Opinion Poll by Forsa, 30 March–3 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.8–31.5% 28.4–31.9% 28.1–32.2% 27.4–32.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.6–18.5% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.5–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 219–240 217–243 214–246 208–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 121–139 119–141 117–144 113–148
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 122 114–130 112–133 110–135 106–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 62–75 60–77 59–79 56–82
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 49–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–59 46–60 44–62 42–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–52 39–53 0–54 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0.1% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.3% 99.7%  
209 0.1% 99.5%  
210 0.2% 99.4%  
211 0.6% 99.2%  
212 0.2% 98.6%  
213 0.5% 98%  
214 1.3% 98%  
215 0.3% 97%  
216 0.9% 96%  
217 3% 95%  
218 0.3% 92%  
219 3% 92%  
220 3% 89%  
221 0.6% 86%  
222 4% 85%  
223 6% 81%  
224 1.5% 75%  
225 6% 74%  
226 4% 67%  
227 1.0% 64%  
228 11% 63%  
229 4% 51% Median
230 3% 47%  
231 5% 44%  
232 4% 39%  
233 1.1% 35%  
234 9% 34%  
235 3% 24%  
236 3% 21%  
237 4% 18%  
238 1.3% 14%  
239 1.4% 13%  
240 3% 11%  
241 2% 9%  
242 0.5% 7%  
243 2% 6%  
244 0.8% 4%  
245 0.5% 4%  
246 0.9% 3%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.2% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.5% 1.4%  
251 0.1% 0.9%  
252 0.2% 0.7%  
253 0.1% 0.6%  
254 0.1% 0.5%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0.1% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.5% 99.0%  
116 0.7% 98.5%  
117 0.7% 98%  
118 1.0% 97%  
119 1.3% 96%  
120 2% 95%  
121 3% 93%  
122 2% 89%  
123 5% 88%  
124 4% 83%  
125 5% 79%  
126 6% 73%  
127 6% 67%  
128 6% 61%  
129 8% 55% Median
130 4% 48%  
131 7% 44%  
132 6% 37%  
133 4% 31%  
134 4% 27%  
135 3% 23%  
136 4% 20%  
137 3% 15%  
138 2% 13%  
139 2% 11%  
140 2% 8%  
141 2% 6%  
142 0.7% 4%  
143 0.9% 4%  
144 0.8% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.5% 1.3%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.6%  
107 0.3% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.0%  
109 0.8% 98.6%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 1.3% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 93%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 4% 86%  
117 5% 82%  
118 5% 77%  
119 4% 73%  
120 9% 68%  
121 6% 59%  
122 6% 54% Median
123 8% 47%  
124 4% 40%  
125 7% 36%  
126 5% 29%  
127 5% 24%  
128 4% 19%  
129 2% 15%  
130 3% 12%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.0% 4%  
135 0.9% 3%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.3% 1.2%  
139 0.3% 0.8%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.4%  
58 1.0% 99.0%  
59 1.5% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 4% 91%  
63 4% 87%  
64 5% 84%  
65 4% 78%  
66 8% 74%  
67 6% 66%  
68 7% 60%  
69 9% 53% Median
70 6% 44%  
71 9% 39%  
72 5% 29%  
73 6% 24%  
74 6% 18%  
75 3% 12%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.3% 4%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 1.3% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 3% 92%  
56 4% 89%  
57 9% 86%  
58 8% 77%  
59 6% 69%  
60 11% 63%  
61 10% 52% Median
62 8% 42%  
63 8% 35%  
64 6% 27%  
65 5% 21%  
66 3% 15%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.1% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 5% 92%  
48 5% 87%  
49 5% 82%  
50 6% 77%  
51 8% 71%  
52 13% 63%  
53 7% 50% Median
54 7% 44%  
55 9% 36%  
56 6% 27%  
57 5% 20%  
58 5% 16%  
59 3% 10%  
60 2% 7%  
61 1.2% 5%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0.5% 97%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 94%  
41 6% 92%  
42 7% 86%  
43 6% 79%  
44 8% 73%  
45 10% 66%  
46 7% 56% Median
47 9% 49%  
48 11% 40%  
49 11% 29%  
50 4% 18%  
51 4% 15%  
52 4% 10%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.3%  
57 0.2% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 524–543 521–547 519–563 514–575
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 457 100% 446–468 443–470 439–473 431–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 451 100% 439–460 435–463 431–466 423–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 411 100% 400–423 397–427 395–433 390–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 404 100% 393–415 390–420 387–426 382–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 397 100% 385–407 381–410 377–412 367–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 33% 339–362 336–367 334–371 329–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0.1% 316–338 312–342 306–344 293–350
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 312 0% 302–324 299–328 297–332 291–342
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 287–309 281–311 275–313 263–319
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 251 0% 241–263 239–265 237–270 231–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 182–201 179–204 176–207 171–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 166–185 161–188 146–190 131–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.8%  
513 0.1% 99.7%  
514 0.2% 99.6%  
515 0.2% 99.4%  
516 0.3% 99.2%  
517 0.4% 98.9%  
518 0.5% 98.5%  
519 0.9% 98%  
520 1.3% 97%  
521 2% 96%  
522 0.8% 94%  
523 2% 93%  
524 2% 91%  
525 3% 89%  
526 3% 86%  
527 3% 84%  
528 3% 81%  
529 7% 77%  
530 5% 71%  
531 6% 65%  
532 4% 60%  
533 6% 56% Median
534 6% 50%  
535 4% 44%  
536 6% 39%  
537 5% 33%  
538 4% 28%  
539 3% 24%  
540 4% 21%  
541 3% 17%  
542 2% 14%  
543 3% 12%  
544 2% 10%  
545 1.0% 8%  
546 1.2% 7%  
547 1.0% 6%  
548 0.6% 5%  
549 0.3% 4%  
550 0.3% 4%  
551 0.4% 4%  
552 0.1% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.1% 3%  
555 0.1% 3%  
556 0% 3%  
557 0% 3%  
558 0% 3%  
559 0.1% 3%  
560 0% 3%  
561 0.1% 3%  
562 0% 3%  
563 0.2% 3%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.2% 2%  
566 0.1% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.1% 2%  
569 0.5% 2%  
570 0.3% 1.4%  
571 0% 1.1%  
572 0% 1.1%  
573 0.3% 1.0%  
574 0.1% 0.8%  
575 0.3% 0.7%  
576 0.1% 0.4%  
577 0% 0.4%  
578 0% 0.3%  
579 0% 0.3%  
580 0% 0.2%  
581 0% 0.2%  
582 0.1% 0.2%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0.1%  
586 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.2% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0% 99.6%  
431 0.2% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.3%  
433 0.2% 99.3%  
434 0.1% 99.1%  
435 0.4% 99.0%  
436 0.2% 98.6%  
437 0.3% 98%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.4% 98%  
440 0.6% 97%  
441 0.6% 97%  
442 0.9% 96%  
443 1.2% 95%  
444 0.9% 94%  
445 2% 93%  
446 1.0% 91%  
447 2% 90%  
448 2% 88%  
449 2% 86%  
450 3% 84%  
451 3% 81%  
452 4% 78%  
453 4% 74%  
454 6% 70%  
455 5% 64%  
456 6% 59%  
457 5% 53% Median
458 5% 47%  
459 4% 42%  
460 4% 39%  
461 5% 34%  
462 4% 29%  
463 4% 25%  
464 4% 22%  
465 2% 18%  
466 3% 16%  
467 2% 13%  
468 3% 11%  
469 2% 8%  
470 1.3% 6%  
471 1.3% 5%  
472 0.8% 4%  
473 0.5% 3%  
474 0.6% 2%  
475 0.3% 2%  
476 0.4% 1.4%  
477 0.2% 1.0%  
478 0.2% 0.8%  
479 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.6%  
424 0.1% 99.5%  
425 0.1% 99.4%  
426 0.2% 99.3%  
427 0.2% 99.2%  
428 0.3% 98.9%  
429 0.3% 98.6%  
430 0.3% 98%  
431 0.6% 98%  
432 0.6% 97%  
433 0.6% 97%  
434 0.6% 96%  
435 0.9% 96%  
436 1.4% 95%  
437 1.1% 93%  
438 1.5% 92%  
439 3% 91%  
440 2% 88%  
441 2% 86%  
442 3% 84%  
443 4% 81%  
444 4% 78%  
445 3% 74%  
446 3% 71%  
447 3% 67%  
448 5% 64%  
449 4% 59%  
450 5% 55% Median
451 8% 50%  
452 5% 42%  
453 5% 37%  
454 4% 32%  
455 4% 28%  
456 5% 24%  
457 3% 19%  
458 3% 16%  
459 3% 13%  
460 3% 11%  
461 0.9% 8%  
462 2% 7%  
463 1.1% 6%  
464 1.3% 4%  
465 0.5% 3%  
466 0.7% 3%  
467 0.7% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.2%  
469 0.2% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0.1% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.7%  
390 0.1% 99.6%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.4% 99.2%  
393 0.4% 98.9%  
394 0.6% 98%  
395 1.0% 98%  
396 0.6% 97%  
397 2% 96%  
398 2% 95%  
399 2% 93% Last Result
400 2% 92%  
401 2% 90%  
402 2% 88%  
403 3% 86%  
404 2% 83%  
405 4% 81%  
406 5% 77%  
407 3% 72%  
408 6% 69%  
409 4% 63%  
410 4% 59%  
411 6% 55% Median
412 4% 49%  
413 4% 45%  
414 6% 40%  
415 4% 35%  
416 3% 31%  
417 3% 28%  
418 3% 25%  
419 3% 22%  
420 3% 19%  
421 2% 16%  
422 2% 14%  
423 3% 12%  
424 1.0% 9%  
425 0.9% 8%  
426 0.9% 7%  
427 1.0% 6%  
428 0.4% 5%  
429 0.7% 4%  
430 0.4% 4%  
431 0.4% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.1% 2%  
437 0.1% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.1% 1.5%  
440 0.2% 1.4%  
441 0.2% 1.2%  
442 0.1% 1.0%  
443 0% 0.9%  
444 0.1% 0.9%  
445 0.2% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.3% 99.5%  
384 0.3% 99.2%  
385 0.6% 98.9%  
386 0.4% 98%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 1.2% 97%  
389 0.9% 96%  
390 0.6% 95%  
391 2% 95%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 92%  
394 2% 90%  
395 2% 88%  
396 3% 86%  
397 4% 83%  
398 4% 79%  
399 2% 75%  
400 4% 73%  
401 7% 69%  
402 3% 63%  
403 8% 60%  
404 5% 52% Median
405 4% 47%  
406 7% 43%  
407 4% 36%  
408 3% 32%  
409 5% 29%  
410 2% 24%  
411 3% 22%  
412 2% 19%  
413 2% 16%  
414 1.4% 14%  
415 3% 12%  
416 1.4% 10%  
417 1.2% 8%  
418 1.1% 7%  
419 0.8% 6%  
420 0.5% 5%  
421 0.7% 5%  
422 0.4% 4%  
423 0.4% 4%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 0.2% 3%  
426 0.2% 3%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.1% 2%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.2% 1.3%  
434 0% 1.2%  
435 0% 1.1%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.2% 0.9%  
438 0.1% 0.7%  
439 0% 0.7%  
440 0.3% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0.1% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.3% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.4%  
369 0.1% 99.3%  
370 0.2% 99.2%  
371 0.1% 99.0%  
372 0.3% 98.9%  
373 0.1% 98.7%  
374 0.2% 98.5%  
375 0.2% 98%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 0.6% 97%  
379 0.5% 97%  
380 0.7% 96%  
381 1.5% 95%  
382 0.7% 94%  
383 1.4% 93%  
384 1.4% 92%  
385 2% 91%  
386 2% 89%  
387 3% 87%  
388 3% 84%  
389 2% 82%  
390 3% 80%  
391 3% 76%  
392 5% 73%  
393 4% 68%  
394 5% 64%  
395 5% 60%  
396 4% 55%  
397 4% 50% Median
398 4% 46%  
399 6% 42%  
400 4% 36%  
401 5% 32%  
402 4% 27%  
403 3% 23%  
404 5% 20%  
405 2% 16%  
406 2% 13%  
407 2% 11%  
408 2% 9%  
409 1.3% 7%  
410 1.3% 6%  
411 0.9% 4%  
412 0.9% 3%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.3% 1.5%  
416 0.4% 1.2%  
417 0.3% 0.9%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.2% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.5%  
330 0.3% 99.4%  
331 0.4% 99.1%  
332 0.4% 98.7%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 1.1% 97%  
336 1.5% 96%  
337 2% 95%  
338 1.4% 93%  
339 2% 92%  
340 1.2% 89% Last Result
341 3% 88%  
342 2% 85%  
343 3% 83%  
344 3% 80%  
345 3% 77%  
346 5% 74%  
347 6% 69%  
348 4% 63%  
349 2% 59%  
350 7% 58%  
351 5% 51% Median
352 4% 46%  
353 4% 42%  
354 5% 38%  
355 4% 33% Majority
356 2% 29%  
357 4% 26%  
358 3% 22%  
359 4% 19%  
360 2% 16%  
361 2% 14%  
362 2% 12%  
363 1.2% 10%  
364 1.0% 8%  
365 1.1% 7%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 1.0% 5%  
368 0.7% 4%  
369 0.4% 4%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.3% 3%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.1% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.1% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.5%  
378 0.3% 1.2%  
379 0.1% 1.0%  
380 0.1% 0.9%  
381 0.3% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0.1% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.1% 99.1%  
297 0.1% 99.0%  
298 0.1% 98.9%  
299 0.1% 98.8%  
300 0.1% 98.7%  
301 0.1% 98.6%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.5% 98%  
307 0.3% 97%  
308 0.4% 97%  
309 0.5% 97%  
310 0.4% 96%  
311 0.3% 96%  
312 0.7% 95%  
313 0.9% 95%  
314 1.1% 94%  
315 1.4% 93%  
316 1.3% 91%  
317 2% 90%  
318 2% 88%  
319 3% 86%  
320 2% 83%  
321 4% 82%  
322 3% 78%  
323 3% 75%  
324 4% 72%  
325 3% 67%  
326 6% 64% Last Result
327 5% 58%  
328 8% 54% Median
329 6% 46%  
330 4% 40%  
331 6% 36%  
332 4% 31%  
333 3% 27%  
334 3% 25%  
335 3% 21%  
336 3% 18%  
337 3% 15%  
338 2% 12%  
339 2% 10%  
340 0.8% 7%  
341 1.4% 6%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.9% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.3%  
348 0.3% 1.1%  
349 0.2% 0.8%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.3% 99.4%  
293 0.4% 99.1%  
294 0.3% 98.8%  
295 0.6% 98.5%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.9% 98%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 1.3% 96%  
300 1.3% 94%  
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 2% 89%  
304 2% 87%  
305 5% 84%  
306 3% 80%  
307 4% 77%  
308 5% 73%  
309 4% 68%  
310 6% 64%  
311 4% 58%  
312 4% 54% Median
313 4% 50%  
314 5% 45%  
315 5% 40%  
316 4% 36%  
317 5% 32%  
318 3% 27%  
319 3% 24%  
320 2% 20%  
321 3% 18%  
322 3% 16%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 1.4% 9%  
326 1.4% 8%  
327 0.7% 7%  
328 1.5% 6%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 0.5% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.5%  
337 0.3% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.3% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0.1% 100%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.6%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.4% 99.6%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0% 98.8%  
268 0% 98.7%  
269 0.1% 98.7%  
270 0.1% 98.6%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.1% 97%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.8% 96%  
281 0.9% 96%  
282 0.7% 95%  
283 1.2% 94%  
284 0.8% 93%  
285 0.6% 92%  
286 0.6% 91%  
287 3% 91%  
288 3% 88%  
289 5% 85%  
290 5% 80%  
291 1.5% 75%  
292 2% 73%  
293 2% 71%  
294 3% 70%  
295 2% 66%  
296 6% 64%  
297 13% 58% Median
298 4% 45%  
299 2% 41%  
300 2% 39% Last Result
301 4% 37%  
302 4% 33%  
303 5% 29%  
304 4% 24%  
305 3% 20%  
306 4% 17%  
307 1.0% 13%  
308 0.7% 12%  
309 2% 11%  
310 3% 9%  
311 2% 6%  
312 1.0% 4%  
313 0.7% 3%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.4% 1.2%  
319 0.4% 0.8%  
320 0.3% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.2% 99.8%  
231 0.2% 99.6%  
232 0.3% 99.4%  
233 0.3% 99.0%  
234 0.3% 98.8%  
235 0.3% 98%  
236 0.5% 98%  
237 1.2% 98%  
238 1.2% 96%  
239 2% 95%  
240 3% 93%  
241 1.1% 90%  
242 2% 89%  
243 2% 87%  
244 2% 85%  
245 4% 83%  
246 5% 79%  
247 4% 75%  
248 6% 71%  
249 7% 64%  
250 5% 58%  
251 3% 53% Median
252 3% 50%  
253 4% 47%  
254 6% 43%  
255 4% 37%  
256 6% 33%  
257 6% 27%  
258 2% 22%  
259 2% 20%  
260 2% 17%  
261 4% 16%  
262 2% 12%  
263 3% 10%  
264 2% 8%  
265 1.2% 6%  
266 0.6% 5%  
267 0.5% 4%  
268 0.4% 4%  
269 0.4% 3%  
270 0.5% 3%  
271 0.6% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.5% 1.5%  
274 0.1% 1.0%  
275 0.1% 0.9%  
276 0.1% 0.8%  
277 0.1% 0.7%  
278 0.3% 0.7%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.2% 99.7%  
172 0.3% 99.5%  
173 0.2% 99.1%  
174 0.4% 98.9%  
175 0.6% 98.5%  
176 0.8% 98%  
177 1.2% 97%  
178 0.7% 96%  
179 1.3% 95%  
180 0.8% 94%  
181 2% 93%  
182 3% 91%  
183 2% 88%  
184 3% 86%  
185 5% 82%  
186 6% 77%  
187 10% 71%  
188 6% 61%  
189 6% 55%  
190 5% 49% Median
191 3% 44%  
192 5% 41%  
193 4% 36%  
194 3% 33%  
195 4% 30%  
196 3% 26%  
197 3% 23%  
198 3% 20%  
199 4% 17%  
200 2% 14%  
201 2% 11%  
202 3% 9%  
203 1.1% 6%  
204 1.0% 5%  
205 0.9% 4%  
206 0.5% 3%  
207 1.0% 3%  
208 0.5% 2%  
209 0.5% 2%  
210 0.3% 1.1%  
211 0.1% 0.7%  
212 0.1% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.5%  
215 0.1% 0.4%  
216 0% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.3% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.6%  
131 0% 99.5%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.1% 99.1%  
135 0.1% 99.0%  
136 0.1% 98.9%  
137 0.1% 98.8%  
138 0.4% 98.7%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0.1% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.3% 98%  
147 0% 97%  
148 0.1% 97%  
149 0% 97%  
150 0.1% 97%  
151 0% 97%  
152 0% 97%  
153 0.1% 97%  
154 0.1% 97%  
155 0.1% 97%  
156 0.2% 97%  
157 0.1% 97%  
158 0.5% 97%  
159 0.3% 96%  
160 0.4% 96%  
161 0.6% 96%  
162 0.5% 95%  
163 0.8% 94%  
164 1.3% 94%  
165 0.7% 92%  
166 3% 92%  
167 2% 88%  
168 3% 86%  
169 5% 83%  
170 3% 79%  
171 3% 76%  
172 9% 73%  
173 2% 64%  
174 10% 62%  
175 5% 52% Median
176 5% 47%  
177 7% 42%  
178 3% 35%  
179 3% 32%  
180 5% 29%  
181 2% 24%  
182 4% 22%  
183 4% 18%  
184 2% 14%  
185 4% 13%  
186 0.8% 9%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 6%  
189 0.7% 4%  
190 1.1% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.2%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations