.7%  
394 0.1% 99.6%  
395 0.2% 99.6%  
396 0.1% 99.4%  
397 0.1% 99.3%  
398 0.2% 99.2%  
399 0.1% 99.0%  
400 0.2% 98.9%  
401 0.2% 98.7%  
402 0.2% 98.5%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.4% 98%  
405 0.4% 98%  
406 0.4% 97%  
407 0.8% 97%  
408 0.5% 96%  
409 1.0% 95%  
410 1.3% 94%  
411 1.0% 93%  
412 2% 92%  
413 2% 90%  
414 1.5% 88%  
415 3% 87%  
416 2% 84%  
417 4% 82%  
418 7% 78%  
419 3% 72%  
420 3% 69%  
421 3% 66%  
422 5% 64%  
423 2% 58%  
424 7% 56% Median
425 3% 49%  
426 3% 46%  
427 2% 43%  
428 6% 41%  
429 2% 35%  
430 6% 32%  
431 2% 26%  
432 2% 24%  
433 3% 22%  
434 3% 19%  
435 2% 16%  
436 3% 13%  
437 1.3% 11%  
438 1.1% 9%  
439 2% 8%  
440 1.0% 7%  
441 1.1% 6%  
442 1.0% 4%  
443 0.9% 3%  
444 0.4% 3%  
445 0.5% 2%  
446 0.4% 2%  
447 0.3% 1.2%  
448 0.3% 0.9%  
449 0.1% 0.6%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.5%  
396 0% 99.5%  
397 0.1% 99.4%  
398 0.2% 99.4%  
399 0.1% 99.2%  
400 0.1% 99.1%  
401 0.2% 99.0%  
402 0.1% 98.8%  
403 0.2% 98.6%  
404 0.3% 98%  
405 0.9% 98%  
406 0.6% 97%  
407 0.8% 97%  
408 1.1% 96%  
409 0.9% 95%  
410 0.7% 94%  
411 1.0% 93%  
412 2% 92%  
413 3% 90%  
414 2% 88%  
415 1.5% 86%  
416 2% 84%  
417 4% 82%  
418 3% 78%  
419 2% 75%  
420 3% 73%  
421 3% 70%  
422 5% 67%  
423 5% 62%  
424 7% 58%  
425 6% 51% Median
426 3% 45%  
427 4% 42%  
428 3% 38%  
429 2% 36%  
430 4% 34%  
431 4% 29%  
432 5% 26%  
433 3% 21%  
434 2% 18%  
435 3% 15%  
436 2% 13%  
437 2% 11%  
438 2% 10%  
439 1.2% 7%  
440 1.0% 6%  
441 1.2% 5%  
442 0.5% 4%  
443 0.9% 3%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.3% 1.5%  
447 0.3% 1.1%  
448 0.2% 0.9%  
449 0.2% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.7% Majority
356 0.2% 99.5%  
357 0.2% 99.3%  
358 0.1% 99.1%  
359 0.1% 99.0%  
360 0.3% 98.8%  
361 0.9% 98%  
362 1.4% 98%  
363 0.5% 96%  
364 0.4% 96%  
365 0.6% 95%  
366 2% 95%  
367 2% 93%  
368 3% 91%  
369 2% 88%  
370 1.1% 87%  
371 1.4% 86%  
372 4% 84%  
373 5% 80%  
374 3% 75%  
375 4% 73%  
376 1.0% 69%  
377 3% 68%  
378 4% 65%  
379 8% 61%  
380 7% 53% Median
381 2% 46%  
382 2% 44%  
383 4% 42%  
384 4% 38%  
385 5% 34%  
386 3% 29%  
387 4% 26%  
388 1.0% 22%  
389 2% 21%  
390 3% 19%  
391 4% 16%  
392 2% 12%  
393 1.3% 11%  
394 0.5% 9%  
395 0.6% 9%  
396 2% 8%  
397 0.9% 7%  
398 1.0% 6%  
399 0.3% 5%  
400 0.3% 4%  
401 0.4% 4%  
402 0.3% 4%  
403 0.3% 3%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.3% 3%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.2% 2%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.1% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.5%  
412 0.2% 1.3%  
413 0.1% 1.1%  
414 0.1% 0.9%  
415 0.1% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.8%  
417 0.1% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.2% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0.2% 99.3%  
358 0.3% 99.2%  
359 0.2% 98.9%  
360 0.5% 98.6%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.8% 98%  
363 1.0% 97%  
364 0.8% 96%  
365 1.1% 95%  
366 1.1% 94%  
367 1.1% 93%  
368 2% 92%  
369 3% 90%  
370 2% 87%  
371 2% 85%  
372 5% 83%  
373 4% 78%  
374 2% 74%  
375 2% 72%  
376 5% 69%  
377 3% 65%  
378 4% 62%  
379 8% 58% Median
380 3% 50%  
381 4% 47%  
382 3% 42%  
383 3% 39%  
384 3% 36%  
385 3% 33%  
386 3% 30%  
387 3% 27%  
388 3% 24%  
389 3% 21%  
390 2% 18%  
391 3% 16%  
392 2% 13%  
393 0.6% 11%  
394 2% 11%  
395 2% 9%  
396 0.7% 7%  
397 1.1% 7%  
398 1.0% 6%  
399 0.4% 5% Last Result
400 0.5% 4%  
401 0.3% 4%  
402 0.4% 4%  
403 0.4% 3%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.1% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 0.1% 2%  
410 0.2% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.4%  
412 0.1% 1.2%  
413 0% 1.1%  
414 0% 1.0%  
415 0.1% 1.0%  
416 0.1% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.7%  
419 0% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0.2% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.1% 99.3%  
342 0% 99.2%  
343 0.1% 99.2%  
344 0.1% 99.1%  
345 0.1% 99.0%  
346 0.1% 98.8%  
347 0.1% 98.7%  
348 0.1% 98.6%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.3% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.7% 97%  
355 0.6% 96% Majority
356 0.9% 96%  
357 1.0% 95%  
358 2% 94%  
359 1.4% 92%  
360 3% 91%  
361 1.0% 88%  
362 3% 87%  
363 1.4% 84%  
364 2% 83%  
365 3% 81%  
366 2% 78%  
367 3% 75%  
368 5% 72%  
369 2% 68%  
370 6% 65%  
371 3% 59%  
372 5% 56% Median
373 3% 51%  
374 4% 48%  
375 4% 44%  
376 7% 41%  
377 4% 34%  
378 3% 30%  
379 2% 27%  
380 3% 25%  
381 4% 22%  
382 2% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 12%  
386 2% 10%  
387 2% 8%  
388 0.9% 7%  
389 2% 6%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.4%  
396 0.2% 1.1%  
397 0.3% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.6%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.6%  
312 0.3% 99.4%  
313 0.2% 99.1%  
314 0.2% 98.9%  
315 0.4% 98.6%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.5% 97%  
319 0.9% 97%  
320 2% 96%  
321 0.9% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 2% 88%  
326 3% 86%  
327 2% 84%  
328 4% 82%  
329 3% 78%  
330 2% 75%  
331 3% 73%  
332 4% 70%  
333 7% 66%  
334 4% 59%  
335 4% 56%  
336 3% 52% Median
337 5% 49%  
338 3% 44%  
339 6% 41%  
340 2% 35%  
341 5% 32%  
342 3% 28%  
343 2% 25%  
344 3% 22%  
345 2% 19%  
346 1.4% 17%  
347 3% 16%  
348 1.0% 13%  
349 3% 12%  
350 1.4% 9%  
351 2% 8%  
352 1.0% 6%  
353 0.9% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.7% 4% Majority
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.5% 3%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.1% 2%  
362 0.1% 1.4%  
363 0.1% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.0%  
366 0.1% 0.9%  
367 0% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.8%  
369 0.2% 0.7%  
370 0.2% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.2% 99.7%  
304 0.3% 99.5%  
305 0.2% 99.2%  
306 0.1% 99.0%  
307 0.1% 98.9%  
308 0.7% 98.8%  
309 0.4% 98%  
310 0.9% 98%  
311 0.5% 97%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 0.7% 96%  
314 2% 95%  
315 5% 94%  
316 2% 89%  
317 0.7% 87%  
318 2% 86%  
319 4% 85%  
320 3% 81%  
321 2% 77%  
322 2% 75%  
323 0.8% 73%  
324 1.2% 72%  
325 7% 71%  
326 7% 63%  
327 3% 56% Median
328 2% 53%  
329 3% 51%  
330 6% 48%  
331 9% 42%  
332 4% 33%  
333 1.4% 29%  
334 2% 28%  
335 1.5% 26%  
336 3% 25%  
337 4% 22%  
338 2% 17%  
339 0.5% 15%  
340 1.0% 15% Last Result
341 2% 14%  
342 3% 12%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.8% 7%  
345 0.6% 6%  
346 0.7% 5%  
347 0.8% 5%  
348 0.6% 4%  
349 0.2% 3%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 0.2% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.1% 2%  
355 0.1% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.1%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0% 0.6%  
360 0% 0.6%  
361 0% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.2% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.2%  
279 0.1% 99.0%  
280 0.1% 99.0%  
281 0.1% 98.9%  
282 0.2% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0.2% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.5% 97%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.3% 96%  
295 0.8% 96%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 1.3% 94%  
298 0.6% 93%  
299 0.6% 92%  
300 2% 92% Last Result
301 2% 90%  
302 2% 88%  
303 1.0% 86%  
304 3% 85%  
305 2% 82%  
306 3% 80%  
307 3% 77%  
308 5% 74%  
309 3% 69%  
310 3% 66%  
311 3% 63%  
312 5% 60%  
313 6% 54%  
314 3% 48% Median
315 3% 45%  
316 2% 42%  
317 3% 40%  
318 2% 36%  
319 6% 34%  
320 4% 28%  
321 3% 24%  
322 2% 21%  
323 5% 19%  
324 1.1% 14%  
325 3% 13%  
326 1.3% 10%  
327 2% 9%  
328 1.2% 7%  
329 0.9% 6%  
330 1.1% 5%  
331 0.9% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.3% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0.1% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.7%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.4%  
255 0% 99.4%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.3%  
258 0.1% 99.1%  
259 0.1% 98.9%  
260 0.1% 98.9%  
261 0.1% 98.8%  
262 0.1% 98.7%  
263 0.2% 98.7%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.5% 96%  
274 0.9% 96%  
275 0.9% 95%  
276 2% 94%  
277 1.3% 92%  
278 2% 91%  
279 2% 89%  
280 1.3% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 2% 84%  
283 4% 82%  
284 6% 78%  
285 4% 72%  
286 3% 68%  
287 4% 65%  
288 3% 61%  
289 4% 59%  
290 9% 55% Median
291 4% 46%  
292 5% 43%  
293 4% 38%  
294 2% 34%  
295 2% 32%  
296 4% 30%  
297 3% 26%  
298 2% 23%  
299 3% 21%  
300 4% 18%  
301 2% 14%  
302 1.5% 12%  
303 0.9% 11%  
304 1.3% 10%  
305 2% 9%  
306 1.4% 7%  
307 1.4% 6%  
308 0.6% 4%  
309 0.8% 4%  
310 0.4% 3%  
311 0.4% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.3%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.2% 99.6%  
246 0.4% 99.4%  
247 0.4% 99.0%  
248 0.4% 98.7%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.6% 98%  
252 0.7% 97%  
253 3% 96%  
254 0.8% 93%  
255 2% 93%  
256 0.8% 91%  
257 1.0% 90%  
258 0.7% 89%  
259 3% 88%  
260 3% 85%  
261 4% 82%  
262 2% 78%  
263 3% 76%  
264 2% 73%  
265 2% 71%  
266 5% 69%  
267 5% 64%  
268 7% 59%  
269 5% 52% Median
270 4% 47%  
271 2% 43%  
272 2% 41%  
273 2% 39%  
274 8% 37%  
275 4% 29%  
276 6% 25%  
277 2% 19%  
278 2% 17%  
279 1.0% 15%  
280 3% 14%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 9%  
283 2% 7%  
284 0.5% 5%  
285 0.6% 5%  
286 0.3% 4%  
287 0.4% 4%  
288 0.4% 3%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.2% 1.3%  
293 0.1% 1.1%  
294 0.1% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 1.0%  
296 0.1% 0.8%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.8%  
180 0.3% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.3%  
182 0.8% 99.1%  
183 0.4% 98%  
184 0.7% 98%  
185 1.4% 97%  
186 0.6% 96%  
187 1.2% 95%  
188 1.0% 94%  
189 0.7% 93%  
190 1.2% 92%  
191 1.0% 91%  
192 2% 90%  
193 2% 88%  
194 3% 86%  
195 5% 84%  
196 4% 78%  
197 7% 75%  
198 8% 68%  
199 7% 60%  
200 7% 53%  
201 4% 46% Median
202 4% 42%  
203 2% 38%  
204 2% 36%  
205 2% 34%  
206 1.2% 32%  
207 3% 30%  
208 3% 28%  
209 2% 25%  
210 4% 23%  
211 2% 19%  
212 3% 16%  
213 4% 13%  
214 1.5% 9%  
215 2% 8%  
216 1.2% 5%  
217 1.3% 4%  
218 0.3% 3%  
219 0.3% 3%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.2% 2%  
222 0.1% 2% Last Result
223 0.3% 1.4%  
224 0.2% 1.1%  
225 0.2% 1.0%  
226 0.2% 0.8%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.6%  
135 0.1% 99.6%  
136 0.1% 99.6%  
137 0.1% 99.5%  
138 0.3% 99.3%  
139 0.2% 99.0%  
140 0.1% 98.8%  
141 0.2% 98.7%  
142 0.3% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.1% 98%  
147 0.1% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0.1% 98%  
150 0.2% 98%  
151 0.1% 97%  
152 0.1% 97%  
153 0.1% 97%  
154 0.1% 97%  
155 0.1% 97%  
156 0.1% 97%  
157 0.1% 97%  
158 0.1% 97%  
159 0.2% 97%  
160 0.2% 96%  
161 0.2% 96%  
162 0.8% 96%  
163 0.8% 95%  
164 0.8% 94%  
165 0.6% 94%  
166 0.7% 93%  
167 2% 92%  
168 2% 90%  
169 2% 88%  
170 2% 86%  
171 1.4% 84%  
172 3% 83%  
173 5% 80%  
174 4% 75%  
175 2% 71%  
176 3% 69%  
177 4% 65%  
178 7% 61%  
179 10% 54% Median
180 4% 45%  
181 3% 40%  
182 3% 38%  
183 5% 35%  
184 5% 30%  
185 3% 24%  
186 2% 22%  
187 1.1% 19%  
188 3% 18%  
189 3% 15%  
190 3% 13%  
191 3% 10%  
192 1.1% 7%  
193 1.3% 6%  
194 0.9% 5%  
195 1.0% 4%  
196 0.6% 3%  
197 0.6% 2%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.3% 1.2%  
200 0.3% 0.9%  
201 0.2% 0.6%  
202 0.1% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations